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Thursday, July 29, 2021

Los Angeles Dodgers finalizing deal to acquire stars Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from Washington Nationals, sources say

The Los Angeles Dodgers are finalizing a deal to acquire star right-hander Max Scherzer and star shortstop Trea Turner from the Washington Nationals for a massive prospect haul, sources told ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Thursday.

The Dodgers will currently send the Nationals four prospects, a source confirmed to Passan: Right-handed pitcher Josiah Gray, catcher Keibert Ruiz, right-handed pitcher Gerardo Carrillo and outfielder Donovan Casey.

Gray and Ruiz were rated by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel as the Dodgers’ top two prospects entering the season.

Gray was ranked No. 36 among the top 100 prospects in MLB entering the season, according to McDaniel. Ruiz was ranked No. 74.

Scherzer is 8-4 with a 2.76 ERA in 19 starts this season. The three-time Cy Young Award winner is scheduled to become a free agent after 2021.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 29, 2021 at 11:19 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dodgers, max scherzer, nationals, trea turner

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   1. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: July 29, 2021 at 11:28 PM (#6031495)
It seems to me that the Dodgers seem to have unlimited cash and prospects. I have no idea if that's true as I don't follow as closely as before but that's it feels like. It's crazy.
   2. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: July 29, 2021 at 11:38 PM (#6031501)
The Dodgers do have unlimited cash.
   3. Howie Menckel Posted: July 29, 2021 at 11:50 PM (#6031505)
C Ruiz and SP Gray are the best pair of can't-miss prospects I can remember ever going in the same trade.
both are ready now.

but then again, I've never seen a team deal studs like Scherzer AND TTurner in the same deal, ever, for prospects.

#stillmorecrossthread
   4. DFA Posted: July 30, 2021 at 01:42 AM (#6031517)
Dealing Ruiz and Gray for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner...seems like a good deal for both sides? Catching prospects have a way of disappointing...
   5. Walt Davis Posted: July 30, 2021 at 07:49 AM (#6031531)
Turner still has a year before FA, Scherzer is pure rental. They're getting old but Scherzer & Kershaw on the same staff still seems unfair. I doubt Bauer will be back this season but the Dodgers will have 6 of the last 10 NL CYA on the payroll (and Scherzer adds an AL). DeGrom won 2, can you name the other two?

Is it a sign of Lux's drop in value that he's not in this trade -- seems an obvious guy you'd get back when trading Turner. This also doesn't bode well for Seager resigning with the Dodgers.

MLB.com keeps their list reasonably updated for promotions, currently have these two at 42-43. That's hardly "can't miss." Both look quite interesting, especially Ruiz who's a low-K switch-hitter.
   6. Rally Posted: July 30, 2021 at 07:50 AM (#6031533)
Ruiz seems as safe as a catching prospect can get. If he was in the low minors, a lot can go wrong between there and the big leagues. But he’s only 1 step away, crushing AAA pitching. I think disappointing would mean a career like d’Arnoud or Wieters, as opposed to Buster Posey. Don’t think he’ll disappoint like Eric Munsen or Jeff Clement (catchers taken with #3 overall pick.)
   7. SoSH U at work Posted: July 30, 2021 at 09:15 AM (#6031543)
can you name the other two?


Arietta is one. Halladay?

   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 30, 2021 at 09:30 AM (#6031547)
MLB.com keeps their list reasonably updated for promotions, currently have these two at 42-43. That's hardly "can't miss." Both look quite interesting, especially Ruiz who's a low-K switch-hitter.

