He’s coming off a very uneven 2020: 3 starts with no earned runs; 3 with 1; 1 with 2; and a bunch of lousy starts, 3 with 5 earned runs, 1 with 7 & 1 with 8. Who knows what he’ll do at age-37.

If it's not a lot of money, this could be OK. I always thought Lester would be one of those lefties who manages to transition to lesser stuff and I thought 2018 was step 1. But then the K-rate rebounded in 2019 but he got knocked around a good bit. Then in 2020, the K-rate plummeted and he got knocked around a good bit. That's rarely a good combination. Still, the WHIP is solid and he can get back to average if he can drop the HR rate considerably. (Or he could go the Tewksbury, Carlos Silva 2005, Phil Hughes 2014 route and simply refuse to walk anybody.) He's turning 37 but you can't ask for better durability -- the man hasn't missed a turn since at least 2007, maybe not since 2002. Anyway, as 5th starter virtually guaranteed to give you 150 innings, he can do that. Expecting and paying for more would not be a good idea.

His velo is below 90 mph now. I'd give him a minor league invite, but I don't think he's worth guaranteed money anymore.

2020 is hard to gauge but I’d bet he won’t last the year

Heyman says $5M guaranteed.

the man hasn't missed a turn since at least 2007, maybe not since 2002.

We've found the key to pitcher longevity - cancer.

His velo is below 90 mph now.

May I introduce you to Kyle Henricks?

In 2019 (per statcast), Marco Gonzalez, Mike Leake, Brett Anderson, Wainwright, Teheran and Greinke joined Kyle in the sub-90 4-seam club. Anibal, Lester, Fiers, Ryu and Miley were sub-91. They were all around the same for sinkers. All of those guys were average to excellent in 2019 (selection bias) but only Teheran, Anibal and Lester weren't average or better in 2020. Of course Lester and Anibal are the old farts (and Greinke) ... don't blame Teheran, it's not his fault the Angels made the best offer.

But yes, Lester looked suspiciously toasty in 2020 although as #1 notes, he had his moments (most #5 types do). So I'm not sure he'll finish (or even start) the year either. If the aged crafty lefty is now in history's dustbin, that's a shame. But y'know, CC looked very toasty in 2015 ... then threw nearly 600 innings of 110 ERA+ over the next 4 seasons with a FB under 90.

I do want to celebrate that consistency. In a 5-man rotation, a starter gets 32-33 starts. Occasionally they might get a 34th thanks to early season off-days or the AS break.

For the 12 seasons 2008-19, Lester had 385 starts, an average of 32 plus one extra. His fewest starts in a season was 31 (twice); the max was 33 (3 times). The Cubs played 60 in 2020 and he started 12. He did get skipped once (maybe even 1.5 times) in the majors in 2007 but still made it to 29 starts and one relief appearance across minors/majors.

Who is the all-time standard for that sort of consistency? Can anyone come close to Maddux and Glavine?

Spahn has a case. He returned mid-46 (24 appearances, 16 starts) then 592 starts and 56 relief through 63. In 64, not sure what was going on but 25 starts and 13 relief (11 GF) then 30 starts and a few relief at 44.

Perry made 35-41 starts per year from 1966-75 then 30-37 through 83 (exc the 81 strike when he still squeezed in 23). He was 44 in that last season and hung them up. Carlton seems like the kinda guy that should have gotten hurt but from 68-84 made 33-41 starts (24 in 81), missed about half the year at 40 but came back with 32 starts at 41. Niekro as you might have guessed.

Cheating of course -- anybody with a ton of innings/starts can't have missed much time. 300 wins takes at least 600 starts so ya gotta have a big run in there somewhere. Lester is closer to Jack Morris 1980-92 with a whopping 25 in 1981 but just 24 in 1989 to break the string. Or Seaver 67-79. It's probably just my imagination but it seems far less common these days.

He is only 7 wins away from #200. I hope he can at least get to that before he retires. Kershaw/Scherzer are the 2nd closest active pitchers to 200 wins, both being tied at 175.

Dan Haren had a nice stretch from 2005-15 where he made 30+ starts. He also threw 215+ innings seven years in a row from 2005-11.

the man hasn't missed a turn since at least 2007, maybe not since 2002.

