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Tuesday, January 07, 2020

MLB.com: Only 23, A 2-Time All-Star ... And He Could Get Better

If true, a pretty good return for not much more than a fortnight of Aroldis Chapman:

FanGraphs senior writer Dan Szymborski hasn’t released his full ZiPS projections for 2020 yet, but he did give a sneak peek at the forecast for Torres’ next five years on Friday as part of his annual recap of the Yankees’ season. Feast your eyes, Yankees fans:

2020: .287/.348/.557; 136 OPS+; 41 HR
2021: .292/.357/.588; 146 OPS+; 44 HR
2022: .289/.357/.586; 145 OPS+; 44 HR
2023: .289/.359/.602; 150 OPS+; 47 HR
2024: .287/.360/.601; 150 OPS+; 47 HR

Make it happen, Lord ZIPS.

The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 07, 2020 at 10:36 AM | 13 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: fangraphs, gleyber torres, great baseball players, new york yankees, projections, zips

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   1. Brian Posted: January 07, 2020 at 02:27 PM (#5913598)
That would be nice.
   2. Blastin Posted: January 07, 2020 at 03:50 PM (#5913638)
Gleyber day every day.
   3. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 07, 2020 at 03:52 PM (#5913639)
That would be 223 HRs over 5 years, which seems like it could be a record for 2nd basemen or shortstops. Same for 285 HRs over his first 7 years if you include the 62 HRs Torres already hit. Perhaps one of the Play Index wizards will check?
   4. Manny Coon Posted: January 07, 2020 at 04:01 PM (#5913644)
A-Rod had 5 year stretch with 249 when he was still a shortstop and 293 over his first 7 full seasons.
   5. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 07, 2020 at 04:17 PM (#5913651)
. . . and 293 over his first 7 full seasons.
True, but A-Rod would trail Torres if you include his first two ‘cup of coffee’ seasons (and assume the ZIPS projection is the floor for Gleyber).
   6. Itchy Row Posted: January 07, 2020 at 04:31 PM (#5913654)
Here are the leaders for most HR in a player's first seven seasons, which includes cups of coffee. Ernie Banks (228) is the leading middle infielder. Banks played ten games his first year. If you make it his first seven full seasons, he had 267.

Second most among middle infielders is... Dan Uggla.
   7. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 07, 2020 at 04:35 PM (#5913655)
I think the only other guy who would be close is Banks - 207 over a 5-year period and 267 over his first 7 full years (excluding the 2 HR he hit during his 10-game call-up in 1953).*

I will take the under on Torres matching either number.

* A-Rod and Banks have the top 6 single-season HR totals by middle infielders, as well as 8 of the top 10, and 11 of the 15 seasons with 40+ homers.
   8. Itchy Row Posted: January 07, 2020 at 04:38 PM (#5913657)
Here's the same list restricted to 50% of games at second or short. Torres is already #121 on that list, with five years left to add to his numbers.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: January 07, 2020 at 08:09 PM (#5913709)
Kent has the all-time "HR as 2B" record at 351; the "as SS" record is still Ripken's (345) by one over ARod. Gleyber currently has 32 at 2B and 29 at SS. Unless I missed a memo, I assume he's the SS this year. If ZiPS is right and those are all hit at SS, he'll be at 252.

(and assume the ZIPS projection is the floor for Gleyber)

Why in the world would we do that? A good technical question about the ZiPS projection is what environment is it projecting for? If that's the 2019 HR environment, that's somewhat less impressive and, since I think Manfred is under pressure to "fix" the ball, not an environment we're likely to see again anytime soon. On the other hand, if it's something like the average 2017-2019 environment -- which I think is roughly 2017 -- those numbers would put him roughly 3rd to 5th each year. For the last 5 seasons (which includes the half-deadball 2015), Nelson Cruz had the most HRs with 204 so ZiPS Gleyber would blow that out of the water. Over the last 3 years, JDM leads the way with 124 so just over 41 per year which Gleyber also tops. Even for 2019, those numbers would range from 4th to 7th.

Even if ZiPS is overly optimistic, we might be willing to trade you Craig Kimbrel for Gleyber.

EDIT: Here's an odd list ... maybe made better by the better PI wizards ... expansion era players who played at least 500 games at SS and 500 at 2B, the career HR leader (not necessarily hit at those positions) is Dick McAuliffe at 197. Franco 173 and Castro 133 (and counting) are the only other two over 100 HR. Gleyber currently at 174 for 2B and 98 for SS so he's got a ways to go.
   10. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: January 07, 2020 at 10:36 PM (#5913738)
December 28, 2015: Traded by the Cincinnati Reds to the New York Yankees for Eric Jagielo (minors), Caleb Cotham, Rookie Davis and Tony Renda.

