Regarding Judge: For every Jim Thome, there are five enormous sluggers who don't age well into their 30s.

I'm not sure this is true. Leaving aside getting hung up on the definition of huge ... Ortiz, Stargell, Frank Thomas, Cruz, McCovey, Winfield.. Sure there's Boog and Mo and a number of others but those guys weren't really in this class of hitter. Judge is also an excellent OF these days, not an unathletic guy. Sure, some of those guys didn't age great -- for example if Judge is Thomas or McCovey from here, he won't make 500 HR but he would be over a 140 OPS+ careeer and 7500 PA. That would make him Larry Walker playing in Yankee Stadium.

I'd probably be in more agreement with "Judge has had trouble staying on the field, those guys don't age well, he's unlikely to ever get enough PA for a strong HoF case" which is sort of implied in his mentioning that he has just 188 HR. But then he says he thinks Stanton will squeak over the line -- a huge guy with more injuries (but a much earlier start).

Anyway, no major problem with the list except he probably under-estimates the chances of Judge and Ohtani. Ohtani is nearly a lock as long as he can get to 10 seasons while if Judge keeps going this season, he'll mainly just need to get himself to about 7500 PA and 400+ HRs to make it.

Nitpick: such exercises are always a little off because VCs keep adding guys to the HoF. That 89 only had 11 HoFers until the VC added Harold Baines of all people. I'm not willing to bet on any of them individually but I think history suggests a couple of these folks from 1989 will eventually make it: McGwire, Will Clark, Reuschel, Randolph, Hershiser, Mattingly. They'll never make it up to the average 18 -- the 80s were a HoF drag in general -- but the "true" average HoFers on a AS team is probably more like 19-20 than 18.

The "80's" and the HoF ... just bad luck mainly. So many of the really good players, esp pitchers, got hurt. The top (not best) starters of the era were Morris, Reuschel, Dennis Martinez, Tanana (again!). Gooden, Steib, the erratic Saberhagen, Strawberry, Eric Davis, maybe Mattingly and Canseco were HoF-level talents. Of course every decade has some might-have-been stories ... but unless I missed somebody, the only HoF pitchers on the 89 teams were Smoltz in his first AS game at age 22 and Ryan in his last at age 42 -- that kinda says it all.

EDIT: I'll add that Clemens had made the team in 86 and 88; Maddux also in 88 but you get the idea ... Ryan (and Blyleven) were the last of their generation, the new generation of HoFers had arrived but there's mostly a gaping hole in the middle.

I'd probably be in more agreement with "Judge has had trouble staying on the field, those guys don't age well, he's unlikely to ever get enough PA for a strong HoF case" which is sort of implied in his mentioning that he has just 188 HR. But then he says he thinks Stanton will squeak over the line -- a huge guy with more injuries (but a much earlier start).

I think Stanton is in much better shape than Judge - he's got nearly twice as many homers, to begin with. He's two years older, but he was a good hundred homers ahead of Judge two years ago. He's also got an MVP, which Judge doesn't have so far.

The problem for Judge isn't even that guys like him don't age well. It's that given his late start, he needs to age well to reach any impressive career totals.

Was there any note of roster size in the old All Star games to today's games.

Pujols and Miggy were shoehorned in, but wouldn't have been in past years, so this year's number of HOFers should be higher than average. So add, Trea Turner and Ohtani?

Really, it's the obvious ones and then some of these guys *waves vaguely in the direction of the all-star rosters*. One or two of McClanahan, Manoah, Kirk, Rodriguez, Chisholm, Alcantara will probably make it. Good luck guessing which ones though.

Nitpick: such exercises are always a little off because VCs keep adding guys to the HoF. That 89 only had 11 HoFers until the VC added Harold Baines of all people. I'm not willing to bet on any of them individually but I think history suggests a couple of these folks from 1989 will eventually make it: McGwire, Will Clark, Reuschel, Randolph, Hershiser, Mattingly. They'll never make it up to the average 18 -- the 80s were a HoF drag in general -- but the "true" average HoFers on a AS team is probably more like 19-20 than 18.

I was thinking the same thing (although I would include the hof ped denied players in that count, so even a couple beyond that just because my thinking is more in line hof worthy/hof bound is a thing)

Was there any note of roster size in the old All Star games to today's games.

I think that in todays environment, the roster size is mostly going to show up in relievers anyway, so it's probably not an issue. No reliever is going into the hof from this era, and more relievers are getting invited to the all star game. The 18-22 number for current hofers on the roster does feel like it tracks to history to an extent.

I do think he probably should have considered a few more players (maybe make the list 25 or so with some honorable mentions) and he doesn't have nearly enough pitchers. And that might because the better pitchers didn't make the all star team like they might have in the past. I guess it's hard to justify Greinke, Scherzer or Sale for this year's all star game and the starting position leads itself to people doubting continue dominance for young ptchers... so I can see the why this particular list is a bit top heavy on batters.

I'm glad someone chose this article from MLB to highlight instead of the really poorly decided article on 'ranking' the top 50 all stars, which is just idiotic in it's very nature.

I have no problem with the methodology or logic behind the guesses. they seem OK to me. And still probably half of them will be wrong.

#2, I agree that Stanton has the better chance right now but his logic doesn't make a lot of sense. Stanton indeed is way ahead of Judge but Stanton also has only 102 HRs for the Yanks in 5 seasons. Now that includes 2020 but he still managed to miss 60% of that season. His stated concern about Judge is "huge guys don't usually age well" so why would we expect the huge Stanton to pick up the HR pace in his mid-30s?

