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Friday, December 18, 2020

NBA 2020 Season kick-off thread

I estimate it would take 10-12 Primates to beat James Harden in a wing eating contest.

Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: December 18, 2020 at 02:28 PM | 1772 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: best shape of his life, nba, off-topic

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   1101. asinwreck Posted: January 27, 2021 at 08:23 AM (#6002094)
Awful news about Sekou Smith. Just 48.
   1102. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: January 27, 2021 at 08:36 AM (#6002097)
Magic Johnson: This may be living in LakerLand, but I think the businessman thing has faded in memory and he is known some now for his FO incompetence and goofiness on Twitter and on TV. But by "flawed" I meant more "less than competent" than "ethically deficient."

Sure, I can see that. I just don't think he's a bad dude, unlike, for instance, Karl Malone.
   1103. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: January 27, 2021 at 08:42 AM (#6002099)
Recently, it appears that there has been a theme that Andrew Wiggins is figuring things out/playing better with the Warriors. He has been shooting a bit better recently but is this anything more than a good shooting stretch?

Krawczynski (Twolves beat writer at the Athletic) had a piece about him that says he's also doing better on defense. As I haven't watched a game yet this season (because of stupid VPN problems) I can't say. But if he can turn a decrease in usage into an increase in efficiency, and bring more awareness and effort on team defense, he's a useful player. Not a max one, of course, but maybe only overpaid by 20MM/season.
   1104. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: January 27, 2021 at 10:44 AM (#6002136)
New Orleans is reportedly very open to dealing Lonzo, which makes sense since he's an impending RFA having a bad year and never fitting well with Ingram. Seems like his best landing spot would be a team that plays fast, shoots lots of 3s, and has a greater need for ballhandling than finishing/scoring. If Lonzo can focus on getting out in transition, setting up his teammates, and playing active D, maybe he can be successful despite the shooting woes.

I think the Bulls could be a good fit. They desperately need a facilitating ballhandler. They're a young team that tries to generate early offense but don't have anyone with the vision to make it work. Lonzo would also solidify the defense, which currently bleeds points when Zach LaVine and Coby White play together. As for other teams that would be good or interesting, maybe the Warriors? I've seen the Clippers mentioned, but their primary lineups are iso-heavy and play at a slow pace (much like New Orleans). Even though they'd like a bit more ballhandling, I'm skeptical that Lonzo makes sense there.
   1105. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: January 27, 2021 at 11:00 AM (#6002142)
I actually think that Lonzo would have been a perfect fit in Minnesota next to Towns, if they're really going to try and do the 5 out thing. Yeah, he's not the shooter Russell is, but in every other measure he is a superior point guard, would have come significantly cheaper, and would be just as good a timeline fit.
   1106. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 27, 2021 at 11:03 AM (#6002143)
Seems like his best landing spot would be a team that plays fast, shoots lots of 3s, and has a greater need for ballhandling than finishing/scoring. If Lonzo can focus on getting out in transition, setting up his teammates, and playing active D, maybe he can be successful despite the shooting woes


Ball is basically just a slightly less good Ricky Rubio, right? Useful guy in the right system, but never really going to be a game changer. Feels like he will be more valuable in a few years, once he's got a bit of veteran-ness to him.
   1107. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: January 27, 2021 at 11:16 AM (#6002146)
On Wiggins, I saw those articles too and looked at the numbers the other day. Basically, his 3P% is up (small sample) but everything else is the same, including a putrid defensive on/off, which is more damning than ever given that he is being replaced on the floor by a replacement level guy this year.

Same Wiggins, new "best shape of his life" type articles.
   1108. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: January 27, 2021 at 11:41 AM (#6002151)
I think the Bulls could be a good fit. They desperately need a facilitating ballhandler. They're a young team that tries to generate early offense but don't have anyone with the vision to make it work. Lonzo would also solidify the defense, which currently bleeds points when Zach LaVine and Coby White play together. As for other teams that would be good or interesting, maybe the Warriors? I've seen the Clippers mentioned, but their primary lineups are iso-heavy and play at a slow pace (much like New Orleans). Even though they'd like a bit more ballhandling, I'm skeptical that Lonzo makes sense there.

I agree totally about Lonzo in Chicago. What do we think it'll cost to get him? For any of these teams.
   1109. tshipman Posted: January 27, 2021 at 11:48 AM (#6002153)
I agree totally about Lonzo in Chicago. What do we think it'll cost to get him? For any of these teams.


Probably just neutral salary match? So I would guess Oubre for Lonzo straight up would happen for the Warriors. You could probably trade Thad Young or Satoransky for him from the Bulls.
   1110. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 27, 2021 at 11:48 AM (#6002154)
On that possession, Miami had four defenders crowding Embiid in the paint, and one sprinting in from the perimeter for a hard double. None of it meant a damn thing. Rookie center Precious Achiuwa was so concerned with playing honest, hands-free defense that he allowed one of the game’s most confident scorers to slink into a turnaround jumper. The only way to combat Embiid’s physicality is with matching force, which Embiid will exploit to draw a foul. Avoiding the call, however, submits a defender to a positional game they are destined to lose—one in which a bigger, stronger player will mash them into the paint until a basket comes easy. Most of Embiid’s lower-scoring performances this season came against increasingly desperate defenses. No player sees more outright double-teams in the post than Embiid, according to Synergy Sports, less because the strategy is effective than because it’s less certain to fail.

