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Thursday, September 22, 2022

MLB home run record: 15 current sluggers who could be next to make push for a 60-homer season

Here are some selected candidates (listed in alphabetical order) with my guess as to their chances of one day challenging 60.

1. Pete Alonso, Mets
These are listed alphabetically by last name and not ranked. If I ranked them, however, Pete would find himself toward the top of that list, too. He’s already hit 53, as noted. He hit 16 in 57 games in 2020 (a 162-game pace of 45 home runs). He has a shot at 40 this season, as he hit his 37th Tuesday night. He’s big and strong. He’s still got several years of prime left. What’s not to like?

Chances of challenging 60: Decent to good. He’s one of the best bets here.

2. Yordan Alvarez, Astros
He has a career high in home runs this year, though he’s still short of 40. But that sentence comes with some pretty big caveats. Alvarez is still only 25 years old. He homered 27 times as a rookie, but that was in just 87 games. This season, he’s only played in 122 games and still has 37 homers. His contact skills have improved and he hits the ball as hard as anyone. To wit, Judge leads the majors in average exit velocity this season (shocker, I know) and Alvarez is a close second.

He has every characteristic you’d want.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 22, 2022 at 09:51 AM | 38 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: aaron judge

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   1. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: September 22, 2022 at 12:03 PM (#6097493)
And then the same MLB personalities wonder why even today's ninth-place hitters swing for the fences...
   2. SandyRiver Posted: September 22, 2022 at 12:28 PM (#6097498)
The incredibly short porch to right field in Fenway

isn't that much help to Devers, as anything more than a few yards to the left of Pesky Pole is beyond the skinny little porch. I think straightaway RF is the deepest in the AL, maybe the deepest other than Coors. That said, I really don't have much argument with the article, other than its being maybe a bit too generous.
   3. The Duke Posted: September 22, 2022 at 12:34 PM (#6097499)
I'd put my money on Alonso as the most likely outside of Judge. It seems like Soto should be on the list. Nolan Gorman also seems like a possible. His issue, strangely, is that he can't seem to hit major league fastballs. I have no doubt that will be a blip. He's got lightning fast bat speed and when he does run into one it goes a long way. I'm guessing he will make a run but not for five-ten years. Still a youngster.
   4. Nasty Nate Posted: September 22, 2022 at 12:36 PM (#6097502)
The incredibly short porch to right field in Fenway
I've never heard RF at Fenway referred to this way.
   5. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 22, 2022 at 12:47 PM (#6097504)
I'd definitely go with Alvarez. Of the players on that list he's got one big advantage: Maximum lineup protection, surrounded by Bregman and Tucker. Alonso would be a close second, though if Judge can stay healthy, who knows?
   6. SoSH U at work Posted: September 22, 2022 at 12:50 PM (#6097506)
I've never heard RF at Fenway referred to this way.


The incredibly short part is smaller than an actual porch.
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 22, 2022 at 12:58 PM (#6097507)
Judge has 20 more HR than anyone else, so I'm skeptical anyone else could make a push!

This is the largest gap between #1 and #2 in HR since.....when?
   8. BDC Posted: September 22, 2022 at 12:58 PM (#6097508)
Yes, I think a fair number of HR into the RF corner at Fenway are hit by RHB slicing the ball just not-quite-foul – that is my impression from TV over the years, anyway.
   9. SoSH U at work Posted: September 22, 2022 at 01:22 PM (#6097515)

Yes, I think a fair number of HR into the RF corner at Fenway are hit by RHB slicing the ball just not-quite-foul – that is my impression from TV over the years, anyway.


I was sitting in the rightfield corner once and I watched Ernie Whitt pull a line drive that doinked off the bottom of the pole. It was very unimpressive as dingers go.

But you're right, the HRs that take advantage of the pole seem to come off the bats of righthanders far more than lefty sticks.

   10. Booey Posted: September 22, 2022 at 01:45 PM (#6097519)
#7 - The last time anyone led the entire majors by 20+ homers was 1928, when Ruth beat Hack Wilson and Jim Bottomley 54-31. So yeah, it's been a while. ;-)

(Gehrig only had 27 homers that season, in case anyone was wondering)
   11. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: September 22, 2022 at 02:07 PM (#6097522)
My favorite HR off the Pesky Pole was hit by Mark Bullhorn in the 2004 post season.
   12. DCA Posted: September 22, 2022 at 02:20 PM (#6097526)
I'd definitely go with Alvarez. Of the players on that list he's got one big advantage: Maximum lineup protection, surrounded by Bregman and Tucker.

