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Friday, December 18, 2020

NBA 2020 Season kick-off thread

I estimate it would take 10-12 Primates to beat James Harden in a wing eating contest.

Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: December 18, 2020 at 02:28 PM | 2993 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: best shape of his life, nba, off-topic

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   2701. jmurph Posted: April 19, 2021 at 02:24 PM (#6014268)
The Warriors thing is interesting. I think they basically have to make a giant trade, whether that's for Beal or some other star that becomes available that isn't on the radar right now.

Alternatively they could absolutely just crap away the final years of their franchise player's career like the Mavericks did with Dirk, I guess that's always a fun option.
   2702. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 19, 2021 at 02:39 PM (#6014269)
It is RussLan, btw.
oh, i know. but it's still funnier the other way.
Haha, trying out a dictation software, works well in the program, not so well in the browser.

and i think it's safe to assume their training set did not include very much NBA-adjacent banter.
   2703. tshipman Posted: April 19, 2021 at 04:20 PM (#6014285)
Dunc'd on Podcast on top 10 in the NBA:

Danny:
1. LeBron
2. Kawhi
3. Durant
-
4. Curry
5. Giannis
6. Anthony Davis
-
7. Embiid
8. Luka
9. Jokic
10. Lillard
11. Harden
Nate:
1. LeBron
-
2. Kawhi
3. Curry
-
4. Anthony Davis
5. Durant
6. Giannis
7. Embiid
8. Luka
-
9. Jokic
10. Lillard
11. Harden

***

My thoughts: it's a joke to have Lillard above Harden. I kind of feel like Jokic should maybe be in tier 1 with LeBron, and I don't really buy the idea that he's too bad on defense to win a championship.

Edit: oh and Jimmy Butler is way too low, particularly relative to Lillard.
   2704. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: April 19, 2021 at 04:53 PM (#6014288)
My thoughts: it's a joke to have Lillard above Harden. I kind of feel like Jokic should maybe be in tier 1 with LeBron, and I don't really buy the idea that he's too bad on defense to win a championship.


I have not dug into the numbers, but at least for this season Nuggets are 8 per 100 possessions worse defensively with Jokic on the court (from BR, I'm guessing the NBA numbers are slightly different). I think he's probably still the MVP because of all the time Embiid and Lebron have missed, but I do wonder if his defense has flipped from being underrated to overrated as more people have realized how great he is offensively.
   2705. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: April 19, 2021 at 04:54 PM (#6014289)

Watching the Jazz, led by Bojan Bogdanavic and Jordan Clarkson, go at the Lakers, led by Andre Drummond and Dennis Schroder, is a real experience. I could do with less of it.


The one thing I'll say is that it was actually a fun game despite both teams having so little talent on the court.
   2706. jmurph Posted: April 19, 2021 at 05:03 PM (#6014293)
My thoughts: it's a joke to have Lillard above Harden. I kind of feel like Jokic should maybe be in tier 1 with LeBron, and I don't really buy the idea that he's too bad on defense to win a championship.

Edit: oh and Jimmy Butler is way too low, particularly relative to Lillard.

On that note, I found the 11-20ish (more, I think, I'm pretty sure Duncan had Bam at 21 if I understood it correctly) to be the most interesting part.

Kawhi at 2 was also interesting to me. At some point doesn't it have to matter that a guy isn't available ~25% of the time (that could be said of a lot of guys on the list, actually, but this is three straight years for Kawhi, and that's NOT counting the missed last year in San Antonio)? I listened to the whole thing and I'm not certain how they treated that kind of thing- I believe the criteria was basically, let's assume guys are available going forward but also assume their injury histories might effect them (this was a Murray reference, specifically).



   2707. SteveF Posted: April 19, 2021 at 05:31 PM (#6014296)
The defensive impact of bigs that can only play drop is significantly blunted once you get out of the first round of the playoffs and every team has a guy that can run a high PnR and make 3s off the dribble. So I guess in that sense it's fair to wonder how big a deal Jokic's defense really is if OffensiveEngine#23 can shoot over Embiid and Gobert as they pack into the paint as easily as they can Jokic.
   2708. tshipman Posted: April 19, 2021 at 06:17 PM (#6014304)
Kawhi at 2 was also interesting to me. At some point doesn't it have to matter that a guy isn't available ~25% of the time (that could be said of a lot of guys on the list, actually, but this is three straight years for Kawhi, and that's NOT counting the missed last year in San Antonio)? I listened to the whole thing and I'm not certain how they treated that kind of thing- I believe the criteria was basically, let's assume guys are available going forward but also assume their injury histories might effect them (this was a Murray reference, specifically).


Agree with this, and would add that Kawhi was not that great in the playoffs last year.

