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Wednesday, May 16, 2007

MLB.com: Mayo - Top 10 First-Year Player Draft projection

10. San Francisco Giants: Andrew Brackman, RHP, North Carolina State
The big guy finally finds a home. The Giants do have three first-round picks, so it will be very intersting to see how they go about picking and signing those selections. They generally scout players based on their abilities only and don’t shy away from signability concerns. Brackman came into the season as one of the top couple of arms in the draft and the raw stuff has been there. But the performance has not. Some think that perhaps he’s experiencing a dead-arm period based on the fact that the former two-sport star has never thrown this many innings in a season. How he recovers and bounces back from that could determine his ultimate draft position, but he’s definitely in the Giants’ conversation.

June 7 is rapidly approaching…

NTNgod Posted: May 16, 2007 at 09:40 PM | 30 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: minor leagues, prospect reports

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Rancischley Leweschquens (Tim Wallach was my Hero) Posted: May 16, 2007 at 09:52 PM (#2366000)
"6. Washington Nationals: Phillippe Aumont, Ecole Du Versant Gatineau, Quebec"

That couldn't be more ironic...
   2. WillYoung Posted: May 16, 2007 at 09:54 PM (#2366001)
This is as good a place as any to ask... does anybody have any guesses about where Eammon Portice (RHP from High Point) and Mike Rizzotti (1B from Manhattan) will be picked? I would think rounds 10 to 15ish for both, but I'm sure some of you guys know more about the amateur draft.
   3. Shibal Posted: May 16, 2007 at 10:29 PM (#2366016)
Weiters is out of the top 10? Last I looked, Keith Law had him as the best player in the draft. I was expecting a lot more from him this year....maybe the pitching part is affecting his hitting. I'd like the Royals to go after Vitters; you can never have too many elite bats on your team. I also think whoever takes Brackman of NC State is going to be regretting it after a few years.
   4. Tracy Ringolsby Posted: May 16, 2007 at 10:37 PM (#2366022)
Excuse me, the Giants ``generally scout players based on their abilities only and don’t shy away from signability concerns.'' Has this guy checked out the draft in the top 10 years. The Giants are so opposed to paying slot money, even, that they have been known, just like Oakland, to sign a free agent for compensation and put the money that would have been spent on a first round draft choice into the big-league payroll.
   5. Honkie Kong Posted: May 16, 2007 at 10:42 PM (#2366028)
Wieters not going in the first round would be a huge shock to me! Even a down year by his standards has been pretty darn good. He should be a perfect fit for Tampa. People have been making noises about the mileage on Price's arm ( similar to the Lincecum grumblings last year ).
Any draftniks want to chime in?

Edit 1 : now that i see #3. He has not been closing much this year, as he has struggled pitching. Danny Payne has been helping out.
   6. Honkie Kong Posted: May 16, 2007 at 10:45 PM (#2366031)
You can't just leave it at that, Shibal. You gotta explain why.

watched Brackman pitch against Tech last month. he was fast, but not that impressive. The knock against him has been his inability to produce good results. He is a tall power pitcher and all projectability ( converted basketball player ). He hasn't been pitching for that long, but still, you have to produce good results at some point with that stuff
   7. Francoeur Sans Gages (AlouGoodbye) Posted: May 16, 2007 at 10:51 PM (#2366036)
Excuse me, the Giants ``generally scout players based on their abilities only and don’t shy away from signability concerns.'' Has this guy checked out the draft in the top 10 years. The Giants are so opposed to paying slot money, even, that they have been known, just like Oakland, to sign a free agent for compensation and put the money that would have been spent on a first round draft choice into the big-league payroll.
The Giants have sometimes done that (e.g. Michael Tucker) but when they have used their draft picks they have not cheaped out - Lincecum, Cain, etc. And last year they even signed Angel Villalona out of the Dominican for a big signing fee.
   8. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: May 16, 2007 at 10:53 PM (#2366037)
The Pirates can't take another college pitcher can they? Is Matt Millen running the Pirates too and he likes college pitchers instead of college wide receivers?
   9. birdlives is one crazy ninja Posted: May 17, 2007 at 04:39 AM (#2366380)
I've seen David Price pitch three times this year. He was solid but nothing special for my first two trips. On my third trip, he carried a perfect game into the 7th inning. I showed up during this inning and my friend immediately mentioned that Price was pitching the type of game that you're not allowed to say and that I better not jinx it. Of course, the very next batter lined a single and my friend blamed me.
   10. CraigK Posted: May 17, 2007 at 05:02 AM (#2366405)
The Pirates can't take another college pitcher can they? Is Matt Millen running the Pirates too and he likes college pitchers instead of college wide receivers?

