This seems like a lot?

Yoshida for a smidge more money than the obviously superior Suzuki gives me a bit of a Rusney-Abreu vibe.

Can I say that his name makes me think he’s an amalgamation of every Japanese pitcher who has pitched in the majors? Or should I keep my ignorance to myself?

Did I just post this? Really?

Yoshida is batting .371 in my OOTP World Winter Baseball League: here.

His contact numbers are off the charts, comparable to Ichiro. Fangraphs has him as a 35+ prospect with no power--Lenny Harris comp. I would love to see what kind of projection he gets

That FG scouting report seems like an outlier.

BA is more like what I’d expect - only above average tool is contact ability, only above average skill is command of the strike zone. 45 power and bad defense (lacks range). Still a 50 Medium … but this is an overpay if that’s correct.

Average player for $18 mil/year? Sounds about right.

In some ways I like his offensive profile better than Seiya's.

Man,based on this, Nimmo is gonna get PAID !

BB/K last 3 years in Japan:

Yoshida
2020: 72/29, 492 PA
2021: 58/26, 455 PA
2022: 80/41, 508 PA

Ichiro
1998: 43/35, 558 PA
1999: 45/46, 468 PA
2000: 54/36, 459 PA

Ichiro hit for a higher average, Yoshida drew more walks and hit for more power.

The Red Sox made their first major counter move to the rival Yankees

Checkmate NY! Sure, you've got your 60+ homer, CF playin', 8WAR per 650PA gigantor, but we now have.....Ichiro lite?

We're hoping we can just slice sh*tloads of doubles off the monster a la Wad Boggs, right?

Bloom is usually so risk averse that it's surprising to see him shell out this much for an international player. They must really love how his game translates.

Again, let me reiterate, I have 20 moves I was thinking this team could/should do and this was not on the list. Reason 1197 why I'm not a GM(or whatever) and making these decisions as I have to assume those guys are much smarter then I am.

Ichiro lite?

BB-Ref has Yoshida a pound heavier (and 3” shorter) than Ichiro. However, we all know Suzuki could gain a couple of pounds if he wanted to.

I know nothing about this player, but have to say given the FA OF pool outside of Judge, it's not a complete surprise that Bloom went out of the box to fill the OF slot that was open/gaping.

But, again, hard to see how some of these moves are made and Xander re-signed and Devers extended. They're not going willy-nilly past the cap.

But, again, hard to see how some of these moves are made and Xander re-signed and Devers extended. They're not going willy-nilly past the cap.

Should they refuse to do anything else until Bogaerts signs?

Should they refuse to do anything else until Bogaerts signs?

That didn't last long. Bogaerts signed with the Padres - 11 years, $280 million.

Bogaerts signed with the Padres - 11 years, $280 million.

Just saw this. As a Red Sox fan, I'm thinking, holy cow that is not the contract I expected. No way the Sox were going there.

It seems like an overpay, but maybe I need to adjust my thinking. If they want to keep Devers, they'll need to pony up 10/300 I think.

Mayer had better get really good, really fast!

I can't begin to wrap my mind around that Bogaerts contract. $25 per year sure; 6 years, maybe 7 ... don't think I'd do it but couldn't rule it out given Bryant for example. For 11 years? And with Machado, Kim, Tatis, Cronenworth all around? Have they found somebody to take Tatis? Are they convinced Machado is opting out? The whole "sign a guy through 36 but no later unless necessary" thing seems out the window now.

So I ain't guessing years/$ on nobody this offseason ... or at least not until tomorrow.

So I ain't guessing years/$ on nobody this offseason ... or at least not until tomorrow.

The lengths of some of these contracts has me believing that a lot of GMs/owners see significant salary inflation on the rise. If $25m currently represents ~12% of the luxury tax threshold, they must think that's going to be halved in a decade or else these contracts are going to be dead weight that they can't overcome at that point (ok, maybe the Yankees are fine spending way above the CBT every year, but I doubt SD and PHI plan to do that permanently). If that assumption is correct, we might think of a $25m AAV in 10 years the way we think of $12-15m now. We shall see.

#15–wasn’t suggesting they do nothing until Bogaerts signed; just that the amount of spending and payroll adding they were doing elsewhere made it pretty clear they weren’t going to do that AND add salary for a Bogaerts extension as well.

