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Wednesday, December 02, 2020

MLB non-tender deadline tracker: Yankees will keep Gary Sanchez; White Sox, Twins, Cubs make notable cuts

Notable non-tenders so far:

CLE - Tyler Naquin
CHW - Carlos Rodon, Nomar Mazar
CHC - Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora
KCR - Maikel Franco

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 02, 2020 at 06:21 PM | 39 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: non-tenders

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   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 02, 2020 at 06:40 PM (#5992121)
ATL - Adam Duvall
SDP - Greg Garcia
   2. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2020 at 08:00 PM (#5992136)
Rodon certainly worth a NRI and quite possibly $1-2 M guaranteed (dependent on physical) to see if he's healthy. But if they thought he was healthy, the Sox probably would have kept him at $4.

It's unfortunate it's come to this with Schwarber but the bat just hasn't developed into a consistent force. I see the Braves have cited uncertainty about the NL DH in their Duvall decision and the Cubs are in the same spot with Schwarber. If the NL adopts the DH then I won't be surprised if they sign him for a few million. I will though say that his defense has been better than I expected all those years ago.
   3. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 02, 2020 at 08:11 PM (#5992143)
David Dahl is a surprise. Was an All-Star in 2019, just 26. Trouble staying healthy.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2020 at 08:11 PM (#5992144)
One site says the Padres have decided to keep Pham. Brewers: Arcia signed a pre-tender deal at $2 M and Narvaez at $2.5, both 10% cuts -- the worst they could have done in arb. They're also apparently keeping Vogelbach at $1.4 -- I guess they think the DH is coming back. Royals keeping Soler at 1/$8 (deal signed). Cubs have apparently signed Colin Rea and the Mets Matz ($5.2).
   5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 02, 2020 at 08:13 PM (#5992145)
Archie Bradley another surprise nontender
   6. shoelesjoe Posted: December 02, 2020 at 08:17 PM (#5992147)
Hanser Alberto nontendered by the Orioles.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2020 at 08:24 PM (#5992151)
Cle: DeShields, JRod
Hou: I missed/forgot the news thay out-righted Osuna.

KCR: Franco already reported but I hadn't realized he hit decently in 2020 and I'm not sure I believe it but TZ has him decent at 3B the last 4 seasons and DRS 3 of the last 4. Seems well worth a flyer for 1B/3B/DH.

DeShields is somewhere in that 5th, 4th, well somebody has to start in CF range. I won't be shocked if he lands on the Cubs although he's very Almorish (should be a word). JRod's arm must be toast because he's not even arb-eligible (or is he on a naughty list?)
   8. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2020 at 08:30 PM (#5992153)
Alberto is a bit of a surprise -- 3.4 WAR, 1.1 WAA over his last 780 PA and he'd only cost about $3. Cubs could do worse than adding him to the mix.
   9. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 02, 2020 at 08:30 PM (#5992154)
I think the Royals are going to bring Franco back on a cheaper deal, I don't know what else the plan would be at 3B. Franco was well liked in the clubhouse, hit well, and no one else is ready. He's a good stop gap til Bobby Witt, Jr. is ready.
   10. asinwreck Posted: December 02, 2020 at 08:34 PM (#5992156)
Ryan Tepera got a vote for MVP and non-tendered in the same year.
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 02, 2020 at 08:36 PM (#5992157)
ATL - Adam Duvall
BAL - Hanser Alberto
CHC - Ryan Tepera, Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora, Jose Martinez
CHW - Carlos Rodon, Nomar Mazara
CIN - Kyle Farmer, Curt Casali, Archie Bradley, Brian Goodwin, RJ Alaniz
CLE - Delino Deshields, Jefrey Rodriguez, Tyler Naquin
COL - David Dahl, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Tony Wolters
KCR - Maikel Franco, Bubba Starling, Jeison Guzman, Erick Mejia
LAA - Hansel Robles, Kenyan Middleton, Justin Anderson, Matt Andriese, Hoby Milner
MIA - Ryne Stanek
MIL - Corey Knebel
MIN - Eddie Rosario, Matt Wisler
NYM - Nick Tropeano, Chasen Shreve, Paul Sewald, Ariel Jurado
NYY - Jonathan Holder
PIT - Clay Holmes
SDP - Greg Garcia
TBR - Edgar Garcia
TEX - Jimmy Herget, Scott Heineman, Danny Santana
TOR - Travis Shaw, AJ Cole
   12. salvomania Posted: December 02, 2020 at 08:53 PM (#5992165)
Alberto is a bit of a surprise

