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Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Marlins’ Season “Paused” As MLB Plots Scheduling Modifications

The Marlins’ 2020 campaign has been “paused,” according to Craig Mish of Sports Grid (Twitter link). That development is part of an apparent effort on the part of Major League Baseball to tweak its schedule to account for the breakout of COVID-19 cases within the Miami organization.

With the Phillies also sidelined, at least for the short term, the league is left with two teams out of action. It’s considering a plan to match up those two organizations’ previously scheduled opponents — the Yankees and Orioles — in order to keep logging as many games as possible, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).

While the Philadelphia organization doesn’t have any new positive tests to worry about, it recently took the field against the Marlins. The Phils will also be held back for at least some time as a result, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Twitter links).

The idea, it seems, would be to get the Marlins and Phillies caught up on total contests later in the season. If they don’t quite make it to 60 total games, postseason qualification could still be determined by winning percentage. It isn’t clear exactly what standards the league will apply to determine when to resume action for these teams.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 28, 2020 at 02:14 PM | 78 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: coronavirus, marlins

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   1. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: July 28, 2020 at 02:30 PM (#5966420)
I could be wrong, but it seems to me that MLB does not have a pre-determined plan in place for what happens if one team, two teams, three teams, etc., need to deal with an outbreak simultaneously. How is this possible? For months, major-league sports have had nothing to do but plan for scenarios. One of the most likely scenarios was a team suffering through a breakout, right? But there is not a plan for this already in place?

It does seem like MLB spent much of its time figuring out how to make the dollars work for a 2020 pandemic season.

All that said, I think having the two impacted teams' opponents playing each other is probably the best way to handle a quickly-spiraling-out-of-control situation.
   2. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 28, 2020 at 02:35 PM (#5966421)
Fish out of water

I could be wrong, but it seems to me that MLB does not have a pre-determined plan in place for what happens if one team, two teams, three teams, etc., need to deal with an outbreak simultaneously. How is this possible?


America 2020 and you're asking this?
   3. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 28, 2020 at 02:40 PM (#5966424)
Fanless games allows for quickly rescheduling. MLB should have been planning for this kind of thing for the last two months. New York and Baltimore play instead. Dynamic scheduling.
   4. giannis Posted: July 28, 2020 at 03:04 PM (#5966429)
1. MIA 2-1, .667
2. WSH 32-18, .640
3. ATL 28-22, .560
4. PHI 27-26, .509
5. NYM 22-28, .440

World Series, baby!
   5. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 28, 2020 at 03:06 PM (#5966430)
I think it’s more likely that MLB just doesn’t want to publicly discuss worst case scenarios before it has to. They should know more in a day or two.
   6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 28, 2020 at 03:13 PM (#5966431)
Passan: The Yankees and Orioles will play each other Wed and Thurs.
   7. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 28, 2020 at 03:15 PM (#5966433)

It seems like they planned for what to do if a few players tested positive, but not for what to do if most of the roster tests positive.

Every team has an alternative site with ~30 players, I realize that calling up an entire team from those groups wasn't what they had in mind, and may not be full MLB-quality baseball, but if this happens to another team I think MLB may have to start going to that well.
   8. The Duke Posted: July 28, 2020 at 03:24 PM (#5966435)
I think they need to wait long enough to see how many more marlins test positive. If they have a few more days with no material positives, I would think they bring up the b team and play on.

There seem to be two issues they need to resolve going forward

1. They need an alternative site to play for each team when there is an outbreak so they can exit a potentially infected site. That should be easy

2. They need to have a third way to roster a team which would be an emergency draft from other teams 30 man taxi squads. That is, if the marlins own 30 man squad can’t ensure a full team, the marlins should be to temporarily draft players from other taxis squads until such time their players are back

Desperate times ......


   9. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 28, 2020 at 03:24 PM (#5966436)
It seems like they planned for what to do if a few players tested positive, but not for what to do if most of the roster tests positive.


I'll let that observation sit alone and contemplate it.


   10. Zonk paid more than $750 in taxes last paycheck Posted: July 28, 2020 at 03:44 PM (#5966443)
Honestly, this whole thing was never going to work...

I'm sure the payroll math gets hard, but if MLB wanted to actually do some kind of showcase and yada yada?