Judge of course hasn't been the healthiest guy either but at least he's at 132 HRs over the last 5 years. He's also put up a 153 OPS+ to Stanton's 134 and a whopping 7 WAR/650 vs 3.6 WAR/650 so it's pretty clear Judge is the better, healthier player right now -- but probably not by nearly enough to catch Stanton in career stats. Judge will probably look much better in rate stats though and might give him a good run in WAR. Note, Stanton needs about 3200 more PA without further decline to reach 63 career WAR. Judge also gets there in about 3200 PA with no decline.

But sure, Judge's case would be helped a lot if he wins the MVP this year. He'll get a big fame boost with the next contract ... which of course will become an infamy boost if it's a bust but, if it's a bust, he won't put up the HoF numbers. Anyway, Judge's chances aren't great, I think he's right about that. And if he does make it, he'll make it more as the "clean McGwire" with a low number of PAs (and nowhere near Mac's HR totals).

5. On more players, yes, I think though it is easy to justify Scherzer; he's having a great year; made only 10 starts, but been fantastic. Kershaw has only made 11 starts; been great; but Scherzer's been even better (in 1 inning less). As much as I dig Greinke, unfortunately, would agree difficult to justify. Hopefully, turns it around in 2nd half.

Also great to see another Tanana reference; The Top Banana (makes me want to see the Phil Silvers musical).

Add also would be justifiable to add Wainwright to the team on the merits (having a nice year, may get the win against LA tonight)/as an honor

No win for Wainwright tonight; nice start to shut out LA for 5+

I'm not sure this is true. Leaving aside getting hung up on the definition of huge ... Ortiz, Stargell, Frank Thomas, Cruz, McCovey, Winfield.. Sure there's Boog and Mo and a number of others but those guys weren't really in this class of hitter.

The only guy I can think of who's truly comparable to Judge in terms of "hugeness" is Frank Howard, and he had his last good year at age 34.

Howard certainly wasn't as athletic as Judge and was a much, much worse defensive player, but he also got off to a late start (he was Rookie of the Year at age 23 but had his first 120-game season at age 25) and his offensive numbers are kinda similar:

Frank Howard, ages 25-30: .271/.338/.490, OPS+ 138, 708 K, 158 HR
Aaron Judge, ages 25-30: .281/.387/.569, OPS+ 157, 785 K, 184 HR

Howard then had monster years at ages 31-33 and a pretty good year at age 34, was a part-timer at 35 and 36 (injuries?), then was done.

From age 31 to the end of his career, Howard had 184 HR and a 157 OPS+ in 827 games. If Judge can replicate that (especially with an MVP this year), it might be sufficient to get him into the HOF. His counting numbers will of course be low (probably below 400 HR, depending on how the rest of 2022 goes) but an OPS+ of around 155 over 1500 games/6500 PA would have him in the vicinity of Hank Greenberg, Dick Allen, Johnny Mize, and Ralph Kiner, with more defensive value than all of them (but without WWII credit).

I guess it's hard to justify Greinke, Scherzer or Sale for this year's all star game

This is partly the speculation I made about whether this was a sign that Cabrera might retire at the end of the year. Greinke's had a very up and down season, isn't under contract for next year ... he can probably get a contract with somebody next year if he wants one even if the year ends more down than up but, barring inside knowledge, Miggy is more likely to be available as next year's "ceremonial old fart" pick.

I just think you should only be "ceremonial old fart" once and you should be pretty darn sure the guy's retiring (hopefully he's announced it). But you also have the problem that there will be plenty of times when there might be a few possibilities -- Miggy, Greinke and Verlander (39) in the AL; Pujols, Cruz, Wainwright, Yadi in the NL -- while there's also a pretty good chance that all except Yadi and Pujuls will be back (and I won't be surprised if Pujols tries). And of course you'd hate to miss out on Verlander if he blows his arm out again in Aug and is done. Arguably you require them to have announced their retirement to qualify.

But of course this is just a way they hope to draw a few more eyeballs so Manfred will have no problem picking 4 guys next year (it's not like the union will actually object). And that's fine with me, it's just an exhibition, is Luke Appling still alive? :)

Miggy is more likely to be available as next year's "ceremonial old fart" pick.

I believe the preferred term is “All-Star Emeritus”.

There's no need to ALWAYS have an "All-Star Emeritus." I mean adding Pujols this year makes tons of sense. Dude has been a truly great player, first ballot Hall, etc...but most years it's not going to be a thing.

The 180 HR edge Stanton has on Judge is banked.

The "through age X" stuff doesn't matter for a guy with an injury history like Judge, who also got to the majors late.

It seems unlikely at this point that Stanton won't get to 500 HR. Even accounting for injuries down the line, unless he has something career ending, he'll almost certainly cobble together another 130 or so. Judge is going to have to work at it — like he will for all his stats

So...favorite All Star game/weekend ever? Mine's gotta be 1999; the All Century team festivities and gathering (capped off by Ted Williams emotional return to Fenway), newly crowned single season HR champ Mark McGwire's epic homerun derby binge (that performance has been surpassed several times since, but at the time it felt pretty historic), and of course Pedro's dominant Carl Hubbell impression in front of the hometown fans, striking out Hall of Famers (or woulda been HOFers sans PED's) Larkin, Walker, McGwire, Sosa, and Bagwell.

To bring it back to the article's subject matter, that game was also filled with star power, featuring 18 current HOFers (Pedro, Pudge, Thome, Alomar, Ripken, Griffey, Piazza, Larkin, Walker, Bagwell, Vlad, Gwynn, Hoffman, Unit, Jeter, Baines, Mussina, and Rivera), plus a whopping 7 more who would have made it if they weren't snubbed for non statistical reasons (and Bonds, Clemens, and ARod weren't even selected that season!): Ramirez, Palmeiro, McGwire, Sosa, Schilling, Sheffield, and Vizquel (I wouldn't vote for him, but he was on a clear HOF voting trajectory before the DV allegations sunk him). Then there's a few more guys of varying worthiness who nevertheless might have a shot with a future VC (Lofton, Kent, Wagner, Bernie Williams).