   1111. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 27, 2021 at 12:11 PM (#6002160)
Same Wiggins, new "best shape of his life" type articles.


He will play well against the Wolves, but so what? I am still OK with the trade, though DRuss is who we thought he was. Oh well.

As a Wolves aside, I am rapidly losing faith in Rosas. This means I have little to no faith in the owner, GM, head coach, or most of the players.

So everything is going great!
   1112. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: January 27, 2021 at 12:13 PM (#6002163)
As a Wolves aside, I am rapidly losing faith in Rosas. This means I have little to no faith in the owner, GM, head coach, or most of the players.

This is where I am.
   1113. asinwreck Posted: January 27, 2021 at 12:28 PM (#6002170)
I agree totally about Lonzo in Chicago. What do we think it'll cost to get him? For any of these teams.

From the past couple years, I would guess New Orleans wants draft picks. I'm not really sure how they want to build around Zion and Ingraham, but maybe collecting enough draft picks to bundle for a star....wing, maybe would be the way to go.
   1114. jmurph Posted: January 27, 2021 at 12:33 PM (#6002172)
From the past couple years, I would guess New Orleans wants draft picks. I'm not really sure how they want to build around Zion and Ingraham, but maybe collecting enough draft picks to bundle for a star....wing, maybe would be the way to go.

So De'Andre Hunter might actually be good? That trade was (picks that became) Hunter to Atlanta, Jaxson Hayes and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to New Orleans. Going to be interesting to follow over the next couple years.
   1115. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: January 27, 2021 at 01:52 PM (#6002198)
Hunter seemed like a low-ceiling but solid role-player in the draft. Maybe he's showing a bit more than that. If the Hawks keep Collins, he's not bad as a third-option (even though Hunter is outscoring Collins this year).
   1116. tshipman Posted: January 27, 2021 at 02:02 PM (#6002201)
Hunter has probably really improved, but there's a lot of small sample size making it hard to tell if he's actually good or not.

He's shooting 63% on long two's for example (12/19), which is obviously not going to hold up. He's also hitting an unsustainably high number from floater range (12/21), but he really has improved at the rim, and probably at the FT line.

He looks like a role player who's on a nice little hot streak.

   1117. Powderhorn™, arrogant local sailing champion Posted: January 27, 2021 at 02:53 PM (#6002218)
Krawczynski (Twolves beat writer at the Athletic) had a piece about him that says he's also doing better on defense. As I haven't watched a game yet this season (because of stupid VPN problems) I can't say. But if he can turn a decrease in usage into an increase in efficiency, and bring more awareness and effort on team defense, he's a useful player. Not a max one, of course, but maybe only overpaid by 20MM/season.
In my limited viewing he's looked perfectly fine on defense. His shot selection is awful, and I think his 3-point shooting has mostly been luck. So I like him as long as he doesn't have the ball in his hands.
   1118. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: January 27, 2021 at 02:59 PM (#6002220)
Here is the link to BTF's mock draft of Hunter. He went #5 in our mock.
   1119. Mike A Posted: January 27, 2021 at 03:34 PM (#6002233)
Hunter has really looked quite good this year. I've been surprised by the offense, but at Virginia he was in a defense-first system, so I guess it makes some sense he's made strides in that area. The ability to create his own shot takes some burden off Trae which was really needed.

Admittedly, I thought it was Reddish who would take a step forward this year, but while Cam has regressed, De'Andre has flourished.

RIP Sekou Smith. Always enjoyed reading his Hawks columns. Way too young.
   1120. rr doesn't talk to pawns Posted: January 27, 2021 at 03:46 PM (#6002236)
Not a huge fan of 538's NBA stuff, but FWIW here are their "Chances of winning the NBA Finals" %s as of today:

LAL 31%
LAC 12%
MIL 12%
BOS 11%
BKN 7%
UTA 7%
PHI 6%
DEN 6%

   1121. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 27, 2021 at 07:48 PM (#6002308)
dennis schroder looks like he weighs about 108 lbs.
Kyle Neubeck @KyleNeubeck
my early take is that the Lakers wearing blue in this matchup should be illegal
   1122. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 27, 2021 at 09:20 PM (#6002321)
Joel Embiid really dominated the Lakers frontline in the 1st quarter.
   1123. tshipman Posted: January 27, 2021 at 09:34 PM (#6002323)
Lakers road unis are one of the best NBA jerseys of all time. And then they wear this shitty blue throwback all the time instead. It just sucks.
   1124. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 27, 2021 at 09:40 PM (#6002325)
i really like matisse thybulle.
   1125. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 27, 2021 at 10:04 PM (#6002329)
The Lakers aren't winning this game as they just seem to be fighting it. 4 consecutive missed FTs by LeBron and AD are the nail in the coffin.
   1126. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 27, 2021 at 10:14 PM (#6002331)
Some random thoughts about the Lakers:

Kyle Kuzma's seems to be transforming more of an energy guy rather than significant scoring options. 8.1 points, 8.3 rebounds per game over the last 7 games before tonight and a similar game from him tonight.

