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Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Mets have a stud in Pete Alonso, but will they keep him?

If he continues hitting home runs at the pace he did in his 2019 NL Rookie of the Year season, Pete Alonso will pass Darryl Strawberry for most home runs by a New York Met sometime in 2023.

If he continues to rack up RBI the way he did last season, he will catch David Wright, the Mets’ all-time leader with 970, sometime in 2026. Even scoring 103 runs as he did in 2019, it would take Alonso until 2028 to equal Wright’s franchise record of 946. And he would need all the way to 2030 to reach Wright’s mark of 1,777 hits in a Mets uniform.

Assuming continued good health and comparable production, it is clear that Alonso could turn out to be the greatest hitter this franchise has ever had, which says nearly as much about the Mets, a historically pitching-oriented organization, as it does about their sensational 24-year-old first baseman. Clearly, he is the most exciting rookie to wear the blue and orange since the glory days of Strawberry and Dwight Gooden, who won back-to-back Rookie of the Year Awards in 1983 and 1984.

As expected, Alonso won in a landslide, getting 29 of a possible 30 first-place votes; the one holdout voted for Mike Soroka, the Atlanta Braves 22-year-old stud right-hander.

This fits with what we were noting a week or so ago, but still of interest to see it stated so directly.

 

QLE Posted: November 12, 2019 at 12:20 AM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets being mets, pete alonso

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: November 12, 2019 at 12:59 AM (#5900515)
What's the statute of limitations on the Madoff excuse?
   2. Howie Menckel Posted: November 12, 2019 at 01:33 AM (#5900520)
"he is the most exciting rookie to wear the blue and orange since the glory days of Strawberry and Dwight Gooden"

apparently deGrom's 2014 win didn't interest anyone
   3. depletion Posted: November 12, 2019 at 08:03 AM (#5900526)
Dwight Gooden was more exciting than all the other names, and it isn’t particularly close.
   4. Rally Posted: November 12, 2019 at 08:19 AM (#5900529)
apparently deGrom's 2014 win didn't interest anyone


Sure, he was good, and he won the ROY. But 140 innings doesn't remotely compare to leading the league in HR as a rookie, or striking out 276 batters as a 19 year old.

If DeGrom had his Cy Young season (seasons?) as a rookie, then he might have a case.
   5. Lassus Posted: November 12, 2019 at 09:50 AM (#5900542)
And in fairness, a 26-year-old rookie pitcher is a bit seasoned. The excitement factor is somewhat lessened for that age of rookie.
   6. PreservedFish Posted: November 12, 2019 at 10:03 AM (#5900545)
Alonso was far more exciting than DeGrom. DeGrom came out of nowhere, zero hype, and even at the end of the season nobody knew if he'd end up being some random 4th starter guy.

Off the top of my head I'd name Jose Reyes as the last most exciting rookie before Alonso. Reyes was a better asset at the time, too - an elite prospect, age 20, putting up 2+ WAR in his first half season. But Alonso was the toast of the city for 6 months, so if we're just talking about excitement he's really on another level.
   7. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 12, 2019 at 10:06 AM (#5900547)
The guy just finished his rookie season. Can we hold off on "but he may leave!!!" for a few years?
   8. "RMc", the superbatsman Posted: November 12, 2019 at 10:20 AM (#5900554)
Naah. Alonso needs to go to a big-market team.
   9. caspian88 Posted: November 12, 2019 at 10:44 AM (#5900564)
He could play with Betts, Bryant, and Lindor.
   10. Rally Posted: November 12, 2019 at 10:52 AM (#5900567)
I'd also go with Thor and Wright as for excitement. Neither had a full season as a rookie but were much younger than DeGrom. Both had the look of "this guy is going to be a great player" and that excitement was built up through their ascent to the majors. DeGrom is a great player who nobody saw coming. Old for a rookie, never too high on the prospect lists, and pitched a lot better in the big leagues than he did in the minors.

Interesting fact about DeGrom: He never struck out a batter per inning in ANY minor league season. Highest was 7.8 in A ball, 2012. 96 whiffs in 111 innings.

