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Friday, December 18, 2020

NBA 2020 Season kick-off thread

I estimate it would take 10-12 Primates to beat James Harden in a wing eating contest.

Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: December 18, 2020 at 02:28 PM | 3341 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: best shape of his life, nba, off-topic

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   3201. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: May 16, 2021 at 10:32 AM (#6019020)
Flip
   3202. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 16, 2021 at 10:55 AM (#6019022)
Anecdotally it does seem a number of three and four year guys picked in low first to second develop into rotation guys so I have always wondered if the late pick people are overvaluing a small chance of stardom and undervaluing a rotation guy. Especially since raw younger guys don’t often develop within the rookie contract timeframe. But does anyone know if that’s really true?


I don't know it is true, but it makes sense. In a salary cap and roster limited sport the way to get value is to have players who are being underpaid. One solid way to do that is to draft high variance players and if they hit you get a ton of value while they are still on low contracts. Older players are going to tend to be lower variance, so on average they will likely end up better but even so might accumulate less value in aggregate (because the few high variance players that hit accumulate a ton of value, while the busts can be cycled through so their downside is less than the upside.

I am not saying this is the optimal strategy, certainly not in all cases. I tend towards being a contrarian, so when the league zigs I want my team to zag and not follow along. But I think it is at least a logical theory for drafting.
   3203. PJ Martinez Posted: May 16, 2021 at 01:10 PM (#6019029)
Per Malika Andrews: "Kevin Durant, James Harden, Blake Griffin and Kyrie Irving are all available for today’s game against Cleveland. With a win, the Nets secure the No. 2 seed in the East."
   3204. tshipman Posted: May 16, 2021 at 02:51 PM (#6019038)
The bust rate is basically the same for every player type. Upperclassmen, underclassmen, Euros.

However, the all-star rate is much higher for guys who come out early. That's why it tends to be important to take those guys.
   3205. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: May 16, 2021 at 02:59 PM (#6019041)
Is it me, or does the 2021 NBA HOF class lack a certain pizzazz? Especially after a class with Kobe, KG, and Duncan?
   3206. tshipman Posted: May 16, 2021 at 03:57 PM (#6019050)
Washington finishes 34-38 and in the 8th seed.

Russell Westbrook: 22.2/11.5/11.8, on 50.8% (!) TS%, and a +0.7 net rating
John Wall: 20.6/3.2/6.9, on 50.3% TS% (!!) and a +2.3 net rating (on a worse team to be fair).

Who won the trade?
   3207. . . . . . . Posted: May 16, 2021 at 04:03 PM (#6019051)
The bust rate is basically the same for every player type. Upperclassmen, underclassmen, Euros.

However, the all-star rate is much higher for guys who come out early. That's why it tends to be important to take those guys.


So I haven't looked at this for the NBA, but for the NFL, if you take a pool of draft prospects that are labelled "safe", and compare it with a group of draft prospects labelled "boom/bust" (or equivalent), picking the safe guys is a much, much better approach. But that's driven by the NFL ruleset, where it is all about extracting max value ASAP while the guy is on the rookie contract (and having a clear answer as to whether to pick up the fifth year on your top picks before year 4). No idea whether it ports to the NBA.

But a "safe" player is a player type that scouts can identify that transcends age/background. You can have boom/bust seniors and safe freshmen.
   3208. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 16, 2021 at 06:12 PM (#6019055)
The bust rate is basically the same for every player type. Upperclassmen, underclassmen, Euros.

However, the all-star rate is much higher for guys who come out early. That's why it tends to be important to take those guys.

sure, but how much of that all star rate is driven by players picked in the top 5?

if you're not separating that out, the lebrons and KDs of the world, the ones that most teams have no chance at getting, swamp everyone else.
Is it me, or does the 2021 NBA HOF class lack a certain pizzazz? Especially after a class with Kobe, KG, and Duncan?
they can't all be winners.
   3209. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 16, 2021 at 07:13 PM (#6019056)
Keith Pompey @PompeyOnSixers
#Sixers starters: George Hill, Furkan Korkmaz, Dwight Howard, Shake Milton and Tyrese Maxey
   3210. tshipman Posted: May 16, 2021 at 07:43 PM (#6019058)
Steph averaged 13.9 3p attempts per game after the allstar break on 43% shooting. There is absolutely no one else on this Warriors team that scares a defense.

