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Friday, December 18, 2020

NBA 2020 Season kick-off thread

I estimate it would take 10-12 Primates to beat James Harden in a wing eating contest.

Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: December 18, 2020 at 02:28 PM | 3341 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: best shape of his life, nba, off-topic

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   2401. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: March 26, 2021 at 05:16 PM (#6010321)
Hornets traded Chris Paul for Eric Gordon, a first round pick, and a bunch of other crap. That first round pick ended up being #1 and being AD, but that wasn't a guarantee (unless the draft is rigged).

If memory serves (not guaranteed), the Hornets got Davis with their own original first rounder, not the traded one.
   2402. aberg Posted: March 26, 2021 at 05:19 PM (#6010322)
They drafted Austin Rivers with the pick they got in that trade. Not sure why I remember that.

Did you guys see that all 3 NBA players named Gary got traded yesterday? That was definitely the big news.
   2403. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: March 26, 2021 at 05:31 PM (#6010324)
The only trade that moved the need in any way for a team even close to title contention was Denver getting Gordon (IMO).

the sixers getting george hill isn't sexy, but it does more than meets the eye. he does the 3+D thing, which is always nice, and he's also a reliable ballhandler late in games, and believe it or not: that has been a glaring weakness for the sixers over the last 5-ish years.

embiid and simmons now have a supporting cast that includes tharris, danny green, george hill, seth curry and dwight howard (and maybe mike scott, i guess), which gives them as much competent veteranosity as any other team in the league.


i know a lot of people are out on the embiid/simmons pairing, but the history of the NBA is full of teams and players that couldn't get over the hump...until they did. if embiid and simmons can carry the load, the rest of the team is championship caliber.
   2404. tshipman Posted: March 26, 2021 at 05:45 PM (#6010328)
I don't trust George Hill, and I think he's a bit of a dog. If it were, Heorge Gill, a different guy with the same stats, I'd like the deal better.

***

I think the Nets are pretty badly overrated by Vegas. They don't really play defense, Durant isn't healthy, and they have a rookie coach.
   2405. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: March 26, 2021 at 08:33 PM (#6010345)
as a Bucks fan I love George Hill and am annoyed that the 6ers got him.

Tacko is getting some minutes against Brook Lopez tonight. First time seeing Nesmith this year too.
   2406. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: March 26, 2021 at 08:35 PM (#6010346)
also Giannis sat out Monday with a knee sprain and doesn't look 100%. Settling for a lot of jumpers, none of which he's making. although as I was typing this he demolished Tacko on a dunk.
   2407. asinwreck Posted: March 26, 2021 at 09:18 PM (#6010350)
Blake dunked again.
   2408. spivey 2 Posted: March 26, 2021 at 09:30 PM (#6010352)
Nets are flakey. I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting on any of the favorites with those odds.

Nets have the most talent but injuries, defense, and how they handle adversity and a more physical playoff defense will be interesting.

Celtics making a ton of jumpers tonight
   2409. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: March 26, 2021 at 09:35 PM (#6010353)
I don't trust George Hill, and I think he's a bit of a dog. If it were, Heorge Gill, a different guy with the same stats, I'd like the deal better.
he's been the starting PG on a lot of teams that have won a lot of playoff series. now, while he wasn't the main reason those teams were good enough to win those series, he was always a strong contributor and a glue guy on both ends of the floor. like a piss-soaked rug, he really tied the room together.
   2410. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: March 26, 2021 at 09:37 PM (#6010354)
anyone know if olynyk is getting bought out?

between his chippyness and 3P shooting, i think he'd be the sixers' best option if he makes it to the buyout market.
   2411. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: March 26, 2021 at 09:42 PM (#6010356)
Celtics making a ton of jumpers tonight

Marcus Smart is 7/9 from 3 tonight. That tells you all you need to know about how this one has gone.
   2412. asinwreck Posted: March 26, 2021 at 09:47 PM (#6010357)
Nets engaging in Hack-a-Plumlee, getting the desired effect.
   2413. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: March 27, 2021 at 02:08 AM (#6010382)
Title odds: BKN and LAL are where the betting action would be, so it makes sense on that level. On the floor, though, I don't see those teams as big favorites, due largely to the injury concerns. It seems unlikely to me that all the big dogs will be healthy for both of those teams. I think people in general are sleeping a little bit on the Clippers. I will be rooting against them, ofc, but I think they can win it.

Fans partial to the competitive ecology of no great teams but several very good teams having a shot should like where the league is right now, and there is a mix of big and small markets, which I think is probably good for the league as a commercial product. All the NBA needs is some fans in the buildings. If you think that Gordon moves Denver up, there are eight teams that could realistically be in the Finals, because I think if Denver is a contender, then Phoenix is, too. There are 5 from the West, and three from the East.