I'm trying to make a smartass Jeff Samardjiza joke, but I got nothin'.
   11. Xander Posted: May 17, 2007 at 05:45 AM (#2366411)
Weiters is out of the top 10? Last I looked, Keith Law had him as the best player in the draft.
Law also said Jarrod Parker is challenging Porcello for the best prep pitcher in the country. Earlier this season in a chat on Espn.com Law also said he'd take Brackman over Price. Both these ideas have no basis in reality. Disregard what Keith Law said.
I also think whoever takes Brackman of NC State is going to be regretting it after a few years.
And you'd be wrong. The team that is certifiably insane enough to disregard all the tell-tales signs of the bust that Brackman will be will deserve what's coming to them. I wouldn't take him before the 2nd round...on talent alone.
   12. MM1f Posted: May 17, 2007 at 07:01 AM (#2366423)
Judging by things said in Mayos comments on each mock pick I think hes projecting Wieters, a Boras client, to fall based on signability just like Andrew Miller and the still unsigned Max Scherzer (who also had injury questions) did last year and like Luke Hochevar did in getting down to the Dodgers in the supplemental round in 05.

Stephen Drew, '04, is the last consensus top 5 position player to fall.

."Law also said Jarrod Parker is challenging Porcello for the best prep pitcher in the country. Earlier this season in a chat on Espn.com Law also said he'd take Brackman over Price. Both these ideas have no basis in reality. Disregard what Keith Law said."

Ok, I'm not going to wade into the BrackAttack one with you, I'd probably take Price too but, like Bard last year, Brackman is clearly better than a 2nd rounder. But there is a fine case to be made that hes overrated, one that I'm not on board with but ok...

But what is absurd is you being so damn sure than Porcello is better than Parker. I know youve got your absurd Jersey loyalism but have you seen either of these guys pitch? Parker is the hardest thrower in his class and one scout said Porcello's edge mostly just his 3-4 inches in height.
Its one thing to read reports and get a favorite but to be such a blowhard about it, and act like its absurd to disagree, when I'm 90% sure you know less about it than Law (or BA, or PG, or whoever) is a joke

Do you have anything that can back up your claim that thinking of Parker is on par with or head of Porcello is baseless?
   13. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 17, 2007 at 10:35 AM (#2366444)
Moskos to the Pirates? ####.

Not that I can fault Mayo for assuming that we'd take the lowest-impact lefty arm on the board. I mean, I'm sure he'll have a nice career and all, but the absolute LAST thing this org needs is a polished college reliever.
   14. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 17, 2007 at 10:45 AM (#2366445)
I mean, if they want a bat, but don't want to pay for Wieters, they should just go with Heyward.
   15. Honkie Kong Posted: May 17, 2007 at 12:39 PM (#2366467)
I was hoping Heyward fall to the Braves at #14
   16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 17, 2007 at 12:48 PM (#2366470)
I don't know why people aren't rating Heyward more highly. There don't seem to be any holes in his profile.
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: May 17, 2007 at 01:01 PM (#2366476)
What is this, the 380th time you've called out Law for Brackman over Price? Seems a bit early to crow that loudly when Keith hasn't been wrong because of their MLB careers but because of other people's prospect rankings.
   18. Honkie Kong Posted: May 17, 2007 at 01:08 PM (#2366478)
There don't seem to be any holes in his profile.

big time lack of speed from an 18 yr old
   19. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 17, 2007 at 01:36 PM (#2366494)
"big time lack of speed from an 18 yr old"

Average speed, sure, but when you're talking about a guy who's 6-4, isn't that kind of a given? And it's not like Moustakas or Dominguez are burners, either...

The more I read about him, the less I think he's going to be around for Atlanta that late. Allan Simpson posted a mock draft here, and he's got the Nats (#6), Rockies (#8), Mariners (#11), and Marlins (#12) all being interested in him on some level or other.
   20. Xander Posted: May 17, 2007 at 02:54 PM (#2366548)
Do you have anything that can back up your claim that thinking of Parker is on par with or head of Porcello is baseless?
I have seen Porcello pitch, and from what I've seen of Parker on film, he doesn't come close to matching up. Porcello has polish AND projection on his side. Like you said, Parker is a hard thrower. Read other draft reports and see how close Parker comes to Porcello in those as well. Or you don't have to believe me and we can just wait this one out and let time prove me right.

And Andrew Brackman is brutal.
   21. Xander Posted: May 17, 2007 at 02:55 PM (#2366549)
And lets not forget that Porcello was given the highest draft grade by the bureau for a prep pitcher since Josh Beckett. This isn't some random high school arm I'm high on.
   22. Mike Emeigh Posted: May 17, 2007 at 03:19 PM (#2366554)
Neither the Pirates nor the Orioles have any business drafting a college pitcher, given the state of their farm systems and what's going on at the major league level. Both those clubs should be looking at guys like Moustakas, Heyward, and Dominguez instead of Moskos, Detweiler, and Brackman.

