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Monday, November 28, 2022

Miguel Cabrera confirms plans to retire after 2023 season, but wants to stay in baseball

Miguel Cabrera, who joined the 3,000 hit club during the 2022 season, confirmed on Monday that his playing career will likely conclude sometime next year. “It feels a little weird to say that,” he told MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola. “I thought I’m not going to say never, but I think it’s time to say goodbye to baseball.”

Cabrera, 39, added that he would like to remain a member of the Detroit Tigers organization, with whom he’d like to assist younger players.

Cabrera’s announcement should come as no surprise. If anything, it was a predictable outcome given that the guaranteed portion of his contract runs through next season. (He’ll make $32 million in 2023 before being owed an $8 million buyout on a pair of club options.) Cabrera’s contract has kept him on the roster despite a cratered level of production. Indeed, he hasn’t posted an OPS+ of 100 or better since 2020, and he hasn’t topped the 110-mark since 2018.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 28, 2022 at 04:32 PM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: miguel cabrera, tigers

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   1. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: November 28, 2022 at 07:29 PM (#6107092)
Over the past six seasons (2017-2022), Cabrera has played a total of 603 games, averaging the following line for the past six years:

100 G
404 PAs
14 2Bs
10 HRs
49 RBIs
36/86 BB/K
.262/.330/.385/.715
OPS+ of 96

He has made $180 million over that six-year period.

Of course, in the nine years prior to that, he delivered big time for the Tigers, averaging:

153 G
659 PAs
38 2Bs
34 HRs
114 RBIs
77/103 BB/Ks
.325/.405/.573/.977
OPS+ of 161
Finished in the five in MVP five times, two wins; finished at least 13th in the vote all nine years.

He made almost exactly $180m over that nine-year period - which was obviously a great deal for the Tigers.

This is the nature of almost all long-term mega-contracts, and teams (and their fans bases) should just think of the last few years of these sort of deals as deferred compensation for the peak years you're getting below market value.
   2. McCoy Posted: November 28, 2022 at 07:41 PM (#6107093)
Tigers should have let his original deal end instead of signing him to this extension
   3. Booey Posted: November 28, 2022 at 08:29 PM (#6107098)
I'd love to see Cabrera have a dead cat bounce and give himself a fitting send off, a la Pujols. He doesn't have any major milestones within range like Albert did, but still.

Miggy joins a couple of guys named Mays and Aaron as the only 3 players in MLB history to pull off the .300/500/3000 milestone trifecta.
   4. The Duke Posted: November 28, 2022 at 09:17 PM (#6107101)
He's going in easily but I was surprised at how average his numbers are for the Hall.
   5. Howie Menckel Posted: November 28, 2022 at 09:26 PM (#6107103)
HOMERS
20. Willie McCovey+ (22) 521 9692
20. Frank Thomas+ (19) 521 10075
20. Ted Williams+ (19) 521 9792
23. Ernie Banks+ (19) 512 10396
23. Eddie Mathews+ (17) 512 10101
25. Mel Ott+ (22) 511 11347
26. Gary Sheffield (22) 509 10947
27. MIGUEL CABRERA (20, 39) 507 11426

RBI
10. Jimmie Foxx+ (20) 1922 9677
11. Eddie Murray+ (21) 1917 12817
12. Willie Mays+ (23) 1909 12545
13. Mel Ott+ (22) 1860 11347
14. MIGUEL CABRERA(20, 39) 1847 11426

AVERAGE
119. Magglio Ordonez (15) .3090 7745
120. Branch Russell (11) .3087 3387
120. Jack Tobin (13) .3087 6878
122. Virgil Davis (16) .3083 4718
123. MIGUEL CABRERA (20, 39) .3081 11426
124. Harvey Hendrick (11) .3079 3221
125. Mike Piazza+ (16) .3078 7745
126. Richie Ashburn+ (15) .3077 9737
127. Jake Beckley+ (20) .3076 10518