Good stuff.

Time will tell with Judge, but it doesn’t take that many 50 HR/MVP-caliber seasons to get to the Hall. Health could be an issue, but he looks to have improved his chances this season (to date). There’d be a bit less wear & tear if Judge goes back to playing mostly RF, which could be in the cards by next season. Not a lock, but could be before too long - it’s not that much of a stretch for him to hit 100 HRs over 2 seasons, so he can potentially rack up a lot of HoF credentials in a short time, IF he can stay on the field.

but most years it's not going to be a thing.

I disagree, I think it's likely to become a regular thing. That's kinda one of the dangers of making it official. We already have obvious candidates for next year (Verlander & Scherzer if nobody else). Kershaw shortly after that. Look back through history -- pretty much anybody with 3000 hits or 500 HRs would get it, most obviously any first-ballot HoFer. It doesn't have to work that way but you reach a point where not naming Player X the COF is ... not quite insulting but a clear statement of "you were not as good as Player Y."

They've obviously started it off well and nobody will be insulted by "you were not as good as Pujols or Cabrera." I'm sure there will be years when nobody is named just as there are years with no significant HoF ballot debuts. The next Rich Hill will never make it no matter how old he gets. But I suspect before long, the next Jack Morris will be a COF, Baines, maybe Moyer.

Not a bad thing as long as they don't take it too far. Most HoF votes have at least one first-ballot induction and/or somebody who comes close, I don't see a problem with those guys being COFs in their last season.

We already have obvious candidates for next year (Verlander & Scherzer if nobody else). Kershaw shortly after that.

Kershaw is only 34! It's like saying Paul Goldschmidt is next in line.

Joey Votto is a good choice for next year.

The big problem with the bonus player in the ASG due to future HOF status is this 'need' to balance the teams - in truth it should've just been Pujols this year as Miggy is playing next year. Should only be guys who have said they are in their final season and if you only have 1 then so be it - let one team have that extra hitter or pitcher. It is a bloody exhibition game so who cares if one has an extra player?

As to future HOF'ers we all know some of the kiddie core will get there but who? Impossible to say as we don't know who will get hurt, who will get fat, etc. Right now guys like Shohei Ohtani, Vlad Guerrero, Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, all appear to be on HOF paths but it is far, far too soon to know for sure. Others like Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Aaron Judge, and Jose Ramirez have decent resume's but aren't there yet and need a good late career to make it but again, who will have that? Impossible to know right now, although some teams have obviously bet on it with many debating if they want to bet heavy on it with Judge this winter. Check up in 10 years and you'll have a far better idea.

2010's had Albert Pujols, Ichiro Suzuki, Derek Jeter, Miguel Cabrera, Vladimir Guerrero Sr, Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, Mariano Rivera, all 8 locks or in already. But A-Rod ain't getting in anytime soon, David Wright in 2010 looked like a strong possibility at age 27 but had lots of injuries after and will only get pity votes now - despite a 128 OPS+ just 628 more hits and 73 HR. Ryan Howard likewise looked like a strong possibility then (253 HR through 2010 his age 30 season, just 129 after). Things change quickly. Just the way baseball is.

For the extreme good post 30 look at Randy Johnson - through age 30 he had 81 wins, 1330 K's 0 Cy's, 3 ASG - from 31 to the end he had 222 wins 3545 K's and 5 Cy Youngs 7 ASG's.
For the extreme bad look at Andruw Jones - through age 30 he had a 114 OPS+ 1683 H 368 HR, 10 Gold Gloves, 5 ASG. From 31-end 95 OPS+, 250 H 66 HR, 0 GG, 0 ASG.

Who in this years class will be a Johnson and who will be a Jones?

#11 ... like I said, depends on what we mean by "huge." So sure, we could define "huge" as nobody but Howard and Judge. But if we have only Howard to compare to, we have zero predictive power as to how Judge will age. But y'know ... most directly relevant, Stanton is 6-6. Frank Thomas was 6-5 and broad as a house ... Winfield wasn't so broad but was 6-5 ... McCovey was 6-4 and let's say he "filled out" over time ... same with Boog. The other guys I mentioned weren't particularly tall (6-2, 6-3) but they weighed a lot.

To be clear, I'm not saying the claim is incorrect. I'd like to see somebody do an analysis on aging and size (maybe BMI, maybe just height, maybe both to get at "huge"). But there are a few things we know -- most players decline substantially around ages 34-36 (in terms of either skill or durability) and there have been plenty of large players who have aged quite well. (And of course nobody was more athletic than Mantle or Griffey.) It's certainly possible that latter number is lower than what we'd expect from similar but smaller players but I don't know that it is.

But then further, I see no reason to think that Judge will age worse than Stanton. If the writer is going to make a point about aging and size for a huge guy who's 30, they should also make it about a huge guy who's 32. They can still conclude that the 32-yo has a big enough lead that he's the better bet for 500 (agreed) but acknowledge that Stanton will likely only squeak over.

Stanton and 500: It seemed unthinkable at the time of the trade but his chances at 500 don't look particularly good right now. Again, in his 4.5 years as a Yankee, he's hit just 103 HR ... and 38 of those were in year 1. That's an average of 22-23 per year. So he needs 6 more years like that to squeak over. Obviously he could achieve that by repeating the last few years or by staying healthier and not declining too much or by playing even better when healthy but being equally fragile. But ages 33-38 aren't usually very kind to skill levels or playing time and the contract ends in 5 years.

