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Thursday, January 19, 2012
Kilgore: The Nationals look like Prince Fielder favorites
Prince busters…going one step beyond?
And if the Rangers aren’t going to sign Fielder, the Nationals have to be considered the frontrunner now. Who else is there? Any team planning to make a stealth run at him probably would not have risked waiting until late January to make its move. The Brewers and Mariners have been on the periphery, but not as involved as the Nationals. You never know, but it looks like the Fielder sweepstakes is the Nationals’ to lose.
The process has been fascinating, and it looks for now as if the Nationals have played it perfectly. They held firm at their price for Fielder, and with the apparent (and stunning) relative lack of interest in one of baseball’s great sluggers, the market has come to them. They let agent Scott Boras dictate the terms of the Jayson Werth negotiations last winter. The Lerners struck back this time. Or at least that’s the appearance right now.
In the background of their discussions with Fielder lies the Nationals’ under-construction television deal with MASN. Like the Rangers, the Nationals could soon be expecting more cash from their rights fees. The details are few, but the stakes are explained in the story from today’s paper, with help from Chuck Greenberg, an architect of the Rangers’ massive TV deal.
The Nationals, experts say, can expect enough new revenue from their renegotiated rights fees to pay for Fielder’s potential contract – and then some. Andrew Zimbalist, an economics professor and sports business expert, said signing Fielder could enhance the Nationals’ argument for higher rights fees from MASN.
“I think it would,” Zimbalist said. “Somebody like Fielder offers the possibility of not only the team being more competitive, but generating excitement in his own right.”
Repoz
Posted: January 19, 2012 at 01:50 PM | 87 comment(s)
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1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 19, 2012 at 02:00 PM (#4040402)Even more than Jayson Werth did?
The Blue Jays have the motive, means, and opportunity. They'd best be on it.
The latest that springs to mind is Tex who I thought didn't sign until 1/13 on his last big contract.
Of course, there is Andre Dawson who had to go begging because of collusion. Again, from memory so maybe he signed earlier.
A-rod signed on 1/26 back in 2001.
Just found that
It took me seven seasons after the Nordiques left Quebec City to start cheering for the Montreal Canadiens.
This winter, I caught myself being extremely happy when the Blue Jays were mentionned in rumors about Darvish and Fielder. I start to feel like I care about that team, somehow. How is that even possible?
Well, for one thing, the Expos left Montreal seven seasons ago...
Well that $51 million lump sum for the Darvish posting has to hurt their ability to offer big contracts in the short term. Just because it doesn't count against the official payroll doesn't mean it didn't count against their resources.
Agree with your sentiment. With our ultra fast media cycle today, I feel that most reporting is regurgitating or recycling other's original stories. If people took 5 min and sat down and looked at the facts (like you did) they would see Texas can easily fit Prince in their payroll, even if it is questionable he will fit on the team bus in 2016.
1B - Fielder?
2B - Espinosa
3B - Zimmerman
SS - Desmond
LF - Morse
CF - Bernadina
RF - Werth
C - Flores
1B? - LaRoche
UT - DeRosa
OF - Cameron
OF - Micheals?
With that roster, they'd need to cut LaRoche for a middle infielder at minimum. Fortunately he's sucked pretty bad lately, unfortunately he's due $8mil. I think I'd rather have Morse at 1B and someone who can field in LF until Harper is ready.
There's a bunch, actually. Harveys has entionned Dawson and Raines, but, as he mentions, their cases are special because of collusion. Kirk Gibson was in a similar situation twice, when he re-signed with Detroit on January 8th in 1986 and when he signed with LA on Jan. 29 in 1988.
Under more normal circumstances, Vlad also signed with California of Anaheim in Los Angeles on January 14th (and with Baltimore on Feb. 18, although he was hardly a major free agen at that time).
Question: Why Expos superstars can't seem to find teams to sign with until late?
It's weird. Being a Jays fan my emotions as a fan have been kind of dulled these past 15 years. It's hard to experience highs or lows when you're not expecting anything to happen. Not getting Darvish when it seemed like maybe they would actually let me down in a way that the Jays haven't been in a position to do since...I don't know, losing to the Twins in he 91 ALCS?
I think the experience has clued me in to the fact that I may finally "believe" in the Jays again. I look forward to visceral heartbreak in the near future!
I assume it's because they are loath to leave such a great city and persist far too long in trying to work out a deal with the 'Spos even though they don't have the money.
I did forget about that. Is it one lump sum?
Well, that's nice, but no.
