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Friday, May 15, 2020

MLB Announces Official Dates For Shortened 2020 Draft

The five rounds of the 2020 MLB draft will be held over two days, June 10 and June 11. Both days will be televised by MLB Network.

On June 10, the first 37 picks (the first round and the first competitive balance picks) will be announced, beginning at 7 p.m. ET.

On June 11, the remaining 123 picks (the second through fifth rounds) will be announced, beginning at 5 p.m. ET…..

Teams will be allowed to sign an unlimited number of nondrafted eligible players for up to $20,000, but there will be strict restrictions on talking to nondrafted players about signing during, or in the days immediately following, the draft. MLB went into detail to attempt to limit the possibilities of teams offering any sort of special inducement to convince a nondrafted player to sign.

According to MLB, teams will be prohibited from talking to nondrafted players until 9 a.m. ET on June 14. From the conclusion of the draft until that time, no team official or scout can talk to any undrafted players, their family members or any other representative of the player. While teams are allowed to talk to the player before or during the draft about the possibility of drafting that player, they are also not allowed to discuss the possibility of signing the player after the draft if he goes unpicked.

These undrafted players cannot be offered any special inducements beyond the standard player contract, modest contingency bonuses and scholarships through the continuing education program.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 15, 2020 at 02:06 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: May 15, 2020 at 04:54 PM (#5950918)
So since nobody can offer more than $20K for an undrafted player, and there is no limit to how many players a team can sign, then how does this not end up with the Yankees or Dodgers getting lots of players willing to take their $20K from the "marquee" teams or something...
   2. John Northey Posted: May 15, 2020 at 06:04 PM (#5950974)
I suspect many will want opportunity to climb quickly so going to a team with a set ML roster and tons of prospects will be unappealing. If they see a path to the majors with a club then that is worth more than having a NY on their uniform in the minors.
   3. Walt Davis Posted: May 15, 2020 at 06:48 PM (#5951000)
Hard to say how it will work. If you're only getting $20,000, then you'd want to sign with whoever offers the most likely/quickest path to real money. On the other hand, if you're not a top 5 round talent, your chances of ever making the majors and real money are slim to begin with so maybe you'd rather sign based on prestige or where you're likely to play or what have you.

Are colleges even handing out baseball scholarships for next year yet? Any HS player would be silly to turn down a scholarship in exchange for $20,000 but if the scholarship status is up in the air ...
   4. The Duke Posted: May 15, 2020 at 11:28 PM (#5951093)
I suspect for 20K a lot of decisions will be subjective like playing for the hometown team or a region you might want to end up in. Teams with low state taxes would be on my list. Same with quality of coaching, practice fields, training equipment and which minor leagues you might end up in geographically. Finally, the local scouting touch has never been so important. Houston fired all its scouts - there’s no one there to sell a player on the team.

Path to the majors will be big. A 6-10 draft choice will be buried in LA or NY. Why not try a Detroit or Cincinnati or KC where you can rise fast
   5. Walt Davis Posted: May 16, 2020 at 12:33 AM (#5951105)
1. You still don't rise that fast. 1 out of 5 make it, 1 out of 10 make it for a decent amount of time.** Go through the drafts and it's hard to see any pattern of time to the majors via quality of team (esp at time of signing -- these guys still usually aren't making it for another 3+ years, who knows what the Det or KC looks like then? (By the way, the Reds have gone back to trying to be an ML team it seems, not sure what they're soind in your list.)

2. And they still have no control over where they go after signing. Josh Harrison signed with the Cubs, wasn't particularly good but got traded to Pitt where he made it. Robbie Grossman was drafte by Pitt, got sent to Houston and broke through a couple years later. Richard Bleier was drafted by the Rangers, went to Tor 5 years later, went through the Nats, finally broke the majors with the Yanks of all teams in 2016. If you are "buried" in the Yanks system, you will get traded; if you're in the Pitt system, you might get tossed into a vet trade to the Yanks to even things out. (And are the Yanks or Dodgers systems supposed to be particularly packed right now?)

It probably does help a bit to pick such a team to sign with but it's surely much less important than finding some place where you'll get minor-league playing time, hopefully with good coaches. If anything, you want a quick path to AA and AAA -- 6th-10th rounders rarely have a "quick" path to the majors -- and right now that would be the Cubs as much as anybody. Jim Callis and seem to have gotten their farm system ranking out before the madness. The Padres are 2nd, Marlins 4th, Tigers 5th, Mariners 9th, Giants 10th. They've even got O's and Pitt in the top half. Yanks 22, Cubs 23, Astros 28, Nats 29, Brewers 30. Based on the writeup, sounds like the Yanks middle/upper minors are pretty bare at the moment so might be a great place to sign -- succeed at A and get a promotion, hang on at AA-AAA, then either you get an injury call-up or they flip you for an injury/mid-season replacement to some currently tanking team.

