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Friday, October 15, 2021

NBA 2021-2022 Season Thread

I estimate there are maybe 10-12 Primates left on this site, and none of us want to post this thread.

Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 15, 2021 at 11:39 AM | 1250 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: get me out of philly, nba, off top

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   101. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: October 19, 2021 at 02:21 PM (#6047484)
so much good stuff going on:

- what simmons doing is probably "smart". he doesnt need to gaf about his trade value - lower value helps his future team.
- i didn't look poole coming out of school and it looks like he's proving me wrong? to the extent that he represents the gap between how stat models like the warriors (they don't) and other observers feel (they do), this is the piece where i wonder if the stat models are most offbase. i'm less sanguine on klay (like tship) and i think stuff like duncan emphasizing how green will be playing lots at the five spot might be his being high on his own supply.

here's my predictions:
EASTMIL BKN ATL PHI MIA BOS IND CHI NYK TOR WAS CHA CLE DET ORL
WEST
UTA LAL PHX DAL MEM POR LAC DEN GSW MIN NOP SAC SAS HOU OKC 
maybe my dumbest pick is memphis at 5. there's been a lot of comps of them to atlanta a year ago - but while the hawks went all in, the grizz are still holding off. that said, they've a ton of depth (in what will be an 82 game season) and a lot of young players who might take jumps in their development (durant and jjj for two). i am pessimistic wrt adams.
in the west, i see a pretty big gap between 3 and 4. wouldn't be surprised to see the mavs be worse than this, because i think jason kidd is a not good coach - four through nine could go a lot of ways.
in the east, i'm assuming the sixers (whose depth has gotten pretty good) deal simmons and get change on the dollar for him and that kyrie rejoins the team at some point. this feels rude to the knicks, who could easily end up in the top 6.
i have a gap between 11 and 12 in both conferences.
   102. Adam M Posted: October 19, 2021 at 02:36 PM (#6047487)
Der-K: Why are you so low on Denver? I think yours are the only predictions I've seen that don't have the Nuggets in one of the upper tiers.
   103. spivey 2 Posted: October 19, 2021 at 02:47 PM (#6047491)
I forgot about the Kidd factor. I remember him saying some nonsense about not wanting to be too much of a jump shooting team this preseason. I don't trust him.
   104. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: October 19, 2021 at 03:03 PM (#6047495)
i'm not really low on denver, i considered them for as high as 4. jokic takes a step back, murray is out, not a campazzo believer (wish i was!), am predicting a coalescing year.
i do like that roster, to be clear.
   105. tshipman Posted: October 19, 2021 at 03:14 PM (#6047498)
The Mavs are so confusing. Every indicator for them is pointing up, but the coaching is so bad, it makes you want to not bet on them.
   106. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: October 19, 2021 at 03:35 PM (#6047501)
https://twitter.com/alyssakeiko/status/1450517339129135106

@alyssakeiko
Choosing to believe Joel and Iverson purposefully omitting commas to indicate they too are sick of ben


The Iverson one is so funny
   107. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 19, 2021 at 04:06 PM (#6047510)
John Gonzalez @JohnGonzalez
The Sixers almost killed a dude with a sesame alergy and had a GM saying wild #### on his Twitter burners but somehow they always find a way to level up on drama

   108. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: October 19, 2021 at 04:12 PM (#6047511)
what's the sesame thing?

since we were talking about uber-metrics a-ways back, there's a new one on theanalyst.com, called drip, by nathan walker.
   109. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 19, 2021 at 04:13 PM (#6047512)
what's the sesame thing?
lmgtfy
   110. KronicFatigue Posted: October 19, 2021 at 04:27 PM (#6047515)
- what simmons doing is probably "smart". he doesnt need to gaf about his trade value - lower value helps his future team.


This would be true IF his primary goal is to win. I'm not so sure his resume indicates that he puts team wins above all else. And a part of the trade package will be trade picks which may take some time to affect the quality of his team.

In the meantime, he becomes the villain, decreases his chances of endorsement deals and probably gives his future team lots of concerns when it comes time for his next contract.
   111. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 19, 2021 at 04:40 PM (#6047522)
Isn't his primary goal at the moment simply to get paid? He doesn't seem to care much about his reputation, in the league or more broadly. The Sixers indeed seem to be trying to continue to play hardball with his money, which could get interesting pretty quickly. How much latitude does a team have to withhold salary for conduct detrimental to the team, one wonders. At some point you'd expect the NBAPA to care, but if everyone dislikes Simmons enough maybe that point is farther off than I think.
   112. spivey 2 Posted: October 19, 2021 at 04:41 PM (#6047523)
- what simmons doing is probably "smart". he doesnt need to gaf about his trade value - lower value helps his future team.


Maybe. I think he's truly hurting his value around the league, not just Philly's potential return. He does not seem like a guy I would trust being able to build a franchise around, if I'm a GM. Harden and Jimmy showed up and acted their way out, but they were also much better players, and still put in some effort. Harden kicked off the season with a ridiculously good game, as I recall.

