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Thursday, September 08, 2022

Major League Baseball competition committee to vote on rules changes Friday with eye on quickening pace of play, sources say

The Major League Baseball competition committee is set to vote on Friday on rule changes that would begin in 2023 which include a first ever pitch clock, the elimination of the shift, bigger bases and a limit to how many times a pitcher can disengage from the rubber, according to sources familiar with the situation.

The goal is to increase action on the field, quicken the pace and reduce the amount of time it takes to play a major league game. The rules changes are expected to pass and include the following:

• A 15 second pitch clock with the bases empty and a 20 second clock with runners on.

• Two disengagements from the rubber - which includes pick-off attempts—per plate appearance.

• A requirement by hitters to be in the batter’s box and ‘alert’ with 8 seconds to go on the clock. Hitters are allowed one timeout per plate appearance.

• Only two infielders will be allowed on each side of second base with all four required to be on the dirt (or inner grass).

• Infielders cannot position themselves on the outfield grass before the pitch is thrown.

• Bases will increase in size from 15 square inches to 18.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 08, 2022 at 05:23 PM | 167 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: pickoffs, pitch clock, shifts

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   1. PeteF3 Posted: September 08, 2022 at 06:19 PM (#6095307)
The only one of these I really disagree with is the ban on the shift...but I wouldn't die on the hill of keeping it, either. It's not like I'm going to miss it if it's gone.

The pitch clocks and the batter having a responsibility to do his part sound great, but it has to actually be enforced. I'm assuming an automatic strike if the batter isn't set at 8 seconds? We're going to get some really silly arguments in '23 but it's all part of the growing pains and adjustments. Hopefully it's less of an adjustment for upcoming prospects who are already playing with a clock.
   2. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 08, 2022 at 06:31 PM (#6095309)
THIS IS NOT THAT EFFING HARD.

Just enforce the current rule regarding time between pitches, I believe it's 12 seconds. Have the batter stay in the box.

Problem solved. A better game. Less swinging from the heels, less rearing back and throwing as hard as you can on every pitch.

Maybe MLB should employ Buehrle to show them how it's done?

Banning the shift is stupid, make hitters adjust if they can't hit through or over it.

Bigger bases should work out ok; haven't given it much thought.
   3. Jobu is silent on the changeup Posted: September 08, 2022 at 06:37 PM (#6095311)
15 square inches and 15 inches square are very different.
   4. Booey Posted: September 08, 2022 at 06:38 PM (#6095312)
Why do an automatic strike if the batter isn't ready? Just let the pitcher throw it whether he's in the box or not.
   5. Baldrick Posted: September 08, 2022 at 06:38 PM (#6095314)
If I were an umpire, I'd be pretty annoyed at how finicky the pitch clock rules are. And as a fan that worries me, since I can easily see people deciding it's too annoying and complicated to enforce. But I'm still relatively hopeful. The best time for this was ten years ago, but at least they eventually got going.
   6. PeteF3 Posted: September 08, 2022 at 06:39 PM (#6095315)
Nah, at this point I prefer the unambiguity of the clock. Plus I like the limitation on "disengagements," which are just as annoying as a batter strolling around outside the box. And you have to have one with the other (in the minors, pitchers would just step off the rubber to reset the clock).
   7. PeteF3 Posted: September 08, 2022 at 06:40 PM (#6095316)
Why do an automatic strike if the batter isn't ready? Just let the pitcher throw it whether he's in the box or not.


That's sort of the rule as it already is. If the batter just won't get in the box, the umpire has the capacity to ask the pitcher to pitch and if/when he does, it's an automatic strike.
   8. Booey Posted: September 08, 2022 at 06:42 PM (#6095317)
I really wish players had just adjusted so none of this was necessary, but they didn't and arent likely ever to without being forced, so here we are. The entertainment factor needs to be considered a top priority for a product that exists for the sole purpose of...well, entertainment.
   9. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 08, 2022 at 06:52 PM (#6095319)
Boo!
   10. . Posted: September 08, 2022 at 06:58 PM (#6095320)
Tremendous news. The game will now be far better and far more appealing.
   11. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 08, 2022 at 07:19 PM (#6095322)
The walk-off illegals rubber disengagements will really help the game.
   12. The Duke Posted: September 08, 2022 at 07:37 PM (#6095327)
Hallelujah! This is all great. Did not say whether shifts will requires diagonal from mound to SS/2B. I hope so.

Balk rule - stolen bases will 2X or 3X pretty quickly
   13. Buck Coats Posted: September 08, 2022 at 08:22 PM (#6095336)
this limiting pickoffs rule is really really dumb
   14. Buck Coats Posted: September 08, 2022 at 08:27 PM (#6095337)
As it is stolen bases are higher than they were at many times in baseball history (including the entire stretch from 1930-1972) whereas caught stealings are at a historically low level.
   15. Booey Posted: September 08, 2022 at 08:32 PM (#6095338)
#14 - Yeah, but stolen bases are LOWER than they were when most of US came of baseball watching age (1970's-2000's), so that's what really matters. ;-)
   16. Booey Posted: September 08, 2022 at 08:43 PM (#6095340)
Manfred needs to do whatever it takes to get the game back to exactly how it was from 1996-2004, the indisputable greatest era in MLB history! :-D
   17. PeteF3 Posted: September 08, 2022 at 08:46 PM (#6095341)
The limitation on "disengagements" (including pickoffs) is a necessity if you're going to have a pitch clock. Otherwise pitchers were just stepping off whenever they wanted and resetting it.
   18. Doug Jones threw harder than me Posted: September 08, 2022 at 08:50 PM (#6095342)
It may be that the pitch clock is set at 15/20 seconds with the idea that, once MLB gets used to it, the time can be tightened up subsequently.

Anything that makes stolen bases easier and more frequent will reward OBP and that helps hitters not aiming for a homerun. Offense will go up. Limiting the shift will do this as well. That's fine, actually. Perhaps subsequently something can be done to the ball to even things up if things get out of hand.

I can imagine something silly like players starting in a sprinter-crouch at second base and then sprinting into their actual position as the pitch is thrown. Anyhow that would be interesting to watch.



   19. Space Force fan Posted: September 08, 2022 at 09:10 PM (#6095348)
While I understand and like the pitch clock, I hope it's both tightly defined and also give the umpires some discretion for unforeseen circumstances outside the pitchers and batters control.

I really hate all the other potential rules. Defensive players should be able to play wherever they think is best to get the batter out. There are still only 8 fielders in fair territory, so whatever the defensive alignment, the batters have as much space as before to place the ball for hits.

