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Saturday, November 02, 2019

McCarthy: the nerds cost the Astros the World Series and it was glorious to watch

Speaking of dumb narratives…

Jim Furtado Posted: November 02, 2019 at 08:59 AM | 36 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: astros, world series

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   1. Stormy JE Posted: November 02, 2019 at 10:11 AM (#5898074)
To draw these conclusions in a column in 2019 you would really have to be living in your mother's basement.
   2. Belfry Bob Posted: November 02, 2019 at 10:19 AM (#5898078)
Astros fan...looked like the G-man was gassed to me...a 'gut reaction' to pull him was just as probable as a 'stats reaction'.

Silliness.
   3. Tim M Posted: November 02, 2019 at 11:10 AM (#5898088)
So 'Revenge of the Nerds' is no longer a feel-good story? Revenge of the Jocks gets the cheers now?
   4. Astroenteritis Posted: November 02, 2019 at 11:23 AM (#5898089)
Yeah, it's been torture being in the playoffs and even World Series so often these last five years. Damn you nerds!
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 02, 2019 at 11:28 AM (#5898090)
So 'Revenge of the Nerds' is no longer a feel-good story?

Once you're in a position of power, and can abuse that power, you're not really a nerd anymore.

I mean once a high school nerd is a CEO and starts discriminating in hiring, and sexually harassing women, and shipping jobs overseas, everyone's going to hate him too.
   6. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: November 02, 2019 at 11:29 AM (#5898091)
Pass
   7. Itchy Row Posted: November 02, 2019 at 11:58 AM (#5898096)
I only clicked to make sure McCarthy wasn’t Brandon McCarthy. I’m glad it wasn’t.
   8. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 02, 2019 at 12:06 PM (#5898098)
I mean once a high school nerd is a CEO and starts discriminating in hiring, and sexually harassing women, and shipping jobs overseas, everyone's going to hate him too.
Eh, they’d vote for him for president if he pissed off teh libz enough.
   9. SoSH U at work Posted: November 02, 2019 at 12:22 PM (#5898099)
I don't think the nerds cost the Astros anything in this World Series. But it was quite satisfying that the FO asshats in Houston weren't celebrating when it ended.
   10. Sunday silence Posted: November 02, 2019 at 12:38 PM (#5898101)
yes its a stupid conclusion, but the basic idea that pulling Greinke (sp?) was insane I think is right. He was dealing. The Nats werent even hitting the ball hard. He did the same thing w/ Irquaddy or whatever his name is. THat guy was also pitching strong.

I wish there was a better way to measure that then Game Score. I mean Game Score is a good idea and dont want to discredit Bill James at all. BUt is there another way to measure how weak the balls were being hit? There must be some objective standard to demonstrate that Greinke was still strong
   11. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: November 02, 2019 at 12:41 PM (#5898105)
The Curse of Brandon Taubman
   12. Mr Dashwood Posted: November 02, 2019 at 01:20 PM (#5898114)
I think this article is hyperbolic and shows the superb analysis available to 20/20 hindsight.

But..
Throwing a two-hitter in Game 7 of the World Series. Done at 80 pitches...
10 years ago, there wouldn't have even been action behind Greinke in that situation, but the baseball world has gone crazy and Hinch became the face of that madness Wednesday night.

...is he right?

I had a look at 2009 and 2008, but there wasn't anything really comparable. The closest I found were Sabathia pulled in game 4 in 2009, but he was over 100 pitches, and Moyer in game 3 in 2008, but he was at nearly 100 pitches.