Now I'll guess it's actually pretty likely the playing time will increase. He's been pretty healthy for the last 1.5 seasons. And if we were to project playing time, we'd use a mix of past playing time and regression to the mean which, in Stanton's case, would increase the history-only projection. There's not much doubt that if Stanton can add another 2600 or so PA that he will make it to 500 HRs (a decline to a 5% HR rate from his career 6.3%) -- that's also a bit of a tautology because if the HR rate fell off badly enough that he would need more than 2600 or so PA to make it that nobody will want to give him those PAs even if he's healthy.

2600 PA is 4 full-time seasons ... in 5.5 seasons if he wants to wrap this up before the contract ends. (There is an option with a big buyout paid by the Marlins so the marginal cost to the Yanks is just $15 M for age 37 so that's possible.) From ages 26-31, allowing 2020 to play the role of the half-season, he had 2612 PA at ages 26-31. Can we expect him to have more playing time ages 31.5 to 37 than from 26-31? Then sure, for age 38, he might be in the McGriff basket which, as McGriff knows, is no guarantee there will be a team willing to give you the PAs you need.

If Stanton is healthy enough for 3200+ PA over the next 6.5 seasons then sure he's pretty much a lock for 500 HRs.

Judge and the HoF: Greenberg is a reasonable comp as a player but not as a HoF candidate. That was a long time ago and, even setting aside WW2, the voters have been reluctant to induct short-career guys (as the rest of your list shows). Johnny Mize was a VC induction; Kiner got in on his 10th ballot on the strength of 7 straight HR titles; Allen of course still not in. It is the path he's going to have to take though -- as I said, he's a powerful Larry Walker. It will be a much easier path if this year is the first of 2-3 MVP years. I'll grant you, Judge might end up with 60 WAR in 6000 PA which probably will impress the writers enough to put him in.

But ... Edmonds with 60 WAR in 8000 PA, 393 HR, 8 GGs in CF got only 2.5% of the votes. Crowded ballot or not, that's a tough crowd. Judge will have TEH FEAR and "felt like an HoFer" boosts.

Seems odd to have an article about how many Hall of Famers will play in L.A., and then include players who are injured and will not play in L.A. (e.g., Bryce Harper).

#19 ... First I said Kershaw "shortly after that" -- that doesn't necessarily mean 2024. But it could well be ... man's not exactly a paragon of health. 22 starts last year, on pace for 22 this year, even the Dodgers only went 1 year, hasn't topped 28 starts since 2015. He's of course still fantastic when healthy so he'll obviously get chances for the next couple of years.

Once upon a time, Pedro was only turning 34 coming off 217 innings of 146 ERA+. He had just 314 innings of 94 ERA+ left in his arm and his last season was age 37. At age 34, Halladay put up 234 innings of 163 ERA+, 2nd place CYA (to Kershaw); his last season was age 36 with 218 innings of a 77 ERA+. Santana couldn't even make it to 34; Sale's future looks quite un-rosy; Cliff Lee had 222 innings of 131 ERA+ at 34 with a last season of 35.

Sure, for all I know Kershaw is about to find his inner Unit or re-invent himself as the next CC (age 38) or even Moyer. With the new usage, maybe 22 starts and 90 innings is enough to hold a job. But I don't expect to see him on the mound at age 40.

Anyway, neither here nor there with regard to my prediction the COF slots. Certainly any future 1st-ballot guy will get a COF slot (if they need it) and I suspect any "will do pretty well in HoF voting" player will be in at least serioud consideration for a COF slot. And we have at least one of those nearly every year. Obviously that will depend on whether the guy is playing well enough to deserve it anyway (or was voted in) as well as how many candidates there are.

We can start with simple questions -- if not for Cabrera, do you think they would have picked Greinke? Ortiz (deserving), Rivera (deserving) and Jeter (vote) didnj't need it but do we really think Ichiro wouldn't have gotten one at some point? Griffey at least once over 2008-10? Hoffman in 2010? Edgar in 2004? They named awards after Hoffman and Edgar.

And ... what are they going to do next year if Miggy is still playing?

Now there is the issue of the coming dearth of good HoF candidates (therefore a dearth of good COF candidates six years prior). Per my search on fangraphs, there appear to be just 24 qualified position players aged 33+. Miggy is the only lock (note, it doesn't include Pujols, Votto or other older, non-qualified batters). The next best candidates are ... Goldschmidt, McCutchen (2 MVPs), Cruz, Abreu, JDM and Donaldson, probably in that order and I don't think any of them have a particularly good shot at it except via "we gotta vote for somebody."

Apparently there are only 10 qualified starters 33+ (does not incl Scherzer, Kershaw, Greinke). Verlander obviously and Wainwright maybe and ... Kluber (heck of a peak)? Darvish?

So sure, there are a few easy selections starting in 2028 for 3-4 years after that. By the time those guys are being elected, Goldschmidt will be retiring and probably solid if he hangs on that long. And maybe Kershaw will be just retiring as Greinke is elected. But looks to me like there's gonna be a few years there between the election of Scherzer/Verlander/Kershaw(?) and the emergence of the Betts/Trout generation without 1st-ballot guys. (For example, Stanton probably doesn't hit the HoF ballot until 2033 at the earliest; 2036 if he's playing at 40) Maybe I'm overlooking some guys but there don't appear to be many good backlog type candidates either.

If Trout plays out his contract (age 38), he's on the 2036 ballot. If Betts does (age 39), that's 2038. If Judge gets at least 7 years, then retires, that's 2035 (with poor counting stats). Arenado probably around 2036; Machado a couple years later. That's great news for McCutchen, Wainwright, Greinke, Votto.

