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Sunday, November 28, 2021

Mets pushing hard for Max Scherzer with decision expected soon

The Max Scherzer sweepstakes is heating up, and the Mets are in the thick of it.

With the three-time Cy Young Award winner expected to make his free-agent decision by Monday, the Mets were pushing hard for Scherzer as of Sunday night and believed they had a shot at landing him, The Post’s Joel Sherman reported.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 28, 2021 at 11:16 PM | 46 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: max scherzer, mets

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   1. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 28, 2021 at 11:24 PM (#6055091)
Average annual value is reported as more than $40M, with rumors of a 3-year deal, according to MLB Trade Rumors.
   2. Howie Menckel Posted: November 28, 2021 at 11:55 PM (#6055095)
but the Mets have an obnoxious owner and don't have a manager - isn't that more important to free agents than just money?
   3. The Duke Posted: November 29, 2021 at 12:10 AM (#6055097)
4/160 is latest rumor. How crazy would that be ?
   4. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 29, 2021 at 01:36 AM (#6055104)
It’s also being reported (rumored?) that Corey Seeger will sign somewhere on Monday, as the final piece in the Scott Boras Big-3 to get a contract before the likely upcoming lockout.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: November 29, 2021 at 02:26 AM (#6055106)
I look forward to him signing with another team followed by Cohen's tweet about betrayal.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: November 29, 2021 at 02:42 AM (#6055108)
Expansion era: age 33-36 by ERA+, then WAR ages 37-40

Unit 171, 31 WAR
K Brown 156, 6
Scherzer 156, TBD
Verlander 152, 0 (3 years to go)
Clemens 151, 17
Maddux 145, 11
Schilling 143, 18
Cone 142, 1

Obviously 31 WAR would be magnifique; 17-18 WAR (Clemens/Schilling) for $160 would be a bit pricey but not a big deal. The rest, not very promising. FWIW, Dennis Martinez of all people had 18 WAR; Smoltz had 18; Kenny Rogers, Steve Carlton, David Wells, Jamie Moyer, Tom Glavine and Tommy John (a brigade of lefties) were in the range of 13-15. But surely 3/$120 plus a 1/$40 vesting option can get it done right?

In OOTP when I GM'd the Cubs, I did these sorts of deals all the time. Well, not 4/$160 but whatever the OOTP equivalent was of 1/$50 or 2/$80 ... find the great old FA pitcher on the market, make a ridiculous but short AAV offer, win another WS, rinse, repeat. Told ya I shoulda been the Mets' GM.


   7. Adam Starblind Posted: November 29, 2021 at 07:51 AM (#6055113)
Hard to pick comps for Scherzer. Johnson and Clemens aren’t comps for anyone. He’s been better than most of the rest.
   8. bunyon Posted: November 29, 2021 at 09:22 AM (#6055120)
Scherzer is a hard call. The Mets need pitching (who doesn't?) and he'd be a great addition. And if they want him, it costs what it costs.

But, man, that much money on an old pitcher (sure, he's been great, but all pitchers are risks and mileage doesn't reduce that).



Glad it's not my job to make that call.
   9. McCoy Posted: November 29, 2021 at 10:19 AM (#6055126)
Walt beat me to it but I was gonna say Max is likely to fall off a cliff at some point and obviously he'll do it in the next 4 years. I would guess the Mets are hoping for two more great years, an ok year, and then anything in the 4th year is just gravy.
   10. JJ1986 Posted: November 29, 2021 at 10:32 AM (#6055129)
I'm lukewarm on a lot of the Mets moves, but all in on this.
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 29, 2021 at 10:49 AM (#6055135)
@Joelsherman1
Heard the #Mets offer to Scherzer is in the 3-yr, $129M range — or about $43M on average per season
   12. McCoy Posted: November 29, 2021 at 10:56 AM (#6055136)
So probably 3 yr with a 4th year option/buy out.
   13. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 29, 2021 at 11:06 AM (#6055138)
Max is likely to fall off a cliff at some point and obviously he'll do it in the next 4 years.

Why is that obvious? Clemens, Schilling, Maddux, Johnson, Glavine, and Smoltz (hell even Andy Pettitte) made it to 40 (or beyond) before they retired or "fell off a cliff".
   14. jingoist Posted: November 29, 2021 at 11:09 AM (#6055139)
Should the Mets sign Max, he will have 3 or 4 potential starts against his old employer, the Nationals.
I will look forward to Soto’s at bats against Max should the match-up occur.
   15. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: November 29, 2021 at 11:27 AM (#6055145)
Hard to pick comps for Scherzer. Johnson and Clemens aren’t comps for anyone. He’s been better than most of the rest.


