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Sunday, November 28, 2021
The Max Scherzer sweepstakes is heating up, and the Mets are in the thick of it.
With the three-time Cy Young Award winner expected to make his free-agent decision by Monday, the Mets were pushing hard for Scherzer as of Sunday night and believed they had a shot at landing him, The Post’s Joel Sherman reported.
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1. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 28, 2021 at 11:24 PM (#6055091)Unit 171, 31 WAR
K Brown 156, 6
Scherzer 156, TBD
Verlander 152, 0 (3 years to go)
Clemens 151, 17
Maddux 145, 11
Schilling 143, 18
Cone 142, 1
Obviously 31 WAR would be magnifique; 17-18 WAR (Clemens/Schilling) for $160 would be a bit pricey but not a big deal. The rest, not very promising. FWIW, Dennis Martinez of all people had 18 WAR; Smoltz had 18; Kenny Rogers, Steve Carlton, David Wells, Jamie Moyer, Tom Glavine and Tommy John (a brigade of lefties) were in the range of 13-15. But surely 3/$120 plus a 1/$40 vesting option can get it done right?
In OOTP when I GM'd the Cubs, I did these sorts of deals all the time. Well, not 4/$160 but whatever the OOTP equivalent was of 1/$50 or 2/$80 ... find the great old FA pitcher on the market, make a ridiculous but short AAV offer, win another WS, rinse, repeat. Told ya I shoulda been the Mets' GM.
But, man, that much money on an old pitcher (sure, he's been great, but all pitchers are risks and mileage doesn't reduce that).
Glad it's not my job to make that call.
Why is that obvious? Clemens, Schilling, Maddux, Johnson, Glavine, and Smoltz (hell even Andy Pettitte) made it to 40 (or beyond) before they retired or "fell off a cliff".
I will look forward to Soto’s at bats against Max should the match-up occur.
I get what you mean, but through age 36 Scherzer is actually right at Johnson's level - 2536.2 IP of 134 ERA+ pitching with no signs of slowing down, vs Johnson's 2498.2 IP at 138 ERA+.
"This new Mets front office leaks more than any other in history."
I don't recall a single rumor about them signing SMarte, Canha, or Escobar but admittedly I guess I could have missed them.
i don't follow the mets. and i don't know how good scherzer is anymore.
but after all, it's a bit of a weak division, no? the mets + a good pitcher could catch atlanta as they are constituted now, yes?
also, a guy like scherzer sure looks like the kind of signing that the fans would just love.
Star right-hander Max Scherzer and the New York Mets have agreed to a three-year, $130 million contract, sources familiar with the situation told ESPN's Jeff Passan.
Scherzer can opt out of the contract after the second season of the deal, the sources said.
The $43.33 million average annual salary of the deal sets a record, surpassing the $36 million New York Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole is averaging after signing a nine-year, $324 million contract in 2019.
Scherzer, 37, becomes the oldest player in MLB history to sign a $100 million contract, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Kevin Brown was 33 when he signed the first $100 million deal in MLB history in 1998.
He was countering your suggestion that he'd "fall off a cliff." One can slide from the elite ranks without going full Robby Alomar.
Tough call: would you rather roll the dice on Scherzer at 3/$130 or Verlander at 2/$50. I think I'll take the latter (assuming a clear physical) even though the risk of getting nothing is much higher. $80 M can do a lot of good over 3 years. You could get Verlander and 5 years of Eduardo Rodriguez and still have enough ashtray money for a decent arb player. Or Verlander and 4 years of Marte (not that Scherzer's contract kept the Mets from getting Marte).
Is ZiPS adjusted for 2020's artificial playing time limitations? (Genuine question - it very well might be for all I know. But if not, that will suppress everyone's WAR projections for a couple years.)
Zips isn't "real."
Of course not, ZiPS is a median projection. A player beating their projection (or falling short of it) shouldn't be surprising at all.
Zips seems pessimistic to me. Scherzer has been a 6+ WAR pitcher for NINE straight years. Starting him at 3.9 seems harsh.
Well, the model is based on the average player. I doubt there is a large enough sample size to model elite-pitcher aging between ages 35 and 40. If elite players age better than average, there could be a systematic bias that the model can't correct for.
/#IWANTTOBELIEVE
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