After the 2016 season, his age 33 season, Cano was all-but-into the Hall of Fame: He finished in the top 8 for MVP for the 6th time in the eight previous seasons, six more all-star games during the stretch, some gold gloves, silver sluggers. He had locked in a huge contract with Seattle, already had 2,210 hits, 278 HRs, almost 1100 RBIs, slash line of .307/.355/.498...he was all set.

And then it has completely fallen apart - the injuries, the PEDs, the suspensions, the loss of tens of millions in salary, his reputation...what was he thinking?

thumbs up

If it's any consolation, Jarred Kelenic, despite being the #4 prospect in baseball two years after the trade, now has 114 MLB games under his belt with a .175/.257/.342 slash line and a 67 OPS+ for the Mariners.

Isn't this the kind of pickup a team like the orioles or reds should make ?

Biggio & Alomar may be the last 2B elected by the BBWAA for a very long time. Talking about Cano, Kinsler, Pedroia, & Utley of course, Kent too. Not very sanguine about their VC prospects either. Altuve is the only active guy anywhere on the horizon, and he's about to turn 32 and is on the DL after hitting .167 with 1 XBH, and may get the sign stealing taint when his candidacy finally comes up.

Isn't this the kind of pickup a team like the orioles or reds should make ?

Not sure I see the angle there. Most likely some contender who suffers an injury picks him up as a bench bat. I can see him rejoining the Yankees, for example.

Some teams might think that 3 weeks of Spring Training & a month of largely cold weather games isn’t enough to be sure Cano is done, but that probably just gets him, at best, a chance to prove himself in the minors, which might not be the most likely outcome. No idea whose roster configuration, if any, might be a fit, but the Yankees wouldn’t seem likely, with LeMahieu & Torres having 2nd covered, plus Rizzo at 1st.

[4] My first thought is that it's the type of guy the Dodgers pick up, like they did with Pujols and Cole Hamels last year (Hamels got hurt again and never made it to the bigs). Our tradition of top players finishing their careers here include such immortals as Greg Maddux, Rickey Henderson, and Juan Marichal.

Or Jim Thome!

With the O's it lands under 'why not? Nothing to lose' - see if he can get going then flip him at the trade deadline. The O's are coming in last in the AL East almost 100% for certain anyways and only 4 guys on their team have 100+ OPS+ so no risk.

Cincinnati also lands under the 'why not' category - just 3-19 with Votto at a 20 OPS+ (probably just depressed), Moustakas at 14, overall team at 63 (!!) - hey, that is Mario Mendoza's best OPS+ in his career (the infamous 'Mendoza line' guy).

When your team sucks you need to grab anyone you can, see if they can get hot, then trade them for anything you can.

Talking about Cano, Kinsler, Pedroia, & Utley of course, Kent too. Not very sanguine about their VC prospects either.

I think it's almost a dead cert that Utley gets in through the VC.

It is a bit sad to see what's become of Robby. In his NY years I resented him deeply, and in his Seattle years, I loved him irrationally. To see drugs take him down has been a bummer.

That said, I agree with [8] that LA seems like a natural place for him to end up. With Lux at 2B and a 37-year-old Justin Turner at 3B -- and having gained the insight that it's basically impossible to spend too much money if you are the dominant team in a market like Los Angeles -- they could take a flier on Cano with basically no downside. The evidence that he's actually bad now basically boils down to a shitty couple of weeks and the actuarial fact of his age.

The evidence that he's actually bad now basically boils down to a shitty couple of weeks and the actuarial fact of his age.

The fact that he missed a year of baseball and is probably not taking PED anymore is additional evidence that what we've seen is real. He also had a .125 ISO winter ball this year.

He really can't play second base any more, so even if he recovers his bat a bit, he is no longer a valuable player.

Rob. Cano with the Mets: 168 games, 648 PA, .269/.315/.450, 106 OPS+
Rob. Alomar with the Mets: 222 games, 957 PA, .265/.333/.370, 88 OPS+

When it comes to adding washed-up Hall of Fame second basemen, the Mets are actually getting better at it.

