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Friday, October 15, 2021
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The NBA: Come for the epidemiological lessons, stay for the multi-variate ideological sorting. It's faaaannnntastic.
i think it's fair to assume that anyone not in tonight's lineup will be preparing the 'code red' for this weekend.
Funny, I keep hearing about how he believes the earth is flat, despite the fact that he can actually see the curvature of it out the window of the team plane dozens of times a year, every year.
EDIT:
Yeah, that seems about right.
Tier 1--the true contenders:
1. Milwaukee
2. Brooklyn
Tier 2--question marks:
3. Philadelphia
4. Hawks
5. Miami
6. Boston
Tier 3--not good teams who maybe have a shot to move up:
7. Indiana
8. Chicago
9. Toronto
10. Charlotte
11. New York Knicks
Tier 4--these are not good teams
12. Washington
13. Detroit
14. Orlando
15. Cleveland
West:
Tier 1--the true contenders
N/A
Tier 2--question marks
1. Utah
2. Lakers
3. Phoenix
4. Denver
Tier 3--Really hard to tell right now
5. Dallas
6. Golden State
7. Portland
8. LA Clippers
Tier 4--not good teams who could move up
9. Memphis
10. San Antonio
11. Sacramento
12. New Orleans
Tier 5--bad teams
13. Houston
14. Timberwolves
Tier -1000--guaranteed to be bad or your money back:
15. OKC
IMHO it’s because it’s all relative to Brooklyn and Bucks. Everyone in the west should be a prohibitive dog to either.
Mosses, thank you for posting. Loved the intro.
I liked Carter coming out of Duke, thought he could be a better pro than Bagley. He hasn't improved at all, but he's an okay rotation piece.
This one was over by halftime. Final 86-50.
Lakers went 0-a million in preseason and Russ looked awful. That's pretty much it. I think they'll figure it out, but they have to answer some questions IMO.
All of those are reasonable. I think I would have had the Bulls much lower before preseason. The Knicks I have lower not for any reason that I can really articulate. I just think they weren't as good as they played last year.
League: The off-season was noisy, but in many ways, not much changed since no Top 10 guys switched teams. With that and the Irving situation, Milwaukee should be the favorite for the same reasons I picked them to make the Finals last year: they have a superstar who is still in his physical prime, last year Middleton and Holiday gave him enough help, they caught a few breaks like every champ does, and there it is. As to Brooklyn, Durant is 33, Harden is 32, both have health concerns, and Irving won't get vaxxed and thinks the world is flat. Brooklyn's floor is not as low as the Lakers's, but they are not as solid a bet as Milwaukee.
I will be watching Chicago closely, due to the preseason awesomeness and Ball and Caruso being there.
And even without him, I think if Harden and Durant are 100% going into the playoffs, they're still the favorite. They've got good role players.
Now, the Bucks are more physical and healthy, so I think they're close just by virtue of I feel much more confident of what you're going to get from them in the playoffs. More likely to be healthy, outstanding defense, kill teams on the glass, shaky half court offense. That's a very good, but not elite, playoff team. So Brooklyn's best is better, imo.
Kyrie Irving was born in Australia. He has lived in worked in the US. I’d be interested in knowing which route he took, East or West, to get from Australia to the US, and which direction leads to falling off the edge of the planet.
I was going to quibble with this, but then I discovered the Kawhi Leonard news. They'd be solid favorites with him in the lineup, right? If he can come back close to 100% before the playoffs (big if), that's a truly excellent team.
Appetite for resuming the wacky predictions contest?
1. Milwaukee
2. Brooklyn
3. Hawks
4. Philadelphia (on the other hand, feels like Embiid's due for like a 40 game season again)
5. Boston
6. Miami (I dislike the Heat and am biased, that said I could see them being play-in game bad this year. Lowry is old. Butler is basketball old. Their offense should be below average. They have no depth, etc. I don't know!)