They really should have just found a way to say #### it, we're going to let a few select lucky fans do a roto draft or something.... play a week of round robin tournaments... rinse, repeat or something like that. Or hell, let the players pick teams like gym class or something.... I suppose you still run into problems shuttling players around, but the idea this wasn't inevitably all going to fall apart a team or three basically get sidelined?
   11. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 28, 2020 at 03:44 PM (#5966444)
Marlins shut down for the next seven days, at least. If a western team has a similar outbreak, that may be the season.
   12. . Posted: July 28, 2020 at 03:46 PM (#5966445)
It's over. It's always been over.
   13. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 28, 2020 at 03:52 PM (#5966446)
Marlins shut down for the next seven days, at least.


New MLB schedule: Teams will play whoever is available and close by. The 16 teams that get closest to 60 games advance to the playoffs if they are healthy at the time.
   14. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 28, 2020 at 03:54 PM (#5966448)
The Marlins roster will be constructed by a FAN VOTE of available free agents. Vote now for the MARLINS ROSTER FAN VOTE PRESENTED BY CAMPING WORLD!
   15. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: July 28, 2020 at 04:02 PM (#5966451)
And while you’re at it bet on the players you think are most likely to win the FAN VOTE PRESENTED BY CAMPING WORLD by logging on at DAFABET.COM and betting which players win that vote!
   16. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 28, 2020 at 04:08 PM (#5966453)
Marly Rivera, ESPN Writer

MLB announces that in over 6,400 tests conducted since Friday, July 24th, there have been no new positives of on-field personnel from any of the other 29 teams (except the Marlins.)
The question that needs to be answered is whether some Marlins engaged in risky behavior that disregarded the health & safety recommendations, or were they just unlucky to get hit despite everyone being vigilant?
   17. . Posted: July 28, 2020 at 04:23 PM (#5966457)
The question that needs to be answered is whether some Marlins engaged in risky behavior that disregarded the health & safety recommendations, or were they just unlucky to get hit despite everyone being vigilant?


That "question" is irrelevant. The answer to it is irrelevant. (*) MLB's plan was and is a public health menace. It's like the Justice Department forgetting all about working from home and deciding across the country to all get back together in the office and then have a 60-game round robin softball tournament over the next 12 weeks, where the offices traveled three times a week to eight other cities in six geographic pods to play the games. It's an absurd proposition on every level.

As I wrote in the other thread, if Canada wasn't willing to have the 29 other workplaces travel to Toronto because of reasonable public health considerations, that should have been the beginning and end of the idea. And that beginning and end should have been cemented when the Pennsylvania health authorities weren't willing to let the Blue Jays work in Pittsburgh.

The only pass MLB gets from the fair-minded is the fact that they conceived the idea when the facts on the ground were better and projections could be reasonably more optimistic. Once the facts on the ground changed, that should have ended the idea. Now they're endangering the public health.

(*) MLB and the Marlins have neither the authority nor ability to police or govern the off-work behavior of their employees with respect to the virus. The answer to how the first Marlins got it takes you to no different place in the decision tree.

   18. The Duke Posted: July 28, 2020 at 05:24 PM (#5966472)
17. You must be so happy. The game you love might be shelved for a full year. Congrats on your win.
   19. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 28, 2020 at 05:25 PM (#5966473)
That "question" is irrelevant. The answer to it is irrelevant.
It’s pretty basic that if you only have an outbreak in one area, with others similarly situated in other areas not being affected, you examine that area to see what lessons can be learned. #Science.
   20. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: July 28, 2020 at 05:34 PM (#5966476)
...aaaaand it's all coming apart now, folks. Let's hope the NHL and the NBA can survive, at least.
   21. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 28, 2020 at 05:49 PM (#5966483)
17. You must be so happy. The game you love might be shelved for a full year. Congrats on your win.

This is SO, SO, SO, SO, SO stupid. There's also a bunch of people online that keep saying things like this to reporters or anyone who ever questions the almighty leagues or points out potential flaws in their plans. I can't imagine the inability to understand that pointing out MLB is dumb is not the same thing as rooting against baseball happening.

I really, really want this MLB season and this NFL season to happen, and for as many games as possible to be played. Same thing for the NBA and the NHL*. It's just much more likely that MLB and the NFL are gonna end up cancelling their seasons, or maybe just delaying them. The bubble plans are just significantly smarter and much more likely to succeed. That doesn't mean I win if the seasons fails or that I'm rooting for it to happen.