The defensive impact of bigs that can only play drop is significantly blunted once you get out of the first round of the playoffs and every team has a guy that can run a high PnR and make 3s off the dribble. So I guess in that sense it's fair to wonder how big a deal Jokic's defense really is if OffensiveEngine#23 can shoot over Embiid and Gobert as they pack into the paint as easily as they can Jokic.


This is where I'm coming from. Jokic being a bunch worse this year is more about opponent 3p% than it is about other stuff. 38% opponent 3p% when Jokic is on, and 30.7% when Jokic is off.

Jokic probably hurts your 3p defense, but not by that much.
   2709. nick swisher hygiene Posted: April 19, 2021 at 08:47 PM (#6014329)
Over/under on Holmgen’s career versus this guy?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/walkech01.html

Edit: maybe the earlier poster cuts off modern at 1980?

#chet
   2710. spivey 2 Posted: April 19, 2021 at 10:10 PM (#6014347)
I think the top 10 is very fluid.

Kawhi's health has me worried, and he didn't even look healthy in the playoffs when he was with Toronto. You can count that as a pro or a con since he was still the best player in the playoffs that year, but point being I don't know that you can ever count on him to be healthy when the playoffs rolls around. That matters.

To me LeBron is #1. That's clear to me. I think it's pretty muddled from like #2-10. I probably would put Durant at #2, but I'd like to see him play a consistent run of games at a super high intensity and physicality like the playoffs and see both how well he'd hold up and if he's still a solid defender when the money's on the line or if he's just a one-way player now.

Lillard kind of depends on what you're trying to measure. He's healthier than a lot of these guys, plays bigger minutes per game than most of them, has crazy clutch stats this year iirc. But if it's a "Let's assume everyone's healthy going into a season or into the playoffs and we're doing a draft", I don't think he's top 10.
   2711. tshipman Posted: April 19, 2021 at 10:22 PM (#6014353)
Lillard kind of depends on what you're trying to measure. He's healthier than a lot of these guys, plays bigger minutes per game than most of them, has crazy clutch stats this year iirc. But if it's a "Let's assume everyone's healthy going into a season or into the playoffs and we're doing a draft", I don't think he's top 10.


Lillard for his career is a net negative in the playoffs. He has one year in the last six years where he was a net positive for his team. You compare him to guys like Harden, and it's not even close. Guys like Harden or Giannis get a lot of criticism because they're expected to succeed as the leader of 60 win teams, and winner of an MVP. Lillard kind of gets to skate by because no one expects the Trailblazers to be good. It's ridiculous to put him ahead of Harden or Jimmy Butler.

***

The carry job Curry is doing with this Golden State roster is completely absurd. They had no business beating the 76ers.
   2712. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 19, 2021 at 10:31 PM (#6014356)
The carry job Curry is doing with this Golden State roster is completely absurd. They had no business beating the 76ers, who were without simmons and tharris.
ftfy.
   2713. tshipman Posted: April 19, 2021 at 11:39 PM (#6014368)
Wow, we know we've been on a journey when Tobias Harris being out of a game is an official Stiggles excuse for the 76ers losing.
   2714. asinwreck Posted: April 19, 2021 at 11:41 PM (#6014369)
The Bulls are playing defense. The Chicago Bulls are actually playing defense.
   2715. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 20, 2021 at 06:38 AM (#6014380)
Wow, we know we've been on a journey when Tobias Harris being out of a game is an official Stiggles excuse for the 76ers losing.
if tharris had played this well since he's been in philly, the sixers would be (possibly 2x) NBA champions.
   2716. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 20, 2021 at 12:51 PM (#6014424)
the ringer did a thing. guess some comps:

Top five comps: (1) Kyle Singler, (2) Hedo Turkoglu, (3) Moe Harkless, (4) Trenton Hassell, (5) Chandler Parsons

Top five comps: (1) Coby White, (2) J.R. Smith, (3) Collin Sexton, (4) Dion Waiters, (5) Jordan Crawford

Top five comps: (1) Keith Bogans, (2) Miles Bridges, (3) Jae Crowder, (4) Paul Zipser, (5) Justin Jackson

   2717. tshipman Posted: April 20, 2021 at 02:28 PM (#6014441)
I think it's fascinating that people on various social media complain about the Ringer's comps because the Ringer includes busts and only rarely includes all-stars.
   2718. jmurph Posted: April 20, 2021 at 02:31 PM (#6014444)
Yeah assuming those are high lottery picks, that's an uninspiring group of comps for the most part, leading me to believe they're fairly reasonable since most picks end up being pretty uninspiring!
   2719. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: April 20, 2021 at 03:37 PM (#6014470)
if tharris had played this well since he's been in philly, the sixers would be (possibly 2x) NBA champions.