Does the rank really have anything to do with likelihood of busting, or is it mostly about high ceiling?
   9. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: July 30, 2021 at 09:32 AM (#6031549)
The other is R.A. Dickey, but there is a strong case that Keyshawn was more deserving.
   10. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: July 30, 2021 at 11:04 AM (#6031575)
SP Gray


sigh... stupid Reds. Though, if he had stayed in the Reds system his arm probably would have fallen off...
   11. Darren Posted: July 30, 2021 at 11:06 AM (#6031576)
This seems like a huge haul for Washington. Not that these values are set in stone, but as starting point: FG says Ruiz and Gray alone have $62 mil. in value. For that (plus more!), you're getting back a couple months of Scherzer at market value, and 1.333 years of Turner for ~$20 mil. Putting his value at around $54 mil, that leaves you with $34 mil in surplus value. Seems lopsided on first glance. Looking at just in terms of thinking about other deadline deals, it doesn't seem like such deals usually involve such high-value prospects, even when they're for top players.
   12. Adam Starblind Posted: July 30, 2021 at 11:10 AM (#6031577)
Any idea what FG's track record is with prospect valuation? I guess the question is really about the track record of their projection system as applied to prospects. $62 million seems enormous to me, prospects being what they are--prospects. Prospects.
   13. Howie Menckel Posted: July 30, 2021 at 11:24 AM (#6031579)
7.30... Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Rockies have "no plans" to trade Jon Gray or Daniel Bard prior to the deadline.
Spin: MLB Network's Jon Heyman had reported previously that the Rockies were considering hanging onto Gray and making him a qualifying offer after the season rather than trading him. Still, it's a surprise, as the lack of good starting pitching options on the trade market seemingly would lead to quality offers for Gray. Trevor Story remains a big trade chip for Colorado, although there has been some speculation that the club could wind up hanging on to him, too.
   14. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: July 30, 2021 at 11:52 AM (#6031587)
What happened to the Padres deal? Midday buzz from Rosenthal was that Scherzer was heading to San Diego.
   15. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 30, 2021 at 12:12 PM (#6031592)
Jon Gray is a very good starting pitcher who doesn't have a lot of mileage on his arm and pitches well at Coors Field (his ERA is lower in Colorado than it is on the road). And he wants to stay in Denver. My personal opinion is that the Rockies should be focused on locking him up for a few more years rather than trying to get some A-ball catcher for him.

Daniel Bard is the kind of guy - great story, OK pitcher, 36 years old - who they should have traded yesterday. A rebuilding team should not be worried about who its closer is, and Bard's not even a great closer.

I'm fine with them trading Story, who has had a frustrating year. The problem with Story is that he's a good hitter for a shortstop but not a good hitter for the "best hitter on the team" role, which is what the Rockies want him to be. Maybe it's just me, but he seems uncomfortable as the focal point of the lineup. I'd be happy with Brendan Rodgers as the team's shortstop going forward.
   16. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: July 30, 2021 at 12:46 PM (#6031617)
What happened to the Padres deal? Midday buzz from Rosenthal was that Scherzer was heading to San Diego.
Friedman made Rizzo an offer he couldn’t refuse.
Jon Gray is a very good starting pitcher who doesn't have a lot of mileage on his arm and pitches well at Coors Field (his ERA is lower in Colorado than it is on the road). And he wants to stay in Denver. My personal opinion is that the Rockies should be focused on locking him up for a few more years rather than trying to get some A-ball catcher for him.
The Rockies should absolutely extend Gray, but it doesn’t sound like the Rockies are trying to negotiate with him. It sounds like they are going to make a QO at the end of the year and see what happens. That seems like a bad plan to me.

It doesn’t seem like Story wants to be there and his trade value should be greater than a comp pick.
   17. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: July 31, 2021 at 07:29 PM (#6031951)
Putting his value at around $54 mil, that leaves you with $34 mil in surplus value.


This is probably the millionth time I've said this, but this kind of analysis is completely worthless without taking into account externalities. The Dodgers have clearly decided that what matters to them -- their ownership group, their management, and their fans -- is going to the World Series absolutely as often as possible. There are a lot of reasons why that kind of thing doesn't yield easily (or even really at all) to strict $/win calculations.

Aside from that, Scherzer is obviously a Bauer replacement, right down to the probability that he walks this winter.
   18. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: July 31, 2021 at 07:30 PM (#6031952)
Daniel Bard is the kind of guy - great story, OK pitcher, 36 years old


Good lord, Daniel Bard is 36? Next thing you'll tell me is that I'm 41 and my dad is pushing 80.

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