User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 0.3093 seconds
48 querie(s) executed
| ||||||||
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
| ||||||||
Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Friday, March 10, 2023Nationals, Keibert Ruiz Agree To Eight-Year Extension
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: March 10, 2023 at 09:50 PM | 15 comment(s)
Login to Bookmark
Tags: keibert ruiz, nationals |
Login to submit news.
Support BBTFThanks to You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks. Hot TopicsNewsblog: Omnichatter for September 2023
(479 - 5:47pm, Sep 21) Last: Howie Menckel Newsblog: As Padres’ season spirals, questions emerge about culture, cohesion and chemistry (35 - 5:46pm, Sep 21) Last: Stevey Newsblog: Qualifying Offer Value To Land Around $20.5MM (3 - 5:38pm, Sep 21) Last: Howie Menckel Newsblog: OT Soccer - World Cup Final/European Leagues Start (93 - 5:31pm, Sep 21) Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter) Newsblog: OT: Wrestling Thread November 2014 (2969 - 5:10pm, Sep 21) Last: tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Newsblog: The Athletic: How the $445 million Mets crashed and burned (7 - 5:03pm, Sep 21) Last: NaOH Hall of Merit: Reranking First Basemen: Results (8 - 4:22pm, Sep 21) Last: Chris Cobb Newsblog: Oakland vs. the A's: The inside story of how it all went south (to Las Vegas) (6 - 4:20pm, Sep 21) Last: Walt Davis Newsblog: MLB playoffs 2023: Orioles clinch postseason berth (10 - 3:40pm, Sep 21) Last: Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Newsblog: Can Freddie Freeman Re-Open the 3,000 Hit Club? (48 - 3:31pm, Sep 21) Last: NaOH Newsblog: Republicans propose $614M in public funds for Brewers' stadium upgrades (32 - 11:47am, Sep 21) Last: Jobu is silent on the changeup Newsblog: The ragtag team that saved Darryl Strawberry’s career (4 - 8:02am, Sep 21) Last: Steve Parris, Je t'aime Newsblog: 200 WINS! Adam Wainwright caps career with long-awaited milestone (29 - 7:36am, Sep 21) Last: Adam Starblind Newsblog: Rays to announce St. Petersburg stadium deal this week (22 - 9:27pm, Sep 20) Last: Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Hall of Merit: Reranking Pitchers 1893-1923: Ballot (2 - 9:05pm, Sep 20) Last: kcgard2 |
|||||||
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2021 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
|
| Page rendered in 0.3093 seconds |
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. Walt Davis Posted: March 11, 2023 at 01:22 AM (#6120128)If the Nationals waited until he had completed another pre-arb year or two before approaching Ruiz about a long-term deal, much of the incentive for Ruiz to sign such a deal is gone (or the money has to be a lot higher). I think teams often want to wait until they are pretty sure the player is going to be durable and quality before offering the money...but then it is putting all the risk on the player, and very little on the team.
This deal feels fair because the risks and rewards seem very similar on both sides.
Seems like a good deal for both teams. I wonder if the Nats will now try a Braves approach with all the young talent
I see it about the same way as your summary. Money beyond a certain point is essentially an accounting fiction. I don't know precisely where that point lies, but it's probably somewhere close to what he's guaranteed.
It depends on the person in question's life goals usually. But, most people get 99.5% of the value from the first $20M. You can basically buy a perpetual upper middle class lifestyle with that and take multiple vacations a year as well without having to work unless you choose to do so.
I have just sold my private solo practitioner wealth management practice (I even had two MLB players as clients too, one a HoFer, the other a guy with a long-enough career to make real money at it, but wasn't a great player in anyone's mind....strangely, I got both as referrals from another client who owns a waste management firm.....athletes go to their garbage guy to find financial advice.....or was it just this guy?). I can say with decent confidence that unless you're looking to bend the world itself to your will, beyond $20M is basically gravy. I'd even go further and say beyond $5M is mostly gravy. But, that is post-tax money too. Given how athletes are taxed (and functionally taxed by agents as well), Ruiz is likely to only keep $15-20M of that $50M, even before living a lifestyle. If he's sensible though, he's basically got close to the $20M I'm citing, so, good for him.