RUNS
50. Bill Dahlen (21) 1590 10438
51. George Brett+ (21) 1583 11625
51. Jim Thome+ (22) 1583 10313
53. Carlos Beltran (20) 1582 11031
54. Rogers Hornsby+ (23) 1579 9481
55. Tim Raines+ (23) 1571 10359
56. Hugh Duffy+ (17) 1554 7842
57. Reggie Jackson+ (21) 1551 11418
58. Max Carey+ (20) 1545 10772
58. George Davis+ (20) 1545 10188
60. Manny Ramirez (19) 1544 9774
61. Frankie Frisch+ (19) 1532 10101
62. MIGUEL CABRERA (20, 39) 1530 11426

DOUBLES
12. David Ortiz+ (20) 632 10091
13. Henry Aaron+ (23) 624 13941
14. MIGUEL CABRERA (20, 39) 607 11426

GAMES
20. Rafael Palmeiro (20) 2831 12046
21. Harold Baines+ (22) 2830 11092
22. Eddie Collins+ (25) 2826 12087
23. Reggie Jackson+ (21) 2820 11418
24. Frank Robinson+ (21) 2808 11744
25. Honus Wagner+ (21) 2794 11766
26. Tris Speaker+ (22) 2789 12020
27. Alex Rodriguez (22) 2784 12207
28. Tony Perez+ (23) 2777 10861
29. Derek Jeter+ (20) 2747 12602
30. Mel Ott+ (22) 2730 11347
31. George Brett+ (21) 2707 11625
32. Graig Nettles (22) 2700 10228
33. MIGUEL CABRERA (20, 39) 2699 11426
   6. Booey Posted: November 28, 2022 at 10:41 PM (#6107109)
#4 - Other than his admittedly lower than you'd expect WAR/WAA (67.7/29.6) - and TBF it was higher at its peak (69.8/39.9 through 2016) - nothing about Cabrera's numbers look average to me, even by HOF standards. He's 25th all time in hits, 16th in total bases, 14th in doubles, 27th in homers, 14th in RBI, and 16th in extra base hits. He's 15th all time in MVP shares (2 wins), 12 all star appearances, 7 silver sluggers, 4 batting titles, and he's well above the average HOFer in all 4 of the Hall of Fame Statistics:

Black Ink - 43 (42nd), average HOFer - 27
Gray Ink - 241 (34th), average HOFer - 144
HOF Monitor - 293 (17th), likely HOFer - 100
HOF Standards - 64 (24th), average HOFer - 50

Only Triple Crown in the past 50 years, one of just 7 players with 500 homers and 3000 hits (and with the highest BA of the 7), etc. I think his numbers might be getting a bit overlooked because his career was an almost direct parallel with an even better version of himself in Pujols.
   7. DCA Posted: November 29, 2022 at 10:59 AM (#6107142)
He's 25th all time in hits, 16th in total bases, 14th in doubles, 27th in homers, 14th in RBI, and 16th in extra base hits.

For a guy whose entire case is hitting, that's kinda average though. I guess average isn't exactly the word, but we need a word for someone who is in the middle of the pack of HOFers - a full tier, or tier and a half, away from the inner circle, but probably first ballot and well above the borderline types. Cabrera is a kind with Murray, Alomar, Biggio, Billy Williams, etc.
   8. Darren Posted: November 29, 2022 at 11:31 AM (#6107146)
#4 - Other than his admittedly lower than you'd expect WAR/WAA (67.7/29.6) - and TBF it was higher at its peak (69.8/39.9 through 2016) - nothing about Cabrera's numbers look average to me, even by HOF standards.


But those WAR numbers (including his peak 7 years of 44.8) ARE quite average for a Hall of Famer, and I suspect that was what was meant by #4. And as DCA points out, without defense, you better have lots of hits and home runs. In the end, though, it all adding up to being an average HOF means he's one of the best couple hundred baseball players ever. Pretty good.
   9. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: November 29, 2022 at 11:43 AM (#6107151)
I think first-ballot HOFer is a fine title.