Moreso than traditional protection, high team OBP means more individual PA = more opportunities. Also, for a power hitter, he doesn't strike out a lot. More BIP = more opportunities. Judge has dropped his K rate to 25%, that is probably as high as you can go and still make a serious run at 60.
   13. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 22, 2022 at 02:22 PM (#6097527)
Having hit 60 this season, and being the only active player to ever have done it, probably makes Judge the most likely to do it again, although it would certainly be a more exceptional feat than doing it once. Judge is younger than Ruth was when he hit 60, FWIW.
   14. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 22, 2022 at 02:33 PM (#6097528)
I mean, at this point there's almost no point in saying it -- but if Trout can stay on the field for 150+ games, he's got as good a shot as anybody other than Judge or Alonso.
   15. DCA Posted: September 22, 2022 at 02:52 PM (#6097531)
Having hit 60 this season, and being the only active player to ever have done it, probably makes Judge the most likely to do it again

This. In fact, he's one of just 3 active players who have even hit 50 in a season (Alonso, Stanton).

Missing from the list: Acuna. After Judge, Alonso, and Yordan, who I think are an obvious top 3, Acuna would probably be my next choice (the 2018-21 version of Acuna, at least; he's not hitting as hard or as much in the air this year, if that's a permanent change there's no chance).
   16. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 22, 2022 at 04:17 PM (#6097540)

I was about to make the same comment about Acuna - prior to the ACL injury, he was averaging 45 HR per 162 games.

Schwarber has the second most HR in the majors this season with 40, but it's hard to see him hitting many more than that. Maybe if he gets traded to the Rockies...

   17. Walt Davis Posted: September 22, 2022 at 04:28 PM (#6097541)
More BIP = more opportunities.

Unless he's a lot faster than he looks, BIP are not gonna help Yordan get there. :-) (Just having nerdy fun ... and yes more _contact_ likely means more HRs.)

As noted Soto is the name missing from the list (esp a list that dives this deep into some pretty unlikely candidates). I mean people like to rave about Oneil Cruz ... Soto is actually 3 weeks younger. (Both will be turning 24 in Oct.) For pretty much any (hitting) category of "who will be next to..." or "which current players will..." Soto has to be on the list.

#3 -- Gorman is on the list. It would be fun to get a healthy season out of Stanton or Buxton.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: September 22, 2022 at 04:57 PM (#6097544)
If you want a genuine darkhorse candidate ... or you want a list of which mediocre players are most likely or what would be the emptiest 60-HR season ever candidate ... I'll offer up Patrick Wisdom. Last year he had 28 in just 375 PA with a HR/FB over 25%. Granted, that's still not quite even a 50-HR pace but there's (nearly) always a fluke element involved in it anyway. Obviously Wisdom isn't a top-notch player, he might evven be out of the majors by 2024-25, so it would be a super-fluke.

That said ... anybody koww what's going on with EV. B-R says his avg EV is 93.7 this year but statcast says it's 90.7. Is there a second source for EV? 3 MPH is a really big difference in this thing. Statcast does put Wisdom 9th in avg EV for FB/LDs and he doesn't hit a lot of GBs (OK, he doesn't hit a lot of anything but even when he hits it, he doesn't hit a lot of GB).

I don't know but it seems like EV on FB/LD along with G/F ratio and contact rate gets you most of the way to "here are the candidates." The only bit you're missing is launch angle. Anyway the EV-FB/LD leaders are:

Judge 100.1
Schwarber 99.4
JD Davis 98.6
Stanton 98.5
Alvarez 98.4
Vlad 98.3
Teoscar Hernandez 98.2
Riley 97.8
Wisdom 97.7
Buxton 97.4
Ohtani 97.4

And that's most of the guys on this list. Alonso is all the way down at 94.5 and JRod is at 96.3 (same as Harper). That EV list suggests Teoscar is the top darkhorse candidate -- he'd need a "low" K season hitting more FBs but looks like the ingredients are there.

Of course that's just this year. But even in his 53-HR season, Alonso was "just" 96.6 (18th) ... but then obviously that can also be enough to get the job done.