I have foolishly undertaken a strange project of my own and have found that projects can easily be money pits. I recommend athletes stay clear of this stuff. Who knew fixing up a 32000 acre island's infrastructure would be so expensive? At least London is paying 1/3rd of the bill since its a UK dependency. In positive news though, if my project works out, it'll provide a model for self sufficiency with carbon neutrality in a scale as small as 32000 acres and 4300 inhabitants.
Will Smith will make $5.25 M in his first arb year -- is Ruiz gonna be as good as Smith? Contreras hit the FA jackpot this offseason (still only 5/$87.5) but had made just $22.5 M to this point. As mentioned, the first 8 service years of Christian Vazquez (7 WAR, -2 WAA, 85 OPS+) cost just $23 M and he was able to sign for 3/$30 this offseason (through age 34). Yan Gomes (18 WAR, 5.5 WAA) just finished his 10+ service year and has $38 M in career earnings with 1/$6.5 to go. Travis d'Arnaud (7 WAR, -2 WAA) just finished his 9th service year, total earnings of $34 (with $8 more coming), about $10 through his arb years. Even Realmuto through his arb years cost only $20 M ... then he hit the big jackpot of 5/$115.
So Ruiz comes out very well if he is a standard starting C like Vazquez/Gomes/d'Arnaud; he "left money on the table" if he turns out as good as Realmuto, Contreras, Murphy. I don't know anything about Ruiz but I assume the latter three are not particularly likely outcomes -- but if he does add some power then maybe so.
In short: it’s front-loaded.
With the exception of a monster like Tatis's contract (and maybe the Carroll contract), these contracts always are. It's part of the attraction for both player and team. With a signing bonus (doesn't have to be very big) and a little extra salary in the pre-arb year, the player gets to start living a bit of the good life immediately. Taken together with arb salaries, the team is usually paying the max for arb -- if the numbers you report are correct, Ruiz makes $25 M through his arb years -- more than Realmuto or Contreras, $4 M less than Murphy will make, probably close to Will Smith. That is, he's gonna get paid over the next 5 years like he's the best young C in the game without having to prove he's the best young C in the game. What's not to like?
The team makes it back through cheap FA years and cheap option years. Those first 2 FA years are often surprisingly cheap. Acuna makes the same $17 for his last 2 arb and first 2 FA years. Harris makes $10 in his last arb year then $10 and $12 (that one is really front-loaded) then a $15/$5 option followed by a $20/$5 option.
So for the player it's "no injury risk and you can buy your mom a house now" and for the team it's "we might have a huge bargain in 6-7 years." The only question here is whether a player like Ruiz is likely to be a huge bargain in 6 years. If he's Vazquez, Gomes, d'Arnaud then they will have paid him like a star C in his arb years only to be paying him something close to market rate for a solid C in his FA/option years (and that's if his knees still work.)
I was just making a point that the $50M is worth more to most people than the next $450M, which is putting a zero on the end of it (a factor of 10), this is true.
Ruiz just put up 2+ WAR at 23, an age when Sean Murphy was still in AAA. I think his chances to exceed Murphy are higher than you think, even if I think his chance to be Realmuto is slim.
I think Ruiz left money on the table. But, he did it for the right reason, certainty. That first big payout is worth more than everything that comes after it combined for most people.
D'oh! I was of course looking at a WAA table not a WAR table. Apologies for the confusion.
$1MM in 2023
$6MM in 2024
$5MM annually between 2025-27
$7MM in 2028
$9MM annually between 2029-30
Reports last week indicated the deal contained club options covering the 2031 and ’32 seasons, though the value of those provisions hadn’t previously been known. Heyman now pegs the option values at $12MM and $14MM, respectively. There are no buyouts on the options. That structure takes the maximum value of Ruiz’s deal to ten years, $76MM if both club options are exercised.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main