Denver: They are 4th in ORTG, but 19th in DRTG, with a 28-16 PYTH. I get the synergistic appeal of Gordon, so I will be watching their D numbers.
   2414. asinwreck Posted: March 27, 2021 at 05:59 PM (#6010437)
@ShamsCharania
LaMarcus Aldridge will sign a one-year, veteran’s minimum deal with the Brooklyn Nets, sources tell @TheAthletic @Stadium.

@wojespn
Aldridge is expected to see a significant amount of his minutes at center for the Nets.
   2415. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: March 27, 2021 at 06:09 PM (#6010438)
so, shams' sources are agents; woj's are teams/league office.
   2416. tshipman Posted: March 27, 2021 at 06:23 PM (#6010440)
LMA going to Brooklyn is a whoa moment.
   2417. asinwreck Posted: March 27, 2021 at 06:23 PM (#6010441)
Woj talks with agents.
Free-agent veteran LaMarcus Aldridge will sign with the Brooklyn Nets, agent Jeff Schwartz told ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski on Saturday.
   2418. KronicFatigue Posted: March 27, 2021 at 06:51 PM (#6010444)
I was looking forward to rooting against the big-3 Nets. Adding LMA seems like I'm screwed.
   2419. spivey 2 Posted: March 27, 2021 at 07:20 PM (#6010449)
They aren’t sexy names but I feel like Dieng and Dedmon are way better than Aldridge at this point in his career, and better at the parts of the game that matter most to a team like the Nets. Wouldn’t mind the Bucks getting one of them.
   2420. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: March 27, 2021 at 08:14 PM (#6010453)
I hope nobody but myself had to watch the 4th quarter of the Wolves/Rockets game last night. It was ... it was shockingly horrible unbasketball.
   2421. NJ in NJ Posted: March 27, 2021 at 08:32 PM (#6010456)
Sidenote on podcasts, Tim Bontemps drives me nuts. He is basically always the least insightful member of whichever discussion he's involved in, yet talks over everyone and sucks up all the airtime. It's super annoying.

I love Bontemps as a pod guest. Really enjoy that he pulls no punches and you know exactly where he stands on various players/teams/orgs. Too many reporters get on podcasts and spend their entire time trying not to make a headline or offend a player/team. Bontemps and McMahon are the opposite of that and I love it. I don't take any of their analysis seriously though because, I mean, come on.
   2422. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: March 27, 2021 at 08:48 PM (#6010459)
Adrian Wojnarowski
@wojespn
·
1h
LA's stars have been recruiting Drummond hard, and Lakers' situation offers him a chance to step into the starting lineup at center. Drummond is progressing toward finalizing that decision soon, sources said.

The Lakers have emerged as a strong frontrunner to sign free agent center Andre Drummond, sources tell ESPN.
   2423. PJ Martinez Posted: March 27, 2021 at 09:02 PM (#6010461)
Makes way more sense than the weird Boston rumblings. Why would he come to the Celtics to compete with Tristan Thompson to be Robert Williams's backup?

Never been a huge fan of Aldridge's game, and he doesn't seem to address Brooklyn's main weaknesses (which are all on defense), but if nothing else he's another scorer off the bench, plus he can stand where Durant is supposed to be whenever Durant is out.
   2424. PJ Martinez Posted: March 27, 2021 at 10:04 PM (#6010469)
Someone named Moses Brown has put up 17 points and 19 rebounds against Boston... in the first half.

Also, for the "Now that's what I call variance" files, the Celtics are 3-20 from three after going 22-47 last night.
   2425. tshipman Posted: March 27, 2021 at 10:30 PM (#6010471)
Makes way more sense than the weird Boston rumblings. Why would he come to the Celtics to compete with Tristan Thompson to be Robert Williams's backup?


Someone named Moses Brown has put up 17 points and 19 rebounds against Boston... in the first half.


Question and answer, separated by just over an hour.
   2426. PJ Martinez Posted: March 27, 2021 at 10:39 PM (#6010472)
I mean, the question was more about why Drummond would want to come to Boston than why Boston would want him. Would he grab more boards than Robert Williams? Sure. Do I think that would lead to many more Boston wins? Not really. Do I want him taking minutes from the young player the Celtics need to develop during a season when their upside is *maybe* fourth place in a three-team conference? No. And why would Drummond want that? I assume he will sign with LeBron's team and hope to win a ring.
   2427. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: March 28, 2021 at 12:09 AM (#6010474)
and the dwightmare is gone again
   2428. asinwreck Posted: March 28, 2021 at 09:34 AM (#6010477)
The Nets have one more open roster space. What will they do with it?
   2429. asinwreck Posted: March 28, 2021 at 11:49 AM (#6010481)
@ShamsCharania
The Spurs are releasing Marquese Chriss to create roster space for center Gorgui Dieng, sources tell @TheAthletic@Stadium.