7. Indiana (I want to pick them as high as 3rd but I'm a coward)
8. Charlotte
9. New York Knicks (not as good as their record last year, but they've really improved their talent level)
10. Chicago
11. Toronto
12. Washington
13. Detroit
14. Cleveland
15. Orlando
West:
1. Utah
2. Lakers
3. Phoenix
4. Denver (I think they're the best team in the west if healthy, but who knows when Murray is back or what he'll look like)
5. Portland
6. Golden State
7. LA Clippers
8. Dallas (one year they should try to get some good players to play with Luka)
9. San Antonio
10. Sacramento (Gentry is going to lead them on a nice run in the 2nd half of the season to make the play-in)
11. New Orleans
12. Memphis
13. Timberwolves
14. Houston
15. OKC
Finals:
Nets over Lakers
- I agree with what seems to be the consensus that there aren't a lot of teams at the very top. Like I think the Hawks are good, but it seems like the 3rd best team in a conference should be better than them.
- I want to pick the Suns to tumble way down but everyone below them has serious roster/injury questions.
- I'm guessing Kawhi doesn't play at all.
1 - Bucks lose in round two these playoffs. I'm not sure who gets them, but I still am not buying them as a playoff team. (I didn't buy them at any point last year, either, so what the hell do I know?)
2 - Utah/Phoenix finish a clear 1-2 in the West standings again in some order. I'll predict that, but not predicting how either of them do in the playoffs.
3 - Minnesota makes the play-in tournament.
4 - Golden State also makes the play-in tournament.
5 - Memphis finishes ahead of the Clippers.
2. Milwaukee
3. Philadelphia
4. Atlanta
5. Boston
6. Miami
7. Chicago
8. New York Knicks
9. Charlotte
10. Indiana
11. Toronto
12. Washington
13. Cleveland
14. Detroit
15. Orlando
1. Utah
2. Phoenix
3. Lakers
4. Denver
5. Dallas
6. Portland
7. Golden State
8. Clippers
9. Memphis
10. New Orleans
11. San Antonio
12. Sacramento
13. Minnesota
14. Houston
15. OKC
Brooklyn over Milwaukee in the East
Lakers over Utah in West
Brooklyn over Lakers
Also, despite my constantly reiterated Carlisle skepticism, they're poised for a massive improvement on that end, and if/when they ever get healthy, LeVert/Brogdon/Turner/Sabonis/Warren/Torrey Craig/Justin Holiday/McConnell is a solid rotation.
EAST
1. Brooklyn
2. Milwaukee
3. Atlanta
4. Miami
5. Boston
6. Philadelphia
7. Chicago
8. Toronto
9. Charlotte
10. Knicks
11. Indiana
12. Washington
13. Detroit
14. Orlando
15. Cleveland
WEST
1. Phoenix
2. Denver
3. Utah
4. Lakers
5. Dallas
6. Clippers
7. Memphis
8. Portland
9. Golden State
10. San Antonio
11. Minnesota
12. Sacramento
13. New Orleans
14. Houston
15. Oklahoma City
I have a bad feeling this Pelicans team is going to be the kind of disaster that gets a reporter to write a Worst Team Money Can Buy-type of book next summer. I think the Hawks make a jump past a lot of the East teams.
If the Nets aren't hobbled by injuries to Durant and/or Harden, I see them beating the Nuggets in the finals. (I also think Denver will make a consequential trade in February.)
I was exactly in the same place you were with the Pacers. Something makes me think they'll be good, but when I interrogate that, I don't know what I come up with.
In addition to the points you made, I would add that I think they are the most likely Simmons team.
1. Brooklyn
2. Milwaukee
3. Boston
4. Atlanta
5. Philadelphia- probably the third best team, but, you know.
6. New York- pieces make sense and Thibs is a good coach when not the GM
7. Miami- probably more dangerous as a playoff team, but Lowry and Tucker are showing signs of aging and Jimmy isn't young.
8. Chicago
9. Charlotte
10. Indiana- Bjorkgren was awful. They have a really good 2nd, 3rd, 4th best player, but no star.
11. Detroit- more interesting than good
12. Washington
13. Toronto- might just tear it down
14. Cleveland- kind of an apocalyptic scenario for them
15. Orlando
West
1. Utah- nobody in the West is built to dominate the regular season. Someone has to win the most games.
2. Phoenix- even if they don't have the most star power, the roster and roles fit together.
3. Dallas
4. Denver- would be first with Murray
5. Lakers
6. Portland
7. Golden State
8. Memphis
9. Clippers
10. Minnesota
11. Sacramento
12. San Antonio
13. New Orleans
14. Houston
15. OKC
JJJ's payday is excessive to me.
