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Saturday, January 29, 2022

MLB won’t require minor league players to be vaccinated against COVID-19

Major League Baseball will not require minor league players to be vaccinated against COVID-19 to play in 2022 but will mandate on-field staff working with players be “up-to-date” on vaccinations, according to a memo sent to teams Thursday morning and obtained by ESPN.

Suggestion for the new COVID thread? The Tom Gordon one has predictably turned political so we need one that is more or less pandemic-focused.

Greg Pope Posted: January 29, 2022 at 01:12 PM | 321 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: covid-19

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   1. Greg Pope Posted: January 30, 2022 at 02:05 PM (#6063052)
I thought this could be the new "regular" COVID thread. Not intended to discuss the actual minor league mandates.
   2. villageidiom Posted: January 30, 2022 at 02:07 PM (#6063053)
Link to prior thread.
   3. bob gee Posted: January 30, 2022 at 02:14 PM (#6063054)
Thank you, I use this thread for data, not trolling.
   4. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 30, 2022 at 02:22 PM (#6063058)
Some of the very worst hit countries (age adjusted, by excess deaths) are now starting to see omicron deaths too. Russia, Mexico, and Peru very notably. Peru might be the worst hit country of all (that keeps reasonably good data on all-cause deaths, at least), but unlike the other two didn't really have a delta wave. Russia was still on its way down from the delta wave and now omicron is hitting.

Shouldn't be a surprise, as we already saw something similar with South Africa. Speaking of, excess deaths (by South Africa's own data) there are now over 20% of the delta wave, so could reach 25% or more. Weekly peak topped out at just over 1/3 of the delta wave. Reported deaths are not as high, but still around 15% of delta wave, with still a few more to come. It will be harder to measure the incremental effect of omicron in the US, since our delta wave wasn't over yet in most states. Very likely to be over 100,000 though, by excess deaths, when it's finally done.
   5. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: January 30, 2022 at 05:17 PM (#6063067)
Evening ladies and gents.
   6. bob gee Posted: January 30, 2022 at 06:30 PM (#6063089)
Lower NY state active cases are plumenting, and hospitalizations are starting to come down fast as well.

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/positive-tests-over-time-region-and-county
   7. Snowboy Posted: January 30, 2022 at 11:54 PM (#6063143)
Thanks for new thread.
   8. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: January 31, 2022 at 07:12 AM (#6063154)
Russia was still on its way down from the delta wave and now omicron is hitting.


I saw a few days ago that Russia's population declined by about 1 million last year. Obviously only a fraction of that is due to Covid, but in a wider geopolitical sense, it must be a huge driver of policy.

Another ping on my Covid app, another negative test on Friday. Germany seems to be a bit behind the UK wave, but thankfully hasn't yet seen a spike in deaths, despite a vaccination rate that is only middling long Western European nations.
   9. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: January 31, 2022 at 02:34 PM (#6063208)
Update on my sister, who was sick with Covid but sent her two oldest kids to school anyway even though they had fatigue and other minor symptoms; did not bother to test them first:

After being at school for a couple days last week, the oldest kids both now have a “stomach virus”. Still not testing them for Covid, but at least they are now at home where they can’t spread this mysterious “other” virus.
   10. Lassus Posted: January 31, 2022 at 02:38 PM (#6063209)
Central NY and Mohawk Valley definitely down, but still a fucking shitshow compared to actually civilized parts of the state.

Peru looks crazy.
   11. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 31, 2022 at 03:10 PM (#6063216)
Well here's the latest bad news. The most recent studies seem to be suggesting that a mild case of omicron doesn't give you much protection, even against getting omicron again, let alone other more different and/or pathogenic variants. Twitter thread here too.

The mild omicron saving us forever may have been a tad overstated. Get vaccinated and boosted.
   12. Stop Oppressing Zonk by Investigating His Heroes Posted: February 01, 2022 at 08:30 AM (#6063315)
“Federal authorities estimate that 987,456 more people have died since early 2020 than would have otherwise been expected, based on long-term trends. People killed by coronavirus infections account for the overwhelming majority of cases. Thousands more died from derivative causes, like disruptions in their healthcare and a spike in overdoses.”

Covid-19 has left the same proportion of the population dead—about 0.3%—as did World War II, and in less time.


That's a startling and sober comparison, via the WSJ...
   13. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: February 01, 2022 at 11:37 AM (#6063336)
The mild omicron saving us forever may have been a tad overstated. Get vaccinated and boosted.


I'm hoping that the short-term reprieve of Omicron crowding out Delta doesn't cause nations to slow their booster roll-outs. The effect has been remarkable; here in Germany, the 7-day moving average of cases climbed from 25k/day to 150k/day during January, but the same measure for deaths dropped from 264 to 145 over the same period, having peaked at 400 in mid-December. Even allowing for the lag from case->hospitalisation->deaths (which appears to be compressed for Omicron), that's a pretty dramatic divergence.

Due to effects like this, Denmark has decided to drop all restrictions, despite cases continuing to be high. Denmark's had a really good vaccination response, overtaking previous leaders like the UK, and trust in the authorities remains very high despite recent restrictions over the holiday period, so this may be a good test of how a nation that's largely had 'good' outcomes in Covid terms deals with the wind-down of controls.

The UK, by contrast, has seen its 7-day average of deaths climb from around 100/day in December to 250/day or so in January, while relaxing its restrictions over the holiday period. There's some politics involved since Boris Johnson is currently trying to appease multiple factions within his party, the loudest of which has not quite gone anti-vax, but has railed against mask-wearing and self-isolation rules since the summer.

But yes. Get vaccinated and boosted.
   14. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: February 01, 2022 at 11:57 AM (#6063338)
even against getting omicron again


I'm vaxxed, and boosted, and have had omicron. And this is ******* depressing.
   15. Lassus Posted: February 01, 2022 at 12:02 PM (#6063339)
It's pretty early, I wouldn't give these studies unquestioned credence yet.
   16. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 01, 2022 at 12:38 PM (#6063345)


It's pretty early, I wouldn't give these studies unquestioned credence yet.