*Probably not college football or basketball, because really, #### the NCAA.
   22. Walt Davis Posted: July 28, 2020 at 05:49 PM (#5966484)
And while you’re at it bet on the players you think are most likely to win<

Speaking of which, TAB (an aussie sports betting outfit) are one of the advertisers on mlb.tv down here, promoting bets on baseball.
   23. . Posted: July 28, 2020 at 05:53 PM (#5966486)
It’s pretty basic that if you only have an outbreak in one area, with others similarly situated in other areas not being affected, you examine that area to see what lessons can be learned.


But it spread from the original source to and through the workplace, so I'm not sure what "lesson" you're hoping to learn. We've all known the lesson since the middle of March: If workers aren't in a bubble and come into an in-person workplace, it presents the significant risk that the workplace will become a COVID cluster. That's kind of why pretty much every American worker who can work from home is ... you know ... working from home.

If the original source *was* the workplace, well that's just extra testament to the risk the activity poses.
   24. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: July 28, 2020 at 07:11 PM (#5966500)
Probably not college football or basketball, because really, #### the NCAA.

I hear ya...but I love college sports so much (baseball and hockey, too!) that I'm willing to put up with the godawful NCAA just to see them. (I feel the same way about the Olympics/IOC and the World Cup/FIFA...)
   25. Howie Menckel Posted: July 28, 2020 at 08:15 PM (#5966512)
Mark J. Burns
@markjburns88

ZERO: number of positive COVID-19 cases across the Major League Soccer group staying at the host hotel in Orlando from July 26-27. Tested 654 people during that time period.

MLS has released NINE CONSECUTIVE reports of 0 positive cases from host hotel. That's nearly 3 weeks.
7:16 PM · Jul 28, 2020
   26. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: July 28, 2020 at 08:43 PM (#5966515)
I can't imagine the inability to understand that pointing out MLB is dumb is not the same thing as rooting against baseball happening.


This. I love baseball. The Red Sox are a tire fire, they’ll be lucky to win 15 games but I just returned from coaching a little league game and I’m now sitting on my porch watching the Sox game. I love baseball more than anything else.

But it is lunacy to be playing either the youth baseball or the Major League Baseball. It is just asinine. Do I WANT baseball? Of course. But it is genuinely dangerous to be playing right now. Now matter how much we shut our eyes and pretend there isn’t a serious health problem there is. 150,000 people are dead and we have made virtually no progress at arresting the spread.
   27. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 28, 2020 at 09:19 PM (#5966519)
The Red Sox are a tire fire


Apparently you need good, healthy pitchers to be effective...who knew?

As for the rest of your post, I concur. With millions sick, hundreds of thousands dead and unemployment at 30's recession levels; the whole enterprise seems a bit frivolous.
   28. Hank Gillette Posted: July 28, 2020 at 10:07 PM (#5966536)
It's just much more likely that MLB and the NFL are gonna end up cancelling their seasons, or maybe just delaying them. The bubble plans are just significantly smarter and much more likely to succeed.


A hard bubble is really the only way that it could work, and I’m not sure that it would be foolproof, even if all the players and support staff were willing to do that, which we know they are not.

I have no idea how anyone thinks they can play football. Social distancing is impossible. Are they going to have everyone wear masks?
   29. The Duke Posted: July 28, 2020 at 10:09 PM (#5966537)
26. Ok it’s not really “dangerous” to baseball players. People might get it and be out for a few days. Is it possible someone dies? Yes. Likely? No. Can someone end up missing a season? Yes, it’s already happened I believe with the Red Sox. Most of the deaths are not in the baseball age group. Coaches are assuming some risk if they are older.

We have a ton of infections now in our younger population because of shutdown fatigue, re-openings, protests, etc but those people aren’t dying at the same rates because they are younger - death rates are plummeting. given the protections in place for MLB(see study released today on testing which was quite good), the safest place in the world if you are a professional baseball player is in these bubbles they are creating. I wish we all had such care around us.

You can’t shut down life forever, you just need to mitigate risks the best you can and soldier on.
   30. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 28, 2020 at 10:15 PM (#5966541)
Found this in a Fangraphs article:

Yesterday, after news of the Marlins’ COVID-19 outbreak broke, a reporter asked Brandon Nimmo whether he would now consider wearing a mask on the field, or if he would be more conscientious about physical distancing with his teammates. “No, it doesn’t make me more cautious,” he responded. “I still want to go out there and have fun, try and make this as normal as possible.” He elaborated: “It’s outside of our control, and that’s something you learn in baseball. You learn to control what you can control and let the rest take care of itself.”
So that’s the mentality we’re dealing with here.
   31. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: July 28, 2020 at 10:17 PM (#5966542)
A. Eduardo Rodriguez is dealing with a heart problem, that’s not a small thing.