I understand that pitchers have to stay on the rubber to make the pitch clock effective, but it gives a baserunner too much of an advantage if they can't throw over/freeze the runner if they are faking a stolen base attempt.

We need safer bases, not larger bases. I do support putting a second base at first, in foul territory, and requiring the batter to use it. This eliminates the cheap out by hitting a runner inside the basepath garbage, reduces collisions between the batter and the first baseman, and allows better base construction that reduces leg injuries when batters hit first base wrong.
   20. Tim M Posted: September 08, 2022 at 09:49 PM (#6095354)
Can the catcher just hang onto the ball for a while, putter around with it .. always a loophole somewhere.

Agree banning the shift is awful, it's a more interesting game to let defenders position according to strategy, plus this new rule penalizes 'artistic' hitters who can go to all fields instead of just yanking everything to the pull side.
   21. SoSH U at work Posted: September 08, 2022 at 10:07 PM (#6095357)
As it is stolen bases are higher than they were at many times in baseball history (including the entire stretch from 1930-1972) whereas caught stealings are at a historically low level.


#14 - Yeah, but stolen bases are LOWER than they were when most of US came of baseball watching age (1970's-2000's), so that's what really matters. ;-)

Stolen bases without the risk of a caught stealing does not make the game more exciting. It makes it little league.

I don't like the rules limiting pickoffs. I wish there was a way you could eliminate truly pointless ones (or the even more pointless stepoffs) to address the pace issue, but I don't see how without making the game actually less interesting.
   22. PeteF3 Posted: September 08, 2022 at 10:09 PM (#6095358)
I understand that pitchers have to stay on the rubber to make the pitch clock effective, but it gives a baserunner too much of an advantage if they can't throw over/freeze the runner if they are faking a stolen base attempt.


If they're faking a stolen base attempt, they're not going anyway, right? So what's the advantage?

I think making a third unsuccessful pickoff a balk is a step too far and I think a ball would be sufficient. But I'm not exactly lamenting something that gives an advantage to baserunners.
   23. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: September 08, 2022 at 10:30 PM (#6095360)
15 square inches and 15 inches square are very different.

LOLing at the thought of bases covering an area of 15 in², or 3.9" on each side.
   24. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 08, 2022 at 10:36 PM (#6095361)
Can the catcher just hang onto the ball for a while, putter around with it .. always a loophole somewhere.
Yeah, I’ve always said that they’ll find out quickly that the pitch clock has to start when the catcher receives the previous pitch (or gets a new ball from the ump in case of a foul, etc.).
   25. shoelesjoe Posted: September 08, 2022 at 11:01 PM (#6095364)
I don’t get the obsession by some people to ban defensive shifts. By definition the shift punishes the kind of all-or-nothing hitter who’s made baseball less interesting over the last 30 years. Want to beat the shift? Spray the ball all over the park, or bunt to the open side of the infield. Those are exciting plays by (usually) exciting players. The shift gives teams an incentive to develop multitalented players rather than lumbering oxen who’s only aim is to pull the ball in the air. Now, that incentive will be eliminated and the game will get even more boring.
   26. SoSH U at work Posted: September 08, 2022 at 11:09 PM (#6095365)
Those are exciting plays by (usually) exciting players. The shift gives teams an incentive to develop multitalented players rather than lumbering oxen who’s only aim is to pull the ball in the air.


That's the thing that often gets lost. Yes, Joey Gallo may never learn to go the other way (and perhaps he shouldn't), but if the shift reduces the effectiveness of that type of player, then there should be fewer of them who are worth putting on the roster/playing.
   27. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: September 08, 2022 at 11:18 PM (#6095366)
Why are some folks confident that Joey Gallo will greatly benefit from the elimination of the shift? Isn't the problem that he and other dead-pull hitters are incentivized to hit over the shift, not around it?

Heck, maybe MLB should have considered prohibiting the construction of new ballparks with outfield dimensions that convince even ninth-place hitters to swing for the fences?
   28. cardsfanboy Posted: September 08, 2022 at 11:34 PM (#6095367)
I will continue to argue for smaller gloves, basically every fielder (except first baseman and catcher) should have a glove that is equivalent to a typical 1970's second baseman glove. Beyond that, the only rules that I really care for is to (as post 2 points out) enforce the rules as written.
   29. Brian C Posted: September 08, 2022 at 11:38 PM (#6095369)
By definition the shift punishes the kind of all-or-nothing hitter who’s made baseball less interesting over the last 30 years. Want to beat the shift? Spray the ball all over the park, or bunt to the open side of the infield. Those are exciting plays by (usually) exciting players. The shift gives teams an incentive to develop multitalented players rather than lumbering oxen who’s only aim is to pull the ball in the air.

Except that shifts are legal now and obviously that hasn't led to this actually happening? What's happened instead is that teams decided they could just live with outs hit into the shift in order not to sacrifice power.

Now I agree that banning shifts probably won't make much difference here, but it's not like the preponderance of shifts has led to teams developing more spray hitters, even with defenses ceding half the field. In essence, this is MLB admitting defeat, and saying that since teams are going to run a bunch of pull hitters out there regardless, we might as well let them get a few more singles and thus more frequent baserunners.

All in all, it's probably going to end up being something that has little real effect and everyone forgets about pretty quickly.
   30. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: September 08, 2022 at 11:40 PM (#6095370)
The limitation on "disengagements" (including pickoffs) is a necessity if you're going to have a pitch clock. Otherwise pitchers were just stepping off whenever they wanted and resetting it.


The obvious solution here is to not have it reset when they step off. Once the pitcher gets the ball, the clock starts. (Doesn't solve the "catchers can waste time before throwing it back" problem though.)

But mostly I'm hung up on the fact that WE ALREADY HAVE A ####### PITCH CLOCK. How is proposing a pitch clock going to do anything when we've got a pitch clock and it doesn't do anything? A much simpler solution would be to tell umpires that their annual evaluations will include whether they enforced the clock that's already on the books. Get pitchers throwing within 12 seconds real fast if umpire's pay depends on it.
   31. SoSH U at work Posted: September 08, 2022 at 11:41 PM (#6095371)
Why are some folks confident that Joey Gallo will greatly benefit from the elimination of the shift? Isn't the problem that he and other dead-pull hitters are incentivized to hit over the shift, not around it?


He may be incentivized to hit over it, but he's not going to be successful at that all the time. Balls he hits that would be base hits are turned into outs (in fact, that's why they do it) by the shift, and if you get rid of the shift more of the balls he doesn't hit over the fence will get through.