In the majors he's pitched 6 years and only once failed to strike out more than a batter per inning. Even that year, at 8.7, he was much better than his best minor league season.
   11. manchestermets Posted: November 12, 2019 at 11:08 AM (#5900572)
TFA does a great job of ignoring the extensions that deGrom and Wright got, who were slightly bigger deals than Daniel Murphy. It would have been nice to have Murphy's 2016, but nobody's exactly looking back at him now as the one who got away.
   12. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: November 12, 2019 at 11:26 AM (#5900576)
It would have been nice to have Murphy's 2016, but nobody's exactly looking back at him now as the one who got away.


I have hunch Murphy will end up back in Queens before his career is through. He has the look of one of those guys you just..."know" will end up back here, a la Seaver, Rusty, Kingman & Reyes. (Keep your eye on Wilmer Flores & Lucas Duda, too). The Mets love to do siht like that.
   13. DanG Posted: November 12, 2019 at 11:38 AM (#5900579)
24-year-old first basemen with similar WAR and OPS+ as Alonso, since 1900:

Player        WAROPSYear  Tm
George Sisler  5.8  161 1917 SLB H
Kent Hrbek     5.6  145 1984 MIN
Anthony Rizzo  5.2  152 2014 CHC
John Mayberry  5.2  146 1973 KCR
Pete Alonso    5.0  148 2019 NYM
Ed Konetchy    5.0  144 1910 STL
Elbie Fletcher 4.9  137 1940 PIT
Jeff Bagwell   4.7  135 1992 HOU H
Mark Teixeira  4.6  131 2004 TEX
Eddie Murray   4.5  138 1980 BAL H
Ed Bouchee     4.3  135 1957 PHI 
   14. Lassus Posted: November 12, 2019 at 11:43 AM (#5900581)
Lucas Duda, too

FUCK NO
   15. bbmck Posted: November 12, 2019 at 02:53 PM (#5900606)
55 players put up 5+ position player WAR in their first or second season in the expansion era to hedge against late season call ups. Also Kris Bryant and Albert Pujols put up 5+ WAR in both seasons. 11 of the 57 played for 2+ franchises in their first five MLB seasons:

Billy Grabarkewitz: 6.5 WAR in his 2nd season, 5.8 career WAR. Traded by the Los Angeles Dodgers with Frank Robinson, Bill Singer, Mike Strahler and Bobby Valentine to the California Angels for Ken McMullen and Andy Messersmith before his 5th season. Traded by the California Angels with players to be named later to the Philadelphia Phillies for a player to be named later during his 5th season. The Philadelphia Phillies sent Denny Doyle (December 6, 1973) to the California Angels to complete the trade. The California Angels sent Aurelio Monteagudo (December 6, 1973) and Chris Coletta (December 6, 1973) to the Philadelphia Phillies to complete the trade.

Ender Inciarte: 5.2 WAR his 2nd season, 19.2 career WAR so far. Traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks with Aaron Blair and Dansby Swanson to the Atlanta Braves for Shelby Miller and Gabe Speier after his 2nd season.

Andrelton Simmons: 7 WAR his 2nd season, 36.9 career WAR so far. Traded by the Atlanta Braves with Jose Briceno to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for Erick Aybar, Chris Ellis, Sean Newcomb and cash after his 4th season.

Austin Jackson: 5.1 WAR his 1st season, 18.8 WAR his first 4 seasons, 22.1 career WAR (so far). During his 5th season: Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Detroit Tigers to the Seattle Mariners. The Detroit Tigers sent Willy Adames and Drew Smyly to the Tampa Bay Rays. The Tampa Bay Rays sent David Price to the Detroit Tigers. The Seattle Mariners sent Nick Franklin to the Tampa Bay Rays.

Josh Hamilton: Traded by the Cincinnati Reds to the Texas Rangers for Danny Herrera and Edinson Volquez after his 90 game and 2.5 WAR debut season.

David Eckstein: 4 years and 13.1 WAR and then left Anaheim as free agent.

Kenny Lofton: Traded by the Houston Astros with Dave Rohde to the Cleveland Indians for Willie Blair and Ed Taubensee after his 20 game and 0 WAR debut season.