Pretty damn good career no matter how you slice it. We had a robust discussion about Raffy Palmeiro a couple weeks ago, and Cabrera has a similar-looking career with no PED taint. They're both top 30 in most hitting categories, but Cabrera had more MVP vote love, and deservedly so. All-Star games and MVP votes are not perfect of course, but I think they also put Miggy a cut above the guys DCA listed in #7 and closer to guys like Tony Gwynn. Only Alomar has anywhere near the All-Star appearances of Miggy.
   10. Booey Posted: November 29, 2022 at 11:49 AM (#6107152)
Cabrera is a kind with Murray, Alomar, Biggio, Billy Williams, etc.


Unless we're talking strictly about the value stats, I don't really see it. Cabrera isn't inner circle, of course, but he was one of the truly elite hitters in the game for a dozen or so years. Murray only was for about half that length of time (and then merely good for several years before and after). Williams was off and on, but never for an extended run. And Alomar and Biggio never were (although obviously hitting wasn't their only source of value).

Black Ink:
Cabrera - 43
Murray - 11
Williams - 18
Alomar - 3
Biggio - 17

Gray Ink:
Cabrera - 241
Murray - 181
Williams - 208
Alomar - 95
Biggio - 104

HOF Monitor:
Cabrera - 293
Murray - 155
Williams - 122
Alomar - 194
Biggio - 169

HOF Standards:
Cabrera - 64
Murray - 56
Williams - 48
Alomar - 57
Biggio - 57

MVP Shares:
Cabrera - 4.68 (15th, 2 wins)
Murray - 3.33 (24th, 0 wins)
Williams - 1.61 (150th, 0 wins)
Alomar - 1.91 (118th, 0 wins)
Biggio - 1.02 (265th, 0 wins)

I personally think Frank Thomas or a non-PED version of Manny Ramirez are better comps for Miggy.
   11. Booey Posted: November 29, 2022 at 11:57 AM (#6107154)
To be clear, I'm saying that Cabrera's HITTING numbers don't look average for a HOFer, which I thought was what #4 was saying. As an overall PLAYER, yes, he's probably your "average" first ballot Hall of Famer (which of course is still really damn good).
   12. Walt Davis Posted: November 29, 2022 at 03:00 PM (#6107199)
He's McCovey with probably less raw power, better BA (somewhat cherry-picked below to get PA to line up, ignoring their decline phases)

MC 22-33 7970 PA, 326/405/571, 159 OPS+, 401 HR, 2258 H, 1181 R, 1379 RBI, 66 WAR, 39 WAA, -13 dWAR
WM 21-37 7977 PA, 276/386/538, 157 OPS+, 458 HR, 1840 H, 1081 R, 1296 RBI, 64 WAR, 36 WAA, -17 dWAR

Reggie 22-34 is quite similar too, offensively with Mac's BA and Miggy's HR but substantially more defensive value than those two. Thomas 23-35 is better offensively but comes up worse by WAR with even worse defense. Bagwell is Miggy with defensive value and extra walks; Sheffield is Miggy with even worse defense. Manny 24-36 is in this group too while Thome was probably the most powerful.

Black ink might be an interesting way to comp these guys ... black ink (all-time rank)

Miggy 43 (42)
Reggie 35 (56)
McCovey 31 (68)
Bagwell 24 (100)
Thomas 21
Manny 21
Thome 13
Sheffield 4

And that's why we think Miggy should stand out more than he does -- he's probably the best peak but comes back to the pack in prime and then spins his wheels for the rest of his career. I assume most of that is due to his superior BA compared with most of these guys. I'm surprised Thomas doesn't have a bit more than that, Reggie has more than I'd have guessed. And of course this is why some of us are pretty lukewarm on Sheffield.

As to "average", depends on your comparison group of course. I tend to concern myself with modern-ish guys voted in by the writers (and a handful of the VC selections). As a corner player, getting voted in by the writers over the last 50 years, especially easily so, frequently coincided with either 3000 hits or 500 HRs with them as likely to make a borderline mistake of inclusion (Puckett, Perez, Rice) as probably getting one right (Stargell) and got some clearly wrong (Santo, Trammell). Of course 3000 hits AND 500 HRs remains rare; but still some of those career numbers look pretty Winfield/Murray/Palmeiro/Sheffield