How many more threes could he reasonably get up while maintaining a shooting percentage greater than league average?
   3211. asinwreck Posted: May 16, 2021 at 08:06 PM (#6019060)
   3212. asinwreck Posted: May 16, 2021 at 11:09 PM (#6019066)
LeBron just walked off the court after hurting his right foot and/or ankle.
   3213. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: May 17, 2021 at 12:11 AM (#6019073)
The bust rate is basically the same for every player type. Upperclassmen, underclassmen, Euros.

However, the all-star rate is much higher for guys who come out early. That's why it tends to be important to take those guys.


Zach LaVine was an all-star. Does that make it a good pick? He got expensive before he was an all-star, and has never been worth more than his contract.

The problem with drafting a young guy is that unless they go Giannis or whatever, they're never actually an asset -- they're not good their first couple years and then if they do happen to get good you have to pay them what they're worth in RFA (or just lose them). Whereas with the older guys, there's at least a decent chance that they outplay their rookie scale contract.

So, like, the younger guys have a better chance of being a supermax player, which is worth it, but otherwise it's pretty rare you're getting any surplus value with the pick (and much more likely to get no meaningful value over that rookie scale contract -- their age 23 season will already be expensive.)
   3214. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: May 17, 2021 at 12:32 AM (#6019074)
3212

People are not freaking out about the ankle, but Vogel is taking some crap since Portland was up 20 when it happened. We'll know soon enough whether it matters. Lakers and Clippers are in opposite brackets; some fans crowing that Denver tanked the game to avoid Lakers in Rd1. The Lakers got themselves into this in large part by losing the Sacramento and Toronto games at home.

NBA gets LAL/GSW play-in and there will be some regional interest in WAS/BOS, but I think the league would probably rather just have James, Curry, Westbrook and Boston in postseason. Indiana (34-38) playing Charlotte (33-39) in a 9/10 game would not seem to have great appeal, and Memphis being in a play-in against 33-39 San Antonio instead of being a low lottery team seems sort of lame as well. Maybe Memphis wins twice and gets in, but then they are just an 8 seed and out of the lottery. So I am not sold on the play-in.

Like I said, people who like the idea of a NBA with no great teams and several good ones who can win should like these playoffs. There is also a mix of Bling and Small market contenders, which I think is good.
   3215. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: May 17, 2021 at 12:41 AM (#6019075)
Kamenetzky Brothers
@KamBrothers
LeBron just said that his career has been like the Godfather trilogy. Thankfully, his part III has been way more successful than the Godfather's. AK
   3216. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 17, 2021 at 12:53 AM (#6019076)
LeBron just walked off the court after hurting his right foot and/or ankle

get this man a wheelchair and/or a fresh pair of underwear.
   3217. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: May 17, 2021 at 08:46 AM (#6019083)
Right now the Nets are -105 to win the East at BetOnline. Part of me thinks they are going to win the East going like 12-2 or something and we'll look back on this and say it was completely obvious and those odds were way too low. (I'm probably not putting my money where my mouth is. Just putting this out there on the Internet so I can look back with regret.)
   3218. spivey 2 Posted: May 17, 2021 at 08:50 AM (#6019084)
It does seem like Denver tanked against Portland. Jokic played, but they didn't play hard and played pretty limited minutes. But, on top of the Lakers being better than Portland so wanting to avoid them, Portland had much more to gain with the 6th seed vs. the play-in, and Denver was already locked into their seed. I don't think it's particularly egregious, as far as late season tanking goes.

A lot of good first round matchups in the West. Atlanta/Knicks should be fun and even, and Milwaukee/Miami will be interesting. Golden State and the Lakers would two very interesting matchups for Utah and Phoenix, if that's how it shakes out.
   3219. spivey 2 Posted: May 17, 2021 at 09:05 AM (#6019086)
Milwaukee's matched up pretty well with Brooklyn in the regular season, and I think in all of those games at least 2 of the big 3 played.