Cano in August 2019 was 9 for 15 with a HR and 4 doubles.
September 2019 was .856 OPS.
2020 overall was .896 OPS.

I think he's toast because he missed a year, he's really old, and maybe he doesn't take PEDs anymore.

but I'm saying there's a chance (even while I'm glad the Mets made this move, because they have better options).

$40 million is a lot to pay a guy not to play for you. Benefits of new ownership, can't see the prior owners doing this.

Cano is 7th all-time in JAWS among second basemen, ahead of Utley, Sandberg, and Alomar. I wouldn't have expected that.

but I'm saying there's a chance (even while I'm glad the Mets made this move, because they have better options).

It's a no brainer for the Mets b/c McNeill is hitting .360, but there are probably a few teams that could give him a shot at 1B or DH.

$40 million is a lot to pay a guy not to play for you. Benefits of new ownership, can't see the prior owners doing this.

The old regime would be the ones signing him. Just ask Mets legends Bobby Abreu and Adrian Gonzalez.

$40 million is a lot to pay a guy not to play for you.

If he's below replacement level, it's better to pay him the $40m not to play than to play.

The O's are coming in last in the AL East almost 100% for certain anyways and only 4 guys on their team have 100+ OPS+ so no risk.

Keep the faith. The Red Sox are only a half game out of last place, and the Orioles have a game-in-hand!

$40 million is a lot to pay a guy not to play for you

Seattle is still picking up some of that. In the deal as a whole, Seattle paid nearly half his salary -- they picked up $36.5 M via Bruce and Swarzak and they gave the Mets $20 M in cash spread out over these later years. Nobody expected Cano to be a star with the Mets, he was being paid to put up something like 3 WAR, 2 WAR, 2 WAR, take what you get.

Keep the faith. The Red Sox are only a half game out of last place, and the Orioles have a game-in-hand!

In the last 15 years, the Red Sox have had 5 division winners and 4 last place finishes.** They might now just be trying to even things out.

** Between 2012 and 2018, they completely eliminated the middlemen, with 4 division winners and 3 last place finishes in 7 years.

what was he thinking?

I'm not a Cano mind reader but all of the following are plausible:

1. I want to be a star player, I don't really care if I go into the HoF
2. I want to help my team
3. I am being paid big money to be a star, I owe it to the team and the fans
4. Getting old sucks, I hear this stuff can help
5. This personal trainer assures me I won't get caught and he sure seems to understand body chemistry
6. This supplement contains what?? (hard to keep thinking this after the first suspension)
7. Player X says he's used this stuff for years and he's never been caught
8. I've been using this stuff for years and never been caught

With the O's it lands under 'why not? Nothing to lose' - see if he can get going then flip him at the trade deadline. The O's are coming in last in the AL East almost 100% for certain anyways and only 4 guys on their team have 100+ OPS+ so no risk

At first I was thinking no way, but as I read your post: OK it does sound plausible.

But what about giving young players a chance to "develop?"

Is this a thing or isnt it? I mean we hear this all the time. So and so wasn't given a chance to develop. So and so was sent down to AAA where he stagnated. It's a good chance to play some young guys and see if they develop.

Do we as sabermetricians actually believe in getting young players PT at the MLB level to develop them or not?

Don’t see recovery to good player status likely. Few recent waiver deals seem to work out well for the donor team. Os have little to show from the big rebuild (Machado, Schoop, Gausman, etc.) .The younger Birds should play to see if they can . AA team is juggling 3 shortstops ; one of them should get to Baltimore soon. DH is covered by Mancini and others. And 9 other reasons to say no to Cano…

At first I was thinking no way, but as I read your post: OK it does sound plausible.

But what about giving young players a chance to "develop?"

Is this a thing or isnt it? I mean we hear this all the time. So and so wasn't given a chance to develop. So and so was sent down to AAA where he stagnated. It's a good chance to play some young guys and see if they develop.

Do we as sabermetricians actually believe in getting young players PT at the MLB level to develop them or not?