-- MWE
   23. Guapo Posted: May 17, 2007 at 03:22 PM (#2366557)
If the Nationals draft a French Canadian high school pitcher, I may not renew my season tickets.
   24. Rally Posted: May 17, 2007 at 03:27 PM (#2366561)
And lets not forget that Porcello was given the highest draft grade by the bureau for a prep pitcher since Josh Beckett. This isn't some random high school arm I'm high on.

I've heard that before. That's how Jeff Allison was described.

I don't have an opinion on Parker v Porcello, but lets recognize how much this is an inexact science. We're probably in the neighborhood of one being a 35% chance of being a regular rotation starter and the other 33%.
   25. Xander Posted: May 17, 2007 at 03:38 PM (#2366577)

I've heard that before. That's how Jeff Allison was described.
But shouldn't we then get into specifics of these two cases? Prior to the draft, Allison was known as a head case by many from Mass. area. Even in his BA write-up, they said:
Scouts say he's cocky, to a point of being uncoachable at times.


Porcello is pretty much the opposite. He's got a GPA near 4, he's polite and well-mannered off the field, and he's extremely coachable according to numerous connections I have with SHP.

Obviously if your point is prep pitchers are unpredictable, there is truth to that. But the downfall which Allison met was not something that no one saw coming. He had a rep before he was even drafted.
   26. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 17, 2007 at 03:53 PM (#2366589)
I am intrigued by Porcello. I will endorse him for Royals #2 overall pick.
   27. Mike Emeigh Posted: May 17, 2007 at 04:05 PM (#2366596)
I still think the Royals should take Vitters instead of Porcello, mostly because he's the best player likely to be available to them. I can understand why they don't, given that he's a 3B and KC already has Gordon, but that shouldn't stop anyone.

I would love to see Vitters drop to #4, but that ain't happening.

-- MWE
   28. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 17, 2007 at 04:13 PM (#2366599)
"He's got a GPA near 4, he's polite and well-mannered off the field, and he's extremely coachable according to numerous connections I have with SHP."

Turn that around, and he sounds like a doormat. Doesn't throw his weight around, doesn't have enough self confidence to trust his own stuff, right? You want a little strut in a SP; they have to think they're Mick Jagger out there on the mound.

Not dissing Porcello, just making a point about how you can make ANYTHING sound like a negative when you get into personality/makeup stuff. It's even worse for us than the scouts, because at least they've met the kid themselves. We're just listening to third-hand accounts.

"I would love to see Vitters drop to #4, but that ain't happening."

Yeah, seems like it. Everything I've read has the Cubs absolutely committed to him at #3, assuming he gets that far.
   29. obsessivegiantscompulsive Posted: May 20, 2007 at 07:37 AM (#2371118)
Excuse me, the Giants ``generally scout players based on their abilities only and don’t shy away from signability concerns.'' Has this guy checked out the draft in the top 10 years. The Giants are so opposed to paying slot money, even, that they have been known, just like Oakland, to sign a free agent for compensation and put the money that would have been spent on a first round draft choice into the big-league payroll.


I guess no Giants fans are around. The Giants last year stated that cost was not a concern with their #10, that they would pick the best talent available, regardless of signability concerns. Since they got the #10 again plus, as noted, signed Villalona to a $2.1M signing bonus (16 year old prospect), I would think it likely that the Giants would do the same again this year.

The reality is that the Giants have generally been generous with bonuses. I've studied the Giants signing bonuses during the 2000's. I compared their bonus with the bonuses above and below their pick, and 2003 was the only year that they were signficantly below the range of bonus suggested by the picks before and after. Most round 1 picks were actually slightly above what would be expected, if I remember right, and last year Lincecum got a bit more than expected, he got the bonus one would have expected based on the bonuses paid in 2005 draft ($2.0M), not the lowered range that the 2006 draft had (One would have expected around $1.8M based on the #8 and #12 picks's bonuses).

Also, I believe that the A's did not do what the Giants did, which was the Giants could have waited 24 hours to sign Michael Tucker, but signed him early on purpose, in order to lose a draft pick.

That was a calculated risk to add money to the big-league payroll. My draft study showed that the odds are pretty low of finding a good player even with the 21-30th pick overall (about 10%), so they did not give up much plus picked up a replacement prospect when they traded Tucker to the Phillies, a nice prospect Kelvin Pichardo, pitcher.

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