He's not going to greatly benefit from it, because he simply doesn't put enough balls in play for any type of scheme to do much. But getting rid of the shift will likely make him a better offensive player than he is now.
   32. SoSH U at work Posted: September 08, 2022 at 11:43 PM (#6095373)
Except that shifts are legal now and obviously that hasn't led to this actually happening? What's happened instead is that teams decided they could just live with outs hit into the shift in order not to sacrifice power.


Certainly it isn't enough on its own to incentivize that. But it is still a move in the wrong direction.
   33. Doug Jones threw harder than me Posted: September 09, 2022 at 01:58 AM (#6095380)
ut it is still a move in the wrong direction.


I agree that banning the shift is, in some sense, a move in the wrong direction. "spray-type" hitters have it difficult enough nowadays with the presence of fungible flame-throwing relievers. My prediction:

a) There will be some creative positioning after the pitch is thrown that will effectively make this rule a lot less effective than at first glance. Will be interesting, at least, to see how that strategy evolves.

b) Even so, the aggregate BABIP will probably go up, which can only help line-drive hitters in contrast to hitters like Joey Gallo or Adam Dunn.
   34. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 02:07 AM (#6095381)
What I'd do.....

• A 15 second pitch clock with the bases empty and a 20 second clock with runners on.

Simply enforce the written rule that already exists. If the pitcher isn't ready, call a ball. If the batter is delaying things and the pitcher pitches on time, call a strike if it crosses the plate.

• Two disengagements from the rubber - which includes pick-off attempts—per plate appearance.

Sure, whatever. Anything encouraging more base stealing is a good thing. But does this mean after a 2nd failed pickoff attempt that the runner can try to advance at any time and the pitcher must deliver a pitch instead of stepping off and making a play on the advancing runner?

• A requirement by hitters to be in the batter’s box and ‘alert’ with 8 seconds to go on the clock. Hitters are allowed one timeout per plate appearance.

Fine with me if the batter waits until the pitcher is into his windup to jump into the box. Tell the ump to call any pitch a strike if it crosses the plate. The pitcher controls the flow of action, not the batter. If time isn't called, pitchers should be able to pitch as soon as they're ready (rules against quick-pitching aside).

• Only two infielders will be allowed on each side of second base with all four required to be on the dirt (or inner grass).

• Infielders cannot position themselves on the outfield grass before the pitch is thrown.


Boo. Solutions in search of problems.

• Bases will increase in size from 15 square inches to 18.

Never understood what problem bigger bases are supposed to solve except for moving bang-bang plays 3" closer. I think this falls into another Manfredian non-solution to anything, like the auto-IBB.
   35. Bruce Chen's Huge Panamanian Robot Posted: September 09, 2022 at 05:39 AM (#6095383)
I hate all of this.
   36. TomH Posted: September 09, 2022 at 06:51 AM (#6095384)
"But does this mean after a 2nd failed pickoff attempt that the runner can try to advance at any time and the pitcher must deliver a pitch instead of stepping off and making a play on the advancing runner?"
No. A third pickoff can be made; but it must result in an out, or the runner is awarded the base.
   37. TomH Posted: September 09, 2022 at 06:51 AM (#6095385)
"let the kids play" - don't ban the shift
"make the kids play" - enforce the clock and step-out rules
   38. . Posted: September 09, 2022 at 07:23 AM (#6095389)
Verducci has the parade of horribles in SI.com, which we can all both intuit and see with our own eyes -- but let's summarize.

1. Three hour, seven minute average game time.

2. Rise in time between balls in play between 1985 and 2022 of a full minute.

3. A decrease in BABIP on hard-hit ground balls (86 MPH+) of 44 points (352-308) since the shifts got rolling in 2015. Twenty-eight point drop since 2019. (*)

4. Big impact on all-around, contra-oaf superstars. Joey Votto's GB BABIP has fallen from 246 to 187 as the shifts he's faced have risen from 19 to 54 percent. Mookie's has fallen 112 points (!!) as his faced shift percentage has risen from 1 to 61 percent between '15 and '22. Not that one is necessary, but this is a mic drop deal killer for the shift. Enough already.

5. As infielders have started to play weird, shifty, fake positions, the number of plays we see them make has fallen dramatically. Ozzie made 6 plays per game for the '82 Cardinals. Nico Hoerner, the defensive saves leader at SS this year, makes 3.7. I and a lot of us want to see shortstops make shortstop plays from shortstop areas of the field, and for clods to no longer be posted at second base because the spreadsheets (and the strikeouts, of course) can cover up their defensive deficiencies.

6. In 1992, 18 players stole 40 bases. Last year, two.

This one is interesting and makes some sense, if you believe the premises of plodding oafball. Small sample size, so I'm not ready to declare victory yet -- but pitcher injuries were down 26% in the minors post-pitch clock. Maybe that extra "recovery time" the pitcher gets while he just stands there interminably glazed-eyed staring leads to being able to give just that right amount of "extra" that at the margin, elbows blow. Certainly makes some intuitive sense.

(*) Everyone loves Walt Davis's analyses and postings and he's obviously not doing this on purpose, but he always uses the relatively tiny change on all GB BABIP when analyzing the shift's impact. The hard hit GB numbers tell an entirely different story.
   39. McCoy Posted: September 09, 2022 at 08:15 AM (#6095392)
It would be nice to then look at how often batters are putting balls on the ground before passing judgement on the shift.

My guess is batters are putting less balls on the ground and that probably has more to do with lower BABIP than the shift.

Strikeouts and flyballs are way up. Shift or no shift infielders are going to be making less plays.
   40. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: September 09, 2022 at 08:17 AM (#6095394)
I'm happy about the pitch clock. I know "just enforce the existing rule" argument but it's pretty clear that MLB isn't going to do that so this is the option. I don't like banning the shift but like #1 it's just not a hill I'm prepared to die on. BABIP in 1987 was .289, this year it's .292. The pick off rules thing seems like something that might be pretty important and similarly I won't be surprised if it makes not a single bit of difference. Not quite sure what the bigger bases will do. I'm assuming the edge of the bases is still 90 feet point to point.

cfb is 100% right about smaller gloves but I suspect that isn't even on anyone's radar.
   41. . Posted: September 09, 2022 at 08:20 AM (#6095396)
I (we) don't want good hitters to artificially be putting balls into the air because the dumb-arse shift spreadsheet bogarts a bunch of their would-be groundball hits.

Everyone always says, "Just adapt, just change your game." But we don't want people like Mookie Betts doing that. Why on Earth would we?
   42. BDC Posted: September 09, 2022 at 09:32 AM (#6095402)
I've mentioned this in various venues, probably here at some point, but: watching minor-league games where the shift was not allowed, this summer, was basically fine. You don't notice the lack of a shift. The ban is stupid and unnecessary, but on a play-by-play basis, things look the same as they've always looked; the fielders are just always playing close to straightaway.

