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Sunday, March 29, 2020

MLB final pitch could be closer to Christmas than Halloween

And now, a counter-point to Mr. Kershaw:

NEW YORK (AP) — If the final pitch of the 2020 baseball season comes closer to Christmas than Halloween, that’s fine with the players.

Major League Baseball owners ratified a 17-page agreement with the union on Friday in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, with players willing to extend the season as long as needed to cover as close to a full schedule as possible.

Even if it involves neutral sites in warm-weather cities and domes. Even if it involves playing in empty ballparks. Even if it involves lots of day-night doubleheaders.

And if it means expanding the playoffs from 10 teams, fine.

Weirdo that I am, neutral-site games excite me- however, some of my ideas as for where to hold them might not be where MLB is planning to go…..

QLE Posted: March 29, 2020 at 12:35 AM | 12 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: christmas, doubleheaders, neutral site games, players

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: March 29, 2020 at 03:08 AM (#5934666)
I worry about our collective global psyche. I've been impressed by how relatively calmly people have taken this and how most seem willing to go through these lockdowns (of varying severity) and struggle through the economic collapse and how quickly many governments have responded to the economic issues. (Boris Johnson has practically turned into Hugo Chavez.)

But from the stuff I read, there's a very real possibility that as the N hemishphere heads back into winter flu season, this thing will spike again. And there seems this widespread attitude that if we can just hold our #### together for 2-3 months then we'll be through it and life will be pretty normal again. It's not clear that's the case -- we could be in a similar (hopefully better) spot next Dec/Jan. I'm not sure how folks will react to that.

And from MLB's perspective, it seems an unnecessary risk to go with a plan that has games running through Nov and especially Dec. If MLB can get through a 60-80 game season with crowds showing up, I think they should count themselves lucky and move onto spring 2021. It would be pointless if they have to shut down the season again in mid-Nov.
   2. bbmck Posted: March 29, 2020 at 03:34 PM (#5934761)
A team has a 40% chance to win every game, a star player recovers from injury in time for the playoffs to keep them at 40%.

Making the playoffs: ~7.5% chance to finish 30-30 or better
Also winning the wild card game to cut the field down to 8: ~3%
Also winning a best of five to cut the field down to 4: ~1%
Also winning a best of seven to reach the World Series: 1 in ~364
Also winning a best of seven World Series: 1 in ~1257

A team has a 45% chance to win every game, a star player recovers from injury in time for the playoffs to keep them at 45%.

Making the playoffs: ~26% chance to finish 30-30 or better
Also winning the wild card game to cut the field down to 8: ~12%
Also winning a best of five to cut the field down to 4: ~5%
Also winning a best of seven to reach the World Series: ~2%
Also winning a best of seven World Series: 1 in ~138

A team has a 50% chance to win every game, a star player recovers from injury in time for the playoffs to keep them at 50%.

Making the playoffs: ~55% chance to finish 30-30 or better
Also winning the wild card game to cut the field down to 8: ~28%
Also winning a best of five to cut the field down to 4: ~14%
Also winning a best of seven to reach the World Series: ~7%
Also winning a best of seven World Series: 1 in ~29

A team has a 55% chance to win every game, a star player recovers from injury in time for the playoffs to keep them at 55%.

Making the playoffs: ~82% chance to finish 30-30 or better
Also winning the wild card game to cut the field down to 8: ~45%
Also winning a best of five to cut the field down to 4: ~27%
Also winning a best of seven to reach the World Series: ~16%
Also winning a best of seven World Series: 1 in ~10

A team has a 60% chance to win every game, a star player recovers from injury in time for the playoffs to keep them at 60%.

Making the playoffs: ~96% chance to finish 30-30 or better
Also winning the wild card game to cut the field down to 8: ~57%
Also winning a best of five to cut the field down to 4: ~39%
Also winning a best of seven to reach the World Series: ~28%
Also winning a best of seven World Series: 1 in ~5

I would be really surprised if the best record in each league played a Wild Card game, so there is a further increase in likelihood of winning the World Series as quality of team improves, for instance the 60% team might have a 33% chance of avoiding the Wild Card which would push their chances of winning the World Series from 19.7% to 24.1%. That part is impractical to math out as even if the playoff format was known, strength of teams within the division would also have to be factored in.
   3. Sunday silence Posted: March 29, 2020 at 07:36 PM (#5934810)
But from the stuff I read, there's a very real possibility that as the N hemishphere heads back into winter flu season, this thing will spike again.