In 2006 he last pitched on August 23. He had 26 starts at that point and it was cancer that ended his season. As far as I'm aware nothing as mundane as an arm injury has ever stopped Lester from taking his turn.

I'd like to see him get to 200 wins (he's 7 away). He probably needs to Moyer a couple seasons to get serious HoF consideration, but I'd like to see that happen, too.

Fascinating career so far. Beat cancer. Lead role in chicken and beer. Won three WS rings (including an outstanding performance in 2013). Started and fell apart in one of the more bizarre playoff games of the last 20 years (Royals' win in the '14 WC game). Went 0-66 to start his career then turned into an adequate hitter for a pitcher. Somehow functioned without being able to make a pickoff throw to first.

Somehow functioned without being able to make a pickoff throw to first.

Actually to add to the fascinating bit of his career he had a good pickoff move when he came up. 5 pickoffs in just 15 starts in 2006 and 21 from 2006-2011 and controlled the running game well those years. Then in 2012 it went to hell. I don't remember anything happening (we can blame Bobby Valentine I suppose) but after 2011 he didn't have another pickoff until 2015 by which point the cat was out of the bag (even his last couple of years with the Sox he didn't allow a lot of stolen bases).

It wasn't just pickoffs... he couldn't field bunts and needed to underhand dribblers to the mound, too.

Do you dock him further for basically reducing fielders by one or do you give his pitching bonus points because he was short a defender (himself!)?

Do you dock him further for basically reducing fielders by one or do you give his pitching bonus points because he was short a defender (himself!)?

It should be accounted for in his RA/ERA numbers, though perhaps not as much in some of the advanced metrics.

His ERA is 3.60, which is slightly less than his career FIP (3.69). 92% of his runs allowed are earned, which is exactly average. His catchers have thrown out 30% of base stealers against him, which is slightly average.

Lester has some extremely obvious weaknesses, but has done an incredible job compensating for them.

The most successful Red Sox pitcher developed since Clemens, he was fun to watch not just because he was often very, very good, but because he was interesting:

- He was almost part of what would have been one of the most consequential trades of my lifetime: Manny+Lester to Texas for ARod.
- From a young age, beating cancer at age 22 (!), then wondering how he would come back from it.
- The whole pickoff throw thing.
- Crazy intensity on the mound - to entertaining levels for the fans. He was fun to watch.

- By age 24, he was clearly becoming an extremely valuable player for Boston: a young, power, left-handed starter who wasn't going to miss a start, give you 200 innings, etc. This was at a time (2008-2009) when Red Sox fans were thinking we might be the New England Patriots of MLB: extremely well-run, really smart coaching and management, the ability to surround a handful of core players with revolving talent, and always right there at the end for a chance at another championship, after decades of failure. Lester very quickly got to the place where he would clearly be at the least the #2 starter on a championship team...but there was always an anticipation that he had one more gear to go. He wasn't quite an ace, but he'd have these stretches where he would pitch like one of the five best pitchers in baseball.Lester was very good, and well-liked...and yet, because he didn't quite get to "ace" levels, the fans were a little disappointed.

When his contract was coming up at the end of 2014, and he started the season pitching as well as he ever had, the debate about whether to unload the vault for him was the topic in sports radio. He's only 30, he's durable, he's pitching well...but do you a pay a guy like an ace going into his 30s if he isn't really an ace? And the team was horrible in 2014, on the heels of the unlikely 2013 championship. I think Boston fans, having experienced three WS titles in 10 years, a bunch of Super Bowls, an NBA title, etc., were less insistent on the Red Sox "going for it" than we all would have been a decade earlier.

At any rate, outside of 2016, when he was truly pitching at ace levels, he remained what he had been for Boston while on the Cubs - a very good pitcher who eventually lost some of his fastball, and declined in a predictable fashion. It would've been interesting to see Boston take a one-year flier on Lester, since the team is looking for short-term bandaids while the farm system rebuilds. I think the fan base would've loved to cheer for him one more year, and see if he could pull a Frank Tanana or something for a few years.

Went 0-66 to start his career then turned into an adequate hitter for a pitcher.