B. Many of the coaches/managers/staff are older folks.

C. The players have families and friends.

D. There are many issues beyond what EdRod is dealing with among healthy people.

E. We don’t need to shut down life forever, but a few months isn’t (or shouldn’t be) the end of the world.

But I’m one of those dumb people who prefers fewer people die than more.
   32. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 28, 2020 at 10:18 PM (#5966543)
A hard bubble is really the only way that it could work, and I’m not sure that it would be foolproof, even if all the players and support staff were willing to do that, which we know they are not.

it really is not.

bubbles are not a solution; they are just a desperate grasp for normalcy and they happen to be working because the players involved bought into it (possible coincidence: the NBA is run by democrats and the NHL is run by canadians).

the only real solution for sports in this country is if the country as a whole stops covid from spreading. we know that it's possible (every other ####### country has done a better job than we have) and we know how to do it (and we have since before the first case reached america), but we need political leadership that can A: read a ####### chart and B: shut the #### up and let the experts handle this. until we have that kind of political leadership in office, we're ######.


i think the NFL has a chance to get through this successfully.
i think college football is 300% ######.
   33. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 28, 2020 at 10:19 PM (#5966544)
But I’m one of those dumb people who prefers fewer people die than more.
pinko commie leftist.
   34. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: July 28, 2020 at 10:20 PM (#5966545)
You can’t shut down life forever, you just need to mitigate risks the best you can and soldier on.
Or, you can enforce the wearing of masks while also putting together a rigorous test-trace-track program.

You know, like the other first-world nations America aspires to be.
   35. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 28, 2020 at 10:21 PM (#5966546)
You know, like the other first-world nations America aspires to be.
swweden?
   36. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: July 28, 2020 at 10:25 PM (#5966548)
Well, not THEM.
   37. tshipman Posted: July 28, 2020 at 10:33 PM (#5966549)
Other people may die. It's a small price to pay for The Duke's entertainment.
   38. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: July 28, 2020 at 10:40 PM (#5966551)
I'm watching Dodgers-Astros and it seems pointless, as we're getting a wholesale stoppage, and sooner than later.
   39. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 28, 2020 at 10:40 PM (#5966552)
“No, it doesn’t make me more cautious,” he responded. “I still want to go out there and have fun, try and make this as normal as possible.” He elaborated: “It’s outside of our control, and that’s something you learn in baseball. You learn to control what you can control and let the rest take care of itself.”


Perhaps he's right. Just forget about the MLB testing protocol and let 'er rip. Attendance isn't mandatory.
   40. Jay Z Posted: July 28, 2020 at 10:54 PM (#5966554)
I am more of a moderate on this issue. It is always going to be a balance between shutdown, economy, and people's sanity.

When the shutdown came in my state there were counties with zero cases. Did the shutdown save lives? Sure it did. Even at zero cases, I'm sure it kept them from happening. But the shutdown was lifted, and now those places have cases. So you shutdown again... then lift, then shutdown again... etc etc etc.

Buying time has definite advantages with Covid-19. But you are buying it. There's a cost to what you are doing. This is not Spanish Flu with spikes that came in two month increments.

I can't change what the country is doing as a whole. I have kids here, I'm pretty much stuck.

My mom is 95. Haven't seen her since February. We were talking on the phone a lot. Then she fell, had to go to the hospital and nursing home. Which was on lockdown. Now she's moved to assisted living, where she is also quarantined. Hope to do an outside visit when she gets out of that, if the place allows it.

But I'm in a group of divorced single parents, and none of us feel that we have the answers, that we really know what "right" is any more. Maybe some here are still secure in those beliefs.
   41. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 28, 2020 at 10:58 PM (#5966555)
Sorry to hear about your mom, Jay.
   42. The Duke Posted: July 28, 2020 at 11:14 PM (#5966559)
Let’s look at the other first world countries. Their economies are in much worse shape than ours. The moment they re--opened the crisis has grown just as it did for us. But they are starting from a better point infection-wise. They just waited longer to re-open. The U.K. is about to ban travel within Europe. Scotland already effectively has. France and Germany infection rates growing exponentially. Spain already past the point of no return in Catalonia. Australia’s govt just admitted the rate of growth has now exceeded their ability to do contact and trace. HK and Japan have had a surge. In some of these places they were almost at zero new infections.