I'm a little surprised Dieng didn't sign with one of the contenders in the East.
   2430. asinwreck Posted: March 28, 2021 at 01:52 PM (#6010487)
@wojespn
Once Andre Drummond clears waivers at 5 PM ET, he intends to sign with the Lakers, his agent Jeff Schwartz of @excelbasketball tells ESPN.
   2431. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: March 28, 2021 at 05:04 PM (#6010501)
I'm all right with that. Without Lebron and Davis, the Lakers need stuff.
   2432. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: March 28, 2021 at 07:03 PM (#6010508)
Drummond will help a little while they deal with with trying to scavenge a few wins without James and Davis (they are catching Orlando at the right time, obviously), and it is a good "star service" signing. Davis likes having big veteran bodies around. I have seen very few Drummond games in his career; he is 27, which is younger than I had thought.
   2433. PJ Martinez Posted: March 28, 2021 at 11:01 PM (#6010519)
Nifty play by Gordon. Would love to see him lift Denver closer to the top out West.
   2434. jmurph Posted: March 29, 2021 at 08:59 AM (#6010528)
They aren’t sexy names but I feel like Dieng and Dedmon are way better than Aldridge at this point in his career, and better at the parts of the game that matter most to a team like the Nets.

Totally agree with this (unless Durant is going to miss a ton more time/the whole season).
   2435. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: March 29, 2021 at 11:27 AM (#6010549)
I don't really agree that Aldridge is in some terrible tailspin. Per 36 minutes his numbers are pretty similar to his usual ones except:

1) He's shooting a lot more 3s (and making them at 36 percent, which isn't bad), and
2) His offensive rebounding and free throws are down (because he's stationed behind the arc more)

It bears some similarity to Kevin Love in Cleveland -- it's not clear he's worse, he's just being used differently.

Mind you, I actually never thought Aldridge was all that valuable a player and was annoyed when the Spurs signed him, but I'm not sure what you're looking at is some sort of catastrophic dropoff in ability.
   2436. jmurph Posted: March 29, 2021 at 11:39 AM (#6010552)
I'm not sure I've even seen him this year so can't really speak to how he looks, but Aldridge's advanced numbers are at or near career lows across a lot of categories, including defensive rebounding.
   2437. tshipman Posted: March 29, 2021 at 12:40 PM (#6010559)
I'm not sure I've even seen him this year so can't really speak to how he looks, but Aldridge's advanced numbers are at or near career lows across a lot of categories, including defensive rebounding.


LMA's always been a good rebounder and this year is no exception.

The Spurs have rebounded 79% of defensive boards with him on the court (league average is 77.8%). That's not inflated by two big lineups: Aldridge and Poeltl never play together. Further, the Spurs rebound better with Aldridge on the court than Poeltl.

Everyone else in LMA's most commonly played lineup (DeRozan, Murray, Lonnie Walker and Keldon Johnson) have a neutral or negative effect on rebounding.

Aldridge can still go get it on the glass.
   2438. jmurph Posted: March 29, 2021 at 12:49 PM (#6010560)
Interesting, I guess that makes sense.

As I said I haven't seen him much if at all, but his on court and on/off are also terrible, career-worst. I don't know, I'm pretty skeptical of the case that he hasn't declined pretty significantly!
   2439. tshipman Posted: March 29, 2021 at 12:56 PM (#6010563)
He has declined (just not as a rebounder).

Aldridge has never been a great defensive center. This year you see that most strongly in the defensive numbers at the hoop.

With Aldridge on the court, Spurs have given up 28% of their shots within 3 feet, and opponents have shot 66.9% on those shots.

With Aldridge off the court, Spurs give up 25% of their shots within 3 feet, and opponents shoot 59.6%.

   2440. asinwreck Posted: March 29, 2021 at 05:18 PM (#6010599)
@wojespn
Free agent guard Jeff Teague is signing with Milwaukee, sources tell ESPN.
   2441. tshipman Posted: March 29, 2021 at 05:26 PM (#6010600)
What's the opposite of a "sweepstakes"?
   2442. spivey 2 Posted: March 29, 2021 at 05:34 PM (#6010602)
I have never liked Teague, but Milwaukee did need one more regular season ball handler with Augustin traded.
   2443. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: March 29, 2021 at 07:14 PM (#6010611)
I have never liked Teague, but Milwaukee did need one more regular season ball handler with Augustin traded.
nothing that jeff teague has done in the last 3 years makes me think that's a solved problem.
   2444. tshipman Posted: March 29, 2021 at 07:34 PM (#6010614)
The legend of BBall Paul continues to grow:

@DwightHoward on @Bball_paul : "The first day he came in training camp and the first thing he said was 'Call me alley. Throw me alley-oops.' And I'm like, 'Who in their right comes in and says call me alley?' You at least say your first and last name and where you are from."