I don't know what the effect will be. As SoSH says, the dead-pull launch-angle LHBs are very likely to get a few extra singles out of the ban. I'm not sure that's going to fire up fanbases nationwide, but it's still going to look like baseball.
   43. BDC Posted: September 09, 2022 at 09:38 AM (#6095403)
As to the pitch clock – the rules seem fussy, as others have said. But anything's fine if it really improves on guys taking 25-35 seconds between pitches.

I do wonder though, if à la Mound Visits, they will have to add boxes on the scoreboard for Disengagements and Batter Timeout :)
   44. . Posted: September 09, 2022 at 09:42 AM (#6095404)
I don't know what the effect will be. As SoSH says, the dead-pull launch-angle LHBs are very likely to get a few extra singles out of the ban.


Well, hopefully, as BABIP goes back up to proper levels on hard hit balls from regular, non-oafish swings, launch angle will revert back to its proper proportion of necessity and the oafs and the clods and the half-wits will be weeded out. Won't happen overnight, but will happen. The game will be far better as a result.
   45. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: September 09, 2022 at 09:52 AM (#6095406)
I don't like banning the shift but like #1 it's just not a hill I'm prepared to die on.
Just curious, Jose: What on-the-diamond rule change would be a hill in which to die on?
   46. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 09:54 AM (#6095407)

I wish they would just start with the one big, obvious change of enforcing the pitch clock and see how that goes first. (Well, I really wish they would have done it 5-10 years ago.) I have a feeling some of these other issues would then take care of themselves.


4. Big impact on all-around, contra-oaf superstars. Joey Votto's GB BABIP has fallen from 246 to 187 as the shifts he's faced have risen from 19 to 54 percent. Mookie's has fallen 112 points (!!) as his faced shift percentage has risen from 1 to 61 percent between '15 and '22. Not that one is necessary, but this is a mic drop deal killer for the shift. Enough already.

Can't find the article you're referring to, but something seems counterintuitive here, since Betts' overall batting average has only gone down 11 points from '15 to '22, and his GB% hasn't changed that much (38.0% to 34.4%).

5. As infielders have started to play weird, shifty, fake positions, the number of plays we see them make has fallen dramatically. Ozzie made 6 plays per game for the '82 Cardinals. Nico Hoerner, the defensive saves leader at SS this year, makes 3.7. I and a lot of us want to see shortstops make shortstop plays from shortstop areas of the field, and for clods to no longer be posted at second base because the spreadsheets (and the strikeouts, of course) can cover up their defensive deficiencies.

The point of the shift is to increase the number of plays made by the infielders, so I don't think that's the cause of the change you're noting above. I assume this has much more to do with more Ks, fewer balls-in-play and fewer ground balls as a % of BIP, and less to do with the shift.
   47. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 10:06 AM (#6095408)
I'm good with all of these. I could live without the ban on shifts since I'd like to see hitters and organizations adjust to a hitting philosophy that counters the shift, but I'm not torn up about it. The thing I like more about the rule is that it keeps infielders inside the outfield grass. Hard hit balls through the infield should be base hits.

It seems like people are really up in arms about using the existing pitch clock rules. While I'd love it as much as everyone else, it's not happening. They refuse to enforce it for whatever reason. The pitch clock they're implementing this year will be enforced, and apparently it's done wonders in the minor leagues. I'm really looking forward to it. The part about the batter being in the box and "alert" is a little bit weird - just let the pitcher throw the ball when he's ready and the call the pitch as you normally would. If the batter isn't "alert" then he's not going to be able to hit it. That's on him.

More stolen bases are good because stolen bases are fun in and of themselves, plus, as someone else mentioned, it enhances the value of players who reach base without hitting the ball over the fence. The larger bases and the pickoff attempt limitations will help with that.

I'm not convinced all of these are great ideas that are going to result in a fabulously more exciting game, but I do think all of them at least have a chance to help. And I don't think any of them will harm the game. I'm looking forward to seeing how the pitch clock in particular affects pitching - will it cause pitchers to throw a bit slower to conserve energy? Will we see more arm injuries than we already do if pitchers try to maintain their velocity?
   48. SandyRiver Posted: September 09, 2022 at 10:16 AM (#6095410)
--IMO, the pitch clock (and its being enforced) is the most important of the proposed changes. I wonder if MLB will install time clocks behind home plate, like the end zone clocks in the NFL, so pitchers don't need to mentally count off the seconds.
--Like others, I'm concerned that the disengagement rule would upset the balance between baserunners and battery. Calling a ball after a third time is better than a balk, but I'd prefer merely switching the clock to the shorter bases-empty time.
--Infielders, especially SS/2B, started playing out on the grass for slow power hitters long before the shift became common. As others have said, a solution in search of a problem.
--Banning the shift might not do anything more than moving the shortstop's pre-pitch position 15 feet to the left.
   49. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 10:18 AM (#6095411)

a) There will be some creative positioning after the pitch is thrown that will effectively make this rule a lot less effective than at first glance. Will be interesting, at least, to see how that strategy evolves.


Here are some results from how these rule changes worked in the minors. BABIP did go up six points in the Texas League with shift bans, and interestingly enough, right-handers enjoyed a greater bump. There is still some shifting.

Even in the second half, shortstops and second basemen could still steal hits up the middle by shading toward the opposite side of second and standing a step away from the bag, then crossing into the pre-pitch no-man’s-land after the ball was put in play. The Naturals, Badders says, were “still shifting every play, just not to the extremes that they otherwise might.”



The limitation on "disengagements" (including pickoffs) is a necessity if you're going to have a pitch clock. Otherwise pitchers were just stepping off whenever they wanted and resetting it.


Right, the pitch clock had no effect on game time in the minors until they instituted the pickoff rule.

   50. shoelesjoe Posted: September 09, 2022 at 10:32 AM (#6095414)
Joey Votto's GB BABIP has fallen from 246 to 187


Is it possible that Votto aging from 31 to 38 years old since shifting became prevalent had something to do with his reduced BABIP? Wouldn’t a reduction in BABIP be expected as a player went through his twilight years?
   51. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 09, 2022 at 10:34 AM (#6095415)
Here's something I'd like to see as a result of the pickoff limit: Start extra innings with a runner on first base, not second. This would force teams to take an extra step in order to get the ghost runner into scoring position.
   52. Greg Pope Posted: September 09, 2022 at 10:50 AM (#6095416)
I wish they would just start with the one big, obvious change of enforcing the pitch clock and see how that goes first. (Well, I really wish they would have done it 5-10 years ago.) I have a feeling some of these other issues would then take care of themselves.