Dawson chose to play for much less than what he was offered by the Expos. That said, he did not want to play on turf any longer, was mad at the contract offer he had received from the Expos because it was lower than what he was paid the previous five seasons, and he wanted to play for the Cubs (go figure...).
It was reported Vlad signed for less with Anaheim than what he was offered by the Expos, then owned by MLB...
But there is clear evidence that a handful of players added more to the bottom line than their overall contribution to team wins and losses. Nobody disputed that McGwire (in his St. Louis years at any rate) for instance brought out extra fans aplenty. Or old Nolan Ryan (young Ryan really didn't add much to attendance).Is Fielder one of those guys? I'd be skeptical, but Zimbalist is essentially arguing that this is a special case -- pitching him to the broadcaster who will then be able to use him as a centerpiece to a marketing campaign.
Further, there is pretty strong evidence of a feedback loop between payroll and revenue. Most slash and burns have been revenue disasters, and there's pretty clear evidence that the casual fans use payroll as a proxy for team quality (and casual fans are critical to marginal revenue)
Payable before next Wednesday.
I figured I'd take a stab at diplomacy. As a native of Toronto I'm legally required to hate Montreal but it never hurts to be nice. (Though so long as you keep it between you, me, and this internet thing, the Habs are my 2nd favourite NHL team)
Though as a Nordiques fan I'm guessing you're not from Montreal? This time being sincere: I like Quebec City better anyway. It's easier to feel the history there.
Prince is still very much in play for Texas. Darvish signing didn't turn Prince into an impossibility, claims Texas was off the list is just poor journalism. Does Darvish signing increase the odds Texas gets Prince? No, it decreases them. But this is much different than saying Texas can't sign Prince.
Or a summary. I've seen many of the studies that have been done. Frankly I'm not impressed with most of that work. The research types haven't discovered a clear link yet, I can live with that fact. That won't change my position that there is indeed a link.
I am very skeptical of casual fans awareness of team payroll. Some casual fans probably know it, but I'd bet most do not. And most probably don't even know what direction it is trending. Unless we have different definitions of "casual" which we probably do.
*I do strongly agree that slash and burn model is a disaster for building up a loyal base of fans.
Primey!
no, your casual fan has very little clue about payroll other than that the Pirates are cheap and the Yankees spend gazillions. Your casual fan uses W-L record as their primary proxy for value, and player name recognition as their secondary- player name recognition is correlated to pay and hence payroll of course
Second -- and more importantly -- Fielder would be the first genuine top-tier black star a Washington MLB team has ever had, and the first in town since the glory days of the Homestead Grays. As the D.C. metro area has a large (and affluent) black population, this would be a major marketing boon to the Nationals, as the Redskins are spinning their wheels and the Wizards are a joke. (The Capitals don't fit in this equation because there are relatively few black hockey players and thus relatively few black fans, though I know plenty of black folks who enjoy hockey.)
I'm from Quebec City ans still live there. I don't like Montreal all that much myself, to be honest.
The Orioles are laying in the weeds.
Interstingly enough the two most prominent black players that pop into my head (Mike Grier and Anson Carter) both played in Washington (Carter twice!) Though on all two (three) occasions very briefly.
Statements like that are liable to get one jerseyed.
Not sure how to do that over TCP/IP yet.
After the Nordiques moved, I stopped like particular hockey teams. I may start following the Jets, but the Nordiques are still my favourite NHL team, and a pox on anyone who naysays that.
The Brewers will scoop him up. They offered him 6/120. And if that is off the table, which it probably is, they could probably still crush the 4/75 you posted. In fact, I bet the Yankees could too.
The Habs USED to be my #4 team behind the Nords and Whalers.
I actually have a Whalers Rick Ley jersey (I wanted Kevin Dineen, Geoff Sanderson or Randy Cunneyworth, but the Malaysian warehouse I was ordering from had Ley for $10 so I had no choice) and I've been on the market for a Nords one for a while. I was thinking either Mike Hough or Mike Ricci.
On the subject of black NHL players, I wonder if Georges Laraque could have pulled in any fans in Washington. He certainly was one of the easiest guys to root for in the history of sport.
Laraque
And if several teams get interested him in at 4/75 or more we get a bidding war and he is back up to 6 years 120 million.
Then he signs with the Yankees or someone else for 1/$20 or 1/$25 or something like that. Then next year signs with the Dodgers after they have been sold.
I'm guessing even Dan Duquette would beat that offer. I imagine Prince's floor is around 5 year, $110, which he may very well sign for. It's either take that or a 1 year contract with the Brewers.