Look, were I the Red Sox I wouldn’t have made the Padres offer either. So in a way it’s understandable—by Age 38 it’s difficult to fathom where he plays other than DH. But I suppose the dead money at the end of the contract will wind up as deferred money by another name.

I certainly expected a higher AAV, but this is an insane contract for the Padres to offer. Can they really be planning to keep Soto with the other deals they have on the books?

As for the Red Sox, I just have no idea what the plan is.

I certainly expected a higher AAV, but this is an insane contract for the Padres to offer. Can they really be planning to keep Soto with the other deals they have on the books?

Maybe they just would strongly prefer to win a WS *this year* and are pushing for that. I give a ton of credit to the Pads right now, go big or go home. Or just meekly puddle along do a good bit of nothing like Boston.

Maybe they just would strongly prefer to win a WS *this year* and are pushing for that. I give a ton of credit to the Pads right now, go big or go home. Or just meekly puddle along do a good bit of nothing like Boston.

Oh totally agree. And as a player it wouldn't even be close. I'm not discounting what the Red Sox have accomplished under Henry by any means, but right now it's pretty clear who is willing to go all in to try to win.

I appreciate that trying to evaluate a team's plan for next year before they've finished trying to make all their moves is a little unfair, but...

I can't tell where the Red Sox think they are on the rebuilding spectrum. The signing of Jansen - a closer in his mid-30s getting $16m each of the next two years - is a move you make if you think you can compete in 2023. You don't sign an expensive closer like this unless you believe you're going to have a lot of close games of high consequence that need to be "saved".

You don't sign Chris Martin to 2/$17m unless you think you can compete this year.

But - unless they are planning to acquire another high-end shortstop via trade or FA - you're not competing for the AL pennant, or even the AL East, with the lineup they are poised to roll out there next year. I mean, what does it look like right now?

Yoshida
Hernandez
Casas
Devers
Verdugo
Story
Whoever the DH is (at this moment, Hosmer?)
Whoever the SS is (at this moment, they'd put Story here, and play Arroyo at 2B)
McGuire

That's pretty awful. Who cares who your closer is if this is what you're rolling out every day in a division which includes the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rays?

I will very much miss Bogaerts. We've been hearing about him since he was 17 years old. I went to see him in Portland in 2012, when he was 19 years old, and the talent was so exciting. Then he becomes an unlikely key part of the 2013 out-of-nowhere World Championship team, and from there, he has become a reliable star. My kids, who are not big baseball fans, liked Xander from the start because he had the cool name, they knew he was really good, and he was familiar.

I thought of him, going back to when he was coming up, as maybe being our Robin Yount - the really young shortstop who fills out and gets some power, and ends up being this 20-year guy with the team who ends up doing things like getting 3000 hits and becoming synonymous with the franchise. He is really durable, never gets into drama, has become extremely consistent at a high level, and was a fan favorite.

This is suddenly not a very likable franchise - it feels rudderless, it lacks an identity, and as we here in New England have now exited an unprecedented era of sports success, the fan base is now fully aware that this is not 2001-2018 anymore. Tom Brady and David Ortiz are not walking through that door. Our football and baseball teams are "just another team" again, like everybody else.

We've been super-spoiled for a long time, and now the Celtics and Bruins are the dominant teams in their sports, and quickly drawing the attention and affection of our region. I'm not sure the Red Sox get how precarious their place in the New England sports hierarchy is at this moment. When they announced the signing of Yoshida and Jansen, my reaction was, "I don't ****ing care. Are you re-signing/extending Bogaerts/Devers?" I don't think they get that this is where most of New England is with this team now.

I'd like to think this means they're going to extend Devers--if only to salvage fans going ballistic--but I pretty strongly suspect that they have no interest in signing Devers to a 10- to 12-year deal on massive money when he'll be a 1B/DH for most of the contract (and if Casas is as good as projected, 1B will be taken up).

If Betts leaving was the beginning of the end of an era, Bogaerts/Devers leaving will be the actual end of the era.