Kevin McReynolds: 5.4 WAR his 2nd season, 30.1 career WAR. Traded by the San Diego Padres with Adam Ging (minors) and Gene Walter to the New York Mets for Kevin Armstrong (minors), Kevin Brown (minors), Shawn Abner, Stan Jefferson and Kevin Mitchell after his 4th season.

Tom Brunansky: Traded by the California Angels with Mike Walters and $400,000 to the Minnesota Twins for Doug Corbett and Rob Wilfong after his 11 game and 0.5 WAR debut season.

Willie Randolph: Traded by the Pittsburgh Pirates with Ken Brett and Dock Ellis to the New York Yankees for Doc Medich after his 30 game and -0.3 WAR debut season.

Jimmie Hall: 5.4 WAR his 1st season, 13.7 WAR his first 3 seasons, 13.8 career WAR. Traded by the Minnesota Twins with Pete Cimino and Don Mincher to the California Angels for a player to be named later and Dean Chance after his 4th season. The California Angels sent Jackie Hernandez (April 10, 1967) to the Minnesota Twins to complete the trade.

So other than two blockbuster trades by the Braves during the 2015-16 off-season it's a pretty big drop to trading McReynolds when he's still pretty good and Josh Hamilton after a pretty impressive half season and plenty of known off-field issues. History suggests if Pete Alonso is traded by 2023 it's because he isn't playing well and some team thinks a change of scenery will get him back to his rookie production or some team has a really aggressive off-season plan and plenty of assets.
   16. Hank Gillette Posted: November 12, 2019 at 06:11 PM (#5900674)
Tied for 16th best season, by WAR, for a 24-year-old first baseman since 1901.

                                                                                
Rk           Player WAR/pos OPS+ Year Age  Tm   G  PA   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS   Pos
1        Lou Gehrig    11.8  220 1927  24 NYY 155 717 .373 .474 .765 1.240    *3
2       Jimmie Foxx    10.5  207 1932  24 PHA 154 702 .364 .469 .749 1.218   *35
3     Albert Pujols     8.5  173 2004  24 STL 154 692 .331 .415 .657 1.072 *3/DH
4       John Olerud     7.8  186 1993  24 TOR 158 679 .363 .473 .599 1.072 *3D/H
5    Hank Greenberg     7.7  170 1935  24 DET 152 710 .328 .411 .628 1.039    *3
6      Frank Thomas     7.0  174 1992  24 CHW 160 711 .323 .439 .536  .975 *3/DH
7        Will Clark     6.7  160 1988  24 SFG 162 689 .282 .386 .508  .894  *3/H
8       Johnny Mize     6.6  173 1937  24 STL 145 621 .364 .427 .595 1.021  *3/H
9     Don Mattingly     6.5  156 1985  24 NYY 159 727 .324 .371 .567  .939    *3
10     Fred McGriff     6.2  157 1988  24 TOR 154 623 .282 .376 .552  .928  *3/H
11    George Sisler     5.8  161 1917  24 SLB 135 587 .353 .390 .453  .843  *3/4
12       Kent Hrbek     5.6  145 1984  24 MIN 149 635 .311 .383 .522  .906 *3/HD
13     Daric Barton     5.5  120 2010  24 OAK 159 686 .273 .393 .405  .798  *3/H
14    Anthony Rizzo     5.2  152 2014  24 CHC 140 616 .286 .386 .527  .913    *3
15    John Mayberry     5.2  146 1973  24 KCR 152 638 .278 .417 .478  .895 *3/HD
16      Pete Alonso     5.0  148 2019  24 NYM 161 693 .260 .358 .583  .941 *3/HD
17      Ed Konetchy     5.0  144 1910  24 STL 144 614 .302 .397 .425  .822  *3/1


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/12/2019.
   17. PreservedFish Posted: November 12, 2019 at 07:57 PM (#5900689)
Daric Barton sighting!
   18. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: November 13, 2019 at 01:08 AM (#5900739)
They’ll probably keep him for at least the first six years. Beyond that, Alonso is at least partly in control of where he plays.

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