Bridges with 4/90 makes sense. It's funny how past market sets the market, and I know that's the top of the 3&D market, but I think he's more valuable than Ayton, and has a clearer path to become a true max guy than Ayton. It's normal and reasonable to expect he'll continue to get a bit better at passing and creating his own as he continues his career. I like Ayton. But how much better is he than, say, Javale McGee - serious question?
That's a fair point. How good would the team be if they swapped in a true star (let's say Beal) for Levert? A closing lineup of Brogdon, Beal, Warren, Sabonis, Turner with McConell, Lamb, Craig, Goga in the rotation. That team seems like it would be right in the mix with that Philly, Boston, Miami, Atlanta tier. Maybe not a true contender, but a team that could get out of the first round.
Potential roster moves aside, hasn't the Pacers' biggest issue over the last few years been that they haven't been able to find a way to make Sabonis and Turner mesh well on the court together?
How much does his value drop once Chris Paul retires?
I get more teams are locking guys up early, but John Collins just played out the last year, proved he was worth what he wanted, and then got it.
I also don't like Sarver, but they're surely going be in the repeater tax in 2 or 3 years if they keep Ayton. Each little bit you save matters quite a bit once that's the case.
I also worry about LeVert's health, though I am relieved they caught the cancer early. He's one of the easiest players in the league to root for after the Kenny Atkinson-era Nets built a nice little core with him, Dinwiddie, Harris, Allen, and Russell after the Billy King-designed roster bottomed out in spectacular fashion.
Indiana starts to make a ton of sense with Ben Simmons in, Sabonis and Brogdon (and maybe LeVert) out.
I also think he's one of their most versatile players. Can defend most guys 1-3, plays off of stars well because he's a good secondary creator, can attack closeouts, and he's a great shooter but has a lower release. He's the guy I'd most want around Simmons, besides Turner.
Sabonis and Embiid don't make sense, though. So that'd have to be a 3 team trade.
I assume that's the major issue. Didn't see that Brogdon signed, so that probably means nothing happens with PHL until the trade deadline for Indiana.
add huerter for 4/65
Or maybe don't draft a center in the lottery at all (unless he's Turkish, natch).
Edit: that Allen deal is inexplicable to me. Is Grayson Allen really that much better than Garrison Matthews?
Team Best Case Worst Case
Suns 1st 3rd
Jazz 1st 3rd
Nuggets 2nd 5th
Lakers 3rd 7th
Mavs 3rd 6th
Clippers 4th 7th
Blazers 5th 9th
Warriors 4th 10th
Grizzlies 7th 10th
Pelicans 9th 12th
I don’t consider the five other teams playoff contenders. They playoffs are what we care about, so I don’t think deciding which team I think will be the 14th-best in the conference is relevant here.
If NO's worst case is 12th, then there's at least one more playoff contender by definition.
Bjorkgren is back with Toronto as an assistant, it looks like.
I'm really struggling with predictions this year - don't know what to assume with Irving or Simmons or Westbrook integrating in LA.
irving: take the under
simmons: take the under
westbrook: take the over
Quoting myself is annoying but I listened to the Thinking Basketball podcast season preview and want to take this back. I guess I am now a Jordan Poole Truther. Also maybe the Warriors scuffled to start last year because they played so many BAD players and maybe this year they'll just decide to stop doing that?
I'm still not sure. They have so little margin for error on scoring. Klay is a huge question mark. I think Poole is getting almost too much cred now. He's a good scorer, but is he an efficient scorer? His efficiency last year was slightly above average, but was awful his rookie year and not great in college either. It's unclear to me he's a plus 3 point shooter, and if he's not, then what's their non-Curry offense look like. Curry is getting older and has had injuries 3 of the last 4 years. Wiggins had a career year on shooting, not 100% convinced that's going to hold up. Porter may not contribute, Iguodala is toast and can't score anymore, and at that point you're looking at potentially having to play 2 big lineups or a fair amount of rookie time. I think some of the moves around the edges will make their defense a bit worse, too.
That's from this Ringer article.
And it feels true. Here's the Lakers numbers from the 2020 playoffs with Davis at center, which are insane. Here are the Bucks with Giannis at center in these playoffs.
But then I always come back to "If it's so simple what stops this from happening all the time?"
Is it really just avoiding dealing with being the center on defense? I guess that's a valid concern, but it still confuses me a bit. It's not like they have to guard Shaq or Moses Malone these days. (EDIT - It still may be the valid concern here. I acknowledge I do not have first hand knowledge of the physical toll playing center in the NBA takes compared to other positions.)
