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Tuesday, May 04, 2021

Mets’ Jacob deGrom scratched from start with right lat inflammation, avoids injured list

The New York Mets will not have right-handed starter Jacob deGrom toeing the rubber for them when they continue their four-game series on Tuesday against the St. Louis Cardinals. Rather, the Mets scratched deGrom hours before first pitch because of “right side tightness,” according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Reliever Miguel Castro is expected to open the game for the Mets. 

The Mets later announced an MRI revealed inflammation in deGrom’s right lat, and he will not throw the next few days. He will not be placed on the injured list, however.

Through deGrom’s first five starts this season, he had been in the midst of a historic run. He’d accumulated a 0.51 ERA (758 ERA+) and a 14.75 strikeout-to-walk ratio while averaging seven innings per outing.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 04, 2021 at 11:49 PM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: jacob degrom

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   1. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: May 05, 2021 at 06:00 PM (#6017154)
deGrom turns 33 next month, is 72-53 lifetime (I know about the extraordinary lack of run support, his greatest the last several years, etc.), and is trying to avoid the injured list (hopefully a minor thing).

He is going to be the ultimate test, at this rate, of how much Hall of Fame voters are willing to change the standards for induction. Forget Koufax or Dizzy Dean (the starters in the HOF with the fewest wins); he needs to go 67-25 just to match Johan Santana! King Felix was amazing at his peak (probably 2009-2014), but didn't have enough of a career after that peak, and ended up with only 169 wins...but that's 97 more than deGrom has as of now.

deGrom is having a run unlike anybody, perhaps, since Pedro, right? But he started late, has had terrible luck with offensive support, and is playing at a time when wins from starting pitchers are more scarce than ever. What does he have to do from here on in to seriously get into the HOF discussion? Can he get in with, like, 125 wins? Because that is 53 wins from where he is now, and at this rate, he won't hit that number until probably late 2024 - when he is 36 years old.

   2. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: May 05, 2021 at 06:03 PM (#6017155)
What does he have to do from here on in to seriously get into the HOF discussion?
Learn a knuckleball and pitch until he's 48.
   3. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 05, 2021 at 06:20 PM (#6017161)
What does he have to do from here on in to seriously get into the HOF discussion?
I think he has to do quite a bit. Not only did deGrom start late (age 26), but he only has 3 seasons pitching 200 innings, and then only barely, with 201, 204 & 217. He’s already in his age-33 season, so some decline may soon appear. The standards may be evolving, and deGrom might be difficult to compare to anyone, but my guess is he’ll need to have another 3-5 seasons as a serious Cy Young contender to become a viable Hall of Fame candidate. Even then, some voters might find him short on wins & innings. Could be an interesting discussion.
   4. Rally Posted: May 05, 2021 at 06:28 PM (#6017166)
I don’t know why deGrom will need a knuckler. At the rate he’s going, he’ll be throwing 115 mph when he’s 48.
   5. Lassus Posted: May 05, 2021 at 07:44 PM (#6017187)
DeGrom HOF talk seems very stupid, to me.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: May 05, 2021 at 08:27 PM (#6017195)
Winning a 3rd CYA will pretty much seal the deal. He probably needs to reach 2000 innings but barring a major injury (obviously a real risk), that's going to happen. Possibly he needs to get to 150 wins which would take a good bit longer probably. We're likely talking another 10+ years before he's even eligible so there will have been even more change in the voters towards the nerds.

It's always possible the voters won't change enough or the stodgy old-timers keep holding on. But they'll have no choice but to drop existing standards on career innings and wins and shift to a peak/dominance perspective or they'll never elect a starter who debuted after 2005. Halladay is the current standard here. He did make it to 2700 innings and 200 wins both of which are likely to blow deGrom's career totals out of the water. But he's in the HoF for his run of 2200 IP, 148 ERA+ with 2 CYAs, 2 2nds, a 3rd and some 5ths. He was just awesome for 10 years.

DeGrom of course has two CYA and one 3rd and, if he finishes the season, seems well on his way to at least another top 3 finish. And of course Halladay was a 1st ballot guy which suggests deGrom may not need to be that good even after adjusting for current usage.

Or if you want the old-school argument, nobody can possibly argue that deGrom doesn't feel like a HoFer.

OK, needs to be 2009, not 2005 (Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer) Among pitchers debuted 2009 or later, deGrom (2014) is already 2nd in WAR to Sale (2010). Kluber (2 years older) is third, Bumgarner (2 younger) and Strasburg (1 younger) are tied for 4th. The serious challenger here is Cole who is 3 years younger and 11 WAR behind deGrom (but Cole has 100 more IP). I don't see any particularly serious candidates currently under 30 (Nola, Marquez, Severino, Snell?) Bauer is only 30, has an outside shot at 3000 IP and may have started a deGrom style run.