MC >11,000 PA, 3088 H, 507 HR, 1847 RBI
DW >12,000 PA, 3110 H, 465 HR, 1833 RBI
EM >12,500 PA, 3255 H, 504 HR, 1917 RBI
RP >12,000 PA, 3020 H, 569 HR, 1835 RBI
GS <11,000 PA, 2689 H, 509 HR, 1676 RBI

Miggy's ended up with career compiler numbers, granted mostly in 1.5-2 season's fewer PAs. So kinda "average" in that HoFer sense. Nobody argues that Murray and Winfield belong (or that Palmeiro would) but nobody's all that excited about them being there either. That outstanding peak (much better than any of these guys I'm sure) has been balanced by this terrible swan song. Thru 33 and post-33 (with Frank Thomas added, Sheff out):

MC 70 WAR, -2 WAR
DW 49 WAR, 15 WAR
EM 58 WAR, 10 WAR
RP 50 WAR, 22 WAR
FT 59 WAR, 15 WAR

70 WAR through 33 is outstanding of course ... and much farther ahead of Thomas than I'd have guessed ... and that's why Miggy's been a lock for a long time.
   13. alilisd Posted: November 29, 2022 at 03:29 PM (#6107212)
Yeah, I'm more in line with Booey on this. I think you could say he's more like an average 1B as a hitter, but not a HOF. His runs, hits, 2B, HR and RBI are far higher than average. Even if you took PA's down to a comparable level, he'd still be above average on runs and hits by a bit, but far above on the others, and his ratios would then be much higher as well.

Name, Yrs,G, PA, AB, R, H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, SB,CS, BB, SO, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS
Avg HOFer,18,2072,8727,7663,1288,2321,403,100,221,1199,214,59,878,745,.303,.377,.468,.845

In addition to what Booey listed in #10, there are 12 AS appearances, HOF Avg is 6, 2 MVP, 7 SS, and 4 batting titles. Also agree with the Frank Thomas comp. A rare blend of high average and high power by both in their prime and peak years rarely seen in the modern game. I think Votto has it right, Cabrera is a fist ballot HOF, which is pretty clearly above average for a HOF. Apologies for the formatting on the small table.
   14. alilisd Posted: November 29, 2022 at 05:04 PM (#6107242)
Black ink might be an interesting way to comp these guys ... black ink (all-time rank)

Miggy 43 (42)
Reggie 35 (56)
McCovey 31 (68)
Bagwell 24 (100)
Thomas 21
Manny 21
Thome 13
Sheffield 4

And that's why we think Miggy should stand out more than he does -- he's probably the best peak but comes back to the pack in prime and then spins his wheels for the rest of his career.


It is very interesting, but I'd say it's why Miggy does stand out more, not that we think he should stand out more. Peak matters, although you're correct he does fall off a cliff at 34 and this leads to him falling into some groupings for career counting stats which make him look slightly more pedestrian.

Of course 3000 hits AND 500 HRs remains rare; but still some of those career numbers look pretty Winfield/Murray/Palmeiro/Sheffield

MC >11,000 PA, 3088 H, 507 HR, 1847 RBI
DW >12,000 PA, 3110 H, 465 HR, 1833 RBI
EM >12,500 PA, 3255 H, 504 HR, 1917 RBI
RP >12,000 PA, 3020 H, 569 HR, 1835 RBI
GS <11,000 PA, 2689 H, 509 HR, 1676 RBI


Yes, but you can include others in that grouping as well such as Frank Thomas, David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Reggie Jackson, Mike Schmidt, Sosa, Thome, and Bagwell, Yaz, and Chipper Jones if you go downstream on HR. The first six have more HR, some many more, but none have 3000 hits, nor do any of the three with fewer HR. None have as many RBI, although Yaz and Manny are very close. Jackson, and Jones have similar PA's, while Schmidt, Thomas, Thome and Ortiz have about 1100 to 1400 fewer, and Ramirez, Bagwell and Sosa being the outliers in terms of less playing time. So does he only look like Winfield, Murray and Palmeiro, or does he also look like Thomas, Jackson, Schmidt and others? This is a problem with comparing long career, high achieving players by counting stats only, or even by career WAR, peak gets washed out.