Do they have young players to slot in those spots? You don't want to rush guys and have them overwhelmed. Their current 2B is Rougned Odor. He's not young and has been crappy for 6 years.

#25 Which young players did you have in mind with the Orioles? Or the Reds for that matter. Maybe José Barrero for the Reds (though he's on the DL right now)

Do they have young players to slot in those spots?

There have been a few guys let go in the past day as teams get down to roster limits. They should be scouring the waiver wire for those kind of under 30-year olds, not wasting time with Robinson Cano. Like Bobby Bradley (just DFA'd) makes way more sense for Baltimore than Cano.

Young players -- almost no team ever has 9+ young guys close enough to MLB ready to plug into the everyday lineup. No matter how young and rebuilding you are, you'll pretty much always have some vets on the team, even if they are 28-yo AAAA types.

So should the O's (or whoever) give Cano playing time over some 23-yo in his second year in the bigs? Certainly not. Should some team give him playing time over whoever this year's end-of-career Jay Bruce is? Maybe, can't hurt, worst case scenario they've got another Jay Bruce to cut. Should Cano maybe replace that 28-yo backup IF with the career 72 OPS+ in 634 PA spread across parts of 4 seasons? Why not?

Then there's the issue of whether the O's/Reds have such a young player. If the O's do, they've got them safely protected down in the minors. Mountcastle is the youngest starter at 25 and they have 2 other 25-yos on the bench. Even Rutschman isn't up yet. So should Cano get playing time to help keep some deserving young player down until the super-2 deadline or the trade deadline has passed so O's ownership can put more millions in their pocket? Why not?

Then there's the Reds. It's pretty common that the first season after a fire sale is a disaster. One minute you're a comptetent MLB team (83-79 last year), the next you have almost zero MLB talent but have to fill out a 26-man roster. The least they could do is relegate you to AAA so you could chill out for a bit but nope. So the 2022 Reds have given about 60% of their PAs to players 29 or older (the rotation is quite young though). Votto and Moose they were pretty much stuck with but 31-yo Kyle Farmer (979 PA spread across 5+ seasons, career 80 OPS+) appears to be the starting SS. Starting RF Tyler Naquin is a 31-yo late bloomer who has had a few moments as a 4th/5th OF in Cle. Now neither Farmer nor Naquin could be replaced by Cano and, once he's healthy, you obviously put India back at 2B and you're not gonna play Cano over Votto. But I don't see an obvious DH candidate in Cincy.

Not that anybody expects Cano to do anything but nobody expects Moustakas or Brandon Drury or TJ Friedl or Matt Reynolds to do anything either.

#29: can't disagree with that ... and I hadn't thought about the 28 to 26 cuts, there will surely be better talent than Cano around. I'm a little surprised how many guys are getting DFA'd off the 28-man. But for Cincy, Bradley has to slot in at DH too (unless Votto prefers DH) and he's blocked by Mountcastle and Mancini in Balt (O's OFs are doing pretty well and Mancini is at DH mostly). The A's would make sense for Bradley.

I think it's almost a dead cert that Utley gets in through the VC.

Utley's at 64 WAR, just above my in/out line. The writers might not give him a single vote.

Cano might be a good fit for the Red Sox. Put JDM in left, move Verdugo to right and use Cano as a DH. Or in a simpler way could Cano play first?

Utley's at 64 WAR, just above my in/out line. The writers might not give him a single vote.

Ludicrous. Utley will survive to see a second ballot, and could very well get in through the writers.

When the Messiah in Mask and Mitt arrives soon; he (Adley) will need to play some 1b and DH. His non-catching days will bump Mancini or Mountcastle and/or one of the outfielders. Cano has little value as a DH in Charm City.

I can't see any upside to a team like the Reds signing Cano. The best-case scenario, as John Northey lays it out, is that Cano has a hot month or two and the Reds trade him for something - but what are they likely to get? An A-ball reliever? And if that's your endgame, Moustakas or Tyler Naquin or someone is probably likelier to get hot than Cano, and all you're doing is taking at-bats from someone who might bring more in a trade.