Brooklyn seems like their big 3 will all be playing in the playoffs, but a couple of them are coming off of injuries and something like a hamstring injury that Harden can easily re-appear. His fitness probably also isn't 100% coming into the playoffs, and that's been a concern for him in playoffs anyways, at least for me. Nash isn't playoff tested and I still have some questions about how that group will handle playoff adversity if it comes.

They should be the favorites, but I wouldn't go beyond -105, certainly. That's already a prohibitive favorite.
   3220. jmurph Posted: May 17, 2021 at 11:00 AM (#6019102)
I wasn't sure it would end up this way but, I agree with spivey, there are a lot of good matchups coming. Dallas/Clippers should be fun, obviously whoever the Lakers get, Portland/Denver should be entertaining, Bucks/Heat should be good.
   3221. jmurph Posted: May 17, 2021 at 12:25 PM (#6019108)
Is it me, or does the 2021 NBA HOF class lack a certain pizzazz? Especially after a class with Kobe, KG, and Duncan?

If I'm scanning the list correctly, the NBA guys going in as players are Bosh, Pierce, Ben Wallace, and Webber?

Yeah, I'm gonna say that's not just you.
   3222. GregD Posted: May 17, 2021 at 12:48 PM (#6019110)
Bosh maybe had an argument to be one of the top ten guys in the league once? Maybe twice?

What’s the mlb equivalent of his HoF case? Bernie Williams? That’s probably unfair.

Webber and Pierce seem like easy calls if not top tier guys.

Wallace....I always like when very unusual players get recognition. Better him than some guy who shot every time and didn’t make his team better
   3223. jmurph Posted: May 17, 2021 at 12:56 PM (#6019112)
Bosh maybe had an argument to be one of the top ten guys in the league once? Maybe twice?

What’s the mlb equivalent of his HoF case? Bernie Williams? That’s probably unfair.

Webber and Pierce seem like easy calls if not top tier guys.

Yeah it's not so much whether they deserve it or not, it's just, Pierce and Webber are not exactly beloved guys. Probably basically no national fan base at this point (I'm not even certain Webber has a local fan base?). Bosh is I think seen (largely incorrectly, but still) by non-hardcore fans as a distant 3rd banana in Miami. I don't know, I just can't imagine too much celebration about any of those three.
   3224. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 17, 2021 at 01:19 PM (#6019115)
The 24-year-old [matisse thybulle] ranks tied for third in the league in total steals and 19th in total blocks; he’s blocked more shots than Embiid, for God’s sake. Thybulle has snared a steal on 3.9 percent of Sixers opponents’ offensive possessions, and has blocked a shot on 4.9 percent; the only other players to post rates that high for a full season are freaking David Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon
   3225. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: May 17, 2021 at 01:33 PM (#6019118)
I think a lot of Boston fans will be into Pierce getting in--ditto Detroit fans with Wallace. Bryant/Garnett/Duncan was an unusually potent grouping, magnified by the emotional backdrop of Bryant's death.

Brooklyn will be a good test of my "count the superstars" paradigm. They can certainly win it, but I am skeptical. Durant is 32, Harden is 31, both have health concerns, and there are the concerns about the D.
   3226. DCA Posted: May 17, 2021 at 10:16 PM (#6019311)
Russell Westbrook: 22.2/11.5/11.8, on 50.8% (!) TS%, and a +0.7 net rating
John Wall: 20.6/3.2/6.9, on 50.3% TS% (!!) and a +2.3 net rating (on a worse team to be fair).

Who won the trade?