I hope I'm forgetting some:

2028 Pujols, Yadi, Greinke?, Wainwright?
2029 Miggy, Votto (2023 NL COF), Greinke, Wainwright, McCutchen?
2030-3033 Verlander, Scherzer, Kershaw, McCutchen (those are "at some point 2030-33"), Goldschmidt? (at the end maybe)

Looks to me like 2033-35 is gonna be pretty fallow in terms of new candidates. There might be a flotilla of relievers I suppose -- who cares really? On McCutchen, he's only 35 but with a 101 OPS+. That's good enough for somebody to give him a shot next year and he could maintain at this level for a number of years. Or he could put up a 80 OPS+ next year and be done. Probably the earlier Goldschmidt (signed through 24, age 36) hits the ballot, the less likely his candidacy.

Grrr... sorry, Stanton's guarantee runs through age 37 with an option for age 38. But I did do the math correctly that there's 5.5 years left on the guaranteed bit.

You didn't mention Cano, who is fully qualified but God knows what the voters will do with him.

#26 - Based on past precedent, I think we all know damn well what the voters will do with Cano (leave him to twist in the wind on the ballot for the full 10 years but make no progress and never come close to election).

#24 - Unless a bunch of the top players fall off a cliff, the 2010's look pretty normal regarding the number of potential HOFers who debuted. But yeah, the 2000's were historically weak, and we're going to start seeing some awfully thin ballots soon because of it. I've posted the count before (too lazy to do it again), but the number of 60 WAR players who debuted in the 2000's was something like 10-12 players less than it was in every other modern decade (1960's-1990's).

I didn't forget Cano so much as assume he has no chance. Sosa never got anywhere. ARod is getting nowhere. Bonds & Clemens never really made a move other than because of the purge. Post-testing poster boy Manny has 6 votes under his belt, advancing from 24% to 28%. There's zero reason to think Cano will do anything but eat up a few votes ... and given how un-crowded the ballots will be, that won't matter.

Post 30 Beltre, Molitor and Schilling (put politics aside) how much HOF buzz before age 30? Maybe a bit for Beltre in his walk year in LA, but he certainly seemed on the downside of his career until going to Boston on the 1 year deal. Molitor stayed healthy, played more DH; Schilling, found himself more consistent; had an excellent year at 25.

RE post 24, what does the "two mvp's" refer to? McCutchen has one (I don't think Lawrence had one in the NFL). Goldschmidt does not. Goldschmidt could keep putting together years like his current (excess of half a year) one which is better than anything he's done before. Or, of course, he could fall apart.

Also, was McCuthcen good enough for the hall of fame, career wise? He has a pretty short career, as of right now playing less games career than Mike Piazza.

Any chance Matt Carpenter makes the all star team? He only had a HR + walk tonight scored 2 runs in a losing effort.

Eh, shoulda checked. For some reason I thought McCutchen won back-to-back MVPs; instead his win was sandwiched by two thirds. And sure somebody who doesn't look like a HoFer now will put together a late surge (JDM as good a candidate as any; or Goldschmidt; basically one of these guys might pull an Ortiz).

Was McCutchen good enough for the HoF career-wise? Certainly not under normal circumstances. But they will have slim pickings. Will voting be dominated by a bunch of ballots with just 1-3 names on them? Or will the average ballot still hang around at least 5-6 names? I suspect the latter so votes gotta go somewhere. I don't really expect enough to flow to any single player such that they make it across the line but somebody like McCutchen I suspect will stay on the ballot with a healthy vote total. That will probably put him on the VC radar. He does have that excellent 5-year peak with 31 WAR to point to at least.

That said, I thought Hunter would do much better than he has (barely cleared 5% this year) and Helton (and Rolen!) much worse. Shows what I know.

It will be interesting to see how the VC handles the 80s and whether Baines has cracked the dam. Nobody's gonna go too far down the "better than Baines" road but how in the world do you have a HoF with Baines but not 2-time MVP Dale Murphy? Anyway, 30 years from now, they'll be in the same boat and the Manfred Era VC will feel obligated to pick somebody. That might eventually be Goldschmidt or McCutchen.

30 What's Martinez going to do? Put together 5 more years equivalent to 2018 or 2019? If he went over 500 hr, maybe; also has no narrative (unlike Ortiz); no MVP's; no batting milestones; for the modernists he's under 30 WAR at age 34. I'll take the under.

Goldschmidt; no narrative (maybe an MVP this year, although way too early to tell; maybe gets into the series); for the modernists; 55 WAR at 34; borderline out (absent narrative); could cliff dive or put together 4 more all star years (5 WAR/yearly) and be in

McCutchen 35 years old hasn't played at an All Star level in 7 years; doesn't look to improve. Seem to remember he strained something in his chest/back and was never the same player; or he just aged rapidly. No milestones; some narrative (1 MVP; but no WS). For career value/narrative I like Jimmy Rollins' chances better.

Matt Carpenter, 2 more HR today (game still in progress); 2 WAR in 29 games (not including tonight); add him to the team

JDM through 34: 134 OPS+, 275 HR, 28 WAR, 987 postseason OPS, 1 ring
DAO through 34: 135 OPS+, 349 HR, 33 WAR, ??? through 34 but less than 987 I think, 2 WS rings (both sweeps)

Ortiz's "narrative" wasn't so strong at age 34. He had been ALCS MVP once with 1 WS HR (in the 1st inning of game 1 of a 4-0 sweep). Ortiz ended up with 17 HR in 85 postseaason games which is mighty impressive; JDM had 9 in 30.