I get what you mean, but through age 36 Scherzer is actually right at Johnson's level - 2536.2 IP of 134 ERA+ pitching with no signs of slowing down, vs Johnson's 2498.2 IP at 138 ERA+.
   16. The Duke Posted: November 29, 2021 at 12:22 PM (#6055154)
3/140 now with Mets closing in
   17. JJ1986 Posted: November 29, 2021 at 12:25 PM (#6055156)
This new Mets front office leaks more than any other in history. We've had 15 updates on this.
   18. Howie Menckel Posted: November 29, 2021 at 12:36 PM (#6055157)
Free agent right-handed starter Max Scherzer is finalizing a three-year, $130 million deal with the New York Mets, CBS Sports HQ's Jim Bowden confirms. The deal will give Scherzer the largest average annual value of any MLB player at $43.3 million. The Dodgers (who traded for Scherzer at July's deadline), Giants and Angels were also rumored to be fighting for Scherzer's services, but it appears they were all outbid by the Mets.

"This new Mets front office leaks more than any other in history."

I don't recall a single rumor about them signing SMarte, Canha, or Escobar but admittedly I guess I could have missed them.
   19. The Duke Posted: November 29, 2021 at 12:38 PM (#6055158)
I wonder if this get Stroman to come back to NYM? That would start to look like a formidable rotation
   20. asinwreck Posted: November 29, 2021 at 01:13 PM (#6055162)
He can opt out after the second year. I hope the Mets mandated that he has to bring his dogs to Queens.
   21. DL from MN Posted: November 29, 2021 at 01:15 PM (#6055163)
That's a lot of money for an old pitcher with a 'dead arm'
   22. phredbird Posted: November 29, 2021 at 01:31 PM (#6055164)

i don't follow the mets. and i don't know how good scherzer is anymore.

but after all, it's a bit of a weak division, no? the mets + a good pitcher could catch atlanta as they are constituted now, yes?

also, a guy like scherzer sure looks like the kind of signing that the fans would just love.

   23. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 29, 2021 at 02:06 PM (#6055169)
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/32745735/sources-new-york-mets-max-scherzer-finalizing-3-year-deal

Star right-hander Max Scherzer and the New York Mets have agreed to a three-year, $130 million contract, sources familiar with the situation told ESPN's Jeff Passan.

Scherzer can opt out of the contract after the second season of the deal, the sources said.

The $43.33 million average annual salary of the deal sets a record, surpassing the $36 million New York Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole is averaging after signing a nine-year, $324 million contract in 2019.

Scherzer, 37, becomes the oldest player in MLB history to sign a $100 million contract, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Kevin Brown was 33 when he signed the first $100 million deal in MLB history in 1998.
   24. McCoy Posted: November 29, 2021 at 02:32 PM (#6055174)
Re 13 you listed several pitchers that most certainly were not elite pitchers duri.g their age 37 to 40 seasons.
   25. SoSH U at work Posted: November 29, 2021 at 02:58 PM (#6055178)

Re 13 you listed several pitchers that most certainly were not elite pitchers duri.g their age 37 to 40 seasons.


He was countering your suggestion that he'd "fall off a cliff." One can slide from the elite ranks without going full Robby Alomar.
   26. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 29, 2021 at 03:00 PM (#6055179)
Scherzer is still quite good, but at his age there is some likelihood that he misses a few starts with minor issues over the next 3 seasons, and that could be a best case scenario. So the Mets are paying a record breaking salary for a guy who might make 25-30 starts a season. Probably worth it if the Mets win it all, or maybe some near misses, but lots of risk. In any event, good to see an owner willing to invest in his team.
   27. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 29, 2021 at 03:17 PM (#6055182)
That's a lot of money for an old pitcher with a 'dead arm'
Maybe it's on the Bonilla Payment Schedule?
   28. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: November 29, 2021 at 03:58 PM (#6055185)
As a Met fan, this is good day as long as Cohen decides that he is going to continue to spend. Sure, there's going to be some dead money but it's not going to change Cohen's life. As long as Cohen continues to spend, this contract is fine.
   29. McCoy Posted: November 29, 2021 at 04:13 PM (#6055188)
Re 25 and it's possible that a metaphor shouldn't be considered a precise tool with a definition that is the same for everyone.
   30. Walt Davis Posted: November 29, 2021 at 04:26 PM (#6055193)
I hate cognitive dissonance. The fan in me wants to see what a top-form Scherzer and a healthy deGrom can do ... but it's the Mets.

