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Monday, August 22, 2022

Los Angeles Dodgers, Max Muncy agree to 1-year, $13.5 million extension

The Los Angeles Dodgers and two-time All-Star Max Muncy have agreed on a $13.5 million, one-year contract extension for 2023

The deal announced Monday includes a $10 million club option for 2024 with no buyout.

His option price can increase by $4 million based on plate appearances next year: $250,000 each for 50, 250, 300 and 350, $500,000 apiece for 400 and 450, and $1 million each for 500 and 550. He would get a one-time assignment bonus of $1 million if traded.

The 31-year-old outfielder has struggled this season. He’s hitting .190 with 16 homers and 47 RBIs while playing in 99 games.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 22, 2022 at 11:46 PM | 33 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dodgers, max muncy

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   1. I Am Not a Number Posted: August 23, 2022 at 05:57 AM (#6092757)
Outfielder?
   2. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: August 23, 2022 at 06:44 AM (#6092758)
I had the same thought. The last time he appeared in the outfield was 2018.

In fact, playing decent defense at 2B and 3B has propped him up this year, at least according to B-R. He's been a below-average hitter (though not by as much as his BA would suggest), but being able to pick it a little means he's been worth 2 rWAR so far, with more than a month left in the season.

All that said, Muncy has always seemed like a guy who was living on a knife's edge. His BA can only go so low before things come apart, and any dip in power basically makes him a non-entity at the plate. He's seen that happen a little this year. The Dodgers can take a flier on him, but if his power doesn't rebound guys will start challenging him in the zone, and then it's off to the broadcast booth for ol' Max.

   3. Rhiannon Wooten Posted: August 23, 2022 at 08:43 AM (#6092769)
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   4. Walt Davis Posted: August 23, 2022 at 09:07 AM (#6092776)
A somewhat odd deal. Or maybe not, as #2 notes, he's rebounded enough that the offense is back to league average and the defense is fine. On the other hand, that rebounded offense is just a blistering hot August. Anyway, he'd have been FA at the end of the year but I wasn't expecting him to get anything more than a make-good deal somewhere for a few million. The Dodgers have given him a make-good deal for $14 M although they get the option to soften the blow. But if he's really above-avverage still then $14 M ain't so bad.

It looks like an interesting offseason for the Dodgers. They're out from their half of Price, Kimbrel's gone, J Turner is probably gone (or back on a cheap deal), they have a non-tender decision on Bellinger (could get $20 M), I'm not sure what the Bauer situation is and T Turner, Kershaw and Gallo are FA. I assume they'll offer T Turner a lot of money but they could always go after Correa or X instead.
   5. Dillon Gee Escape Plan Posted: August 23, 2022 at 10:01 AM (#6092782)
Muncy by month:

April: .136/.313/.273
May: .164/.341/.254
June: .197/.312/.364
July: .147/.277/.320
August: .333/.429/.767

August and June are his only months with an OPS north of .600. His August OPS is over 500 points higher than June. The .219 BABIP certainly doesn't help, though his career BABIP is only .256. He also has a career low HR/FB and career high IFFB% (not counting 2015/16 where he was a bench player).
   6. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: August 23, 2022 at 10:26 AM (#6092794)
$13M is basically nothing for a guy who was got MVP votes last year and is only 32, old player skills or no. He can play a few different positions without embarrassing himself and even this year has an above-average OBP.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: August 23, 2022 at 03:58 PM (#6092859)
It's such a weird season to slice and dice. Through late May he was hitting just 150/327/263 -- that's a guy desperately looking for walks cuz he can't hit anything anymore. He missed a couple of weeks in late May-early June. Since then he's put up a line of 219/332/468 which is quite good by today's standards. So you think maybe he'd been nursing that injury for a while and they finally gave him time off to heal. But if we'd looked at the end of July instead then his post-return numbers were 170/292/340 which is nothing but a good walk rate. I don't mean any of that is indicative of his true level right now, it's just about as extremely distributed as you can get.
   8. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: August 23, 2022 at 04:55 PM (#6092869)
they have a non-tender decision on Bellinger


Strange to say about a player who's only a few years removed from winning the MVP, I think you have to non-tender him unless he shows something in the next month or so that he hasn't in a long while.
   9. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 23, 2022 at 05:08 PM (#6092871)
Strange to say about a player who's only a few years removed from winning the MVP, I think you have to non-tender him unless he shows something in the next month or so that he hasn't in a long while.