Hanser Alberto, or Alberto Alomora?
   13. puck Posted: December 02, 2020 at 08:58 PM (#5992166)
David Dahl! Always hurt, seems like relies on a high BABIP. But he has talent. He was one of the few players the Rockies had that could pull off an RC+ of 100 or better.
   14. puck Posted: December 02, 2020 at 09:02 PM (#5992167)
BTW, I haven't seen Tom Nawrocki post in a while. I hope he is ok, just sick of the intertubes or something.
   15. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 02, 2020 at 09:51 PM (#5992179)
Brewers didn't non-tender Knebel, they traded him to the Dodgers

MIL - Ben Gamel, Alex Claudio and Jace Peterson,
SFG - Tyler Anderson
   16. Brian C Posted: December 02, 2020 at 09:55 PM (#5992181)
Rough day for the Cubs when it comes to non-tendering two former top-6 picks at the same time. Seems like that probably doesn't happen very often.
   17. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2020 at 10:48 PM (#5992191)
Coulda had the trifecta with Bryant.
   18. Zonk Opposes Trial by Combat Posted: December 03, 2020 at 09:07 AM (#5992224)
Very sad day because however it didn't become Thome2 -- I'll miss the Schwarbird.... Didn't even get a final de-cloaking.

Sigh. I'm sure he'll go somewhere now and turn into Nelson Cruz or JD Martinez.

Oh well, I guess this just means my Cub fandom will sink further into OOTP fantasy.... where Schwarber is coming off a 5 WAR 2020 and Almora a 2.5 WAR Steve Finley-lite season... though, I'm planning to let both walk when they hit FA and pocket the picks.
   19. Zonk Opposes Trial by Combat Posted: December 03, 2020 at 09:09 AM (#5992225)
Still, strictly for purposes of highlights? Schwarber's scoreboard moonshot in 2015 and his monumental WS return with a couple of key hits in 2016 are a pretty damn fine memories peak, at least.
   20. Charles S. is not doing chainsaw bears any more Posted: December 03, 2020 at 09:42 AM (#5992228)
The Cubs should sign Ben Gamel. Not to play for them, but just to lock him in a basement somewhere so he won't hit bloop doubles against them at exactly the wrong time.
   21. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 03, 2020 at 09:46 AM (#5992231)
Interesting.

@BaseballValues
Based on our modeling, the average non-tendered player had a trade value of $-0.6M. In other words, on paper, most were not worth their estimated arbitration prices (with a few exceptions).
   22. Nasty Nate Posted: December 03, 2020 at 09:50 AM (#5992232)
We don't need a model to tell us that non-tendered players don't have trade value.
   23. Khrushin it bro Posted: December 03, 2020 at 10:47 AM (#5992234)
Seems like the models should use these players to figure out replacement level.
   24. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 03, 2020 at 10:55 AM (#5992236)
@JonMeoli

Mike Elias is full of praise for Hanser Alberto and said they're interested in bringing him back, but "part of our job is to operate within the economic framework of the collective bargaining agreement." #Orioles


How can you not be romantic about baseball?
   25. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: December 03, 2020 at 02:03 PM (#5992274)
The Cubs should sign Ben Gamel. Not to play for them, but just to lock him in a basement somewhere so he won't hit bloop doubles against them at exactly the wrong time.
I shudder to think what Ben Gamel would look like after being locked in a basement for a few years.
   26. Walt Davis Posted: December 03, 2020 at 05:54 PM (#5992328)
he won't hit bloop doubles against them at exactly the wrong time.

I fear it may be a long time before the Cubs have a "wrong time" for something to happen.

Seems like the models should use these players to figure out replacement level.

Not replacement level -- these guys are non-tendered because they will cost "too much." $/WAR maybe, or more explicitly $/WAR for the 1-2 WAR player. That the clearly average Rosario isn't worth 1/$10 to anybody suggests that $/WAR at this end of the market can't be higher than $6 and maybe as low as $4. But the Cubs didn't non-tender Schwarber in the belief they have a min-salary player that will produce just as well (I'm pretty sure we don't have one), they did so either to save money even at the loss of a win or two or because they think they will be able to get Schwarber or Duvall or similar at a lower salary.

Of course mucking up any analysis of this is covid. Non-tendering does seem a bit more ruthless this year. I'm not sure that's actually true but it seems to me that in years past, Rosario and Hand would have been safe and the Cubs would rather gamble on a Schwarber breakout. But what appears to be "ruthless" might just be either post-covid market reality (of the short or long-term variety).

