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Friday, December 20, 2019

MLB Rumors, Trades, and Signings | MLB.com

Will he really get traded?

Jim Furtado Posted: December 20, 2019 at 08:09 AM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: francisco lindor, indians, trade rumors

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 20, 2019 at 10:45 AM (#5910133)
There is something fundamentally broken in MLB when a team that won 93 games last year, and a team that won the WS in 2018, and has a top-3 revenue base, are looking to trade their best players.
   2. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: December 20, 2019 at 10:58 AM (#5910138)
I don't know how true that is. Obviously I think the Sox trading Mookie would be catastrophically stupid but every other sport has a salary cap situation that results in star players moving regularly. Lebron James has played for four different teams* in his career which is nonsense in a lot of ways. My impression is that the 10s have seen a lot more parity than we saw in the 90s and 00s.

* three really but he's changed teams three times

I think there is a better way to do it than is currently being done but I'm not convinced anything is fundamentally broken. The problem is in large part that teams (and fans in a lot of cases) have bought into the cult of youth a bit too strongly. The Sox don't need to trade Mookie to replenish their farm system, they need to keep Mookie and with X, Benintendi, Devers and JDM they will be fine.
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 20, 2019 at 11:07 AM (#5910143)
I think there is a better way to do it than is currently being done but I'm not convinced anything is fundamentally broken. The problem is in large part that teams (and fans in a lot of cases) have bought into the cult of youth a bit too strongly.

It's broken because: 1) the best players are all under reserve control and way underpaid. That's what allows the teams to play these games. 2) Small market teams get huge subsidies from the league even if they're not trying to compete. Cleveland and Miami and Tampa don't have to worry about what impact their cost cutting moves will have on attendance and ratings b/c they've got $90M p.a. coming from the league.

The league desperately needs 1) a reduction in the reserve clause period and/or a higher minimum and faster path to arb, and 2) a high salary floor.
   4. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: December 20, 2019 at 11:16 AM (#5910146)
I don't know how true that is. Obviously I think the Sox trading Mookie would be catastrophically stupid but every other sport has a salary cap situation that results in star players moving regularly. Lebron James has played for four different teams* in his career which is nonsense in a lot of ways. My impression is that the 10s have seen a lot more parity than we saw in the 90s and 00s.

* three really but he's changed teams three times


Totally different. If the Cavs traded LeBron 2 years before he became a FA, that'd be similar; also if it were the Celtics or Lakers and not the Cavs. The Pelicans traded Anthony Davis one year before he went to FA, but he forced his way out. Individual NBA players have way more power (and influence) than MLB players. Also, since there's a max contract, other factors are going to mean more to players (location, teammate, etc).

So for MLB teams - rich and/or successful teams - looking to trade guys because they don't want to pay them is a completely different thing. And I totally agree it's not good for the sport. If MLB had a cap and max salary (and I don't think they should), Mookie/Lindor/Bryant would never be preemptively traded by their teams - they'd have to force their way out in a way that doesn't really happen currently in baseball.
   5. PreservedFish Posted: December 20, 2019 at 11:20 AM (#5910147)
Lebron James has played for four different teams* in his career which is nonsense in a lot of ways.


I couldn't disagree more. LeBron James gets paid about the same no matter where he works, which seems healthy to me, and his moves seem to have been informed as much by his own personal off-court growth and interests as by work environment, which seems healthy too.
   6. PreservedFish Posted: December 20, 2019 at 11:29 AM (#5910152)
There is something fundamentally broken in MLB when a team that won 93 games last year, and a team that won the WS in 2018, and has a top-3 revenue base, are looking to trade their best players.

It seems very wrong.

But on the other hand, if a mid-revenue team can afford him, that says something about the health of MLB. For a while now we've been in a weird place with free agency, where the biggest teams have been more trigger shy than the medium teams. The Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs are all "smart" teams and in a way we should expect the biggest auctions to be won by teams that aren't as "smart," the teams that don't look at value rigidly, the ones that are more unpredictable (eg the DBacks, the Padres, the Mariners, etc).
   7. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: December 20, 2019 at 11:56 AM (#5910161)
The league desperately needs 1) a reduction in the reserve clause period and/or a higher minimum and faster path to arb, and 2) a high salary floor.


