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Thursday, December 05, 2019

Mets acquiring center fielder Jake Marisnick from Astros

The Mets are acquiring Jake Marisnick from the Astros for prospects Blake Taylor and Kenedy Corona.

Marisnick, 28, is a right-handed hitter with a strong defensive acumen and appears to be the Mets’ choice to replace Juan Lagares, whose 2020 option the team decline earlier this offseason.

Taylor, 24, is a right-handed reliever who rose to Triple-A this season with a 2.16 ERA split between three levels. Corona, a 19-year-old outfielder, hit .311 for the Port St. Lucie Mets in the Single-A Gulf Coast League in his first season in the Mets system. Neither is considered a high-level prospect.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 05, 2019 at 11:42 AM | 43 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: astros, jake marisnick, mets

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   1. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 05, 2019 at 12:26 PM (#5905920)
Not gonna lie, I'd be a little bit leery about trading for any Astros hitters in the near term. At least until we see what effect not having foreknowledge about upcoming pitches has on their performance.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 05, 2019 at 12:30 PM (#5905921)
Not gonna lie, I'd be a little bit leery about trading for any Astros hitters in the near term. At least until we see what effect not having foreknowledge about upcoming pitches has on their performance.

Eh, Marisnick is a glove guy. He hasn't been particularly better with the bat the last couple of years.
   3. The Duke Posted: December 05, 2019 at 12:57 PM (#5905939)
How do you discount the cheating ? I wouldn’t touch any of them until I knew more
   4. Zonk didn't order a hit on an ambassador Posted: December 05, 2019 at 01:08 PM (#5905949)
Eh, Marisnick is a glove guy. He hasn't been particularly better with the bat the last couple of years.


Where "years" means all of them except that one he hit 243/319/496 -- which helps his 29 yo, 1800 PA career mark up to 227/280/380.

I suppose if his job is just to be the glove OF who gets a start or two a week against LHP against whom he flails slightly less obviously...
   5. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 05, 2019 at 01:44 PM (#5905964)
He hasn't been particularly better with the bat the last couple of years.


Beg to differ:

Marisnick as Astro, pre-2017: .224/.270/.359 (74 OPS+)
Marisnick as Astro, 2017-2019: .230/.294/.434 (93 OPS+)

He went from a guy who was terrible on offense in general to a guy who could hit for enough power to justify taking advantage of his glove.
   6. Howie Menckel Posted: December 05, 2019 at 01:50 PM (#5905969)
Marisnick OPS+
2017 119
2018 83
2019 80

CAREER 79
   7. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 05, 2019 at 01:51 PM (#5905970)
At least until we see what effect not having foreknowledge about upcoming pitches has on their performance.


Maybe the Mets want some pointers.
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 05, 2019 at 01:52 PM (#5905971)
Beg to differ:

Marisnick as Astro, pre-2017: .224/.270/.359 (74 OPS+)
Marisnick as Astro, 2017-2019: .230/.294/.434 (93 OPS+)

He went from a guy who was terrible on offense in general to a guy who could hit for enough power to justify taking advantage of his glove.


He also went from being 22-25 to being 26-28. That looks exactly like the peak-age power spike you'd expect.

His 2017 is the only outlier year (in a 259 PA sample). 2018 and 2019 are basically identical to 2015.

Marisnick is a glove first, 80-85 wRC+ guy, who shouldn't play against the toughest RHP.
   9. Dog on the sidewalk has an ugly bracelet Posted: December 05, 2019 at 02:02 PM (#5905975)
Pretty sure he won't be playing much against any RHP as long as they have a healthy roster.
   10. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 05, 2019 at 02:07 PM (#5905976)
He also went from being 22-25 to being 26-28. That looks exactly like the peak-age power spike you'd expect.


You expect a power increase at those ages, but you don't necessarily expect that much of one. Some of it was probably age-related, sure, but how much?

If the answer is less than 100%, you just overpaid for him.
   11. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 05, 2019 at 02:07 PM (#5905977)
Marisnick OPS+
2017 119
2018 83
2019 80

CAREER 79


So a guy has an OPS+ above his career average three years in a row, and that's evidence that he wasn't getting any benefit from the cheating?
   12. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: December 05, 2019 at 02:09 PM (#5905978)
Maybe the Mets want some pointers.
Pretty sure their manager doesn't need any.
   13. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: December 05, 2019 at 02:29 PM (#5905982)
At least until we see what effect not having foreknowledge about upcoming pitches has on their performance.