Schroder had really been struggling with his shot for a while now but had a nice second half.
   1127. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 27, 2021 at 10:19 PM (#6002332)
The Lakers aren't winning this game as they just seem to be fighting it. 4 consecutive missed FTs by LeBron and AD are the nail in the coffin.
i will never forgive you for this
   1128. PJ Martinez Posted: January 27, 2021 at 10:20 PM (#6002333)
As a Celtics fan, Philly-LA is kind of a nightmare. But as a basketball fan, this is great -- Davis v. Embiid is fun, and so is LeBron v. Simmons.

Edit: And, of course, Harris v. the world.
   1129. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 27, 2021 at 10:24 PM (#6002334)
i will never forgive you for this

Come again?

Tobias Harris saves the day. Stiggles loves it as his biggest fan!

Edit: It would have been an injustice for the Lakers to win that game. They didn't play well at all.

Embiid really played better than Davis. Davis has been weirdly mediocre from the FT% this year. Alex Caruso played well and was a shot of energy. Lakers did not shot well other than LeBron it seems.
   1130. rr doesn't talk to pawns Posted: January 27, 2021 at 10:28 PM (#6002335)
Lakers helped their PYTH and SRS at the end. Good ballgame for fans, as noted.
   1131. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 27, 2021 at 10:29 PM (#6002336)
If Embiid had the endurance of Hakeem, he could have an incredible impact as a post player. The Lakers have two really good post defenders who can play centre against him, two more than most teams have, and he really was dominant in the first quarter.
   1132. asinwreck Posted: January 27, 2021 at 11:16 PM (#6002348)
Why are the Wolves on national television?
   1133. sardonic Posted: January 27, 2021 at 11:21 PM (#6002351)
Who replaced Oubre with a young Kawhi for the night? Absolutely stuffing the stat sheet in the first half with 16 points on 5-5 shooting (4-4 from the line), 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals and 1 block. Curry and Green are a combined 2-12 shooting with 4 points, but somehow are +16 and +13 respectively in a game the Ws are winning by 7.

Wiseman Watch: 3-3 from three and playing well around the rim.
   1134. asinwreck Posted: January 28, 2021 at 08:53 AM (#6002382)
Wiggins seemed pumped up to face his former team.
   1135. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: January 28, 2021 at 10:34 AM (#6002401)
Wasn't funny enough to post twice.
   1136. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: January 28, 2021 at 10:35 AM (#6002402)
Why are the Wolves on national television?
   1137. PJ Martinez Posted: January 28, 2021 at 12:08 PM (#6002433)
Anyone have a sense of what's going on with Miami?
   1138. jmurph Posted: January 28, 2021 at 12:21 PM (#6002437)
Anyone have a sense of what's going on with Miami?

The main thing has to be that Butler has only played 6 games.

But I'd also say A. they downgraded their supporting cast and B. turns out the full 19-20 season is more important in evaluating a team than just the games they played in the bubble.
   1139. spivey 2 Posted: January 28, 2021 at 12:48 PM (#6002448)
I agree with all of 1138. Also looks like they their 3 point shooting has regressed a lot. I think looking at some of their shooters and percentages last year, some of that should be expected.

On top of Butler, Dragic has played limited minutes this year, and is getting older. They don't have much in the way of offense creatione without Butler or Dragic.
   1140. tshipman Posted: January 28, 2021 at 01:17 PM (#6002455)
Miami has declined significantly (about 6 points per 100) on offense.

If we look at four factors:

1. EFG% stayed constant at .547
2. Turnovers went from 13.5% to 16%
3. ORB went from 20.3% to 16.2%
4. FT/FGA went from .234 to .206

So in order, they are turning the ball over more. They were a bad offensive rebounding team, and they turned into the worst in the league. They don't get to the line as much.

A big part of this is actually Bam. He's basically not even bothered getting on the offensive glass. The team is 9% worse on the offensive glass when he's in the game, the worst on the team. He still has a positive effect on TOV%, but with him on the court, the Heat still turn the ball over way too much.

Next is missing Jimmy Butler. Butler's mind meld with the refs peaked in the playoffs, and has dropped off dramatically this year. He's also barely played.

Finally, you have some guys who are just arsonists. Mo Harkless has been awful. Kendrick Nunn lineups have turned the ball over to a crazy degree (19% turnover rate!). Andre Iguodala is having his annual vacation in the regular season.

I think a fair bit of this is bubble hangover and injury bugs, but some of it has been poor offseason moves.
   1141. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 28, 2021 at 05:27 PM (#6002511)
min 150 minutes played, lowest BPM:

Rk               Player Pos Age  Tm  G  MP PER  TSUSG%  WS/48 BPM^
1          Gabe Vincent  PG  24 MIA 10 213 4.1 .432 22.5 -0.090 -9.5
2       Anthony Edwards  SG  19 MIN 17 429 7.9 .452 27.0 
-0.084 -8.2
3          Theo Maledon  PG  19 OKC 17 348 5.9 .466 18.1 
-0.042 -7.5
4            Mike Scott  PF  32 PHI  8 153 4.2 .430 13.3 
-0.005 -7.1
5       Jaden McDaniels  PF  20 MIN 11 159 7.1 .440 17.0 
-0.020 -6.8
6           Rodney Hood  SF  28 POR 13 196 5.6 .408 14.7 
-0.057 -6.5
7       Jerome Robinson  SG  23 WAS  9 177 6.9 .488 15.0 
-0.005 -6.5
8            Josh Green  SG  20 DAL 15 198 5.2 .468 10.7   .000 
-6.4
9          Dwayne Bacon  SG  25 ORL 19 450 8.2 .475 19.0   .007 
-6.3
10   Aleksej Pokusevski  PF  19 OKC 15 260 3.3 .313 17.5 
-0.126 -6.1 

   1142. sardonic Posted: January 29, 2021 at 10:06 AM (#6002588)
I would mortgage the Warriors future to get Beal. It's a no brainer to me, so it's probably not a fair deal. Feels like another team could make a better offer than Wiseman, Oubre's salary, Minnesota's pick next year (protected 1-3, unprotected in 22) and additional first round picks and swaps in the future.