There's no necessity here. You want it, but that's all. The current situation keeps salaries (relatively) low. It funnels wins to big market teams (for whom the marginal value of a win is high), and the big market teams subsidize the small market teams for the privilege of beating up on them. If you own a team, that's a terrific arrangement. I realize that you don't identify with ownership and so have a different set of priorities, but let's not pretend that your priorities reflect anything that the league "needs" to do.
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 20, 2019 at 12:00 PM (#5910163)
It seems very wrong.

But on the other hand, if a mid-revenue team can afford him, that says something about the health of MLB. For a while now we've been in a weird place with free agency, where the biggest teams have been more trigger shy than the medium teams. The Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs are all "smart" teams and in a way we should expect the biggest auctions to be won by teams that aren't as "smart," the teams that don't look at value rigidly, the ones that are more unpredictable (eg the DBacks, the Padres, the Mariners, etc).


The counter to this is that the value of a marginal win should be much higher for the "Big-4" market teams. A Gerrit Cole driven WS win is worth way more to the Yankees than the Astros.
   9. PreservedFish Posted: December 20, 2019 at 12:02 PM (#5910164)
let's not pretend that your priorities reflect anything that the league "needs" to do.

They do to the extent that they reflect public demand.
   10. jmurph Posted: December 20, 2019 at 12:02 PM (#5910165)
Hey the margins are tight, gotta avoid that $12 million one-time tax, it could really hurt the viability of the business:
Michael Silverman @MikeSilvermanBB
Fenway Sports Group's seen an 837% growth in value, $700M to $6.6B, according to Forbes, since purchase of Red Sox 18 years ago.
That's 3rd largest - globally - for sports conglomerates, comfortably ahead of the Yankees, in 4th place at a mere $6.1B.
   11. PreservedFish Posted: December 20, 2019 at 12:04 PM (#5910166)

The counter to this is that the value of a marginal win should be much higher for the "Big-4" market teams. A Gerrit Cole driven WS win is worth way more to the Yankees than the Astros.

Is that so? I bet the Astros see much wilder swings in local revenue and ticket sales when they yo-yo from rebuilding to competing.
   12. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 20, 2019 at 12:49 PM (#5910178)
Is that so? I bet the Astros see much wilder swings in local revenue and ticket sales when they yo-yo from rebuilding to competing.

Yeah but at the same point on the win "curve" (e.g., going from 88 to 92) the Yankees will get more marginal revenue. The tickets are more expensive, their games are watched by more people, etc.
   13. PreservedFish Posted: December 20, 2019 at 01:16 PM (#5910183)
Usually when you're talking about signing a guy like Gerrit Cole (or Harper or Machado or Betts), you're not talking about marginal wins. You're adding a foundational element that'll be there for upwards of a decade, whether you expect to win 88 games, 98 games, or 68 games. They might be more valuable for teams that don't have a built-in large loyal fanbase, the ones that have to fight for attention.
   14. SandyRiver Posted: December 20, 2019 at 03:29 PM (#5910197)
It's broken because: 1) the best players are all under reserve control and way underpaid. That's what allows the teams to play these games

What's the current thinking of value per WAR? $6 million? The league average for wins is 81; how many wins would a team get if made up entirely with replacement level players? I'd say significantly fewer than the 2019 Orioles. If the answer is, say, 30 wins, then the average team should be generating about 50 WAR. (And I know it's nowhere near that simple.) Conveniently ignoring the parenthetical comment, 50 WAR would point to the lux-tax threshold being more like $300 million than its current level.

And this Bosox fan really hopes management will be satisfied with a spending level low enough to avoid impact on the team's draft, rather than trying to lose weight by cutting off a hand or foot.
   15. Rally Posted: December 20, 2019 at 05:15 PM (#5910210)
A replacement level team would win 48 games, across MLB there are 1000 WAR each year.