We basically traded off a better economy for worse infections. Everyone else but Sweden and the U.K. tried to eradicate it. No one has succeeded.

Our only hope is a vaccine or some level of immunity. In the meantime, I think life should go on. Baseball, hockey, football are wonderful distractions - certainly better than burning down Starbucks in Portland.

I find it odd that people are so focused on the fact they there might be a death. There’s always that risk. Teams have died in plane crashes. Daryl kile had a bad ticker. Oscar Taveras a victim of drunk driving. Etc etc. there are no guarantees. I hope the Marlins issue sobers everyone up to being good citizens to their fellow players. And I hope we have a wacky 60 game season with mike trout getting to a World Series. Brandon nimmo has it about right. Control what you can control and try to have fun.

   43. tshipman Posted: July 28, 2020 at 11:24 PM (#5966560)
I find it odd that people are so focused on the fact they there might be a death.


No, I'm fine if you die.
   44. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: July 28, 2020 at 11:33 PM (#5966562)
We basically traded off a better economy for worse infections.


If we did nothing, we would have a far worse economy, because we would have a far worst infection rate.
   45. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 28, 2020 at 11:40 PM (#5966563)
if i've learned anything from my high school economics classes, it's that a sick workforce is a healthy workforce.

   46. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: July 28, 2020 at 11:47 PM (#5966564)
There is mass agreement among economists, regardless of political bent, that you should shut everything down to minimize the pandemic if you want better outcomes. The short run cost (and reduced uncertainty) is way smaller than that from recurrent partial shutdowns, Frequent spikes, and massive health costs/reduced future ability to work.
   47. The Duke Posted: July 29, 2020 at 12:12 AM (#5966567)
Economists and epidemiologists don’t have to run for office or answer to constituents. If you are Fauci, the only answer is complete shutdown to eradicate the disease. That’s their job - to tell you how to make the disease go away. If you are a hammer, everything is a nail, so to speak.

In the real world, people want to take their kids to the beach, go out to eat, have a job as opposed to being unemployed, etc etc. the team in Sweden is the only free country that has gotten it close to right. Put in place some level of controls that can be sustained for years but not so many as to create riots in the streets which is what we are now experiencing.
   48. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 29, 2020 at 12:31 AM (#5966569)
There is mass agreement among economists, regardless of political bent, that you should shut everything down to minimize the pandemic if you want better outcomes. The short run cost (and reduced uncertainty) is way smaller than that from recurrent partial shutdowns, Frequent spikes, and massive health costs/reduced future ability to work.


Cripes, wouldja give it a rest with the logic and evidence already and stick to what matters.
   49. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 29, 2020 at 12:35 AM (#5966571)
In the real world, people want to take their kids to the beach, go out to eat, have a job as opposed to being unemployed, etc etc. the team in Sweden is the only free country that has gotten it close to right. Put in place some level of controls that can be sustained for years but not so many as to create riots in the streets which is what we are now experiencing.
that's not the real world; that's an ill-conceived fantasy.

as long as covid is a given, sacrifices must be made; there's no way around that. where we have a choice is in what we're willing to sacrifice. you appear to be less tolerant of sacrificing beach exposure than you are of sacrificing people. you can go #### the #### off.
   50. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 29, 2020 at 12:38 AM (#5966573)
none of us feel that we have the answers, that we really know what "right" is any more. Maybe some here are still secure in those beliefs.

does smoking cause cancer?
does hilary clinton participate in a sex trafficking operation out of the basement of a pizza hut?
have you ever stolen your roomates' burrito?
   51. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 29, 2020 at 12:44 AM (#5966574)
Norway and its 1/12 death rate v. Sweden are punters, sure/
   52. Adam M Posted: July 29, 2020 at 12:51 AM (#5966576)
Let’s look at the other first world countries. Their economies are in much worse shape than ours.


No, they are not. Germany's unemployment rate is 6.6%. Denmark's is 5.6%. Australia's is 7.9%. Japan's is 2.9%. Ours is 14.4%, and it doesn't account for the recent surge in infections that is shutting some stuff back down.
   53. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 29, 2020 at 12:56 AM (#5966577)
Norway was at 5.2 in June.
   54. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 29, 2020 at 01:03 AM (#5966579)
Sweden's unemployment rate is 9.8%, for comparison.
   55. Walt Davis Posted: July 29, 2020 at 01:24 AM (#5966580)
Sweden's economy is no better than the other Scandi countries but of course Sweden has many more deaths. They also have no substantial "immunity" (that we still don't really know exists or for how long). There is no way in which their approach has worked.