I think one thing that may need to happen before the market can really clear is that MLB-MLBPA come to a contingency agreement on how payroll will work in the likely event of some combination of shortened season and limited attendance (i.e. pro-rate salaries to %league revenues). It would be a lot easier to accept Rosario at 1/$10 knowing that you will only actually have to pay him a pro-rated amount of MLB revenue -- which is not to say he would have been tendered in that scenario, just that it's extra risky to tender him without such an agreement in place. And obviously clarifying the NL DH question will help clarify things for Schwarber, Duvall and maybe a couple of other guys.
   27. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: December 03, 2020 at 06:03 PM (#5992331)
I think Rosario would've been non-tendered no matter what - but not Hand.
   28. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 03, 2020 at 06:42 PM (#5992338)
IIRC, in the 90s, fairly decent players coming off poor seasons would get non-tendered all the time. I remember Curt Schilling won 16 games in 1993, but was non-tendered and re-signed after being hurt in 1995. Todd Zeile, Ben McDonald and Mark Whiten were also non-tendered after down seasons that year. David Ortiz was famously non-tendered by the Twins and scooped up by the Red Sox.
   29. Walt Davis Posted: December 03, 2020 at 09:02 PM (#5992352)
Sure, coming off poor/injured seasons, it happens all the time or, like those Brewers players, they just settle for the same or slightly less than what they got before even getting to tender. But Rosario had 0.9 WAR, 0.4 WAA; Hand had a 2.05 ERA ... which was much worse than his 1.37 FIP. Hand admittedly depends on how much you think saves are actually worth -- an equivalent middle reliever in arb wouldn't make $10 M ... but they would in FA (pre-covid).

The Twins did non-tender Ortiz but then he'd only been worth 2.6 WAR, -3.4 WAA to that point. He was coming off his best season of 1.3 WAR, -0.3 WAA. How much that was a money move and how much a "this guy's just not very good" move I don't recall. The Twins were a very good team in those days and that next season they got 4.1 WAR at 1B (mostly Mientkiewicz) and 1.8 at DH (mostly LeCroy and Kielty) and had Morneau on the way (115 PAs in 2003). And the Red Sox were so impressed with Ortiz that he started only 28 of their first 53 games (and just a 797 OPS). If Jeremy Giambi had hit, Ortiz might never have gotten the chance to become Ortiz.

In short, through 2002, Ortiz had been a bit worse than Schwarber and, in the first two months of 2003, he was off to a typical David Ortiz season to that point. Maybe Giambi made the mistake of sharing his milkshake recipe with Ortiz. :-)
   30. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: December 03, 2020 at 09:05 PM (#5992353)
It would be a lot easier to accept Rosario at 1/$10 knowing that you will only actually have to pay him a pro-rated amount of MLB revenue


Couldn't you just put this in the contract? Everyone knows that 2021 is likely to be a mess. It's unlikely that players and teams have the same estimate of just what kind of a mess, which you'd think would leave room for some creative contracts that both sides would find acceptable (because both sides will predict that the other side is mis-judging just what kind of a mess we're going to face).
   31. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 04, 2020 at 01:35 AM (#5992373)
MIL - Corey Knebel


Nope, he got traded to the Dodgers who did tender him.
   32. McCoy Posted: December 04, 2020 at 08:07 AM (#5992382)
At one point in time Theo thought Schwarber and Almora were major pieces of a great team, along with Russell. Kind of funny how baseball works.
   33. Zonk Opposes Trial by Combat Posted: December 04, 2020 at 10:08 AM (#5992405)
Well, technically -- from 2015-2016-2017 -- they kind of were (too generous a description of Almora, I grant)...
   34. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 04, 2020 at 10:12 AM (#5992409)
Jayson Stark notes that half the non-tenders, and half the savings came from teams in the AL/NL Central.
   35. TJ Posted: December 04, 2020 at 11:16 AM (#5992420)
This could be a nice opportunity for my beloved Detroit Tigers. While their pitching prospects should be up for 2021, their best position prospects (Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene) are probably a year away. The young pitchers can use better support as they develop until the position prospects arrive. There are a few intriguing non-tenders who could help- Kyle Schwarber could play left field (he can’t be worse defensively than Christen Stewart) or go to first base if Jeimar Candelario’s good 2020 turns out to be a mirage. Hansen Alberto could take over at second base (Niko Goodrum is better suited as a super utility guy). The Tigers could really use Archie Bradley to bolster the pen in support of the young pitchers. None should cost a ton in terms of money or years, all are young enough to still have some potential, and each would make a good trade chip for a prospect should they play well. The Tigers are shedding a lot of dead money this year by finally getting out from under The Jordan Zimmerman deal, so they will have some money to spend if they choose to. This is exactly the type of situation a team like Detroit should exploit if they are serious about giving their young pitchers a more competitive team behind them...