Maybe the Mets want some pointers.


Remember who the manager is, nowadays... (hashtagjustsayin)

EDIT: frosty bevvie for the Face-Man.
   14. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: December 05, 2019 at 02:48 PM (#5905990)
as long as they have a healthy roster.


You know which team we're talking about, right?
   15. Walt Davis Posted: December 05, 2019 at 03:27 PM (#5906005)
So a guy has an OPS+ above his career average three years in a row, and that's evidence that he wasn't getting any benefit from the cheating?

Oh c'mon. 80 and 83 are not "above" 79 in any meaningful sense, especially in samples of 235 and 318 PA. Over the last 5 "seasons," Marisnick has an OPS+ of 84 with one year way under (2016), one year way over (2017) and years of 84, 83 and 80. Heck, add 2014 in and it leaves him with a career OPS+ of 83. His career OPS+ is dragged down to 79 by 118 PAs of horribleness at 22.

It's called variation.
   16. Tom Nawrocki Posted: December 05, 2019 at 03:35 PM (#5906011)
Marisnick had a huge home/road split in 2017: .308/.373/.636 in Houston but .187/.273/.374 on the road. The past two years, he hasn't shown any type of home/road split at all.

That's similar to the team as a whole, which played very well in Houston in 2017 but has been better on the road each of the past two years. Of course, the hidden-monitor-garbage-banging trick only works at home. Is it possible they stopped doing it after 2017?
   17. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 05, 2019 at 03:46 PM (#5906014)
Over the last 5 "seasons," Marisnick has an OPS+ of 84 with one year way under (2016), one year way over (2017) and years of 84, 83 and 80.


So basically what you're saying is that if you arbitrarily cross out all the pre-cheating seasons where he didn't hit well and all the post-cheating seasons where he did, the remaining ones look pretty similar?

Boy, that's some good methodology, Walt.
   18. formerly dp Posted: December 05, 2019 at 04:30 PM (#5906043)
All of this aside, why the f would they give of prospects of any sort for Juan Lagares 2.0? This is the type of dude you sign for $3 M at the end of the offseason, not someone you give up prospects of any grade for.
   19. Sunday silence Posted: December 05, 2019 at 04:33 PM (#5906045)

So basically what you're saying is that if you arbitrarily cross out all the pre-cheating seasons where he didn't hit well and all the post-cheating seasons where he did, the remaining ones look pretty similar?


Checkmate baseball-savant!
   20. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 05, 2019 at 04:41 PM (#5906053)

All of this aside, why the f would they give of prospects of any sort for Juan Lagares 2.0? This is the type of dude you sign for $3 M at the end of the offseason, not someone you give up prospects of any grade for.


The funny thing is, this could also apply a year ago, when they traded for Keon Broxton!
   21. The Duke Posted: December 05, 2019 at 04:42 PM (#5906054)
Is it possible they stopped cheating in 2017? This is always a funny question to me. They cheated and they won the World Series. So the logical conclusion is not “they must have stopped cheating I’m the future ”. I think the logical conclusion is they found a way to cheat both at home and away that had nothing to do with trash cans.
   22. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 05, 2019 at 04:55 PM (#5906062)
Boy, that's some good methodology, Walt.

Being as dumb as you are must be exhausting.
   23. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 05, 2019 at 05:05 PM (#5906065)
Is it possible they stopped cheating in 2017? This is always a funny question to me. They cheated and they won the World Series. So the logical conclusion is not “they must have stopped cheating I’m the future ”. I think the logical conclusion is they found a way to cheat both at home and away that had nothing to do with trash cans.

No. There's been video/audio evidence of the trash can banging found from 2019 too. Most notably by someone or something called "Jomboy".
   24. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 05, 2019 at 05:42 PM (#5906081)
Being as dumb as you are must be exhausting.


Explain to me how that isn't what he's doing in post #15. Because from where I'm sitting, it just looks like a series of special pleadings.

