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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Monday, December 08, 2008
Twenty-four players were offered salary arbitration by their 2008 clubs on Dec. 1, but only two—the Reds’ Dave Weathers and the Angels’ Darren Oliver—accepted before Sunday night’s deadline.
Combining this information with the Affeldt signing - which nets the Reds a draft pick - there will be between 1 and 23 draft picks in the supplemental round of the 2009 amateur draft, and at most 14 regular picks changing hands.
I’m planning to track the impact on the draft order somewhere, possibly in this thread, as players get signed.
villageidiom
Posted: December 08, 2008 at 01:00 PM | 39 comment(s)
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1. villageidiom Posted: December 08, 2008 at 03:35 PM (#3022801)Type A free agent with highest Elias ranking
...
Type A free agent with lowest Elias ranking
Type B free agent with highest Elias ranking
...
Type B free agent with lowest Elias ranking
In other words, compensation picks for Type-As come before Type-B compensation picks. Normally this is an important distinction because it is possible for a Type-B player to have a higher Elias rating than a Type-A player, as is the case this year for Type-B Milton Bradley (70.909) and Type-A Darren Oliver (70.798). But because Oliver accepted arbitration, there are no Type-Bs ranked above Type-As among the 22 compensible free agents. Thus the draft order in the supplemental round of the 2009 draft will be by descending order of Elias rating of players signed. The ratings:
98.889 Teixeira
98.110 Sabathia
93.438 Ramirez
89.729 Burnett
87.196 Rodriguez, F.
86.694 Fuentes
86.000 Cabrera
83.684 Ibanez
79.911 Hudson
79.038 Sheets
78.694 Perez
76.627 Cruz
76.037 Varitek
75.430 Lowe
70.909 Bradley
69.505 Blake
66.473 Garland
65.451 Shouse
64.922 Byrd
63.729 Lyon
63.000 Affeldt -------------> Reds
62.733 Grudzielanek
57.480 Reyes
As you can see, the Reds' supplemental pick will be somewhere between the 31st and the 51st overall pick... but most likely closer to 51 than 31.
It would be entertaining to correlate Elias rankings and the salaries these guys actually get. :-)
(I know, everybody knows Elias is a silly system and it's what's been agreed to by players and owners so I don't blame Elias.)
You get the pick after the one you failed to sign the previous year. The Nationals get pick 9a (tenth overall), the Mariners will get pick 20a (twenty-two overall) if they fail to sign Joshua Fields (who is still eligible to sign) and the Yankees get 28a (Thirty-one overall if the Mariners don't sign Fields, Thirty if the Mariners do sign him.)
There are three in the first round: the Nationals (pick 9.5, if you will), Mariners (20.5), and Yankees (28.5). The Mariners' pick, Josh Fields, wasn't subjected to the August 15 signing deadline. If he signs any time before the next draft the compensation pick won't exist. But, since he's unsigned as of now, we should count the pick. Tanner Scheppers (48.5, Pirates) is the only second-rounder not to sign. The unsigned third-rounders (Charles Davidson - Astros, Ernest Vasquez - Cardinals, and Ben Pribanic - Mariners) produce picks in a second supplemental round between the 3rd and 4th rounds.
--------------------------
As alluded to above, the Affedlt signing triggered a pick. Affeldt was Type B, which awards a supplemental pick to the team losing him (Reds) but does not cost the signing team (Giants) any of their own picks. As of this moment the Reds have the only supplemental pick, but that will certainly change. As each signing of a compensible free agent (the 22 who declined arbitration) takes place, a supplemental pick will be added. The order is as follows:
Compensation for lost Type A free agent, team with worst 2008 regular-season record
...
Compensation for lost Type A free agent, team with best 2008 regular-season record
Compensation for lost Type B free agent, team with worst 2008 regular-season record
...
Compensation for lost Type B free agent, team with best 2008 regular-season record
In other words, compensation picks for Type-As come before Type-B compensation picks.