Curry-Beal-Wiggins-Draymond feels like a souped up version of the Blazers that would be underdogs to the Lakers and Clippers (and maybe the Jazz) in the West but would have a puncher's chance.

Curry-Klay-Beal-Wiggins-Draymond feels like a title contender if everyone can stay healthy (and Lebron has to get old at some point, right?)
   1143. jmurph Posted: January 29, 2021 at 10:51 AM (#6002607)
How would it work with salaries, though? Wiseman/Oubre/their pick/the Wolves pick and some other salary?

I think that's a fascinating trade. I think that might be fair actually. Wiseman/the Wolves pick would both be better assets than anything moved recently for a star (off the top of my head, I might be forgetting something obvious), which would theoretically mean the Warriors wouldn't have to give up as many future picks. I don't know.

I like Wiseman for Golden State, though, I'm not sure I'd be eager to move him.

EDIT: The trade machine actually says that works financially with just Wiseman/Oubre.
   1144. Powderhorn™, arrogant local sailing champion Posted: January 29, 2021 at 12:21 PM (#6002633)
I rarely like "mortgage the future" trades unless the return is some Anthony Davis-esque unicorn. I don't know much about Beal. How is his defense?

I don't see any one guy who might be available as capable of making the Warriors a title contender this year. With that outlook I'd much prefer they give Wiseman a full look this year, see what value they think he might develop, and then think about making moves.
   1145. tshipman Posted: January 29, 2021 at 12:56 PM (#6002639)
I rarely like "mortgage the future" trades unless the return is some Anthony Davis-esque unicorn.


Yup.

Bradley Beal is a nice player, but not the difference that takes a team that is scrapping for the play in game to being a contender.
   1146. Fourth True Outcome Posted: January 29, 2021 at 01:52 PM (#6002647)
I'm also a touch more skeptical than that article seems to be about the prospect of a Curry/Beal/Klay/Draymond core next year. That seems like it would be asking Draymond to almost single-handedly be the defense while ensuring they'd be at a size disadvantage on the perimeter.
   1147. asinwreck Posted: January 29, 2021 at 02:00 PM (#6002649)
The Warriors cratering in 2019-2021 isn't the worst business decision in the world. Their shiny new home doesn't have fans in it regardless of their record, and that's not likely to change until at least the start of next season. By then, Wiseman will have a year of development, and they'll have either one or two lottery picks in a strong draft.

The draft is a gamble, but it's not hard to see a 2021-22 season where the Curry-Thompson-Wiggins-Green-Wiseman lineup leads them back to a deep postseason run with something like Jonathan Kuminga and James Bouknight on the bench. If I'm a Warriors' fan, I like the near- and long-term outlooks of that team.
   1148. jmurph Posted: January 29, 2021 at 02:23 PM (#6002653)
I do think it's tricky, because you clearly don't want to ride out the remainder of Curry's prime in the back half of the playoff picture while you're paying Curry/Klay/Draymond a mountain of money (they have $100 million committed to Klay/Draymond/Wiggins in the 22-23 season- note that doesn't include a new deal for Curry).
   1149. Harlond Posted: January 29, 2021 at 02:26 PM (#6002655)
Here is the link to BTF's mock draft of Hunter. He went #5 in our mock.
I picked him, but also I went to UVA when Ralph was there, had season tickets until Pete Gillen screwed it up, and am a big Wahoo fan. OTOH, really hard-working, high-character, team-oriented, somewhat older draftees are an NBA market inefficiency.
   1150. tshipman Posted: January 29, 2021 at 02:36 PM (#6002665)
I think that:

1. Assuming Klay is going to come back at 100% next year is foolish.
2. Even with Beal, everyone is injury prone and a year older.
3. You're going to struggle on defense.
4. The recent Harden deal is going to make Washington ask for too much to make it worthwhile.

The best path for the Warriors is Wiseman turning out to be a star, and them adding something good with the Minnesota pick. I'm not sure if Wiseman becoming a star is *likely*, but it is possible, and he seems likely to be a starter quality player.
   1151. asinwreck Posted: January 29, 2021 at 02:38 PM (#6002666)
It would be interesting to see what the Warriors would do if Jerry West was still involved in the front office. Almost 40 years ago, he had a core of Kareem and Magic, James Worthy had just finished his rookie season, and West decided to trade 28-year-old Norm Nixon for the draft rights to Byron Scott. The young players made Kareem's golden years very successful.

Can Wiseman and the 2021 draft provide similar benefits for the aging core? It's a gamble, but one with a higher ceiling than plugging Beal (or any other available veteran) in during a year of sunk costs.
   1152. Laser Man Posted: January 29, 2021 at 02:47 PM (#6002669)
We're a quarter way through the season, and the Hawks are 11th in Net Rating, 11th in Defensive Rating (109.0), and 11th in Offensive Rating (110.9). That's a huge step up from their ranks of 28th Net, 28th DefRtg (114.4) and 25th in OffRtg in the 2019-20 season.

