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Saturday, December 10, 2022

Kevin Kiermaier agrees to deal with Blue Jays (sources)

No info on dollars yet.

jimfurtado Posted: December 10, 2022 at 02:18 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: blue jays, kevin kiermaier

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   1. John Reynard Posted: December 10, 2022 at 07:08 PM (#6109083)
Since they were interested in Bellinger and signed Kiermaier we can say the Jays were willing to punt offense in CF to get good defense now I guess.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: December 11, 2022 at 12:22 AM (#6109094)
>$1, <$100,000,000
   3. Itchy Row Posted: December 12, 2022 at 01:08 AM (#6109132)
I was surprised Kiermaier was still around until I realized I’d combined his career with Franklin Gutiérrez’s.

Frankvin Kiergutmaierez is putting together a good career.
   4. Cooper Nielson Posted: December 12, 2022 at 05:01 AM (#6109136)
In 10 major-league seasons covering just 914 games, despite being an OF whose career bests (not in the same season) are 15 HR, 55 RBI, 62 runs, 25 doubles, 40 BB, and .276/.338/.450 (his career OPS+ is 98), Kevin Kiermaier has already generated 31.8 WAR.

That's 5.6 WAR per 162 games, rather astonishing.

He also has to be high on the list of Most Handsome Players of his era.
   5. BDC Posted: December 12, 2022 at 12:50 PM (#6109183)
This is such an unusual career that I was inspired to re-subscribe to "Stathead."

Basically, if you search for similar batters centered on Kiermaier in terms of career PA and OPS+, he is streets ahead of anyone else defensively. Even Franklin Gutierrez! The other vaguely comparable guys are catchers and Dansby Swanson.

Player               dWAR   PA OPSRbaser dWAR  HR   BA      Pos
Kevin Kiermaier      17.7 3351   98     16 17.7  82 .248   89H
/D7
John Stearns          8.1 3083  102     
-3  8.1  46 .260   2H35/7
Ed McFarland          7.2 3379  103     
-4  7.2  13 .275  2HO/354
Alex Avila            6.8 3638  101    
-20  6.8 105 .233 2H3D/145
Franklin Gutierrez    6.3 3335   96     10  6.3  97 .257    89H7D
Dansby Swanson        5.9 3387   95      4  5.9 102 .255      
*6H
Jack Farrell          5.9 3215   97      2  5.9  18 .250   
*46/5O
Shanty Hogan          4.8 3475  100     
-5  4.8  61 .295    2H/97
Bump Wills            4.5 3440   94     23  4.5  36 .266    
*4H/D
Sammy Hale            4.0 3200   93      5  4.0  30 .302 5H
/87496 


Provided by Stathead.com: View Stathead Tool Used
Generated 12/12/2022.

That's for complete careers. If you search through age 32, Stathead picks up Mark Ellis, who went on to have a considerably longer career, contributing defensively but dropping a bit as a hitter down to 92 career OPS+. Here they are through 32:

Player            dWAR   PA OPSRbaser dWAR
Kevin Kiermaier   17.7 3351   98     16 17.7
Mark Ellis        10.9 3571   97      6 10.9 


Provided by Stathead.com: View Stathead Tool Used
Generated 12/12/2022.
   6. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 12, 2022 at 02:15 PM (#6109204)

Basically, if you search for similar batters centered on Kiermaier in terms of career PA and OPS+, he is streets ahead of anyone else defensively. Even Franklin Gutierrez! The other vaguely comparable guys are catchers and Dansby Swanson.

It would be interesting to know what criterion kicks out the most similar players.

I assume Kiermaier is pretty unusual because anyone who is an average-ish hitter and as good as him defensively would normally get a lot more playing time. He has relatively few PAs because he started somewhat late (age 24), missed a lot of time (only one season with >130 games) and one season was shortened due to the pandemic.

Frequently injured players are usually not that great defensively. Maybe there are exceptions who happened to be much better or worse than Kiermaier offensively.
   7. catomi01 Posted: December 12, 2022 at 02:42 PM (#6109207)
For some reason, I half thought Kiermaier had already been on the Blue Jays...chalked it up to something I probably came across in a DMB or OOTP league along the way...then I realized that I've combined Kevin Pillar and Kiermaier in my own mind...they were at least similar-ish enough in their early careers (though Kiermaier is clearly better) that I don't feel too silly for that.
   8. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: December 12, 2022 at 03:34 PM (#6109219)
So much for the Rays getting a decent one team player. I thought he would stick.

