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Friday, December 18, 2020
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Yeah, but I think the other play-in games played so far would be more the norm for this set-up. Also, this game, as exciting as it was, was not an elimination game since the loser gets a home game against Memphis and can still get in.
So Chris Paul leads PHX to an unexpectedly great season...and now draws James and Davis in a 2/7. PHX can certainly win the series, but the Lakers are likely the most dangerous 7 seed in the history of the 16-team set-up.
I pointed out to a buddy today that GS was 15-5 over their last 20; they have been one of the better teams in the NBA over the last several weeks. With the puffed-up blowfish vibe that much of our fanbase has from having a wall full of banners and LeBron James, I think most Lakers fans were more worried about this game than they are about Phoenix, Denver, or Portland. I have already gotten two texts from people talking about a Hallway Series in the WCF.
Schroder: I was not that big on the signing, and yes, he was not good tonight.
That last 3 was crazy. LeBron beat Curry by being Curry for 1 play.
I don't even live in the Eastern timezone, but still I can't stay up until 11:30-midnight every single night in the playoffs.
That shot by LeBron was ridiculous. It's funny to think back there was a long part of his career where he was thought of as not clutch.
It was always kinda wrong though, right? I guess you can't be "clutch" and a superstar until you win a title.
---
Going back to the last page, I'm with those who say it's hard to believe Portland is favored over Denver. Blazers were 29th in DRtg this year; they're a poor version of the Nets without the multiple stars.
It can still happen, but would now need the Warriors to at least beat Memphis and then win a couple games against Utah.
Then you can dream on Klay coming back, Wiseman developing into a useful rotation piece (I mean even JaVale was useful by the time he got to the Warriors) and whatever you can get for Oubre and potentially Minny's lottery pick in a loaded draft.
On the other hand, deserved credit to Lebron for having such a big impact on the game without being near full health. And credit to AD for staying locked in and making big offensive plays when needed in the second half. The Lakers are going to need both of those two to be at their A+ best to get very far. I don't think their supporting cast is as strong as last year. Vogel had a great game. His willingness to go away from the non-AD bigs was perfect. He balanced Lebron's minutes to keep him within shouting distance of the cap they put on him. He dusted off Matthews at the right time to open up some room on offense, and then he had the guts to bench Schroder when they needed both Caruso and Matthews defensively.
The closing 5 of LeBron, Davis, Matthews, Caruso and KCP is as good or better than last year, but there are too many charity minutes given to guys like Drummond and Schroder.
Lakers: I agree with sentences 1 and 3; not sure about 2. I tend to think that role players are more interchangeable than people who wonk out think they are, and like I have said a few times, both James and Davis put up 30 PERs in post-season last year, and that is rare, even on a champion. Not directed at berg, and Caruso and Matthews did do a nice job last night, but when James and Davis were out, a lot of people in Lakerland were talking about how much those two guys sucked. Last night, everybody loved them again. Role players with one or two skills and "glue guys" don't matter much when you don't have the stars. Also, Davis is and has been very upfront about the fact he is willing to log big minutes at the 5 in tough playoff games but wants traditional 5s around for the seasonal grind so I am not sure that the changes at the 5 will matter all that much, but we will see.
As to role players, some Lakers fans are really worried about not having "playoff Rondo" and Schroder was not good last night, so I will be interested to see how that plays out.
Vogel: He is a good defensive coach and he gets along with the Big Dogs. James runs the O, so it has been working.
Golden State: If Thompson can come back, they will be dangerous. I also wouldn't think that losing an exciting game on the road on a 30-footer by James would affect ownership's confidence, but I don't know.
I might be guilty of glorifying their supporting cast from last year. Getting 40% on 3s and 7 APG from Rondo in the playoffs isn't to be expected, but it happened, so getting to the same level would require Caruso or Schroder to play that well, which is obviously on guarantee. The overall quality of the bigs is probably a push. If they run into Jokic again, Gasol can probably give him fits in a different but equally effective way to what Howard did last year. Matthews ≈ Green. Kuz might be a slightly better version of himself. But like I said before, that group won with Lebron and Davis playing as well as they can play. Recent evidence suggests they're not close to that now.
Yeah, if their playoff PERs are in the 25-27 range, probably someone will put the Lakers out. That noted, I think they match up well with Phoenix and with Denver, who I think will be their second-round opponent if they get there. So I could see them slogging through two long series and winning than losing to the Clippers or Jazz.
