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Sunday, November 28, 2021

Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers agree to 7-year deal, sources say

Infielder Marcus Semien and the Texas Rangers are in agreement on a seven-year contract, sources familiar with the deal told ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Sunday.

After struggling in the shortened 2020 with the A’s, Semien bet on himself last offseason, accepting a one-year offer from the Blue Jays in an attempt to rebuild his value and re-enter free agency. He bet right. Semien moved to second base with Toronto and responded with one of the best power seasons from a second baseman in major league history, hitting .265/.334/.538 with 45 home runs, breaking Brian Dozier’s record for home runs by a second baseman.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 28, 2021 at 05:32 PM | 22 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: marcus semien, rangers

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   1. JRVJ Posted: November 28, 2021 at 05:44 PM (#6055026)
Good for Mr. Semien from a monetary standpoint, but not so good from a competitive standpoint (he's going to lose a lot of games in 2022).
   2. Hombre Brotani Posted: November 28, 2021 at 06:00 PM (#6055032)
More years than I expected for Semien, but I can see him remaining a defensive plus for at least the first three or four years if he stays at second base. Not worried about his bat; dude can hit.
   3. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 28, 2021 at 06:17 PM (#6055038)
Hmmm, I seem to remember Texas signing a veteran IF awhile back who had a really good season with another club after coming off contract. They paid a decent wage and number of years to that player and needless to say, that worked out well for them. And yes, I'm still bitter that my guys didn't sign him after that one incredibly fun year.

Here's hoping for them, lightning strikes twice.
I like Semien and I think he'll be productive for a while, the years are surprising, but the money seems like pretty good value for the club. The classic less money per for more years trade off.
   4. BDC Posted: November 28, 2021 at 07:12 PM (#6055046)
Semien is likely to be good sometimes in 2022 or '23, and I always liked him as an A, which gives me some reason to go out to the Dome. But it's odd - they wouldn't try to extend Joey Gallo, who just turned 28, because he didn't figure in their next success window ... but Semien does? I conclude they still don't know what the heck they are doing. Not to mention that he blocks at least one younger and potentially good player that they already have (Ibañez, Kiner-Falefa, or Jung).
   5. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 28, 2021 at 07:17 PM (#6055047)
I conclude they still don't know what the heck they are doing.
”Making a splash?”
   6. Hombre Brotani Posted: November 28, 2021 at 07:26 PM (#6055050)
But it's odd - they wouldn't try to extend Joey Gallo, who just turned 28, because he didn't figure in their next success window ... but Semien does?
I think they just didn't believe that a guy who, regardless of how many walks he drew, couldn't hit over .200 in his year 26-27 seasons wasn't an awesome bet for a long-term contract. That's a reasonable conclusion, one I agree with.
   7. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 28, 2021 at 07:46 PM (#6055057)
Semien deal is reportedly $175 mm, an AAV of $25 million.
Hope this doesn’t cause the Rangers to scrimp on the BDC Dome air conditioning budget.
   8. DFA Posted: November 28, 2021 at 08:02 PM (#6055059)
It seems like there may be some undesirable consequences in the long term...
   9. Darren Posted: November 28, 2021 at 09:02 PM (#6055063)
I don't follow the Rangers. What is the plan for Kiner-Falefa with all these incoming shortstops?
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 28, 2021 at 09:38 PM (#6055069)
More years than I expected for Semien, but I can see him remaining a defensive plus for at least the first three or four years if he stays at second base. Not worried about his bat; dude can hit.

He's hit in exactly two seasons of his career.
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 28, 2021 at 09:41 PM (#6055070)
”Making a splash?”


There is talk they are in on Trevor Story too.
   12. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 28, 2021 at 09:52 PM (#6055076)
ZiPS is projecting 17.6 WAR for Semien over the life of this deal. Seems like a pretty bad idea.
   13. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 28, 2021 at 10:27 PM (#6055082)
The Rangers are also reported to be signing Kole Calhoun ($5.2M/1 year) & Jon Gray ($56M/4 years).
   14. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 28, 2021 at 10:39 PM (#6055083)
He's hit in exactly two seasons of his career.