Is there any precedent for a collapse like Bellinger's? Maybe Jeff Burroughs? Though he was never as bad as Bellinger has been the last two years. It's just hard to fathom.
   10. DCA Posted: August 23, 2022 at 05:16 PM (#6092873)
Bellinger:

Non-tender is the most likely, IMO.

But I wonder if he'd be up for a one-year deal with a team option at the same salary as this year. E.g. $17m for 2023 with a $18m team option for 2024 or $500k buyout. The Dodgers have a lot of money coming off the books, they can afford an overpay with upside if they think there's any chance of further rebound (even to 2020 level).

   11. Nasty Nate Posted: August 23, 2022 at 05:18 PM (#6092874)
There was some guy in the 1930's named Don Hurst. His OPS+ in his last 4 years in the league at ages 25-28: 122, 124, 94, 60

   12. sunday silence (again) Posted: August 23, 2022 at 05:19 PM (#6092875)
Is there any precedent for a collapse like Bellinger's? Maybe Jeff Burroughs? Though he was never as bad as Bellinger has been the last two years. It's just hard to fathom.


Josh Hamilton comes to mind. Hal Trosky had 7 straight years of 4WAR then collapse at age 29. I cant recall what happened. Obviously Hack WIlson. Its an interesting exercise. Conigliaro if we are counting horrible injuries. Even he hadnt reached Trosky/Bellinger levels and was only 23. McCutheon reached an even higher level with 4 straight years top 5 in MVP voting before collapsing to not quite average.

We've debated Claudell Washington before, but he had one really great year IIRC and was super young. Bellinger had one MVP season and if you extrapolate covid season basically 3 other years of 4 WAR before collapse.
   13. sunday silence (again) Posted: August 23, 2022 at 05:37 PM (#6092880)
Alex Johnson. 3 years of not quite Bellinger/Trosky level but fell to less than replacement level. Age 28. Mental issues that were much talked about.

Ken Harrelson. 1 5WAR season then back to replacement level. Age 27. That one was always weird because I dont recall any one single thing with him.

Nomar. But that was a series of injuries I think..?
   14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 23, 2022 at 05:43 PM (#6092882)
Lot's of guys collapse near 30, what's weird about Bellinger is he started his slide before Age 25.
   15. vortex of dissipation Posted: August 23, 2022 at 05:50 PM (#6092885)
Hal Trosky had 7 straight years of 4WAR then collapse at age 29. I cant recall what happened.


Crippling migraine headaches that put him out for days at a time, and affected his vision. Late in his career he improved, as his SABR bio says, "...headache pain had been, in part, controlled by vitamin B-1 shots and by a significant reduction in his daily intake of dairy products. It was ironic that an Iowa dairy farmer was allergic to the very stuff his animals produced, and that he consumed so frequently in order to maintain his athletic frame."
   16. sunday silence (again) Posted: August 23, 2022 at 05:59 PM (#6092890)
I didnt realize that about Trosky. He hung on for several more seasons.
   17. sunday silence (again) Posted: August 23, 2022 at 06:14 PM (#6092892)
peak Cedeno was age 21-22, but even he was still good at 29.
   18. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: August 23, 2022 at 06:20 PM (#6092893)
Lot's of guys collapse near 30, what's weird about Bellinger is he started his slide before Age 25


Yeah, that's the weird part for sure. High Pockets Kelly, despite being in the Hall, compiled just 25.6 rWAR. Almost all of it was between 1920 and 1926. He was terrible before then -- these days, there's no way he'd have been in the bigs -- and below-average-to-bad after. But 1926 was his age-30 season. It's not really shocking that his bat went in the toilet after that.
   19. sunday silence (again) Posted: August 23, 2022 at 06:31 PM (#6092896)
I think Claudell and Cedeno are the nearest comps but even so, Bellinger seems almost a unicorn.
   20. The Duke Posted: August 23, 2022 at 09:50 PM (#6092934)
Mattingly and strawberry were done early but not by 27

Vada pinson

But the best comp is Jason Heyward

All lefties
   21. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 23, 2022 at 10:14 PM (#6092939)
Mattingly and strawberry were done early but not by 27


If Bellinger doesn't rebound, his collapse started at 24.
   22. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: August 23, 2022 at 10:34 PM (#6092943)
Dan S (the Zips guy) had a recent article about Bellinger and the tl;dr version is no, nobody has ever collapsed as dramatically as Bellinger.
   23. The Duke Posted: August 23, 2022 at 11:51 PM (#6092958)
Another somewhat comp is Yelich. Yelich bad years are much better, but wow, Yelich went from MVP candidate to join-him really fast

Undoubtedly injuries are at play here. Mattingly's back, strawberry's drugs, yelich back and Heyward had the beanball. Pinson had leg injuries.