If you have a guy who within a three-year span put up two seasons that are close together and a third one that isn't, the normal quick-and-dirty way to assess his true-talent level of ability over that time frame would be to take the weighted mean of all three and make appropriate adjustments, not to just cross off the one that's different and say, "Eh, close enough."
   25. Walt Davis Posted: December 05, 2019 at 06:18 PM (#5906089)
Boy, that's some good methodology, Walt.

No, it's good methodology you jackass.

A career 79 OPS+ and a 83 seasonal OPS+ are in no way substantially different which anybody with even a teeny knowledge of baseball or statistics knows perfecyly well -- including you Vlad. And his career OPS+ is only as low as 79 because of a teeny sample of 118 PA at the age of 22. From ages 23-28, a period covering 93.6% of Marisnick's career, he has an 83 OPS+. His last two seasons of 83 and 80 OPS+ are about as close as you can possibly be to that. You are accusing a guy of cheating because of 118 terrible PA he had at the age of 22.

Far from ignoring the years when he didn't hit, this includes a year of 72 OPS+ and a year of 62 OPS+.

So take his entire career and there's nothing fishy about a small sample of 119 OPS+ and his last two seasons show amazing consistency, not something the least bit out of the ordinary. Take the last 6 years and there's nothing weird. Take the last 5 years and there's nothing weird. Take the last 4 years and there's nothing weird. Take the last 2 years and there's nothing weird. The only way you can make him look weird is by taking the last 3 and only the last 3 years ... and you dare to accuse somebody else of cherry-picking.

No offense Vlad but referring to seasons of 83 OPS+ and 80 OPS+ as above-average for a 79 career OPS+ hitter is among the more numerically ignorant things somebody has said here in a long time. All you had to do was say "we know they cheated in 2017 and his 2017 really stands out" and at least you're in the ballpark of rationality. (It wouldn't explain why the cheating didn't help in 2018 and 2019 but so be it.)

He had one surprisingly good season. Maybe that was cheating but there's no way you can get that from the numbers. Josh Bell had a career 110 OPS+ coming into this season and just put up a 143 over a full season -- cheater? His first half OPS was 1024 but then it was 780 -- the evidence is piling up. Gregory Polanco had a 94 OPS+ from 22-25 then put up a 128 in 2018 -- filthy cheater. It had to be cheating because he was back to a 90 this year. Cervelli put up a 90 OPS+ from 22-27 in limited time, then 116 over 1+ seasons, then back to 90 for two years, then back to 123 in 2018, then 71 last year. What nefarious on/off machinations could explain such things? Pirates can't even cheat well.

One thing we can say for sure is that Chris Truby should have read his contract with the devil more closely.
   26. Adam Starblind Posted: December 05, 2019 at 07:29 PM (#5906097)
All of this aside, why the f would they give of prospects of any sort for Juan Lagares 2.0? This is the type of dude you sign for $3 M at the end of the offseason, not someone you give up prospects of any grade for.


These were not prospects of any grade.
   27. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 05, 2019 at 07:53 PM (#5906101)
A career 79 OPS+ and a 83 seasonal OPS+ are in no way substantially different which anybody with even a teeny knowledge of baseball or statistics knows perfecyly well -- including you Vlad.


Those three above-average seasons are themselves included in that average. The average is as high as it is in large part because those three seasons and the 93 OPS+ from them constitute 48% of the PA in the sample used to derive that career average. So if you’re talking about them as a departure from his established, prior baseline, the gap is much larger than that.

You are accusing a guy of cheating because of 118 terrible PA he had at the age of 22.


No, it’s a known fact at this point that the all of the Astros batters of those years, including Marisnick, were cheating. I’m just raising the question as to whether the benefit from this already-established cheating might have been substantial enough to lead to a significant performance drop going forward, now that his team won’t be stealing signs for him anymore. And for some reason, you’re pushing back against that, even though his post-cheating performance was substantially better than both his pre-cheating performance and the projections issued immediately before the cheating started (e.g. his 2017 ZiPS forecast, which called for a .230/.275/.369 batting line).

So take his entire career and there's nothing fishy about a small sample of 119 OPS+ and his last two seasons show amazing consistency, not something the least bit out of the ordinary.