Mortality rates are lower among the young ... but, if anything, infection rates are skyrocketing among the young. You might have, say, 1/10th the conditional mortality risk but that's substantially less comfort if you have 1.5 times the infection risk.

We also seem to be finding out more every day that this thing carries longer-term effects as well. I haven't seen any estimate yet of rates but there are many reports about continued issues with breathlessness, fatigue and lung issues. These are sometimes now months after the virus "cleared." And this includes in people under 50 without known co-morbidity.

By the way, Australia's unemployment rate is severely under-reported. One of our subsidy programs was designed specifically to keep people "employed" although they weren't working and of course a ton of people have "left the labor force" because there are not jobs to look for. The "effective unemployment rate" in Australia is estimated to be 13.3%. Of course that payroll subsidy program is similar to that of many other countries (including the US PPP I believe) and every country will also be seeing large numbers leaving the labor force (which means you don't count in official unemployment) so the effective unemployment rates of most other countries including the US are probably also much higher than the official rates.
   56. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 29, 2020 at 01:25 AM (#5966581)
The U.K. is about to ban travel within Europe. Scotland already effectively has. France and Germany infection rates growing exponentially. Spain already past the point of no return in Catalonia.


These seem to be mostly completely untrue. The U.K. has added the need for a 14 day isolation period if you return from Spain, with no apparent plan to make this a ban. Scotland the same, you can still travel to almost anywhere in Europe. France and Germany are seeing increased cases, R>1, but Germany’s gone from about 200 a day to about 600. There’s time to turn that around - and almost everything is open here, so there’s scope to scale back a bit without lockdown in full. Catalonia definitely has problems, that’s about the only part of the extract above that seems factual.

From where are you getting your info for this extract?
   57. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 29, 2020 at 01:39 AM (#5966582)
Looking at the daily and 7-d average numbers for Germany, it appears still rather flat, slight rise that I have to wonder if it's caused by tourism in and out. UK still has more daily cases in raw numbers, let alone per capita, and they're concentrated in England.

FWIW, UK's 7-day average is also rising
   58. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 29, 2020 at 02:01 AM (#5966583)
Also worth noting (1) that UK's COVID response makes Sweden look successful, and(2) Sturgeon has floated closing the border with England to keep resurgence out of Scotland.
   59. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 29, 2020 at 03:13 AM (#5966586)
I should practice what I preach and provide sources for what I'm saying above:

Scot.gov travel advisory lists around 50 countries today from which Scots can return without a 14-day self-isolation window, including Australia, Japan, Italy, Netherlands, and Belgium (the last three having been hard-hit by Covid-19 initially, so particularly relevant here). Scots can travel from and to other countries as well, but the 14-day isolation period is obviously an obstacle. But almost all of Europe is on the 'no restrictions' list; it's just a gamble that things don't change after you jet off.

Germany's Covid-19 cases do indeed show a small increase over the recent past. The 7-day rolling average is up to 580, and it was 266 in mid-June. France has a similar increase in the 7-day to 923 from 434 in mid-June. Those merit watching, but a doubling in 6 weeks is not 'exponential' in the context of Covid-19 as far as I'm aware.

This reminds me of the refugee crisis a few years ago - my wife's American family got extremely concerned for her safety and told her all about the war zones across Sweden and no-go areas that proliferated around London that they'd seen on the news. I have to tell you: Europe's got plenty of real problems without the US coming up with new, sexier ones for us.

But again, I think the thought process is described by many as 'There's nothing we can do, so we should try to get on with life as normal' instead of the more accurate 'We should try to get on with life as normal, so there must be nothing we can do'.
   60. manchestermets Posted: July 29, 2020 at 08:34 AM (#5966600)
UK still has more daily cases in raw numbers, let alone per capita, and they're concentrated in England.


Who'd have thought that putting a pound shop Trump in charge would have negative consequences?

Sturgeon has floated closing the border with England to keep resurgence out of Scotland.