Thus the draft order in the supplemental round of the 2009 draft, if every team loses their compensible free agents, will be:
Mariners (Ibanez - A)
Rockies (Fuentes - A)
Diamondbacks (Hudson - A)
Diamondbacks (Cruz - A)
Dodgers (Ramirez - A)
Dodgers (Lowe - A)
Blue Jays (Burnett - A)
White Sox (Cabrera - A)
Mets (Perez - A)
Brewers (Sabathia - A)
Brewers (Sheets - A)
Red Sox (Varitek - A)
Angels (Teixeira - A)
Angels (Rodriguez - A)
Reds (Affeldt - B) <----------------------
Royals (Grudzielanek - B)
Rangers (Bradley - B)
Diamondbacks (Lyon - B)
Dodgers (Blake - B)
Twins (Reyes - B)
Brewers (Shouse - B)
Red Sox (Byrd - B)
Angels (Garland - B)
As you can see, the Reds' supplemental pick will be somewhere between the 31st and the 45th overall pick, depending on who doesn't sign their own free agents. This is before we factor in compensation for unsigned 2008 draft picks. Those will bump the Reds back another 2 or 3 spots.
Draft picks changing hands as of now:
Angels get 25th pick from Mets (F. Rodriguez)
Angels get 26th pick from Yankees (Teixeira)
Mariners get 27th pick from Phillies (Ibanez)
Rockies get 33rd pick from Angels (Fuentes)
Brewers get 65th pick from Yankees (Sabathia)
Blue Jays get 86th pick from Yankees (Burnett)
There are still 16 free agents on the market who were offered arbitration and declined, 8 of which were Type A. Thus, at most 8 more picks will change hands.
Supplemental round picks awarded as of now (receiving team, overall pick, player involved) are:
Mariners, 34th (Ibanez)
Rockies, 35th (Fuentes)
Blue Jays, 36th (Burnett)
Brewers, 37th (Sabathia)
Angels, 38th (Teixeira)
Angels, 39th (F. Rodriguez)
Reds, 40th (Affeldt)
As mentioned above, there are 16 more free agents who could trigger a supplemental round pick.
I've mentioned in other threads that there's a cap on the number of Type A/B players a team can sign in a given year. With 64 such free agents, the cap for most teams is 4; they cannot sign more than 4 Type A/B free agents this offseason. The exception to that is a team losing more than 4 Type A/B players can sign at most the number of A/B players lost. The Dodgers (7), Brewers (5), and Diamondbacks (5) are the only teams that can sign more than 4 Type A/B players.
The tally as of now:
Can sign 0 more:
Can sign 1 more: Giants, Yankees
Can sign 2 more:
Can sign 3 more: Angels, Indians, Mets, Phillies
Can sign 4 more: teams not otherwise listed
Can sign 5 more: Brewers, Diamondbacks
Can sign 6 more:
Can sign 7 more: Dodgers
(Note: the rules are unclear on whether free agents who resign with their original team count against the cap. For example, David Weathers filed for free agency, but accepted arbitration from the Reds. Did the Reds "lose" Weathers given that he filed, and by signing him for one year did they use up one of their 4 spots? Or does he not count against the 4, given that they obviously didn't lose him? I'm assuming the latter, as it's the most sensible interpretation of what a "lost" free agent is. Still, I wanted to point out there could be a different technical interpretation that would cause different results.)
*My first update was typed, then I accidentally deleted it before posting, then I gave up. You shoulda seen it.
Has his relationship with the Brewers taken a turn for the worse?
As for other teams, the Rangers have shown interest, but don't appear to have the money right now. I think Atlanta is an option, if they were willing to give money to Burnett, they shouldn't be shy in offering a deal to Sheets.
BTW, thanks vi for doing this. I wasn't even aware of these restrictions until this offseason.
Sigh......
The question isn't why the Brewers didn't try to extend Sheets to a multi-year deal, it's why Sheets rejected arbitration.
My guess is that Sheets mis-judged the market (or didn't; there's still time for him to sign a big deal).