Saying that is like saying that a guy who puts up a .850 OPS for two months and a .700 OPS for four more “showed amazing consistency” and is obviously a true-talent .700 OPS hitter. No, he isn’t. He’s more likely to be around a true-talent .750, who just happened to have some normal month-to-month variance in a particular distribution. I’m basing the split that I’m using on a specific, discrete, documented event (the day the Astros are known to have started cheating), without regard for which numbers happen to fall on which side of it. You’re carving up an already-small sample into arbitrary sub-tranches and then ignoring the ones that you don’t like. Which is just cherry-picking with extra steps.

No offense Vlad but referring to seasons of 83 OPS+ and 80 OPS+ as above-average for a 79 career OPS+ hitter is among the more numerically ignorant things somebody has said here in a long time. All you had to do was say "we know they cheated in 2017 and his 2017 really stands out" and at least you're in the ballpark of rationality. (It wouldn't explain why the cheating didn't help in 2018 and 2019 but so be it.)


Speaking of “numerically ignorant”... good lord.

The numbers being lower in 2018 and 2019 than they were in 2017 doesn’t mean that he wasn’t getting any benefit in those seasons. That’s like saying that a hitter didn’t get any benefit from playing in a hitter’s park because he happened to have extremely strong home/road splits in one season and relatively pedestrian ones in two others. We’re talking about annual samples of ~270 PA. Variance is going to be substantial. Which is why I’m combining like quantities to make a sample that’s large enough to be useful, and why I’m so boggled that you seem determined to chuck out 2014 and 2016 and 2017 like they never happened.

In the three years prior to the Astros’ cheating (which don’t even include the “118 terrible PA he had at the age of 22” that you keep ######## about), Marisnick put up a 73 OPS+ in 920 ML PA. In the three years after the Astros started cheating, Marisnick put up a 93 OPS+ in 812 PA. That’s a big increase. Some of it is probably the result of normal development due to age. All of it? I’m not convinced. But #### me for asking the question, I guess.

He had one surprisingly good season. Maybe that was cheating but there's no way you can get that from the numbers. Josh Bell had a career 110 OPS+ coming into this season and just put up a 143 over a full season -- cheater? His first half OPS was 1024 but then it was 780 -- the evidence is piling up. Gregory Polanco had a 94 OPS+ from 22-25 then put up a 128 in 2018 -- filthy cheater. It had to be cheating because he was back to a 90 this year. Cervelli put up a 90 OPS+ from 22-27 in limited time, then 116 over 1+ seasons, then back to 90 for two years, then back to 123 in 2018, then 71 last year. What nefarious on/off machinations could explain such things? Pirates can't even cheat well.


I think this is the most bizarre part, to me. It’s like you don’t know that there are literally thousands of hours of publicly available video footage of the Astros banging on trash cans to signal pitches, starting on Opening Day in 2017. Like you think that there’s some kind of doubt that they actually did it.
   28. Lassus Posted: December 05, 2019 at 08:59 PM (#5906109)
While I agree with Vlad on most things, it is his posts in this thread that I've felt are the rending-of-garments responses to the sign-stealing the Astros committed. (Not that he's the only one, certainly.)
   29. PreservedFish Posted: December 05, 2019 at 09:51 PM (#5906121)
From 2014-2016, Marisnick averaged -10 batting runs per 300 PAs.
From 2017-2019, Marisnick averaged -3 batting runs per 300 PAs.

He hit his prime in these years. And may also have been increasingly platooned.

Marisnick likely had about 150 PAs per year at home where he would benefit from the cheating. So even if the cheating had a huge effect - let's say it could turn a naturally +0 hitter (say Jason Heyward, Amed Rosario, David Fletcher) into a +20 hitter (that's Bryce Harper, Michael Conforto, Gleyber Torres territory), which would have produced something like 9 extra wins for the Astros per year - Marisnick himself would only reap a +5 bonus per year to his totals. Even though I think the cheating was likely significant, it was probably less effective than this. So let's call it a +3 for Marisnick per year.