Westbook. Puts up the crazy numbers - seriously, that's 22/12/12! - and gets to be in the playoffs. Neither of those things happen in Houston, I think.
   3227. Thok Posted: May 18, 2021 at 12:38 AM (#6019341)
Bosh actually has the most all-star game appearances of this class, and more then Webber and Wallace combined. The list of third bananas on teams as successful as the Heatles is mostly filled with Hall of Famers.
   3228. asinwreck Posted: May 18, 2021 at 07:36 AM (#6019350)
I'm glad Kukoč got in. Now that they're in the Hall together, maybe someone will do a docudrama series following the careers of Sabonis, Marčiulionis, and Kukoč between 1985-2005.
   3229. Rally Posted: May 18, 2021 at 09:39 AM (#6019362)
In his induction, I’d like to see Ben Wallace repeat his motivational speech before the 2004 finals:

Piston: The Lakers are too many.
BW: Sons of Detroit,
I am Benjamin Wallace...
Piston: Benjamin Wallace
is seven feet tall (including his fro).
BW: Yes, I've heard.
Blocks shots by the hundreds,
and if he were here,
he'd consume the Lakers with fireballs from his eyes
and bolts of lightning from his arse < laughter >
I AM Benjamin Wallace,
and I see a whole army of my countrymen
here in defiance of tyranny.
You've come to fight as free men,
and free men you are.
What will you do with that freedom?
Will you fight?
Piston: Against Shaq? No, we will run, and we will live.
BW: Aye, fight and you may die.
Run, and you'll live... at least a while.
And dying in your beds many years from now,
would you be willing to trade all the days,
from this day to that,
for one chance,
just one chance,
to come back here and tell our enemies
that they may take our lives,
but they'll never take our Championship Trophy!!!
   3230. jmurph Posted: May 18, 2021 at 09:57 AM (#6019366)
I'm so absolutely certain the Celtics will lose tonight but win the 8th place game in order to set up an absolute roasting from the Sixers and I would really like to fast forward through the next couple of weeks.
   3231. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: May 18, 2021 at 10:53 AM (#6019381)
Russell Westbrook: 22.2/11.5/11.8, on 50.8% (!) TS%, and a +0.7 net rating
John Wall: 20.6/3.2/6.9, on 50.3% TS% (!!) and a +2.3 net rating (on a worse team to be fair).

Who won the trade?

Westbook. Puts up the crazy numbers - seriously, that's 22/12/12! - and gets to be in the playoffs. Neither of those things happen in Houston, I think.


It was a win-win, because Wall put up a (-1) Win Share on a tanking team.
   3232. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: May 18, 2021 at 10:56 AM (#6019382)
I'm so absolutely certain the Celtics will lose tonight but win the 8th place game in order to set up an absolute roasting from the Sixers and I would really like to fast forward through the next couple of weeks.


The schadenfraude in me would love to see Gardenvariety Handkerchief put up 35 against the Celtics, but I think he's still out with an injury.
   3233. Kurt Posted: May 18, 2021 at 12:18 PM (#6019401)
Russell Westbrook: 22.2/11.5/11.8, on 50.8% (!) TS%, and a +0.7 net rating
John Wall: 20.6/3.2/6.9, on 50.3% TS% (!!) and a +2.3 net rating (on a worse team to be fair).

Who won the trade?

Westbook. Puts up the crazy numbers - seriously, that's 22/12/12! - and gets to be in the playoffs. Neither of those things happen in Houston, I think.

-----------

It was a win-win, because Wall put up a (-1) Win Share on a tanking team.


I have a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach that the biggest winner of the trade is going to end up being Scott Brooks.
   3234. asinwreck Posted: May 18, 2021 at 01:28 PM (#6019413)
@MarcJSpears
Phoenix Suns Head Coach Monty Williams is the 2021 recipient of the Michael H. Goldberg NBCA Coach of the Year Award, the National Basketball Coaches Association announced today.
   3235. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: May 18, 2021 at 01:35 PM (#6019415)
I'm so absolutely certain the Celtics will lose tonight but win the 8th place game in order to set up an absolute roasting from the Sixers and I would really like to fast forward through the next couple of weeks.


Fanboy fatalism about a franchise with a ton of championships? That's my side of the street, dude.
   3236. jmurph Posted: May 18, 2021 at 01:48 PM (#6019418)
Your team's not getting roasted in the first round, I don't think! I could see them losing two flukish play-in games more easily than losing 4 out of 7.
   3237. asinwreck Posted: May 18, 2021 at 02:07 PM (#6019421)


Fanboy fatalism about a franchise with a ton of championships? That's my side of the street, dude.