You know, Ive not been overly concerned about this possibility because I like to believe that in 8 months we will have better treatments and better testing and better everything.

BUt as far as baseball is concerned, the fact that a recurrence is even possible, makes your pt. very interesting indeed. So interesting that I just cant see how they can plan on games in Nov. that seems flirting with disaster.
   4. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 29, 2020 at 09:17 PM (#5934825)
I just cant see how they can plan on games in Nov. that seems flirting with disaster.


embarassment, not disaster. but I also wonder how much they hurt themselves playing deeper into the football season.
   5. Doug Jones threw harder than me Posted: March 29, 2020 at 10:47 PM (#5934836)
If this thing goes into August in some places as projected, I think baseball may be served by:

1) Starting with an all-star game
2) The equivalent of a round-robin tournament to establish seeding, with every team playing a 3-game/3-game series with each team in their division (5x6=30, so it would probably take something like 1.5 months)
3) Then go to a full 30-team tournament, with teams first playing within their division, within their league, then the World Series, ending by Halloween.

That would maintain maximum excitement, and is probably the best one could do. It would hopefully take a lot away from football, which would be starting up at the same time.
   6. DL from MN Posted: March 30, 2020 at 08:50 AM (#5934881)
embarassment, not disaster. but I also wonder how much they hurt themselves playing deeper into the football season.


You're assuming there will be a football season
   7. Blastin Posted: March 30, 2020 at 09:25 AM (#5934886)
I think the new 5 minute test made by Abbott will help things restart once the peak passes (and we did such a bad job that the peak is going to be pretty soon in most places, by Memorial day at the latest). They might have a treatment by summer. They will definitely be stockpiling ventilators, so the hospital situation is a lot less likely.


But I think we get a short season from like July to Sept and I will take it ####### it.
   8. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 30, 2020 at 12:12 PM (#5934937)

I just cant see how they can plan on games in Nov. that seems flirting with disaster.


Agree. The Atlantic lays out some scenarios on how the coronavirus will end and even under the best case scenarios, there won't be any fans over the summer, and a decent chance that the fall will be as bad as it is now, and baseball and travel will have to shut down again. I was pretty optimistic there would be some baseball, possibly even by June, but now I'm thinking there may not be a season this year.
   9. McCoy Posted: March 30, 2020 at 12:14 PM (#5934939)
So it seems Brockmire in its latest season guy the years wrong.
   10. Jay Z Posted: March 30, 2020 at 01:06 PM (#5934957)
We'll do what the virus allows and what our mitigation efforts allow, no more and no less.

What are people going to do? Riot? The virus is what it is. The virus may have a lot more to say about what we do than we do. That's just the way things are.

I expect there will be some efforts to open back up once the hospitalization rate, death rate starts falling. Some will be too fast, others won't. I am "okay" with that because it's reality. Sports have been conservative on this thing and I think that will continue.
   11. Blastin Posted: March 30, 2020 at 02:18 PM (#5934983)
even under the best case scenarios, there won't be any fans over the summer, and a decent chance that the fall will be as bad as it is now,


That is not remotely the best case scenario. The best case scenario is testing is finally ramped up, an antiviral starts to work. And fall might have a resurgence, but it can't be as bad because some will have developed antibodies, we'll presumably have more ventilators ready, and so forth.

I expect some fanless games.
   12. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 30, 2020 at 02:28 PM (#5934984)
That is not remotely the best case scenario. The best case scenario is testing is finally ramped up, an antiviral starts to work. And fall might have a resurgence, but it can't be as bad because some will have developed antibodies, we'll presumably have more ventilators ready, and so forth.

I expect some fanless games.
Warmer weather could reduce the spread of the virus, mitigation measures could have a greater than predicted effect, and there could be breakthroughs in treatment. Things have changed very rapidly, and that could continue. There are certainly worst case scenarios, too, but the best case isn’t no games played in 2020.

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