But perhaps there is a little more risk to lefties than righties. It's hard to find a right handed hitter with similar issues

Dan S also mentions Harper - another lefty
   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 24, 2022 at 09:23 AM (#6092982)
Undoubtedly injuries are at play here. Mattingly's back, strawberry's drugs, yelich back and Heyward had the beanball.

Heyward doesn't belong on the injury list, at least not from the beanball. He raked immediately after coming back from the injury (Aug 12, 2013), and his offense didn't collapse until 2016.
   25. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: August 24, 2022 at 09:26 AM (#6092983)
That is quite the chart in Dan's article. [The criteria is players age 25 or younger with the largest wRC+ decline].

Bellinger is the only one who fell to below average. Otherwise, Beltre had the fourth largest drop, and fell to the lowest (102 in his Seattle years). Everyone else dropped off from super-duperstar level to basically All-Star level.
   26. Ron J Posted: August 24, 2022 at 11:53 AM (#6092996)
Mitchell Page was the first name that came to mind for me. Excellent rookie season and very good follow up. After which he had 381 games of a 93 OPS+

But he's not really comparable. He was a 25 year old rookie and his best season was nowhere near as good as Bellinger was at his best and his fall wasn't as steep.

Never heard anything specific, but I've always assumed that his drinking got the better of him. Page had major issues later in life and I just assumed the problems started earlier.
   27. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: August 24, 2022 at 07:26 PM (#6093100)
I guess it's what makes them the Dodgers, but it's kind of remarkable that they basically lost Bellinger completely after his MVP season and kept winning games as though nothing had happened.
   28. Walt Davis Posted: August 24, 2022 at 07:31 PM (#6093101)
I mention in the other thread that obviously the pool of guys as good as Bellinger at 21-23 is small; the pool of guys allowed to hold onto full-time jobs while hitting as badly as Bellinger at 25-26 is small. The intersection of the two is of course teeny. Add the issue that we can't really tell the difference between "fluke/flash in the pan" and "excellent young player" until the mid-20s collapse doesn't happen and who really knows. Then if we're trying to rule out guys who got hurt ...

Claudell ... I thought of him in the other thread but we overstate his production in those early years and overstate the extent of his decline. He had OPS+ of just 108 and 119 at 19-20. That's extremely promising at those ages but it's not close to OMG territory. That age 20 season was 4.9 WAR which is excellent but it relies on running and defense too. The "shocking" thing about Claudell was that the A's had the guts to trade him after his age 21 season. Everybody thought they were nuts.

But the decline there was still to average hitter. Average hitters "fluke" their way into a couple of 110 OPS+ seasons all the time. Or vice versa as from age 24-34 he put up a 110 OPS+. That was a lower BA with more power and BB than the 19-20 Claudell which hardly seems dramatic. That age 20 season stands out in all sort of ways. He was no other WAR season remotely close to it. He was never a top base-stealer by the standards of the time and didn't have a good percentage until his late 20s. He's not rated as a great baserunner. He's rated as a slightly above-average defender in LF in his youth (not exactly a sign of great prowess). That age 20 season just happened to be the one time he was above-average at everything in the same season.

So we looked at Claudell age 20 and expected him to get better from there. He didn't ... that's unusual but not really rare ... probably quite typical of the guys who never make the majors. But he didn't really get worse either. He was a solid player with a fluke season. Of course it's always possible there was an injury in there that we don't know about.
   29. sunday silence (again) Posted: August 24, 2022 at 08:46 PM (#6093108)
I dunno Walt. I dont want to say Claudell is a very close comp to Bellinger cause he's not really. And you do make certain to note that. But then the rest of your argument you seem to be painting with too fine a brush:

...we overstate his production in those early years and overstate the extent of his decline. He had OPS+ of just 108 and 119 at 19-20.


followed by:

That age 20 season stands out in all sort of ways. He was no other WAR season remotely close to it.


well which is it? Was this an illusion or did it really stand out by WAR? YOu cant have it both ways can you?

or this:

That age 20 season was 4.9 WAR which is excellent but it relies on running and defense too.