Right. Studies like this are interesting but the key question I always ask is whether we are actually seeing people getting reinfected after having Omicron? And it seems too early to know that.
   17. The Duke Posted: February 01, 2022 at 12:53 PM (#6063353)
Data from Israel, the land of 4 shots :

Of those currently hospitalized in serious condition, 520 are vaccinated, 117 are partially vaccinated, 427 are unvaccinated, and the status of the remainder is unknown. The majority of serious cases are being reported in people age 60 and over.
642,137 people have been vaccinated for COVID-19 four times; 4,442,029 three times; 6,093,060 twice; and 6,691,151 have received at least one vaccine.

For those that need proof that vaccinated people are spreading it around.

They also have now decided that anywhere that testing is required (airplanes for instance ) that vaccinated people need to test too - I can’t imagine why if vaccinated people don’t spread it.
   18. The Duke Posted: February 01, 2022 at 01:01 PM (#6063354)
12. You buried the lede on the real story in the WSJ article. The excess deaths are almost completely in the 65+ category. It doesn’t say this but most of the remaining excess deaths are in the 50-64 category. Statistically, it’s a non-issue for our working population and children yet all of our energy goes to badgering these groups and massively changing their behavior.

The focus should be on vigilance around older people, especially those with other issues. Yet, we debate masking 7 year olds every day and forced them into remote learning for long periods of time.

   19. JL72 Posted: February 01, 2022 at 01:14 PM (#6063357)
You are aware that people in the 50+ categories end up interacting a whole lot with folks in the under 50 crowd, right?
   20. smileyy Posted: February 01, 2022 at 01:37 PM (#6063359)
For those that need proof that vaccinated people are spreading it around.


Has this been doubted with Omicron? What has been demonstrated is that they spread it less. Vaccination is still a major part of this public health initiative.
   21. rr would lock Shaq's a$$ up Posted: February 01, 2022 at 01:46 PM (#6063363)
Has this been doubted with Omicron.


Not by anybody who is paying attention.
   22. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 01, 2022 at 02:10 PM (#6063368)

You are aware that people in the 50+ categories end up interacting a whole lot with folks in the under 50 crowd, right?

Despite everyone knowing for nearly two years that the elderly are the ones most at-risk from COVID, old people keep getting infected and dying of it. In large part because younger people are catching it and spreading it to them.
   23. Stop Oppressing Zonk by Investigating His Heroes Posted: February 01, 2022 at 02:14 PM (#6063369)
12. You buried the lede on the real story in the WSJ article.


I don't think you know what a lede is.

News of Pearl Harbor wasn't reported stating "It was mostly only men in their teens and 20s that died at Pearl Harbor... oh, by the way, there were 2400 of them".

But hey, if you're the underwriter for the value of a life, you do you. What fractional multiplier table would you recommend we apply so the raw number and proportional comparison doesn't lead?
   24. Tony S Posted: February 01, 2022 at 02:57 PM (#6063383)
Relevant.

The omicron BA.2 subvariant is inherently more contagious and better at evading vaccines than any other Covid strain, but vaccinated people don’t transmit it as easily as the unvaccinated, according to a Danish study published Sunday.
   25. Hombre Brotani Posted: February 01, 2022 at 07:44 PM (#6063419)
Data from Israel, the land of 4 shots :
RATES, post the rates of infection, post the rates of deaths. Every time I see one of these posts, it reminds me that (1) Omar Vizquel has more hits than Babe Ruth, and that (2) no one thinks Vizquel is Babe Ruth.
   26. The Duke Posted: February 01, 2022 at 11:23 PM (#6063442)
John’s Hopkins debunks lockdowns

“While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted. In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument”

So, let’s see where we are: lockdowns failure, masking children a failure, cloth masks a failure, vaccines will keep you from getting covid - failure, federal govt vaccine mandates - legal failure.

So it seems that Desantis and his band of deplorable governors got it right. Get seniors a shot, encourage others but don’t mandate them to get a shot, put in place strong controls around nursing homes (as best you can), and get on with your lives. Florida has had plenty of deaths but it’s people are free.
   27. Brian C Posted: February 02, 2022 at 12:21 AM (#6063445)
So, let’s see where we are: lockdowns failure, masking children a failure, cloth masks a failure, vaccines will keep you from getting covid - failure, federal govt vaccine mandates - legal failure.

So it seems that Desantis and his band of deplorable governors got it right. Get seniors a shot, encourage others but don’t mandate them to get a shot, put in place strong controls around nursing homes (as best you can), and get on with your lives. Florida has had plenty of deaths but it’s people are free.

I'm just wondering - do you ever say anything intelligent at all?
   28. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 02, 2022 at 01:56 AM (#6063447)
26. The Duke Posted: February 01, 2022 at 11:23 PM (#6063442)
[ Ignored Comment ]


Smartest thing he has said all year.
   29. Dog on the sidewalk has an ugly bracelet Posted: February 02, 2022 at 02:10 AM (#6063449)
So it seems that Desantis and his band of deplorable governors got it right. Get seniors a shot, encourage others but don’t mandate them to get a shot, put in place strong controls around nursing homes (as best you can), and get on with your lives. Florida has had plenty of deaths but it’s people are free.

That is not what the study said. It found significant value both in closing non-essential businesses (particularly bars and restaurants) and in having everyone wear masks. It also suggested that part of why lockdowns didn't work is because where there were lockdowns lots of people ignored them, and where there weren't lockdowns lots of people more or less locked themselves down anyway. So, they suggest government-mandated lockdowns are not very helpful, but they are not in any way saying that the better path is to throw the old folks in a cage and then go about acting like everything is normal.