If a frog had wings, he wouldn't whomp his ass on a lily pad every time he jumped.
   2720. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: April 20, 2021 at 05:04 PM (#6014481)
I was gonna say after the Sixers-Warriors game maybe Steph should be MVP again. Then Jokic put up 47/15/8. But I think Curry is the runner-up right now.
   2721. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 20, 2021 at 05:57 PM (#6014486)
from [2716]:

player A: patrick william
player B: anthony edward
player C: devins vassells
   2722. GregD Posted: April 20, 2021 at 06:40 PM (#6014489)
On the comps I could see weighting age more than they did. Not sure comparing guys who are 19 with guys who are 22 tells us so much.

But big point here:

Yeah assuming those are high lottery picks, that's an uninspiring group of comps for the most part, leading me to believe they're fairly reasonable since most picks end up being pretty uninspiring!


Is obviously right. Most drafted guys are disappointing

It’s reasonable to hope your #11 pick is better than Keith Bogans....but I wouldn’t be shocked if Bogans would be a cromulent career for a #11 guy:

Its really a toy not serious analysis but the 82 games analysis but it has #11 with a 15 percent chance star, 15 percent good, 30 percent role player, 35 percent deep bench. 5 percent chance do not play

I know people felt like Bogans should be deep bench but in reality he had ten years of role player. That’s a decent outcome for Vassel.

For Bogans’ actual draft position—43–it is way over expectation
   2723. asinwreck Posted: April 20, 2021 at 06:54 PM (#6014493)
@ShamsCharania
Nets say James Harden experienced a setback while conducting on-court rehab on Monday and will be out indefinitely with hamstring strain.
   2724. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: April 20, 2021 at 07:15 PM (#6014494)
Looking at the basic metrics, it seems pretty clear that Jokic should get MVP. He leads in

BPM
OBPM
WS
PER
VORP
   2725. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 20, 2021 at 07:18 PM (#6014495)
Looking at the basic metrics, it seems pretty clear that Jokic should get MVP. He leads in

BPM
OBPM
WS
PER
VORP
also, BMI.
   2726. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: April 20, 2021 at 07:26 PM (#6014499)
Marc Stein @TheSteinLine

The Clippers, in this season's latest injury blow to a star player, just announced that Kawhi Leonard has been managing right foot soreness and will be re-evaluated next week.


Marc Stein @TheSteinLine

And Nets coach Steve Nash said tonight that Harden, long regarded as one of the league's most durable players, might be out until the playoffs because of his hamstring injury, taking Brooklyn "back to Square One."


Obviously the rest of the season still matters for both of these teams, and I'm not saying either of them is lying or exaggerating....but, I wouldn't be surprised if both teams are just being extra cautious here* and have done some sort of cost analysis here and decided it's just better/safer to just try and make sure these guys are healthy for the playoffs.

*This point probably applies to more players on these teams, and well, more teams. There could be a lot more ugly games as the season plays out with guys resting and load managing and what not.
   2727. asinwreck Posted: April 20, 2021 at 07:37 PM (#6014500)
I'm guessing the Harden injury is for real. Harden, Irving, and Durant have taken the floor together in exactly seven games, and establishing some familiarity seems like something the Nets would want to do before the postseason.

Blake's played zero games with that trio. The playoffs will be interesting.
   2728. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: April 20, 2021 at 08:26 PM (#6014510)
As to Curry, his current OBPM is 8.4, and his DBPM is 0.2. That's Curry: an historic guy on O, and OK on D. And one of the greatest PGs ever-- maybe the greatest.
   2729. tshipman Posted: April 20, 2021 at 10:15 PM (#6014572)
I wonder what is going on with Harden's hamstring. He has been an ironman up until this year. I can't imagine they're playing games with it.

Seems weird for an MRI to rule him out indefinitely, particularly when it was just a strain.
   2730. jmurph Posted: April 21, 2021 at 07:36 AM (#6014593)
Maybe Dr. Zop can explain it for us?
   2731. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 21, 2021 at 10:35 AM (#6014621)
Maybe Dr. Zop can explain it for us?
i tore a hamstring when i was in middle school, and it didn't stop me from playing first base in little league. this is just an excuse he'll use to retire at the end of the season. he doesn't want to play anymore.

   2732. jmurph Posted: April 21, 2021 at 12:05 PM (#6014650)
Did someone post this already? Anthony Edwards on ARod continues to be great.
   2733. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: April 21, 2021 at 12:17 PM (#6014653)
Anthony Edwards IS great. If he becomes as great a player as he is an interview he will be all NBA.
   2734. asinwreck Posted: April 21, 2021 at 07:35 PM (#6014824)
The Bulls are playing defense. The Chicago Bulls are actually playing defense.