Bulls fan waves as quarter-century-old banners fade with sun damage.
   3238. Rally Posted: May 18, 2021 at 03:06 PM (#6019424)
Lakers will probably, more likely than not, get past the play in series.

But I could see this happening:

Lakers and Warrors fight a close battle. LeBron and AD look healthy and in top form, but GSW hangs in there because Curry is shooting the lights out. In 4th quarter, since nobody else can stop him, LeBron guards Curry. Curry shows the wiggle, LeBron tweaks his ankle trying to stick with him, the 3 goes in, and the Lakers lose. On Friday, LeBron can’t go and the Lakers drop the 8 seed game.
   3239. aberg Posted: May 18, 2021 at 04:01 PM (#6019434)
Yeah it's not so much whether they deserve it or not, it's just, Pierce and Webber are not exactly beloved guys. Probably basically no national fan base at this point (I'm not even certain Webber has a local fan base?). Bosh is I think seen (largely incorrectly, but still) by non-hardcore fans as a distant 3rd banana in Miami. I don't know, I just can't imagine too much celebration about any of those three.


That's not fair. Webber remains beloved by both Kings fans.
   3240. SteveF Posted: May 18, 2021 at 04:25 PM (#6019439)
I'll tee one up...

Marv Albert is retiring after he does the ECF this year.
   3241. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: May 18, 2021 at 04:30 PM (#6019440)
Occasional lurker and casual basketball fan, checking in to say: thanks for this fantastic thread and Go Wizards.
   3242. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: May 18, 2021 at 06:53 PM (#6019484)
Anyone have Doug McDermott as play-in Superman? Not me.
   3243. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 18, 2021 at 07:02 PM (#6019488)
Kwame Brown chose violence and chaos today.
pic.twitter.com/q83ZaTn0Px

— (@Keli__Kelz) May 17, 2021
Kwame Brown talks about how he dropped 82 points with Kobe.
pic.twitter.com/X95fszdsvd

— NBA Retweet (@RTNBA) May 18, 2021
   3244. SteveF Posted: May 18, 2021 at 07:11 PM (#6019491)
Who is he addressing? Matt Barnes? I don't even know the origin of the beef. I'm old and confused.
   3245. tshipman Posted: May 18, 2021 at 10:33 PM (#6019543)
Brad Stevens picked the right time to bust out his magic blue eye 3p defense. Wizards are down by 13 due to being an astonishing 1-13 from the 3p line.
   3246. SteveF Posted: May 18, 2021 at 11:19 PM (#6019554)
It helps that Westbrook took some of those and Beal is obviously gimpy.

Nets in 3.
   3247. jmurph Posted: May 19, 2021 at 07:41 AM (#6019578)
Double post, somehow. That's a new one.
   3248. jmurph Posted: May 19, 2021 at 07:46 AM (#6019579)
Boston did not play very well and are still not good (breaking news!). In addition to the terrible 3 pt shooting from the Wiz, I thought the Celtics also got a pretty favorable whistle. Luckily Westbrook was horrendous and Bertans continues to be a guy in the league who makes quite a bit of money for... reasons.

I've decided the dread of losing to the Nets is less than the dread of losing to the Sixers, so this is my preferred outcome, I guess? Blurgh.
   3249. spivey 2 Posted: May 19, 2021 at 08:19 AM (#6019581)
You know it's the playoffs because Jason Tatum is way more shooting foul calls than he ever gets in the regular season.
   3250. Al Peterson Posted: May 19, 2021 at 09:22 AM (#6019590)
Wiz...where to start. With Westbrook spent from dragging this team to the play-in finish line at the end of the regular season & Beal limited with the injury you needed someone to step up. Bertans - the one trick pony was not in fine form. The three headed monster of Len/Gafford/Lopez - combined 22pts/10rebs which seems fine until you realize it took 20 FGA to get there and Celtics were playing Tristan Thompson 30 minutes as their rim protection.