I don't understand this line of thinking at all. The rules are very clear, and it's not as if they changed during the offseason to accommodate the Yankees. Baseball rules allow a team a "make-up" pick if they don't sign their player from last year, and they lose their rights to the player they drafted. Why should the Brewers be entitled to the Yankees 2008 #1 pick?
Also, if one of the bottom 15 teams signed CC, you would be waiting at the bus stop until the second round anyway. When you trade for a player to get the draft picks, know what the pitfalls are before you enter into the deal.
As was reviewed in earlier threads, it's the notion that Tex is more valuable than CC that I find curious.
And by the way, I knew the rules. Doug Melvin knew the rules. It's the Elias rankings that nobody can really fathom.
But please do be rude for no reason again the future. I am sure it will win you many friends and influence others around you.........
Does anyone (besides Elias) know exactly how the players are ranked?
It's entirely possible that Milwaukee will re-sign both players. But I doubt anyone of note will be signing soon.
I thought the May 1 deadline was wiped out entirely in the last CBA.
They lose Burnett and get the 86th pick as 'compensation'?
Why bother?
True. I was speaking from my expectation (that they won't) rather than reflecting on all possibilities.
Correct. If a team declines to offer arbitration to a player, there's nothing stopping a team from subsequently signing that player (the player's wishes aside).
Because they also have the 36th pick. Notable 36th picks:
Johnny Bench
Randy Johnson
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Travis Buck
Erik Hanson
Bobby Jones
And the 86th pick isn't completely worthless, either:
Ozzie Smith
Chad Ogea
Matt Clement
Shawn Chacon
Kirk Saarloos
Wes Chamberlain
Given the Manny Ramirez rumors, I've double-checked the CBA regarding the cap. Per XX.B.5a:
Previously I took "the number of Players electing free agency under this Section B" to mean "Type A and Type B players", of which there are 64 this year. Advancing the ranges given, that would imply a cap of 4 Type A/B players. But, technically, they're not saying Type A and Type B players. They're saying the total number of major-league free agents is used to determine the cap.
There are (if I counted correctly) 273 players who filed for free agency. That would put the "cap" at 12 Type A/B players... which would effectively mean there's no cap. And if that's the case, why does XX.B.5 exist??
Sigh... I'm standing by my earlier interpretation until proven wrong. Based on that interpretation, the Giants will not sign Manny Ramirez, simply because they can't.
And by the way, I knew the rules. Doug Melvin knew the rules. It's the Elias rankings that nobody can really fathom.
Harveys, I apologize that I don't keep up enough on every thread to know your prevailing opinion on everything. And plus, you are not being completely honest here. What do the Elias rankings have to do with the Yankees keeping the pick they have from Gerrit Cole not signing a contract?
But please do be rude for no reason again the future. I am sure it will win you many friends and influence others around you.........
I spend time during the day making new friends and influencing others. I go on internet chatboards to discuss issues that I find interesting. You seem like a nice enough guy, but to ridicule me because I challenged one of your assertions seems a little overly sensitive.
And the Brewers don't have the ∞ pick. It just feels that way.
Draft picks changing hands as of now, with the new one in bold:
Angels get 25th pick from Mets (F. Rodriguez)
Angels get 26th pick from Yankees (Teixeira)
Mariners get 28th pick from Phillies (Ibanez) <<<
Rockies get 33rd pick from Angels (Fuentes)
Dodgers get 53rd pick from Braves (Lowe)
Brewers get 70th pick from Yankees (Sabathia)
Blue Jays get 101st pick from Yankees (Burnett) <<<
On the lines with <<<, I had errors last time. I'd mentioned that the Mariners would get the 27th pick. They won't: the Brewers have the 27th pick. On the last line, a typo suggested the Jays would get the 86th pick instead of the 96th pick. Both this pick and the Brewers' pick move back 5 slots as there have been 5 additional sandwich picks awarded in that time. More on those later.
Thanks to the signings mentioned above, and those of Varitek, Perez, and Blake - wach of whom re-signed with their 2008 teams - there are only 8 free agents on the market who were offered arbitration and declined. Only 5 of those 8 are Type A, and would trigger the loss of a pick. Thus, at most 5 more picks will change hands.
