Good for Mr. Semien from a monetary standpoint, but not so good from a competitive standpoint (he's going to lose a lot of games in 2022).

More years than I expected for Semien, but I can see him remaining a defensive plus for at least the first three or four years if he stays at second base. Not worried about his bat; dude can hit.

Hmmm, I seem to remember Texas signing a veteran IF awhile back who had a really good season with another club after coming off contract. They paid a decent wage and number of years to that player and needless to say, that worked out well for them. And yes, I'm still bitter that my guys didn't sign him after that one incredibly fun year.

Here's hoping for them, lightning strikes twice.
I like Semien and I think he'll be productive for a while, the years are surprising, but the money seems like pretty good value for the club. The classic less money per for more years trade off.

Semien is likely to be good sometimes in 2022 or '23, and I always liked him as an A, which gives me some reason to go out to the Dome. But it's odd - they wouldn't try to extend Joey Gallo, who just turned 28, because he didn't figure in their next success window ... but Semien does? I conclude they still don't know what the heck they are doing. Not to mention that he blocks at least one younger and potentially good player that they already have (Ibañez, Kiner-Falefa, or Jung).

I conclude they still don't know what the heck they are doing.

”Making a splash?”

But it's odd - they wouldn't try to extend Joey Gallo, who just turned 28, because he didn't figure in their next success window ... but Semien does?

I think they just didn't believe that a guy who, regardless of how many walks he drew, couldn't hit over .200 in his year 26-27 seasons wasn't an awesome bet for a long-term contract. That's a reasonable conclusion, one I agree with.

Semien deal is reportedly $175 mm, an AAV of $25 million.

Hope this doesn’t cause the Rangers to scrimp on the BDC Dome air conditioning budget.

It seems like there may be some undesirable consequences in the long term...

I don't follow the Rangers. What is the plan for Kiner-Falefa with all these incoming shortstops?

More years than I expected for Semien, but I can see him remaining a defensive plus for at least the first three or four years if he stays at second base. Not worried about his bat; dude can hit.

He's hit in exactly two seasons of his career.

”Making a splash?”

There is talk they are in on Trevor Story too.

ZiPS is projecting 17.6 WAR for Semien over the life of this deal. Seems like a pretty bad idea.

The Rangers are also reported to be signing Kole Calhoun ($5.2M/1 year) & Jon Gray ($56M/4 years).

He's hit in exactly two seasons of his career.

Those are also the only two 7 WAR seasons of his career.

They are also 2 of the last 3 years.

And 2 of the last 2 complete seasons.

And he was a 3-WAR player before that when he couldn't hit and he's been very durable. But yeah, seems a bit much. It's about $15 M more in NPV than 5/$150 would be and he doesn't seem a 5/$150 player ... unless he rocks up a couple more 7-WAR seasons of course. (I thought I'd already posted most of that, maybe it's in another thread.)

I don't follow the Rangers. What is the plan for Kiner-Falefa with all these incoming shortstops?

I think they're in Scarlett O'Hara mode there. If they move IKF to third he blocks Josh Jung. If to second, he blocks Andy Ibañez and even if who cares, I don't think Kiner-Falefa has played much second base. Maybe back behind the plate, but one of IKF's few offensive strengths is his baserunning ability, and catching will grind that down. So ???

EDIT: I guess one can check these things. Kiner-Falefa played 132 games at 2B in the minors, just 20 in the majors and none since 2018. But he is an excellent athlete and learns fast, so maybe …

Those are also the only two 7 WAR seasons of his career.

And 2 of the last 2 complete seasons.

They are also 2 of the last 3 years.

All of which still doesn't make him a superstar type of player that you would expect to age gracefully. Have we forgotten that guys who peak late tend to fade quickly?

Love Semien. Plays hard and generally smart and is a calming presence on the field and a nice guy to fans in our experience

But I would never sign him to a seven year deal that begins with his age 31 season. I honestly thought he’d get good money for four years and maybe bargain for a fifth.

I concur with both of GregD's points.

Have we forgotten that guys who peak late tend to fade quickly?

That's not true. Late bloomers -- i.e. guys who weren't good enough for the majors or not good enough to start until catching fire in their late 20s -- tend to fade quickly. Semien was a 3-WAR player from 24-27. And as a solid-good defensive SS who tend to age pretty well due to athleticism. And 28-30 is well within the range of a standard peak.

I completely agree that Semien's performance has been sufficiently variable that we have no good idea what he's likely to do over the next few years (and signing almost anybody for 7 years through age 37 is questionable). But, at worst, the bat came out of nowhere but he's been a good player for quite a while. FWIW, Steamer projects him to 4.7 WAR next year. He will need a gentle decline from there to reach the 20-24 WAR this deal is paying for.

Expansion era, ages 27-30, 50%+ at 2B or SS, by WAA (to partially adjust for covid 2020):

Semien is 12th. WAR ages 31-37 ...

the good: Zobrist 25 WAR (the perfect late bloomer); Larkin 30 WAR; Biggio 29; Sandberg 23 (despite all the drama); Kinsler 24
the not bad: Tejada 17
the bad: Pedroia 10; John Valentin 6 (late bloomer); Knoblauch 1 (early bloomer, classic peak); Brian Roberts 5

Tejada is probably the single-best comp -- a reasonably similar career shape of a solid player with his best hitting seasons from 28-32, average from 33-35, still worth having on the roster at 36. 17 WAR is obviously not the desired return for $175 M, the deal is at least one year too long (in NPV terms) but presumably #### teams have to pay a bit of a premium for a premier FA.

Note Alomar didn't make the cut. I think he's an interesting example of how we perceive players. He debuted at age 20 with 4 WAR, had 6 WAR seasons at 24-25. So through age 25, 30 WAR! He had a shot of topping Morgan. But he was only good from ages 26-30, 17 WAR, "just" 8 WAA which put him 5 WAA behind Semien so not in my comp list. And of course we all know he collapsed -- which he did. But from ages 31-33, before the collapse, he put up 20 WAR. Signing Alomar to the equivalent of this contract would have worked just fine ... and the fans would be screaming and he'd be remembered as a famous FA bust despite delivering what he was paid for.