   36. McCoy Posted: December 04, 2020 at 11:59 AM (#5992427)
Re 33. Only Addison produced during that time and Theo was talking longer term than the 8mmediate future.

In the book about how the 2016 Cubs got made Theo says Addison, Happ, Schwarber, and Almora would all be cornerstones of the future but they needed something for the here and now. They got Heyward.
   37. Walt Davis Posted: December 04, 2020 at 08:47 PM (#5992521)
Couldn't you just put this in the contract?

I think probably not. I'm too lazy to look up UPC language but I'd be surprised if it's not about a "championship season." You could do it as games played incentives I guess but the player won't accept that under those circumstances -- they'll want a full guaranteed amount if there's a full season regardless of how many they play. I'm pretty sure it will have to be a league-wide (via MLB/MLBPA negotiation) cut. It's probably inefficient as well -- if it's a shortened, reduced attendance season, everybody knows some agreement will get worked out so why go to the trouble of negotiating separate ones, especially if they only apply to 1-year contracts (or at least newly signed contracts).

I probably shouldn't have written "a lot easier" though -- "easier" is fine; maybe even a "bit easier." Everybody knows an agreement will come, they just don't know if it's gonna be 80%, 60%, 40%; don't know for sure if the union will get suchered into 60% pay for 80% games; don't know if there will be extra playoffs; etc.
   38. Walt Davis Posted: December 04, 2020 at 09:19 PM (#5992524)
#34: 'Savings" is not quite right. As we know, there were no actual obligations and the teams will end up spending something to fill these roles. Some of those replacements will be min salary ("free") but some will be FAs or filled via trade. Maybe the Cubs get Scwarber back at $5 or sign Duvall for $5 or sign two $3 M guys to replace Schwarber and Almora which would be a "savings" of $4-5 M over what they would have had to pay in arb ... or a savings of $2.5-3.5 M over what those two cost them in 2020 non-covid.

The link is behind the paywall so maybe the article did this, but you'd need to break it down into some sort of categories around money/performance. If by random chance, only Central teams had players in the Schwarber/Rosario bucket, then they aren't part of a legit comparison. Also every team decided to pass on Rosario and Hand when they could have grabbed them off of waivers so it's hard to argue they would have met different fates if they'd been in the West or East.

And of course I wouldn't be surprised if the Central teams usually had more non-tenders -- other than the Cubs, there's no big market here. In 2019, 5 Central teams were among the bottom 9 in attendance (Cards, Cubs, Brewers were all in the top 7 though), mabye a little better by payroll (6-7 in the bottom half, but only the Cubs in the top 8). The most recent list I found was 2015 (and I don't vouch for its accuracy) but the 5 lowest population ML metro areas were in the Central. By Forbes, 6 of the 9 lowest valuations are in the Central. Regarding financial matters, the Centrals should always be lagging. Maybe not to the extent they have in this one instance (and certainly not the Cubs) but lagging.
   39. Lowry Seasoning Salt Posted: December 05, 2020 at 01:20 AM (#5992544)
And of course I wouldn't be surprised if the Central teams usually had more non-tenders -- other than the Cubs, there's no big market here. In 2019, 5 Central teams were among the bottom 9 in attendance (Cards, Cubs, Brewers were all in the top 7 though), mabye a little better by payroll (6-7 in the bottom half, but only the Cubs in the top 8). The most recent list I found was 2015 (and I don't vouch for its accuracy) but the 5 lowest population ML metro areas were in the Central. By Forbes, 6 of the 9 lowest valuations are in the Central. Regarding financial matters, the Centrals should always be lagging. Maybe not to the extent they have in this one instance (and certainly not the Cubs) but lagging.


In terms of the Central-based factors, the article (with quotes from an anonymous executive) gets into a number of considerations for all the non-tenders coming from that region.

1. Six of the eight smallest MLB TV markets are in the Central.
2. So many Central teams have smaller TV deals, thus rely more on attendance. And we know how that did last year.
3. There was no revenue sharing among teams last year.
4. The Central divisions aren't as strong anyway, so spending extra to outdo a division rival is less prevalent.

Which ultimately leads the article to your point: "Regarding financial matters, the Centrals should always be lagging." The final matter was that this should be a concern, to be addressed some other time in some other article.

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