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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Monday, September 06, 2021Mariners give GM Jerry Dipoto, manager Scott Servais multiyear contract extensions
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: September 06, 2021 at 12:34 PM | 5 comment(s)
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1. The Duke Posted: September 06, 2021 at 05:59 PM (#6038492)Toronto is 74-62, but every time I see them on TV, I swear they are one of the best teams in baseball. They have a lot of talent, including some elite talent, and they play in a tough division, and they are still right there for the second wild card. Their expected W/L, based on their RS/RA? 81-55. They *are* one of the best teams in baseball.
Seattle is 75-63, basically tied with Toronto. Their expected W/L, given that they have actually been outscored 639 to 584? 63-75.
That's a 19-game difference in the Pythagorean W/L expectation between an unlucky Toronto and a very, very lucky Seattle.
Seattle:
29-16 in one-run games
9-25, outscored 128-253, in blowout games (5+ run margin of victory)
Toronto:
13-15 in one-run games
25-12, outscoring their opponents 284-164, in blowout games
FWIW, they are chasing Boston and the Yankees for the two WC spots. Yankees are 78-59, Boston is 79-61, a half-game behind NY:
NYY:
23-16 in one-run games
15-13 in blowouts
78-59, expected W/L is 73-64
BOS:
24-15 in one-run games
20-18 in blowouts
79-61, expected W/L is 75-65
Toronto is better than these other teams, and Seattle is much, much worse than these other teams - but because of the one-run games, DiPoto gets the extension, instead of getting let go.
Teams that don’t have good offenses and teams that have exceptional bullpens tend to outperform their Pythagorean projections.
A team like the M’s essentially can’t score enough to win blowouts, but everyone can give up enough runs occasionally to lose a blowout.
Dipoto hasn’t had bullpen magic every year, but he has been willing to tinker enough to get decent bullpen production more often than not. The specific names are lucky ( Seawald, etc.)
The bigger problem for Jerry et al is that the prospects look amazing until they reach the majors. Then… we’ll…
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