And I'm with #25--I just don't see a plan. Yoshida, I get--I think they looked at the OF FA/trade options and decided to go another way. The rest I don't get unless they're planning on competing in 2023, which at this point seems unlikely. The Jansen signing in particular is completely baffling to me. I mean, I suppose they must be looking at Whitlock/Houck and see 2 150-IP starters for next year and say, hey we need bullpen help, but man... if you're going to do that to save on starter money, why not get the Devers extension done already?

Finally, while it would be, indeed, exciting to be a Padres fan in 2023, I can't really recall that many instances where "spend crazy money on all the good players and win NOW" actually worked. Maybe the Marlins in 1997? Diamondbacks in 2001? The Dodgers have sort of tried to do this, and it's worked once in about a decade of trying. But there's many different ways of winning, so maybe it'll work--and then the MLBPA can get all excited because the other teams will all want to emulate the strategy and salaries will skyrocket so much that in 2028 a backup C is making $20 million a season.

This is suddenly not a very likable franchise - it feels rudderless, it lacks an identity,

Honestly, this is my biggest disappointment with the organization right now. Xander's contract with the Pads is huge, so taking a huge step back, yeah, I am probably fine with the Sox not investing so much in him. But the org overall seems to have no idea what the #### they are doing, starting with the Eovaldi signing that effectively blocked the team from re-signing Betts. Since then they've picked up Christian Arroyo off of waivers, completed the Hembree/Workman trade for Pivetta & Seabold, signed Whitlock, signed Renfroe (then got negative value for him), traded for Ottavino (then got nothing for him), signed Hernandez, traded for Schwarber (then got nothing for him), signed Hill & Wacha & Paxton (and are now hoping Paxton gives them something going forward) and signed Story.

These are the highlights of the last few years. A utility infielder who is going to be asked to play way above his head, a 2B (no issues here, Story could be a good pick up), a 4th/5th SP in Pivetta, whatever Whitlock is, and a bunch of very short term pickups that have worked out, but for a season only, with no real thought to the future. And supposedly the Sox have a good farm system, which at this point is desperately needed, as it's expected to cover an OF spot, 1B, DH, and SS, and 2-3 starting pitchers.

There's no apparent long term plan, other than count on the minor league system and sign maybe one position player to a multi-year contract a year.

Good post Steve Balboni. Although I don't share the confusion about the reliever signings. It's not a binary thing where it's either all-in-win-now or tear-down-punt-the-season. Even during times when the team planning is incoherent and bumbling (eg everything post-2019) they thankfully haven't done a tear down and a complete gutting of the spending. If you really are searching for meaning in those reliever acquisitions, it hints that they won't trade Devers this winter for a bunch of teenagers. But, post-Mookie, my confidence in that statement is as strong as an empty dixie cup.

How old is yoshida anyways? Idont think the artcle said. Its pretty key to projecting him.

Also are the economists now predicting a recession in near future?

18 - I'm wondering if the Padres are figuring on everybody sliding down the defensive spectrum over time - like, even if Machado doesn't opt out, he'll be ready to move to DH around the time Xander moves to third. If that's the case, it's the same sort of long-term planning that led them to sign Machado before they were really expected to compete: Their home-grown stars were a year or two away, but that's no reason not to sign someone to a long-term contract that would include those years when he's available.

Still seems crazy to me, but that's not going to stop me from being upset Henry, Bloom, et al let this happen.

This is suddenly not a very likable franchise - it feels rudderless, it lacks an identity, and as we here in New England have now exited an unprecedented era of sports success, the fan base is now fully aware that this is not 2001-2018 anymore.

You can probably point to a good baseball/budget reason for everything that the team has done over the past four years, but the rapid disassembly of the 2018 team has just been demoralizing. You still see a lot of Betts jerseys in the stands, and the fans there were awfully supportive of Bradley on his return even if we all knew he should be a 4th outfielder at this point. Just a ton of affection for that group that and now a lot of fans wondering why they should get attached.

even if Machado doesn't opt out, he'll be ready to move to DH around the time Xander moves to third.

Machado is a few months older than Xander, and has always been a better defender, I would project Xander moving to DH or 1B before Machado.

Even during times when the team planning is incoherent and bumbling (eg everything post-2019) they thankfully haven't done a tear down and a complete gutting of the spending. If you really are searching for meaning in those reliever acquisitions, it hints that they won't trade Devers this winter for a bunch of teenagers.

