“There’s a lot of money out there,” he told reporters (including Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). “As a player about to opt out, it’s pretty good to see.”

I'm a little surprised to see a quote to this effect, given that usually you get "We'll see how the process plays out after this season. Right now I'm focused on helping the team in 2023." or whatever.

He will be 31. His opting out might actually work out pretty well for the Padres.

I'd be very happy with this if I were the Padres. Let someone else pay for Machado's decline years.

He ain't opted out yet, let's see how the season goes. And of course SD just agreed to 11/$280 for X who's only 3 months younger so they seem to have a different view on decline phases. Certainly for the same money I would rather have Machado

There's a lot of money out there

Somebody hasn't heard yet that the RSN's are all about to declare bankruptcy.

He will be 31. His opting out might actually work out pretty well for the Padres.

As a rule I think most opt outs work out pretty well for the team. If the player is opting out he's played well enough to be worth more and that's good and a lot of times you can avoid those bad out years on the contract. Like I'm pissed on a number of levels that the Sox let Xander get away, they blew that. But once he hit free agency I mean he's on a short list of my favorite ever Red Sox and I agree with Walt that I'd rather have Machado than Bogaerts.

Silly Walt,

The back end of the contract is always the decline years. So if Machado doesn’t opt out those are the decline years. But as soon as he signs a new long term after opting out those years now become the bargain years at the beginning of a contract. That’s just how it works.

Oh, and don’t you hate pants?

Hmm. The politic thing to say would have been to reference renegotiation as a possible solution. Does this imply that the padres and machado have already agreed to disagree ?

He'll be 36 and 3 months at the end of this contract, that's nota decline phase I'd be too worried about given athletic conditioning these days. I'd rather pay that than X's 25MM until he's 40.

Tatis will have to re-prove that he can be a reliable player, but if he does, then SD will have him and Boegarts available to slide over to 3B. Machado has been excellent as a Padre, but in this case he's not irreplaceable.

I don't know where to post this but Rolen chose the cardinals hat over the Phillies hat. Yeah!!

I thought Machado was a ######### before he signed in SD. I've been happy he's played so well, but there's definitely still a douchiness to him, and I will not be sad to see him go even though his performance will be hard to replace.

Tatis will have to re-prove that he can be a reliable player,

Unfortunately he has yet to prove this, so he will have to do so in the coming years. Lots of time missed to injury as a rookie, healthy for a short Covid season, lots of time missed to injury in 2021, and that's the last time he played.

I have been struggling as an A's fan, and it occurred to me to try and become a Padres fan. I have good friends in SD (who are baseball fans), and Bob Melvin is there... But I effing hate Manny Machado and couldn't do it. Now if Machado were to jump ship to say the Yankees or the Giants, I could support the Padres while continuing to hate Machado even more. So I hope this happens for my own twisted sake.

I guess there are a number of teams he could land with. Be a good fit for baltimore and they have tons of room.

I guess LAD could sign machado and ohtani and be in pretty good shape

Seattle. Except they wouldn’t pay him.

Be a good fit for baltimore and they have tons of room.

As great as Machado is, and as nice as it would be to have him back in orange and black, the last thing the Orioles need is more infielders, especially a third baseman. Their incumbent third baseman just won the Gold Glove at the position. Their #1 rookie this coming season is primarily a third baseman. Their minor league player of the year in 2022 plays a decent third base. And one of their top AA prospects is a power hitting third baseman.

As great as Machado is, and as nice as it would be to have him back in orange and black, the last thing the Orioles need is more infielders, especially a third baseman. Their incumbent third baseman just won the Gold Glove at the position. Their #1 rookie this coming season is primarily a third baseman. Their minor league player of the year in 2022 plays a decent third base. And one of their top AA prospects is a power hitting third baseman.

And the other 35 top 10 prospects they have are all SSs.

Somebody hasn't heard yet that the RSN's are all about to declare bankruptcy.

That's been baked in the cake throughout this past free agency insanity.