Second -- and more importantly -- Fielder would be the first genuine top-tier black star a Washington MLB team has ever had, and the first in town since the glory days of the Homestead Grays. As the D.C. metro area has a large (and affluent) black population, this would be a major marketing boon to the Nationals, as the Redskins are spinning their wheels and the Wizards are a joke. (The Capitals don't fit in this equation because there are relatively few black hockey players and thus relatively few black fans, though I know plenty of black folks who enjoy hockey.)
I was in Philly and going to Phillies games back when their campaign was Rollins and Rolen and I sure don't remember a lot of black Phillies fans.
If he didn't, then nobody counts. He had just hit .396/.489/.743 with the Dodgers and signed a 2 year deal for over 40 million.
Race is a social construct, so how can you be sure?????
But would they? If Fielder turned up his nose at 6/120 and went elsewhere looking for more in a market that never materialized, how much does Bob Melvin feel compelled to offer a humbled Fielder after they already moved on to Plan B and signed Aramis Ramirez for 3 years at $12 million per?
I think the Yankees are more interested in getting their 2014 payroll under $189 million than they are in signing a fat man to a long term, expensive contract just to be their DH.
a) previous year's w/l record becomes insignificant
b) The standard error gets much smaller
In other words, factors that explain overall perception of the team's quality in rough order are:
Did they win the World Series last year?
What's the opening day payroll?
Did they make the playoffs last year?
Did they win the World Series the previous year?
Having said that, it does look like you can slightly improve the model by breaking out the biggest signing of each offseason and treating it separately. It's not a huge deal though.
Now both you and Lion are correct in that the casual fan won't know to the dollar what a team's payroll is, but they'll have a pretty clear notion of where the team ranks if they read the sports pages at all (because payroll always gets mentioned)
Now the standard error in my revenue model was around $10 million the last time I updated it. And best I can tell the biggest problem is tracking the long-term success of the team. IOW there is room for me to be wrong on specific points, but I don't think I'm hugely wrong. Feel free to demonstrate that I am. I'm always interested in this area.
A couple years ago I sat infront of this obnoxious family from Philly (redundant perhaps?) at a game in the SkyDome when Rolen was on the Jays. The son, who couldn't have been more than 14 and so 7 when Rolen left the Phillies, was spewing such apalling hatred for the guy I was actually getting uncomfortable. What precisely did that guy do to the fans of Philadelphia?
I don't know whether a 1 year deal could happen.
I used to go there for the Carnival. Haven't been there in years so it may have changed. Was great fun back when I went.
Philly fans hated Mike Schmidt because he struck out too much.
Hell, last summer I was talking baseball with my gf's father, who is a huge Phillies fan. He was shocked when I said Schmidt was probably the best 3b ever and starting arguing with me about it.
I loved watching Schmidt play when I lived in Philadelphia -- one of the smartest players I've ever seen, with a great baseball sense about him. Unfortunately, his approach to the game was too cerebral for many blue-collar Philly pholk.
This merely confirms my experience from the aforementioned game, watching every episode of It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia 18 times, and going through a couple Flyers/Leafs playoff series. People from Philadelphia are just ###### up.
The stat record doesn't show that, since he was already great in the mid 70's and continued that greatness to 1987, but when you get to his high level it takes a strong work ethic and desire to improve just to stay on top.
Whereas around here, you are going to get into arguments for putting "probably" in there...
But I thought he came with suspension baggage. Do I have my dates confused?
Edit:
Close. But he signed and then two months later it was announced he was in violation. So clubs did NOT know of any impending suspension.
They were also upset because he said that the Phillies weren't trying to win, back when they weren't trying to win.
Aren't you a Leafs fan, too? Get a Sundin Nords jersey!
I'm partial to "Scarborough" Wayne Simmonds, myself.
Well you have to respect a guy who survived the mean streets of Scarborough...I should know, I am one!
I think I'd feel too much overlap wearing a Sundin Nords jersey. In my mind Sundin is too much a Leaf by virtue of all the great years I saw him have in Toronto. I'd want my Nords jersey to be all Nord...so I'll go with Wendel Clark!
EDIT: I always forget Ricci was a Scarborough lad too. I think I'll have to go with him. Sure beats getting a Paul Bernardo jersey.