I agree with this. I think we'll see a big change in the game just because of the pitch clock rule. The game will be faster. The pitchers will be a little more tired by their 10th pitch of the inning and lose a couple of MPH off of their fastball. Which will result in fewer K's and more contact. Hopefully. People will say that it's because of the banning of the shift or the bases or whatever.

But I don't care. The changes other than the pitch clock are minor annoyances that I can live with. The game should be vastly improved in many ways with the pitch clock so I'm in favor of this.

As pointed out above, if they had implemented just the pitch clock 10 years ago, we would have seen if that single change had as big of an effect as I think it will and then we wouldn't need these other ones. But that's not where we are, so this is a good (not great, not perfect) step.
   53. Russ Posted: September 09, 2022 at 10:54 AM (#6095417)
The shift rules are really stupid; it's the kind of thing you would get by hiring some external consulting firm to fix your business.
   54. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 10:59 AM (#6095418)

I wish they would just start with the one big, obvious change of enforcing the pitch clock and see how that goes first.


IIRC, they did this in the minors and it didn't really work? I guess you could emphasize it more, but do you really trust Angel Hernandez with this? I think removing the discretion from the umpires is a better idea, otherwise its going to be enforced haphazardly with a lot of ump show potential.
   55. SoSH U at work Posted: September 09, 2022 at 11:01 AM (#6095419)
More stolen bases are good because stolen bases are fun in and of themselves, plus, as someone else mentioned, it enhances the value of players who reach base without hitting the ball over the fence. The larger bases and the pickoff attempt limitations will help with that.


I don't think the excitement of the stolen base is ever returning to major league baseball. You can make them easier, which MLB seems determined to do, but a stolen base without the risk of a caught stealing is simply not exciting. And major league teams have decided that the risk of being put out on the base is simply not worth the reward of an extra base (much as they have come to similar conclusions about the sacrifice bunt and the unexciting base on balls).

I don't know what the particular breakeven point on an SB is at the moment, but teams seem to be using one far north of that.

So, sure you can make SBs much easier, but I don't think teams will try to steal more bases unless you've almost completely removed the risk. But if, and this is just a tossed out example, say 75 percent of future stolen base attempts resulted in no throw from the catcher, you wouldn't have a more exciting game*. You'd just have added a lot of catcher's indifference plays. I don't know what the exact number will be, but I'm pretty sure that the end result of these changes will not produce a more exciting baserunning environment, and I'm not sure anything will.

* Though, easier stolen bases does, as JAHV notes, increase the importance of reaching first, which can result in some indirect excitement gains.
   56. SoSH U at work Posted: September 09, 2022 at 11:02 AM (#6095420)
IIRC, they did this in the minors and it didn't really work? I guess you could emphasize it more, but do you really trust Angel Hernandez with this?


Interestingly, the only MLB umpire in the recent past who has made any effort to speed up the game was Angel Hernandez. It wasn't well received.
   57. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 11:27 AM (#6095424)
You can make them easier, which MLB seems determined to do, but a stolen base without the risk of a caught stealing is simply not exciting.


I think you're overstating how easy steals will be, we're talking about an increase in the success rate from 75% to 77%
   58. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 11:33 AM (#6095425)
The Athletic has more details.

• The catcher must be in the catcher’s box with nine seconds left on the timer.

• The hitter must have both feet set in the batter’s box and be “alert to the pitcher” — meaning he has his eyes on the pitcher, and can quickly take a hitting stance — within eight seconds.

• The timer starts when the pitcher has the ball, and the catcher and the batter are in the dirt near home plate and play is ready — meaning, runners have retreated if there was a foul ball, or exited the field after an out. (The pitch timer starts with the second pitch of the game.)

• In between batters, there is a 30-second clock, except for the final out of an inning. The timer for inning breaks and pitching changes is 2 minutes, 15 seconds.

• Pitchers who violate the clock are charged with an automatic ball. If a catcher violates the clock, an automatic ball is charged as well. Batters in violation receive an automatic strike. Umpires can also award a ball or strike if they detect a player circumventing the clocks, and the commissioner’s office could issue discipline beyond that to teams whose players or staff violate rules, as well.

• Pitchers can step off the mound for a pickoff or any other reasons — a “disengagement” it’s called — twice per plate appearance if there is a runner on base. But, if a runner advances during the same plate appearance, i.e., by stealing a base, the pitcher gets another two step-offs. Stepping off resets the clock to its full time (20 or 15 seconds depending on whether a runner is on).

• If a pitcher steps off a third time or more, the penalty depends on what happens. If the runners are safe, the pitchers are charged with a balk. If an out is recorded, like on a successful pickoff, no balk is charged. No balk is charged if a runner advances, either.

• If the defense requests time, a disengagement is assessed to the pitcher, with several exceptions, including mound meetings, an object on the field, injuries, or an appeal. Catchers giving signals to infielders doesn’t count as a disengagement as long as the catcher is back by nine seconds.

• Pitcher requests for a new baseball with nine seconds or more remaining on the pitch timer do not count as a disengagement, but do if there are less than nine seconds.

• Mound visits have a 30-second clock starting when the manager or coach leaves the dugout, or whenever the defensive player leaves their position. If a manager joined a mound visit in progress, the timer resets if there are at least 20 seconds left on the timer. The umpire has discretion to grant additional time if a manager or coach is dealing with a physical ailment. There is no timer if a trainer goes out with the manager or coach for “a bona fide medical issue.”

• Teams can newly get an additional mound visit in the ninth inning only (it is not carried over if unused to extra innings) if it has used up its allotment of mound visits previously.

• Batters can ask for and be granted time once per plate appearance, and have to ask for time orally. That resets the pitch clock. A batter who requests time a second time or more in the same plate appearance is to be charged with a strike — unless the batter stays in the batter’s box, then the umpire has discretion as to whether to charge a strike.

• The length of batter walk-up music cannot exceed 10 seconds. Music between pitches is to be limited so hitters aren’t encouraged to leave the box.

• “Extended inning events,” like the playing of “God Bless America,” or anything that stops all action in the ballpark, requires approval from the commissioner’s office, and advance notice of those approved events has to go to the MLBPA.

• The pitch timer cannot be reviewed on replay.

• Umpires have sole discretion to direct the start, stop or reset of the timer if the clock operator makes a mistake or a special circumstance applies, such as a catcher not having enough time to put on equipment after running the bases or a medical concern. (They would reset the clock to 20 or 15 seconds).
   59. SoSH U at work Posted: September 09, 2022 at 11:34 AM (#6095426)
I think you're overstating how easy steals will be, we're talking about an increase in the success rate from 75% to 77%.