Also, when you mischaracterize the effect of vaccines as you did, and then, after a bunch of people rebut your claim, you simply go and make the same inaccurate statement without acknowledging any of the responses, you look like an ass who is not to be taken seriously.
   30. Lassus Posted: February 02, 2022 at 06:40 AM (#6063456)
Florida has had plenty of deaths but it’s people are free.

Outside of what Dog said, outside of your apostrophe that should die of COVID, my parents in Florida mock your definition of freedom and the lack thereof, you whining child.
   31. bob gee Posted: February 02, 2022 at 08:01 AM (#6063459)
Please go back to the political covid discussion. Thanks.
   32. Greg Pope Posted: February 02, 2022 at 09:00 AM (#6063462)
Please go back to the political covid discussion. Thanks.

Agreed. People specifically want a politics-free COVID thread. Mentioning lockdowns and their efficiency is one thing, and is worthy of discussion here. Turning it political is not.
   33. Lassus Posted: February 02, 2022 at 09:20 AM (#6063464)
I agree. My apologies, I was at fault here for continuing.
   34. Lassus Posted: February 02, 2022 at 09:25 AM (#6063465)
Oneida County is down from it's 1/9/2022 high of 17% positive tests to an 8.3% on 1/30/22. ALTHOUGH it's been a slower fall than I'd like, going down only fractions of a percentage point per day over the last week, and actually going up from 8.2% on 1/29/22.

And that rate is not really that great, relative to a lot of the rest of the state.
   35. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2022 at 09:26 AM (#6063466)
Hanke is a Cato Institute economist, and Jonung is a Swedish economist who has pushing Sweden's response as the best in the world for a while. I have little doubt they specifically went looking for this result.

We actually know, for example, that restrictions can work extremely well if implemented relatively rigorously. We also know that "let er rip" before getting vaccines would have been an unmitigated disaster. So, any study that finds no effect is almost certainly wrong.

Anyway, they started with 10,000+ studies and only accepted a handful into their meta analysis, so it's going to be very hard for those with an axe to grind to avoid a selective sampling bias. On top of that, they seem to be defining lockdowns very narrowly, as they also found closing non-essential business (such as bars) saved over 10% of lives.
   36. bob gee Posted: February 02, 2022 at 11:12 AM (#6063474)
Downstate NY is back down for active cases to where it was the first week of December. I am expecting Hochul to extend the mask mandate (possibly until end of February; the NY court said something about NY state has to present its appeal by March). I am hopeful that if numbers drop significantly and there are no new variants, that masks might not be required in schools around April?

They have already, even in Omicron outbreak, modified the Covid notification, close contact tracing, etc.

I know, a lot of guesswork and what-ifs. But I know my area (50/50 political) has been getting Covid fatigue.

I'm not sure if it was mentioned, but Hochul wants to make alcohol-to-go from restaurants permanent.
   37. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2022 at 11:31 AM (#6063477)
I didn't realize alcohol-to-go was ever not allowed. Not sure why anyone would want to pay jacked up prices for alcohol from a restaurant at home though.

I assume you still can't drink in public?
   38. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: February 02, 2022 at 11:41 AM (#6063478)
Not to jinx it, but Chicago seems to be done with the Omicron wave. Positivity rate is back down to 4.4% after a huge spike that peaked at 20.3% on January 1. New cases, hospitalizations and deaths have also similarly fallen off since then - each new day's stats are consistently down 40+ percent from 7 days prior to that. The symmetry in how quickly it hit and has now faded is impressive.
   39. JL72 Posted: February 02, 2022 at 11:44 AM (#6063479)
I didn't realize alcohol-to-go was ever not allowed. Not sure why anyone would want to pay jacked up prices for alcohol from a restaurant at home though.


They did the same thing in Virginia (although I think it has stopped now). In the beginning, I know some people, including myself, did it as a way to support some of our local restaurants. But once they started to get on better footing, I know I quit ordering them.
   40. bob gee Posted: February 02, 2022 at 11:59 AM (#6063482)
37 - I don't think you've been allowed to drink in public, although paper bags were always a weak cover for that.

I would prefer buying a mixed cocktail from a restaurant because they'll probably do a better job at mixing it than I would, and I might only want to have that particular drink once or twice. I don't mean a G&T or something simple like that. The liquor store association has a moderately strong influence in New York state. I would completely understand if the forthcoming bill says "no bottles of wine / spirits, only true mixed drinks" and think that would be a good compromise.

I know there is one store (used to be a small restaurant pre-covid, converted to a upscale boutique food and alcohol store) that sells wine, prepared meals, and then prepared cocktails as well.
   41. Ron J Posted: February 02, 2022 at 11:59 AM (#6063483)
#27 I know at least one local restaurant uses cheap beer (specifically 6 packs of Pabst Blue Ribbon) as a loss leader on delivery orders. It's available at cost basically.

You can't order alcohol without food. And they don't discount any other alcohol.
   42. Lassus Posted: February 02, 2022 at 01:11 PM (#6063497)
Downstate NY is back down for active cases to where it was the first week of December. I am expecting Hochul to extend the mask mandate (possibly until end of February; the NY court said something about NY state has to present its appeal by March).

My google and understanding of what's going on has failed miserably. Did the NY mask mandate end yesterday? Or would it have ended if the court case wasn't going on? Or...?

Never mind, it got better.

So, Feb 10th at the moment.
   43. . Posted: February 02, 2022 at 02:08 PM (#6063506)
Outside of what Dog said, outside of your apostrophe that should die of COVID, my parents in Florida mock your definition of freedom and the lack thereof, you whining child.


Other people have a different evaluation of the relative costs and benefits of all this than you do, and you seem utterly unable to deal with that in any kind of adult sense. Honestly, it's not a pretty sight and I'd recommend stepping out of the echo chamber for awhile. All it's doing is confirming your existing prejudices, magnifying them, and stoking your rage. It's almost like the online world has become The Matrix, completely untethered from the world of tangible reality. Then when the actual world ventures in to your synthetic world, all you can do is blubber and spew at it (*) -- as you did above. Virtually everything written on the COVID boards of BTF now is an effort to protect the integrity of the premises of the synthetic world they've built. It's been that way for a very long time now.