That was an aberration.
   2735. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 21, 2021 at 07:52 PM (#6014827)
Wes Goldberg @wcgoldberg
Andrew Wiggins has become the first Canadian-born player to score 10,000 career points, per the Warriors.


whither samuel dalembert.
   2736. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 21, 2021 at 07:54 PM (#6014828)
Rick Noland @RickNoland
East play-in tourney appears so unappealing to most teams they might rest guys DURING it so they don't accidentally make playoffs

   2737. SteveF Posted: April 21, 2021 at 07:59 PM (#6014830)
Well, I know one lineup that isn't going to work with Embiid on the floor if Phoenix matches up with them in the finals.
   2738. Mike A Posted: April 21, 2021 at 11:04 PM (#6014870)
And now Trae Young goes down with a sprained ankle to add to the walking wounded Hawks.

It seems like more players are getting injured this year with the condensed schedule, but the NBA says injuries are actually slightly down compared to last year and within typical range. Doesn't make me feel much better.
   2739. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: April 21, 2021 at 11:20 PM (#6014873)
Hey, let's make a NBA "SuperThread", with just Moses and Der-K posting.
   2740. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 22, 2021 at 09:43 AM (#6014902)
Wes Goldberg @wcgoldberg
Andrew Wiggins has become the first Canadian-born player to score 10,000 career points, per the Warriors.

whither samuel dalembert.


My guess is Haiti, where he was born and lived until he went to high school in Canada.
   2741. asinwreck Posted: April 22, 2021 at 09:57 AM (#6014906)
The Wiggins stat would be a good bar bet for those unaware that Steve Nash was born in South Africa.
   2742. tshipman Posted: April 22, 2021 at 11:10 AM (#6014914)
I remember being in a crowd in Toronto where they were losing by 20 to the Bulls in one of Derrick Rose's many comeback attempts, where the whole crowd chanted "Tank for Wiggins."
   2743. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: April 22, 2021 at 11:22 AM (#6014915)
The Bulls are playing defense. The Chicago Bulls are actually playing defense.

That was an aberration.


The offense also no showed last night. They're now down to 12th in the East. Worst case scenario for them is missing the play in tourney and not winning a lotto spot; that'll really, really make this bad trade look even worse. I'm tired of rooting for draft position, but I also can't in good conscience really hope they sneak in as the 10th seed only to get blown out of the water. That's not real progress.
   2744. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 22, 2021 at 01:44 PM (#6014946)
The stats tell a grim story. Some 88 rookies have taken the floor in an NBA game this regular season, including undrafted free-agents, fringe players hanging onto two-way contracts, players from previous draft classes who’ve only now been brought stateside, and a handful of emergency 10-day contract-type guys. Of that extremely unsexy group, Avdija—who I must reiterate was the ninth pick in the 2020 NBA draft and was selected by a team that finished second-to-last in the dismal Southeast Division in each of the last two seasons—ranks 81st in usage, at just 11.8 percent. Per Cleaning The Glass, which filters out garbage time, Avdija’s usage ranks 437th out of 466 players who’ve seen at least 100 minutes of playtime this season. For a point of comparison, in no season of Tony Allen’s 14-year career did his usage fall below 16.6 percent, and Allen was one of the last truly offensively inept wings to hold down a rotation job in a sport rapidly evolving to exclude defense-only non-centers. Jan Vesely’s usage never dropped below 12.0, and he was one of the worst, most apocalyptically embarrassing draft busts in history. Bismack damn Biyombo gets more looks at the cup.
...
despite scoring 30 points a game and gobbling up 34 percent of possessions for his own offense, Beal doesn’t even lead the Wizards in usage. Russell Westbrook, who is in the 17th percentile in points-per-shot attempt and in the 14th percentile in turnover percentage, is all the way up to third in the NBA in usage, at a whopping 36.4 percent of Wizards possessions