Lester's batting highlights

The walk off bunt was fantastic. One of my favorite Sunday Night games.

Walt Davis: "Old Cub!"

Lester: "Nat!"

Walt: "Nat, sorry. What team plays in that stadium over there?"

Lester: "I'm 37."

Walt: "What?"

Lester: "I'm 37, I'm not old."

Walt: "Well I can't just call you crafty aged lefty."

Lester: "What I object to is you automatically treating me like an inferior."

Walt: "Well I *am* Walt Davis."

Lester: "Oh a stathead eh, very nice."

Walt: "Be quiet! Toasty southpaw!"

Lester: "Ah, now we see the bias inherent in the system. Help, help! I'm being regresssed!"

Having watched Lester's career with the Red Sox I'm surprised that the first post suggests he's a good candidate to transition to a crafty lefty. He never seemed to have the kind of touch for that.

The first requirement to be a called crafty lefty is to throw with your left hand. It helps to either be old (in baseball years) and/or throw with below average velocity. Lester qualifies on all counts.

#22 Young Frank Tanana certainly didn't look like a candidate for crafty leftydom. Until he lost the A++ fastball that is.

I think most left-handed starters who became "crafty" started off thinking they could get guys out with heat...and then realized they could not. For some, they realize it at 13 years old. Others realize it after their arm blows up at 28 years old. We'll see if Lester can learn it at 37 years old (probably not). The thing is, when you are a lefty, I think teams will give you more chances to figure it out. You don't hear a lot about "crafty righties" out there!

Don Sutton threw 225 IP as a rookie with Koufax and Drysdale in 1966 and kept going with 200+ IP through 1986 (pro-rating for 1981 strike year).

in 1987, he threw a mere 192 IP. had 31 to 40 starts in all 22 seasons (pro-rating yada yada). always a 92 ERA+ or better except a 78 in his second season.

#22 Young Frank Tanana certainly didn't look like a candidate for crafty leftydom. Until he lost the A++ fastball that is.

It makes me a bad fan, I know - but I did not realize/completely forgot that Tanana was LH until this comment I looked him up.

That said, at least I have my long-awaited answer to "What does this have to do with Frank Tanana?"

What a fun, fun pitcher. So glad I got to live in Chicago and root for him.

Right now, his career stats are a dead ringer for Jimmy Key. Mark Buehrle (who has Hall of Merit support) is basically "Lester + 600 innings." Alas, I don't see Lester having 600 more innings in the tank.

#28 So a plausible Hall of Honorable Mention candidate?

The thing is, when you are a lefty, I think teams will give you more chances to figure it out. You don't hear a lot about "crafty righties" out there!

Only lefties can be "crafty," by definition, because it's a fiction invented to explain the otherwise mysterious success of left-handed pitchers who don't have great stuff. On average, LHP throw much slower than RHP and also have less movement on their pitches. Most LHP succeed *only* because they throw with their left hand, which gives them an advantage (because young players face so few LHP when they are young and learn to hit). In fact, if pitchers were selected purely based on the quality of their pitches (velocity, movement, and command), something like 70% of MLB southpaws wouldn't make the cut. There would really be no point to applying the "crafty" label to a righty, as their success can be tied to qualities we can actually observe.

slightly average. Definition of cromulent.

#21: I have no idea what you're on about. I'm the one who said this signing could be OK.

Kyle Hendricks is a crafty righty. So were Maddux, Pedro (with great stuff), Perry. So were OK pitchers like Tewksbury and Jon Garland.

But yes, the transition from relatively high-K stuff guy to crafty seems more a LHP thing. Getting by on guile into your late 30s and even early 40s seems more a LHP thing. That impression may of course be wrong which anybody here is welcome to do the digging on to demonstrate. LHP also seem more likely to peak later. Sometimes that's just the standard great stuff, no contol learning control (Unit) but no always. Other than knucklers, no RHP comes to mind that looks at all like Moyer ... or the less bizarre Jim Rooker (120 ERA+ from 30-34) or Jeff Fassero (a high-K pitcher for his day but didn't make the majors until 28, not full-time starter until 31) or Larry Gura (not given a real shot until 27, not full-time until 30 ... faded just as quickly).