July 25, 2016: Traded by the New York Yankees to the Chicago Cubs for Rashad Crawford (minors), Billy McKinney, Gleyber Torres and Adam Warren.


This is why the Reds can't have nice things.
   11. Walt Davis Posted: January 08, 2020 at 08:07 PM (#5914030)
#10: Missing from your transaction record is Dec 7, 2015 when news of the domestic violence broke. A trade with the Dodgers was suspended. (That trade was reported as completed on the same Dec 7 ... it seems it may have been the Dodgers that leaked the info. The return was stated as "two prospects not including Urias.")

The whole things seems very shady by the Reds and, to an extent, other teams. According to this, the Red Sox broke off negotiations in Nov when they learned of this. Another article (well after the fact) says the Cubs also learned of it in Nov and walked away from any possible deal. It sounds like the Dodgers didn't find out until the last minute but, without Urias in the deal, the return was gonna be pretty light. It seems likely the Reds were just trying to unload him before it became public and not telling other teams. Maybe asking for so little concern tipped off the Red Sox and Cubs who then did some investigating -- or maybe not, maybe those checks are routine. Anyway, the stories at the time certainly imply the Reds were not being forthright. Certainly after it went public, it was going to be hard to get full value for him. Further looks like the suspension wasn't announced until Mar in which case the Yanks acquired him not knowing for how long he would be suspended.

If you're wondering what supposedly changed the Cubs' mind, it was reports of good behavior since the incident (and he was never charged). Of course the incident had taken place only 9 months previously, not exactly a long track record of rehabilitation. (To my knowledge/memory, there have been no further incidents in the now 4 years so possibly Chapman has leaned to control his temper.)
   12. bobm Posted: January 08, 2020 at 09:28 PM (#5914042)
From 1908 to 2019, Played: 2B or SS, (requiring HR>=1), Sort by total HR, group of top 425 players with greatest number of games in all seasons matching the selected criteria


                                                    
Rk             Player        #Matching   PA   AB  HR
1           Jeff Kent   337 Ind. Games 1503 1359 357
2      Cal Ripken Jr.   327 Ind. Games 1478 1355 346
3      Alex Rodriguez   309 Ind. Games 1460 1285 344
4       Robinson Cano   287 Ind. Games 1285 1176 311
5       Miguel Tejada   279 Ind. Games 1256 1142 293
6      Rogers Hornsby   260 Ind. Games 1202 1033 280
7         Ernie Banks   254 Ind. Games 1140 1030 280
8       Ryne Sandberg   253 Ind. Games 1156 1045 277
9          Joe Morgan   254 Ind. Games 1181  989 267
10        Derek Jeter   245 Ind. Games 1152 1056 255
11        Chase Utley   230 Ind. Games 1056  953 253
12         Bret Boone   230 Ind. Games 1021  920 252
13         Joe Gordon   226 Ind. Games  998  889 247
14        Ian Kinsler   234 Ind. Games 1084  966 246
15       Lou Whitaker   231 Ind. Games 1067  929 240
16          Dan Uggla   215 Ind. Games  954  828 234
17      Jimmy Rollins   221 Ind. Games 1060  973 230
18       Craig Biggio   214 Ind. Games 1025  922 226
19    Troy Tulowitzki   212 Ind. Games  938  830 224
20        Bobby Doerr   208 Ind. Games  951  865 223
21        Bobby Grich   202 Ind. Games  879  768 216
22      Jose Valentin   196 Ind. Games  855  776 216
23      Vern Stephens   195 Ind. Games  911  822 213
24     Roberto Alomar   193 Ind. Games  894  779 207
25   Brandon Phillips   193 Ind. Games  863  799 206


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/8/2020.
   13. bobm Posted: January 08, 2020 at 09:38 PM (#5914043)
In 1st 1000 career games, most HR at SS or 2B

                                                         
Rk   Gcar            Player        #Matching   PA  AB  HR
1            Alex Rodriguez   231 Ind. Games 1094 975 255
2               Ernie Banks   218 Ind. Games  988 888 240
3                 Dan Uggla   184 Ind. Games  828 719 200
4         Nomar Garciaparra   162 Ind. Games  756 688 181
5           Troy Tulowitzki   168 Ind. Games  750 660 178
6               Chase Utley   153 Ind. Games  709 637 171
7              Brian Dozier   161 Ind. Games  746 676 169
8             Miguel Tejada   156 Ind. Games  701 623 166
9           Alfonso Soriano   146 Ind. Games  705 665 157
10           Cal Ripken Jr.   145 Ind. Games  652 598 152


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/8/2020.

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