How do 2-year deals for old relievers project confidence in the future when the team is probably looking at 82-win seasons? And I like him and all, but Devers is the worst of the big three the Sox had, why is he being touted as some sort of team saver? He is an awesome piece to have if the team is good, and he's young enough to build a new team around, don't get me wrong, I want him extended, but if he is the best player on the team, the team has issues. At this point the team is worse than it was at this time last year.

I think the combination of the Eovaldi deal (4/$68m), the Sale extension (5/$145m, covers 202-2024), and the Price contract (7/$217m) has ended up being a complete catastrophe for the team. Consider this:

Between 2019 and 2022, the Red Sox have paid the three of them a combined total of $252m - an average of $63 million a year each of the last four years for the three of them. Here is the total of the three of them for the Red Sox over the entire four years:

Sale: 36 GS, 195 IP, 4.09 ERA, 118 ERA+
Price: 22 GS, 107 IP, 4.28 ERA, 109 ERA+
Eovaldi: 84 GP, 73 GS, 407.2 IP, 4.15 ERA, 111 ERA+

Combined, that is 709 innings of 4.15 ERA pitching. That is $355,430 per inning pitched.

To put that in context, if you had a starting pitcher meeting the minimum level of innings to qualify for the ERA title (162 innings), that pitcher would make $57.6m at that rate of earnings per inning pitched.

Now, there are things I don't like about Bloom's work, and I also get that Dombrowski helped get us a flag that will fly forever...but any team that basically started their team-building for four straight years with a $63m anvil tied around their ankle (and a farm system cleaned out by Dombrowski) is going to have some problems building a team.

Price and Eovaldi are cleared out. Sale has two 2/$55m left; maybe he'll pitch, maybe he won't. Story is making between $20m and $25m a year for the next five years, unless he opts out after 2025. Yoshida is making $16m a year for the next five years. Jansen is making $16m each of the next two years.

You've got Devers making late-arb money; Hernandez on a 1/$10m deal; Barnes is making $7.5m in his final year...there is very little money now tied up on this roster. If he's not going to spend it on Bogaerts or Devers, then it's got to be going to somebody we're not talking about very much. Otherwise, they just aren't choosing to spend it in 2023.

Even during times when the team planning is incoherent and bumbling (eg everything post-2019) they thankfully haven't done a tear down and a complete gutting of the spending. If you really are searching for meaning in those reliever acquisitions, it hints that they won't trade Devers this winter for a bunch of teenagers.

How do 2-year deals for old relievers project confidence in the future when the team is probably looking at 82-win seasons? And I like him and all, but Devers is the worst of the big three the Sox had, why is he being touted as some sort of team saver? He is an awesome piece to have if the team is good, and he's young enough to build a new team around, don't get me wrong, I want him extended, but if he is the best player on the team, the team has issues. At this point the team is worse than it was at this time last year.

It doesn't project confidence in the future and I never said it did.

I no longer maintain my own MLE type models, but I do have some remaining scraps lying around which I dusted off and plugged Yoshida into and got .296/.345/.440 (note: I tended to come in as kind of generous to hitters coming from NPB - particularly in year one). Clay Davenport has .291/.357/.439, which is in the same ballpark. I guess we'll see what Dan and others show soon enough.
Feel like Nimmo with better health but less power, defense, etc... is a decent comp?

I certainly expected a higher AAV, but this is an insane contract for the Padres to offer. Can they really be planning to keep Soto with the other deals they have on the books?

No one, let alone the Padres, can plan on keeping Soto. Boras will put him on the open market no ifs, ands or buts. I'm impressed by what the Padres have done with Machado, then Tatis, and now this offseason by, at least ostensibly, offering big money to Judge, Turner and now Bogaerts. But realistically them signing Soto does not seem possible, and didn't seem possible before signing Bogaerts.

Machado is a few months older than Xander, and has always been a better defender, I would project Xander moving to DH or 1B before Machado.

Yes, this is a good take.

It doesn't project confidence in the future and I never said it did.

True. I guess I meant moreso that I don't see how this means they won't trade Devers.