And if it doesn't increase the success rate much, it won't increase the attempt rate much. That's the point.

By the way, the anecdote in question, while not necessarily illustrative of the issue, did not produce more exciting baserunning.
   60. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 09, 2022 at 11:41 AM (#6095427)
Teams can newly get an additional mound visit in the ninth inning only (it is not carried over if unused to extra innings) if it has used up its allotment of mound visits previously.
Wait, isn't this the opposite of picking up the pace?
   61. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 11:50 AM (#6095429)
How about no mound visits? Period.

If the pitcher and catcher can't get their signs set before the game, too bad. If the manager wants to take out the pitcher, just yell from the dugout.
   62. Tim M Posted: September 09, 2022 at 11:52 AM (#6095430)
batter walk-up music


Must.. resist...
   63. BDC Posted: September 09, 2022 at 11:56 AM (#6095433)
The shift rules are really stupid; it's the kind of thing you would get by hiring some external consulting firm to fix your business

Yes, I think back to TFA for one of these threads where the explicit rationale was that many balls hit to right field somehow "ought to" be hits; that the shift was unfairly eating them up. I dunno, I guess … if they didn't allow fielders at all everything would be a hit, right? Why are people so concerned that fielders catch baseballs?
   64. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 11:57 AM (#6095434)

This is probably too many changes at once. if they were all implemented at the same time then umpires will have additional responsbilities to: manage the pitch clock, track the movement of infielders and stepping off/throwing over.

The biggest concern is that they will vote for all these changes, some of which probably wont really change the game much (bigger bases, banning shifts) along with some that we dont know the exact effect (3 throw overs), and then come May 1 they will stop enforcing the pitch clock. So you will get all the crap you didn't want or didnt really think was important and the one thing you did want, you wont get.

Because why are all these things up for consideration at the same time? That's very curious. Cant we just do the pitch clock thing and see what happens from there?
   65. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: September 09, 2022 at 12:29 PM (#6095438)
More good than bad here, but yeah, I don't like banning the shift or the limitation on pickoffs.

The article is unclear, are these being voted on as a package, or each change is being voted on individually?

   66. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 12:44 PM (#6095440)
Yeah I was just gonna ask that: is this a package deal or waht? Then I read the article and figured i guess its one by one..?

But now that I think about it, knowing MLB they will vote this as a package and then throw up their hands when 2023 rolls around and people are getting balked to second at a record rate, and no one is enforcing the pitch clock, again.
   67. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: September 09, 2022 at 12:46 PM (#6095441)
The Athletic has more details.
FFS. Don't umpires -- and the skipper and his coaches, for that matter -- have enough on their plates already? Will Manfred not be satisfied until MLB has more rules than OSHA?
   68. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 01:13 PM (#6095445)

The hitter must have both feet set in the batter’s box and be “alert to the pitcher” — meaning he has his eyes on the pitcher, and can quickly take a hitting stance — within eight seconds.

Does this mean the pitcher isn't allowed to pitch until the batter is "alert to the pitcher"?
   69. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 01:15 PM (#6095447)
So, sure you can make SBs much easier, but I don't think teams will try to steal more bases unless you've almost completely removed the risk. But if, and this is just a tossed out example, say 75 percent of future stolen base attempts resulted in no throw from the catcher, you wouldn't have a more exciting game*. You'd just have added a lot of catcher's indifference plays. I don't know what the exact number will be, but I'm pretty sure that the end result of these changes will not produce a more exciting baserunning environment, and I'm not sure anything will.

* Though, easier stolen bases does, as JAHV notes, increase the importance of reaching first, which can result in some indirect excitement gains.


I don't necessarily agree with your conclusions. I think teams might steal more if success was more likely. I love a stolen base - the announcer, especially on the radio, getting excited when a runner is on the move is one of those fun baseball things that I'll never tire of. That will be the case no matter how much the catcher throws down.

And I'm good with runners stealing bases at will - the indirect excitement gains are the greater good in my opinion anyway. More baserunners is a wonderful thing, so a rule like this that increases the value of runners getting on base is a positive.

   70. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 01:16 PM (#6095448)
Jon Heyman reports that all the players on the committee voted against the changes but were outvoted by management
https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1568280288341463041
   71. Ron J Posted: September 09, 2022 at 01:20 PM (#6095450)
Further to #50 these kind of things are inherently noisy. I mean he hit .302 on GB in 2013 and .085 on GB in 2014

Exactly the kind of noise you'd expect in the sample size.
   72. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 09, 2022 at 01:23 PM (#6095451)
all the players on the committee voted against the changes
Because of f***ing course they did.
   73. . Posted: September 09, 2022 at 01:30 PM (#6095452)
Steals becoming easy is good. A single becoming a de facto, or quasi de facto, double raises the relative event value of a single -- which is exactly what we want.
   74. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: September 09, 2022 at 01:34 PM (#6095456)
I'm happy about the pitch clock. I know "just enforce the existing rule" argument but it's pretty clear that MLB isn't going to do that so this is the option.
Agree.

Except to add that I truly don't understand, especially given how long things have been evolving in this direction, how people think you can reasonably "just enforce the current rule" without a pitch clock. (And I say that as someone who recoiled hard at the idea of a pitch clock when it was first being broached.)

Is the ump supposed to silently count, and practice to make sure he can count off in perfect time? Or does he also have to hold a stopwatch while he's paying attention to everything else? Does the stopwatch beep audibly when he starts the count and again when it expires? Does it vibrate after time expires so as to be less disruptive and give him leeway if it's fractions of a second?

None of it is practical and I'm tired of people saying how easy it is. It's not, not without a mechanism at this point.

Games used to be faster with less time between pitches not because the umps constantly kept track and enforced it on every pitch, but because that's just how people had learned to play and what everyone did, and maybe because they generally knew there was a rule about it. MLB shouldn't have let things drift so far away from that for so long, but they did. So now players have over many years learned to play in a different way, and to ignore that rule that was rarely actually enforced previously. So at this point, the genie doesn't go back in the bottle without a visible mechanism applied as uniformly as possible.
   75. . Posted: September 09, 2022 at 01:34 PM (#6095457)
Because of f***ing course they did.


These rule changes threaten the status quo and therefore some players' jobs. That kind of thing tends not to be voted for. But, yes, there's a douche for douche sake factor involved too, for sure.