I'm perfectly willing to accept that the old, crafty lefty is a myth. I'd like the evidence though.

As to Lester being a candidate for it ... obviously just impressions but he's struck me as baseball smart, determined, a "battler" so he seems the type that would be willing to adjust to stay out there. He didn't walk many, had good K/BB ratios, his control improved as he aged so he clearly has good control and knows how to spot a pitch. Don't those seems like the "tools" one needs to successfully transition when the stuff fades?

Per statcast, Lester lost 1.3 MPH off his 4-seamer and 1.2 off the cutter between 2016 and 2017. The cutter stayed about the same but the FB continued to drop a little bit through 2019, 2.1 MPH slower by then. He managed to maintain the K-rate but did have that big drop in 2018 which I expected to be his future. That looks like a guy successfully adjusting to reduced stuff but maybe it's just the reduction in stuff.

Other than knucklers, no RHP comes to mind that looks at all like Moyer ... or the less bizarre Jim Rooker (120 ERA+ from 30-34) or Jeff Fassero (a high-K pitcher for his day but didn't make the majors until 28, not full-time starter until 31) or Larry Gura (not given a real shot until 27, not full-time until 30 ... faded just as quickly).

Paul Byrd maybe? Made the majors at 24, but not a starter until 27, or a regular starter until 28. Pitched 10 more seasons while striking out a total of about 37 batters. Pretty decent success from age 30-45, then ERA+ in the 90s from 35-37, done at 38.

I'm perfectly willing to accept that the old, crafty lefty is a myth. I'd like the evidence though.

If "crafty" just means low-velocity, then there are obviously both RHP and LHP who qualify. There are about as many RHP as LHP whose fastballs are under 90 mph. But LHP (27%) are proportionately much more likely than RHP (10%) to have such limited velocity. And there's no reason to believe these lefties are any more wily, or more accurate, or more anything else that can explain their success (other than throwing with their left hand). I think "crafty" is just a word that evolved over time to explain away the success of many LHPs who don't seem to do any of the things usually associated with pitching success.

Well, one thing that lefties can do to mitigate the loss/absence of velocity that isn't as available to the same degree to righthanders is control the running game/pick runners off. Erasing baserunners, which is mostly a lefty thing, is a crafty element of pitching.

34. Yeah, but holding baserunners better just isn't worth much, especially in today's game. It reduces runs per game for LHP by about 0.05.

31. Forgot to include the evidence.

34. Yeah, but holding baserunners better just isn't worth much, especially in today's game. It reduces runs per game for LHP by about 0.05.

Holding them maybe not so much. Picking them off is pretty valuable in any era.

More relevant to the discussion is how that ability can contribute to the crafty appellation.

The 0.05 runs included CS.

I don't think a good pickoff move is what people usually mean by "crafty." But it's hard to say, since as I said it doesn't really mean anything at all. The reasoning sequence goes like this: "this lefty has nothing, but I still can't hit him," so therefore "he must be really wily/crafty/deceptive."

26. Howie Menckel Posted: January 19, 2021 at 01:27 PM (#6000553)
Don Sutton threw 225 IP as a rookie with Koufax and Drysdale in 1966 and kept going with 200+ IP through 1986 (pro-rating for 1981 strike year).

in 1987, he threw a mere 192 IP. had 31 to 40 starts in all 22 seasons (pro-rating yada yada). always a 92 ERA+ or better except a 78 in his second season.

.............

from the HOF tracker thread:

556. flournoy Posted: January 19, 2021 at 05:22 PM (#6000639)
I'm sure a new article will be submitted soon, but for now: Don Sutton just died.

.................

[so this has a vaguely "Beetlejuice" ring to it.]

Paul Byrd

I think this guy once threw like an 86 pitch, 2 hour complete game when on the Red Sox. I like pitchers that are the masters of weak contact.

I sorta thought that "crafty lefty" was basically a joke, making fun of a sportswriter cliche that became especially ubiquitous in the Moyer Era and its wake. I didn't realize people here thought it was actually a real thing. That said, "this lefty has nothing, but I still can't hit him" seems like it would actually be a perfect definition for "crafty lefty". Which is all just a roundabout way of saying that I don't really understand the bee that GuyM has in his bonnet.