Feel the Pacers game will be more of the same: Russ and Ish Smith throwing their body into contact, maybe getting some home whistles. Bertans trying to catch fire. Beal doing what he can, mostly volume shooting with his mobility.
   3251. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: May 19, 2021 at 10:10 AM (#6019601)
Bertans seems grossly overpaid to me, but here are some players that are within $500K of his $15M salary:

Luke Babbitt
Marcus Morris
Cody Zeller

There are at least three players making more who haven't played this year (Chandler Parsons $25M, Allen Crabbe $18.5M, Mozgov $16.7M). Mozgov hasn't played since 2018. Nice work if you can get it.
   3252. spivey 2 Posted: May 19, 2021 at 10:17 AM (#6019604)
Bertans is one of the best shooters in the NBA and tends to do pretty well in at least +/- and RPM. I haven't watched a ton of his games recently, but he's always struck me as just a guy on defense. Not good, but not an awful sieve, either. Of course somewhat limited in which positions he can guard, which I think tends to be a bit more of a concern in the playoffs. I guess long story short, I think he's fine on that contract.
   3253. tshipman Posted: May 19, 2021 at 10:35 AM (#6019610)
Any guy who is primarily in the league because of shooting is going to look bad when he goes 0-7 from 3.
   3254. jmurph Posted: May 19, 2021 at 11:20 AM (#6019627)
Bertans for the Wiz is a sieve, maybe Pop did a better job of hiding him ("maybe Pop is a better coach than Scott Brooks," this is the kind of cogent analysis you can't get just anywhere). He's just a guy, this is not a new opinion for me, I don't get him at all.
   3255. tshipman Posted: May 19, 2021 at 12:58 PM (#6019650)
He's just a guy, this is not a new opinion for me, I don't get him at all.


Here's the list of guys taller than 6'8 with a career > 40% 3p percentage.

Bertans, Davis

   3256. jmurph Posted: May 19, 2021 at 01:21 PM (#6019655)
That's not uninteresting, but he's also a career 8.6 ppg scorer because of all the many other things he can't do at all.
   3257. Al Peterson Posted: May 19, 2021 at 01:51 PM (#6019660)
Here's the list of guys taller than 6'8 with a career > 40% 3p percentage.

Bertans, Davis


...and Bertans rim protects and rebounds like he's 6'7". Davis has his place in the NBA but stretching him out over more than 25 minutes per game is a recipe I don't want to taste.
   3258. Rally Posted: May 19, 2021 at 01:55 PM (#6019662)
I agree Bertans is a useful player. But not one worth 15 million a year. If I had to pay more than about 5-8m, I’d look for someone else to fill the role.
   3259. jmurph Posted: May 19, 2021 at 02:02 PM (#6019666)
Seth Curry is maybe literally the greatest shooter in league history, can do more with the ball than Bertans even dreams of doing, and is probably a slightly below average player, overall? Makes about half what Bertans does per season.

(EDIT: Steph is the greatest shooter in league history, I think, given the volume and difficulty, etc. I just mean 3pt%.)
   3260. Al Peterson Posted: May 19, 2021 at 02:05 PM (#6019668)
Wizards were in a tough spot with Bertans. They had to overpay to have anyone stick around with the Wiz given their franchise success and current stature. He got hot beginning of 2019-20 and front office bought into philosophy that we're going to outscore teams to win. Bertans fits that narrative, defense be damned. Signing for 5 years though...I guess the overpay included more years.
   3261. spivey 2 Posted: May 19, 2021 at 02:07 PM (#6019669)
Seth Curry is one of the most underpaid and underrated players in the NBA imo.
   3262. tshipman Posted: May 19, 2021 at 02:13 PM (#6019671)
Seth Curry is maybe literally the greatest shooter in league history, can do more with the ball than Bertans even dreams of doing, and is probably a slightly below average player, overall? Makes about half what Bertans does per season.


Bertans has been a positive player by +/- every year since his rookie year.

Two points:
1. You can play Curry and Bertans at the same time and not get killed on defense. It's hard to play Seth with other guys who can get up shots like that. Like an all Curry backcourt probably is too short to play.
2. Bertans actually gets up *more* shots than Seth. He gets off 10 3pers per 36 min. Not many guys can do that! Davis Bertans gets up more shots per minute than Duncan Robinson, Danny Green, and Fred Van Vleet. Plus, you don't have to work as hard to get him the shots because he is *tall*.