It's likely though that this is just talk. There's no practical way to close the border, and probably no legal power to do so.
   61. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 29, 2020 at 09:38 AM (#5966616)
It's likely though that this is just talk. There's no practical way to close the border, and probably no legal power to do so.
their words are backed by nuclear weapons.
   62. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 29, 2020 at 10:23 AM (#5966620)
Miami Marlins players reportedly went out in Atlanta before team's COVID-19 outbreak


During an appearance in the 5:00-5:15 block on 93.7 The Fan in Pittsburgh, Nightengale reported that "at least" one Marlins player, possibly more, left the team hotel and went out while in Atlanta, days before the season began.

Here's the report, verbatim, from Nightengale:

I think it's a wake-up call for all the other teams, saying, 'You'd better not go out at night.' Because if you bring it in, you've got a chance to knock off the season by yourself.

[...]

Well, I think a couple guys went out in Atlanta. That's what happened. I don't think it was any kind of fluke, from the bus driver or a pilot, any of that. I believe some guys got careless, at least one guy did for sure, he went out, and came back positive and spread it around.

Major League Baseball and the Marlins have yet to publicly discuss the cause of the team's outbreak.

   63. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 29, 2020 at 10:51 AM (#5966625)
Well, I think a couple guys went out in Atlanta. That's what happened. I don't think it was any kind of fluke, from the bus driver or a pilot, any of that. I believe some guys got careless, at least one guy did for sure, he went out, and came back positive and spread it around.

this guy can go #### himself, too.

look, i get the instinct to pile on someone who clearly did something wrong, but that's not the only way covid spreads. even if the guy who broke the protocol turns out to be the source of the infections (which is not at all clear), it's entirely possible that him going out was just incidental. how do you know he didn't catch it from a girlfriend who went to the dentist?
   64. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: July 29, 2020 at 11:25 AM (#5966633)
the team in Sweden is the only free country that has gotten it close to right

Health wise: The Swedish plan was highly stupid, stupid on its face*, and I've seen reports that some involved regret it.
Economy wise: Sweden is not outperforming their peers.

I'll be blunt. Combatting this virus is HARD and the US was never well positioned to do that. But, the math on what to do is pretty easy and we keep ####### it up.



* even if there were no morbidity concerns, just mortality, you can't reach herd immunity by getting lower risk people sick first because people cluster non-homogeneously - said immunity wouldn't be achieved amongst the old anyway. And, for me, the morbidity concerns override the mortality ones, which may be a minority opinion given the staggering number of deaths.
   65. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 29, 2020 at 11:52 AM (#5966641)
Right, Germany was under 300 for about a week, bounced up, came back down, slow rise, but today posted 200 new infections, which is low for a weekday over the past couple weeks (the past weekend was 372/409). (I'm using Worldometer numbers.) France is a bit more concerning, though I think every US state would be happy to have their per-capita number of reported infections.
   66. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 29, 2020 at 03:24 PM (#5966698)
29 teams haven’t had a positive test since July 24, while 1 team, the Marlins, has been hard hit, with ~ half the 30-man roster reported to have tested positive. It certainly seems appropriate to focus on what that one team did before jumping to the conclusion that it is inevitable that other teams will eventually suffer a similar fate. MLB may never know for sure, and they probably won’t release all their findings, but it may be the Marlins are the outlier, and their problem will lead to stronger adherence to the health & safety protocol for the remainder of the season.
   67. Walt Davis Posted: July 29, 2020 at 05:44 PM (#5966737)
To give folks a sense of proportionality:

We are currently very concerned in NSW because we are now getting about 15 (local) cases per day. Now we test 15-25,000 per day so that is still a positive test rate below 1 per 1,000. We are concerned. (3-4 clusters identified, so far seems confined to those)

Queensland, which had no local case for weeks, is concerned enough that they've closed to border to people from Sydney. They've recently had a couple and have closed some schools and restricted aged care homes in the SE.

Victoria (Melbourne mainly) is in trouble. They're closing in on a regular 500 cases per day, a positive testing rate around 2-3%, presumably higher in Melbourne. There's a major issue in their aged care. The spike in Vic has also been accompanied by deaths -- about 30 so far which sounds low but is a 30% increase in the Oz death total in the past 2-3 weeks (and a big increase for Vic). Everybody is freaked about Melbourne and all of its borders are closed or at least have quarantine orders in place.

Masks are "mandatory" in Melbourne, recommeneded for the rest of Vic, not recommended anywhere else in Australia to my knowledge. I don't wear one, nor does anyone else where I live, but I have some on order just in case. (Everybody is sold out of reusable masks, I couldn't find any with less than a 2-week wait.)