So I'd suggest the "optimal" path is to sign with a team with a weak A team in 2021, hope you're holding your own in AA no later than the 2nd half of 2022, then hope you are either on or get traded to a currently tanking team in 2023 .... or 2024 .... or 2025.

** I'm taking those from that SABR article from a couple of years ago linked here in the last week or so. But the 'make the majors" numbers reported there look low. For 2006-11 6th round, about 30% made the majors. On the other hand, 1/10 looks about right for getting past 1-2 years service time. But 1 day gets you health care and 43(?) days gets you a small pension which would make it all financially worthwhile for almost all of these guys.
   6. John Northey Posted: May 16, 2020 at 02:28 PM (#5951206)
In truth if you are after a career the smartest team to sign with is probably Tampa - they need a constant influx of talent as once anyone makes real money they trade them. Plus they need to build up kids no matter when drafted/signed since they need that talent flow.

The Yankees and other high revenue teams don't have the same need thus will be more focused on their top draft picks/international players so a guy who would've gone 6th round or later would get very little attention in theory.
   7. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 16, 2020 at 03:08 PM (#5951216)
A 6-10 draft choice will be buried in LA or NY. Why not try a Detroit or Cincinnati or KC where you can rise fast.
That doesn’t really follow. A perennial contender drafts 25-30 slots behind the also rans year after year, and may also lose picks for signing free agents. There might be fewer quality prospects on a contending team’s minor league roster than the tanking teams. Depending on the age of players at various positions, an undrafted high school or college player might have a better path to the majors by signing with a contender. However, the ability of any high school kid, or his agent, to predict this is rather doubtful. They should probably opt for college ball if undrafted.
   8. bookbook Posted: May 16, 2020 at 05:48 PM (#5951252)
"Teams with low state taxes would be on my list" this is the argument for why States forego taxes. In practice, the states/cities with the highest taxes are also the ones considered the nicest places to live. So, yeah, that would be a factor for me, but not one of the top ten.

Where I think I'd fit best with coaching/team philosophy would have to be the number one consideration. Followed by clearest path to the upper minors (path to the majors is lower on my list, because if I can get to AA and impress, someone with a need will notice).

Or, if I'm being realistic, which single-A city is the nicest, and will yield me an opportunity to become known to local businesses and community leaders. After I wash out, I can be a banker or a real estate agent or start a restaurant in town.
   9. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 16, 2020 at 06:49 PM (#5951268)
Any HS player would be silly to turn down a scholarship in exchange for $20,000 but if the scholarship status is up in the air

Given previous discussion of the likelihood of success for sixth-round and beyond, I'd think the reverse might be true, provided one takes the education that nominally comes with the scholarship.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: May 16, 2020 at 08:21 PM (#5951295)
Given previous discussion of the likelihood of success for sixth-round and beyond, I'd think the reverse might be true, provided one takes the education that nominally comes with the scholarship.

Huh? I just said he'd be silly to turn down a scholarship for $20,000. You're saying a kid should turn down a scholarship and sign for $20,000?

My latter point is that I have no idea if colleges are handing out new scholarships to this year's high school seniors -- who won't have played in a year and with the uni having no real idea if they'll even be playing in 2021.

So to alleviate any remaining confusion:

Any undrafted HS player who is offered a scholarship should take it rather than sign for a $20,000 bonus.
   11. DL from MN Posted: May 16, 2020 at 08:25 PM (#5951297)
Any undrafted HS player who is offered a scholarship should take it rather than sign for a $20,000 bonus.