When the final verdict on this horrific era in baseball is written, I would commend the videotape of the Cincinnati Reds at Braves Suburb Park oafishly flailing with men in scoring position in extra innings in the 2020 playoffs. Aristedes Aquino's ABs were virtually beyond satire. I found myself nearly at the point of being personally offended, and if the game had been like the Iliad, Zeus and crew would have been been on the first train down from Mount Olympus. God would have turned the joint into a pillar of salt.
   76. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 01:39 PM (#6095459)
Cant we just do the pitch clock thing and see what happens from there?


They found the pitch clock didn't work unless you limited pitchers from stepping off.
   77. . Posted: September 09, 2022 at 01:41 PM (#6095460)
Bill James rightly called for a limit on pickoff throws decades ago.

It's long overdue.
   78. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 02:05 PM (#6095464)


They found the pitch clock didn't work unless you limited pitchers from stepping off.


I think the rule should be that you can step off twice per at-bat, but if the batter takes a lead of more than a certain distance, you can step off again. Or, if you step off and actually throw the runner out, then it doesn't count against you. Something like that.
   79. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 02:06 PM (#6095465)
Steals becoming easy is good. A single becoming a de facto, or quasi de facto, double raises the relative event value of a single -- which is exactly what we want.


Agreed. While I guess technically SoSH is arguing that this will not increase: "exciting baserunning" it should increase the value of a single and put more emphasis on obp at the expense of power. So I guess that's good .
   80. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 02:08 PM (#6095466)
They found the pitch clock didn't work unless you limited pitchers from stepping off.


No, I mean I get that. Its all the other stuff: smaller bases, no shifts.
   81. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: September 09, 2022 at 02:11 PM (#6095467)
When the final verdict on this horrific era in baseball is written, I would commend the videotape of the Cincinnati Reds at Braves Suburb Park oafishly flailing with men in scoring position in extra innings in the 2020 playoffs. Aristedes Aquino's ABs were virtually beyond satire. I found myself nearly at the point of being personally offended, and if the game had been like the Iliad, Zeus and crew would have been been on the first train down from Mount Olympus. God would have turned the joint into a pillar of salt.


The obituaries of Liz 2 aren't this overwrought.
   82. Doug Jones threw harder than me Posted: September 09, 2022 at 02:12 PM (#6095468)
This is probably too many changes at once. if they were all implemented at the same time then umpires will have additional responsbilities to: manage the pitch clock, track the movement of infielders and stepping off/throwing over.


The minor-league umpires managed quite well. Remember, the umpires have literally nothing to do all day except officiate the games and study the rulebook.

The games need more action. I went to a game in-person last night, and it's remarkably difficult for the crowd itself to stay focused on the game.
   83. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 02:12 PM (#6095469)

Games used to be faster with less time between pitches not because the umps constantly kept track and enforced it on every pitch, but because that's just how people had learned to play and what everyone did, and maybe because they generally knew there was a rule...



or as Bill James said: there used to be a natural clock: it was called sunset.
   84. PeteF3 Posted: September 09, 2022 at 02:34 PM (#6095472)
Or, if you step off and actually throw the runner out, then it doesn't count against you. Something like that.


That's the rule.
   85. . Posted: September 09, 2022 at 02:38 PM (#6095473)
Some news from the Athletic:

Position players are said to have provided feedback during the process indicating that they would take large leads to force pick-off attempts, and then — knowing at that point that a pitcher has only one pick-off attempt left — they’ll then use the clock, and a pitcher’s history, to steal. A pitcher might develop a history of consistently throwing before the clock hits, say, three seconds remaining. The feared end result is that there are more stolen bases that are not contested, without a chance for a catcher to throw out the runner.


All those bugs are actually features. We want that to happen. We want singles to be encouraged, and this encourages them. Same with stolen bases.

Because teams can challenge whether a player was in an illegal position before a pitch, players worry that a tiny infraction — an inch over — will lead to the erasure of some major moments, even if it didn’t impact the outcome of the play or pitch.


Then don't go an "inch over." Just play it straight without a bunch of bullshit. Players in football, e.g., are an inch offsides and plays are negated. Same with soccer. Baseball's a game of inches, they say -- and now it is even more. Stop ########.

Players are concerned about the timer’s effect on major situations, be it the postseason, or late-and-close games in the regular season; moments when pitchers might otherwise take extra time to collect themselves and reset.


Nobody wants to see you "collect and reset." Players don't "collect and reset" in football, basketball, etc. They play. If you can't play without doing that, well -- the world need ditch diggers, too.



   86. Doug Jones threw harder than me Posted: September 09, 2022 at 02:39 PM (#6095474)
there used to be a natural clock: it was called sunset.


Exactly. And because of that, there was a built-in ethic to the game - if you screwed around and wasted time players would get on your case, or if you were a batter, the pitchers would throw at you. But what happened was this - players (both batters and pitchers) realized they performed better if they took more time, and as there was no clock and no other external impetus to speed things up, the peer-pressure disappeared as players informally agreed to extend a courtesy to each other not to try to hurrry things up. Umpires, being human, "went with the flow" because neither side, offense or defense, wanted things sped up - and this dynamic fed on itself till we have what we have today, where Steve Trachsel would be one of the faster workers in the game.

Question: Can we blame all our ills on Mike Hargrove?
   87. The Duke Posted: September 09, 2022 at 02:49 PM (#6095475)
Has there been any formal info put out on what constitutes a "shift"? I thought i read that they wanted a line drawn from mound to 15 ft of either side of 2nd base which would keep the "up the middle " hits clean
   88. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: September 09, 2022 at 02:52 PM (#6095477)
Duke, that's not in the rule that was voted on. Just that each team must have two players on either side of second base.
   89. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 09, 2022 at 02:55 PM (#6095478)
Players are concerned about the timer’s effect on major situations, be it the postseason, or late-and-close games in the regular season; moments when pitchers might otherwise take extra time to collect themselves and reset.
What the players don't seem to get is that these changes are *intended* to have effects. "But it will make me change the way I do things in certain situations!!" Yes. That's the entire point. What you want to do is shite entertainment, so you don't get to do that anymore. Feature, not bug.
   90. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 02:55 PM (#6095479)
All I've seen is that two defenders must be on either side of second base. So you can presumably still play up the middle, so long as you're on the appropriate side. Also nothing to prevent outfield shifts.
   91. PeteF3 Posted: September 09, 2022 at 03:02 PM (#6095480)
Players must be on (or in front of) the dirt, as well. No more second basemen playing shallow right field.
   92. McCoy Posted: September 09, 2022 at 03:05 PM (#6095481)
I seriously doubt players gave a fig about sunset. More likely it was owners and the majors that cared and they charged umps with getting games in before darkness.