I'm entirely serious when I write this. It's obviously not just you.

People specifically want a politics-free COVID thread.


There is no such thing and can't be.(**) Even if the "science" was perfect on this -- and it's not remotely close -- it's still only one factor to be considered. There are many others. Your tribe and Lassus's simply writes those other things away and reduces them to zero, ironically for entirely political reasons. Then you bloviate and pretend that you're just following the science and other people are mucking up your science with their politics. It's a tired act and a tired pose. It has been for a long time now.

(*) Or pretend it has some kind of hidden ax to grind and the like.

(**) What you really mean is that you want a leftist-only COVID thread.
   44. . Posted: February 02, 2022 at 02:20 PM (#6063512)
That is not what the study said. It found significant value both in closing non-essential businesses (particularly bars and restaurants) and in having everyone wear masks. It also suggested that part of why lockdowns didn't work is because where there were lockdowns lots of people ignored them,


Lockdowns and masks can never fail, they can only be failed.
   45. . Posted: February 02, 2022 at 02:30 PM (#6063517)
Thousands more died from derivative causes, like disruptions in their healthcare and a spike in overdoses.”


These deaths aren't "derivative causes" of COVID; they're direct causes of the political decisions made around COVID.(*) And the number is likely far higher than this, and will continue to grow. It will take historians to finally get a true accounting of actual COVID deaths and deaths from the political decisions made around COVID. We should be able to get fair historical rough drafts even as we go along now, but it's impossible in today's heated atmosphere.

(*) IOW, COVID didn't kill those people, people did.
   46. Lassus Posted: February 02, 2022 at 02:59 PM (#6063528)
Wow.
   47. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2022 at 03:22 PM (#6063538)
Meanwhile in the real world we are just reaching peak reported deaths this week for the omicron wave, and are likely past the peak by date of death. The downslope is likely to be not as quick as the upslope though, so we could easily see another 100,000 reported deaths before the end of the omicron wave. The CDC's median forecast is probably about that much. Some of those might be delta, or at least, would have been delta in the absence omicron, so it's not all incremental omicron deaths.

For total excess deaths in the US, we've likely been over 1 million since very late 2021. The CDC has us there the first week in January, but not all states are fully reported even for 2021. As the CDC changed their methodology, they are no longer on the higher end of estimates, so their estimate is now a decent approximate guess for the most reliable at this time. I'm thinking of doing my own estimate using a slightly more sophisticated method, but to do it properly requires good census data on a statewide basis, which still hasn't been released yet from the 2020 census.
   48. Tony S Posted: February 03, 2022 at 08:56 AM (#6063652)
Interesting research on how Covid affects smell.

Published online February 2 in the journal Cell, the new study found that infection with the pandemic virus, SARS-CoV-2, indirectly dials down the action of olfactory receptors (OR), proteins on the surfaces of nerve cells in the nose that detect the molecules associated with odors.

Led by researchers from NYU Grossman School of Medicine and Columbia University, the new study may also shed light on the effects of COVID-19 on other types of brain cells, and on other lingering neurological effects of COVID-19 like “brain fog,” headaches, and depression.



That sidebar study about cannabis and diabetes... it just applies to females. Grumble, grumble...
   49. Tony S Posted: February 04, 2022 at 08:56 AM (#6063801)
Remember, not getting vaccinated only affects you.

After every shift in his Seattle emergency department, Dr. Matt Beecroft comes away with some new story of how the omicron surge is making his patients sicker.

And not just from the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

Instead, it's the delays and disruptions in medical care — a consequence of overcrowded and short-staffed hospitals — that are leading to, at times, life-threatening complications.


There's no way to quantify how many Americans are now suffering serious, if not irreversible, harm to their health because hospitals are buckling under the weight of the omicron variant of the coronavirus. But doctors say the consequences are far-reaching, given how many procedures have been postponed.

   50. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: February 04, 2022 at 10:44 AM (#6063814)
More digging into the Johns Hopkins study data, in case anyone was at risk of believing the pre-determined conclusion it reached.
   51. bob gee Posted: February 04, 2022 at 10:54 AM (#6063815)
Thanks for that link. I found a Snopes link about this as well:

https://www.snopes.com/news/2022/02/03/johns-hopkins-study-on-lockdowns/

Key summary:
The viral “Johns Hopkins study” about lockdowns was not the work of Johns Hopkins University, it was not peer-reviewed, and it was not written by epidemiologists. A number of researchers have also taken issue with the methods used in this study.



   52. base ball chick Posted: February 04, 2022 at 12:01 PM (#6063822)
found this on covid deaths last night. what do all yall think?

i think it is interesting, but i would have liked to see the numbers of american deaths broken down into age and ethnicity

   53. Eddo Posted: February 04, 2022 at 12:18 PM (#6063825)
bbc - My assumption is it's a "small number multiplied by a very large number" thing. The omicron variant appears to be less likely to kill any individual who contracts it, but because it's much more effective at spreading, it winds up infecting enough people that more die of it than the previous waves. (I don't mean to downplay that figure at all, just trying to figure it out.)
   54. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: February 04, 2022 at 12:29 PM (#6063828)
The point the article makes about the difference between 99 percent coverage and 98 percent coverage (with vaccines) being huge, a doubling of at-risk populations, is a good one. And the knock-on impact on transmission risks, of course, goes further from there. I suspect that in under-vaccinated countries, the amount of virus transmission among a part of the population that aren't particularly at-risk but aren't well-vaccinated is increasing the risk in the elderly by multiplying their opportunities to get infected.

On learning lessons, the Guardian put up this article on scientists highlighting things they were 'wrong' about during the course of the pandemic.

