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Saturday, November 12, 2022

MLB free agency: Cody Bellinger and more non-tender candidates who could find themselves on the market -

I thought maybe Anderson’s problem was his park. He has actually hit better at home than on the road the last two years.

1. Brian Anderson, 3B/OF, Marlins
There was a point earlier in Anderson’s career, when he tallied back-to-back three-win seasons in 2018-19, where it appeared he could become a franchise cornerstone. That hasn’t happened. Instead, he’s taken a step backward the past two seasons, posting a 90 OPS+ and notching just 1.6 combined Wins Above Replacement. Now, Anderson is a 29-year-old whose projected arbitration prize (north of $5 million) would make him one of the highest paid players on the Marlins roster. Another franchise, one endowed with a greater financial commitment from ownership, might shrug off that pricepoint. Probably not the Fish, who used Anderson sparingly down the stretch out of deference to younger, cheaper internal options.

jimfurtado Posted: November 12, 2022 at 08:11 AM | 13 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: non-tenders

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   1. JJ1986 Posted: November 12, 2022 at 12:09 PM (#6105222)
I had not realized it, but the nontender deadline is super early this year.
   2. The Duke Posted: November 12, 2022 at 12:22 PM (#6105224)
Dodgers maybe clearing decks for a run at Ohtani next year? When they benched him it seemed like the end
   3. Walt Davis Posted: November 12, 2022 at 01:32 PM (#6105231)
If I'm surprised by anything in that list, it's that most of these candidates are quite cheap. Bellinger is the only one who's slated to make more than maybe $7-8. Are the Brewers really willing to let Hiura go over maybe $2 M? If they are, does it matter? Obviously lots of guys like this get non-tendered every year but if these are the 10 most eye-catching candidates then teams have done a pretty good job of sifting through winners and losers in previous years. We're only a couple of years removed from Schwarber, Rosario, Pederson and a few others being non-tendered over about $2 M, now it's whether a team wants to tender a 85 ERA+ reliever? I know the answer to that one.

Also the article says stuff like maybe it's time for the Dodgers to "move on" from Bellinger. They don't have to move on from Bellinger, they can non-tender him then 5 seconds later offer him 1/$8 (because there just aren't CF options out there). He might prefer to move on or he might get a better offer elsewhere but there's no reason he and the Dodgers can't come to an agreement.
   4. DCA Posted: November 12, 2022 at 01:47 PM (#6105238)
What #3 said. On a team that isn't pinching pennies, 8/10 of these guys are easy keepers. They are likely to be worth their salary or at worst a slight overpay, with the possibility of being a great bargain (including future control at less than market rates for most). Bellinger of course is expensive and not worth it, and Pagan should be treated like a FA reliever, after the last few years he might be looking at a minor league deal with an invite to spring training.
   5. DCA Posted: November 12, 2022 at 01:48 PM (#6105239)
Dodgers maybe clearing decks for a run at Ohtani next year? When they benched him it seemed like the end

Paying Bellinger in 2023 has no bearing on seeking to pay Ohtani in 2024.
   6. The Duke Posted: November 12, 2022 at 02:00 PM (#6105241)
Not exactly but I think they have a luxury cap issue don't they ? And losing a bunch of these middle of the pack guys helps them drift below and restart, correct?

They lose price, kimbrel , Turner, Bellinger, Bauer and Turner and maybe they get back below the cap for a year
   7. cardsfanboy Posted: November 12, 2022 at 02:40 PM (#6105249)
I don't see any way that the Cardinals don't tender an offer to Hudson, off year be damn, his career has been solid up to this point and the team will need innings no matter if it's elite or not. I mean if they sign Quintana between no and the 18th, maybe let him go, but even that seems to be a waste of an affordable proven arm.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: November 12, 2022 at 09:36 PM (#6105324)
#6 fair point -- I don't know how much they'd have to clear to get below the cap. It might mean signing almost nobody this year. Putting a big hole in the 2023 team because you hope to convince Ohtani in 2024 is quite the gamble. The two Turners and Bellinger is 1800 PA that need replacing.

But they will want to reset at some point and that's going to be painful whenever they do it. Maybe now is a good time.
   9. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: November 13, 2022 at 11:21 AM (#6105344)
does ANYONE know what the hell happened to Bellinger--I've never seen anyone cliff starting at age 24. Is/was he injured?
   10. cardsfanboy Posted: November 13, 2022 at 11:27 AM (#6105347)
I would wait one more year before declaring him over the cliff, who knows how the covid layoff affected his timing/performance.
   11. Walt Davis Posted: November 13, 2022 at 01:14 PM (#6105362)
Bellinger had a shoulder injury a couple of years ago. Whether it's the cause, who knows? (I think the timing lines up but won't swear to it.)

It's not as dramatic but Heyward's bat fell apart at 26. Templeton also at 26. Jeff Burroughs had OPS+ of 141 and 162 at 22-23 then crashed to 100 for a couple of years before putting things back together (then couldn't stay healthy). It's gonna be hard to find precise comps for Bellinger -- crashing to a 44 OPS+ is already nearly unprecedented but it's even moreso that he was allowed to keep a full-time job after doing so.
   12. DFA Posted: November 13, 2022 at 03:48 PM (#6105388)
does ANYONE know what the hell happened to Bellinger--I've never seen anyone cliff starting at age 24. Is/was he injured?

Kike Hernandez happened.
   13. The Duke Posted: November 13, 2022 at 04:10 PM (#6105391)
I read an article that had a lot of stats that said his production did NOT drop off badly after the shoulder but that he incurred a knee/ankle injury after that that changed his stride and that he's never been able to get back to his natural stride. Think the Yelich collapse after the knee injury

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