That noted, James is the guy, along with Jordan back in his time, when if his team is close to the opponent in overall talent, then I don't want to bet against him.
They probably need one of the role players to get hot like that to win this year. As for last season though, playoff Rondo was nice to have but mostly a luxury, a bonus. They weren't pushed in any of their playoff series and if Rondo had played like crap they probably would still have won.
Yeah I know the thread has talked about this a few times before, and I know there's conversations to be had about the context of the East, but man, it's really just outrageous how many times he's been there.
***
Rondo was not actually that good last year, and Caruso was significantly better. Rondo provided offense, but was awful on defense and compromised everything the Lakers were trying to do defensively.
Also, Warriors-Lakers drew 5.6 million sets of eyeballs, more than twice the 2.2 million that Memphis-San Antonio got.
3.5 joel embiid technical fouls in the first round
I would probably go the other way on those two series, but Hollinger will look pretty smarty pants if those picks pan out.
Wiggins averaged 20 ppg on 41/49/77 percent shooting in the last 36 games he played this year and had a really good play-in game. He was actually playing pretty good defense on LBJ, especially in the first half of the game. Wiggins was actually pretty good for the Warriors this year.
The Warriors were actually pretty good this year when Wiseman wasn't playing.
First instinct is to say under, cause the Wizards are trash and this series won't go more than 5 games, if that. But Robin Lopez can definitely get under someone's skin and Embiid has shown he can get bothered; I bet Robin makes it a goal. I'll still take the under, but say he'll get 2 in one game for an ejection and finish the series with 3.
East
Sixers 4-0 over Wiz
Nets 4-0 over Celtics
Bucks 4-2 over Heat
Knicks 4-2 over Hawks (with the utmost respect to their respective fans here, I can't believe one of these times is going to the second round!)
Sixers 4-0 over Knicks
Nets 4-3 over Bucks (someone on the Nets gets hurt this round)
Sixers 4-2 over Injured Nets (if it happens, Healthy Nets 4-2 over Sixers)
West
Jazz 4-1 over whoever
Lakers 4-1 over Suns
Nuggets 4-2 over Blazers
Clippers 4-1 over Mavs
Clippers 4-2 over Jazz
Lakers 4-3 over Nuggets
Clippers 4-2 over Lakers
Finals
Clippers 4-2 over Sixers
Turns out as I did this I don't feel confident about any of this, which actually seems fun. I think the Sixers have such an easy path to the conference finals that, though I think they're the 3rd best team in the conference (in terms of being built for the playoffs) I'm still taking them. If the Nets miraculously stay 100% then I expect them to get there instead.
I actually don't think much of the Clippers but I just don't think the Lakers will be able to limp their way through it. Otherwise the West seems totally wide open, which again is fun.
to get to the the conference finals, the sixers will have to go through a collective starting 5 of:
trae young
brad beal
bogdan bogdanovic
julius randle
clint capela
meanwhile the nets would have to go through
jrue
butler
tatoom
giannis
bam
the bucks would have to go through:
kyrie
harden
durant
butler
bam
and the heat would have to go through....you get the picture.
it's almost as easy a run as the lakers had last season. sounds like you're forgetting about russell westbrook.
This was also my thought, but I feel like Russ gets all the Ts in that situation.
engaging in honest conversation withtrolling jazz fans. possibly even moreso, if you can imagine.it's coming. your welcome.
your welcome.
NEW THREAD
East
Sixers 4-0 over Wiz
Nets 4-1 over Celtics
Bucks 4-3 over Heat
Hawks 4-2 over Knicks (the East is a joke)
Sixers 4-0 over Hawks
Bucks 4-3 over Nets (someone on the Nets gets hurt this round)
Sixers 4-2 over Bucks
West
Jazz 4-2 over Warriors
Lakers 4-2 over Suns
Nuggets 4-1 over Blazers
Mavs 4-3 over Clippers
Jazz 4-2 over Mavs
Lakers 4-3 over Nuggets
Lakers 4-2 over Jazz
Finals
Sixers 4-2 over Lakers
Sixers in 4
Nets in 5
Bucks in 6
Knicks in 7
Sixers in 5
Nets in 7 (I'll be rooting for Milwaukee)
Sixers in 7
West
Jazz in 6
Lakers in 6
Nuggets in 6
Clippers in 5
Clippers in 6
Lakers in 7
Clippers in 6
Clippers over Sixers in 6
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