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Tuesday, October 01, 2019

Nationals Reportedly Made Recent Extension Offer To Anthony Rendon

The Nationals have made a late-season push to retain pending free agent star Anthony Rendon, according to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post.

Per the report, the club dangled a seven-year offer in the range of $210MM to $215MM. While there were deferrals in the proposal, it would’ve functioned more like the Max Scherzer contract than the long-fuse offer the team made last year to Bryce Harper.

The offer was put on the table in early September, according to Svrluga, and it doesn’t seem as if it’s likely to be accepted. Rendon is now just weeks away from the open market and appears destined to reach it. He’ll do so armed with the knowledge that the Nats have intense interest in keeping him.

It’s not entirely clear whether the D.C. organization will keep this particular offer on the table once the offseason begins. Neither is it known whether the team is willing to go any higher if that’s needed. Regardless, it’s a nice starting point for Rendon, who has ramped up his already excellent play to higher-than-ever levels in 2019. He’s slated to reach free agency as the top available position player.

And the hot-stove season begins, even before the playoffs do….

 

QLE Posted: October 01, 2019 at 12:13 AM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: anthony rendon, extensions, hot stove, nationals

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: October 01, 2019 at 01:25 AM (#5884834)
That's real money. If correct, it would take him through age 36 (year older than Machado's deal). I'm surprised if he thinks he can easily beat that ... but maybe he's confident the deal will still be on offer for a while.

Of course if it is structured like Scherzer's then it's not really a 7/$210 offer. Scherzer is actually paid out at $15 M per year for 14 years (with no interest). At 5%, 14/$210 is a NPV around $150 M; at 3% it's around $170. That's the equivalent of about 7/189 to 196.

The immediately obvious comp is Arenado. Cots and b-r disagree on this contract so I'll go with Cots. It runs through age 35, covering the last arb year and 7 FA years, making him a year younger than Rendon. The FA years are 7/$234 so quite a bit better than the Rendon offer (and the $26 M first-year arb salary had already been agreed to). Once we adjust for age, the Machado deal is also similar. Of course neither of those help at all in guesstimating his future production, just his possible FA value.

I don't recall the exact criteria (looks like WAR 25-29, 2B/SS/3B list), but earlier this year I seem to have done a comp search and saved it. For ages 30-36, there were 3 excellent outcomes in Edgar, Biggio and Sandberg at 29-33 WAR. Then a group of Alomar, Harrah, Ventura and DaEvans around 21-24 WAR which is about what that 7/$210 is paying for. Then 18 guys at 16 WAR (Matt Williams) or below. That gap between 16 and 21 WAR is huge and fairly rare in these sorts of lists from my experience. If keeps falling pretty fast too such that the median for this group of 25 is David Wright at 9 WAR. Based on this set of comps, you wouldn't offer anything close to 7/$210.

These are far from close comps though. Rendon is a high BA hitter by today's standards but also with good power. The ones that do a reasonable job of meeting both criteria are Tulo (maybe), Williams (maybe), Wright, Ventura, ARam, Hanley and Zimmermann. OK, that list doesn't look so good. A bit short on power are Sandberg, Biggio, John Valentin, Alfonzo and Vidro which is a real hit and miss. Edgar hadn't really found his power yet. Of course having a much better BA and ISO than Harrah and better BA than Evans through age 29 isn't discouraging.

Given how good he's been, it's a pretty scary list. In addition to the guys listed, there are other major flops here -- HoJo, Chavez, Fregosi, Seager.

Ah-ha. Now if I limit things to just the last 3 seasons, we get a much more promising list. That gives us 33 players and the median age 30-36 WAR for this group is around 22-24 WAR, right where it needs to be to justify that salary. Even if we ignore the SS, the list is pretty good. Who knew DeCinces had 21 WAR over these ages? This one picks up guys like Beltre, Nettles, Zobrist, Brett, Cey, Tejada (who moved to 3B eventually), Perez, Bando (24 WAR) before falling off to Matt williams then quickly down. We pick up Nomar and Knoblauch as major flops. Rendon won't get the big defensive WAR boosts that Beltre, Brooks and Nettles got but the notion that Rendon (barring injury) should be as good as Cey, Perez, Bando is totally believable.
   2. Bote Man Posted: October 01, 2019 at 09:11 AM (#5884855)
Rendon is famous for treating baseball as nothing more than his job; he's no lifer. If he can't get a deal to his liking it wouldn't be out of character for him to say "to h3ll with it, I'm retiring from baseball" and just go open a bar on some dirt road near Port Arthur. I doubt that he has time for the Lerners and their predilection for deferring money until baseball is well and truly dead.

If the Astros move Bregman back to SS, then I could see Rendon heading home to the bayous around Houston. I doubt he will wear a Nationals jersey after this season.

What do you make of the remarks that I've read that the leaking of these numbers indicates that negotiations have stalled?
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 01, 2019 at 09:17 AM (#5884857)
If the Astros move Bregman back to SS, then I could see Rendon heading home to the bayous around Houston.

Why would they do that when they have Correa?
   4. Bote Man Posted: October 01, 2019 at 11:03 AM (#5884913)
Correa is reputed to be unhappy in Houston and will exit stage left at his earliest opportunity; I was surprised to learn this, too. Of course, it could just be fan wishcasting for all I know.

Here is Harper Gordek's take on the Rendon situation.

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