Those are also the only two 7 WAR seasons of his career.
   15. Darren Posted: November 29, 2021 at 12:34 AM (#6055101)
They are also 2 of the last 3 years.
   16. DCA Posted: November 29, 2021 at 01:55 AM (#6055105)
And 2 of the last 2 complete seasons.
   17. Walt Davis Posted: November 29, 2021 at 02:54 AM (#6055109)
And he was a 3-WAR player before that when he couldn't hit and he's been very durable. But yeah, seems a bit much. It's about $15 M more in NPV than 5/$150 would be and he doesn't seem a 5/$150 player ... unless he rocks up a couple more 7-WAR seasons of course. (I thought I'd already posted most of that, maybe it's in another thread.)
   18. BDC Posted: November 29, 2021 at 08:22 AM (#6055117)
I don't follow the Rangers. What is the plan for Kiner-Falefa with all these incoming shortstops?

I think they're in Scarlett O'Hara mode there. If they move IKF to third he blocks Josh Jung. If to second, he blocks Andy Ibañez and even if who cares, I don't think Kiner-Falefa has played much second base. Maybe back behind the plate, but one of IKF's few offensive strengths is his baserunning ability, and catching will grind that down. So ???

EDIT: I guess one can check these things. Kiner-Falefa played 132 games at 2B in the minors, just 20 in the majors and none since 2018. But he is an excellent athlete and learns fast, so maybe …
   19. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 29, 2021 at 11:09 AM (#6055140)
Those are also the only two 7 WAR seasons of his career.

And 2 of the last 2 complete seasons.

They are also 2 of the last 3 years.

All of which still doesn't make him a superstar type of player that you would expect to age gracefully. Have we forgotten that guys who peak late tend to fade quickly?
   20. GregD Posted: November 29, 2021 at 12:05 PM (#6055149)
Love Semien. Plays hard and generally smart and is a calming presence on the field and a nice guy to fans in our experience

But I would never sign him to a seven year deal that begins with his age 31 season. I honestly thought he’d get good money for four years and maybe bargain for a fifth.
   21. A triple short of the cycle Posted: November 29, 2021 at 05:06 PM (#6055209)
I concur with both of GregD's points.
   22. Walt Davis Posted: November 29, 2021 at 05:36 PM (#6055216)
Have we forgotten that guys who peak late tend to fade quickly?

That's not true. Late bloomers -- i.e. guys who weren't good enough for the majors or not good enough to start until catching fire in their late 20s -- tend to fade quickly. Semien was a 3-WAR player from 24-27. And as a solid-good defensive SS who tend to age pretty well due to athleticism. And 28-30 is well within the range of a standard peak.

I completely agree that Semien's performance has been sufficiently variable that we have no good idea what he's likely to do over the next few years (and signing almost anybody for 7 years through age 37 is questionable). But, at worst, the bat came out of nowhere but he's been a good player for quite a while. FWIW, Steamer projects him to 4.7 WAR next year. He will need a gentle decline from there to reach the 20-24 WAR this deal is paying for.

Expansion era, ages 27-30, 50%+ at 2B or SS, by WAA (to partially adjust for covid 2020):

Semien is 12th. WAR ages 31-37 ...

the good: Zobrist 25 WAR (the perfect late bloomer); Larkin 30 WAR; Biggio 29; Sandberg 23 (despite all the drama); Kinsler 24
the not bad: Tejada 17
the bad: Pedroia 10; John Valentin 6 (late bloomer); Knoblauch 1 (early bloomer, classic peak); Brian Roberts 5

Tejada is probably the single-best comp -- a reasonably similar career shape of a solid player with his best hitting seasons from 28-32, average from 33-35, still worth having on the roster at 36. 17 WAR is obviously not the desired return for $175 M, the deal is at least one year too long (in NPV terms) but presumably #### teams have to pay a bit of a premium for a premier FA.

Note Alomar didn't make the cut. I think he's an interesting example of how we perceive players. He debuted at age 20 with 4 WAR, had 6 WAR seasons at 24-25. So through age 25, 30 WAR! He had a shot of topping Morgan. But he was only good from ages 26-30, 17 WAR, "just" 8 WAA which put him 5 WAA behind Semien so not in my comp list. And of course we all know he collapsed -- which he did. But from ages 31-33, before the collapse, he put up 20 WAR. Signing Alomar to the equivalent of this contract would have worked just fine ... and the fans would be screaming and he'd be remembered as a famous FA bust despite delivering what he was paid for.

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