If this deal is only $5 million guaranteed, I would have liked to see the Cubs get in on that action, what with having so few actual starters and all. Lester may be toast, but a) 2020 doesn't seem like a really good piece of evidence for that, and b) for $5 million and a lack of obviously better options, what's the harm of trying.

Tanana had 23 CG in 1976, then tossed 14 straight CG in 1977 from April 29-July 3. this included 5 shutouts and CGs of 10 and 11 IP.

then, for reasons none of us will ever understand, he lasted a total of just 10 IP in his next 3 (bad) outings. The Angels decided he should work it off, and he was outstanding in his next 3 starts after that (w 2 more CG). then another bad, 5 IP, start - but then 3 gems while coming up just one out short of 3 straight CG.

oddly, he opened September with a poor start and that it was it for his year. he led the AL in ERA (2.54) and ERA+ (154). he was 23 years old, and he already had 73 MLB CG in the bank.

5 straight years of mediocrity (ERA+ of 95 to 105 each year) then ensued.

wily Tanana emerged at age 29 and 30, with 127 ERA+s that were the best of his post-age-23 career.

Tanana had THIRTEEN seasons of ERA+s of 90 to 111 after his age 23 season.

(amazingly, he does not yet have a SABR bio in spite of going 240-236 with a 106 ERA+ in 616 career starts.)

41 If there is a bio of Tanana, hopefully, it can quote from the LA Times story "The Fox Score" (yes, it is about what you might think) with a photo of a wild-eyed young Tanana (who is also a source for the story).

Should you think I make this stuff up, you can see a shot of a story headlined "Angel's Tanana Lists Fox Score" (a google search away). Why can I not find Bill Lee's comment about things being strange because the poles have shifted, Dick Pole was traded to Seattle? Oh well.

Good luck to Lester if he can a second (or third act), he could get in the HOF (or not)

I'll nominate late-career Bartolo and recent-vintage Lance Lynn for crafty righties.

I'll nominate late-career Bartolo and recent-vintage Lance Lynn for crafty righties.

Lance Lynn fastball velocity:
2015 93.2
2017 92.5
2018 94.0
2019 94.8
2020 94.6

Old Bart didn’t throw hard, but he was a one pitch pitcher. He succeeded by putting his 88-90 fastball exactly where he wanted it. I wouldn’t call that crafty but maybe you do.

My inclination is to think of a one-pitch pitcher as crafty, thus why I pointed to Colon and Lynn (who I didn't realize threw that hard—thanks, GuyM). Then I realize I never thought of Rivera as crafty. So I don't know.

If Old Bart wasn't "crafty", I don't know who was. Pedro Martinez had a great segment on MLB Network explaining his success. He could minutely adjust his grip to shade his fastball anywhere from "straight 4-seam" to "Rivera cutter". He also kept 91-92 in reserve for one or two critical moments per game.

Seems to me that Greinke is the current holder of the "crafty righty" title. He even has an ephus pitch!

Low-velocity righties do have other identifiable skills, like great control or an exceptional off-speed pitch, that allow them to survive in MLB. What I was trying to say earlier (not very clearly, apparently) is that low-velocity lefties are different: they can survive simply because they have the advantage of throwing with their left hand. My suspicion is that the "crafty" label took hold as a way to explain the mysterious success of many southpaws with mediocre stuff, but it's so vague that it doesn't actually explain anything. Adam Wainwright has an excellent curve, Greinke a superb change, and Bartolo great control, but lefties are just "crafty."

#21: I have no idea what you're on about. I'm the one who said this signing could be OK.

No actual commentary intended Walt, just riffing on a scene from Monty Python and the Holy Grail. (I had to look up Lester's age and it amused me that he is 37, just as in the scene. :) )

RHP of the soft-tossing variety always seem to get tagged with nicknames like "the professor" - denoting a sort of cerebral approach to pitching...

LHP get called "crafty"... which seems to have connotations of more underhanded or less than wholly above board approach to pitching...

which seems to have connotations of more underhanded or less than wholly above board approach to pitching...

As befits those with a sinister delivery.