And what do you think we were saying about Ortiz back in 2010? We were saying stuff like "sure, maybe if he plays until he's 40 without declining, but how likely is that?" From 35-40, Ortiz put up a 154 OPS+ with 192 HR and 22.5 WAR. Ortiz also got in on the first ballot. If JDM does repeats that performance (unlikely) then he'll finish with 50 WAR, 450+ HR, another ring, a nearly 1000 postseason OPS. If the ballots are as think as I expect, that will look very good -- maybe not 1st ballot good but #2-4 in the backlog with 9 votes to go good.

Was my point not clear? None of the current mid-30s guys, except Kershaw, are a good bet to make the HoF. Nobody in the current backlog of HoFers will still be around (and viable) by the time Goldschmidt, JDM, etc hit the ballot. There also aren't a lot of good backlog candidates coming in the next 5 years. So there's gonna be a 4-5 year period when Kershaw might be the only slam-dunk candidate with no "maybes." If there's nobody else to vote for ...

Top returning candidates are Rolen (63%), Helton (52%) and Wagner (51%). All three will be gone one way or the other before Goldy, JDM and Cutch hit the ballot. Top debuts

2023 Beltran, Lackey (37 WAR)
2024 Beltre, Mauer, Utley, David Wright (49 WAR), Colon (45)
2025 Ichiro, CC, Pedroia (52)
2026 Hamels (59) ... who's proposing a comeback

Beltran will get in unless there's strong anti-trashcan bias. Regardless his last ballot will be 2032 so he won't interfere much with GMC. Beltre will be an easy 1st ballot, I'm now thinking Mauer might be easy too, if not he'll go in no later than 2026. Utley is a mystery. Ichiro easy first, CC might take a while.

Was there anybody viable whose last season was 2021? I've guessed 2028, etc. above. By 2032-33, the backlog is gonna be, what, ... Utley, Wright, Pedroia, Wainwright, Cutch with the top new candidates G & M & Kluber (and an easy Kershaw). And it doesn't look like it gets any better until Trout et al start hitting the ballot maybe around 2036. If Ortiz had debuted on a ballot like what I foresee for 2033-35, he'd have gotten 85%.

We all know the HoF isn't a strict numbers game. Guys without the numbers get in for all sorts of reasons but a key part of backlog advancement is weak ballots -- if you were the 5th-best player on the ballot last year but are the third-best this year, you'll get a boost. Let's look at the 80s-related drought

1996: nobody elected but Neikro, Perez and Sutton make nice advances that make it pretty clear they will get in. The #4 candidate is Garvey.

1997: Niekro in, Sutton and Perez close, Santo is 4th with some late-ballot love

1998: Sutton in, Perez still waiting, Santo and Jim Rice tied at 43%. Jim Rice, you see where I'm coming from.

1999: Ryan, Brett, Yount and Fisk debut. Three in, Fisk close, everybody else down or stalled. This is what will happen in those years with Pujols, Cabrera, Verlander, Scherzer, especially if any hit the ballot in the same year.

2000: Fisk and Perez in. Jim Rice cracks 50%, Sutter and Gossage 5th-6th.

2001: Winfield and Puckett first ballot. Mattingly debuts at 9th. Carter passes Rice.

2002: Ozzie in, Carter and Rice build, Sutter cracks 50%, Dawson debuts at 45%

2003: Murray, Carter in; Sutter, Rice, Dawson at 50%.

2004: Molitor, Eck, Sandberg pretty much stall everybody else but Eck busts down the closer door.

2005: Boggs, Sandberg, Sutter closing in

2006: Sutter in. Rice, Gossage, Dawson all over 60%.

2007: Ripken, Gwynn in, stall everybody

2008-10: Gossage then Rice then Dawson (with Blyleven at 74%).

In 2010, Alomar, Larkin and Edgar entered, creating a backlog that was pretty darn good. Then Bagwell. Then ballotgeddon.

So in that valley, there were still a decent number of no-doubters but it still saw the election of Perez, Sutton, Sutter, Rice, Gossage, Dawson -- some of the weakest HoFers no matter how much I love Dawson. Players don't have 15 years anymore of course and, even if they did, it's obviously not certain that an ageless JDM would fare any better than Garvey or Murphy or whoever. If things work out right, maybe there would only be a period where inductees go something like Greinke 2032, Utley 2033, nobody 2034, somebody very borderline 2035, Trout 2036, Betts etc. to follow. And if it gets Utley elected in 2033, that won't be a bad thing.

So yes, if JDM or Goldschmidt (or less likely McCutchen) pulls off a late 30s Ortiz then they have a good shot to be that "somebody very borderline." So does Wainwright. But if I was the HoF, I'd make sure the VC is churning out inductees in the first half of the 2030s.

EDIT: I wouldn't write off Salvador Perez yet either.

Was there anybody viable whose last season was 2021?

Buster Posey

2023 Beltran, Lackey (37 WAR)
2024 Beltre, Mauer, Utley, David Wright (49 WAR), Colon (45)
2025 Ichiro, CC, Pedroia (52)
2026 Hamels (59) ... who's proposing a comeback

There's going to be a few lean years resulting from the dearth of worthy candidates who debuted in the 2000's for sure, but luckily the 2010-2015 debuts (it's too early to make predictions beyond that) don't look particularly weak (except with pitchers), so I don't think it'll be as bad as the 2000's were regarding questionable selections. Posey will hit the ballot in 2027, Pujols (and Cano! ;-) in 2028, Cabrera in 2029. Molina will hang it up soon (K, depending on your POV, he might qualify as a borderline to weak-ish pick). Greinke is 38 and looking toasty; any season could be his last. Votto is done, and his last guaranteed season is next year, so he could be hitting the ballot in 2029. Verlander and Scherzer are still awesome, but they're also 39 and 38, so you never know. You mentioned Kershaw (34) and Trout (30), but between them you have Freeman, Altuve, and Stanton (all 32, as is the aforementioned Sal Perez, who I agree is a decent darkhorse candidate), Nolan Arenado (31), and maybe Gerrit Cole (31). Right after Trout we have Betts, Machado, Harper, and Jose Ramirez who are all within 6 months of each other, already 30 or turning 30 later this year. Longer shots, but I wouldn't write off Sale (33) or deGrom (34) just yet either; standards for pitchers are going to have to be adjusted and they have a valid peak argument if they could just add some bulk.