Except from the sounds of it they can sign for $20,000 and a scholarship.
   12. Walt Davis Posted: May 16, 2020 at 08:50 PM (#5951314)
On the other question, 2019 Yanks

Chance Adams -- 5th round Yanks
Jake Barrett -- 3rd DBacks (waivers)
Betances -- 8th Yanks
Bird -- 5th Yanks
Nestor Cortes -- 36th Yanks
Ryan Dull -- 32nd A's (waivers)
Mike Ford -- undrafted(!) Yanks
Frazier -- 1st Cle
Cory Gearrin -- 4th Braves (waivers)
Green -- 11th Tigers
Joe Harvey -- 19th Yanks
Ben Heller -- 22nd Cle
Jonathan Holder -- 6th Yanks
Kahnle -- 5th Yanks (to Rox then WSox)
Mike King -- 12th Marlins
Brady Lail -- 18th Yanks
Joe Mantiply -- 27th Tigers
Montgomery -- 4th Yanks
Stephen Tarpley -- 3rd O's
Tauchmann -- 10th Rox
Voit -- 22nd Cards
Tyler Wade -- 4th Yanks

Now that is a long list of players who for the most part are guys even Yanks fans didn't know they had. (There's also Judge 1st and Romine 2nd.) With modern bullpens, everybody gets a shot. There are a lot of 4th/5th round guys in that list but the gap between 4/5 and 6/7 is pretty thin. Plenty of those folks have been in the Yankees org from day one -- of course it's possible they make the majors sooner or get more service time if they'd been in the Tigers system but you're hardly "buried" in the Yanks system.

In that other thread, Rally(?) noted there were something like 260 debuts last year ... and that might miss some folks who were rostered but didn't play. If we're talking 8-9 debuts per team per year plus obviously some of those guys you debuted last year will appear this year (even if just for a few innings, maybe with another team) and generally maybe only once every two years (on average) is there a debut of a "top" prospect, then every team is using fringe guys that came from nowhere.
   13. McCoy Posted: May 16, 2020 at 08:55 PM (#5951317)
College rarely gives out a full scholarship for baseball so for a lot of players 20 grand in hand could very well be the equivalent or more than what they would get from a college.
   14. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 16, 2020 at 09:06 PM (#5951318)
Given previous discussion of the likelihood of success for sixth-round and beyond, I'd think the reverse might be true, provided one takes the education that nominally comes with the scholarship.

Huh? I just said he'd be silly to turn down a scholarship for $20,000. You're saying a kid should turn down a scholarship and sign for $20,000?

Apologies, Walt; my ######.
   15. McCoy Posted: May 16, 2020 at 09:07 PM (#5951319)
A lot of these late round guys would end up playing in JuCo.
   16. winnipegwhip Posted: May 16, 2020 at 09:37 PM (#5951336)
Juco is the way to go. Division 1 Jucos can offer a maximum of 24 full rides...which include tuition, room and board plus expenses for books and supplies.

The quality of juco, NAIA and NCAA is about to get a lot better.
   17. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 16, 2020 at 11:10 PM (#5951356)
The quality of juco, NAIA and NCAA is about to get a lot better.

Well, except for, you know, the academics
   18. McCoy Posted: May 17, 2020 at 09:19 AM (#5951404)
Well, JuCo is 2 years. The sticker price is between 9,000 and 17,000 for two years.

Also, like the NCAA most JuCo baseball scholarship programs aren't fully funded so like the NCAA most JuCo's only offer partial scholarships to stretch their budgets.
   19. DL from MN Posted: May 17, 2020 at 10:56 AM (#5951416)
scholarships through the continuing education program.

I'm going to deduce that this means they can sign a high school player for $20k plus a full ride scholarship.
   20. McCoy Posted: May 17, 2020 at 11:32 AM (#5951426)
More like X dollars that can be used on education.
   21. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: May 17, 2020 at 01:38 PM (#5951447)
How much cheating is there going to be in this system? I'm sure somebody is going to look out for it, but it wouldn't surprise me if there are guys who sign for their 20k and their brother gets a 1 year contract as a scout that pays $150k and doesn't require any actual scouting.
   22. McCoy Posted: May 17, 2020 at 02:13 PM (#5951454)
They would be pretty easy to spot. If MLB is serious about putting their foot down on salaries there isn't much you can do that would make the risk worth it. I mean it's not like you can sneak in the next Kris Bryant this way.
   23. Scott Lange Posted: May 17, 2020 at 10:45 PM (#5951528)
Teams with low state taxes would be on my list.

