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Sunday, June 16, 2019

Letting teams trade picks is MLB Draft’s path out of obscurity

I’m not buying his argument interest in the draft increasing because of pick trading.

The benefits of interest — perhaps being able to sell the draft to ESPN or DAZN because interest would rise — would make the risk of loopholes worth facing. Perhaps MLB and the union could partner on a sale of the TV rights with the union, say, being able to direct the money toward better pensions as a reason to accept hard slots in the draft.

Jim Furtado Posted: June 16, 2019 at 10:47 AM | 25 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: amateur draft

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   1. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: June 16, 2019 at 11:07 AM (#5852475)
There are two reasons the MLB draft isn't watched as much as its NFL and NBA counterparts. First, the players aren't household names; college baseball's audience is vanishingly small compared to college football and basketball, and that's not to mention the high schoolers who make up half of the draft. And second, in the NBA and NFL, your top picks are expected to contribute to next year's team; in MLB, you can expect significant development time in the minor leagues even for high first round picks, and quite a few early round picks will never play for the major league team at all.

I don't see any way for the MLB draft to overcome those structural disadvantages. But I also don't think this is really a problem for the sport.
   2. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 16, 2019 at 11:12 AM (#5852479)
I'm for the trading of draft picks, but Eric hits the nail on the head as to why the MLB draft will never be like the NBA or NFL drafts.
   3. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 16, 2019 at 11:15 AM (#5852480)
Nope, the fear is that a la Eli Manning, a player/agent will state the player will not go to Team A so you better deal him to Team B.


Don't teams still hold enormous leverage here though? You draft a guy, if he demands to be traded, well, just don't sign him and you get an extra first round pick next year, while he has to wait another year (or 2-3 years) to be drafted again.
   4. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 16, 2019 at 11:49 AM (#5852490)
Yeah, plus there's the example of Brady Aiken out there, who turned down $5m as the #1 pick (which was admittedly a lowball offer from the Astros, who had up to $8m to spend) and then he immediately had to get TJ after one start with a post-grad team, falling to #17 the next year and $2.5m from the Indians.
   5. puck Posted: June 16, 2019 at 11:59 AM (#5852492)
What's the reason for the rule that if you go to a 4 year school you can't be drafted until your 21, vs going to a juco? That seemed like a weird one. Why not let the 4-year college guys declare whenever they want?
   6. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: June 16, 2019 at 12:01 PM (#5852493)
Go ahead and let teams trade draft pick. It's not that big a deal, and rarely will teams be willing to give up a lot to get a high pick, but why not? Sure, occasionally there will be a high bidder for the chance to draft a Griffey, ARod, Harper... but for a Tim Beckham, Dansby Swanson, or Gerrit Cole?
   7. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: June 16, 2019 at 12:12 PM (#5852498)
Boy, looking over recent #1 overall picks, since Carlos Correa in 2012, it's been a whole lot of nothing. Apple and Aiken, then Swanson who doesn't look to be all that so far, then Moniak, who in 4 seasons is a low average, low walk banjo hitting OF striking out 100 times a year, not a good combination, Royce Lewis has a .606 OPS+ in A+ this year. The last 2 are still quite young, but they were the #1 pick for chrissakes. The #1 pick should be doing better in his 3rd professional year than batting .226 in his second season in high A. I don't know if they were reasonable choices, or that teams picked them to save money or just royally screwed up, but that kind of track record should make teams leery of trading much for draft picks.

Last year's #1, casey Mize seems to be doing well.
   8. Tom Nawrocki Posted: June 16, 2019 at 01:25 PM (#5852507)
Without having checked it rigorously, Dansby Swanson strikes me as about the median No. 1 overall pick. He looks like the new J.J. Hardy.
   9. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: June 16, 2019 at 02:32 PM (#5852527)
J.J. Hardy had 28 career WAR, about the same as Josh Hamilton. Hamilton is 15th in career WAR among #1 picks through 2010 (Harper, who's just a tad behind and will surely pass Hamilton, so let's say 16th). Everyone drafted earlier than that is either past 28, or not getting there. 16th out of 50 is far from the median. The median #1 is more like Jeff King at ~17 WAR.
   10. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: June 16, 2019 at 02:37 PM (#5852529)
Not counting guys who are too recent to have been given a chance, there are 11 #1s who produced fewer than 1 WAR (and I counted Danny Goodwin only once). The 11th most is 33 by Rick Monday. So, historically, your chance of getting 33 or more is the same as getting nothing.
   11. base ball chick Posted: June 16, 2019 at 04:58 PM (#5852566)
like
non-baseball fans who don't know any of the prep skool kids or collitch ball stahs are gonna tune in to hear:

the yankees trade prospect joe shlabotnik for seattle's 13th round and 15th round picks, jonny sweat and sam dude. jonny is outta Snob Kids R Us Prep Skool and sam is finishing up at Whosis Juco with a major in Duck Season Wabbit Season

yeh

thats gonna bring in the big numbers all righty

   12. Where have you gone Brady Anderson? Posted: June 16, 2019 at 06:17 PM (#5852575)
Another reason the NFL and NBA drafts get more coverage and hype is that they are in the off-season, so they are the biggest story for their leagues when they happen. The MLB draft is during the season, so MLB is essentially competing with itself for headlines. Us baseball fans have plenty to talk about right now without paying attention to the draft.
   13. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: June 16, 2019 at 08:49 PM (#5852610)
Also, who cares if the MLB draft isn't front line news?
   14. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 16, 2019 at 11:12 PM (#5852642)

What's the reason for the rule that if you go to a 4 year school you can't be drafted until your 21, vs going to a juco? That seemed like a weird one. Why not let the 4-year college guys declare whenever they want?


