I don’t understand why everyone loves Dipoto. Does he have a history of winning I don’t know about ?

Well he does a lot of trades, and trades are fun, and he has built a top farm system, but I don't know that everyone does love Jerry Dipoto?

Agree with #2. With all those trades, at least he appears to be trying to do something. Not always successful but at least he's trying...right?

I love baseball, and I love sabermetrics...and I acknowledge that much of what is perceived as skill in baseball is actually largely luck. With good luck this year, DiPoto gets an extension. With average luck this year, DiPoto does not get an extension this year. In fact, he might get fired. With bad luck, DiPoto definitely gets fired at the end of the season.

Toronto is 74-62, but every time I see them on TV, I swear they are one of the best teams in baseball. They have a lot of talent, including some elite talent, and they play in a tough division, and they are still right there for the second wild card. Their expected W/L, based on their RS/RA? 81-55. They *are* one of the best teams in baseball.

Seattle is 75-63, basically tied with Toronto. Their expected W/L, given that they have actually been outscored 639 to 584? 63-75.

That's a 19-game difference in the Pythagorean W/L expectation between an unlucky Toronto and a very, very lucky Seattle.

Seattle:
29-16 in one-run games
9-25, outscored 128-253, in blowout games (5+ run margin of victory)

Toronto:
13-15 in one-run games
25-12, outscoring their opponents 284-164, in blowout games

FWIW, they are chasing Boston and the Yankees for the two WC spots. Yankees are 78-59, Boston is 79-61, a half-game behind NY:

NYY:
23-16 in one-run games
15-13 in blowouts
78-59, expected W/L is 73-64

BOS:
24-15 in one-run games
20-18 in blowouts
79-61, expected W/L is 75-65

Toronto is better than these other teams, and Seattle is much, much worse than these other teams - but because of the one-run games, DiPoto gets the extension, instead of getting let go.

#4 is true, but overstated.

Teams that don’t have good offenses and teams that have exceptional bullpens tend to outperform their Pythagorean projections.

A team like the M’s essentially can’t score enough to win blowouts, but everyone can give up enough runs occasionally to lose a blowout.

Dipoto hasn’t had bullpen magic every year, but he has been willing to tinker enough to get decent bullpen production more often than not. The specific names are lucky ( Seawald, etc.)

The bigger problem for Jerry et al is that the prospects look amazing until they reach the majors. Then… we’ll…