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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Friday, February 17, 2023Manny Machado free agency: Superstar third baseman plans to opt out of Padres deal with five years, $150M left
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: February 17, 2023 at 11:02 AM | 40 comment(s)
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1. Accent Shallow is still reading xi as squiggle Posted: February 17, 2023 at 12:23 PM (#6117603)I'm a little surprised to see a quote to this effect, given that usually you get "We'll see how the process plays out after this season. Right now I'm focused on helping the team in 2023." or whatever.
Somebody hasn't heard yet that the RSN's are all about to declare bankruptcy.
As a rule I think most opt outs work out pretty well for the team. If the player is opting out he's played well enough to be worth more and that's good and a lot of times you can avoid those bad out years on the contract. Like I'm pissed on a number of levels that the Sox let Xander get away, they blew that. But once he hit free agency I mean he's on a short list of my favorite ever Red Sox and I agree with Walt that I'd rather have Machado than Bogaerts.
The back end of the contract is always the decline years. So if Machado doesn’t opt out those are the decline years. But as soon as he signs a new long term after opting out those years now become the bargain years at the beginning of a contract. That’s just how it works.
Oh, and don’t you hate pants?
Unfortunately he has yet to prove this, so he will have to do so in the coming years. Lots of time missed to injury as a rookie, healthy for a short Covid season, lots of time missed to injury in 2021, and that's the last time he played.
I guess LAD could sign machado and ohtani and be in pretty good shape
As great as Machado is, and as nice as it would be to have him back in orange and black, the last thing the Orioles need is more infielders, especially a third baseman. Their incumbent third baseman just won the Gold Glove at the position. Their #1 rookie this coming season is primarily a third baseman. Their minor league player of the year in 2022 plays a decent third base. And one of their top AA prospects is a power hitting third baseman.
And the other 35 top 10 prospects they have are all SSs.
That's been baked in the cake throughout this past free agency insanity.
Machado may not be everyone's cup of tea, but he's a future HOFer. I wouldn't be surprised to see either of the NY teams consider him.
Would be a kick if he replaced Donaldson.
Machado may not be everyone's cup of tea, but he's a future HOFer.
Welllllll, 52 WAR thru age 29 is pretty good...but with his lack of rings and MVPs, he'd better get at least 70 (or pick up some rings and MVPs)...
If he ages well, Machado will be deep in no-brainer territory, a la Chipper Jones (80 WAR). If he has a somewhat disappointing (though not terrible) 30's, he'll still finish on par with Rolen and Santo (70 WAR). Even a near complete cliff dive will leave him at a borderline 60-ish WAR. Ken Griffey Jr's post Seattle career or Albert Pujols Angels stint (both 13 WAR) would still leave Machado at a probable HOF 65 WAR.
Barring an early retirement, career ending injury, or PED (or other disqualifying character) revelations, he's getting in.
If he wants to be a career Padre, he'll earn the HR title.
If not, the original Mr. Padre Nate Colbert will prevail!
(And honestly, the Padres team HR record is so embarrassingly low that none of those guys will even need to spend the rest of their career with the team to surpass it. Hell, Tatis is already halfway there in just 273 career games!)
I dont understand the reasoning here. If all the players in MLB are conditioning themselves the same way there should still be a decline phase based on whatever inherent things come with ageing: eyesight, flexibility, injury time, etc. Is there some reason to think players are declining at less than the recent historical levels?
That's essentially what they're paying X over those same calendar years/ages. It's a "fair" offer but also one that seems to be saying "we have one of you already."
I dont understand the reasoning here.
He's talking about ages 32-36. Teams have historically been quite comfortable signing players through age 36 and ages 32-33 are often very good seasons. This offseason they seemed to decide even that is old thinking and that, between deferment, reducing the CBT hit and current aging, that going through 39-40 isn't that big of a deal. I've got serious doubts about that but no I wouldn't be too worred about Machado 32-36 at 5/$150 at today's prices. The "problem" with #9 is that the Padres don't have him for 5/$150 but, in fairness, this seemed to be the "decline phase" that the early posts were glad the Padres would be missing.
Yeah, 3B has been a bit of an oddity from HOF a representation perspective, but we've been in a bit of a golden era for a while now. Jones and Rolen overlapped almost for the entirety of their careers, and Beltre is coming along shortly. Then active players Arenado and Machado are nearing hit by a bus status, and I think Jose Ramirez is also looking really good. Longoria I don't think will get in given his decline, but HOVG for sure, and Donaldson might also fit into that category, especially if he hadn't had such a late start. Bregman was off to a flying start, but 2020 and 2021 hurt him. If he can rebound strongly over the next five seasons, he still might make it; he's still young enough to turn it around, or even if he doesn't come all the way back, he could be one more for the HOVG category.
At least 10 years 300M but $350M would not be crazy.
On MM's future, yes 28 WAR over the next 5 seems optimistic -- he's been at 5.3 per 650 over the last 5 years. But 20-24 WAR is certainly reasonable. Only the last 4 of those are part of the opt-out period through so for 32-36 we might be talking something more like 18-22 WAR which is still worth $150 M. And yes, I'd guess around 10/$300 at the high end (Turner got 11/$300) and probably closer to 10/$270 or 9/$260 or something. Basically the same $ and the same ending age but higher AAV than Turner and Bogaerts
After the completely foreseeable injuries to the Red Sox starting middle infield dreck the Sox will turn to a fully rested and fired up Dustin Pedroia to help limp them through the season. May 21st rolls around and after back to back walks Pedroia is on 2nd with no one out. There's a hard hit ball to deep 1B and Cronenworth decides to try to get the (rather slow) lead runner. Pedroia starts to have flash backs to a certain Oriole-at-the-time coming in hard with cleats high...there's a close play at 3B...
We can all dream, right?
Given their history, there would be a beautiful symmetry to Machado replacing Donaldson. I don't dislike Machado; I've actually come to appreciate just how great a player he is. Kind of like a more likeable version of Gary Sheffield. (How's that for a low bar?) Donaldson, on the other hand, I find completely detestable.
Machado finalizing extension with Padres
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