I'll add one of my own - I was incentivised not to believe that border closures were worthwhile in the early stages of Covid circulation. As the virus became widespread, that was probably the case, but actually a few weeks of enhanced border controls in some areas could well have bought important time to design and apply internal measures, learn from the (heart-breaking) conditions in places like Italy, and get people taking it seriously. Without availability of testing, a lot of people would have had a hard time travelling at all, but that time might have been worth buying.
   55. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 04, 2022 at 12:57 PM (#6063833)
A lot of interesting things in that Intelligencer article, but one major point of caution is that a lot of the data, especially across countries and across time periods, is not apples-to-apples. For example, it's very hard to make meaningful comparisons of cross-jurisdiction CFR trends over time without correcting for a host of different things.
   56. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 04, 2022 at 04:15 PM (#6063870)
This is not the first time that Johns Hopkins allowed their brand to be used on a questionable “study.” I can’t find the thread where we discussed it, but there was an administrator/lecturer in their statistics department who put some really bad slides online, completely misinterpreting the data, and it was reported as “Johns Hopkins says….” by many.
   57. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 04, 2022 at 08:00 PM (#6063892)
Latest bit of concern is the omicron B.A.2 subvariant, which has taken over Denmark and is taking over Gauteng. Gauteng's wave was basically over, but cases have been increasing again for the past 10 days as B.A.2 has become dominant. New hopsitalizations have stopped going down and potentially will even increase again.

I don't think anyone is expecting another wave as bad as omicron right away, but if B.A.2 comes sweeping in we could have an extended omicron wave.

In better news, reported deaths in the US may have peaked in the last couple days, at around 2500 per day, which in my opinion is about the best we could have hoped for considering our poor vax coverage. We should know by the middle of next week.
   58. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 04, 2022 at 09:26 PM (#6063898)
Reported deaths in FL increased by 11% this week, to 1,324. But an 11% increase in deaths (after 97% the prior week) hopefully means that we are near the peak there. That’s only about half of the Delta peak. Maybe there will be a big jump again next week but given we are already 3 weeks past the Omicron peak there, I’m cautiously hopeful that it won’t get much worse.
   59. bob gee Posted: February 07, 2022 at 12:09 PM (#6064086)
New Jersey is supposed to announce today that the mask mandate for schools will end in March 7, Delaware is end of March with indoor mask mandate ending Feb 11.

I wonder how much NYC will impact when New York will make similar announcements. It's one thing to have no mask mandate in the Northen County, it's another on packed NYC subway lines.

Downstate (not including NYC) has the lowest number of active cases since early November, and hospitalizations are crashing.
   60. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: February 07, 2022 at 01:09 PM (#6064093)
i haven't been in this thread for a while, but as someone who has been tracking the ebb and flow in covid cases since this started, i want to point out that the last 6-ish weeks are not at all like the previous waves.

previously waves (in the US, at least, but i think this holds for most other places, as well) had a steep increase in cases, followed by a relatively slow decline in cases. what we would see is a spike, followed by a long-ish tail end of cases trickling in. MAR/APR 2020, then october/november/december 2020/2021, and then again around august.

but this most recent wave is just a huge spike followed by a tail end that is just as sharp of a drop. we went from a 150K cases to a peak of 800+K cases per day in 25 days. now, 20 days after that spike, we're back under 250K cases per day, with no indication that the decline in case rate is going stop.
   61. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 07, 2022 at 01:33 PM (#6064100)

I've been hesitant to say this up until now, but it really looks like we've hit/passed the peak in reported deaths from the Omicron wave. 2,600 deaths per day is definitely bad, but it's a lot better than the worst-case scenarios that I could have envisioned, given the number of cases. Hopefully the steep drop in cases recently


I wonder how much NYC will impact when New York will make similar announcements. It's one thing to have no mask mandate in the Northen County, it's another on packed NYC subway lines.


They never did away with the mask mandate on NYC public transportation even during the case lows of last summer/fall. Most people comply even though the enforcement of those who don't is not very strict/consistent. I don't see any reason to rush to change it, but I imagine other spaces will begin to relax things in March or April if cases continue to drop as they have been.
   62. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 07, 2022 at 02:26 PM (#6064112)
But this most recent wave is just a huge spike followed by a tail end that is just as sharp of a drop. we went from a 150K cases to a peak of 800+K cases per day in 25 days. now, 20 days after that spike, we're back under 250K cases per day, with no indication that the decline in case rate is going stop.
Drop in hospitalizations and deaths is unlikely to be as fast. That's what happened in South Africa and the UK. The main reason seems to be that this wave is quickly ripping through the less vulnerable population first, with a longer tail as it works its way through the vulnerable population.

For example, it took 10 days for cases to be halved in the UK (Jan 1 - Jan 11), but new admissions have only gone down 30% in 4 weeks (Jan 1 - Jan 29). Deaths peaked Jan 16 and went down 15-20% in 2 weeks.

South Africa is similar. Hospital admissions took over a month to drop by 50%. Deaths took almost as long. It's quicker if you look at single areas rather than whole countries, but cases are also quicker.
   63. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 07, 2022 at 02:58 PM (#6064119)
There's a similar dynamic going on in the US, but maybe not to the same extent. 7-day avg. cases and new hospital admissions peaked around Jan. 15. Since that peak, new cases are down 63% but new hospitalizations are only down 39% (although the CDC cautions that the last 7 days of hospitalization admissions may not be complete, so that may be an overstating the decline).
   64. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: February 07, 2022 at 05:08 PM (#6064151)
They never did away with the mask mandate on NYC public transportation


Having ridden NYC subways, it occurs to me that maybe masks are a good idea even when there isn't a deadly pandemic around.

This is not the first time that Johns Hopkins allowed their brand to be used on a questionable “study.”