   2745. Paul d mobile Posted: April 22, 2021 at 02:29 PM (#6014954)
Dumb questions - the 9 and 10th place teams do, or do not, qualify for the lottery?
   2746. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: April 22, 2021 at 02:39 PM (#6014956)
I believe they do not qualify for the lottery. At least that's what I'm inferring from this.
   2747. Laser Man Posted: April 22, 2021 at 03:24 PM (#6014960)
The teams who lose in the Play-In tournament do qualify for the lottery, according to the article linked in 2746. It states that the Loser of Game 2 (9 vs 10) and the Loser of Game 3 (Loser of Game 1 vs Winner of Game 2) enter the lottery.
   2748. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: April 22, 2021 at 03:41 PM (#6014964)
Duh, I can't read
   2749. SteveF Posted: April 22, 2021 at 07:35 PM (#6014992)
They should just sit Embiid and punt this game.
   2750. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 22, 2021 at 08:04 PM (#6014998)
Rich Hoffman @rich_hofmann
The Sixers trail the Bucks 33-13 as Milwaukee is 12-13 from the field. This has a chance to be quite ugly for the top team in the East.
   2751. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 22, 2021 at 09:05 PM (#6015004)
Ky Carlin @Ky_Carlin
Philly pulled to within 9 thanks to Tobias Harris, then Bobby Portis then hit 3 corner triples and Milwaukee is back up 108-87 heading into the 4th #Sixers
   2752. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 22, 2021 at 09:59 PM (#6015016)
Legion Hoops
@LegionHoops
CBS is reporting that Terrance Clarke, the Kentucky guard who was expected to be picked in this year's NBA Draft, has passed away in a tragic car accident.
   2753. Paul d mobile Posted: April 23, 2021 at 08:13 AM (#6015045)
Giving teams that lose in the playoffs a lottery pick seems a weird incentive/game theory question.
   2754. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 23, 2021 at 10:34 AM (#6015052)
My understanding is that the play-in game is not part of the playoffs (thus the name).
   2755. jmurph Posted: April 23, 2021 at 11:08 AM (#6015056)
Giving teams that lose in the playoffs a lottery pick seems a weird incentive/game theory question.

I think it's the right move, but we'll see how it plays out. You want teams to want to finish 10th rather than 11th, even if 10th is a long shot in the play-in tournament. But if the options are 10th and likely losing in the play-in and NO lottery pick or 11th and a lottery pick, teams might be hesitant to fully go for 10th.
   2756. JC in DC Posted: April 23, 2021 at 12:57 PM (#6015067)
Stiggles: Have you been paying attention to Noel in NY? He's been excellent. At times he has some issues with holding or catching the ball, but his rim protection instincts are unreal.
   2757. DCA Posted: April 23, 2021 at 01:24 PM (#6015070)
You want teams to want to finish 10th rather than 11th, even if 10th is a long shot in the play-in tournament.

But you want to incentivize teams to want to win the play-in game too, probably even more so. Win and have to win 4 series as a massive underdog, or lose and get a lottery ball?

Obviously, in years like 2008 when the 9th seed in West won 48 games, they are playing to win. But in the East that year, the 10th seed was the 34 win Nets with a -5 SRS. They should be trying to lose.
   2758. jmurph Posted: April 23, 2021 at 01:31 PM (#6015071)
But you want to incentivize teams to want to win the play-in game too, probably even more so. Win and have to win 4 series as a massive underdog, or lose and get a lottery ball?

Yeah, good point. There's probably no perfect way.
   2759. Mike A Posted: April 23, 2021 at 02:11 PM (#6015075)
Once you're in the play-ins, it doesn't matter too much draft odds-wise if you win or lose. The 11th seeded lottery team has a 9.4% chance of getting a top 4 pick. If you're that 11th team, you're throwing those 1 in 10 odds away if you advance. The 14th seeded team is only throwing away a 2.4% chance.

10th is at 13.9%, so we're moving up slightly but the odds are still pretty darn low.

When we get to 8th and 9th, then it gets more interesting. We're talking 23-24% top 4 odds, so roughly 1 in 4 at getting a high pick. The Bulls and Raptors are tied for those spots at this point in what is projected to be a nice draft. They are also only a half-game away from the play-in games.

I mean, the Bulls and Raptors aren't bad teams and could theoretically give the 76ers/Nets/Bucks a bit of a fight, but it seems to me it would be best if they just kept losing instead and missed the play-in games.
   2760. Paul d mobile Posted: April 23, 2021 at 02:11 PM (#6015076)
Let the 10 seed make the play-in and get a lottery ball. If they win the championship as the 10 seed and get the first overall trip, so be it.
   2761. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: April 23, 2021 at 03:11 PM (#6015081)
I always liked some scenario where there was a flat lotto odds for all non-playoff teams, but have been told that would make teams intentionally miss the playoffs. My other idea is give everyone that either misses the playoffs or loses in the first round equal odds. No one seems to like my ideas.
   2762. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: April 23, 2021 at 03:20 PM (#6015082)
I mean, the Bulls and Raptors aren't bad teams and could theoretically give the 76ers/Nets/Bucks a bit of a fight

Ha, I mean, I'm sorry, but no, the Bulls are terrible and would get blown the #### out against any of those guys.
   2763. PJ Martinez Posted: April 23, 2021 at 03:51 PM (#6015089)
Pelton and Lowe discuss this on Lowe's latest podcast, and Lowe argues that Toronto is the one team that could end up in the play-in that the top teams should be somewhat concerned about, which seems right to me.
   2764. Mike A Posted: April 23, 2021 at 06:14 PM (#6015103)
Fair enough, I guess I shouldn't have put the Raptors and Bulls together. It's not like I think the Bulls are particularly good, it's just that the top teams in the East (and to a lesser extent the West) - to quote Shania Twain - don't impress me much. The early playoff match-ups might be closer than expected.