I dunno. Baseball is hard, even with spreadsheets.
   13. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 02, 2019 at 02:09 PM (#5898117)
Not only that, but it's not like the Astros put in some random guy off the street. Year in, year out, for the past five sasons, Will Harris has been one of the best relievers in baseball, and the only run he'd given up in the 11 previous appearances this October was a homer to Rendon the night before. I don't think Greinke was tired, but he'd given up a homer and a walk. If he'd then allowed a run-scoring hit to Kendrick, everyone in the world would have been asking why Greinke wasn't pulled after the homer and walk.
   14. depletion Posted: November 02, 2019 at 03:51 PM (#5898134)
I generally find it a bit silly when fans "know" better than the manager and pitching coach when to pull a pitcher. Greinke had great motion and location early in the game, but, because his velocity is subpar, if either one of those qualities fade his performance could drop off rapidly. The manager and pitching coach have watched every single pitch, hit, walk and foul ball in his play for the Astros this year. As Los Angeles El Hombre states, the guy they brought in had a 1.50 ERA this year.
   15. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 02, 2019 at 03:52 PM (#5898135)
Except for the nerd criticism, the complaint about removing Greinke was echoed fairly strongly at BBTF, although staying with a tiring Greinke seems at odds with the near-constant harping here about managers staying too long with postseason starters. Greinke hadn’t made it through the 5th inning in his last two postseason starts, Hinch would have been pushing his luck to stay with him when he had his previously-effective bullpen lined up.
   16. Walt Davis Posted: November 02, 2019 at 05:48 PM (#5898178)
If you trust your elite starting pitchers the way Dave Martinez did ...

Leaving aside relative quality of the bullpens

Corbin: 1 GS, 6 IP, 4 R, 96 pitches
Sanchez: 1 GS, 5.1 IP, 4 R, 93 pitches
Scherzer: 2 GS, 10 IP, 4 R, 19 baserunners, 215 pitches
Strasburg: 2 GS, 14.1 IP, 4 R, 218 pitches

So Martinez trusted them in terms of pitch counts but generally they pitched pretty poorly. Game by game:

G1: Scherzer is already around 100 pitches through 4 with a 5-2 lead and about to face 3-4-5. He throws a perfect 5th. The game is far from over of course.

G2: Strasburg on 86 pitches facing 456 in the 6th tied 2-2. He's at 100 with 12- and stays in for Correa and PH Tucker. Gets them both on 14 pitches. Nats bust it open with 6 runs. Given it took 14 pitches, he was probably hanging by a thread but Martinez trusted him and he got out of it.

G3: Trailing 2-1 after 4 on a neglible pitch count, Sanchez gives up a double and two singles to fall to 3-1. He comes out for the 6th, throws 2 pitches with Chirinos HR on the second one. IS LEFT IN to walk Tucker on 8 pitches. Just dumb.

G4: Corbin is already down 4-0 through 4. Is left in to face 3-4-5 in the 5th and 6-7-8 in the 6th, 29 pitches. He managed that one like a regular season game where you leave the SP in to get his 100ish pitchers even though he hasn't pitched well.

G5: Joe Ross, not an elite SP, down 4-0 through 4, left in for the 5th anyway, perfect inning. Unlikely to matter much one way or the other.

G6: Strasburg's gem. Hinch had the moment. Verlander gives up the tying HR in top 5 on 79th pitch. 9 pitches later he gives up the tie-breaking HR. Does not come out for the 6th, Peacock retires 4 of 5 batters before Harris gives up Rendon's HR.

G7: Down 1-0 on 76 pitches entering the 5th, single, K, groundout, walk ... that was 17 pitches ... single on 5th pitch, now down 2-0, another 5 pitches to get out of it.

Martinez "trusted" his guys in pitch count terms but, other than Strasburg's gem, none of them went more than 6 IP so they never pitched efficiently. Nats starters made it through 40.2 innings, Astros starters threw 41. The Nats starters were generally less efficient in pitch count terms. Scherzer had a WHIP of 1.9; Sanchez 2; and Corbin 1.5 in his start. Other than Strasburg, they were not pitching well. "Trusting" Sanchez in G3 didn't work out well; "trusting" Scherzer in the G7 didn't work out well; "trusting" Strasburg in G2 did although they blew it open later so maybe it didn't matter. Probably Martinez would have pushed them deeper in terms of innings if they had been more efficient.

Martinez did trust Corbin the reliever ... needed after trusting Scherzer to give up another run.

A couple of those innings show the danger of "trusting" the starter on a relatively low pitch count. G2 Strasburg got out of it but that was a 28-pitch inning. G7 Scherzer is on "just" 76 pitches -- and that 5th inning took 27 pitches. Low pitch counts often become 100ish pitch counts in an inning or less. In the playoffs "trusting" your SP to get to 100 pitches by throwing 20 pitches to 4 batters getting 2 outs and putting 2 guys on is far from ideal.