It would be nice to calm down on some of the "hardest-hit in history" stuff. The physics of hitting HRs hasn't changed -- it has always been about EV and LA, the only variables from one era to the next are park dimensions, the properties of the ball and maybe the quality of the bats. Give or take, Ernie Banks was hitting his HRs as hard as Sammy Sosa who was hitting his as hard as Patrick Wisdom.
   19. JJ1986 Posted: September 22, 2022 at 06:41 PM (#6097551)
I'll bet Darin Ruf is not near the top of the EV list.
   20. Eddie Gaedel Posted: September 22, 2022 at 06:53 PM (#6097553)
#17 I gotta imagine that Soto's 20+ percent walk rate will interfere with any run at counting (rather than rate) records. 150 BBs a year will keep his AB right around 500.... though his microscopic K rate certainly offsets some of that, enabling him to have a decent number of non BB/K batting events.
   21. Walt Davis Posted: September 22, 2022 at 09:05 PM (#6097568)
#17 I gotta imagine that Soto's 20+ percent walk rate will interfere with any run at counting (rather than rate) records.

Sure but why do you think they walk him so much? And it's not like Bonds, McGwire and Ruth weren't walked heaps. Bonds walked 177 times (26.7%) after several years of walking about 20%. Mac was walked 162 times. Ruth walked 150 times in his first 50+ HR season, 145 in his 59-HR season and 137 in his 60. Soto's career high is 145 and this year he should come up a bit short of that. What Soto probably needs more is to hit more FBs and get the HR/FB rate up over 20 (for at least one magical year).

But sure, with his approach to date, Soto hasn't even crackd 35 HR yet so 60 would be quite the surprise. But this guy mentions Oneil Cruz, Nolan Gorman, Devers and Austin Riley. There's no way Soto's chances are worse than those guys.

EDIT: Again, he really is pretty amazing. Soto is also younger than Acuna and Riley, only 70 days older than Tatis, 150 days older than Vladito. To the extent we apply any "we haven't seen his peak yet" to those guys, we've got to apply it to Soto too.
   22. Walt Davis Posted: September 22, 2022 at 09:38 PM (#6097574)
I'll bet Darin Ruf is not near the top of the EV list.

EV lists are funny things. Trout's avg EVs are not particularly high, only two seasons where he was in the top 1%. Bichette and Ryan McMahon hit the ball as hard as Mike Trout. This year Jose Ramirez (150 OPS+) has an avg EV that is 172nd, tied with Brandon Crawford (84 OPS+).

Darin Ruf is at 89.2 (I'm not sure if that's the season or the Mets); Lindor is at 89.3; Alonso is at 89.8.

"Barrels" brings together EV and LA. Barrels/BBE (batted ball event) is probably the best indicator of "nasty hitter ... when he hits it." Trout is 4th on this list (Judge, Alvarez, Schwarber). Ruf is 100th on that list but Lindor is 107th (Alonso a solid 36th). Ramirez is still all the way down at 154th.

Or we can usee barrels/PA which will bring Ks (and BBs) into it. The very top of the list is still the same -- not that these guys don't K a lot but they're far enough ahead on barrels that they're still at the top overall. Ruf is 122nd, Lindor 102nd, Alonso 26th and Ramirez 134th.

Ramirez is just a strange guy. He's got an extreme G/F of 1/2 ... and a full 20% of his FBs are pop-ups. He's got a lousy BABIP, an unexciting HR/FB, doesn't hit an inordinate number of LDs. But he still manages a 240 ISO. Still his secret sauce is that he Ks just 12%.
   23. John Reynard Posted: September 23, 2022 at 04:20 AM (#6097604)
I feel like a healthy Buxton is a possible to do this. But, the odds of a healthy Buxton for 155+ games are pretty slim at this point.

Why Buxton over some of the other guys?

Leads off despite absurd power. You don't get pitched around leading off.

Pitchers have less of a book on the guy cause he's hurt so much.

He doesn't walk that much so those are bonus times to make hard contact.

I guess the chance of a Buxton healthy season aren't really that much more absurd than anyone doing 60 in current conditions, right? I mean, Judge doing it is impressive.

   24. Walt Davis Posted: September 23, 2022 at 03:30 PM (#6097658)
As the article notes, Buxton has 60 HR in his last 771 PA -- spread over 3 years -- so he's kinda already there. He's added 39 doubles and 3 triples too, 406 TB which is Sosa-esque.