Supplemental round picks awarded as of now (receiving team, overall pick, player involved) are:
Mariners, 34th (Ibanez)
Rockies, 35th (Fuentes)
Dodgers, 36th (Lowe)
Blue Jays, 37th (Burnett)
Brewers, 37th (Sabathia)
Angels, 38th (Teixeira)
Angels, 39th (F. Rodriguez)
Reds, 40th (Affeldt)
Rangers, 41st (Bradley)
Diamondbacks, 42nd (Lyon)
Brewers, 43rd (Shouse)
Angels, 44th (Garland)
The five bolded picks are new since last time. These slide the start of the second round back five picks. As mentioned above, there are 8 more free agents who could trigger a supplemental round pick, meaning that the second & third round picks could slide back up to 8 more slots. One of these free agents is Paul Byrd, who is not planning to pitch in the first half of the season. MLB has stated that if a free agent remains unsigned past the draft, there will be no compensation awarded to his former team. Until that happens, I'll include him in my count of potential compensation picks.
EDITed to include link to MLB statement in last paragraph. Incidentally, the linked article puts the total number of A/B players a team can sign at 8. Not 4, not 12. I still don't see the point of a cap that high, but that's me.
EDIT: Then again, I notice that you have two #37s listed, and no #31 through #33. So I don't know.
The Braves, finishing in the bottom half of the standings in 2008, cannot lose their first-round pick. Their second-rounder would've been 37th overall, except that (a) there are 4 additional picks (see post #5) ahead of that being awarded for teams not signing their 2008 draftees; and (b) there are as of now 12 supplemental picks awarded before the second round. What was the Braves' second-round pick moves back 16 slots - as of now. It could move all the way back to the 61st pick.
You don't see picks 31-33 in the supplemental round because 3 of the 4 picks awarded for unsigned 2008 draftees take place in the first round. The first round has consequently grown to 33 picks.
EDIT: I have the Braves getting the 7th pick overall. They finished with the same 2008 record as the Giants, and... I don't recall what the tiebreak is. I think it's 2007 record. I'll check.
EDIT again: It is, according to Baseball America.
Draft picks changing hands as of now, with the new one in bold:
Diamondbacks get 17th pick from Dodgers (Hudson)
Angels get 25th pick from Mets (F. Rodriguez)
Angels get 26th pick from Yankees (Teixeira)
Mariners get 28th pick from Phillies (Ibanez)
Rockies get 33rd pick from Angels (Fuentes)
Dodgers get 54th pick from Braves (Lowe)
Brewers get 71st pick from Yankees (Sabathia)
Blue Jays get 102nd pick from Yankees (Burnett)
The Lowe, Sabathia, and Burnett compensation picks all move back one slot because the Hudson signing also triggered a new supplemental pick. Supplemental round picks awarded as of now (receiving team, overall pick, player involved) are:
Mariners, 34th (Ibanez)
Rockies, 35th (Fuentes)
Diamondbacks, 36th (Hudson)
Dodgers, 37th (Lowe)
Blue Jays, 38th (Burnett)
Brewers, 39th (Sabathia)
Angels, 40th (Teixeira)
Angels, 41st (F. Rodriguez)
Reds, 42nd (Affeldt)
Rangers, 43rd (Bradley)
Diamondbacks, 44th (Lyon)
Brewers, 45th (Shouse)
Angels, 46th (Garland)
There are still seven "compensible" free agents out there if you count Paul Byrd, who plans to sign midseason. The other six are Manny Ramirez, Orlando Cabrera, Ben Sheets, Juan Cruz, Mark Grudzielanek, and Dennys Reyes. The latter two and Byrd are Type B, which would generate only a supplemental pick when signed by another team.
