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Friday, August 27, 2010
A.L. M.V.P. ... Cano (6.3 [WAR]) is the front-runner, with tremendous offense and good defense at a premium defensive position. He has been the Yankees’ best player by nearly two and a half wins this year.
N.L. M.V.P. ... Roy Halladay (6.3 WAR), Adam Wainwright (6.1) and Tim Hudson (5.9) have been more valuable than [Adrian] Gonzalez thus far. But the M.V.P. award has not gone to a starting pitcher since Vida Blue in 1971, and the voters are not likely to change that, barring a Bob Gibson-in-1968 performance.
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1. Big fan Posted: August 27, 2010 at 01:34 PM (#3627184)O RLY?
Well I'm no longer excited for the triple crown race between Pujols & Votto. It's pretty likely Infante is going to #### it up.
I guess the 3 other guys in the Yankees lineup with 20+ HR already, including Tex's 28, hasn't helped Cano carry the Yankees. Wasn't Tex the NY pick for MVP last year? The only difference between 2009 Texeira and 2010 Texeira is about 30 points in BABIP. So it's not like Cano has been a 1 man show in NY this summer.
Sean mentions 4 hitter in the NL MVP race. On BBRef, they rate:
Pujols 58 RAR
Gonzalez 55 RAR
Huff 52 RAR
Votto 48.5 RAR
But at fangraphs, they rate:
Votto 58.5 RAR
Pujols 57.8 RAR
Huff 48 RAR
Gonzalez 46.1 RAR
Part of the difference is how the two sites rate defense - Votto is -4 runs fielding at bbref, but +3.5 at fangraphs; Pujols is 3.8 runs better by fangraphs; Huff, however, is nearly 10 runs better at bbref. What's surprising to me, though, is that Gonzalez is 7 runs better hitting at bbref than at fangraphs.
Here's Sean's premise in the article: and But - how useful is WAR if the two most commonly cited versions differ on player value by 16-17% on 2 of the top hitters in just one league?
By the way, his article doesn't mention Josh Hamilton in the AL. BBRef has Hamilton as 4th in the AL with 57 RAR, but fangraphs has him first by an entire win over Longoria - Hamilton's defense is rated 13 runs better by fangraphs.
Personally I thought Beltre was the most valuable 3B in both leagues. Fangraphs WAR has Longoria only a tick higher. I don't feel like digging into it right now, but memory/eyeball test tells me Beltre's D hasn't been it's usual stellar self this season.
In the NL it's very tough. There is a lot of baseball to be played. A monster September by Pujols that vaults the Cardinals over the Reds would make him my favorite, but as of now he's had a down year by his own standards. I see that pitchers have dominated the WAR leaderboards for the NL all season long. But between Halladay, Johnson, Wainwright, Hudson, Jimenez, etc. there isn't much separation, and it changes from start to start. If Wainwright were having one of his better years with the bat that would put him over the top in my opinion, but he's not. This is the first year Wainwright has a at least one PA but has not hit a homerun. And his batting average is barely over Brandon Wood's career line.
Way over-complicated.
Thumbs up.
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