For comparison purposes, Australia and Texas are a fairly close match. Sydney and Melbourne aren't quite as populous as Dallas and Houston but you get the idea.

The Sydney outbreaks each seem to be some sort of super-spreader event. One was at a big restaurant/pub where (leading theory) somebody from Melbourne was travelling through, before the border was closed. A second was one woman who had 3 funerals in one day. The third was an apparently very popular Thai restaurant in N Sydney suburbs. That one may have spread to inner Sydney where there's another branch of that restaurant and there are a few cases there. OF course with track and trace, you get the places where the original infected person went but then all the other places the other people went. So there is a longer list of venues for which they have either asked people to self-isolate and get tested or, where the risk was lower, asked people to be extra-vigilant about monitoring for symptoms. One of those places sits basically halfway between my house and work.

Vic is the mess. First they messed up their enforced quarantine of international arrivals. They decided to outsource security and it was sloppy. Naturally, when there was a subsequent outbreak in some public housing tower blocks, they managed to find 3 shifts of 500 police to keep the towers completely shut down, nobody in or out. Funny that. They've also mismanaged the aged care homes where you also get into standard issues about differing regulation and enforcement across public/private/religious facilities.

Another issue that has (not surprisingly) arisen is the problem of a casual workforce. Part of the problem in Vic aged care homes appears to be that, to make a living, many of these workers pick up a couple shifts in this facility, a couple more over here, another in a third and/or their employer or employment agency is just shifting them around to different facilities they operate. It was mind-numbingly obvious that this rotation needed to stop in a pandemic but it didn't. (It has in at least some other areas) It's possible this is also behind the Sydney Thai restaurant outbreak spreading to its other branch. There was a much earlier small cluster in some Vic McDonald's which also appeared due to an infected worker picking up shifts at different restaurants.
   68. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 29, 2020 at 06:06 PM (#5966742)
one woman who had 3 funerals in one day

Jesus, anyone'd be a fool to get close to her.

Sydney and Melbourne aren't quite as populous as Dallas and Houston

Wiki gives me Melbourne 4.9, Sydney 5.3M
Houston 2.3M, Dallas, 1.3M
Harris County 4.7M; the DFW Metroplex's urban pop is 5.5M (the MSA is 6.3)
What am I not understanding about differences in how city populations are totaled.

I'd like to have Australia's COVID problem.
   69. cardsfanboy Posted: July 29, 2020 at 08:43 PM (#5966774)
What am I not understanding about differences in how city populations are totaled.


Agreed, depending on how it's measured St Louis has a population of around 500,000 or close to 2.5 mil... St Louis and St Louis county has maybe a radius of 30 miles that encompasses 3 or so mil people, but there are all different ways to divide that up. And it's not even that easy to find the real numbers.
   70. tshipman Posted: July 30, 2020 at 03:19 PM (#5966955)
Let’s look at the other first world countries. Their economies are in much worse shape than ours.


Would just like to point out how today's GDP release illustrates starkly how much bullshit was being shoveled here.
   71. BDC Posted: July 31, 2020 at 09:20 AM (#5967084)
For comparison purposes, Australia and Texas are a fairly close match

Tangential to your point, Walt, but one interesting difference between the two is that in Texas we have no clue as to how the virus is spreading. Narrative reconstructions like the ones you discuss re: restaurants and funerals are unknown here.

   72. SoSH U at work Posted: July 31, 2020 at 09:26 AM (#5967086)
Welcome back, BDC (please hang around).
   73. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 31, 2020 at 09:50 AM (#5967094)
Cosign 72!
   74. Howie Menckel Posted: July 31, 2020 at 10:03 AM (#5967096)
Cardinals' season was just paused re COVID, so no game vs Brewers tonight and...
   75. Hot Wheeling American Posted: July 31, 2020 at 10:37 AM (#5967103)
Consider me a BDC Bro!
   76. BDC Posted: July 31, 2020 at 01:14 PM (#5967146)
Thanks, everyone, I hope to stop in fairly often :)
   77. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 31, 2020 at 02:19 PM (#5967160)
C'mon, BDC, that's not fair. They're doing the more important task of proving that government is the problem because it can't succeed at anything. Viruses and lives come and go, but what truly matters is eternal.
   78. BDC Posted: July 31, 2020 at 05:07 PM (#5967200)
:) I am going back into the classroom in 3-1/2 weeks, so I may find out about the eternal shortly thereafter ...

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