While they did spend a lot in free agency, because of injuries they have gotten almost nothing from Gallo, Bogdan, Rondo, and Kris Dunn, or 1st round pick Okongwu. The improvement has mainly been the returning young players playing much better, especially Hunter and Collins, plus the addition of Clint Capela late last season. The schedule has been pretty favorable so far, but with most of the injured players returning soon, it seems like the Hawks have a chance to move from one of the league's worst to a Top 15 team in one season.
   1153. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 29, 2021 at 03:07 PM (#6002679)
   1154. tshipman Posted: January 29, 2021 at 03:10 PM (#6002683)
Hawks are 2nd in the NBA in opponent 3p% at 32.4%.

If their opponents had shot a league average rate, they would be about 3.8 points worse on defense, which would put them at about 26th on defense.

Edit: PS: The Celtics are 13th at 36.2%, so I guess Brad's eyes are less blue these days.
   1155. jmurph Posted: January 29, 2021 at 03:19 PM (#6002688)
Eh it's early, don't worry, 1st again last year (and in the playoffs), the wild coincidence continues!

EDIT: Oh no they slipped to 2nd by a hair in the regular season last year! Apologies all around.
   1156. jmurph Posted: January 29, 2021 at 03:33 PM (#6002701)
Where's the Trae Young conversation these days? I continue to find it odd that he's still not actually an elite (%) shooter.
   1157. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 29, 2021 at 03:51 PM (#6002716)
Where's the Trae Young conversation these days? I continue to find it odd that he's still not actually an elite (%) shooter.
defenses have to respect his shot out to 30+ feet, but his best skill has never been his shot. he's always been at his best when he uses his shot as a threat out of a spread pick and roll, getting into the heart of a defense, and setting up his teammates.
   1158. Laser Man Posted: January 29, 2021 at 04:03 PM (#6002721)
Yeah, Trae Young has had a rough shooting year so far. His 3PT% is still around 35%, but his percentages in the lane are way down this year - 34% from 3-10 ft and 33% from 10-16 ft, after being in the mid-40s on both last year. It could just be bad luck, or due to some nagging wrist/back injuries, or just a more crowded lane with Capela and his defender in there more often. He does seem to be more active and trying harder on defense, but his shooting has not been the reason for the team's offensive improvement (except for his free throws).
   1159. Mike A Posted: January 29, 2021 at 05:05 PM (#6002747)
I think the Hawk defense has certainly improved. By most stats, Capela has been a top 5 defender in the middle. That's allowed Collins to play out on his man more often and has improved his defensive numbers. Hunter is a solid defender, Cam is alright. The elephant in the room is of course Trae, who is trying harder on defense but is still a pretty big liability. But the other Hawks have helped out more this year.

I would say the only other bad Hawk defender is Huerter, and I don't really like when he and Trae are on the court at the same time.

As a side, I was going through DRPM and noticed that Giannis and Ben Simmons were near the bottom of the league. I would guess that's just small sample size weirdness, but is there anything else there?
   1160. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: January 29, 2021 at 05:06 PM (#6002748)
I’m not sure how good he is at basketball, but I know he is good at describing how hard basketball is.

I came in here to post this. It is really delightful.
   1161. tshipman Posted: January 29, 2021 at 05:31 PM (#6002754)
I think the Hawk defense has certainly improved. By most stats, Capela has been a top 5 defender in the middle. That's allowed Collins to play out on his man more often and has improved his defensive numbers. Hunter is a solid defender, Cam is alright. The elephant in the room is of course Trae, who is trying harder on defense but is still a pretty big liability. But the other Hawks have helped out more this year.

I would say the only other bad Hawk defender is Huerter, and I don't really like when he and Trae are on the court at the same time.


The Hawks aren't a good defense, though. They're mediocre by every metric (26th in TOV%, 23rd in DRB%, 15th in FT/FGA and 16th in 2p%FGA) EXCEPT opponent 3p%.

I don't know why we have to keep having this conversation.
   1162. rr doesn't talk to pawns Posted: January 29, 2021 at 05:34 PM (#6002756)
Interesting convo on GSW. I am ofc all about "teh supahstarzz" but I agree with Powderhorn in 1144, and I like Bradley Beal's game, in that I generally like guys who can score. I think that moving Wiseman would probably be a mistake.

The Lakers have lost two in a row and now go to Boston; I will be interested to see how they do. Boston is a pretty tough matchup for them. As a narrative aside, I suspect that Boston games mean more to the fanbase than they do to the players on the Lakers' current roster and coaching staff, although I suspect that James likes beating Boston due to his history with them in Cleveland and Miami.

   1163. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 29, 2021 at 05:38 PM (#6002757)
As a side, I was going through DRPM and noticed that Giannis and Ben Simmons were near the bottom of the league. I would guess that's just small sample size weirdness, but is there anything else there?
last year, ben simmons DRPM was -0.85; tobias harris's was +3.02.

i suspect DRPM is doing the same thing to giannis this year. the reason why this happens is that it's a poorly constructed statistic that doesn't competently account for weirdo lineup constructions that feature significant cross-matching.
   1164. Mike A Posted: January 29, 2021 at 06:09 PM (#6002762)
Thanks. I'm trying to learn more about the vagarity of defensive stats. I suspect they're a lot like baseball defensive stats, they give us a broad idea but true quantification is difficult.