Did you notice that Bellinger saved 23 runs in fielding his MVP season? I bet you didnt know that. Again:

He was never a top base-stealer by the standards of the time and didn't have a good percentage until his late 20s.


what are you getting at? OK take a deep breath.... Exhale...

Isn this what you're going for. Your thesis if you will:

He was a solid player with a fluke season.


Well OK. YOu seem to be saying that Claudell's issue is something fundamentally different than Bellingers. Maybe it is. But you're not going to make that case by arguing about his base stealing. THe closest you get to putting together that sort of argument is here:

That age 20 season just happened to be the one time he was above-average at everything in the same season.


Well duh, isnt that what we're talking about with all these players? Heyward, Cedeno, Cito Gaston, Alec Johnson, Tito Francona, Jim Ray Hart, Billy Grabarkewitz?

Well "no" you would say, "because Cedeno had a couple of 9 WAR seasons when he was real young. But Claudell's just came out of nowhere. "

Well what about Grabarkewitz? "No, Grabarkewitz came out of nowhere. He was below replacement then he had a 6.5 WAR season out of nowhere and immediately returned to replacement level. He's just like Claudell."

Francona? "Francona had several good seasons. He's more like Bellinger."

See? Im actually helping you make the argument.


OK so Claudell's age 20 is some fluke because everything happened to bounce right. Like if there was a BABIP or FIP measure for baserunning and fielding Claudell would turn out to have simply lucked into something. Like he in biorythyms he had a triple witching hour at age 20 whereas Bellinger; NOW THAT WAS REAL. And his fall is a real drop off in talent. Not some bounce back to normal like Claudell.

I dunno. I can sort of see where you're going with this, but it's not really a fully formed thesis. You made a similar vague argument in the Claudell discussion and Im not saying its not without merit, but its also not really fully proved .

Like cant we argue that Bellinger fluked into one spectacular season? He went from 4 WAR to 8 WAR. Maybe Bellingers season happened to be the one time he was above average in everything in the same season?

Take two others guys I've been looking at: Petrocelli and Ken Harreleson.

They both lost 5 WAR from their previous season. Both happened at age 27 so perhaps they miss the cutoff by 2 years.

Harrelson was seemingly a replacement level player through age 25. Then he had one spectacular 5 WAR season and then reverted back to replacement level, essentially.

petrocelli was a 4 WAR player, and jumped to 10 WAR in that season he hit 42 HRs. He the reverted back to couple seasons of 5 WAR and several more pretty good seasons.

Are these guys any more flukey than Claudell? Is Bellinger less flukey? How so? Whats the argument.

Oh yeah, Petrocelli lost 12 fielding runs in 1970. Is that the difference ?
   30. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 24, 2022 at 10:37 PM (#6093123)
Did you notice that Bellinger saved 23 runs in fielding his MVP season? I bet you didnt know that. Again:

He almost certainly didn't. UZR says he saved 10. We really shouldn't look at WAR in theses discussions. Everyone should know by now that single season defensive stats are unreliable. It's the offensive collapse that makes Bellinger unique; ignore the fielding.
   31. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: August 24, 2022 at 10:53 PM (#6093131)
Another somewhat comp is Yelich. Yelich bad years are much better, but wow, Yelich went from MVP candidate to join-him really fast


Yelich was well on his way to consecutive MVPs, then fouled a ball off the kneecap(shattered it I believe) and hasn't been the same since. I'm not sure most people even walk the same after shattering a kneecap, nevermind coming back to play MLB.
   32. sunday silence (again) Posted: August 24, 2022 at 10:55 PM (#6093132)

He almost certainly didn't. UZR says he saved 10. We really shouldn't look at WAR in theses discussions.


Well then tell that to the other guy. He's the one arguing that Claudell is a fluke because of defense.
   33. sunday silence (again) Posted: August 29, 2022 at 01:32 PM (#6093602)
testing..

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