That is how replacement level is set ever since Bbref, Fangraphs, and BP entered a truce a few years back. You can agree or disagree on if that accurately represents replacement level, but if you disagree then the numbers change, the 8 WAR pitcher on bbref might become a 9.5 WAR pitcher, etc.
   16. Walt Davis Posted: December 20, 2019 at 06:15 PM (#5910217)
The average $/WAR is in the range of $3-3.5 M. It's that low of course because so many WAR are had for very little among pre-arb players and probably at about that rate in the arb years. The free market rate is likely at least an average of $8 and maybe finally closer to $9 now. The price for bench-average WAR is probably at a lower rate while elite WAR goes at a higher rate.

   17. bbmck Posted: December 20, 2019 at 06:47 PM (#5910218)
Debut 1970 (reserve clause) to 2011 (most likely played 9th season) and 20+ position player WAR in 5th-9th seasons:

75 of 131 single franchise. For the other 56 players begin 5th season vs end 9th season:

ARI -1: Lose Paul Goldschmidt, Keep None, Gain None
ATL +2: Lose None, Keep Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Dale Murphy and Freddie Freeman, Gain Fred McGriff and Josh Donaldson
BAL +3: Lose Bobby Grich, Keep Brady Anderson, Brian Roberts, Cal Ripken Jr, Doug DeCinces and Eddie Murray, Gain Ken Singleton, Miguel Tejada, Rafael Palmeiro and Roberto Alomar
BOS -1: Lose Fred Lynn, Jacoby Ellsbury, Kevin Youkilis, Mo Vaughn and Nomar Garciaparra, Keep Dustin Pedroia, Jim Rice and Wade Boggs, Gain JD Martinez, Johnny Damon, Kevin Youkilis and Manny Ramirez
CHC +1: Lose None, Keep Anthony Rizzo, Ryne Sandberg and Sammy Sosa, Gain Nomar Garciaparra

CHW 0: Lose Chet Lemon, Keep Frank Thomas, Gain Albert Belle
CIN 0: Lose Mike Cameron, Keep Barry Larkin, Dave Concepcion and Joey Votto, Gain Shin-Soo Choo
CLE -6: Lose Albert Belle, Brett Butler, Buddy Bell, Julio Franco, Kenny Lofton, Manny Ramirez and Shin-Soo Choo, Keep Jim Thome, Gain Kenny Lofton
COL 0: Lose Matt Holliday, Keep Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitzki, Gain Larry Walker
DET +1: Lose Curtis Granderson and JD Martinez, Keep Alan Trammell, Kirk Gibson and Lou Whitaker, Gain Chet Lemon, Ian Kinsler and Miguel Cabrera

HOU 0: Lose None, Keep Cesar Cedeno, Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Jose Altuve and Lance Berkman, Gain None
KCR -3: Lose Carlos Beltran, Johnny Damon and Lorenzo Cain, Keep Alex Gordon, George Brett and Willie Wilson, Gain None
LAA +1: Lose Devon White, Jim Edmonds and Mickey Rivers, Keep Darin Erstad and Mike Trout, Gain: Bobby Grich, Fred Lynn, Mo Vaughn and Vladimir Guerrero
LAD +2: Lose Adrian Beltre and Mike Piazza, Keep Pedro Guerrero and Ron Cey, Gain Adrian Gonzalez, Darryl Strawberry, JD Drew and Shawn Green
MIA -2: Lose Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Cabrera, Keep None, Gain None

MIL +1: Lose None, Keep Robin Yount and Ryan Braun, Gain Lorenzo Cain
MIN -1: Lose Chuck Knoblauch, Keep Kirby Puckett and Joe Mauer, Gain None
NYM 0: Lose Darryl Strawberry and Jeff Kent, Keep David Wright, Gain Carlos Beltran and Mike Piazza
NYY +9: Lose None, Keep Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter, Don Mattingly, Robinson Cano and Willie Randolph, Gain Chuck Knoblauch, Curtis Granderson, Dave Winfield, Giancarlo Stanton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jason Giambi, Mark Teixeira, Mickey Rivers and Rickey Henderson
OAK -3: Lose Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada and Rickey Henderson, Keep Eric Chavez, Gain None

