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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Monday, February 13, 2023MLB makes extra-innings ghost runner rule permanent for regular-season games, per report
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: February 13, 2023 at 03:01 PM | 40 comment(s)
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1. The Yankee Clapper Posted: February 13, 2023 at 03:06 PM (#6116932)It's either the zombie runner or the Manfred Man.
As long as we've entered The Curmudgeon Zone, I don't like either of those options for the same reason - they are both being clever with something that does not deserve it. The article points out that if the placed runner scores it is an unearned run, and that is because the runner is an unearned runner, and that is what I call it. The Unearned Runner. Boring, just like Rob Manfred's attempts to "improve" the game.
Because 18 inning games are awesome, and there's only one or two per team per season. Once a game starts stretching past midnight, things get weird, folks are out of position, somebody has an amazing (or horrific) line for the day, the next day's starter starts to warm up, there's a 14th inning stretch, what audience is left becomes a big factor as the rest of the city gets quiet, you start laughing maniacally at improbable things... I mean, why give that up?
There aren't very many extra inning games. There are drastically fewer that go longer than 11. You're trading the occasional inconvenient game that sticks in someone's memory for a little more efficiency and predictability, and who wants their sports and entertainment to be efficient and predictable?
That's not a study but a reduction from 37 in one season (even if it's typical) to 7 across 2.4 seasons is a huge effect. But sure, the reduction is, almost by definition, trivial. Whatever proportion of games used to end in 10 innnings can't be reduced. We see hear that only about 2.5 games per team season went past 12. So some 11s became 10s and some 12s became 10-11s. Each team is playing an average of 16 a year. So across the whole thing, you'd probably be lucky to reduce it by as much as 8 innings total.
As noted, all of this is really about pitcher usage. About 40 batters a game, with most SPs now limited to about 22 batters, you're going through 6 of (at best) 9 "available" pitchers in a lot of normal 9-inning games. So sure, it's true that neither teams, players or braodcasters want some schlub (or the SP for day after tomorrow) out there for 6 extra innings all so 500 fans can stick around until 2 in the morning once a year (maybe only to see the game suspended). All of this more impossible with a fully balanced schedule. East Coast people apparently can't stay awake after 10:30 pm as it is (to hear folks around here tell it) so broadcasters don't want it either. And please, Fox wants this ####### playoff game over thank you very much.
Sure, it's not real baseball and I hate it. But to be fair, for the late 2010s, the extra inning games I saw tended to be really boring with K after K after K and I'd never have been awake for Rick Camp's HR anyway even 30 years ago, I wouldn't stand a chance now.
What I dislike about it is that it has made the extras a mockery of baseball. In 2022 594 RA (208 ER) in 528 extra IP. Baseball is not a game in which you're supposed to score a run per inning.
In answer to the earlier question -- 891 extra IP in 2019 so a savings over 350 IP, 2022 v 2019. Both 2018 and 2019 were high (relative to 2018 and 2017 at least) so somewhere around 800 might have been more typical. In practical terms, it's taken a game that used to last a bit more than 11 innings and turnned it into one that lasts a little more than 10.
EDIT: The high scoring suggests either start the MM in the 11th or at least put him on first in the 10th. Of course that might lead to an explosion of sac bunts and nobody wants that either.
One of them eventually has to, no?
Not necessarily. The only thing that matters* is what method ends game the quickest. Putting a man on first might actually lead to longer games.
*Please don't interpret this as an endorsement of the abomination that is the Zombie Runner, just an observation of how well it's achieving its aims.
If this rule actually seemed to add any strategy to the late game, I might come around on it...but from the handful of games I remember, it seems almost like the visiting team takes their shot in the top of the 10th and if they don't score there, just cross their fingers that whoever's on the mound can get 3 outs before someone gets a base hit.
The next best gimmick would be soccer penalty kicks.
Thats HR derby in MLB, presumably pitched by your own team's pitching coach or hitting coach since you're trying to hit one. I would be impressed as #### to see penalty kicks as the next guy by MLBers. It might even get Franmil Reyes back in the game as a goalie since he's huge. But, I mean, you know Trout is going to slip trying to kick one and miss 105 games or something tearing his hamstring so its a bad idea.
You have never been more incorrect. Ghost runners are glorious creations, done by young boys and girls so intent on playing the game they devise brilliant rules out of necessity.
This is, in every way, the opposite of that. These do not deserve the exalted title of ghost runner.
Is he revved up like a douche right before he comes in the game?
He'll consider it.
What am I saying, I tend to leave games after four innings, it's my bedtime :-D
Walt, you're touching on the thing I wonder about: the games are being played in fewer innings, but are they actually taking less time? I saw a study which was done after the 2020 season which was inconclusive, and now I've found this from Jay Jaffe at FanGraphs:
This article is from May 2021, so there is another season and a half of data to help solve the case. So, I used Stathead to check the numbers for the 2021 and 2022 seasons. There were 216 extra-inning games in each season (unless I screwed something up that I can't find). In 2021 those games averaged 229.5 minutes, and in 2022 the average time was 218.4 minutes.
However, it's also important to consider that the average game length for all games was 191 minutes in 2021, and dropped to 185 minutes in 2022. Which suggests to me that while extra-inning games are shorter, it's still a modest decrease. For me, it's not worth it, because the artifice of the Unearned Runner is annoying and because the chance of something crazy like an extra-long game is dramatically undercut.
EDIT: ) mean why — as a fan — would one want to do that? I understand the incentives that other stakeholders have.
There's also the possibility, if very remote, of a starter losing a "perfect" game without putting on a single baserunner - ghostie takes 3rd on a grounder to 2B and scores on a sac fly. Yuck!
And there are so few that even if I loved them, I wouldn't miss them. So if you want to find a way to shorten the game, fine. Call it a tie after 11 or 12 innings. Ties are fine.
Fully agreed. There's even an extra benefit to ties now that the league has disposed of the end-of-season single-game playoff as a tiebreaker; having ties included in team results make it inherently less likely that you'll have to use a statistical tiebreaker at the end of the year.
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