   2445. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: March 29, 2021 at 07:40 PM (#6010616)
Would he grab more boards than Robert Williams?
Primarily inspired by an only-somewhat-rational fondness for Robert Williams as a prospect, I got interested in the question: they are both pulling down an identical 6.9ORB/100 this season, though Drummond's 16.1DRB/100 is well ahead of Timelord's 11.5. Some portion of the latter gap is hot air from discretionary rebounds (Cleveland's wings and guards are not frightening on the glass), though I don't know any reasonable technique for estimating how much.

Aldridge will likely look great on offense, though count me among his skeptics otherwise. If he steals Nic Claxton's minutes, I think the Nets are likely to be worse for it overall; the extent to which Aldridge can and does defend Embiid in the post(season) will likely determine the real value of the signing, though.

2441 made me laugh.
   2446. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: March 29, 2021 at 09:12 PM (#6010626)
What's the opposite of a "sweepstakes"?

Getting the short straw?
   2447. asinwreck Posted: March 29, 2021 at 09:27 PM (#6010627)
Getting the bullet in Russian roulette?
   2448. asinwreck Posted: March 29, 2021 at 09:53 PM (#6010629)
KAT and Edwards mounted a furious charge in the 4th that almost took down the Nets in Brooklyn.
   2449. PJ Martinez Posted: March 29, 2021 at 10:33 PM (#6010633)
Fournier went 0-10 in his Celtics debut, scoring zero points in 33 minutes. Apparently it's the most scoreless minutes for a Celtic with that many attempts since the three-point era began.

Nowhere to go but up, I suppose.
   2450. tshipman Posted: March 29, 2021 at 10:41 PM (#6010634)
Not my joke, but I enjoyed it:

Fournier put the gangrene in Gang Green tonight.
   2451. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: March 30, 2021 at 09:38 AM (#6010661)
KAT and Edwards mounted a furious charge in the 4th that almost took down the Nets in Brooklyn.


The late action alternated between "I get why they drafted Edwards" and "why do I waste my time watching this team when I could be chewing on glass instead" -- sometimes in the same goddamned possession.
   2452. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: March 30, 2021 at 12:08 PM (#6010690)
this is a fun video


when your two DPOY candidates are barely visible in a video about your team's suffocating defensive pressure, there might just be something interesting happening. there's 500MM worth of salary that's not even there.
   2453. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: March 30, 2021 at 12:28 PM (#6010695)
My two favorite parts of [2452] are:

* Tobias Harris randomly pulling up and clanking a 3 with no advantage
* The fact that literally every instance of Thybulle's name is pronounced differently
   2454. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: March 30, 2021 at 12:33 PM (#6010698)
   2455. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: March 30, 2021 at 01:26 PM (#6010708)
I don't have any memory of this play
oh, that was a fun one.
   2456. asinwreck Posted: March 30, 2021 at 02:37 PM (#6010724)
The late action alternated between "I get why they drafted Edwards" and "why do I waste my time watching this team when I could be chewing on glass instead" -- sometimes in the same goddamned possession.

Some truly abysmal basketball by both teams in large stretches of that game.
   2457. tshipman Posted: March 30, 2021 at 06:27 PM (#6010781)
Something interesting I noted following a conversation we had much earlier this season.

18 teams have had some kind of crowd this year, and 12 teams have not.

Unsurprisingly, given their ownership and state of residence, the league leader in attendance are the Orlando Magic.

Here are the teams, and their rank in attendance:

1. Orlando Magic (90k fans)
2. Utah Jazz (73k fans)
3. Houston Rockets (73k fans)
4. New Orleans Pelicans (52k fans)
5. Cleveland Cavaliers (42k fans)
6. Phoenix Suns (37k fans)

Below this point, there aren't very many fans, or they are distributed unevenly throughout the course of the season.
These teams have a combined record of 132-144.

Interestingly, they all have large home/road point differential splits.
Home, then road
1. Orlando: -4.3, -9.4, net 5.1 difference
2. Utah: +14.8, +4.6, net 10.2 difference
3. Houston: -7.6, -4.8, net -2.8 difference
4. New Orleans: +3.5, -2.6, net 6.1 difference
5. Cleveland: -3.0, -13.2, net 10.2 difference
6. Phoenix: +7.9, +4.8, net 3.1 difference

On average, these teams had a 5.3 net difference between home and road point differential, with Houston being the outlier (mainly driven by injuries in my opinion).