And as a Hopkins alum, I feel like I should stick up for my school. If you're at a university, you're going to say that you are so-and-so at such-and-such school. That's not the same thing as the university itself getting behind what you've said, but if it's true that you're on the faculty there, there's nothing wrong with noting that. (Journal articles will pretty much always note where the author is employed, for example.) I suspect what's going on is that media folks are misconstruing what "Dr. So-and-so, Such-and-such University" means. It just means that they work there, and they don't need any university approval to say that.
   65. SoSH U at work Posted: February 07, 2022 at 06:13 PM (#6064157)
And as a Hopkins alum, I feel like I should stick up for my school. If you're at a university, you're going to say that you are so-and-so at such-and-such school. That's not the same thing as the university itself getting behind what you've said, but if it's true that you're on the faculty there, there's nothing wrong with noting that. (Journal articles will pretty much always note where the author is employed, for example.) I suspect what's going on is that media folks are misconstruing what "Dr. So-and-so, Such-and-such University" means. It just means that they work there, and they don't need any university approval to say that.


And as the father of a Hopkins alum, I'll add that the author in question came out a few days ago criticizing the school for downplaying his study.
   66. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 07, 2022 at 09:52 PM (#6064181)
<a >The paper</a> has a big JHU logo and “The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise” printed on the cover. One of the authors is the founder and co-director of that institute. This isn’t just some random crank prof spouting off on Twitter.

JHU has generally done great work throughout the pandemic, so I’m not trying to throw the baby out with the bathwater here. And I know that the occasional bad study is sometimes the price of academic freedom. But that doesn’t change any of what I wrote above, and I wish there was a way for universities to better control this type of misinformation in the middle of a pandemic, or to repudiate it more forcefully when it comes out and when the media misinterpret it.
   67. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 07, 2022 at 10:56 PM (#6064182)
   68. The Duke Posted: February 09, 2022 at 09:23 AM (#6064397)
As could easily be seen a month ago, the covid flu season is disappearing again for now. Even the Dems are abandoning child mask mandates en masse realizing the science was bad and the politics worse. The hysteria about “breaking” hospitals is over. Tummy tucks can now be done without waiting. Scandinavia has lifted almost all of its restrictions on covid. Rest of Europe to follow shortly.

Perhaps the blue states can get their freedom back and join the red states in living normally. A few diehards in Virginia are suggesting unmasked children/parents be arrested for trespassing in the schools. So there’s still a few Japanese up there in the caves fighting the last war but it’s almost over.

Looks like everyone will need to pivot back to ensuring men can compete against women in women’s sports. At the very least it might help get a medal or two in the Olympics going forward.

   69. greenback needs a ride, not ammo Posted: February 09, 2022 at 09:30 AM (#6064399)
It's weird to me that the right has latched onto masks and vaccines for their various anti-science takes while the Scientific Community's untoward response (both now and in the spring of 2020) to the lab leak hypothesis is still sitting out there, waiting to be bashed like a piñata.
   70. DCA Posted: February 09, 2022 at 09:49 AM (#6064402)
And the relaxing of NPIs in response to a decline in cases being presented as evidence of something other than normal public health policy.

Per the NYT, Virginia has the highest COVID death rate of any state (annual rate of 0.6% of the population over the last week) so at least Duke's diehards are picking the right battlefield.
   71. JJ1986 Posted: February 09, 2022 at 09:57 AM (#6064404)
Perhaps the blue states can get their freedom back and join the red states in living normally.
You seem to have no interest in arguing in good faith.
   72. Lassus Posted: February 09, 2022 at 10:08 AM (#6064408)
EDITED. I should know better.

ONEIDA COUNTY! (positivity rate)

1/20 - 12.5%
1/21 - 11.1%
1/22 - 11.3%
1/23 - 11%
1/24 - 10.7%
1/25 - 9.7&
1/26 - 9.5%
1/27 - 9.1%
1/28 - 8.6%
1/29 - 8.2%
1/30 - 8.3%
1/31 - 7.9%
2/1 - 7.5%
2/2 - 7.2%
2/3 - 6.7%
2/4 - 6.8%
2/5 - 6.4%
2/6 - 5.8%
2/7 - 6.2%

That last bit of a rise is annoying, and hopefully will not continue as a reaction to everything going down.

   73. greenback needs a ride, not ammo Posted: February 09, 2022 at 10:16 AM (#6064409)
It wouldn't shock me if certain individuals actually are liberals in God's book, but other personality characteristics, developed while residing under a bridge, matter more in their posts.
   74. Lassus Posted: February 09, 2022 at 10:33 AM (#6064412)
To clarify, if anyone cares, I sarcasm snarked about liberals in #72, then thought better of it. Not to pull the rug out from under greenback -
   75. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: February 09, 2022 at 11:02 AM (#6064416)
The hysteria about “breaking” hospitals is over.

Ironically, my sister in law’s friend’s 55 year old husband died last weekend from a heart attack. He had started having chest pains, went to the hospital and was told there was no room, to go home and monitor. 2 hours later, gone.

But at least there’s no hysteria. At this point we are calmly accepting all the extra dying.
   76. Greg Pope Posted: February 09, 2022 at 12:24 PM (#6064426)
Again, when Duke or SBB injects politics in, we don't have to respond. They can just be ignored.

Talking about mandates winding down is fine, including the effects. But post 68 is dripping with politics.
   77. SoSH U at work Posted: February 09, 2022 at 12:28 PM (#6064428)
But post 68 is dripping with politics.


Hey, that's not fair. It's also dripping with idiocy.
   78. John Northey Posted: February 09, 2022 at 12:50 PM (#6064437)
I do find it amazing how some still see it as 'just the flu' or 'lets all get infected to end it'. Both moronic statements if one looks up any information.
Deaths per million by nation is at Statica.
The USA past 7 days : 42.48 dead per million people.
Canada (far stronger restrictions but now being weakened thanks to a war effort from the pro-COVID crowd funded by US Republicans) - 20.27 or less than half of the US rate despite being a colder weather nation thus, in theory, more at risk.