   9. BDC Posted: December 12, 2022 at 04:13 PM (#6109229)
Interesting, Inge, you are surely right. As a result, Kiermaier (for similar age and PAs) tends to be ahead of comparable defenders as a hitter, and ahead of comparable hitters as a defender.

Maybe the closest comp through age 32 is Art Fletcher, Giants' shortstop from 110 years ago. Fletcher stayed in the lineup more consistently but was still frequently spelled, and didn't become a starter till he was 26.

Player            dWAR   PA   AB   BA  OBP  SLG OPS+  WAR oWAR dWAR    Pos
Kevin Kiermaier   17.7 3351 3053 .248 .308 .407   98 31.8 16.0 17.7 89H
/D7
Art Fletcher      17.7 3991 3639 .277 .323 .363  103 31.6 21.6 17.7  
*654H 


Provided by Stathead.com: View Stathead Tool Used
Generated 12/12/2022.

Fletcher had several good years left at that point (1917-18), but in decreasing playing time. "When his brother and his father both passed away in the spring of 1921, Art went back to Collinsville and sat out the entire 1921 season." I hope nothing like that happens with Kiermaier. Fletcher came back and played decent ball for the 1922 Phillies at age 37.
   10. Cooper Nielson Posted: December 12, 2022 at 08:55 PM (#6109292)
I wasted about an hour yesterday trying to find players similar to Kiermaier and wasn't satisfied with the results.

Dwayne Murphy was kinda similar, but a better hitter. Devon White, maybe, but he was more of a basestealer than Kiermaier. Lorenzo Cain isn't a bad comp, but was also a better hitter through age 32.

Other guys like Franklin Gutierrez, Kevin Pillar, Michael A. Taylor, etc., didn't measure up for some reason or other.
   11. Jaack Posted: December 12, 2022 at 10:20 PM (#6109297)
So much for the Rays getting a decent one team player. I thought he would stick.


I think the Rays are now back to Desmond Jennings as the greatest franchise lifer. I'm legitimately frightened to know who might be second if you exclude active players.
   12. SoSH U at work Posted: December 13, 2022 at 09:51 AM (#6109320)
I'm legitimately frightened to know who might be second if you exclude active players.


Jeff Niemann, since you always exclude active players.

Interestingly, Desmond Jennings is not the worst best one-team player. That honor, I believe, belongs to the Jays' Luis Leal.

   13. DCA Posted: December 13, 2022 at 10:41 AM (#6109329)
I think Vlad and Bichette (for the moment, at least) are ahead of Leal and couple other youngsters are close.

Today I learned that Dave Stieb started 4 games for the White Sox.
   14. SoSH U at work Posted: December 13, 2022 at 11:06 AM (#6109330)
I think Vlad and Bichette (for the moment, at least) are ahead of Leal and couple other youngsters are close.


And in the unlikely event any of these gentlemen play their entire careers with the Blue Jays and no one else, they can take their place at the top of the list. But history tells us that's extraordinarily unlikely to happen, which is why active players are ineligible.

Stieb would have been an outstanding representative, given he's the team's best player, had it not been for the brief stint in Chicago. Kelly Gruber would have at least lifted them out of the bottom spot were it not for 18 career-ending games in Anaheim.
   15. NaOH Posted: December 14, 2022 at 03:09 PM (#6109527)
Stieb would have been an outstanding representative, given he's the team's best player, had it not been for the brief stint in Chicago. Kelly Gruber would have at least lifted them out of the bottom spot were it not for 18 career-ending games in Anaheim.


John Stearns had two PAs with the Phillies before spending the remaining 10 years (3081 PA) of his career with the Mets.
   16. SoSH U at work Posted: December 14, 2022 at 03:19 PM (#6109528)
John Stearns had two PAs with the Phillies before spending the remaining 10 years (3081 PA) of his career with the Mets.


And he would have comfortably topped the Mets list until Wright came along.
   17. I Am Not a Number Posted: December 14, 2022 at 04:02 PM (#6109533)
You know what a masochist does? He reads the comments at MLB Trade Rumors. Man that's a cesspool of nonsense, the web-based equivalent of talk radio.

Don't be a masochist.
   18. NaOH Posted: December 14, 2022 at 04:07 PM (#6109534)
And [Stearns] would have comfortably topped the Mets list until Wright came along.

Knew that but forgot about it. Thanks.

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