A similar group of teams by record (combined record of 128-117) that I did not cherry pick (you'll have to take my word for it), that had zero fans:
Home, then road
1. Clippers: +8.2, 5.3, net +2.9 difference
2. Lakers: +5.5, +3.8, net 1.3 difference
3. Timberwolves: -8.1, -7.8, net -0.3 difference
4. Oklahoma City: -9.1, -3.4, net -5.7 difference
5. Chicago Bulls: -3.5, +1.5, net -5.0 difference
6. Washington Wizards: -2.4, -7.1, net +4.7 difference

On average, these teams had a smaller variance between their road/home point differential, and the average differential was just -0.35.

Hypotheses:
1. Fans provide a fairly important part of home court advantage.
2. Teams like Utah may perform worse than we might otherwise think.
   2458. asinwreck Posted: March 30, 2021 at 09:32 PM (#6010797)
After one quarter in Denver: Nuggets 44, Sixers 22.
   2459. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: March 30, 2021 at 09:48 PM (#6010799)
2237. 57i66135' as of yet unfinished five-part trilogy Posted: March 24, 2021 at 12:43 AM (#6009801)
sixers ...
...when tony bradley starts: 7-1
...when tony bradley DNP-CDs: 19-5
...when tony bradley plays <10 minutes off the bench: 5-3
...when tony bradley plays 10+ mintutes off the bench: 0-4
2310. 57i66135' as of yet unfinished five-part trilogy Posted: March 25, 2021 at 01:02 PM (#6010049)
@ShamsCharania
The Oklahoma City Thunder are finalizing trading George Hill to the Philadelphia 76ers, sources tell
@TheAthletic @Stadium.

@wojespn
Philadelphia is acquiring OKC's George Hill for Tony Bradley, Terrance Fergusson and two future second-round picks, sources tell ESPN. Austin Rivers goes to OKC as part of a three-way deal.
yeah, sure, in.


tony bradley is, low-key, a bit of a loss...but the sixers are screwed if embiid is out, anyway, so #### it, cut em up.



also, quick question:

would you rather have michael porter jr, or zhaire smith?
   2460. tshipman Posted: March 31, 2021 at 12:18 AM (#6010810)
would you rather have michael porter jr, or zhaire smith?


I think I'd prefer Mikal Bridges as the 76ers, actually.
   2461. spivey 2 Posted: March 31, 2021 at 09:56 AM (#6010832)
Hypotheses:
1. Fans provide a fairly important part of home court advantage.
2. Teams like Utah may perform worse than we might otherwise think.


Different sports, but I think larger sample size analyses I've seen of other sports - like soccer - that normally have a very large HFA showed that there was no advantage when there are no fans.

So, sample size issues aside, I think fans are most/all of the driver of HFA for most sports, and it wouldn't surprise me if even small number of fans had an impact.
   2462. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: March 31, 2021 at 11:37 AM (#6010844)
DMC to the Clips. Him signing took way longer than I thought it would.
   2463. spivey 2 Posted: March 31, 2021 at 11:45 AM (#6010846)
KD had me when he was complaining about how the media frames their dumbass questions as something you need to respond Yes/No to... but then he lost me.
   2464. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: March 31, 2021 at 11:45 AM (#6010847)

Different sports, but I think larger sample size analyses I've seen of other sports - like soccer - that normally have a very large HFA showed that there was no advantage when there are no fans.

So, sample size issues aside, I think fans are most/all of the driver of HFA for most sports, and it wouldn't surprise me if even small number of fans had an impact.


Isn't a lot of that attributed to fan intimidation of the refs? Are there noticeable changes to the number of FT's home teams are getting with a home crowd and without?
   2465. NJ in NJ Posted: March 31, 2021 at 11:48 AM (#6010848)
.
   2466. asinwreck Posted: March 31, 2021 at 12:08 PM (#6010850)
DMC to the Clips. Him signing took way longer than I thought it would.

Apparently on a 10-day contract. Seems like Frank and Lue need to be convinced he isn't toast before planning their postseason.
   2467. spivey 2 Posted: March 31, 2021 at 12:29 PM (#6010851)
Isn't a lot of that attributed to fan intimidation of the refs? Are there noticeable changes to the number of FT's home teams are getting with a home crowd and without?


I think it's probably hard to parse out fan intimidation of the refs, of the opposing players, and motivation for the home players in the NBA since they're not variables that you can isolate against each other.

But I think it's a lot more than intimidation of the refs, at least based (again) on other sports like soccer. I'd have to look at some of the HFA advantage in soccer, but I'd be shocked if the difference simply came down to the home team getting more penalties. Fans affect how players play.
   2468. tshipman Posted: March 31, 2021 at 01:51 PM (#6010864)
Isn't a lot of that attributed to fan intimidation of the refs? Are there noticeable changes to the number of FT's home teams are getting with a home crowd and without?