I also think y'all are underrating Goldschmidt. His counting stats will be a little low for a HOF 1B, but no one gets high hit or RBI totals anymore. He's already at 55 WAR, so he'll likely finish at around 58 by the end of the season. Even with an epic cliff dive he should be able to crack 60; a more gradual decline and he'll be in the 65-70 range. He might win an MVP this season and he's got other finishes of 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 6th, and 11th. Another silver slugger this year would be his 5th; he's also a 7 time all star and 4 time gold glover. I think he gets in without the voters having to settle.

I also think y'all are underrating Goldschmidt.

Agreed. I don't really get why people are so low on Goldschmidt.

His WAR7 of 42.3 is smack in between Thome (41.5) and Cabrera (44.8) and will probably increase given the year he's having, which is already the 7th best of his career.

His career total is 55.4. Todd Helton's is 61.8, and he's going to be elected in the next two seasons. Barring some major drop off (essentially a career ending injury), there's almost no way he won't get to Helton levels. How does any modern inclined voter justify voting for Helton and not Goldschmidt?

As for traditionalists, ge's got more black ink and has done better in MVP voting. 7x AS, 5 GGs, both more than Helton. He'll almost certainly have more HR. He's going to have a better career than Helton, at the end

Are you seriously suggesting that Adam Wainwright has a chance to be a Hall of Famer? Chuck Finely has a better case than Wainwright and got 0.2%. I would be shocked and appalled if Wainwright cleared the 5% to see a second ballot.

Are you seriously suggesting that Adam Wainwright has a chance to be a Hall of Famer? Chuck Finely has a better case than Wainwright and got 0.2%. I would be shocked and appalled if Wainwright cleared the 5% to see a second ballot.

I don't know if anyone is suggesting he'll seriously get in, but as a one team player with a strong bench/people skills reputation and several top 3 finishes in the Cy he'll probably be viewed a little more favorable than Finley, simply because he's going to be on weaker ballots.

Hof Monitor has Wainwright at 87 (average hofer 100) while Finley was at 54.
Hof Standards has Wainwright at 40(average hof = 50) while Finley is at 27. These are numbers that measure how the voters traditionally vote when it's all said and done. (And Wainwright will probably go up a bit when this season is done, although it doesn't look like he'll reach 200 wins-- but that would only up his monitor four more points)

Wainwright isn't retiring after this season, so 200 wins is pretty much a lock at this point in time, he's putting up similar rate numbers this year as he did last, so it isn't completely unreasonable that he sticks around a couple of more seasons racking up average numbers.

#36 - re: Wainwright

He's not a HOFer and I don't think he'll come close to getting in, but "shocked and appalled" if he even see's a 2nd ballot? Come on, man. He's not a ridiculous candidate. ;-) He really does have a lot of narrative going for him that could appeal to certain types of voters. He'll likely finish with about 50 WAR and 200 wins. Currently a .629 winning %, 3.34 ERA (120 ERA+). Two 20 win seasons (plus two more 19's). He's got black ink (wins twice, starts twice, CG 3 times, shutouts twice, innings twice), a peak that included 4 top 3 CYA finishes in 6 years. 1 team player, pitched in 2 World Series (won 1), good postseason performance (2.83 ERA in 114 IP). Solid all around game with 2 gold gloves and a silver slugger (10 career HR!). Again, I don't think he'll gain much momentum and make a serious run at getting elected, but as long as he plays another year and passes 200 wins, I don't think he'll be one and done, either. I could see that not unrealistic, hypothetical version of Wainwright pulling a Mattingly/Concepcion and hanging around on the ballot at 15% for the duration.

With four 6+ WAR, CYA contending seasons, Waino didn't really even need a longer peak to be a worthy HOF candidate; he just needed more positive bulk seasons similar to his 2007-2008 or 2021-2022. He missed the Cards 2011 championship season entirely (another WS appearance on his resume couldn't have hurt), and then produced a 93 ERA+ and just 4.3 pitching WAR total from 2015-2019. Even just average filler seasons in those years and he may have been a legit borderline candidate.

Wainwright having a candidacy is silly. Only the most Cardinal-colored glasses thinks that.

He has 47 bWAR and a 120 ERA+. Wainright has zero Cy Young awards. He's got one ring. To compare recent pitchers on the ballot:

Roy Oswalt got one and doned with 50 and a 127
Johan got one and doned with 51.7 and a 136, and two CYs
Tim Hudson got dropped off after 2 ballots with 57.9 and a 123
Buehrle is at 5.8% in year two with 59.1 and a 117

HOF monitor 87? HOF standards 40? That's exactly the same as David Wells. Wells had 239 wins, 53.5 bWAR, 0 CYs and two rings. Hey look, another one and done!

What about David Cone? 194 wins, 121 ERA+, a Cy, 5 rings, 103 Hall monitor, 39 Hall standards. Guess what? Another one and done!