Machado may not be everyone's cup of tea, but he's a future HOFer. I wouldn't be surprised to see either of the NY teams consider him.
Would be a kick if he replaced Donaldson.

A shame. Manny (108 HR as a Padre) was only a few good years away from passing Nate Colbert (163)...

Machado may not be everyone's cup of tea, but he's a future HOFer.

Welllllll, 52 WAR thru age 29 is pretty good...but with his lack of rings and MVPs, he'd better get at least 70 (or pick up some rings and MVPs)...

As off key as this message is, he's dispelled some of the worst of his reputation for being a jerk in his time with the Padres. He hasn't hit any more catchers with his follow through and smirked about it.

#20 - Machado's a gold glove 3B who will likely finish with well over 400 HR's. How many of those has there been in MLB history? Schmidt, Beltre, and....??? He (and his twin, Nolan Arenado) are near HOF locks, IMO.

If he ages well, Machado will be deep in no-brainer territory, a la Chipper Jones (80 WAR). If he has a somewhat disappointing (though not terrible) 30's, he'll still finish on par with Rolen and Santo (70 WAR). Even a near complete cliff dive will leave him at a borderline 60-ish WAR. Ken Griffey Jr's post Seattle career or Albert Pujols Angels stint (both 13 WAR) would still leave Machado at a probable HOF 65 WAR.

Barring an early retirement, career ending injury, or PED (or other disqualifying character) revelations, he's getting in.

 20. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: February 18, 2023 at 12:03 PM (#6117790)
A shame. Manny (108 HR as a Padre) was only a few good years away from passing Nate Colbert (163)..

If he wants to be a career Padre, he'll earn the HR title.

If not, the original Mr. Padre Nate Colbert will prevail!

#23 - Unless Soto or Tatis want to be a career Padre too, in which case one of them will set the new record. Colbert's legacy is in serious jeopardy!

(And honestly, the Padres team HR record is so embarrassingly low that none of those guys will even need to spend the rest of their career with the team to surpass it. Hell, Tatis is already halfway there in just 273 career games!)

Now reported that Machado set a February 16 deadline & the Padres offered another $105M/5 years. That would give him $255M over 10 years for not opting out, which seems a bit short of his likely fair market value, depending somewhat on what he does this season.

that's nota decline phase I'd be too worried about given athletic conditioning these days.

I dont understand the reasoning here. If all the players in MLB are conditioning themselves the same way there should still be a decline phase based on whatever inherent things come with ageing: eyesight, flexibility, injury time, etc. Is there some reason to think players are declining at less than the recent historical levels?

That would give him $255M over 10 years

That's essentially what they're paying X over those same calendar years/ages. It's a "fair" offer but also one that seems to be saying "we have one of you already."

I dont understand the reasoning here.

He's talking about ages 32-36. Teams have historically been quite comfortable signing players through age 36 and ages 32-33 are often very good seasons. This offseason they seemed to decide even that is old thinking and that, between deferment, reducing the CBT hit and current aging, that going through 39-40 isn't that big of a deal. I've got serious doubts about that but no I wouldn't be too worred about Machado 32-36 at 5/$150 at today's prices. The "problem" with #9 is that the Padres don't have him for 5/$150 but, in fairness, this seemed to be the "decline phase" that the early posts were glad the Padres would be missing.

re: 26, I think the point was that players like Machado are still pretty good from ages 31-35, so the Padres are losing real value if Machado moves on. The difficult call is what a team may now be willing to pay for the ages 36-40 seasons in order to secure those prior 5 years.

#20 - Machado's a gold glove 3B who will likely finish with well over 400 HR's. How many of those has there been in MLB history? Schmidt, Beltre, and....??? He (and his twin, Nolan Arenado) are near HOF locks, IMO.