Not really, although you can actually check this yourself and not just lazily toss off questions.

Home FTA, Road FTA, Difference
1. Orlando: 18.4, 20.9, -2.5 FTA
2. Utah: 22.7, 21.6, +1.1 FTA
3. Houston: 24.2, 20.3, +3.9
4. New Orleans: 26.5, 23.4, +3.1
5. Cleveland: 22.1, 22.1, 0.0
6. Phoenix: 18.9, 17.7, +2.2

Average: 1.13 additional FTA, which equates to about 1 point of the 5.3 net difference. Opponents shoot about four tenths of a FT fewer (17 to 16.6).

Looking at the other four factors,

offensive rebounding is about the same (just a quarter of an ORB more per game), but defensive rebounding actually has more of an impact. Teams go from getting 51% of all rebounds at home to 49.7% on the road.

Instead the largest impact actually appears to be shooting. Our "big crowd" teams shoot 53% at home and 52% on the road, and they shoot 37% from 3 at home and 35% on the road. We also see this in FT%, where the home team shoots 77% from the line at home, and 75.7% on the road.

Turnovers do not appear to be a factor, as for both "big crowd" teams and their opponents, there is almost no effect.
   2469. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: March 31, 2021 at 03:56 PM (#6010881)
Not really, although you can actually check this yourself and not just lazily toss off questions.


I prefer to think of it as idle conjecturing to further the discussion.

Thank you for looking into it.
   2470. Hot Wheeling American Posted: March 31, 2021 at 04:10 PM (#6010883)
Not really, although you can actually check this yourself and not just lazily toss off questions

wtf
   2471. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: March 31, 2021 at 04:53 PM (#6010887)
Here is a NBA.com link on where teams are on letting fans back in:

The 2020-21 NBA regular season began on Dec. 22. Fan attendance across the country depends on a variety of factors, including coronavirus guidelines that vary from state to state.


link

As a Lakers fan, I will be interested to see how things go in games in Denver and Utah in postseason especially.
   2472. PJ Martinez Posted: March 31, 2021 at 09:08 PM (#6010927)
Looks like they may have finally used up all the magic leprechaun dust:
Celtics 3-point defense (NBA Rank)

First 22 games - .350 (4th)
Last 25 1/2 games - .383 (26th)

2019-20 (2nd)
2018-19 (6th)
2017-18 (1st)
2016-17 (2nd)
2015-16 (4th)
2014-15 (4th)
2013-14 (5th)
In Boston's loss to New Orleans the other night, the Pelicans went 16-31 from three. Tonight, Dallas is 14-27 so far.
   2473. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: March 31, 2021 at 10:23 PM (#6010933)
First 22 games - .350 (4th)
Last 25 1/2 games - .383 (26th


Hmm. Do you think there is a specific reason for it?
   2474. jmurph Posted: April 01, 2021 at 07:15 AM (#6010951)
Just trash defense all across the board: 21st/13th/17th/27th in the Defensive Four Factors on the season. They just look slow and unathletic out there, late on help/running at shooters, it's not much fun to watch.

Time to start looking at potential lottery picks, apparently!
   2475. jmurph Posted: April 01, 2021 at 11:19 AM (#6010999)
Roy Williams is retiring from UNC, perhaps we'll get a test of the relative appeal of elite college jobs vs NBA jobs.
   2476. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: April 01, 2021 at 11:52 AM (#6011011)
I kinda like this new Bulls roster offensively. They have a chance to be damn good on that end, maybe one of the best in decades. However, their ceiling appears to be the 2nd best defense on the court for every game.
   2477. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: April 01, 2021 at 11:53 AM (#6011012)
Roy Williams is retiring from UNC, perhaps we'll get a test of the relative appeal of elite college jobs vs NBA jobs.

Any specific coach in mind? They tend to be kinda insular and off the top of my head I can't think of any UNC guys that are NBA head coaches right now.
   2478. jmurph Posted: April 01, 2021 at 11:56 AM (#6011013)
Any specific coach in mind? They tend to be kinda insular and off the top of my head I can't think of any UNC guys that are NBA head coaches right now.

No one in particular, and good point on the insularity, although I guess they haven't exactly had a lot of openings in our lifetimes to test that.