   3263. jmurph Posted: May 19, 2021 at 02:34 PM (#6019683)
I think that per 36 numbers for guys who aren't good enough to be on the court that much are pretty misleading. Bertans took 8.4 actual FGs per game this year, and was a well below average player. I mean it's interesting that he was +6.4 net on/off! Ish Smith was +5.7 on the same team, and he's not any good either.
   3264. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: May 19, 2021 at 02:44 PM (#6019688)
I agree Bertans is a useful player. But not one worth 15 million a year. If I had to pay more than about 5-8m, I’d look for someone else to fill the role.


This is where I am. Maybe in the real world that means I'd never be able to sign anyone.



   3265. tshipman Posted: May 19, 2021 at 02:53 PM (#6019692)
I think that per 36 numbers for guys who aren't good enough to be on the court that much are pretty misleading. Bertans took 8.4 actual FGs per game this year, and was a well below average player.


I think I disagree with the second part of that. He's pretty clearly better than Hachimura.

I don't think that the idea that Scott Brooks is utilizing talent suboptimally is a controversial opinion.

I agree Bertans is a useful player. But not one worth 15 million a year.


I agree with this, because I think he's worth more than 20 mm/year.
   3266. jmurph Posted: May 19, 2021 at 02:56 PM (#6019694)
I don't think that the idea that Scott Brooks is utilizing talent suboptimally is a controversial opinion.

Ha. Extremely fair.

   3267. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 19, 2021 at 03:15 PM (#6019698)
IMO (not worth much) Bertans is not a problem contract at what he is currently making. And as a Wolves fan, I know problem contracts. ;)
   3268. Jtsports01 Posted: May 19, 2021 at 05:17 PM (#6019738)
looking for gambling help, is it crazy that the Nuggets are underdogs vs Portland?
   3269. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 19, 2021 at 05:32 PM (#6019741)
looking for gambling help, is it crazy that the Nuggets are underdogs vs Portland?
no.

POR can beat anyone when their shooters go off.
   3270. tshipman Posted: May 19, 2021 at 05:43 PM (#6019743)
looking for gambling help, is it crazy that the Nuggets are underdogs vs Portland?


Yes, that is absolutely crazy to me. Like an individual game, or a series?
   3271. SteveF Posted: May 19, 2021 at 05:51 PM (#6019744)
Lillard PnR abusing Jokic, Jokic shooting 3s (Nurkic and Kanter aren't comfortable guarding out there), MPJ being guarded by Powell (blech), Portland's horrific bench defense, and Denver's horrific bench scoring seem like some of the larger factors.

If I were betting I'd probably try betting the overs if the number is right.

I think the series is pretty close to a pick 'em, but I'm lower on Denver than most from what I've seen.
   3272. Jtsports01 Posted: May 19, 2021 at 06:49 PM (#6019759)
Portland is favored to win the series, -125. Denver is +105 to win the series.

Denver was +5pt differential for the season, Portland +1.8. Seems like the emergence of Porter and addition of Gordan is bigger then the loss of Murray.
   3273. tshipman Posted: May 19, 2021 at 06:58 PM (#6019761)
I don't bet on sports, but that seems like easy money if you have an odds on bet like that.
   3274. DCA Posted: May 19, 2021 at 08:29 PM (#6019779)
I was ready to bury the Spurs at the end of the first quarter. And just 5 minutes later, we have a game.
   3275. spivey 2 Posted: May 19, 2021 at 10:07 PM (#6019806)
DeRozan had an awful night. I admire the courage he has to speak up on mental health. But I don't think he's a guy who helps you win, and I'm very surprised that the Spurs brought him in a few years back.
   3276. smileyy Posted: May 19, 2021 at 10:25 PM (#6019821)
DeRozan seems like the kind of guy who takes quite of bit of shots on a slightly-under .500 team.
   3277. spivey 2 Posted: May 19, 2021 at 10:26 PM (#6019822)
This Golden State/Lakers game is very spicy so far. Golden State is making a lot of shots, which whatever. But the Lakers are not impressing me with their energy or ability to run an offense. Though they finally just had a good LeBron post on a switch and kick the ball around the perimeter to get an open corner 3. I feel like that was just about the first thing I saw worth a damn.
   3278. SteveF Posted: May 19, 2021 at 11:14 PM (#6019843)
You just have to laugh when Curry nails one like that.
   3279. tshipman Posted: May 19, 2021 at 11:15 PM (#6019844)
LeBron 1/7, AD 2/12.

