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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Saturday, October 02, 2021Los Angeles Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw exits with left forearm discomfort; playoff availability ‘not looking great’
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: October 02, 2021 at 11:50 AM | 24 comment(s)
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1. The Duke Posted: October 02, 2021 at 02:43 PM (#6043000)Must be a TJS. Which wild have him missing all of 22 and maybe some of 23. It’s possible he’s done.
As #3 notes ... I don't know if he'd be "better off" necessarily but he's certainly got more than enough money and is a lock for the HoF** so a long rehab with an uncertain outcome to pitch as a mercenary may not be so appealing. Finding out if it can be "managed" while still putting up 20-25 strong starts a year makes plenty of sense for him. I'm not sure how much money a team would be willing to give him to try. (Obviously it's early yet, we don't know how serious the injury is yet.)
** He'll test where the current HoF standards are on career IP and wins but he's in.
2455 IP, 185-84, 155 ERA+, 3 CYA, 4th all-time in CYA shares
2749 IP, 203-105, 131 ERA+, 2 CYA, 11th all-time in shares
Of course we know of no voter that has ever cited CYA shares but it's a measure of extended dominance/excellence and that's how you get to "thought of as a HoFer." Kershaw not only has the three wins but two seconds and a third, all in a 7-year span. He won't have the career numbers but that's the sort of run only the very best pitchers in history can match.
2) As for Kershaw's HOF case, I mean, lower ERA & higher K/9 than Koufax in more IP. Higher ERA+. A clear comp. Should be first-ballot if everyone is voting in good faith.
3) Just looked this up. Number of pitchers with sub-2.80 FIP IN OVER 2450 IP? 23.
What does that number look like when you remove pitchers who played before 1930? Clayton Kershaw, table for one.
I hope he resigns with the Dodgers though. There hasn't been a one team HOF starter since Jim Palmer.
Anyway, he obviously could come back. But while he's only 33, if he needs TJS then he's not pitching at all at 34, probably miss the first part of 35 and, even if all goes well, won't be himself again until 36. He's not under contract so it takes a bit extra motivation to put in all that work over the next two years to get back and, if things go only OK, maybe close out the career with a few solid but unspectacular seasons. He's presumably still got the back problems and whatever other issues that have limited him to 25 starts a year for several years now.
Anyway, obviously his choice. I don't think he'd have much problem getting the Dodgers to give him a contract that pays him a bit next year to rehab plus a reasonable, incentive-laden guaranteed contract for 2023 if he wants one. And who knows, maybe he really wants 200 wins, 3000 Ks or another ring. (He'll get one this year if the Dodgers win it.) But if he has my personality (very unlikely), he'll seriously consider calling it a day.
Was it just assumed that the Dodgers would re-sign him this offseason? Not coming back to the Dodgers might be another reason to consider hanging them up.
There aren't that many total.
Palmer
Gibson
Drysdale
Koufax
Ford
Lyons
Faber
Johnson
Anyone else?
(Yes, I cheated with Joss, but I remembered the other 3 legit ;-)
He debuted at 21, pitched a full season at 22, became elite at 25 and pitched until he 36 with virtually no time lost to injury.
I had Feller too, and I accidentally deleted him.
Hey, Matty knew the rules when he took the hill.
OK, he probably didn't give it a lot of thought.
By HoF standards ... 2,750 innings is very short. And of course he had that horrible spell in 2000 (only 68 IP) and just over 100 IP in 2001 (in the majors). So yeah, he didn't have a full season in the majors until age 25, missed substantial time in 2004-2005 and his last full season came at 35. That's a short career for a HoFer. He's a smidgen ahead of Lester, Felix, Hamels among recent pitchers. Even Drysdale managed 12 full seasons. I think Kourfax, Joss, Gomez and Dean are the only 20th c HoF starters with fewer IP.
Kershaw vs Pedro: it's an interesting one for bWAR. Pedro wins it easily by 17 WAR and only about 3-4 of that is due to extra replacement value due to IP. But the "raw" stats are very close (Kershaw first)
RA9opp - RA9: 1.64 1.71
RA9def: 0.10 0.06
RArole: 0.18 0.16
That's just a difference of .09 R/9 ... a difference of just 25 runs over Kershaw's career or 28 over Pedro's.
Then park factors come swooping in and it's 95 for Kershaw and 100 for Pedro. That pushes the RA9avg - RA9 difference out to about 0.30 R/9. That adds another 60-66 runs. So even if we pro-rate their innings to be equal, Pedro comes out about 9-10 wins aheas. And 400 extra innings of average Kershaw is worth a lot too.
For fWAR, since Pedro's ERA is spot on his FIP while Kershaw's is a bit better, I assume the gap is a bit bigger there.
Maybe. He hasn't started more than 29 in a season since 2015 and, dropping 2020, he's averaged 25 starts a year since then. He has avaoided missing major time but you have to assume he's gonna miss 5-10 starts a year. Obviously he's been more than good enough to deliver more value in 25 starts than almost any other pitcher in 32 starts so it hasn't been much of an issue. Also over any 5-year period, you shouldn't count on any pitcher averaging more than 25 starts, Kershaw's only odd in how consistently he misses some time but not a lot of time.
197-84 with a wp% of .701
60 more IP at 166 ERA+
The RA9opp-RA9 increases to 1.94
RA9def decreases to .04
Kershaw is great and all, but Pedro was clearly a step above.
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