Would love to see the ratio of balls to strikes as the game gets closer to being called.
   93. SoSH U at work Posted: September 09, 2022 at 03:07 PM (#6095483)

I love a stolen base - the announcer, especially on the radio, getting excited when a runner is on the move is one of those fun baseball things that I'll never tire of. That will be the case no matter how much the catcher throws down.


Do you enjoy catcher's indifference plays?

Agreed. While I guess technically SoSH is arguing that this will not increase: "exciting baserunning" it should increase the value of a single and put more emphasis on obp at the expense of power. So I guess that's good .


A stolen base without any threat of an out is not very exciting. It's the possibility a runner will get gunned down, the risk, that makes the play - any baserunning play - the best part of the game. I don't know how anyone can possibly believe otherwise.

Now, I absolutely agree, and previously acknowledged, that if you turn a single into a double or triple by making the caught stealing virtually impossible, then that will undoubtedly increase the value of a single (which has value). But I'd rather MLB try to improve the value of putting the ball in play some other way than turning major league baseball into Forest Park Little League.

   94. . Posted: September 09, 2022 at 03:32 PM (#6095485)
A stolen base without any threat of an out is not very exciting.


That's a significant exaggeration in two respects. First there won't be "any threat of an out" disappearing. That's a massive overbid. There will likely be "less of a threat of an out," and maybe even a material one -- but that's entirely different than "no threat."

Second, yes, a runner like Rickey getting so good a jump and being so fast that the catcher cries uncle and doesn't even throw is quite exciting.

(I guess there's a statistical third, which is that the threat of an out can't just be measured by percentage CS because that data point is dependent on attempts. If the easier SB elicits more attempts, the CS% may not even actually drop.)

All I've seen is that two defenders must be on either side of second base.


Can't be on the grass. I also saw this morning that teams had to designate two "left side infielders" and two "right side infielders" who had to stay in those roles the entire game. Not sure if that made it through the final vote. I'm indifferent to this. If teams want to move a better fielding SS to 2B for the occasional LHB, have at it. Could be interesting strategy and the 2Bs who would ##### about "the team's lack of confidence" and whatnot is what we should be encouraging. I'm also fine with a game-long designation.

I'm ecstatic about these rule changes. Makes me way more into it. I'll probably be way more into it the rest of '22 even though I know I'm watching a vastly inferior version of the sport.
   95. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 03:51 PM (#6095489)

That's a significant exaggeration in two respects. First there won't be "any threat of an out" disappearing. That's a massive overbid. There will likely be "less of a threat of an out," and maybe even a material one -- but that's entirely different than "no threat."


you have absolutely no idea what will happen when all these changes are implemented at the same time, and yet you continue to pontificate as if you know all. Remember when you offered 500:1 odds that Trump wouldn't do anything extra legal to challenge the election? or that there was no way Ortiz could play 1b when the WS moved to Denver? or that there was no way the ALJ could give ARod more than a 50 game suspension?

Baseball remembers.
   96. SoSH U at work Posted: September 09, 2022 at 03:51 PM (#6095490)
That's a significant exaggeration in two respects. First there won't be "any threat of an out" disappearing. That's a massive overbid. There will likely be "less of a threat of an out," and maybe even a material one -- but that's entirely different than "no threat."


As noted, I don't think the stolen base rate goes up meaningfully unless the threat really is virtually non-existent. Teams have largely abandoned the SB, the bunt and the IBB. They've done so becuase htey've concluded it's not the percentage play. I see no reason to believe pushing the SB success rate from 80 to 82 percent is going to move the needle much on attempts.

Second, yes, a runner like Rickey getting so good a jump and being so fast that the catcher cries uncle and doesn't even throw is quite exciting.


Not if it happens regularly, it isn't.

I don't think anything brings truly exciting baserunning back to MLB.
   97. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 03:52 PM (#6095491)
Now, I absolutely agree, and previously acknowledged, that if you turn a single into a double or triple by making the caught stealing virtually impossible, then that will undoubtedly increase the value of a single (which has value). But I'd rather MLB try to improve the value of putting the ball in play some other way than turning major league baseball into Forest Park Little League.


yeah I agree. I dont want to see them cheapen the ability to steal bases which seems very much a risk here.
   98. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 03:53 PM (#6095492)
just for the sake of completeness: apparently all the reps voted for the larger bases thing.
   99. Walt Davis Posted: September 09, 2022 at 03:53 PM (#6095493)
I don't think the effect of the proposed changes on SB success will be nearly so dramatic but if you did make the SB easy enough (for fast players) then there's little/no benefit to a fast player trying to stretch a single into a double, leading to less exciting baserunning.

McCoy asked for GBs, along with BAgb

2021 51,970 239
2019 53,574 238
2018 54,423 242
2017 55,990 245
2016 57,328 246
...
2011 58,885 237
2006 58,858 240

So GBs are down by 9.3% over the last 5 years and another 2-3% if we look back further. Again, you beat the shift by hitting it over the shift.

Votto (#GBs BAgb)
2015 174 224
2016 196 265
2017 192 245
2018 154 201
2019 153 203
2020 57 193
2021 108 148
2022 101 178

(Note the really small sample sizes; you'd expect BAgb to bounce around a lot.)

Interestingly, in 2014 in just 43 games. Votto went 6-71 on GBs. Note Votto has dropped from 650-700 PAs a year to 533 last year and probably under 450 for this year so that's a chunk of the drop in #GBs over the last couple of years. The big change there was 2018 (age 34) -- if they waited until then to shift on him or they shifted in better ways then he adjusted quickly by hitting the ball over the shift. Obviously the loss of GB singles didn't help but the big drop in value was that he hit 65 HRs in 2016-17 and just 27 in 2018-19. He bounced back to a 139 OPS+ in 2021 primarily because he bounced back to 36 HRs.

For his career, Votto always hit fewer GBs than the average batter (not by a lot) and pulled the ball (overall) slightly less than the average player. His success was hitting for reasonable power with a reasonable K-rate and a very good LD rate with an extremely low pop-up rate. If there was an effect of shifts on Votto's decline (which might have just been age), it's that hitting the ball over the shift led to more pop-ups.

At his peak, Votto was hitting LDs 35% of the time (when he made contact) which is crazy high. That's now down to 25% which is still above-average. Possibly those LDs to short RF started becoming outs and he stopped hitting them ... or maybe he got old and couldn't catch up to as much as he used to.
   100. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 09, 2022 at 04:04 PM (#6095496)

Not if it happens regularly, it isn't.


Honest question, was there ever talk in the 80s about stolen bases becoming too ubiquitous? You had Henderson and Coleman stealing over 100 bases with 80 percent steal rates and even guys Bill Doran and Gerald Perry could swipe 40 in a season.
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