Absent any kind of draft pick compensation, one would expect each team to draft twice in the first 60 picks. Here's what each team actually has in the first 60:
5 Angels
5 Mariners
4 Diamondbacks
4 Rockies
3 Rangers
3 Reds
3 Pirates
3 Brewers
3 Nationals
2 Dodgers
2 Padres
2 Blue Jays
2 Orioles
2 Giants
2 Tigers
2 Royals
2 Athletics
1 Braves
1 Yankees
1 Indians
1 Marlins
1 Cardinals
1 Astros
1 Twins
1 White Sox
1 Red Sox
1 Rays
1 Cubs
0 Mets
0 Phillies
Looking at the teams with just one pick in the first 60:
- The Yankees have lost both of their "natural" picks in the first two rounds, but gain one for an unsigned 2008 draftee.
- The Braves have lost their second-rounder for the Lowe signing.
- The other teams simply had their second-rounder bumped back past #60 because of the addition of supplemental round picks.
The Mets and Phillies have no picks in the first 60 because they lost their first-rounder as compensation, and had their second-rounder bumped beyond #60. (The same has happened to the Angels, yet they have five picks in the first 60.)
Here's the one from Feb. 17th. Basically, the Dbacks get the 17th and 35th picks for signing Hudson, and the M's no longer get an additional first rounder since they signed Fields.
Every pick I listed as being above #21 moves up a spot. The Mariners now have 4 picks in the first 60; the Indians, 2 (in my tally they'd had the 61st pick, which moves up to 60).
Draft picks changing hands as of now, with the new ones in bold:
Diamondbacks get 17th pick from Dodgers (Hudson)
Angels get 24th pick from Mets (F. Rodriguez)
Angels get 25th pick from Yankees (Teixeira)
Mariners get 27th pick from Phillies (Ibanez)
Rockies get 32nd pick from Angels (Fuentes)
Dodgers get 55th pick from Braves (Lowe)
Diamondbacks get 59th pick from Royals (Cruz)
White Sox get 60th pick from Athletics (Cabrera)
Brewers get 72nd pick from Yankees (Sabathia)
Blue Jays get 103rd pick from Yankees (Burnett)
The Lowe and subsequent picks all move back two slots because the Cabrera and Cruz signings also triggered new supplemental picks. Supplemental round picks awarded as of now (receiving team, overall pick, player involved) are:
Mariners, 33rd (Ibanez)
Rockies, 34th (Fuentes)
Diamondbacks, 35th (Hudson)
Diamondbacks, 36th (Cruz)
Dodgers, 37th (Lowe)
Blue Jays, 38th (Burnett)
White Sox, 39th (Cabrera)
Brewers, 40th (Sabathia)
Angels, 41st (Teixeira)
Angels, 42nd (F. Rodriguez)
Reds, 43rd (Affeldt)
Rangers, 44th (Bradley)
Diamondbacks, 45th (Lyon)
Brewers, 46th (Shouse)
Angels, 47th (Garland)
All of the above reflects the comment in #32 and #33 that the Mariners lost a compensation pick for an unsigned 2008 draftee, on account of having recently signed him. None of the above reflects the signings of Manny, Sheets, Byrd, Grudzielanek, or Reyes, because AFAIK none of them have signed. But I've been known to miss an occasional detail. ;-)
Based on that it would seem that the Diamondbacks' Type A compensation picks would be back-to-back, in between the Rockies (Fuentes) and, were they not to sign him, the Dodgers (Ramirez). That would be the most obvious interpretation of the rule.
However, in looking at the 2008 draft, it does look like they used the method you describe.
31 Twins (Torii Hunter - A)
32 Brewers (Francisco Cordero - A)
33 Mets (Tom Glavine - A)
34 Phillies (Aaron Rowand - A)
35 Brewers (Scott Linebrink - A)
36 Royals (David Riske - B)
37 Giants (Pedro Feliz - B)
38 Astros (Trever Miller - B)
39 Cardinals (Troy Percival - B)
40 Braves (Ron Mahay - B)
41 Cubs (Jason Kendall - B)
42 Padres (Mike Cameron - B)
43 Diamondbacks (Livan Hernandez - B)
44 Yankees (Luis Vizcaino - B)
45 RedSox (Eric Gagne - B)
46 Padres (Doug Brocail - B)
It seems like they do this in rounds-within-a-round... Pass through each team once for Type A, then pass through each team again, and so on until all the Type A supplemental picks are done; then repeat the exercise for Type B supplemental picks.