PHI -1: Lose Lenny Dykstra and Scott Rolen, Keep Bobby Abreu, Chase Utley, Garry Maddox, Jimmy Rollins and Mike Schmidt, Gain Lenny Dykstra
PIT -2: Lose Barry Bonds, Brian Giles and Jose Bautista, Keep Andrew McCutchen, Andy Van Slyke, Dave Parker and Jay Bell, Gain Brian Giles
SDP -1: Lose Adrian Gonzalez and Dave Winfield, Keep Tony Gwynn, Gain Tony Fernandez
SEA +1: Lose Alex Rodriguez, Keep Edgar Martinez, Ichiro Suzuki and Ken Griffey Jr, Gain Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron
SFG +3: Lose None, Keep Buster Posey and Matt Williams, Gain Barry Bonds, Brett Butler and Jeff Kent

STL +3: Lose JD Drew, Keep Albert Pujols, Keith Hernandez, Ozzie Smith and Ray Lankford, Gain Jim Edmonds, Matt Holliday, Paul Goldschmidt and Scott Rolen
TBR 0: Lose None, Keep Ben Zobrist and Carl Crawford, Gain None
TEX 0: Lose Ian Kinsler, Mark Teixeira and Rafael Palmeiro, Keep Ivan Rodriguez, Gain Alex Rodriguez, Buddy Bell and Julio Franco
TOR -3: Lose Fred McGriff, Jesse Barfield, Josh Donaldson, Roberto Alomar, Shawn Green and Tony Fernandez, Keep Carlos Delgado, Gain Devon White, Jesse Barfield and Jose Bautista
WSN -3: Lose Ken Singleton, Larry Walker and Vladimir Guerrero, Keep Andre Dawson, Gary Carter, Ryan Zimmerman and Tim Raines, Gain None
   18. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 20, 2019 at 08:32 PM (#5910228)
Hey the margins are tight, gotta avoid that $12 million one-time tax, it could really hurt the viability of the business:


It's not the money, it's the 10 draft spots. The single biggest thing that the Players' Association should target in the next CBA is the draft penalty. It was put in to make teams treat the tax like a hard cap, and it succeeded.
   19. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 21, 2019 at 10:53 AM (#5910276)
It's not the money, it's the 10 draft spots. The single biggest thing that the Players' Association should target in the next CBA is the draft penalty. It was put in to make teams treat the tax like a hard cap, and it succeeded.

But the Red Sox are nowhere near the draft pick threshold. There at $226.5M per Cots (incl. arb estimates) vs a $248M limit.
   20. base ball chick Posted: December 21, 2019 at 12:41 PM (#5910294)
true they are not near the draft pick threshhold

but if they manage to dump guys making more than 10 mill a year, there's a LOT more profit, you see

the draft pick stuff is yet another excuse
   21. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 21, 2019 at 01:16 PM (#5910302)
true they are not near the draft pick threshhold

but if they manage to dump guys making more than 10 mill a year, there's a LOT more profit, you see

the draft pick stuff is yet another excuse


Sure. I'm just saying it's a ll about money. Not like being pushed from #18 to #28 would matter much long run anayway, but it's not even a consideration.
   22. Lowry Seasoning Salt Posted: December 22, 2019 at 01:44 AM (#5910384)
But the Red Sox are nowhere near the draft pick threshold. There at $226.5M per Cots (incl. arb estimates) vs a $248M limit.


Assuming the Cot's numbers are accurate—has anyone ever done an end-of-year comparison check of those numbers vs. actual CBT payroll figures?—the Red Sox are quite close. Every team gets the same pension payment amount added to their CBT payroll figure, and that's $15 million or more. I have no idea why the MLBPA allowed that payment to be part of teams' CBT calculations, but looking strictly at player payroll overlooks this notable sum.
   23. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 23, 2019 at 12:34 AM (#5910529)
Blue Jays sign Hyun-Jin Ryu, 4 years/$80M.

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