As for the Hawks, I never said they were a good defensive team, but I've seen improvement. Capela has rounded into form after his injury, particularly the last couple of weeks. Hunter and Cam are 2nd year players who should continue to get better. Okongwu should see more playing time as the year goes on. I think there's upside.

I feel the Hawks needed to surround Trae with decent defenders, and they've kinda done that. Maybe it hasn't translated completely into the stats yet, but I'm optimistic it eventually will.
   1165. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: January 29, 2021 at 08:00 PM (#6002776)
Just a thought exercise: what could the wolves get for Towns?
   1166. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 29, 2021 at 08:07 PM (#6002778)
Just a thought exercise: what could the wolves get for Towns?
julius randle, nerlens noel, frank nitaliankeno, kevin knox
   1167. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: January 29, 2021 at 08:23 PM (#6002779)
I guess a more trenchant question is, what couldn't they get?
   1168. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 29, 2021 at 08:26 PM (#6002781)
we lost john chaney
And, of course, he threatened to kill John Calipari. In 1994, no. 8 Temple lost a buzzer-beater to no. 13 UMass on national television. It was barely a basketball game, resembling more of a fistfight. Chaney took exception when he saw Calipari briefly talking to an official as he exited the Minutemen locker room before the postgame press conference. Chaney couldn’t stand a competitive edge. He quit the Harlem Globetrotters because the games were rigged. Chaney wasn’t afraid of danger or consequence. He once tackled a school shooter while he was teaching teenagers. Calipari, an upstart coach at the time, was going to learn the game, even if Chaney had to give the lesson himself.

...Calipari tried to defend himself, but it didn’t matter what he was saying. You listen when Chaney talks. “Shut up, goddammit!” Chaney spat back. “I’ll kill you! You remember that. When I see you, I’ll kick your ass. Kick your ass! You’ve got a good team and you don’t need that edge. That’s why I told my kid to knock your ####### kid in the mouth!”

   1169. spivey 2 Posted: January 29, 2021 at 08:31 PM (#6002782)
I've only watched about 4 full games worth of Milwaukee, but between my observations and their stats, a few things stick out to me as I watch them get throttled by the Pelicans.

1. Their role players are generally much more capable of shooting and even creating for themselves a bit, which is great.
2. DiVincenzo continues to look like a good starting quality SG. He's not an allstar, but he's not going to cost you games. You can trust him in crunch time, imo.
3. I'm continuing to worry about DJ Augustin. He gets picked up full court a lot, his size really limits him on defense, and his ability to finish inside the 3 point line is just absolutely gone. He's shooting 28% on 2pa this year, which is absurd.
4. Giannis isn't playing like anything approaching the MVP. He was never a good passer, and it's gotten worse. His assist rate is down despite having much better shooters (or at least shooting, at this point into the year) around him, and his turnover rate is up. He almost never passes it into the pocket of the shooter, often throws it way too hard or a few feet away their their center of mass. More teams also seem to be putting centers, even not quick ones like Adams, on him, which is limiting him from bulldozing his way to the basket. Obviously the free throw shooting is a concern too. His on/off is just positive.

The SRS and MOV is still strong, but #4 is deeply worrying to me. If he can't win his one-on-one matchup offensively, he mucks up the offense as much as he helps it.
   1170. spivey 2 Posted: January 29, 2021 at 08:37 PM (#6002786)
I guess a more trenchant question is, what couldn't they get?


IMO, plenty. I think there is a lot of rightful skepticism of Towns. This is a wing's NBA. I don't think Milwaukee would trade Middleton for Towns, just to give an example I'm close to. Building around a poor defending big is difficult, especially in a one-big NBA.

Towns isn't that young anymore. He's 25. Which means he has a lot of his prime yet, but if he was gonna figure out how to not suck at defense, I think we'd have seen it by now.
   1171. asinwreck Posted: January 29, 2021 at 08:50 PM (#6002790)
Towns isn't leaving before Taylor leaves. If and when Taylor sells, who knows what the new owner will do?

Related, which team has the worst ownership situation in the NBA? Would you rather have Taylor, Tilman Fertitta, or Vivek Ranadivé owning your team?
   1172. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 29, 2021 at 08:57 PM (#6002791)
Towns isn't leaving before Taylor leaves. If and when Taylor sells, who knows what the new owner will do?

Related, which team has the worst ownership situation in the NBA? Would you rather have Taylor, Tilman Fertitta, or Vivek Ranadivé owning your team?
taylor. by a mile. he lets the people he hires do the job he hires them to do; he just tends to hire shitty people (for their jobs).

then fertito, just because he's leveraged to such an extent that there's a chance he'll go bankrupt and have to sell.

vivek...i don't think there's any cure for what he is.
   1173. tshipman Posted: January 29, 2021 at 09:00 PM (#6002792)
Related, which team has the worst ownership situation in the NBA? Would you rather have Taylor, Tilman Fertitta, or Vivek Ranadivé owning your team?


Probably Vivek, because at least he's not cheap, just sort of silly? His worst mistake was hiring a franchise icon as a GM. Everything else has been sort of fine.

