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1. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JEWhen I see Mike Trout play, I often wonder what his career and level of fame would be if he had played for the Dodgers or Yankees instead of the Angels.
I feel like that kind of guy would be a fit for a lot of teams.
Now they need to attach a prospect to the remains of Josh Donaldson, and clear the IF for the young guys.
No snark intended, but if every new contract seems like an overpay, do we perhaps need to recalibrate the definition? I instinctively feel the way you do, that we continue to see the same front office impulsivity that we've seen since the advent of free agency, but perhaps there is so much money in the game -- more than we fans even imagine -- that the front offices are able to measure the cost-benefit of short-term success versus down-the-road wastage, and the calculus for these new deals "works". I'm not saying that I necessarily agree with the wisdom of paying players into their mid- and late-thirties, but I do allow for the possibility that their spending modelling is more sophisticated than mine.
Looking forward to hearing him get booed the first time he strikes out in a clutch moment.
I think that's a good point. Another way of looking at it would be that there are a few top teams who are spending up to what their revenue and ownership value/risk tolerance allows (NYY, NYM, LAD, SDP, PHI, HOU, probably a few others) and a few that have real revenue problems (probably just OAK and TB), while the rest of the owners have figured out that they can spend just enough to remain vaguely competitive and make a ton of money.
Aaron? No.
Arson Judge is a different story.
Count me in for the inevitable t-shirts!
Unless Aaron steps off a cliff in Year 2 of the contract, the Yankees are going to make money on this deal. Or, at the very least, lose less money on the deal than if they didn't sign Judge at all.
still something a little weird about this relationship, like that couple you always see fighting but the angry sex makes it all worth it.
for a while, anyway
I think it's probably something a long the lines that rich teams know they're overpaying in a pure "most optimal use of money" way, but thy're willing to overpay b/c it's the easiest way to improve a team quickly. There's also probably some agency problems between front office and owners, b/c of the need to win to stay employed. Brian Cashman could easily believe that the Yankees will win more games over the next 9 years by not signing Judge and spending elsewhere, but if he doesn't sign Judge, he won't be in charge for the last 5 of those years, so makes the deal anyway.
I must not be understanding you. What do you mean by this since we know large contracts like Judge received always involve ownership? Doesn't seem like these kinds of signings strictly reflect the baseball operations departments (to say nothing of the fact that Cashman specifically has a good relation with his bosses.)
Apparently, Jim took that as a challenge.
You've got a point, but three counterpoints:
- Winner's curse - every contract is an overpay, because the winner is whoever most badly misoverestimated the player's value.
- Merchandising - Judge is easily the most sellable player in the sport, they'll make a few million just from his jerseys.
- If inflation keeps raging, this may look cheap by 9 years from now.
By they way ... Jim, worst headline ever. I skipped right past this story last night. How about "Judge signs with Yankees."
Slightly surprised it's not 9/$355 or 10/$370 or something to keep the $40 M position player barrier in check. But no biggie.
Last I knew from a few years ago, merchandise revenues were split among the league (then the teams) and the players, with teams getting a greater cut for merchandise sold within their stadiums. No reason to think that arrangement has changed, so I’ll run with it.
What’s a jersey sell for? $100? Never bought one, never looked, so I have no idea. If $100, and the team gets (guessing) $20, that means a team would have to sell 50,000 jerseys in-stadium to make a million, or just over 600/game. If those numbers are anywhere near fair, it sounds like the key to merchandise revenue is just popular players/teams and the teams collectively reaping the money from all the sales everywhere (malls, standalone sporting goods stores, stadiums, general licensing deals, etc.).
But it’d be great if someone had better information on all this.
Sure the owners have input, but they're going to rely heavily on the front office. Hal Steinbrenner has no idea if Judge is worth $360M or $260M over the next 9 years. He certainly doesn't know enough to evaluate alternative uses of the money.
This is a basic problem in business; executives and owners are never perfectly aligned, because execs get fired over bad short-term results.
Good for baseball, good for NY(which as a Red Sox fan, I never really like to see), but they got it done, secured a great player and let the fanbase know they are keen to continue succeeding.
So he averages like 8 WAR per 650 PA type of thing? Heck, if you get 4000 PA(does that seem really light) over the next 9 seasons, figuring in some age decline, would NY be happy with around 45 WAR?
What do the projections suggest?
Unfortunately, kids need a new jersey every freaking year.
This piqued my curiosity, so I checked it real quick: The Yankees scored 807 runs this year, second most in baseball by a big margin over the third-place Braves. Judge personally created about 171 of them. If they lost Judge, being still the Yankees, we can assume they would replace him with someone who could create at least, say, 70 runs. So losing 100 runs drops the Yankees down to 12th place on the list, alongside the Rangers. Their Pythag record last year was 106-56; if we assume losing Judge would also make their run prevention 10 runs worse, it would drop their expected Pythag all the way to 100-62. Without considering that they would have spent that money on something more than just a single 110 OPS+ outfielder.
They would probably have been fine without him, in the near term.
Or move into it.
Probably easier to use something like Rbat here. Judge's bat was worth 80 runs above-average last year. Or he produced at about 50 per 650 PA over the last few years. If they replaced him with a good hitter (say Nimmo) that would be 25-30 Rbat. Nimmo's gonna get paid (looks like a lot more than I was expecting) but you'd probably also have another $15 M or so to spend which, in the abstract, should buy you another Rizzo-type player (Haniger say) which would be about 15 Rbat. So, even for the same (short-term) money, you're losing 10 to 40 runs of offense.
That's not the bargain it appears of course because that's where the 9-years comes in. Everybody knows Judge 2023 will probably be worth more than $40 ... and Nimmo 2023 will probably be worth more than whatever his AAV turns out to be. Guys like Rizzo, Haniger, Abreu are paid more in line with where $/WAR really is right now.
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