Tough to win too many halves when you have lines like that from your two big guys.
   3280. PJ Martinez Posted: May 19, 2021 at 11:22 PM (#6019847)
What would a better shooter than Steph Curry even look like? Watching the NBA in the nineties, I'm not sure I could have imagined a player like him. It's like NBA Jam come to life and he plays like he's always on fire.
   3281. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: May 19, 2021 at 11:47 PM (#6019849)
The Lakers closed in a rush, but Curry drawing that foul really slammed the breaks on the comeback.
   3282. tshipman Posted: May 19, 2021 at 11:59 PM (#6019852)
What would a better shooter than Steph Curry even look like? Watching the NBA in the nineties, I'm not sure I could have imagined a player like him. It's like NBA Jam come to life and he plays like he's always on fire.


KCP is even doing a pretty good job on him.
   3283. tshipman Posted: May 20, 2021 at 12:06 AM (#6019853)
LeBron 1/7, AD 2/12.


In the second half so far, LeBron is 4/6 and AD is 4/7, which goes a long way to explaining the come back.

More Caruso has helped, as well.
   3284. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: May 20, 2021 at 12:06 AM (#6019854)
Lakers take the lead. They're doing real work on Steph.
   3285. tshipman Posted: May 20, 2021 at 12:15 AM (#6019855)
It's been years since Curry came into a game this early in the 4th quarter.
   3286. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: May 20, 2021 at 12:23 AM (#6019857)
Playoff Wiggins.
   3287. SteveF Posted: May 20, 2021 at 12:23 AM (#6019858)
You have to blitz Curry, but the dude just knows what to do.

If GS had just 1 more decent player they'd be so dangerous.
   3288. tshipman Posted: May 20, 2021 at 12:26 AM (#6019859)
Schroder is killing the Lakers. Some team is going to give him money in the offseason and regret it. He is not a winning player.
   3289. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: May 20, 2021 at 12:30 AM (#6019860)
Co-sign 3288. He's been good this season, but this game highlights everything about Schroder that had me down on him before the season.
   3290. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 20, 2021 at 12:31 AM (#6019861)
that is clearly a flagrant foul


you can see the exact moment where green chooses not to go after the ball because he's not gonna get there, and decides to just take lebron out instead.
   3291. tshipman Posted: May 20, 2021 at 12:32 AM (#6019862)
that is clearly a flagrant foul


I have no idea what a flagrant is any more, and I don't think the refs do either.
   3292. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 20, 2021 at 12:34 AM (#6019863)
it's only been 14 seconds, and i already can't wait for the last two minute report.
   3293. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 20, 2021 at 12:36 AM (#6019864)
lebron shuttlesworth out here.
   3294. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: May 20, 2021 at 12:37 AM (#6019865)
He's so The King.
   3295. tshipman Posted: May 20, 2021 at 12:39 AM (#6019866)
I wonder what the ratings for this game are. Huge success for Adam Silver, I think.
   3296. SteveF Posted: May 20, 2021 at 12:39 AM (#6019867)
Utah breathes a sigh of relief.
   3297. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: May 20, 2021 at 12:46 AM (#6019868)
Christopher Crawford
@Crawford_MILB

Michael Jordan never won a play-in game.
   3298. smileyy Posted: May 20, 2021 at 01:19 AM (#6019871)
By execution, I think that foul was just over the line of being a flagrant. By intent, well, you nailed it here:

you can see the exact moment where green chooses not to go after the ball because he's not gonna get there, and decides to just take lebron out instead.
   3299. smileyy Posted: May 20, 2021 at 01:20 AM (#6019872)
LeBron hit that shot basically with one eye.
   3300. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: May 20, 2021 at 01:37 AM (#6019874)
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