Hinch had a G7-like moment in G6 with Verlander and found himself going from 2-1 to 2-3. Eaton's tying HR looked "innocent" enough, he got Rendon on 4 pitches ... trust him! (I'd have stuck with Verlander too.) Can't blame him for being doubly gunshy with the lesser starter in G7.
   17. michaelplank has knowledgeable eyes Posted: November 02, 2019 at 06:38 PM (#5898201)
If your plan is to score 2 whole runs and win, it doesn't too much who pitches when or how much.
   18. Stormy JE Posted: November 02, 2019 at 07:29 PM (#5898213)
yes its a stupid conclusion, but the basic idea that pulling Greinke (sp?) was insane I think is right. He was dealing. The Nats werent even hitting the ball hard. He did the same thing w/ Irquaddy or whatever his name is. THat guy was also pitching strong.
Michael Petriello says hello.
   19. Sunday silence Posted: November 02, 2019 at 08:06 PM (#5898216)

So Martinez trusted them in terms of pitch counts but generally they pitched pretty poorly.


Does the quality of the opposing batters factor into any of this?
   20. Dock Ellis Posted: November 02, 2019 at 08:34 PM (#5898223)
So 'Revenge of the Nerds' is no longer a feel-good story?

Not really! It hasn't aged well. There's a rape scene.
   21. puck Posted: November 02, 2019 at 09:11 PM (#5898225)
Not really! It hasn't aged well. There's a rape scene.


Well, it was about frats. Pretty good there was only one.
   22. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 02, 2019 at 10:26 PM (#5898236)
Does the quality of the opposing batters factor into any of this?
It's possible that Howie Kendrick, a quality big league hitter, put a quality big league swing on a good pitch... but then we wouldn't be able to complain about stuff.
   23. winnipegwhip Posted: November 02, 2019 at 11:29 PM (#5898246)
   24. Shredder Posted: November 02, 2019 at 11:32 PM (#5898247)
I had a look at 2009 and 2008, but there wasn't anything really comparable. The closest I found were Sabathia pulled in game 4 in 2009, but he was over 100 pitches, and Moyer in game 3 in 2008, but he was at nearly 100 pitches.
Everyone knows the game has changed a great deal, but I was at game four between the Angels and Red Sox in 1986. Clemens pitched into the ninth with 3-0 lead, and allowed a lead off homer to Doug DeCinces. In 2019, if he'd still been in the game at that point, he would have been yanked right there. He was left in long enough to allow two more hits, leaving after 8 and a third. He was replaced by Calvin Schiraldi, who allowed the two inherited runners to score, the last on a bases loaded HBP of Brian Downing that forced in the run and sent the game to extra innings. The Angels won two innings later in the 11th when Bobby Grich hitting a single to score the winning run off of......Calvin Schiraldi!! In this day and age, there would have been like five different relievers used in that stretch.
   25. Shredder Posted: November 02, 2019 at 11:34 PM (#5898250)
Well, it was about frats. Pretty good there was only one.
They weren't even the rapists!
   26. Srul Itza At Home Posted: November 03, 2019 at 12:00 AM (#5898255)
Lambda Lambda Lambda was the Nerds' frat.
   27. Walt Davis Posted: November 03, 2019 at 01:39 AM (#5898279)
Does the quality of the opposing batters factor into any of this?

It should IMO but in these cases, it wasn't clear that it did particularly. Scherzer in G1 was around 100 and was left in to face 3-4-5. G2 Strasburg was still pretty low but facing 4-5-6 and was around 100 when he faced Correa (not an easy hitter) with 2 on and one out. On Sanchez in G3, I should clarify that I think it was only "dumb" to leave him in after the HR to Chirinos although I think it was pretty questionable to put him out there in the 6th at all. But yeah, at least that was the bottom of the order. G4 Corbin in the 5th to face 3-4-5 is questionable but he did his job and again in the 6th so it certainly worked.

The G6 moment with Verlander was top 5th and top of the lineup. Obviously you're not pulling Verlander before the 5th begins and, as I said, I seriously doubt I'd have pulled him after the tying HR either. Just an example that trusting the pitcher doesn't always work.

