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Saturday, February 16, 2019

Luis Severino Agrees to 4-Year Deal as Yankees Try to Lock Up Young Core

Severino forfeited what would have been his first season of free agency, in 2023: The deal includes a team option for $15 million that year or a $2.75 million buyout.

The contract also holds hints of players’ fears amid tense labor relations in the majors. Severino’s deal is front-loaded: He will earn $6 million in 2019 and $10 million in 2020, and then is to receive only modest raises to $10.25 million in 2021 and $11 million in 2022. In other words, he will earn $26.25 million of the $40 million guaranteed by the 2021 season.

Jim Furtado Posted: February 16, 2019 at 08:09 AM | 13 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: luis severino, yankees

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: February 16, 2019 at 03:35 PM (#5815895)
Severino was a wuper-2 (another guy who's been Bryanted) so this buys out all 4 arb years plus that option on first FA year. Basically similar to the Nola buyout except he was a full-3 arb guy so it was 3 arb, 1 FA plus an FA option so that first FA year costs a bit more:

LS 6/10/10.25/11/15(2.75)
AN 6/8/11.75/15/16(4.25)

As the article notes, Severino is more front-loaded. The difference in NPV terms is about $4.
   2. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: February 16, 2019 at 05:16 PM (#5815907)
I am extremely optimistic about Severino's future. 10 K/9 with a K/BB ratio approaching 5? Yes please. I expect the Yankees to get a huge bargain on that option.

Of course that's assuming MLB still exists after the next strike. Front-loading is probably a good idea even if you don't care (as players, it seems, usually don't) about NPV.

   3. Walt Davis Posted: February 16, 2019 at 08:25 PM (#5815924)
I'll certainly agree that any player signing a contract with the CBA expiring in the middle of it would be wise to get it front-loaded ... maybe even wise not to sign one that spans that period.
   4. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: February 16, 2019 at 08:42 PM (#5815926)
Even with the front loading, that feels incredibly light. All star last 2 seasons, CY votes in both. Household name, as things go in baseball anyway. I think that is the kind of player that gets paid in arbitration. Where is Scott Boras, when you need him?!?
   5. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: February 16, 2019 at 09:31 PM (#5815932)
Phew, thankfully those low budget Yankees were able to swing a deal like this and keep some of their players before they head off to the wealthier teams once they become a free agents.
Jokes aside, it looks like a pretty good deal for NY. Severino is a pretty solid starter.
   6. Captain Supporter Posted: February 17, 2019 at 12:28 PM (#5815984)
Where is Scott Boras, when you need him?!?

Well , let's see. Telling Bryce Harper that $300M for 10 years was way below the current market? Trying desperately to convince someone, anyone to give Harper some sort of contract that will save him just a little bit of face?

Re: Severino. He gets lifetime financial security, protection against an arm injury, and protection against a strike. And the Yankees get a deal that is perhaps a bit below market, not to mention payroll certainty for four years which allows them to more accurately determine how much they want to spend in other areas. Good deal for both sides.

   7. Walt Davis Posted: February 17, 2019 at 06:21 PM (#5816017)
Addendum to mine ... for some reason, I had thought that Severino missed about half of 2017. This does seem a few million light.

On #6 ... obviously more is better but Severino was about to get several million in an arb award, bringing his career earnings to at least $6-7 M, a total most anybody can squeak by on. Being in the arb system, he'd be essentially guaranteed another $5 M next year unless he got so badly injured the Yanks non-tendered him ... and even for major TJS type injuries, teams rarely release their young starters. In short, lifetime financial security was already his. But sure, another $30 M of financial security never hurt anybody.

His Bryanting casts suspicion on the 2016 demotions but his performance immediately prior to both gives the Yanks more than enough cover. Just awfully convenient that it left him with 170 service days at the end of 2016.
   8. Avoid Running At All Times- S. Paige Posted: February 17, 2019 at 07:27 PM (#5816023)
-6- Nightengale saying Harper is going to get a contract that will exceed the $300 million, 10 year offer. Sometimes Boras knows what he’s doing.
   9. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: February 17, 2019 at 08:32 PM (#5816028)
This feels like a good deal for both sides. What Severino did is put himself in a position to hit free agency at age 30 rather than 32 or 33. I think if I were a guy like Severino (or Trout who did something similar) this is the kind of deal I’d want to get. Maybe I give up a bit short term but if I perform the way I expect to I still hit free agency at an age where I can get a mega deal while at the same time getting #### you money guaranteed.

Not that 5-10 million is chump change but I think it’s not as spectacular as it used to be. Once you take out taxes, agent fees, big purchases, yeah he’s still going to be better off than most people but it’s not as obscene an amount as it used to be.
   10. DCA Posted: February 18, 2019 at 10:00 AM (#5816068)
Re Walt #1 (and #7): Severino was absolutely not Bryant-ed. His roster record is completely normal for a (deservedly) aggressively promoted prospect.

He was on the map as a hot prospect going into 2015, but had only 6 starts at AA for upper minors experience. He got called up in August of that year and pitched very well through the end of the season (though his FIP was fairly pedestrian, suggesting some luck).

The next year, 2016, he started the season in the rotation, was terrible, got demoted to AAA, called up briefly and made two terrible starts midseason, got demoted again, and then called up to pitch long relief in September. Had he pitched well during the midseason call-up, I'd guess that he would have stayed up.

In 2017, he again opened the season in the rotation, and has been there ever since.

There is no hint of any service time manipulation in his record. If anything, he might have justifiably been kept down to start 2017, given the Yankees are always contenders and he was pretty terrible the previous year.
   11. villageidiom Posted: February 18, 2019 at 10:34 AM (#5816079)
I am extremely optimistic about Severino's future. 10 K/9 with a K/BB ratio approaching 5? Yes please. I expect the Yankees to get a huge bargain on that option.

Selection: Pitchers with 9+ K/9 and 4+ K/BB across 2017-18, at least 20 starts and at least 60% of appearances as starts.
Measure: Career pitching OPS against teams having at least a .500 record
(all from BB-ref)

566 Kershaw
627 DeGrom
639 Strasburg
649 Sale
657 Scherzer
662 Kluber
672 Syndergaard
680 Paxton
688 Greinke
689 Verlander
700 Tanaka
701 Nelson
712 Severino
739 Carrasco
750 2018 MLB average (that is, average against .500+ teams)

Most of this list is what people see as Severino's upside. Make no mistake, it is. But it kinda spells out why, as a Red Sox fan, Severino hasn't really made me think of him as belonging with the players further up the list. If Severino can ever get to that upside, nestle into that list somewhere above Thor, this will be a fantastic contract. Hell, I think the Yankees would be pleased at this price if Severino "only" is as good as Tanaka against good teams. But frankly I haven't seen enough from Severino to expect he's more likely to move up this list than he is to move down.
   12. Nasty Nate Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:21 PM (#5820479)
Severino will be shut down for 2 weeks with shoulder discomfort.
   13. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:27 PM (#5820492)
Severino will be shut down for 2 weeks with shoulder discomfort.

Seems to be the best possible case with shoulder soreness. MRI only shows inflammation.

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