Major League players pay taxes where they play games, right? So 1/2 in their home town, and the rest pro-rated state-by-state for where the games were scheduled? Assuming minor leaguers' taxes work the same way, it's really not gonna matter.
   24. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 18, 2020 at 02:32 AM (#5951558)
for 20 K you're not going to have a significant tax hit in any state these days. How much has the typical draftee made in the first six months of the year, how much will they make the rest of the year, and why would they move to the state in which they're drafted without any baseball activities?
   25. winnipegwhip Posted: May 18, 2020 at 11:12 AM (#5951632) sound like my old boss who would argue that he wasn't giving mess big a raise as deserved because it would increase the amount of taxes I would have to pay. He was doing it for my benefit. I could never get across to him that income taxes are bracketed and because you started paying a higher rate it was only on the proportion of income that that rate covers.
   26. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 18, 2020 at 12:44 PM (#5951684)
I'm sorry, wwhip? What I said is that $20K for someone coming out of HS or JUCO is not not going to trigger a significant state tax hit. Then I said that even if they were drafted by a team that has a state income tax they have no reason to move to it.

Thus, I don't see how the state tax bite on @20K makes any difference.
   27. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: May 18, 2020 at 01:59 PM (#5951708)
While the NBA and the NFL can grab mega-ratings and attention for their drafts during a pandemic, MLB (which is never going to be as interesting for fans, I get it) had a chance to find a way to maximize attention from the sports-consuming public with some kind of draft production in June. Instead, there is no evidence MLB is trying to get creative with it as a TV product, and the $20K limit makes it extremely unlikely any of the best prospects not drafted in the first five rounds will sign with any teams.

In 2019, here were the ranges of the bonus values for the first and last pick of each round between rounds 6 and 10:

Round 6: $301,600-$237,000
Round 7: $235,100-$187,700
Round 8: $186,300 - $159,700
Round 9: $159,200-$148,200
Round 10: $147,900-$142,200

If you are good enough to get drafted in the first 10 rounds of the MLB draft as a HS player, then you would have definitely received an offer somewhere to get a full ride to play at a college somewhere, right?

$20K is not a lot of money, in the big picture of life. Even for an 18-year-old from a poor background, $20K isn't changing your life - you can't buy a new car, it is not a down payment on any housing you would own, you can't sock it away and let it earn interest for four years while you figure out if you can make it to the big leagues (the interest rate is under 1%)....

If you a high school player who receives an opportunity to get some college paid for, and can play college/JuCo baseball in the meantime, and then likely get drafted again sometime in the next 1-4 years for at least a $20K signing bonus at that time...well, it is a no-brainer, right?

If you are a college player whose eligibility is completed, and you would have been a solid 6th-to-10th round draft pick - that's the guy who is going to be screwed out of $100K-$300K in 2020. They can't go back and play college ball, and the cap for the bonus is $20K. Isn't that the player who gets nailed in 2020? So teams should load up on the best college players who don't get drafted, and they should focus their 1st-through-5th round picks on the best high school prospects, because they can actually offer them money to forego college.

So, like a guy like Jacob DeGrom gets drafted in the top half of the 8th round in 2010 by the Mets. He was a senior at Stetson University, solid prospect, and has obviously enjoyed success in the majors. (I understand most draft picks in the 6th-through-10th rounds never make the majors, and certainly do not become stars.) But what does a guy like DeGrom do in 2020...sign for $20K, I guess. (DeGrom got $95K in 2010 as a signing bonus, FYI).

The thing is, $95K a decade ago would be about $112K in today's dollars. The difference for a 22-year-old between $20K and $112K is everything. You *can* put a down payment on a good home and a nice car for that kind of money. You could help your parents pay off some consumer debt with that kind of bonus. That's who I feel bad for this June...
   28. winnipegwhip Posted: May 18, 2020 at 06:24 PM (#5951827)
Mayor Bloomberg - no problem. I was not disagreeing with you. I just made a statement referring to my own humorous and frustrating experience to build on what you said. Some people don't understand how taxes work. I try to impress that everything has a tax issue. You want to spend buy something for $100. Sales taxes can add 10 to 15%. Now you have to make how much to buy the item? Not $115. If your marginal tax rate is 20%, you have to actually earn $143.75 to buy that item.
   29. Zach Posted: May 18, 2020 at 08:18 PM (#5951855)
Yeah, $20K really isn't much. Especially when you consider there's not going to be any minor league baseball this year. So you're not even accelerating the development timetable. By the time people start playing games again, the player's value could be totally different.
   30. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 18, 2020 at 08:37 PM (#5951858)
gotcha. Yeah, I knew some otherwise smart people who didn't understand the concept of marginal in that sense either
   31. DL from MN Posted: May 19, 2020 at 11:54 AM (#5951985)
If you are a college player whose eligibility is completed

Are there any of these? I thought this year didn't count for college eligibility. Everyone can go back for another season.

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