I tried to use the criteria you described, "I tend to concern myself with modern-ish guys voted in by the writers (and a handful of the VC selections). As a corner player, getting voted in by the writers over the last 50 years, especially easily so, frequently coincided with either 3000 hits or 500 HRs with them as likely to make a borderline mistake of inclusion (Puckett, Perez, Rice) as probably getting one right (Stargell) and got some clearly wrong (Santo, Trammell)." Using expansion era and at least 1000 games played at a corner with 50 career WAR yields 68 players and an average of:

9818 PA, 2446 H, 384 HR, 1392 RBI. Cabrera is 17% above average in PA, 26% above in H, 34% above in HR, and 34% above in RBI. Now that includes a lot of non HOF (and partial career for several), but I ran it because you were including guys like Palmeiro and Sheff in your comparisons above. If we change it to only HOF players, it's not much different. Cabrera is 13% above average in PA, 20% for H, 38% for HR and 32% for RBI. There are 36 HOF who met the criteria (I did leave out Banks as it only gets his age 30 and above seasons when he was really a diminished player) with Cabrera having the 7th most H, 7th most HR, and 2nd most RBI. Of course Aaron would also be in front of him for H and RBI but for the 1961 start date. I think even using career counting stats in this way shows Cabrera above average for the corner positions amongst HOF. He'd look a lot better if he hadn't tanked at 34, but his career numbers are quite respectable, and his peak does make him standout, to me at least.
   15. Booey Posted: November 29, 2022 at 05:10 PM (#6107245)
Miggy's a classic "prime" HOFer. He was great for twice as long as a peak candidate, but he didn't have the longevity/graceful decline as the Palmeiro career/compiler types, so they ended up with similar numbers despite Cabrera being the much better player at their peaks.

Miggy is in the Griffey/Pujols camp a bit in that even as a 1st ballot HOFer with (likely) 95%+ of the vote, his career was still a little disappointing compared to the expectations he'd established over his first dozen-ish seasons. A typical decline rather than a full out faceplant that left him worthless after age 33 and he'd be at 80-85 WAR with 600 homers and 2000 rbi.
   16. alilisd Posted: November 30, 2022 at 02:19 PM (#6107336)
Miggy's a classic "prime" HOFer. He was great for twice as long as a peak candidate, but he didn't have the longevity/graceful decline as the Palmeiro career/compiler types, so they ended up with similar numbers despite Cabrera being the much better player at their peaks.


Yeah, he's really impressive in this respect. Through age 33 he has a career OPS+ of 155 over 14 seasons and 9001 PA's. He has all the black ink and awards at that point, too, still over 2500 hits, with 446 HR, 1554 RBI, a .321 career BA. That's pretty much hit by a bus territory for most writers. Probably won't sail in over 90% (Murray and Winfield both were about 85%) without the big, round numbers of 500 and 3000, but still likely first ballot in a normal ballot situation. From a WAR/JAWS perspective he doesn't really change, add 2 career WAR so 1 more point on his JAWS score, which would put him into a dead heat, I think, with Thome for 10th in JAWS. B-R has added a WAR/162 number on the JAWS page with Cabrera at 4.1, the same as Palmeiro, but if you adjust his games and WAR down to age 33, he moves up to 5.4, and this is how he really distinguishes himself from the Palmeiro career/compiler types, as you said.
   17. alilisd Posted: November 30, 2022 at 02:25 PM (#6107337)
B-R has added a WAR/162 number on the JAWS page with Cabrera at 4.1, the same as Palmeiro, but if you adjust his games and WAR down to age 33, he moves up to 5.4, and this is how he really distinguishes himself from the Palmeiro career/compiler types, as you said.