And if Cano gets hot, that's what, at most the difference between 50 wins and 48? Since he's not in fact any good, he's not going to move the needle on wins at all.

If I were a fan of the Reds and they wasted at-bats on Cano rather than some 26 year old who might actually have a future with the team, I'd be pissed. The Reds already have plenty of bad players, and there's no point in adding another one.

To be fair, the argument against signing Robinson Cano is pretty strong.

But the Reds have done nothing to find these 26-yos. The average batter age is over 30. They have two 25-yo in the lineup -- injured C Tyler Stephenson and injured 2B India. They have 3 26-yos ... a C who seems to only be up because Stephenson is hurt, OF TJ Friedl who seems up either because 4th OF Jake Fraley (27) is hurt or because former hopeful Aristides Aquino (28) has been DFA'dl Alejo Lopez is a 26-yo 2B who does actuallly look kind intersting. The other 27-yo on the roster is former prospect OF Nick Senzel who is below-replacement in 669 career PA. Of course Cano isn't likely to be stealing any PAs from OF and C although I suppose somebody holds the DH spot every day. Agreed no point giving him time over Lopez.

The guys he might take time away from are 38-yo Votto (unlikely), 33-yo Moustakas, 29-yo Brandon Drury (career OPS+ 85, replacement level) and 29-yo Colin Moran (career 100 OPS+ but replacement level career thanks to defense). Granted, Drury, Moran and Moose are all probably better bets with the bat than Cano and hard to imagine he'd be any good at 3B at 38 so, sure, not much point in Cano on this team ... but it's got nothing to do with PT for 26-yo potential somethings.

This is pretty common for first-year rebuilding teams. If the Reds already had in-house talent ready to go, they probably don't tear down. In the tear down, nobody they had to trade away was really good enough to bring in young MLB-ready talent nor would there be much point in that without some pieces to put around them. So the Reds had to put together a team in, what, 3 weeks after the CBA deal was done? The Gray trade was Mar 13, Winker/Suarez on the 14th. Moran was signed on the 17th, Drury 21st, Pham 26th.

Over time they'll add a few genuine prospects, a lot of AAAA talent, hopefully make some good decisions on who to keep and not. But right now, they're just trying to get 9 warm-ish bodies in the lineup every night. Cano's just pining for the fjords, too soon to write him off completely. But sure, even the Reds might have 12-13 guys with a higher body temperature than Cano.

Doesn't Cano have a say in where he ends up after he clears waivers? He gets the same regardless of which team he chooses to play for.

I think the bigger point is just wanting him gone - with the big contract and money still owed, his PED suspensions, maybe it’s time for the nearly 40 year old to enjoy life as anything but a big league player. Can see a scenario where people are looking for places for him to be a part timer, be a mentor even if he doesn’t hit, but people have made up their minds he has no value to a team in 2022.

Ludicrous. Utley will survive to see a second ballot, and could very well get in through the writers.

Balderdash. MLB had to rewrite the rules for a legal slide due to Utley's history of reckless play that eventually resulted in him breaking another player's leg. The BBWAA will be all too happy to Character Clause him out of the Hall.

The BBWAA will be all too happy to Character Clause him out of the Hall.

I'd be fine with that, but it ain't going to happen.

MLB had to rewrite the rules for a legal slide due to Utley's history of reckless play that eventually resulted in him breaking another player's leg. The BBWAA will be all too happy to Character Clause him out of the Hall.

Utley broke up a double play the way MLB players had done for more than a 100 years, and it was legal under the rules at the time, so it won’t have any effect on his HoF chances.

MLB had to rewrite the rules for a legal slide due to Utley's history of reckless play that eventually resulted in him breaking another player's leg. The BBWAA will be all too happy to Character Clause him out of the Hall.

Yeah . . . no. No one ever got excluded from the hall based on a hard slide.

I'd be surprised if Utley gets voted in, but I would be truly shocked if gets 0 votes, or even <5%.

I'd be surprised if Utley gets voted in, but I would be truly shocked if gets 0 votes, or even <5%.