I just thought it was interesting that we just had this conversation in the thread recently about coaches with options clearly preferring NBA jobs, but UNC/Duke/Kentucky are thought of as possible caveats to that.
   2479. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 01, 2021 at 12:19 PM (#6011018)
Jazz guard Jordan Clarkson recalls what happened yesterday on the team charter.
"At least 30 seconds on that flight everyone came to a point where it was like, 'man, this might be over for us.'"#TakeNote l @kslsports
pic.twitter.com/lCwaiWH9Q7
— Sam Farnsworth (@Samsworth_KSL) April 1, 2021
Mike Conley's account of yesterday's incident is terrifying.
pic.twitter.com/NRi9OCuZgu
— Matthew L Glade (@matthewLksl) April 1, 2021
Omari Sanfoka II @omarisankofa
Dwane Casey said Jahlil Okafor practiced yesterday and could return any day now.
Ben Anderson @BensHoops
Quin Snyder when asked about Donovan Mitchell's future willingness to fly with the team:
"I never comment on personal situations with any of our players. I hope you can respect that."
   2480. tshipman Posted: April 01, 2021 at 02:44 PM (#6011051)
No current NBA coaches went to UNC.

That seems mildly unusual.

Edit: Stackhouse is a well-regarded former G-League coach (currently at Vanderbilt) and former UNC. If the insular stuff is true, then you'd have to imagine he'd be looked at.

Double edit: Hubert Davis is an assistant head coach at UNC, so maybe him?
   2481. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: April 01, 2021 at 03:50 PM (#6011075)
I've seen some people kicking around Kenny Smith's name for the UNC job. As someone who pays no attention to college hoops but does want TNT to shake up Inside the NBA, that would be cool with me.
   2482. aberg Posted: April 01, 2021 at 04:57 PM (#6011094)
I've seen some people kicking around Kenny Smith's name for the UNC job. As someone who pays no attention to college hoops but does want TNT to shake up Inside the NBA, that would be cool with me.


Kenny Smith has been around a lot of greats. He was on the Rockets with Olajuwon and Drexler. He's on Inside with Shaq and Barkley. He's in commercials with Reggie Miller and Tony Romo. It's not just that all those guys were better at him as athletes- they were all WAY better than him. Inside should replace him with Candice Parker whether he takes the UNC job or not.
   2483. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: April 01, 2021 at 06:04 PM (#6011129)
Shaq needs to go first.
   2484. spivey 2 Posted: April 01, 2021 at 07:34 PM (#6011164)
We've seen during the tournament you can build a money ass lineup around Candace and Wade. I'd love for them to go all-in on that. You can keep Chuck around, but have people that can intelligently call him on his bullshit.
   2485. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: April 01, 2021 at 08:25 PM (#6011170)
Shaq needs to go first.
Bill Russell is the greatest defensive big man of all time. Shaq is the most defensive big man of all time.
   2486. PJ Martinez Posted: April 01, 2021 at 08:30 PM (#6011172)
First 22 games - .350 (4th)
Last 25 1/2 games - .383 (26th
Hmm. Do you think there is a specific reason for it?
It doesn't line up exactly, but Marcus Smart played in 17 of the first 18 games, then missed the next 17 games, and looked (to me) a little sluggish and possibly a tad out of shape when he came back. He's played in the last 11 games, and has actually looked better to me in the last couple -- when, as it happens, the Celtics were torched from three. So, like I said, it doesn't line up exactly. But perhaps Smart has been be a factor, particularly since he's often given credit for helping to direct the defense and amp up his teammates' defensive intensity, etc. Or maybe it's random.
   2487. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: April 01, 2021 at 09:54 PM (#6011180)
Okay, but who is the funniest alum hire they could make? Coach Tyler Hansbrough would be pretty funny.
   2488. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 01, 2021 at 10:23 PM (#6011181)
Okay, but who is the funniest alum hire they could make? Coach Tyler Hansbrough would be pretty funny.
rasheed wallace.
   2489. tshipman Posted: April 01, 2021 at 11:12 PM (#6011189)
Okay, but who is the funniest alum hire they could make? Coach Tyler Hansbrough would be pretty funny.


Completely obligatory
   2490. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: April 02, 2021 at 09:42 AM (#6011214)
Took the plunge and wagered lunch for two at Chipotle on the Nuggets at 18-1. Could've had 22-1 a week ago but oh well, that will just be two fewer lunches when it cashes.

Looking forward to the Lakers beating them 4-1 in round one.
   2491. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: April 02, 2021 at 09:45 AM (#6011215)
rasheed is already a coach at a high school that just a few miles away - he wouldn't even have to move
   2492. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 02, 2021 at 10:36 AM (#6011220)
Chris Haynes @ChrisBHaynes
Yahoo Sources: @TheBIG3 is returning and launching its 2021 season on July 10 with a 10-week campaign and two hosting sites in Las Vegas and at HBCU’s Xavier University.
sports.yahoo.com/sources-big3-r…
   2493. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 02, 2021 at 11:31 AM (#6011226)
Adam Zagoria @AdamZagoria
Kansas announced it has signed Bill Self to a lifetime contact extension