I think there's a lot of potential play-in teams that could scare the top teams: Boston, NYK, Golden St with Curry going off, Miami with Butler, ATL if they ever heal, and Dallas with that good player whose name I can't remember.
   2765. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: April 23, 2021 at 06:35 PM (#6015105)
Porzingis?
   2766. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 23, 2021 at 07:16 PM (#6015108)
Stiggles: Have you been paying attention to Noel in NY? He's been excellent. At times he has some issues with holding or catching the ball, but his rim protection instincts are unreal.

this was the last time i acknowledged nerlens noel's existence:

1684. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: November 21, 2020 at 08:47 PM (#5990597)
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn
Free agent C Nerlens Noel has agreed to a one-year deal with the New York Knicks, sources tell ESPN.
   2767. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 23, 2021 at 07:29 PM (#6015109)
The “LepreCast” will be anchored by ESPN commentators Ryan Ruocco and Richard Jefferson, who will hold forth from a Leprechaun-themed studio at ESPN’s Bristol, CT headquarters. Angélique Roché, the host of a Leprechaun Entertainment podcast, will provide expert Leprechaun analysis.

   2768. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 24, 2021 at 03:47 PM (#6015198)
hinkie died for this...
Ky Carlin @Ky_Carlin
Mike Scott will start in place of Joel Embiid #Sixers

   2769. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 24, 2021 at 04:14 PM (#6015199)
shake down.


...but not out.
   2770. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 24, 2021 at 05:14 PM (#6015205)
Keith Pompey @PompeyOnSixers
Dwight Howard gets a tech.

Keith Pompey @PompeyOnSixers
Doc gets a tech

Keith Pompey @PompeyOnSixers
Tobias Harris just got a tech.

Derek Bodner @DerekBodnerNBA
Dwight Howard entered the game with 14 technical fouls. He picked one up today, which gives him 15. Once he picks up one more he will earn a 1 game suspension. He had a technical foul rescinded earlier this month, otherwise he'd already be at the limit.

   2771. Harlond Posted: April 24, 2021 at 07:05 PM (#6015222)
Yeah, good point. There's probably no perfect way.
I haven't studied the issue and am not aware of any studies, but is there any evidence the lottery discourages teams from tanking?

I think there is a perfect way, but it could never happen: reduce the share of TV money that goes to the owners of the bottom 10 or so teams. Most of these billionaires are penny pinchers.
   2772. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: April 25, 2021 at 12:10 AM (#6015235)
Thibodeau CoTY?
   2773. SteveF Posted: April 25, 2021 at 07:17 AM (#6015240)
Who are the realistic options? Thibs in NY (exceeding expectations), Williams in Phoenix (great record and exceeding expectations), Snyder in Utah (great record, highly thought of coach)...

Some permutation of those 3 guys is my best guess for the top 3. I have no idea who actually deserves it.
   2774. asinwreck Posted: April 25, 2021 at 08:16 AM (#6015243)
I'd be shocked if CoTY wasn't Monty Williams in a landslide. A beloved member of the coaching fraternity who endured personal tragedy and whose team has vastly exceeded expectations this year? He may win it unanimously.
   2775. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: April 25, 2021 at 07:49 PM (#6015334)
I spend a lot of time pondering the "Should Portland just blow it up?" question because I don't think there's a super easy answer.
   2776. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 25, 2021 at 08:04 PM (#6015339)
I spend a lot of time pondering the "Should Portland just blow it up?" question because I don't think there's a super easy answer.


trade machine: who says no?
trade machine: who says no?
trade machine: who says no?
trade machine: who says no?
trade machine: who says no?
   2777. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 25, 2021 at 08:29 PM (#6015342)
Ky Carlin @Ky_Carlin
Ben Simmons is out tomorrow. He’ll miss his 5th straight game with the flu. #Sixers


he's been with kardashians. are we sure it's not syphilis?
   2778. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: April 26, 2021 at 03:14 AM (#6015424)
The big-market Knicks' streak gets all the attention, but two things I just learned: OKC has lost 13 in a row, and the Wizards have somehow won eight straight to vault into the #10 seed in the East.
   2779. jmurph Posted: April 26, 2021 at 08:45 AM (#6015428)
Ky Carlin @Ky_Carlin
Ben Simmons is out tomorrow. He’ll miss his 5th straight game with the flu. #Sixers

I don't want to go all internet doctor here, but is this really a thing? It's only a week, I guess.
   2780. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 26, 2021 at 11:05 AM (#6015451)
I don't want to go all internet doctor here, but is this really a thing? It's only a week, I guess.
he's probably faking it because he wants to retire at the end of the season.
   2781. jmurph Posted: April 26, 2021 at 11:23 AM (#6015456)
I once had the flu and was still able to play 5 consecutive games of 2K, sooooooooooo
   2782. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: April 26, 2021 at 11:28 AM (#6015457)
Have to get $50 to win $10 on Julius Randle to win Most Improved Player. I know betting heavy favorites like that feels completely not-fun so I won't do it, but is there even a 5% chance he doesn't win that award at this point?