He won't be anywhere near election when he hits the ballot, but he has a chance to move up the way Rolen has. He's probably not quite as good a candidate as Scott (though he's close), but he's going to have some pretty weak ballots, much weaker than the ones Rolen worked his way up through.

#44 - No one ever got excluded from the Hall for PED's until McGwire hit the ballot. No one ever got snubbed for DV until the allegations came out against Vizquel. No one ever got excluded for inflammatory Twitter comments until Schilling did. No one has been snubbed for sign stealing yet, but I wouldn't get too excited about Carlos Beltrans chances. IOW, past applications of the character clause (or lack thereof) don't really apply today. The BBWAA (and society in general) are much more critical of character issues than they've ever been before (for good and bad).

That said, I agree that an in-game violation like Utley's probably won't change many voters minds, at least not permanently (we may see some 1 year snubs like we did with Alomars spitting incident, but unlike Robbie, Chase wasn't going 1st ballot anyway).

Utley is a borderline candidate by Baseball-Reference WAR, and that's the measurement that is most charitable to him. If that site switched back to using TotalZone rather than DRS (which has him averaging 22 runs saved a year from 2005-08), his WAR would drop to 57.5, and hardly anyone would champion his case. For some reason 60 WAR has cemented itself as the dividing line.

His playoff record isn't as good as I thought, but it's dragged down by his awful LA numbers. I didn't realize that he once went 0-for-the entire postseason.

Jack Morris had a 3.80 postseason ERA (vs 3.90 regular season), and he got in for being a "clutch playoff game guy."
that won't be what keeps Utley out.

Yeah, I don't think the writers need the character clause to keep Utley out. I don't think he's a one and done threat, but I do suspect he's just not seen as the great candidate that the SABR crowd thinks he is by mainstream fans and media. He's Rolen with zero gold gloves and lower numbers across the board (so basically, minus all the things that are going to get Rolen elected).

He really will be on some pretty weak ballots though, so that's a legit point in his favor.

He's Rolen with zero gold gloves and lower numbers across the board (so basically, minus all the things that are going to get Rolen elected).

Also, as we both know, what Rolen's doing is really unusual. Even if Utley was identical as a candidate, he'd have a tough path.

I think his chances depend on how much more the electorate changes in the coming decade and how compelled it feels to keep electing people.

#44 - No one ever got excluded from the Hall for PED's until McGwire hit the ballot. No one ever got snubbed for DV until the allegations came out against Vizquel. No one ever got excluded for inflammatory Twitter comments until Schilling did. No one has been snubbed for sign stealing yet, but I wouldn't get too excited about Carlos Beltrans chances. IOW, past applications of the character clause (or lack thereof) don't really apply today. The BBWAA (and society in general) are much more critical of character issues than they've ever been before (for good and bad).

Mac was the 1st steroid-tainted candidate to appear, ever. [Note I don't hold that against him, personally] Were there ever other players who hit their wives who got elected anyway? [There may have been] Or said things as vile as Schill did? [Again, being inquisitive not rhetorical] I will admit that Pete Rose likely was (pre gambling) likely going to be the 1st unanimous candidate to be elected despite his dirty play; it may be if he was born 40 years later he wouldn't be.

The sign-stealers [Didn't the Giants try that in 1951?], headhunters [Burleigh Grimes et al.] and spitballers of yore [Gaylord Perry & etc.] did seem to be seen as more part of the game and less disqualifying, but some of the more recent sins do seem to be of a lower character than a lot of the stuff from the game's earlier history. Racism likely should be thrown in there, too; any recent examples of racist crap (other than Schill natch) which seriously devalued the player (or manager/exec) in the public's eye?

If that site switched back to using TotalZone rather than DRS (which has him averaging 22 runs saved a year from 2005-08), his WAR would drop to 57.5, and hardly anyone would champion his case

TotalZone is really problematical. It diminishes both ends of the bell shaped curve, both very good and very bad defenses are minimized. Picking something like this as a standard is very unfair to good defenders.