Now of course we know for a fact that it's impossible for a skinny, fast kid to go from 28 HR in over 1000 PA to 60 HR and 400 TB in about a season without evil PEDs.
   25. SandyRiver Posted: September 23, 2022 at 03:42 PM (#6097661)
The last time anyone led the entire majors by 20+ homers was 1928, when Ruth beat Hack Wilson and Jim Bottomley 54-31. So yeah, it's been a while. ;-)

Has anyone BUT Ruth led MLB by >20 homers? In addition to 1928, he appears to have led by 26 in 1926 and by 35 in both 1920 and 21.
   26. bookbook Posted: September 23, 2022 at 11:52 PM (#6097726)
Julio Rodriguez has had enough injuries over his minor league and major league career—nothing super worrying—that I imagine he’ll be a 140-game a year star, not a 160-game guy. For that reason alone, 60 seems unlikely.
   27. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 24, 2022 at 12:15 AM (#6097728)
Like is the premise that now that Judge has hit 60 then next season everyone is going to start swinging for the fences more?
   28. Ron J Posted: September 24, 2022 at 05:10 AM (#6097734)
#27 In the world of athletics it's not uncommon that just knowing something is possible means more people will attempt it.

That said, I think everybody understands that nobody's a good bet for 60.
   29. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 24, 2022 at 11:06 AM (#6097742)
Like the four minute mile?
   30. Ron J Posted: September 24, 2022 at 11:24 AM (#6097744)
#29 That's exactly what I was thinking of.
   31. Booey Posted: September 24, 2022 at 12:55 PM (#6097749)
#25 - Not that I could find. The highest non Ruth MLB leading total I found was 17, when Jimmie Foxx beat (ironically) Ruth 58-41 in 1932. A couple other players have led their LEAGUE by 20+; most recently Stanton over Cody Bellinger in the 2017 NL (59-39). Before that it hadn't been done since Mantle over Vic Wertz in 1956 (52-32).

The thing with this article - and why virtually none of the guys listed really has any chance - is that "regular" power hitters (say, the perennial 35-45 homer guys) don't just get lucky and/or have a career year and fluke their way into a 60 homer season. You basically have to be a true talent 50 homer level guy, and there's only been a dozen or so of those players in MLB history. Of the 60 homer sluggers, Maris (2nd highest total was 39) is the exception/fluke; Ruth, McGwire, and Sosa each had four 50 homer seasons (plus a 49). Give Bonds slightly better health and/or fewer walks (say, 160 games or 500 AB's each season) and he tops 50 five straight years (2000-2004), plus another time during the strike. Judge already had another 50 homer season too, and I wouldn't be surprised if he got a third before his career is over.

60 homer seasons don't just happen. They happen when everything goes right and falls into place for a guy who's already one of the best sluggers in MLB history (or Roger Maris ;-)
   32. Walt Davis Posted: September 24, 2022 at 03:18 PM (#6097765)
The thing with this article - and why virtually none of the guys listed really has any chance - is that "regular" power hitters (say, the perennial 35-45 homer guys) don't just get lucky and/or have a career year and fluke their way into a 60 homer season. You basically have to be a true talent 50 homer level guy, and there's only been a dozen or so of those players in MLB history.

True but not all 50-HR guys start out as 50-HR guys. Mac, Alonso and Judge I suppose have although Alonso was 24 and Judge 25. So Rodriguez or Soto or maybe Acuna are extra unlikely to hit 60 as the hitters they are right now but give them a couple of years and let's see. Buxton had just 38 HR in his first 1369 PA so not even a 20-HR guy ... now it's 60 in his last 771 spread over 3 seasons. Of course this might be the end of his big power peak and just a shame most of it lost to injury.

Judge is extra incredible because he only makes contact about 60% of the time, closer to 50% in his first 50+ season. In those two years, his HR/FB was 25%. That's what Sosa did in his 3 60+ years. McGwire did that regularly, even cracked 30% a couple of times -- I assume he has the career record of the HR/FB era (he's about 3% ahead of Thome; even ahead of Judge). McGwire averaged 49.5 per 650 PA; Judge is on 45.5.
   33. Walt Davis Posted: September 24, 2022 at 03:23 PM (#6097767)
HR/FB 2022

Judge 26.1%
Schwarber 20.8
Alvarez 18.9
Wisdom 17.5
Goldschmidt/Tellez/Walkter 16.7

That's how you get a 20 HR lead.
   34. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 24, 2022 at 04:19 PM (#6097783)
I dont think anyone would have thought of Sammy Sosa as a "true talent" 50 HR guy when he came up. Hack WIlson would not have struck you as a 50 HR guy until the NL exploded in hitting. what about Hank Greenberg?

SO I guess you're not a 50 HR guy until you hit 50 HRs. Kind of self fulfilling.
   35. Ron J Posted: September 24, 2022 at 07:19 PM (#6097845)
Oh Greenberg would certainly have been seen as a major power threat. They didn't pay too much attention to minor league power numbers (and context matters -- some A Ball parks were extreme hitter's parks. Beaumont doesn't seem to have been one). But any time a 20 year old hits 39 HR anywhere people take note.