   2494. jmurph Posted: April 02, 2021 at 11:45 AM (#6011229)
Kansas announced it has signed Bill Self to a lifetime contact extension

College sports are so deeply stupid.
   2495. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 02, 2021 at 12:14 PM (#6011232)
Shams Charania @ShamsCharania
The New York Knicks plan to sign center Norvel Pelle to a 10-day contract this weekend, sources tell @TheAthletic @Stadium.
Tommy Beer @TommyBeer
Over the past three years, Nike has generated $4.1 billion of pretax income. Over the past three years, Nike has paid $0 in federal income tax. Nike was just one of 50+ Fortune 500 companies to pay no federal income tax last year, according to ITEP: forbes.com/sites/tommybee…
Christopher Hine @ChristopherHine
Landed in Philly and within 3 minutes my Lyft driver told me about his upcoming trip to Vegas and with his wife and her “freaky deaky” friend. It’s great to be back here.
Kurt Helin @basketballtalk
Draymond Green: ‘No play-in game is going to motivate me at this point of my career’ nba.nbcsports.com/2021/04/02/dra…
   2496. tshipman Posted: April 02, 2021 at 01:15 PM (#6011238)
The Aaron Gordon trade so far has to be considered the biggest win of the deadline.

Gordon through three games has gone from 38% of his 2p shots being assisted to 77%. From 7% of his field goals as dunks to 31%. From 48% on 2p shots to 72%.

The space provided by Jokic and Murray is just completely unlocking the finishing ability of Gordon.
   2497. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: April 02, 2021 at 02:57 PM (#6011268)
So last year, at the start of the playoffs, odds to win the West were Lakers +150, Clippers +180, Rockets +650, Blazers +1300 (?), Nuggets +1500.

Right now, per Pinnacle, it's Lakers +155, Clippers +280, Jazz +380, Nuggets +700, Suns +1050.

So is it closer/deeper at the top? To me it feels that way, but maybe that's just because Davis/James are injured and I'm discounting the Clippers too much because of last year's flop? But Nuggets/Jazz/Suns all feel better to me than last year's middle of the playoff teams. I guess there was that point pre-COVID where it felt like the Rockets were putting it together.

   2498. Fourth True Outcome Posted: April 02, 2021 at 03:12 PM (#6011276)
Primer RT:
Isaiah Thomas is signing a 10-day contract with New Orleans and is eligible to make his Pelicans debut on Sunday vs. Houston, sources tell @TheAthletic
@Stadium
.


Hmm. Do you think there is a specific reason for it?

My take on much of the Celtics' struggles this season, including this topic, is that Brad Stevens runs offensive and defensive systems that require tight coordination from the team. His motion offense bogs down into iso ball when players aren't making the right reads/cuts/passes; his defense revolves around high-effort rotations and coordination. The Celtics have had the most missed time for COVID, their best players have been variously injured this season (Tatum has lingering COVID effects, Smart and Kemba both have missed half the season, Brown has been dealing with lingering knee issues, etc.) That would be tough in a normal year, but this season, with its lack of practice and rest, has compounded that. The Cs came into the year thin and young as a team (it seems pretty clear Ainge planned on Garden Howitzer returning, whoops), with their rookies having no summer league and the non-rookies having had a deep playoff run in the bubble.

That's a bunch of excuses for poor performance, which no one seems to like for the NBA, but I've come around to viewing this as a growth/lost year for the Cs for those reasons. Tatum and Brown have gotten better as faciliators, but the team needs that to continue to contend. They need a healthy Kemba or to get rid of him. They need more wing depth than they've had. It'd be nice if they were contenders this year, but I don't see it happening, for a combination of the factors above and underperformance (which I think is largely one and the same, but YMMV). Celtics twitter seems to have decided that the team is full of frauds who don't care/try enough; I think that's dumb and they're just exhausted and too thin to overcome that fact. I think the biggest thing the team needs is a couple weeks of practice and rest, but that's not a thing they're going to get until the offseason. I guess if I'm right the magic 3p% defense will return next season; time will tell.
   2499. tshipman Posted: April 02, 2021 at 03:24 PM (#6011278)
So is it closer/deeper at the top? To me it feels that way, but maybe that's just because Davis/James are injured and I'm discounting the Clippers too much because of last year's flop? But Nuggets/Jazz/Suns all feel better to me than last year's middle of the playoff teams. I guess there was that point pre-COVID where it felt like the Rockets were putting it together.


I think by the time the playoffs arrive, the Nuggets should be considered the favorites.
   2500. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 02, 2021 at 04:10 PM (#6011296)
I think by the time the playoffs arrive, the Nuggets should be considered the favorites.
you're a hornets fan now. you have forfeited the right to root for any team that has a chance of winning a title in your lifetime.
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