I'm sure we'll hear a lot of nonsense about whatever obscure record he holds with Yadi, and how that means something super duper special. And a whole bunch of people will make "If he played in New York..." strawmen arguments while ignoring the fates of Cone and Wells, who actually did pitch there. But there's no world in which he's actually a strong candidate

His career total is 55.4. Todd Helton's is 61.8, and he's going to be elected in the next two seasons. Barring some major drop off (essentially a career ending injury), there's almost no way he won't get to Helton levels. How does any modern inclined voter justify voting for Helton and not Goldschmidt?

As for traditionalists, ge's got more black ink and has done better in MVP voting. 7x AS, 5 GGs, both more than Helton. He'll almost certainly have more HR. He's going to have a better career than Helton, at the end

Goldschmidt could very end up with a better career that Votto (64.5 WAR) too, and I think Joey V is generally considered a future HOFer.

#39 - I'm not a Cardinals fan, and like I said, I don't think Wainwright will come close to getting elected. I just think he's got enough "hook"/accomplishments that he won't be one and done, either. The pure SABR/WAR voters won't give him the time of day and rightfully so, but I think he could muster up the support of at least 10% of the other voters and stick around. And it depends on when he retires, of course. If he hits the ballot with Verlander/Scherzer/Greinke, then of course he's toast right out of the box.

Goldschmidt could very end up with a better career than Votto (64.5 WAR) too, and I think Joey V is generally considered a future HOFer.

To respond to myself:

JV (age 38) - 2078 H, 1138 R, 337 HR, 1095 RBI, .299/.414/.515 (146 OPS+), 64.5 WAR/38.8 WAA, 6 AS selections, 0 (!) silver sluggers, 1 gold glove, 6 top 10 MVP finishes: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 6th, 7th
PG (age 34) - 1684 H, 1003 R, 300 HR, 997 RBI, .295/.391/.525 (144 OPS+), 55.5 WAR/34.8 WAA, 7 AS selections, 5* silver sluggers, 4 gold gloves, 6 top 10 MVP finishes: 1-5*, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 6th

* Assuming this season

Votto gets the one team bonus and his 7 OBP titles are going to carry a lot of weight, but all Goldschmidt really needs is a few more decent seasons of bulk.

I know this discussion has mostly been about the writers, but after seeing Tony Oliva elected, I've come to the conclusion that eventually everybody who was a star will get into the hall of fame. It might take a while, and they might not live to see it (Hodges), but the VC is eventually going to put in everybody of note.

Freddie Freeman (AKA Eddie Murray) hasn't come up here, unless I've been reading too fast. He debuted one year before Goldschmidt, and my sense is that he's got more star power than Goldy does, even though he's not actually as good. The early start will also help him, he debuted a year earlier, but he's also two years younger.

#43 - I mentioned Freeman as a possible potential HOFer in #34. And yeah, I agree that he's basically the same player as Goldschmidt, and that both are basically the same player as peak Eddie Murray (I wouldn't bet on either of them approaching Eddie's career totals though).

Wainwright having a candidacy is silly. Only the most Cardinal-colored glasses thinks that.

I'll flat out state, I've never once heard of anyone saying "future hofer Wainwright"... Regardless of the color of their glasses. I know I have never said that, I've made comments in this thread and others about how he might be considered going forward, and comparing guys who were on the ballot in the early ballot crowded years is a bit disingenuous when talking one and done. And of course Wainwright still has probably two more seasons to pitch. So more than likely over 50 career war.

There's another world in which a healthier Wainwright makes the hall of fame. But of course you can say that for lots of guys.

And of course Wainwright still has probably two more seasons to pitch. So more than likely over 50 career war.

1. If we include his hitting WAR
2. Assuming he doesn't go backwards, or just flatline. But he's had some bad seasons before.

1. If we include his hitting WAR
2. Assuming he doesn't go backwards, or just flatline. But he's had some bad seasons before.

Yep, but that was my fault, I didn't really pay attention to anything other than his career war and saw 46.9 and if I had thought about his batting war, I would have removed it and then would not have been nearly as confident about 50.

I thought Wainwright was retiring with Molina at the end of the season. Did I dream about reading that somewhere?
I could have sworn they were going to retire together. I would think both of them being on the ballot at the same time might help them both get votes.

Edit: I can't find anything to prove that, so I must be imagining.

I thought Wainwright was retiring with Molina at the end of the season. Did I dream about reading that somewhere?

Wainwright has been quite adamant he's still pitching next season.

hello boyz111

isn't it a lovely warm day? so toasty at a nice crisp 108 but it DOES make the dogz for some reason reluctant to go out and pee and i get that - gf you srsly gotta be shtttting me - look when i open up the door to the oven and point to the tree in plain sight then i gotta tell them dogz you be deaddd dogz you decide you rather pee on mah nice clean floor. but fortunately there is no climate change it is just all Da Libz hot air ovah nothing and why Those Peeple can't just use that hot air in the middle of winter i do NOT know

where was i before mah brain ovahheated

oh yes

Ithaca2323 Posted: July 17, 2022 at 01:51 PM (#6087054)
Wainwright having a candidacy is silly. Only the most Cardinal-colored glasses thinks that.

- are you serious

cmon, this is a guy who wins a silver slugger at age 35!!!!

how many other HOFers can claim that???

besides, he has a 129 ERA+ at age 40 and a lifetime 120 ERA+

jack EFF morris, the bottom of the HOF barrel, got in because of a Game 7 - well so should wainwright. HIS game 7 was een bettah because he struck out carlos EFF beltran staring at unca charlie 2 outs bottom of the 9th winning run on base. and if that is not HOF material RIGHT THERE i don't know what is.

you let the jack morrisses in, everyone above him, which to my count is like a couple dozen guys, hey, let em in (yeah this means cone and wells and steib and all them others you know who i mean. kevin brown, certainly. and roy-o. all that serious talks we used to have about Da Best is long since OVAH)