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Thursday, March 23, 2023

MLB Pipeline: Ranking all 30 farm systems

The Orioles retain the top spot in the MLB Pipeline Farm System Rankings for the fourth consecutive time between preseason and midseason lists. Since Pipeline began ranking systems in 2015, only one other organization has claimed No. 1 four times in a row, and that was the Padres (2018 pre/mid, 2019 pre/mid). Baltimore and San Diego are also now tied with the most No. 1 rankings with four each; the Rays (three) are the only other club with more than one.

The baseball world caught sight of what’s coming to Charm City last year, when Adley Rutschman became AL Rookie of the Year runner-up and new No. 1 overall prospect Gunnar Henderson debuted in August. The result: a 31-win increase over 2021. There’s lots more where those two came from as the club attempts to return to the postseason for the first time since 2016.

The Dodgers claim the No. 2 spot for a second straight rankings, while the D-backs leapfrog over the Guardians and Reds into the Top 3.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 23, 2023 at 11:49 AM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: minor leagues, organizational rankings

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: March 23, 2023 at 02:53 PM (#6121179)
The Dodgers claim the No. 2 spot for a second straight rankings

Like all small market teams, this is critical for them as they can't afford to keep their FAs -- Turner, Seager, Scherzer, Jansen. They even had to non-tender Bellinger because he ws getting "expensive." It's great to see so much success in Tampa West.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: March 23, 2023 at 03:07 PM (#6121181)
Far be it from me to empathize with the Cards but ... this apparently is their first time in the top 10. Probably no organization has more consistently produced ML-level talent than the Cards. Granted they have not produced a lot of elite talent but they produce one above-average IF and one above-average OF per year it seems (Lars Nootbar??!!!) Now they have finally cracked the top 10 -- thanks to having 5 (five!) top 100 prospects. If they have their usual depth as well, this is probably closer to #3 than to #9. I mean they have a 5th rounder from 2021 already in the top 100.

The Cubs are a respectable but boring 12th. A depth system for now.
   3. Walt Davis Posted: March 23, 2023 at 03:16 PM (#6121182)
Out of the top 100: Three are listed as 1B, one of those a C/1B. There are only 2 "pure" 2B but a few SS/2B (presumably original SS about to be come 2B) and some other 2B combos. There are 22 guys with SS listed as one of their positions and 9 Cs. I got 25 RHP and 4 LHP. The Pirates Endy Rodriguez is at #55 and listed as a C/2B/OF so he could be fun.
   4. Hombre Brotani Posted: March 23, 2023 at 03:30 PM (#6121186)
I think the Angels have been a bottom-10 team in this category every year for over a decade.
   5. Astroenteritis Posted: March 23, 2023 at 03:47 PM (#6121189)
As an Astros fan it's been interesting watching the progress of the Orioles. It feels very familiar. The biggest difference is they play in the AL East, so they have a much tougher path to travel.
   6. BDC Posted: March 23, 2023 at 04:24 PM (#6121197)
The Rangers come in at 7th, a great improvement from a few years ago: yet it is based on depth, not top talent. Every other club down to #22 on the list has a higher-ranked prospect, sometimes two. And as I've been noting, their top prospect, Josh Jung, is already their starting third baseman; he took over on Sept. 9th, batted 204/.235/.418 the rest of the way, and they went 9-16 with him in the lineup. So should he still count as a farm-system element? I guess till he's no longer a rookie …

Nah, that's probably irrelevant, Jung should be good. Their ML outfield is not good aside from Adolis Garcia, so they should improve there just by bringing a couple of guys up; and I would be amazed if none of their pitching prospects eventually became stars. It's not a bad situation; they just continue lack a superstar position-player prospect like so many who have surfaced lately, a Tatis/Soto/Vlad Jr./Wander-Franco type.
   7. cardsfanboy Posted: March 23, 2023 at 05:31 PM (#6121206)
One thing I want to see someday is a ranking of "organizations" that doesn't focus solely on rankings of current prospects.

As #2 points out... in a way. I would love to see someone rank not just current prospects but recent past success, whether the player is still with the organization to gauge the quality of the organization as a whole at building and developing players.

As a Cardinal fan, the sheer number of players this organization has developed and pumped out into starting players, seems to be drastically larger than pretty much every organization out there... or at least top three. (heck 2021 al roy--and 4th place , 2022 nl cy young--and 5th place, were all Cardinal prospects traded away)

Their ML outfield is not good aside from Adolis Garcia
(the 4th place finisher in 2021 al roy)
   8. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: March 23, 2023 at 07:25 PM (#6121215)
Nice to see the Red Sox as the very definition of mediocrity, sitting smack bang in the middle at 16. Their attempts at being Tampa north has yet to be overly inspiring.
   9. Howie Menckel Posted: March 23, 2023 at 08:54 PM (#6121220)
the Mets are 11th

Top 100 prospects: Francisco Álvarez, C (No. 3); Brett Baty, 3B (No. 21); Kevin Parada, C (No. 36); Alex Ramirez, OF (No. 96).