The Giannis at center lineups were very good in the playoffs, but:
- Giannis at C lineups weren't that great in the regular season (+3.1). So some sample size stuff likely in play here.
- In the playoffs, pretty much all the Giannis at C lineups were crunch time lineups with their best switching defenses and some of their best shooting lineups, when Giannis was at C, those lineups appear to always have had both Middleton and Jrue on the floor. Point being, I suppose, that's not so different from looking at a starting unit's net rating. Usually they're pretty damn good, because all your best players are playing. For reference, Milwaukee's starting lineup had a slightly better playoff net rating than the Giannis at C lineups.
- Brook Lopez is a good to very good player, and does need to play some minutes. He's a great regular season defender, and ultimately is just one of their best players. He needs minutes - they don't have an equivalently good wing to give those 27 minutes a game. I think this is a challenge for a lot of teams. There are only so many solid wings to go around.
- It's not just Giannis at the C where you worry about banging. You then are dealing with Middleton banging with PFs, Connaughton potentially guarding more SFs, etc. Game conditions in the 4th quarter of playoffs that make the small-ball lineups successful I'm not positive apply as well for long periods of time, though this may not be true. I just bring it up because usually there are very specific scenarios where these guys are playing at C, and it's not a random distribution of game events.
- Giannis' defensive greatness imo is mostly as a weakside help defender where he zones up the 2 weakside shooters and provides secondary rim protection better than anyone in the NBA. I think he can be successful as a C, but I do think his best attributes are highlighted when playing on the weakside shooter in the corner.
I think AD is a bit of a different case.
The Warriors were still pretty good last year with the Steph + Draymond - Wiseman lineups last year. That will probably be mostly true again, though there can be some aging even with those two. Wiggins has become fine as a role player, but I don't think he raises their ceiling- he is more of a poor man's Harrison Barnes. Bjelica, 58 year-old Iguodala, more rookies... I don't think the structure of the team has changed much from the version that needs something close to 100% Klay to contend.
Then again, if Klay is fully healthy, they are a real title contender.
One of the reasons that worked is that PJ Tucker can play "center," and even if he's not making shots, he still gets enough attention to draw a defender away from the paint. I assume Portis will get more of those minutes this year in lineups with their 3 stars and another shooter. Lopez can do that, but he has more specific stylistic limitations on defense. I'm sure they'll be on the lookout for someone who can fill that Tucker role as a shooter/rebounder/big defender who can switch through a buyout or a trade.
Wouldn't it be easier to just call it "Hardening?"
Also, like jmurph I love this. Is is sloppy and not going to get better soon. Tremendous stuff for anyone not invested in Sixers success.
i don't think people appreciate that the sixers, unlike houston with harden and minnesota with butler, are not desperate to get simmons back, and they're legitimately willing to live without him.
It's hard to know exactly what to think. They played a couple of guys a lot of minutes who were absolutely ghastly last year (Oubre & Wiseman). If they just knock off the charity minutes and just go with the good players, you can see the case for optimism.
The case for pessimism is that Steph is the system and any time he misses is catastrophic.
I actually don't think Klay is that important to this team. I think Otto Porter, Jr. is a pretty key player. He and Klay are maybe sort of duplicative.
2019:
Steph on/Klay off:
121 ORTG, 106 DRTG
Steph on/Klay on:
121 ORTG, 108 DRTG
Steph off/Klay on:
106 ORTG, 111 DRTG
The Steph off/Klay on minutes were mostly spent with Durant on the court as well, so it's not like the unit lacked talent.
Edit: both those quotes from Tim Bontemps on Twitter
"i'll carry you through the first half of the season. just get me help at the deadline"
wait, was thibs the GM that signed wiggins to a max extension?
2021 season:
Draymond on/Steph off:
103 ORTG, 114 DRTG
Steph on/Draymond off:
108 ORTG, 114 DRTG
Steph on/Draymond on:
117 ORTG, 112 DRTG
Steph on/Dray on, Wiseman/Oubre off:
130 ORTG, 112 DRTG
That right there is the case for optimism for the Warriors.
Yes, although that was Glen Taylor's decision. But when General Soreness told Thibs that he wanted out right after their disgraceful exit to the Rockets, he should have actually done something.
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