IMO, plenty. I think there is a lot of rightful skepticism of Towns. This is a wing's NBA. I don't think Milwaukee would trade Middleton for Towns, just to give an example I'm close to. Building around a poor defending big is difficult, especially in a one-big NBA.


I wouldn't have done the James Harden package for James Harden, so I don't think that Towns would get that, but maybe he would?

It's really hard to figure out who would do a Towns deal. The Warriors would kind of be the best fit for him, I guess? The Wolves could get Wiseman and their own pick back (lol).

The challenge with Towns is that you need someone who can cover for him on defense to win a championship. And the big man can't be high usage, because that detracts from Towns' value.

The Pacers would be an interesting target, since he's basically a better version of Sabonis? He'd also be a better version of Brook Lopez on the Bucks.

It's really hard to find a team that wants to contend that has a defense first, low usage big that can play alongside Towns. I think that limits his market as I understand it.
   1174. asinwreck Posted: January 29, 2021 at 09:09 PM (#6002793)
The Athletic ran a poll amongst NBA insiders on this question last fall, and Vivek edged Robert Sarver out in a closely contested vote.
“Talk about a chaotic organization,” one agent said.

“He seems like he’s trying too much to be Jerry Jones,” said one front office exec.

“His intentions are good but in terms of hiring the basketball people and letting them do their work, he both hires bad basketball people and doesn’t let them do their work,” an executive said. “That’s a bad combination.”

Vivek saved the team for Sacramento, so he has that going for him. Sarver seems to have a solid coach in place for the Suns' young core and we'll see how the Chris Paul trade sets the team up long-term. James Dolan placed third, and I rate him highly in both being willing to spend freely and comic incompetence.

Taylor has now owned the Wolves for more than a quarter of a century. I would read an exhaustive history of this reign, especially if it devoted at least 70 pages to the Joe Smith saga.
   1175. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 29, 2021 at 09:31 PM (#6002795)
It's really hard to find a team that wants to contend that has a defense first, low usage big that can play alongside Towns. I think that limits his market as I understand it.
boston. atlanta. portland. san antonio. OKC. dallas. memphis. toronto.

any of those teams could make towns fit without much effort.
   1176. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: January 29, 2021 at 09:40 PM (#6002796)
God the Joe Smith thing. I was shooting hoops in North Minneapolis with my friends Sam and Brett when that went wide. Jesus.
   1177. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: January 29, 2021 at 09:41 PM (#6002797)
And all for Joe Smith! Joe Smith!
   1178. asinwreck Posted: January 29, 2021 at 09:42 PM (#6002798)
He was a 1-1 pick, after all.
   1179. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 29, 2021 at 09:46 PM (#6002799)
i wasn't the biggest fan of the seth curry trade, but i'll give him this: when he is wide open, he makes the ####### shot.

he's not jodie meeks.
   1180. tshipman Posted: January 29, 2021 at 09:55 PM (#6002801)
boston. atlanta. portland. san antonio. OKC. dallas. memphis. toronto.

any of those teams could make towns fit without much effort.


Boston - maybe? It won't happen, but it's an interesting hypothetical.
Atlanta - no, this doesn't work. You can't put Trae and KAT on the same team and try to contend.
Portland - same issue as Atlanta, but Dame is a bit better.
San Antonio - maybe! San Antonio is kind of a cypher and they never deal draft picks.
OKC - maybe to sort of! Horford is too old, but maybe you can find someone who fits after you get KAT.
Dallas - This doesn't work. You'd have to trade Porzingis, and I think the Zinger is a better fit next to Luka.
Memphis - I like this one. JJJ is a good pair with KAT.
Toronto - This would be a bet on Nick Nurse, so I like it.

You didn't mention, but also maybe relevant: Miami.
   1181. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 29, 2021 at 10:14 PM (#6002804)
Atlanta - no, this doesn't work. You can't put Trae and KAT on the same team and try to contend.
Portland - same issue as Atlanta, but Dame is a bit better.
i think both teams could dream on it, and that can be reason enough to make something happen.
Dallas - This doesn't work. You'd have to trade Porzingis, and I think the Zinger is a better fit next to Luka.
porzingis isn't good; towns is.
You didn't mention, but also maybe relevant: Miami.
towns does not feel like a riley guy, but the beginning to this season might get them to panic.
   1182. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: January 29, 2021 at 11:25 PM (#6002813)
tship, I don't necessarily disagree but you're answering the question of who should trade a lot for Towns, not who would. I suspect Towns' trade value is very high, especially after the Lakers won by acquiring a superficially similar player in AD (obviously a big defensive gap, hence superficially, but both are mobile, "modern" big men).

Actually, the T'Wolves vision of pairing Russell with Towns is a good example of what people like to dream on, even though the defensive issues are, uhhh, enormous. People don't dream on defense, they dream on offense, and the idea of pairing Towns with someone like Lillard, Sexton, Westbrook, or Fox *feels* attractive.
   1183. sardonic Posted: January 30, 2021 at 12:42 AM (#6002829)
I guess I'm just higher on Beal than the rest of y'all. I actually think the Towns discussion highlights this -- Towns is probably a 90th percentile outcome for Wiseman? Something like a D'Angelo Russell wouldn't be a particularly bad outcome for say the #4 pick next year (could always be a D'Andre Hunter...). Beal is still 27 and actually a legit All Star/max type player at least.
   1184. NJ in NJ Posted: January 30, 2021 at 09:58 AM (#6002847)
[1182] The gap between Towns and Davis on defense is so massive that I don’t even know where to start with the idea that what Davis did last year should be indicative of anything Towns related. And I say that as someone has consistently been low on Davis.
   1185. Powderhorn™, arrogant local sailing champion Posted: January 30, 2021 at 11:49 AM (#6002859)
The Beal discussion makes me think about the Nets. I'm very, very curious to see what playoff mismatch-hunting will look like against Harden and Irving. With the firepower he now has surrounding him Harden should be able to give more effort on D. Right now I don't know what I think about an all-offense backcourt. They're an interesting test case.