#bat #bat(y) #bat #bat

Maybe they can pull off a "Chisholm for Gallen" type of swap as the Marlins and Diamondbacks pulled off beautifully a few years ago. the Marlins are still pitching-heavy and the DBacks hitting-heavy anyway, so quite the deal that helped both teams!
   10. Walt Davis Posted: March 23, 2023 at 09:31 PM (#6121230)
To be fair to the authors, they do write: solidifying St. Louis’ reputation as a master drafter and developer. So it's more surprising to me that they recognize this yet it's the first time they've put them in the top 10. It is of course possible to draft "well" and develop and not have a top system due to drafting late (the Dodgers say hi!) but still you'd think they'd have cracked through before. I assume the Braves have had some top 10 rankings with all the talent they've produced ... and now they're all the way down at #30.
   11. base ball chick Posted: March 24, 2023 at 11:09 AM (#6121253)
agree there should be some kind of adjustment for how many actual minor leaguers get to the majors and have at least a cup of coffee each year. a whole LOT of the astros now major leaguers were not "prospects" like, say, altuve. or jake meyers. or chaz mccormick. when the list sticks to designated "prospects" it is, in mah not so umble opinyin, mostly to show how well the guessers did with the guesses, not actual success at developing major leaguers no matter whether they were ranked or not.

Always seemed to me that pimpees are obsessed over because the Organizations and the prospect evaluators are concerned with being "right"
   12. SoSH U at work Posted: March 24, 2023 at 02:26 PM (#6121281)
One thing I want to see someday is a ranking of "organizations" that doesn't focus solely on rankings of current prospects.

Does anyone rank development? With all the prospect rankings around, it would be ridiculous if some website isn't evaluating how well teams turn raw materials into big leaguers.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: March 24, 2023 at 03:37 PM (#6121288)
Callis has generally been pretty good on that front, putting more emphasis on ML readiness and less on potential relative to most of the prospect lists. It's a bit surprising to see 16-yo Derniche Valdez at #19 on the Cubs' list but #19 on a team list rarely becomes anything.

I don't know if the prospect lists do a better job or ML organizations are doing a better job but guys at the top of the lists seem to be paying off at higher rates and it seems like more of the guys around #50 are turning into good/solid players too. (Obviously nobody can predict future injuries.)

I agree with the general sentiment but a guy like Altuve debuted in 2011, was signed in 2007 and is now under at least his 4th Atros' GM -- he doesn't really tell us anything about the current state of the Astros' draft/develop operation. But for sure, that the production line has continued with Tucker, Alvarez, Pena and all the pitchers means they are still doing something very right.

I suppose what I might find "ideal" is a set of rankings for "impact in 2023," "impact in 2024-25," "big impact players," "depth" and maybe something that captures turning straw into gold.** If they want to then combine those 4 into an overall ranking, that's fine with me. But sure just one that separates "drafted well" and "developed well" would be a step in the right direction.

One area where current rankings have an issue is in "crediting" an organization with talent acquired -- the Cubs will deserve some credit if Hayden Wesneski turns into a very good pitcher but not a lot. (Surprised Wesneski is not in the top 100, he looked outstanding last year and so far this spring.) The Cubs as an overall organization deserve credit for acquiring him but it doesn't tell us anything about their draft/develop.

** A top prospect who was also a #1 draft pick or a major international signing is expected and doesn't necessarily reflect anything except draft slot or bonus money available. But the Cards turning a 5th round guy from just 2021 into #79 entering 2023 sounds nearly miraculous to me. (Unless he was some sort of signability pick.)
   14. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 24, 2023 at 03:52 PM (#6121289)
One thing I want to see someday is a ranking of "organizations" that doesn't focus solely on rankings of current prospects.

MLB 26-and-under power rankings: Which clubs have the best young players?
   15. base ball chick Posted: March 24, 2023 at 04:02 PM (#6121290)

if you know one, let me know. i remember looking around like 15 years ago when i was writing my blog and there was nothing i could find. i did my own write up on the astros for the previous 10 years using results from the drafts, because we didn't have list of furrinerz signed that was available. the astros record with minor leaguers was really lousy. didn't have access to prospect lists back then
   16. Darren Posted: March 24, 2023 at 05:02 PM (#6121298)
Nice to see the Red Sox as the very definition of mediocrity, sitting smack bang in the middle at 16. Their attempts at being Tampa north has yet to be overly inspiring.

Better than where they were! And if they were truly Tampa North, they'd have a bunch of guys that don't look good on paper but develop into good Major Leagues. So step 1 is complete!

Overall, I'm pretty happy with a top heavy system that has recent graduate Bello and import Yoshida on the Major League club.
   17. Darren Posted: March 24, 2023 at 05:12 PM (#6121301)
The gap between scouting and projection systems on many Red Sox prospects is quite striking. ZIPS has Yoshida, Valdez, Hamilton, Hernandez, Fitzgerald, and Kavadas as far better than their scouting grades. It will be interesting to see who's right.

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