Yeah, 3B has been a bit of an oddity from HOF a representation perspective, but we've been in a bit of a golden era for a while now. Jones and Rolen overlapped almost for the entirety of their careers, and Beltre is coming along shortly. Then active players Arenado and Machado are nearing hit by a bus status, and I think Jose Ramirez is also looking really good. Longoria I don't think will get in given his decline, but HOVG for sure, and Donaldson might also fit into that category, especially if he hadn't had such a late start. Bregman was off to a flying start, but 2020 and 2021 hurt him. If he can rebound strongly over the next five seasons, he still might make it; he's still young enough to turn it around, or even if he doesn't come all the way back, he could be one more for the HOVG category.

Walt and YC: yes I see what you're saying. I didnt realize he's something like a 6 WAR player currently. I would guess about 28 WAR over the next 5 years (actually I think you have to assign some risk that he doesnt play full time, so perhaps 23 WAR would be the over/under).

At least 10 years 300M but $350M would not be crazy.

Regarding a long term contract, it's also worth noting that Machado is one of the most durable players in MLB. Prorating the COVID season (when he played all 60 games), he's had at least 150 games played each of the past 8 seasons. He's as good a bet as any to stay healthy over the life of his next contract.

On the HoF, Rolen's induction, Helton's near-induction and Adruw's big jump would seem to suggest that the good all-arounder without the counting stats is in a pretty good spot, at least as long as weak ballots continue. It probably also speaks to the impact of WAR, at least in a "who else we gonna vote for?" way. Meanwhile the recent inductions of Ortiz, Rivera and the Wagner jump suggest the "old school" still hold plenty of influence. Maybe this was the Unspoken "compromise" -- we won't block your guys (unless they're roiders), you don't block our guys. Arenado and Machado seem to be moving towards lock status.

On MM's future, yes 28 WAR over the next 5 seems optimistic -- he's been at 5.3 per 650 over the last 5 years. But 20-24 WAR is certainly reasonable. Only the last 4 of those are part of the opt-out period through so for 32-36 we might be talking something more like 18-22 WAR which is still worth $150 M. And yes, I'd guess around 10/$300 at the high end (Turner got 11/$300) and probably closer to 10/$270 or 9/$260 or something. Basically the same $ and the same ending age but higher AAV than Turner and Bogaerts

#32 - I'm not sure Machado and Arenado are even really "SABR candidates" like Rolen was. They're each probably going to finish with 450-ish homers and over 2500 hits, all while winning multiple gold gloves at a defensive position. If they age well, they could reach 500 homers and/or 3000 hits. Their best historical comp (other than each other) is probably Adrian Beltre, who would be sailing in on the first ballot next year even if WAR never existed.

Players are durable until they are not. Rolen had a good track record until his two collisions and he was never the same. A lot of these contracts will look really bad soon. Look at Pujols deal Or Strausburg. There will be a lot of these in the next few years.

Oh, PLEASE sign with the Yankees, Manny. PLEASE. It's been too long since I player I love to hate played for a TEAM i love to hate.

We have some Correa money just burning a hole in our pockets!

Barring an early retirement, career ending injury, or PED (or other disqualifying character) revelations, he's getting in.

After the completely foreseeable injuries to the Red Sox starting middle infield dreck the Sox will turn to a fully rested and fired up Dustin Pedroia to help limp them through the season. May 21st rolls around and after back to back walks Pedroia is on 2nd with no one out. There's a hard hit ball to deep 1B and Cronenworth decides to try to get the (rather slow) lead runner. Pedroia starts to have flash backs to a certain Oriole-at-the-time coming in hard with cleats high...there's a close play at 3B...

We can all dream, right?

Oh, PLEASE sign with the Yankees, Manny. PLEASE. It's been too long since I player I love to hate played for a TEAM i love to hate.

Given their history, there would be a beautiful symmetry to Machado replacing Donaldson. I don't dislike Machado; I've actually come to appreciate just how great a player he is. Kind of like a more likeable version of Gary Sheffield. (How's that for a low bar?) Donaldson, on the other hand, I find completely detestable.

Apparently this was just a negotiating ploy...

Machado finalizing extension with Padres

Wow. Big Money! I don't think I've adapted to the changing financial landscape the last couple of years . . . every contract seems "too big" which probably means my expectations are misaligned with reality.