So as far as the Mets are concerned, perhaps Marisnick isn't really a -3 hitter in his customary partial season. Perhaps, without the cheating, he's a -6. That's probably about the scale of the effect that we're talking about, 3ish runs.
   30. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: December 05, 2019 at 11:56 PM (#5906147)
Does these mean that the Mets are planning to go with Nimmo/Marisnick platoon in centerfield?
   31. depletion Posted: December 06, 2019 at 06:40 AM (#5906159)
Counterexample :
J.D. Davis
   32. formerly dp Posted: December 06, 2019 at 07:29 AM (#5906160)
Does these mean that the Mets are planning to go with Nimmo/Marisnick platoon in centerfield?
Please no.
   33. PreservedFish Posted: December 06, 2019 at 08:41 AM (#5906163)
Marisnick + Pillar could be a reasonable combo.
   34. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 06, 2019 at 10:00 AM (#5906184)
What's wrong with Nimmo? He had a bad year last year but he had injury troubles and still managed to put up a .375 OBP and 112 OPS+. He's one year removed from a 148 OPS+.
   35. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 06, 2019 at 10:12 AM (#5906186)
I like Nimmo! Not really in center though, where he’s always been stretched.
That said, I’d be a lot more interested in getting him PT than some other options, in CF or otherwise.
   36. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2019 at 10:18 AM (#5906194)
I think Marisnick/Nimmo in CF makes a ton of sense, with Nimmo playing LF when not in CF. Conforto takes RF, and McNeil plays LF when Nimmo's in CF.

The problem is J.D. Davis and and Dom Smith. The bats are real interesting, but where do you play them?
   37. J in the Slope Posted: December 06, 2019 at 10:22 AM (#5906196)
I like Nimmo! Not really in center though, where he’s always been stretched.


If you're giving Marisnick meaningful playing time in Center then someone has to sit. Is he a better player than Conforto, Nimmo, McNeil, or JD Davis? Because one of those guys is sitting if Marisnick is playing, as is Dom Smith. Marisnick's a better defender than all of them, but doesn't have extreme platoon splits. There are still too many corner guys on this team (and one expensive 2b that should never have been traded for). That said, injuries happen. And Cespedes may happen (but probably not).
   38. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2019 at 10:28 AM (#5906201)
If you're giving Marisnick meaningful playing time in Center then someone has to sit. Is he a better player than Conforto, Nimmo, McNeil, or JD Davis?

He's better than JD Davis in the Mets OF. Marisnick is a +8 CF for his career. Nimmo is -10 in CF, and +2 in the corners. JD Davis is -14 in LF.

So, Marisnick/Nimmo is 35 runs better defensively than Nimmo/Davis. I seriously doubt Davis is 35 runs better with the bat than Marisnick.

   39. Panik on the streets of Flushing! (Trout! Trout!) Posted: December 06, 2019 at 10:33 AM (#5906205)
The problem is J.D. Davis and and Dom Smith. The bats are real interesting, but where do you play them?


I think one of them needs to be traded unfortunately. Probably Dom even though I like him a lot.
   40. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2019 at 10:55 AM (#5906219)
I think one of them needs to be traded unfortunately. Probably Dom even though I like him a lot.

Both of them probably should be traded. They both seem to be 1B, and the Mets are kind set there.
   41. Buck Coats Posted: December 06, 2019 at 11:29 AM (#5906238)
I think Marisnick/Nimmo in CF makes a ton of sense, with Nimmo playing LF when not in CF. Conforto takes RF, and McNeil plays LF when Nimmo's in CF.

The problem is J.D. Davis and and Dom Smith. The bats are real interesting, but where do you play them?


Well if you play McNeil at 3B, you can play one of JD or Dom in LF when Nimmo's in CF. You essentially platoon Marisnick with one of those guys (presumably Dom, since he's a lefty)

Or just platoon Marisnick/Nimmo in CF and JD/Dom in LF.
   42. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2019 at 11:41 AM (#5906247)
Well if you play McNeil at 3B, you can play one of JD or Dom in LF when Nimmo's in CF. You essentially platoon Marisnick with one of those guys (presumably Dom, since he's a lefty)

Or just platoon Marisnick/Nimmo in CF and JD/Dom in LF.


Nimmo has a 127 career OPS+ and is by far a better defender than Davis or Smith. Why would you want him sitting in favor of one of them?

A Davis/Smith left field platoon would be a defensive disaster.
   43. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 06, 2019 at 12:16 PM (#5906265)
Dom is on the block, per reports, right?

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