Please Republicans - keep funding just your own pro-COVID forces, stop sending cash up here.
   79. bob gee Posted: February 09, 2022 at 01:00 PM (#6064442)
Sleepy, sorry to hear that. I can't imagine living through that for someone who could have been saved. I'm hopeful that the crashing down of active cases in the Northeast also happens in the rest of the country.

Good thing I have people blocked!

   80. smileyy Posted: February 09, 2022 at 02:00 PM (#6064466)
Good thing I have people blocked!


If only my *%($ing phone would stay logged in so I don't have to see the during the day.
   81. JL72 Posted: February 09, 2022 at 04:19 PM (#6064513)
Sleepy - also sorry to hear your story. My niece (a middle schooler who lives in Illinois) has had to delay sinus surgery about 5-6 weeks due to Covid overcrowding. Fortunately, her issue is not life threatening, but she is in constant pain. Lucky for her, that gets fixed this Friday.
   82. Tony S Posted: February 10, 2022 at 10:06 AM (#6064593)


Sleepy -- sorry to hear your about your friend. We don't live in a just world, unfortunately.

If you take Covid seriously and would like to take a trip or something, this is probably your best window. Cases are dropping sharply, we've decided as a society to take our foot off the brake, and the next variant hasn't taken hold yet.

If we can get to the point where the *only* ones who get infected, get sick, and die are the unvaccinated, I can easily live with that, as long as there's a triage protocol in place that prioritizes non-Covid patients in case hospitals get overwhelmed again.
   83. Lassus Posted: February 10, 2022 at 12:52 PM (#6064645)
   84. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: February 10, 2022 at 01:39 PM (#6064692)
Thanks guys. I should clarify that this was not someone close to me, but it was someone my wife knew well.

I read duke’s awful screed just a few minutes after my wife told me the story and it pissed me off.

Anyway, I know he tested negative for Covid at the ER, but I do t know if he had previously had the disease. There was an interesting related article at Fox News today about the link between recovery from Covid and heart disease- seems Covid will be the gift that keeps on giving (I’m pretty sure we’ve talked about this a lot already, but good to see Fox News report it):

Eric Topol, a cardiologist at Scripps Research, told the magazine that he was surprised by the findings and called the ailments "serious disorders."

"If anybody ever thought that COVID was like the flu this should be one of the most powerful data sets to point out it’s not," he said, referring to the study that ran in Nature Medicine earlier this week.

Reuters reported that the study found that those who recovered from the virus had about a 63% higher risk of having a heart attack and a 52% greater risk of stroke one year later. The news outlet also said those who recovered had a 72% higher risk of heart failure. The elevated risks seemed to impact everyone, regardless of sex, age or whether there were pre-existing conditions, the report said. The magazine pointed out that even those who were not hospitalized also had greater risk of cardiovascular disease.


   85. Miserable, Non-Binary Candy is all we deserve CoB Posted: February 10, 2022 at 01:50 PM (#6064704)
It's also dripping with idiocy.


Also full of rank stupidity and staggering and determined ignorance!
   86. base ball chick Posted: February 10, 2022 at 02:54 PM (#6064754)
The Duke Posted: February 09, 2022 at 09:23 AM (#6064397)

Perhaps the blue states can get their freedom back and join the red states in living normally


- what the serious he!! is "normal"? pretending the virus doesn't exist? pretending it doesn't kill people/cause disability with long covid? ignoring/not caring about all the sick/dying? enjoying passing on your virus so you can injure/kill other people without penalty on this earth?

i guess this is the "christian" way


Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: February 09, 2022 at 11:02 AM (#6064416)

The hysteria about “breaking” hospitals is over.

Ironically, my sister in law’s friend’s 55 year old husband died last weekend from a heart attack. He had started having chest pains, went to the hospital and was told there was no room, to go home and monitor. 2 hours later, gone.

But at least there’s no hysteria. At this point we are calmly accepting all the extra dying.


- you mean dying because of treatment refusal due to there being no way to take care of the dying due to unvaccinated covid people taking up all the space.
- also not being called a covid death although this poor man's death was a direct consequence of covid even if it wasn't found in his body at the minute he died. so sorry for his wife having to watch him die when if not for all those unvaccinated #&*!&%&!S he could have been saved

anyone here remember that story about a bunch of rich people who run away to some castle to party to frget about the plague but it follows them there and kills them anyhow? this is normal just like pretending covid does not exist except for the non-White and those worthless Old People


Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: February 10, 2022 at 01:39 PM (#6064692)


Anyway, I know he tested negative for Covid at the ER, but I do t know if he had previously had the disease. There was an interesting related article at Fox News today about the link between recovery from Covid and heart disease- seems Covid will be the gift that keeps on giving (I’m pretty sure we’ve talked about this a lot already, but good to see Fox News report it):

Eric Topol, a cardiologist at Scripps Research, told the magazine that he was surprised by the findings and called the ailments "serious disorders."

"If anybody ever thought that COVID was like the flu this should be one of the most powerful data sets to point out it’s not," he said, referring to the study that ran in Nature Medicine earlier this week.

Reuters reported that the study found that those who recovered from the virus had about a 63% higher risk of having a heart attack and a 52% greater risk of stroke one year later. The news outlet also said those who recovered had a 72% higher risk of heart failure. The elevated risks seemed to impact everyone, regardless of sex, age or whether there were pre-existing conditions, the report said. The magazine pointed out that even those who were not hospitalized also had greater risk of cardiovascular disease.


- the virus attacks the blood vessels so this is not no surprise. (only surprise is that fox news said this right out)

i mean, you see this all the time with influenza patients so no big deal, it's all "normal".

   87. Hombre Brotani Posted: February 10, 2022 at 03:02 PM (#6064763)
The USA past 7 days : 42.48 dead per million people.
Canada (far stronger restrictions but now being weakened thanks to a war effort from the pro-COVID crowd funded by US Republicans) - 20.27 or less than half of the US rate despite being a colder weather nation thus, in theory, more at risk.
People need to stop quoting death rates at right-wing anti-mandate people. They don't care how many people die. Stop making the argument.