I guess if Michael Porter Jr scores 30 points a game the last two weeks? Or somehow the Zion candidacy picks up steam because Knicks go in the tank?
   2783. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 26, 2021 at 11:42 AM (#6015460)

trade machine: who says no?
trade machine: who says no?
trade machine: who says no?
trade machine: who says no?
trade machine: who says no?


George, Burks, Noel, Payton, Gallinari, Snell, Dunn, Collins, Sabonis, McDermott, Joseph, Plumlee, McGruder, & Okafor for McCollum, Anthony, & Covington would be a pretty sweet deal for Portland. Might have to cut a few guys to get under the roster limit though. Does McCollum just timeshare with all the teams? His choice of who he plays for each night? Or does the league decide?
   2784. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 26, 2021 at 12:01 PM (#6015463)
Have to get $50 to win $10 on Julius Randle to win Most Improved Player. I know betting heavy favorites like that feels completely not-fun so I won't do it, but is there even a 5% chance he doesn't win that award at this point?
he hasn't really improved, though...

he's making more 3s, and NYK doesn't have a PG. that's about it.

Season      MP  FG%  3P%  FT%  TRB AST TOV  PTS
2018
-19   30.6 .524 .344 .731  8.7 3.1 2.8 21.4
2019
-20   32.5 .460 .277 .733  9.7 3.1 3.0 19.5
2020
-21   37.5 .462 .416 .805 10.5 6.0 3.5 24.0 

Season     PER  TSASTUSGWS/48 OBPM  BPM
2018
-19   21.0 .600 15.8 27.8  .131  2.1  1.5
2019
-20   17.5 .538 15.8 27.6  .062  0.7 -0.3
2020
-21   20.1 .573 27.1 28.8  .148  3.1  3.9 




chris boucher is a better candidate, imo.
6'4 bruce brown came out of nowhere to become a starting forward (and backup center) on a possible 1-seed.
jaesean tate got plucked out of europe.
   2785. tshipman Posted: April 26, 2021 at 12:46 PM (#6015481)
Most improved player is the most confusing award, IMO.

I would say that Jokic or Embiid would be the guy I would vote for, because going from All-Star to MVP level is the hardest leap in the game, but the award basically never works that way.
   2786. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: April 26, 2021 at 12:53 PM (#6015483)
So much of it is narrative and I think Randle's got that, of course. But going from -0.3 BPM to 3.9 BPM dues seem like a big increase, doesn't it? And 73% FT to 80%. And 15.8% AST to 27.1% AST. He's #3 power forward on RPM right now, last year was closer to 40. That all seems like improvement to me. Zach Lowe and his guest both basically said it was his without much chatter about it on his recent MIP podcast.

I guess the argument against it is fluky shooting and empty assists?

EDIT - The Jokic/Embiid argument does seem like a good one, of course, but yeah it doesn't seem to factor into the actual award voting at all.
   2787. Laser Man Posted: April 26, 2021 at 01:13 PM (#6015492)
Who are the realistic options? Thibs in NY (exceeding expectations), Williams in Phoenix (great record and exceeding expectations), Snyder in Utah (great record, highly thought of coach)...
I think Nate McMillian of the Hawks has moved himself into the conversation at least. The Hawks are 20-7 since McMillian took over, and that's with almost the entire team missing multiple games due to injury - Trae, Collins, Hunter, Capela, Gallo, Snell, Reddish, and Dunn have all missed multiple games since the coaching change, and almost 4 or 5 of them have been out for each game. Overall, the Hawks are 10th in Net Rating for the season, after ranking 28th last year.

Maybe they've been a little lucky in opponent 3P% (34.7%, 3rd best), but I think the team is greatly improved from last year.
   2788. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: April 26, 2021 at 01:51 PM (#6015495)
I'd add to [2786] the ≈66% increase in AST/TOV ratio; if it actually were reducible to "NY has no point guard", that is, an increase in usage and not skill, I'd expect Randle's turnovers to increase apace with his assists. They have not.
   2789. jmurph Posted: April 26, 2021 at 01:53 PM (#6015497)
I think everyone has listed good options for COY. I think Doc will likely get some votes, too, maybe Nash?