Sosa was just so raw when he came up. You heard a lot of, when he fills out, who knows? (He's listed at 165 and he obviously was quite a bit bigger in his prime). And when an utterly undisciplined ( 138K/ 32 unintentional walks) 24 year old hits 33 HR, well. The odds are he never does much but there were specific correctable issues with his offensive game.

In his big years it was more gaining control of the strike zone than anything else. His prime looks a lot like what you saw with players working with Ted Williams. Though interestingly his strikeouts were actually higher in his big years, this was less additional swings and misses and more taking pitches he couldn't drive.

EDIT: Also, Wilson didn't spend a lot of time in the minors. But before the Giants bought him, he did have a year where he hit 30 HR in 322 AB. Weak league, but he wasn't facing kids. He was quite a bit better than most of his teammates. I'm certain he was regarded as having power potential. His career was held up for a few years because McGraw was more hung up about what he couldn't do well (field) than what he could do (and McGraw had options) and the Polo Grounds required a very specific kind of swing to take advantage of.

Wilson's 56 was a 35 HR guy having a fluke year, helped by the fact that they'd juiced the ball in 1930 (beyond what it had been before). HR were up 18% league wide from 1929. (which in turn were well up from 1928. The NL made no secret that they were juicing the ball)
   36. Booey Posted: September 24, 2022 at 07:41 PM (#6097855)
#34 - Sort of, but I think it's reasonable to expect that a player's career year might be one level above their established level of performance, so if a perennial 30 homer guy (say, Paul Goldschmidt or Manny Machado) had a career year where he cranks out 40-45, it's not THAT surprising (Chipper Jones in 1999 would be a good example). So by that token, any perennial 40 homer guy has a potential 50 homer season in him. For example, I always thought Thome would eventually hit 50, even before he did. With seven 40 homer seasons, it's actually a little surprising that Pujols never did hit 50 (ditto with Aaron and Killebrew, who each had 8). So for me to suspect that someone even has an outside shot at a 60 homer season, they'd need to have already shown 50 homer power, as Ruth, McGwire, and Judge already had. Sosa and Bonds record breaking seasons were more surprising at the time (although the subsequent years retroactively made them less so, of course), but they weren't completely out of the blue, either. People put too much focus on Sammy's off year in 1997 (36 homers); in 1995 he had 36 in 144 games (a pace for 42 in a full season), and in 1996 he had 40 in 124 games (a pace for around 50). Ditto with Bonds; he had 46 in 1993, was on pace for 50+ in 1994, and had 49 in 143 games in 2000. He'd shown 50 homer potential already, even if he'd never actually done it.

Greenberg - He had 41 in his last full season before missing 4 peak years to the war, and then 44 in his first full season back. He very well might have added another 50 homer season during those missing years.

Wilson - Yeah, he's up there with Maris - behind only Brady Anderson and Luis Gonzales - as the flukiest 50 homer seasons ever. Jose Bautista and Chris Davis looked pretty out of the blue at the time too (less so later).
   37. BDC Posted: September 24, 2022 at 08:38 PM (#6097859)
I wonder what Maris' true talent was. He only reached 150 games played in three of his 12 seasons in the majors. In 1960 he won (and deserved) an MVP in only 131 games started plus five PH appearances (with no HRs). His 39 HR in 131 starts would have been a pace of 48 in 162 – and indeed in '61 he got to start 160 games. 1961 may simply have been the year he was most healthy.

Obviously it's rare for somebody to have two years that good and never reach that level again, and unique for a 60-HR guy; but the general pattern isn't unheard of. Christian Yelich is similar: only two seasons with 150 games, then two at an MVP level, and after that, unfortunately, a constant battle to get back from injury.
   38. Ron J Posted: September 24, 2022 at 08:40 PM (#6097860)
#36 Bonds was something I've never really seen before. It wasn't simply a matter of getting stronger. He completely retooled his game (and he had been pretty successful). Essentially becoming a launch angle player before that was a thing. He started hitting more fly balls and got better results when hitting them.

But what was truly remarkable was how hard he swung combined with a very low miss rate. He and prime Pujols were the only two guys who consistently hit the ball hard while consistently making contact when they swung. And Bonds was swinging a lot harder than Pujols.

I often talk about how hard it is for hitters to change what got them to the majors and Bonds did it with no sign of struggle.

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