There was an interesting related article at Fox News today about the link between recovery from Covid and heart disease- seems Covid will be the gift that keeps on giving
The comments section is spectacular.
   88. greenback needs a ride, not ammo Posted: February 10, 2022 at 04:17 PM (#6064799)
I hadn't seen this story at Bloomberg before today. The CEO of a local life insurance company had numerous observations that are well understood here (lots of deaths among the unvaccinated, increase in excess death, effects of long COVID, etc.), but this is kinda new to me:

Davison of OneAmerica definitely believes that the unvaccinated drove most of last year’s awful surge in working-age mortality, and is acting on that belief. “Most of us in the industry are starting to target and to add premium loads onto employers that are based in counties that have low vaccination rates,” he said. “That's just typically what we would do for underwriting when you have a risk factor like that.”

This is life insurance, not health insurance. And to reiterate, OneAmerica here is the insurance company, not the news network for those who think Fox is too RINO. The insurance company and news company are completely unrelated AFAIK.
   89. base ball chick Posted: February 10, 2022 at 04:54 PM (#6064814)
Hombre Brotani Posted: February 10, 2022 at 03:02 PM (#6064763)

People need to stop quoting death rates at right-wing anti-mandate people. They don't care how many people die.


- they only care about White "christians" and not Those Icky Coloreds or Those Icky Asians or Those Icky not cis/straights or Those Icky Not "christians". they'll start caring when/if this virus mutates to something that kills more of the young Whites


greenback used to say live and let live Posted: February 10, 2022 at 04:17 PM (#6064799)

Davison of OneAmerica definitely believes that the unvaccinated drove most of last year’s awful surge in working-age mortality, and is acting on that belief. “Most of us in the industry are starting to target and to add premium loads onto employers that are based in counties that have low vaccination rates,” he said. “That's just typically what we would do for underwriting when you have a risk factor like that.”


- wonder how many of them actually HAVE life ins. youd be surprised how many people With KIDZ don't. even rich people who spend everything they earn

i'll be happier when that is health ins too. then watch the rightys suddenly LIKEY obamacare. and i'll be happiest when unvaxed people with covid are last in line for treatment at ERs and hospitals. and yes i DO know ima have trouble defending that on Judgement Day
   90. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: February 10, 2022 at 04:59 PM (#6064817)
- they only care about White "christians"

Not even then. Seems like most of the many many good-hearted loving aggressively-anti-vaxx Christian people have had their GoFundMe's for COVID funeral expenses go unfunded.
   91. base ball chick Posted: February 10, 2022 at 05:13 PM (#6064823)
on a scale of 0 to a negative hunnert zillion you can guess where my sympathy level at
   92. pikepredator Posted: February 10, 2022 at 05:20 PM (#6064825)
The comments section is spectacular.


That's one word for it. "All this research is wrong, I know it's actually the vaccine that is causing all these heart problems!"

The cognitive dissonance is strong.

There will be enlightening (and saddening) long-term studies on this public health "experiment". It's fascinating that both sides perceive the other side to be the unknowing lab rat. "What a fool, taking that hastily produced vaccine based on decades of research. I'll be much safer taking my chances with this completely unresearched virus of unknown origin!!"
   93. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: February 10, 2022 at 05:28 PM (#6064827)
If health insurance rates go up, the right will blame Obamacare, not their own actions.

   94. base ball chick Posted: February 10, 2022 at 05:34 PM (#6064829)
yeh

everything is That Icky N-word's fault unless it is That Evulllll Hillary
   95. Lassus Posted: February 10, 2022 at 06:32 PM (#6064843)
That's one word for it. "All this research is wrong, I know it's actually the vaccine that is causing all these heart problems!"

Was the username C. Tarlson?
   96. Srul Itza Posted: February 10, 2022 at 07:39 PM (#6064850)
anyone here remember that story about a bunch of rich people who run away to some castle to party to frget about the plague but it follows them there and kills them anyhow?


The Masque of the Red Death


Edgar Allen Poe
   97. Tony S Posted: February 11, 2022 at 09:01 AM (#6064865)

I asked my primary-care doctor yesterday about a fourth shot. She said it wouldn't hurt, but she didn't think it was necessary, citing diminishing returns, and advised me to wait for now. She did say if there are variant-specific modifications to the vaccine then it would probably be worth it then.

The staff there was telling me that the office was seriously stressed two/three weeks ago, but things are closer to normal today. They did mention that the county hospital, while no longer overwhelmed, is still pretty strained. Hopefully that will improve over the next week or so.

The sharp post-Omicron case declines seem to have leveled off in Maryland. Figures for the last five days are 1124, 772, 738, 751, and 1100. We had 46 new cases in Frederick Co. yesterday, which was a typical new-case number during the Delta wave last year. It's a sobering reminder that this pandemic isn't over no matter how hard we close our eyes and pretend it is.



   98. Tony S Posted: February 11, 2022 at 09:15 AM (#6064868)
An unsettling study linking heart disease and Covid.

Even a mild case of COVID-19 can increase a person’s risk of cardiovascular problems for at least a year after diagnosis, a new study1 shows. Researchers found that rates of many conditions, such as heart failure and stroke, were substantially higher in people who had recovered from COVID-19 than in similar people who hadn’t had the disease.

What’s more, the risk was elevated even for those who were under 65 years of age and lacked risk factors, such as obesity or diabetes.


The "Covid can't hurt me because I'm young and healthy" crowd might want to take note, but they won't.
   99. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 11, 2022 at 09:29 AM (#6064871)

The one good thing that I'm noticing is that in New York and New Jersey, which were hit earliest by the Omicron wave, the reported deaths now appear to be declining more quickly than they did after last winter's wave. Hopefully other states follow suit in a week or two and we don't have as long a tail of deaths being reported from Omicron.
   100. JL72 Posted: February 11, 2022 at 09:38 AM (#6064874)
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