But I agree Monty Williams is a lock.
   2790. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: April 26, 2021 at 01:57 PM (#6015500)
   2791. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: April 26, 2021 at 02:17 PM (#6015505)
The NBA is apparently dealing with a COVID-related referee shortage, a season-long issue that's hitting particularly hard at the moment, with 10 refs currently unavailable.

The author reached out to see if any NBA executives were willing to anonymously complain about the quality of refereeing, and wouldn't you know, they were.
   2792. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: April 26, 2021 at 02:29 PM (#6015514)
I guess if Michael Porter Jr scores 30 points a game the last two weeks? Or somehow the Zion candidacy picks up steam because Knicks go in the tank?


Someone on Zach Lowe's podcast (Thorpe, I think) was advocating for Zion for MIP. I think he should be effectively ineligible since he only played 24 games last year (and was still pretty damn good).
   2793. tshipman Posted: April 26, 2021 at 03:06 PM (#6015524)
I would vote for Zion over Randle (but both would be behind Jokic or Embiid). Randle was approximately this good two years ago, just with a different shape to his production. The fact that he had a bad year last year shouldn't make us feel like he improved more.
   2794. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: April 26, 2021 at 03:42 PM (#6015533)
Maybe they've been a little lucky in opponent 3P% (34.7%, 3rd best), but I think the team is greatly improved from last year.


No doubt. Pierce seems like a great guy, but it's hard to deny the improved play under McMillan.
   2795. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 26, 2021 at 04:02 PM (#6015539)
Randle was approximately this good two years ago, just with a different shape to his production. The fact that he had a bad year last year shouldn't make us feel like he improved more.
he's making more 3s, and NYK doesn't have a PG. that's about it.
Are we sure about that? In four seasons, Randle's gone from about half an attempt from the arc per game to over five per game. It's not just that the shape of his production is different, the shape of his offensive game is different not because he's getting lucky, but because he has changed his game. Between his shooting and him finding open shooters, he looks like a player who has made big improvements. I'm biased because I've always loved the guy, but he needs to get more credit than he's getting.
   2796. Mike A Posted: April 26, 2021 at 04:39 PM (#6015546)
No doubt. Pierce seems like a great guy, but it's hard to deny the improved play under McMillan.
The 4th quarter turn-around has been crazy. Under Pierce, the Hawks were 30th in 4th quarter NRtg, having blown numerous leads. Under McMillan, they're 1st at a whopping +15.7. Now, granted, some of that is luck, some is having Bogi/Gallo back, and some is just reversion to the mean. But actually playing Clint Capela in the clutch and having the 4th quarter plan consist of more than 'play hero Trae' has certainly helped. Whatever it is, the Hawks have bought into what McMillan is selling.

I'd still give CoY to Thibodeau. Knicks were projected for 22.5 wins this year and they're on pace for 40. You could make fair arguments for Williams and Snyder who are on pace for 10-11 wins above Vegas, but I still think it's Thibs.
   2797. tshipman Posted: April 26, 2021 at 04:42 PM (#6015548)
Are we sure about that? In four seasons, Randle's gone from about half an attempt from the arc per game to over five per game. It's not just that the shape of his production is different, the shape of his offensive game is different not because he's getting lucky, but because he has changed his game. Between his shooting and him finding open shooters, he looks like a player who has made big improvements. I'm biased because I've always loved the guy, but he needs to get more credit than he's getting.


Yeah, I mean, his game has changed, but not all those changes are positive. He's taking a bunch more midrangers (7.11 midrangers per game, up from 1.5 midrangers two years ago), and he's taking a ton fewer shots at the rim.

For all of his ball dominance, the Knicks are not that much better on offense with him on the court (111.9 vs 111.5).

It works for the Knicks, because they don't have another good offensive creator, but Randle is below average as a driver of NBA offense.
   2798. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 26, 2021 at 05:25 PM (#6015559)
Tom Moore @TomMoorePhilly
#Sixers coach Doc Rivers on 0-4 record last week: 'We did have a lot of guys out, but we didn't play well no matter who's on the floor. We have to get back to our tempo, get to our second options. ... I still expect us to win.'

Derek Bodner @DerekBodnerNBA
Afternoon injury report. All of the following Sixers' players are questionable for tonight:
- Embiid (right shoulder)
- Simmons (illness)
- Green (left hip recovery)
- Harris (right knee recovery)
- Korkmaz (right ankle sprain)
- Reed (health and safety).

   2799. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: April 26, 2021 at 09:58 PM (#6015606)
My apologies to fans of the Knicks and Randle for bringing him up today. I ended the streak.
   2800. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 26, 2021 at 10:35 PM (#6015615)
Ky Carlin @Ky_Carlin
Dwight Howard: “If there are any refs listening, I love you. I apologize for whatever it was. Let’s hug. Let’s meditate.” #Sixers

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