Recently bRef dropped the UZR metric for range and replaced it with OAAs from Statcast. This might give us some idea of how far off TZ and UZR were:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-fangraphs-war-fielding-update/

Through age 31 Utley's defensive numbers were stellar (IM guessing he was the best def. 2b at that pt). Im almost certain what you see on Baseball reference is minimizing his value because it is using outdated TZ metric. If anything he should have more career WAR.

BRef also doesnt attempt to value extra bases taken on hits, as well as moving up on WP and PB. During his heyday he was taking XB at a 60% clip 20% above avg. That's probably 12 bases and 3 Runs right there. Hes about average at making outs on the bases so loss for all that risk. Other good players are hurt by this as well, of course, but it should be mentioned.

He's an 8 WAR player for about 5 seasons, I can see him being in reality a 9 WAR player for those. that's pretty significant accomplishment.

Compared to Lou Boudreau these two are very very similar. Utley is a far better baserunner, Boudreau is a bit above average at taking bases. Both of them are outstanding fielders. They both produced about 60 WAR in a prime of ten seasons. They are both very deserving I think.

headhunters [Burleigh Grimes et al.

what's the basis for that statement? Grimes lead the league in HBP twice with 10/11. Ehmke hit 23 one season. Kerry Wood hit 21. Walter Johnson has twice as many for his career as Grimes. But maybe Grimes did something?

Utley broke up a double play the way MLB players had done for more than a 100 years, and it was legal under the rules at the time, so it won’t have any effect on his HoF chances.

ITs probably what he's most remember for. And Im pretty sure it will hurt his chances.

Through age 31 Utley's defensive numbers were stellar (IM guessing he was the best def. 2b at that pt). Im almost certain what you see on Baseball reference is minimizing his value because it is using outdated TZ metric. If anything he should have more career WAR.

They don't use TotalZone to calculate Utley's WAR. They use DRS. TZ is used in WAR for pre-2003 seasons, of which Utley has none.

BRef also doesnt attempt to value extra bases taken on hits, as well as moving up on WP and PB. During his heyday he was taking XB at a 60% clip 20% above avg. That's probably 12 bases and 3 Runs right there. Hes about average at making outs on the bases so loss for all that risk. Other good players are hurt by this as well, of course, but it should be mentioned.

It absolutely attempts to value all of those things. https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_position.shtml - scroll to the section titled "Rbr, Baserunning Runs."

Im not sure about the Rbaser stat. We had a discussion about this, perhaps it was in reference to players pre 2000. It doesnt really seem like its accounting for that. If you mouse over the Rbaser title on baseball reference it simply says: SB, CS, WP, PB and defensive indifference.

It doesnt seem to be accounting for like Campaneris or Clemente or any of the older players on XB skill. But I'll look at it again.

They don't use TotalZone to calculate Utley's WAR. They use DRS. TZ is used in WAR for pre-2003 seasons

I was thinking the cutoff line was different. So my bad there.

But there is a pt. to be made that fangraphs has replaced DRS with OAAs for fielding range component. I am under the impression that there is greater skew with OAA but that's just my impression from obsessing over the TZ issue.

Mac was the 1st steroid-tainted candidate to appear, ever. [Note I don't hold that against him, personally]

Lots of other PED candidates (amps) appeared before Mac and no one cared. Yes, I know that fans and the media collectively decided that steroids are worse than other types of PED's because reasons, but even if you focused solely on greenies, I suspect a culture of rampant amp use nowadays would get a lot more criticism than it did 40 years ago.

Were there ever other players who hit their wives who got elected anyway? [There may have been]

Joe DiMaggio and Bobby Cox off the top of my head. There's probably others.

Or said things as vile as Schill did? [Again, being inquisitive not rhetorical]

Almost certainly. Probably lots of them. This is the snub that I think is probably most specific to the current era. I can't imagine words - even very unpopular ones - uttered over a decade after a player retired having this much impact in any previous era.

Cano might be a good fit for the Red Sox. Put JDM in left, move Verdugo to right and use Cano as a DH. Or in a simpler way could Cano play first?

No, no, and no. God no. Just no. The Red Sox have enough sub ..600 OPS guys on the roster, thank you.