So barring a big jump in starter usage, if deGrom isn't a serious HoF candidate for this generation then this generation doesn't have any HoF starters and it's not too likely any future generations will either. It strikes me as much more likely that the BBWAA will continue to elect the best of each generation. You never know, they did skip the 80s guys but I think for different reasons (and of course Morris eventually made it).
   7. cardsfanboy Posted: May 05, 2021 at 08:35 PM (#6017197)
Winning a 3rd CYA will pretty much seal the deal. He probably needs to reach 2000 innings but barring a major injury (obviously a real risk), that's going to happen. Possibly he needs to get to 150 wins which would take a good bit longer probably. We're likely talking another 10+ years before he's even eligible so there will have been even more change in the voters towards the nerds.


Just comparing him to Santana and it's a joke of a discussion to be honest. Two Cy's, two 3rd place finishes and a fifth place finishes all done before he was 33 years old, should obliterate Degrom in this discussion. And I know the voters don't look at it that way, and you don't penalize because of poor voting in the past etc... but DeGrom needs to pitch another two seasons at his level to even reach what Santana did.

And it's not a knock against Degrom, who has never had a bad season in his career, it's just to point out that there is some magical thing between two cy youngs and three... Do I honestly think DeGrom is on a hof path, yes. Even at his age, as long as he doesn't lose a year, he should easily past the 50 war mark that is necessary for a 3 cy young pitcher, no need for him to have an actual career.
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 05, 2021 at 09:27 PM (#6017211)
DeGrom HOF talk seems very stupid, to me.

I agree. He's not within 100 miles right now. 1200 IP at 33. No way. Dizzy Dean threw almost 2000 IP, Koufax >2300.

Why can't we just enjoy a great pitcher w/o dragging the HoF into it?
   9. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: May 05, 2021 at 10:07 PM (#6017220)
So barring a big jump in starter usage, if deGrom isn't a serious HoF candidate for this generation then this generation doesn't have any HoF starters and it's not too likely any future generations will either. It strikes me as much more likely that the BBWAA will continue to elect the best of each generation. You never know, they did skip the 80s guys but I think for different reasons (and of course Morris eventually made it).
It is hard to take this argument seriously since deGrom and Kershaw are the same age. deGrom has a long way to go because he got a late start and, at least for the moment, his peak isn’t peaky enough.
   10. Booey Posted: May 05, 2021 at 10:08 PM (#6017221)
Just comparing him to Santana and it's a joke of a discussion to be honest. Two Cy's, two 3rd place finishes and a fifth place finishes all done before he was 33 years old, should obliterate Degrom in this discussion. And I know the voters don't look at it that way, and you don't penalize because of poor voting in the past etc... but DeGrom needs to pitch another two seasons at his level to even reach what Santana did.


The difference is, Santana (debuted in 2000) pitched at a time when HOF hopefuls were still racking up 200+ wins and 3000+ innings (well over, in some cases), so his career totals look awfully weak in comparison. His top contemporaries blow his counting stats out of the water.

Within 5 years of his debut date in either direction, you had/have:

Pettitte (1995) - 256 wins, 3316 innings
Colon (1997) - 247 wins, 3461 lbs...er, innings
Halladay (1998) - 203 wins, 2749 innings (as Walt mentioned, even a short career, prime candidate crushes Johan in both categories)
Hudson (1999) - 222 wins, 3126 innings
Santana (2000) - 139 wins, 2025 innings
Buehrle (2000) - 214 wins, 3283 innings
Sabathia (2001) - 251 wins, 3577 innings
Greinke (2004) - 210 wins, 2979 innings (age 37)
Verlander (2005) - 226 wins, 2988 innings (age 38)

Plus Kershaw and Scherzer (both debuted in 2008), who came later but have already easily surpassed Santana.

deGrom won't be compared to contemporaries with 220-250 wins and 3000+ innings...because there won't be any. He'll be judged against pitchers with comparably few wins and innings but with much lower peaks.

Why can't we just enjoy a great pitcher w/o dragging the HoF into it?


Why can't we do both? There's no reason it has to be one or the other.
   11. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: May 06, 2021 at 09:45 AM (#6017274)
What does he have to do from here on in to seriously get into the HOF discussion?


Just convert to a closer and he's all good!
   12. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: May 09, 2021 at 05:03 PM (#6017944)
Well, after skipping a start, he left Sunday's (May 9th) start after five innings due to tightness on his right side (right lat?). He got the win (5 IP, 1 ER), and even went 1-for-2 at the plate...but he's probably going to miss some time, and he'll (hopefully) pitch again later in May with all of....a 3-2 record to go with an ERA of 0.68. It is a bummer...
   13. Lowry Seasoning Salt Posted: May 09, 2021 at 08:20 PM (#6017962)
Why can't we do both [discuss a player's greatness and his Hall candidacy]? There's no reason it has to be one or the other.


This thread is a demonstration of why it can't be both. The first comment brings up deGrom's future Hall case and the focus remains there.
   14. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 09, 2021 at 08:55 PM (#6017963)
DeGrom headed for another MRI. Maybe a real hospital this time, not Dollar MRI?
   15. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 10, 2021 at 08:22 AM (#6017988)
He's going to retire and become an exterminator. Sounds like the Mets have a rodent problem.
   16. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: May 10, 2021 at 10:04 AM (#6018003)
tightness on his right side (right lat?).


speculation is that this tightness is lower down in his back, and probably came from overcompensating due to the lat injury. certainly sounds reasonable to me.

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