Who wouldn't be proud of the way Bobby Clarke assaulted Kharlamov in '72. That's a moment we can all cherish.
no, those are factors that CORRELATE with overall perception, not factors that "cause" or "explain"
it very may well be that correlation is EVIDENCE of causation, but it is not proof.
random example- there is (or rather was*) a rough correlation between vaccination rates and autism diagnoses, AND autism is typically fist diagnosed at around the children are in the midst of scheduled vaccinations, that that has lead many people to conclude that vaccination causes autism- however correlation is not causation, autism rates are the same for the vaccinated and the un-vaccinated, autism diagnoses among the un-vaccinated have risen at the same rate as among the vaccinated (*and the growth correlation has broken down in recent years as vaccination rates have actually fallen in many areas, but autism diagnoses have not)
back on subject, casual fans know whether or not their team won last year or in the recent past, they for the most part do not know payroll unless there has been a splashy signing or two, or a noticeable firesale, other than that they go by name recognition- which is going to correlate with payroll
I think there may also be an age divide, older phans had long since decided that he struck out too much and took too many pitches, and simply was not a winner (which is why they always lost in the playoffs to the Reds and the Dodgers), which was proven when the team finally got over the hump after importing WINNERS like Rose and Morgan... To many younger phans Schmidt was the best guy the teams of their youth...
Yankee fans had a similar generational split regarding Mickey Mantle, fans who grew up idolizing DiMagggio thought that Mantle was an inelegant strikeout prone underachiever bum... to the next generation of Yankee fans Mantle was very near;y god incarnate in a baseball uniform... (My older cousins worshipped Mantle, my uncle thought he was an overrated bum- and they literally fought over this)
I think it's time to bring your sarcasm detector in for its 50,000 post tune up.
I'm hours late on that one... The Chateau is nice and the old town is also really nice. My personal favourite is the St. Lawrence River seen from the top of the hill. Restaurants are fantastic (although quite pricy - although cheaper when you have lunch). If you come in summer and like music, we have a fantastic festival and the city is full of life 24hrs a day. We also have a nice little ballpark where the most professional of all independant teams plays (a stadium where Andre dawson, Warren Cromartie, Ellis Valentine, and Larry Parrish played before joining the Expos, btw).
Nahhh, that just means that he is now worn out, yesterday's diapers, and his rotund proportions and hidden health problems will catch up with him quite rapidly.
Ya can't pull fat.
It wasn't him it was Larry Bowa. Scott looked like he could be the next Mike Schmidt but then he got hurt and couldn't get right. Larry comes along and basically calls him a pvssy for not playing 162 games and hitting 40 bombs a year all while signing a team friendly long term deal to a team that wouldn't spend money until they got a new stadium on the taxpayer's dime. So Philly's inferioty complex comes out because quite naturally Scott doesn't want to play there anymore and so they boo him and make him the scapegoat much the same way that Bobby Abreu became the scapegoat after he signed the big contract and didn't turn into some flashy Sammy Sosa like clone.
NBC recently had a documentary on the summit series, and it was impressive how they still managed to portray the team that played beautiful, modern hockey as the bad guys* while oh yeah the 'good guys' only won because one of them took a two-handed slash to the other team's best player's knee.
The rest of it consisted of Esposito making himself sound like a drunken ass and Tretiak talking about how totally awesome he finds himself.
*even though they weren't wearing black uniforms, which the mighty ducks taught me all inherently evil hockey teams wear.
Seriously?
The Soviets were the bad guys. International Sports were a propaganda tool for a thoroughly evil regime.
That may be true, but it has nothing to do with the players on the ice or the games as they were played.
You had one team, who arragantly thought the other was not fit to play on the same ice, but played a game based around violence and physical strength, while the other played a game based on teamwork and speed.
When that first team realized they were too out of shape and played a game too tactically weak to keep up, they responded by gooning it up to slow the game down to their level. They then proceeded to whine in the press about their beer not being delivered, and threatned not to play if their girlfriends were not allowed to accompany them on the trip. When they went down 3 games to 1 and were faced with losing the series, the coach ordered a player to break the ankle of the best player on the opposing team, which he did. In the deciding game, when given a marginal penalty, another player swung his stick back like he was going to hit the referee in the face with it, though he pulled back. Their coach threw a chair on the ice, and the GM (basically) nearly got in a fight in the stands, that was "resolved" by a player going over the boards with his stick.
That may be an unchairitable view of the Canadian team, but if this were a sports movie, which team would be the bad guys?
*drops stick*
*drops gloves*
*takes off helmet*
Let's go!
I grew up in Scarborough as well, but my area wasn't really the same as the rest of Scarborough.
Damn straight! Nothing gets a Canuck riled up more than calling him uncharitable!
"Our streets aren't mean; our potholes are killers"!
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