Finally the G7 t5 for Scherzer was 3-4-5 again. To the extent you think about pulling him, he's already thrown 93 on the day and 17 in this inning when Correa comes up. Hardly disastrous -- a 5-pitch single to Correa, a 5-pitch K of Chirinos -- either decision is defensible IMO and pulling Scherzer then giving up the single (or worse) will get you raked over the coals. Greinke t7 was facing 2-3-4. Given Eaton and Soto are LHB possibly the perfect time for a LHR ... which the Astros didn't even have (barely had any in the regular season). But he was cruising and he's Greinke -- possibly needing 6 pitches to get Eaton followed by the Rendon HR should have been taken as an indicator but the 5-pitch walk to Soto didn't have to be a big deal.

So it doesn't look to me like who was coming up made much of a difference to Martinez -- or if it did, the decision was "I'd rather have my SP on XX pitches to face 3-4-5 than a fresh reliever." Given he went to Corbin first over a reliever in G1 and G7, that might have been what he was thinking.
   28. Bote Man Posted: November 03, 2019 at 06:15 AM (#5898285)
Finally the G7 t5 for Scherzer was 3-4-5 again. To the extent you think about pulling him, he's already thrown 93 on the day and 17 in this inning when Correa comes up. Hardly disastrous

This decision doesn't occur in a vacuum: Scherzer had to miss his previously scheduled start because his back basically went on hiatus. Some cortisone shot(s) and 48 hours later he pronounced himself ready to go, but every additional pitch in Game 7 became riskier than the last.
   29. Sunday silence Posted: November 03, 2019 at 06:34 AM (#5898286)
Scherzer looked like he was about to get lit up at any moment. I dont think there would have been much if any criticism if he had been pulled early.
   30. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 03, 2019 at 09:03 AM (#5898293)
Even w/o the rape scene, hard to make a case for that movie having aged well. Though the Tri Lambs were ahead of their time.
   31. Walt Davis Posted: November 03, 2019 at 04:39 PM (#5898359)
#28-29: I didn't see the game so no comment on how he looked. And I agree, given the back/neck issue, he should have been on a short lease. I'm just saying that the way it worked out, a groundball single and a K is not the sort of outcome we can point to as evidence that he was pretty clearly toast.
   32. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: November 03, 2019 at 07:14 PM (#5898379)
I think if there is a story of this game it’s the Astros failure to add runs in the first few innings. They were hitting the ball hard off Scherzer but he got through it and the Nationals took advantage later.

I thought Greinke was lifted pretty quickly, it felt like a bit of a panic move but he had just allowed a homer and a walk (albeit to Soto which isn’t the worst result). Given the spot they were in and the fact that Harris is pretty good I think it was an either/or decision that looks a lot worse because of what happened. I felt the bigger mistake was not using Cole to start the 8th or 9th. If he decides to ride Osuna into the 8th I get that but man I hate going to Smith rather than Cole to start the 9th.
   33. Sunday silence Posted: November 03, 2019 at 08:04 PM (#5898383)
it was funny because during the first 6 1/2 inn. if any manager was to be criticized it was Martinez cause as we said they were hitting the ball hard off him.
   34. Howie Menckel Posted: November 03, 2019 at 08:09 PM (#5898385)
I felt the bigger mistake was not using Cole to start the 8th or 9th.

it wasn't up to Hinch. Team ColeBoras decided he would not enter in the middle of an inning, nor enter without a lead.

unless you're ascrinbing the error to ColeBoras.
   35. RoyalFlush Posted: November 04, 2019 at 04:26 PM (#5898571)

it wasn't up to Hinch. Team ColeBoras decided he would not enter in the middle of an inning, nor enter without a lead.

unless you're ascrinbing the error to ColeBoras.


I blame Hinch for agreeing to "conditions" in the first place. For game 7 - all hands should be on deck. I would have let Greinke face a few more, but regardless, the entire gameplan for Hinch should have simply been Greinke > Cole. End of story. Lose with your best guys out there.
   36. Sunday silence Posted: November 04, 2019 at 07:57 PM (#5898620)
Didnt AJ BUrnett do this to the Pirates in the final game, the last time they were in the playoffs? I think he said he would not pitch in relief. I thought that was a dick move.

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