I don’t know how many have seen scherzer pitch recently but he’s totally dominant right now. He’s going to get a huge contract this offseason

There are always articles about worst long-term mega deals, but Scherzer's contract has to be one of the best mega deals ever, right?

Sure. Bonds and Maddux come to mind but Scherzer has to be in the conversation.

Assuming he finishes off 2021 in dominant fashion, what kind of contract should he get offered this off-season? And by whom? He recently turned 37 (late July). Does somebody offer him a 5-year deal for $200 million? Do you want to be on the hook for $40m for a 41-year-old starting pitcher?

One thing I am wondering is if the sport-wide reduction in innings pitched by starting pitchers will eventually have some impact on how teams pay starters, even elite ones like Scherzer. In four of the first five years with Washington, he gave them at least 220 innings (and 200 the other year). If 220 innings is becoming 185 innings, then those high-leverage 35 innings are coming from somewhere else (they are the 7th inning of 20 or more competitive games that you now have to cover with somebody else).

But if you're looking for a horse to get you over the top, the way LA did at this trade deadline, then Scherzer is one of the only guys who truly fits the bill. He is on a historic run right now, and fun to watch.

$200M is the roughly cost of 25 WAR on the open market. He's a 6+ win pitcher and as good of a bet as anyone to give you 18 WAR in the next 3 years but I'm not sure he's got enough career left to produce 25 WAR. It might be a 6 year $180M contract instead to allow the signing team to spread out the luxury tax hit.

Since he already has contract deferrals on his current deal until 2028 there could be a chance to defer quite a bit of his next contract beyond 2028. That could get him above $200M but the NPV would be lower if some of that money doesn't show up for a decade.

Scherzer has 56 plate appearances this year, and has made 57 outs.

0-52. 3 sac bunts, 1 sac fly, and a GIDP.

6. So his value goes way up next year with introduction of the DH. That ought to net him 10-20 million more right there.

Scherzer’s run with the Dodgers has been reminiscent of Randy Johnson’s post-trade run with the Astros in 1998. Just completely dominant and virtually unhittable.

It is unlikely that Scherzer puts up the same numbers as Johnson post age 36, but somebody will probably pay to find out.

It is unlikely that Scherzer puts up the same numbers as Johnson post age 36, but somebody will probably pay to find out.

If he does, he'll win 300 games. That would be something.

would you rather sign 37-year old Scherzer or 33-year old Kershaw to a mega-deal? I would pick Scherzer and not worry about it.

It is unlikely that Scherzer puts up the same numbers as Johnson post age 36, but somebody will probably pay to find out.

he might put up era and era+ like Johnson, but, unless he suffers no injuries through age 45, he will not match the games started or innings pitched totals of Johnson from 37-45.

Scherzer could get a lot of money on a 1 or 2 year deal, and perhaps his prior deferrals will give him the flexibility to go that route, betting on himself to age well.

Amazingly, for his career he does have a positive value of 1.1 offensive bWAR.

Scherzer’s run with the Dodgers has been reminiscent of Randy Johnson’s post-trade run with the Astros in 1998. Just completely dominant and virtually unhittable.

Shades of CC with the Brewers too, although that was a bit more quantity than quality relative to this particular comparison. Not slighting CC's run at all - 7 CG in 17 starts is probably not going to be done again, and his ERA was pretty small over a much larger # of innings. He had a 10-start run where he threw 80 innings!!

Scherzer is doing Johan Santana-in-2004 type stuff right now.

would you rather sign 37-year old Scherzer or 33-year old Kershaw to a mega-deal? I would pick Scherzer and not worry about it.

If forced to choose one (that is, I can't NOT do either), I'd pick Max, too. But I'd sure as hell worry about it.

If I'm Max, I go for a 2 year contract on big money and then, if I'm still good, try to pull off a Clemens trajectory. Take April and May off and ramp up for a contender willing to pony up at the deadline.

Shades of CC with the Brewers too, although that was a bit more quantity than quality relative to this particular comparison. Not slighting CC's run at all - 7 CG in 17 starts is probably not going to be done again, and his ERA was pretty small over a much larger # of innings. He had a 10-start run where he threw 80 innings!!

The year he led both leagues in shutouts, which is one of my favorite stats of the 21st century.

That 0 - 52 streak has got to gnawing at Max as he has always seen himself as a plus hitting pitcher.
Dusty and Davy both used him as a pinch hitter from time to time.
Max was and is the alpha dog ion the roster and I am thrilled at his level of success with the Dodgers.
Even though I am rooting hard for the over-achiever Giants, I want Max to do well

Max hit .226 in 2009, .217 in 2015 (in his return to the NL), and had 12 RBI with a .186 AVG in 2016, then .161 and then .243 in 2018 and .182 in 2019.

he didn't bat at all last year due to the 1-year NL DH switch - and apparently he forgot how to hit in the meantime.
the 0-for-52 this year includes 23 Ks.

entering this year, his career AVG was a "really-good-for-a-pitcher" .194.

deGrom, renowned as a good-hitting pitcher, had a .189 AVG before 2021 (when he hit .364 with a 111 OPS+).

Scherzer is also an enthusiastic base-runner.

He isn't the first 37 year old baseball player to suffer a rapid decline at the plate

I can imagine a year off at 36 or 37 could kill batting ability. It’s an age where eyesight changes and lots of truly good hitters lose it.