I'm bummed. It looks like they never intended to keep him but wanted to look like they wanted to. 11/280 is nuts but who knows if we even get to this point if they make him a good offer before he reaches free agency.

Given how this off-season has gone so far, I expect Devers will be looking for 12+ years, miss 300s.

I no longer maintain my own MLE type models, but I do have some remaining scraps lying around which I dusted off and plugged Yoshida into and got .296/.345/.440 (note: I tended to come in as kind of generous to hitters coming from NPB - particularly in year one). Clay Davenport has .291/.357/.439, which is in the same ballpark. I

Well that is a little disappointing. Where did you find Davenport numbers? I was looking for them but his site is confusing.


The Bogaerts signing casts a new light on the Yoshida deal. As much as I don't think this is how Bloom would want to operate, I could see the team deciding they needed a big splash to offset this news. Ugh.

I feel like a good comp for Yoshida would be Benintendi.... when he's good. I like the signing just because I was getting sick of watching guys swinging from the heels and missing on high fastballs (Sorry, Kike and Trevor). At least you can put him at the top pf the lineup and forget about him. Like him way better than Suzuki, I think his window of effectiveness is longer. As for Bogaerts, thanks for the memories...but 11 years would have been insane.

In other bad news, Noah Song has been plucked in the Rule V draft by Phils. Was really hoping he could be a Lester-type of starter for us down the road after his military commitment.

I'm bummed. It looks like they never intended to keep him but wanted to look like they wanted to.

I'm worried more that it's not this, and they just don't know how much players cost and had no anticipation that free agent deals would be big this offseason.

Can they really be planning to keep Soto with the other deals they have on the books?

In line with #36 ... when the nerd sitting in one of the seats not around the table pipes up that 12 years, $500 M for Soto would be a steal, suddenly 11/$280 for Bogaerts starts to sound reasonable.

Yeah the last couple signings also make the Judge deal lol much better.

11/280 is nuts but who knows if we even get to this point if they make him a good offer before he reaches free agency.

Not matching the Padres may be reasonable, or perhaps even the prudent thing to do, but not making a meaningful extension offer before the 2022 season was the big mistake. The Red Sox final offer to Bogaerts during the Winter Meetings was reported as $27M per year for 6 years. Would that have produced an agreement in March? We’ll never know, but it was a lot closer to fair market value than the tacking on 1-year at $30M Boston offered then.

Not matching the Padres may be reasonable, or perhaps even the prudent thing to do, but not making a meaningful extension offer before the 2022 season was the big mistake.

Completely agree. The Sox had it lined up perfectly - pre-2020 make sure they signed people to as to allow for a Betts extension. Lock in Betts, extend Xander, lock in Xander, extend Devers.

Davenport DT on Yoshida
Don't know if that '23 projection includes '22 numbers, is made without them, or was made as if he had missed the year.

Also think Benintendi is a viable comp.
I prefer Suzuki to Yoshida, fwiw.

I no longer have an ESPN+ account, so I haven't read this, but: Kiley McDaniel on the contract being shockingly large.

McDaniel's explanation for leaving him off the top 50 is a weird one. He says he expected him to get $35-$50 mil--wouldn't that be easily top 50?

Was surmising (based on nothing) that Nimmo might be an upside comp for Yoshida. Nimmo's main offensive weapon is his 14% walk rate -- also a good BA and average power.

Nimmo 269/385/441 career
Yoshida 291/357/439 DT 2023
S Suzuki 262/336/433 MLB 2022
S Suzuki 269/350/483 DT 2023

So if Yoshida were to retain his walk rate or BA, he'd roughly match Nimmo's OBP. Neither projects to match Suzuki's power but obviously Nimmo tops him on OBP.

We have ZIPS projections for Yoshida and Steamer for Nimmo and Suzuki:

Nimmo 268/367/427
Suzuki 252/350/466
Yoshida 305/372/489

Still sort of apples to oranges but maybe closer?

FWIW Keith Law says the consensus he's heard is that Yoshida doesn't have power and "plays pepper with the infield." How a guy without speed hits .330 doing that is hard to fathom.