Yeesh. I was hoping, just once, to post something in this thread without it being wrong. Here's the supplemental round under the newly-learned rule as opposed to the published rule:
Mariners, 33rd (Ibanez)
Rockies, 34th (Fuentes)
Diamondbacks, 35th (Hudson)
Dodgers, 36th (Lowe)
Blue Jays, 37th (Burnett)
White Sox, 38th (Cabrera)
Brewers, 39th (Sabathia)
Angels, 40th (Teixeira)
Diamondbacks, 41st (Cruz)
Angels, 42nd (F. Rodriguez)
Reds, 43rd (Affeldt)
Rangers, 44th (Bradley)
Diamondbacks, 45th (Lyon)
Brewers, 46th (Shouse)
Angels, 47th (Garland)
Thanks, levski, for finding this.
Draft picks changing hands as of now, with the new ones in bold:
Diamondbacks get 17th pick from Dodgers (Hudson)
Angels get 24th pick from Mets (F. Rodriguez)
Angels get 25th pick from Yankees (Teixeira)
Mariners get 27th pick from Phillies (Ibanez)
Rockies get 32nd pick from Angels (Fuentes)
Dodgers get 56th pick from Braves (Lowe)
Diamondbacks get 60th pick from Royals (Cruz)
White Sox get 61st pick from Athletics (Cabrera)
Brewers get 73rd pick from Yankees (Sabathia)
Blue Jays get 104th pick from Yankees (Burnett)
The Lowe and subsequent picks all move back one slot because the Cardinals signed Denny Reyes, which triggered a new supplemental pick. Supplemental round picks awarded as of now (receiving team, overall pick, player involved) are:
Mariners, 33rd (Ibanez)
Rockies, 34th (Fuentes)
Diamondbacks, 35th (Hudson)
Dodgers, 36th (Lowe)
Blue Jays, 37th (Burnett)
White Sox, 38th (Cabrera)
Brewers, 39th (Sabathia)
Angels, 40th (Teixeira)
Diamondbacks, 41st (Cruz)
Angels, 42nd (F. Rodriguez)
Reds, 43rd (Affeldt)
Rangers, 44th (Bradley)
Diamondbacks, 45th (Lyon)
Twins, 46th (Reyes)
Brewers, 47th (Shouse)
Angels, 48th (Garland)
Pirates, 49th (Scheppers)
The Twins pick is new, with the Brewers and Angels picks getting slightly worse. The Pirates pick is not: it's their compensation for not having signed a 2008 draft pick. He was the 48th overall pick last year, which means the Pirates get as compensation the 49th pick this year. With the first round extending to 32 picks (because of 2008 unsigned draft pick compensation) and the supplemental round having 16 picks, the Pirates' compensation pick will take place either as the first pick in the second round, or the last pick in the supplemental round, however you want to look at it. I've listed it in the supplemental round because it could have an impact on these picks as more supplemental picks are added, if any. For example, if Mark Grudzielanek signs with some team other than the Royals, KC gets a supplemental pick after the Affeldt comp pick. Every pick in the draft from the Bradley comp pick onward then moves back one slot. However, because the 2008 unsigned comp picks are static - the Pirates get the 49th overall pick regardless of anything else - the Angels' pick from the Garland signing moves back two slots to #50, skipping over the Pirates' pick. (And if that happens, the Pirates' pick is definitely in the supplemental round.)
There are only three compensible free agents left: Ben Sheets (the only Type A), who is having surgery; Paul Byrd, who says he has no intention of signing until midseason; and Grudzielanek, whose last name is hard to spell from memory. There shouldn't be many more changes to the draft order.
compensable? ?/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [kuhm-pen-suh-buhl]
–adjective eligible for or subject to compensation, esp. for a bodily injury.
(I would have thought it "compensatable", so you were closer than I would have been).
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