(Between that and my existence as the wold's biggest Mikal Bridges stan, I can't wait to see Suns-Nets in a couple of weeks.)
   1186. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 30, 2021 at 12:33 PM (#6002862)
It is sadly irrelevant what Towns would fetch, in terms of the Wolves, because until ownership is gone (he was supposedly selling the TEAM! For months now) nothing will fix the team.

I don't know exactly what is wrong, the how or why, but at this point, there is more than enough data that it is an ownership issue. Fix that, and then you might be able to fix the rest.

I think Towns has more upside left. He showed some flashes of actual defense, but of course, it was a really small sample. But again, until they get a new owner, new GM, and new head coach it won't matter. Which is so infuriating and depressing.
   1187. puck Posted: January 30, 2021 at 01:49 PM (#6002874)
On Wiggins, I saw those articles too and looked at the numbers the other day. Basically, his 3P% is up (small sample) but everything else is the same, including a putrid defensive on/off, which is more damning than ever given that he is being replaced on the floor by a replacement level guy this year.

Same Wiggins, new "best shape of his life" type articles.


Wiggins is on Hollinger's All Surprise team (Athletic article). In addition to the 3 point shooting, Hollinger notes:

The central improvement by Wiggins has been his sudden zeal for shot blocking, something that wasn’t ever in his bag previously. He’s sent back 4.5 percent of opponent shots this season, far and away the best figure among non-centers and good enough for 17th overall in the league.
   1188. PJ Martinez Posted: January 30, 2021 at 04:22 PM (#6002894)
I'd forgotten how good some of these dunks were.
   1189. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: January 30, 2021 at 07:11 PM (#6002934)
And Wiggins' steal rate, which is twice as important, is at an all-time low.
   1190. tshipman Posted: January 30, 2021 at 10:10 PM (#6002953)
Wiggins has the same problem a lot of Warriors have in +/-. He shares a lot of minutes with Oubre, who has been awful.

With Wiggins on, and Oubre off, the Warriors are +0.9/100 possessions. He's been pretty good this year.

I don't really get why Kerr is giving Oubre so much rope.
   1191. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 30, 2021 at 10:52 PM (#6002959)
That was a really poor finish of the game by the Lakers although they played well in the 4th overall.
   1192. sardonic Posted: January 30, 2021 at 10:55 PM (#6002960)
I don't really get why Kerr is giving Oubre so much rope.


Obviously showcasing him as a piece in the Beal trade, of course.

According to beat writers he claims it's because Oubre's defense is a part of the identity they want to build, and that the offense will catch up, etc. To some extent they're probably also just trying to find out what they have given that he's relatively young, and they'll want to figure out how much they want to use Bird Rights to bring him back next year.
   1193. rr doesn't talk to pawns Posted: January 30, 2021 at 11:09 PM (#6002962)
This trip sort of confirms for me that the Lakers will likely have a much more challenging time of it in postseason this year.
   1194. rr doesn't talk to pawns Posted: January 30, 2021 at 11:26 PM (#6002965)
Liked that the Lakers wore purple and Boston wore white.

#getoffmylawn
   1195. rr doesn't talk to pawns Posted: January 30, 2021 at 11:26 PM (#6002966)
Liked that the Lakers wore purple and Boston wore white.

#getoffmylawn
   1196. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 30, 2021 at 11:30 PM (#6002967)
The Celtics and Clippers are similar in that they have two elite wing players. The Celtics are a tough matchup for the Laker as are the Lakers. Also, LBJ settled for a lot of threes today. That's not how he'd likely play against the Celtics in the playoffs.
   1197. rr doesn't talk to pawns Posted: January 31, 2021 at 02:43 AM (#6002981)
Appropos that my old man post was a double. Having trouble loading last page of threads on Chrome.
   1198. asinwreck Posted: January 31, 2021 at 09:52 AM (#6002986)
Those "Boston Celtics" jerseys look like knockoffs sold at the Dollar Store. The Pelicans' fleur-de-lis jerseys should be their regular uniforms.
   1199. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: January 31, 2021 at 02:48 PM (#6003015)
So Dame has one of those nights last night. Just insane shot making. LaVine has developed a real turnover problem.
   1200. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 31, 2021 at 04:11 PM (#6003027)
Oleh Kosel @OlehKosel
Stan Van Gundy says that since the guards played so well yesterday, JJ Redick didn't get into the rotation again. By the time, things went south, SVG didn't want to throw him out there at that point.
Jake Madison @NOLAJake
With the Pelicans and trades a deal usually happens right after an abundance of smoke. Have to figure Redick is gone very soon
Jon Johnson @jonjohnsonwip
Joel Embiid endorses bringing back JJ Redick. Make it happen.

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