He also says that Japanese pitchers just don't come inside much and that's what most Japanese hitters struggle with when they come to MLB, which he also expects to be the case with Yoshida. Maybe? It's hard for me to believe that all of Japan just stays away from the inner half of the plate. And if pitchers throw inside off the plate to Yoshida it seems like he would just not swing, given his eye. We'll see.

Of course, the Red Sox could have signed both Nimmo and Yoshida, then moved Hernandez to the infield. But who knows what they're doing...

How a guy without speed hits .330 doing that is hard to fathom.

Wade Boggs. Granted he also played pepper off the Monster for a lot of doubles. Also late career Gwynn (young Tony had speed; old Tony sometimes added power). Lots of guys with doubles power (Grace, Casey, prime Ted Simmons spring to mind).

ZiPS seems high on Yoshida's ISO -- for sure if he can put up a 184 ISO, he'll be just fine; similarly I'll be very pleased if Suzuki's ISO cracks 200.

Wade Boggs. Granted he also played pepper off the Monster for a lot of doubles.

Playing pepper with the infield is what Ichiro did. Boggs didn't hit grounders and breast them out. He hit the ball into the outfield.

How a guy without speed hits .330 doing that is hard to fathom.

Luis Arraez has hit .334, .321, and .316 in his four seasons.

Last year, he was ranked 367 out of 582 in sprint speed.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard

1. There's a good chance that "plays pepper with the infield" is not meant to be taken literally. Seeing as how Yoshida has over 300 XBH in his 900 Japanes hits, I'm guessing he has hit a few balls to the OF. Difficult to post a 212 ISO hitting GBs.

Lord knows Ichiro had an insane number of IF hits but still <25% of his total. Ichiro had a 54% GB rate -- what we have of Boggs was lower but still 47%, above league average. We have only about half of Boggs' hits, looks like 14% of those were IF hits. About 40% of his hits came on GBs in that period; Ichiro was also about 40%.

Luis Arraez has hit .334, .321, and .316 in his four seasons.

I wasn't saying that you can't have a high average if you're not fast. Walt's example of Boggs is a good one in that regard.

1. There's a good chance that "plays pepper with the infield" is not meant to be taken literally. Seeing as how Yoshida has over 300 XBH in his 900 Japanes hits, I'm guessing he has hit a few balls to the OF. Difficult to post a 212 ISO hitting GBs.

Yeah, I suppose maybe I'm taking it too literally. However, picturing Yoshida slapping the balls at the infielders and having them toss it back for him to slap it again would be fun to watch. Too bad it is banned in MLB.

Lord knows Ichiro had an insane number of IF hits but still <25% of his total. Ichiro had a 54% GB rate -- what we have of Boggs was lower but still 47%, above league average. We have only about half of Boggs' hits, looks like 14% of those were IF hits. About 40% of his hits came on GBs in that period; Ichiro was also about 40%.

I took a look at his infield hit numbers and was astounded. More than 50 in some years! (I was also surprised to see that 'normal' hitters often get in the 20-30 range.) I tried tweaking Ichiro's numbers from his first few years to remove the extra infield hits and add a few walks as a sort of comp for Yoshida. The result was something like .290/.360/.410.

It's hard for me to believe that all of Japan just stays away from the inner half of the plate.

watch some japanese baseball. believe with your own eyes.

One for the OH NO files:

Steamer projection is now up on FG:

.218/.284/.344, 40 BB, 137 K, -0.6 WAR.

????

Yoshida was remarkably consistent in Japan, and is only 29. Not sure why he’d be projected to fall off a cliff like that. You’d think the consistency alone would bode well for him in any projection system.

59 - On the one hand, that's really alarming; on the other, it's so alarming as to make me wonder just how he broke the algorithm.

Steamer projection is now up on FG

Those are from FanGraphs Depth Chart - which is a combination of Steamer and ZIPS, neither of which have been released for Yoshida. So I'm not sure where those numbers are from, but I wouldn't put too much value on them

This article has ZIPs projecting him .305/.372/.489

Right now depth charts are based on Steamer, presumably until ZIPS is complete.

On the other hand, if it was the average of the two, his Steamer projection must be sublime.

His Steamer projection now says .298/.388/.479 !

At this rate by next week he'll be Ted Williams.

You're welcome

Fangraphs now has projections from THE BAT listed. Yoshida: .283/.365/.458