Tough call: would you rather roll the dice on Scherzer at 3/$130 or Verlander at 2/$50. I think I'll take the latter (assuming a clear physical) even though the risk of getting nothing is much higher. $80 M can do a lot of good over 3 years. You could get Verlander and 5 years of Eduardo Rodriguez and still have enough ashtray money for a decent arb player. Or Verlander and 4 years of Marte (not that Scherzer's contract kept the Mets from getting Marte).
   31. The Duke Posted: November 29, 2021 at 04:32 PM (#6055195)
Maybe the Nats can rid themselves of Strausburg by sending him to Mets. They should let a rumor circulate that the Cardinals are about to buy him and the see if the Mets take the bait
   32. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 29, 2021 at 06:27 PM (#6055224)
Strasburg is under contract for another 5 years at $35M per season. I doubt there will be much interest until he demonstrates that his thoracic outlet surgery was a success.
   33. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 29, 2021 at 09:21 PM (#6055249)
Well, if deGrom has a good, healthy season in 2022, it is going to cost the Mets a hell of a lot to keep him now.
   34. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 29, 2021 at 09:30 PM (#6055255)
ZiPS provides a healthy dose of hard realism: 9.8 projected WAR. For $130 million.
   35. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 29, 2021 at 10:29 PM (#6055270)
ZiPS provides a healthy dose of hard realism: 9.8 projected WAR. For $130 million.

Is ZiPS adjusted for 2020's artificial playing time limitations? (Genuine question - it very well might be for all I know. But if not, that will suppress everyone's WAR projections for a couple years.)
   36. John Northey Posted: November 29, 2021 at 10:53 PM (#6055275)
On a $ per year basis it would've almost been cheaper to sign Robbie Ray ($23 per year) and Gausman ($22 mil) = $45 mil vs $43 for 'just' Scherzer. Does seem like a nutty deal to me. Ah well, not my money, nor my favorite teams money.
   37. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 29, 2021 at 11:03 PM (#6055281)
Is ZiPS adjusted for 2020's artificial playing time limitations? (Genuine question - it very well might be for all I know. But if not, that will suppress everyone's WAR projections for a couple years.)
I believe it is. I can't imagine Dan would leave such a glaring hole in the methodology. Will ask him.
   38. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: November 29, 2021 at 11:08 PM (#6055282)
ZiPS provides a healthy dose of hard realism

Zips isn't "real."
   39. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 29, 2021 at 11:13 PM (#6055283)
Seems like ZIPs is basically taking 2021 WAR and reducing it by 1 each year. Which is probably about right, statistically. But it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him beat that.
   40. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: November 30, 2021 at 12:01 AM (#6055288)
But it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him beat that.


Of course not, ZiPS is a median projection. A player beating their projection (or falling short of it) shouldn't be surprising at all.
   41. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 30, 2021 at 10:43 AM (#6055323)
Zips isn't "real."
It’s a reminder of what is most likely to happen, despite the exuberance in some quarters. Of course he might beat the odds, as Ziggy notes, but it’s just as likely that he puts up even fewer WAR.
   42. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 30, 2021 at 10:55 AM (#6055328)
It’s a reminder of what is most likely to happen, despite the exuberance in some quarters.

Zips seems pessimistic to me. Scherzer has been a 6+ WAR pitcher for NINE straight years. Starting him at 3.9 seems harsh.
   43. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 30, 2021 at 12:20 PM (#6055345)
As I said, despite the exuberance in some quarters. I get why a lot of people want to think the model will end up being wrong (in the negative direction) in this particular instance, but I haven't seen anything to suggest that's anything other than wishing and hoping. Of course it might be - but there's no reason to expect that at this point.
   44. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 30, 2021 at 12:28 PM (#6055352)
As I said, despite the exuberance in some quarters. I get why a lot of people want to think the model will end up being wrong (in the negative direction) in this particular instance, but I haven't seen anything to suggest that's anything other than wishing and hoping. Of course it might be - but there's no reason to expect that at this point.

Well, the model is based on the average player. I doubt there is a large enough sample size to model elite-pitcher aging between ages 35 and 40. If elite players age better than average, there could be a systematic bias that the model can't correct for.
   45. Lassus Posted: November 30, 2021 at 12:51 PM (#6055353)
I want to be hopeful.

/#IWANTTOBELIEVE
   46. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 30, 2021 at 02:03 PM (#6055367)
Is ZiPS adjusted for 2020's artificial playing time limitations?
Following up on this, Dan confirms that it is.

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