To be a bit more apples to apples, Palmeiro does improve his WAR/162 to 4.5 if you take his first 2098 games, still well below Cabrera's 5.4 through his age 33 season with 2096 games.
   18. chisoxcollector Posted: November 30, 2022 at 03:50 PM (#6107359)
I know I’m biased, but peak Frank Thomas felt like a once in a generation hitter. Miggy, as great as he was, never quite felt like that.
   19. Booey Posted: November 30, 2022 at 07:04 PM (#6107392)
#18 - True, but I think that's as much about timing as anything. Thomas debuted at the beginning of sillyball (a few years before, actually), immediately following a decade of specialist hitters who could either hit 35-40 homers but with a .270 avg (Schmidt, Murphy, Strawberry, McGwire, Canseco, etc), or hit .330 with single digit power (Boggs, Gwynn). Cabrera debuted at the end of sillyball (and peaked after it was over), after we'd already witnessed the hitting exploits of Thomas, roid Barry, Pujols, Griffey, ARod, Bagwell, Piazza, Vlad, Manny, Chipper, Edgar, Walker, Helton, Sheffield, etc.

If we switched it and Miggy debuted in 1990 and Thomas in 2003, I think the perception of their dominance might be reversed.
   20. SoSH U at work Posted: November 30, 2022 at 07:27 PM (#6107393)
If we switched it and Miggy debuted in 1990 and Thomas in 2003, I think the perception of their dominance might be reversed.


There's no way of knowing for sure, but I think Thomas being viewed more favorably as a hitter is perfectly justified. Cabrera never had Big Hurt's plate discipline.

   21. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: November 30, 2022 at 10:18 PM (#6107412)
If we switched it and Miggy debuted in 1990 and Thomas in 2003, I think the perception of their dominance might be reversed.


There's no way of knowing for sure, but I think Thomas being viewed more favorably as a hitter is perfectly justified. Cabrera never had Big Hurt's plate discipline.


Through age-29, Thomas was a .330/.452/.600 hitter. Good for a 182 OPS+. There were mentions of him maybe being the 3rd best hitter of all-time if he kept it up. He didn't, of course, but, he was a ridiculously great hitter from 1990-1997.
   22. Booey Posted: December 01, 2022 at 01:16 AM (#6107421)
#20 - That is correct, although...

# of times leading league:

AVG - Cabrera = 4, Thomas = 1
OBP - Cabrera = 4, Thomas = 4
SLG - Cabrera = 2, Thomas = 1
OPS+ - Cabrera = 2, Thomas = 3
HR - Cabrera = 2, Thomas = 0
RBI - Cabrera = 2, Thomas = 0

MVP's - Cabrera = 2, Thomas = 2

And of course...

Triple Crowns - Cabrera = 1, Thomas = 0 ;-D

(Frank Thomas is one of my top 5 all time favorite players, so I'm not trying to diminish his accomplishments in any way)
   23. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 01, 2022 at 11:38 AM (#6107455)

Through age-29, Thomas was a .330/.452/.600 hitter. Good for a 182 OPS+.

Yep. And for comparison, Cabrera only had one season in his career with an OPS+ of 182 or better (plus one of 178 and one of 179).

That being said, that period for Thomas is about 4800 PA. Cabrera from age 27-33 was ~4600 PA of 169 OPS+, which is still really damn good.
   24. alilisd Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:00 PM (#6107495)
chisoxcollector Posted: November 30, 2022 at 03:50 PM (#6107359)
I know I’m biased, but peak Frank Thomas felt like a once in a generation hitter. Miggy, as great as he was, never quite felt like that.


Thomas had a better peak, and SoSH nails it with his plate discipline comment. I think some of the perceived difference is that Thomas's peak started right from the beginning of his career, he was great right out of the gate, whereas Cabrera's true peak didn't start until 2010, his 8th season. Thomas led the league in BB four times, OBP four times, and OPS+ three times in his peak, Cabrera did also lead the league in OBP four times though, BA four, and OPS+ twice during his peak from 2010-2016, 4560 PA's. He never led the league in BB though and only topped 100 once. Overall his OPS+ was "only" 169. It's in Rbat that the difference really comes through. Thomas had 458 to Cabrera's 356, that's a huge edge. If you just look at Thomas 1991-1997, evens out the PA's at 4550 FT and 4560 MC, Thomas has 437 Rbat, good for 62 per season or per 650 PA to MC Rbat 356, good for 51 per season or per 650 PA. That's a full win difference of 11 Rbat per season. Those BB made a difference.

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