Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Monday, September 12, 2022
Los Angeles Angels star Mike Trout homered in his seventh consecutive game, one shy of the major league record, but the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians posted a 5-4 victory on Monday night….
Pittsburgh’s Dale Long established the MLB record of eight straight games with a home run in 1956. Don Mattingly of the Yankees matched it in 1987, as did Seattle’s Ken Griffey Jr. in 1993.
Trout can match the mark on Tuesday night when the Angels continue their series with the Guardians.
Trout is the first AL player with a seven-game home run streak since Kendrys Morales of Toronto in 2018. Cincinnati’s Joey Votto homered in seven straight last season from July 24-30.
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1. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 13, 2022 at 12:15 AM (#6095906)NYC cabbie to new fare: "hey, did you hear the Mets scored 19 runs today?"
New fare: "Great ! Did we win?"
“Mike Trout blasted 3 homeruns today while Shohei Ohtani hit for the cycle and pitched 8 scoreless innings. The Angels lost 5 to 4.”
7 HRs, 2 2Bs, 2 singles.
11 RBIs.
If I were the Angels, I would prioritize having two guys who could hit one-two in the lineup with on-base skills, regardless of anything else they could do well, and stick them in front of Trout.
And I would just put Trout in bubble wrap.
It is so frustrating that Tom Brady can play pro football for 23 years, and outside of one season with the torn ACL in 2008, pretty much never miss a game. LeBron James is a huge guy, plays unreal amounts of minutes, taking endless amounts of contact as he approaches 40, and keeps playing at a high level; Serena can play until almost 40, give birth to a kid, keep playing at a high level; but Trout can't stay on the field with what would *seem* to be the least punishing of the major sports.
Because when Trout is on the field, there is nobody like him.
Also possibly apocryphal:
Brooklyn cabbie says to new fare, "Hey, the Bums have 3 men on base."
New fare, "Yeah? Which base?"
Also very much hoping it’s a one year blip - but I don’t know.
They went 60-49 in games he didn't homer.
Does anyone prioritize "on-base skills" any more, much less two people, much less two on the same team? Contemporary analytics says a guy who hits 15 HR with a .280 OBP is more valuable than a spray-hitting singles hitter who walks 80 times a season, so that's all we get any more.
That seems a little hyperbolic. Or I missed the memo, which is happening more and more these days
This year, 45%.
So overall his HR% is up, but his HR/fly ball is actually down a bit.
Not judging, merely observing. Not right or wrong, just different. Still very valuable.
Of course, he's also been dealing with various injuries. And yet, he still has a 176 wRC+ that's above his career average. He's pretty good.
is related to this:
He's always had an uppercut swing path, but perhaps he's gone even further in that direction to hit more balls in the ait.
I don't have the numbers for this, but my naked eye observation is that, with Ohtani behind him, Trout's getting challenged a lot more, so he's seeing -- and swinging, and missing -- at a lot more pitches around and across the plate. He's always racked up a big K total for such a finicky hitter. Again, I'm not sure what this means going forward.
Such as?? We toss out stuff like this as if these guys were ever a substantial part of the game. (And as if they wouldn't be allowed in today's game for some reason which is just a silly claim.) I mean walking 80 times a year is already around a 12% walk rate. Back in 1977, there were only 30 qualified batters who reached a 12% walk rate, only 16 batters who actually made it to 80 walks; 35 who made it to 70. Only 16 of those 35 hit 270 or better. Of those 16, one (Davey Lopes) had a below-average SLG. Two other guys are maybe close enough to count -- Steve Ontiveros (299/390/423, >avg SLG but <avg ISO) and Roy White (268/358/405, slightly >avg SLG), both guys with over 40 XBH.
In 2021 there were 15 guys who made it to 80 walks, 26 who made it to 70 (note, despite expansion, there were actually more qualified batters in 1977 than 2012 at 147 to 133 ... a startling change nobody seems to have noticed). Only 6 of the 26 hit 270 or better which might be all the oafish behavior or might be a tougher BA environment or a mix of the two.** There's one guy who's close enough in LeMahieu at 268/349/362 and two Roy White types in Moncada (263/375/412) and Nate Lowe (264/367/415). Lowe's even a 1B.
So good average, good walks, little power has always been a very rare combination -- if for no other reason than walk rates and power are somewhat correlated. To the extent teams make a choice between BA and power, it is usually as to whether Juan Pierre (300/350/375 early in his career) is worth playing in LF in his 30s (the answer was yes despite 287/341/342, averaging 36 BB and 10 HBP per 162). Here in 2022, the answers are Andrew Benintendi (304/373/399) and Steven Kwan (293/370/383) ... which hasn't kept Myles Straw (207/277/254), Adam Frazier (241/307/315) or Tony Kemp (234/309/325) from racking up plenty of playing time.
Note, average SLG in 1977 was 401; in 2021 it was 411 but pitchers were still hitting some; in 2022 it's been 396.
1977 264/329/401, 4.47 R/G
2022 243/312/396, 4.31 R/G
In 2022, 11 of 139 qualified batters have an ISO below 100; in 2009, a Pierre year, it was 13 of 156; in 1977, it was 32 of 147. Raise your hand if you miss OF Paul Dade. (Not surprisingly, the vast majority among those 32 are SSs and 2Bs. There's also Dave Chalk a 3B, Steve Braun who had his moments, an old Brock, a young Mazzilli and Bruce Bochte who were corner players.)
So sure, we've "lost" 12 singles while "adding" 10 extra bases per 600 AB. Call it one single per game per team in exchange for an extra HR per 3 games per team. In terms of who's on the field, the change is mainly that 2B and SS are bigger and stronger than they used to be -- if it worked for Ernie Banks and Cal Ripken then why not Corey Seager and Carlos Correa?
** i.e. in 1977, a 270 BA was barely above league-average; in 2021, that was 10% above league average ... 250 is new 270. If we apply that, then 15 of the 26 guys with 70+ walks in 2021 were "270 or better" hitters.
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