I think it is hard enough for college baseball coaches to deal with recruiting a bunch of high school kids then have half of them end up going pro, that perhaps it would make it even tougher if they had underclassmen leaving. But in practical terms, it probably wouldn't have that much effect to let guys go - most freshmen aren't good enough to be impact players right away, and even most sophomores aren't that great. But for guys like Andrew Vaughn, Adley Rutschman, and Kumar Rocker, yea, maybe they should be able to go pro? I don't know, I don't mind that rule so much.
   15. JRVJ Posted: June 16, 2019 at 11:13 PM (#5852644)
A solution in search of a problem.
   16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 17, 2019 at 08:26 AM (#5852666)
plus there's the example of Brady Aiken out there, who turned down $5m as the #1 pick (which was admittedly a lowball offer from the Astros, who had up to $8m to spend)


It wasn’t exactly a lowball - issues turned up in his pre-signing physical, the Astros accordingly dropped from the pre-draft agreement of $6.5M down to a $5M offer, and Aiken declined it, as was his prerogative.

Given that he hurt his arm not all that long thereafter, it seems like the Astros’ concerns were valid.
   17. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 17, 2019 at 08:29 AM (#5852667)
Last year's #1, casey Mize seems to be doing well.


He just went on the IL with a shoulder injury within the last couple of days. Fortunately for him, it doesn’t look like he’s going to need surgery.
   18. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: June 17, 2019 at 08:37 AM (#5852669)
There are two reasons the MLB draft isn't watched as much as its NFL and NBA counterparts. First, the players aren't household names; college baseball's audience is vanishingly small compared to college football and basketball, and that's not to mention the high schoolers who make up half of the draft. And second, in the NBA and NFL, your top picks are expected to contribute to next year's team; in MLB, you can expect significant development time in the minor leagues even for high first round picks, and quite a few early round picks will never play for the major league team at all.

I don't see any way for the MLB draft to overcome those structural disadvantages. But I also don't think this is really a problem for the sport.

I would add 3: The impact even a great draft pick can have in MLB is dwarfed by what it can in the NFL/NBA. Even if you draft the next Mike Trout, that pales in comparison to what it means for your franchise, should you draft the next LeBron or KD, or draft your next franchise QB (or in the case of the NY Giants, the guy who will fail to be your next franchise QB).
And 4: The bust rate in MLB is astronomically higher. Even 'can't miss' prospects miss all the damn time. So it's kinda silly to get too invested in guys who will probably never amount to anything.
   19. Zonk Has Two Faces, Both Laughing Posted: June 17, 2019 at 09:06 AM (#5852680)
I'm just glad the draft is finally available to follow live now.... I remember how excited I was when BaseballAmerica streamed the audio of the 2001 draft -- it was a real milestone just to be able to listen the picks as they happened. "The Cubs select re-draft number blahblah, Prior, Mark... RHP from the University of Southern California..."
   20. Rusty Priske Posted: June 17, 2019 at 09:32 AM (#5852691)
No trading draft picks.
   21. Bote Man Posted: June 17, 2019 at 03:54 PM (#5852872)
Also, who cares if the MLB draft isn't front line news?

Exactly! MLB seems to have penis envy of the glitzier sports like NFL and NBA so they keep coming up with these gimmicks in the hopes of drawing more attention to themselves. Meanwhile, there are plenty of areas where they could attract more attention to their actual "product" which is Major League baseball games. Yet, they just seem tone deaf or downright stupid about how to go about it.
   22. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: June 17, 2019 at 04:15 PM (#5852887)
I'm a big baseball fan. Well, MLB. I don't follow college ball other than occasional postseason games. I definitely don't follow high school.

I just looked at the 2019 first round. The ONLY name I recognized was Bobby Witt Jr., and that one only because I knew of Bobby Witt Sr.

The structural differences of the draft are just impossible to overcome.

   23. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 17, 2019 at 05:17 PM (#5852927)
I'm mildly opposed to the idea of trading draft picks, just because I can imagine how comprehensively ###### Dave Littlefield would have left the Pirates if he'd been allowed to trade picks for Matt Morris-caliber vets.
   24. Dr. Vaux Posted: June 17, 2019 at 05:28 PM (#5852931)
Even front offices that were genuinely rebuilding would be ordered by certain ownerships (like the Mets and Orioles) to trade their high picks for slower-developing lower level prospects who had already been paid their bonuses.

And the New York Post would want the Yankees to trade some belly button lint and a couple of draft picks for pitchers on teams that are contending and can afford them.
   25. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: June 17, 2019 at 05:33 PM (#5852935)
#22 -- I'm a reasonably big fan of a good college program (UNC) and follow other teams in the state. I knew four players in the first round (3 ACC players plus Greg Jones of UNC-Wilmington) and knew the names of three others (Adley Rutschman of Oregon State, plus George Kirby of Elon and the high schooler Blake Walston from Wilmington, NC). I'm guessing that knowing the name of 7 players drafted in the first round puts me in the 99th percentile among baseball fans, and really I don't know jack #### about amateur ball.

(Oh yeah, Greg Jones is an incredibly fun ballplayer. I'm very glad the Rays drafted him -- they seem like a team that will know what to do with a guy who lives to get on base and then run run run run run. I'm looking forward to seeing him play in Durham.)

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