I just don't know that Simmons' value was high enough to take the hit he's giving it this offseason and preseason to where teams are still going to want to give much for him. But, we shall see.
   113. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 19, 2021 at 04:44 PM (#6047526)
In the meantime, he becomes the villain, decreases his chances of endorsement deals and probably gives his future team lots of concerns when it comes time for his next contract.
i wouldn't be shocked if the league office fires a warning shot around his agent/agency, either.
   114. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: October 19, 2021 at 04:45 PM (#6047528)
he has years to rebuild his value. also, what endorsements?
just go the harden route from the get-go next time, the way he's done this is stupid.
   115. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 19, 2021 at 05:05 PM (#6047534)
he has years to rebuild his value. also, what endorsements?
vegemite.
   116. SteveF Posted: October 19, 2021 at 05:56 PM (#6047545)
I think Simmons should play and take 10 3s a game from the logo with 16 seconds left on the shot clock just to troll the #### out of Philly fans.
   117. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: October 19, 2021 at 06:34 PM (#6047554)
just go the harden route from the get-go next time, the way he's done this is stupid.


Yeah, this is what I don't get. Make it clear you will do the bare minimum required in your contract until they trade you, but refusing to report for camp or preseason just makes their case against you for antics like today far easier to prove. I am curious though if this suspension is unpaid if the NBAPA will fight it (I'd assume so) and how likely it is Sixers could win.
   118. spivey 2 Posted: October 19, 2021 at 06:54 PM (#6047559)
Bagley was pre-informed he’ll be a DNP-CD opening night. Excel sports put out a spicy statement. Kangz baby!
   119. . . . . . . Posted: October 19, 2021 at 06:58 PM (#6047560)
Simmons is so
Immature, he can’t even
Execute
The harden plan
Without #######
It up
   120. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 19, 2021 at 06:59 PM (#6047561)
huh, i see that ee shitposter has made an appearance
   121. Hombre Brotani Posted: October 19, 2021 at 07:10 PM (#6047565)
East

1. Brooklyn
2. Milwaukee
3. New York
4. Boston
5. Atlanta
6. Miami
7. Chicago
8. Philadelphia
9. Charlotte
10. Indiana
11. Detroit
12. Washington
13. Toronto
14. Cleveland
15. Orlando

West

1. Denver
2. Utah
3. Phoenix
4. Dallas
5. Portland
6. Lakers
7. Golden State
8. Memphis
9. Clippers
10. Minnesota
11. San Antonio
12. New Orleans
13. Sacramento
14. Houston
15. OKC

I think this is the year that one of Denver or Utah finally breaks through before getting beat by Brooklyn in the Finals. Also, I'm probably the worst at predictions out of all the regular OT:NBA poster, so definitely bet against me.
   122. Willard Baseball Posted: October 19, 2021 at 07:32 PM (#6047568)
East

Milwaukee
Brooklyn
Philly
Miami
New York
Chicago

Boston
Atlanta
Charlotte
Toronto

Washington
Indiana
Cleveland
Detroit
Orlando

West

Utah
Phoenix
LA Lakers
Dallas
Denver
Memphis

Portland
San Antonio
Golden State
LA Clippers

Minnesota
New Orleans
Sacramento
Houston
OKC
   123. . . . . . . Posted: October 19, 2021 at 07:36 PM (#6047570)
I carry your heart stigfucker
   124. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 19, 2021 at 07:43 PM (#6047571)
[119] reads like someone drunk tried to get the first letters to spell SIXERS and missed the toilet entirely.
   125. What if I planted tomatoes Posted: October 19, 2021 at 07:45 PM (#6047572)
I know I am biased but I don't understand someone posting they don't think the Bucks are a playoff team unless that is just trolling.
   126. asinwreck Posted: October 19, 2021 at 07:54 PM (#6047574)
The first quarter of the Bucks' championship defense is going well.
   127. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: October 19, 2021 at 08:02 PM (#6047575)
Looks like I had the Bucks too low…
(Didn’t you list them first?)
Yes.
   128. Hombre Brotani Posted: October 19, 2021 at 08:19 PM (#6047578)
1. Brooklyn
2. Milwaukee

...Also, I'm probably the worst at predictions out of all the regular OT:NBA poster, so definitely bet against me.
Still 6 minutes left in the first half of the first game, and I'm already wrong. I really am the worst.
   129. spivey 2 Posted: October 19, 2021 at 08:34 PM (#6047589)
Patty Mills isn’t a shitty backup point guard
   130. tshipman Posted: October 19, 2021 at 08:50 PM (#6047594)
I'm sorry, what?


Dane Moore
@DaneMooreNBA
Karl-Anthony Towns said his pregame ritual to pump him up this season is watching two gorillas fighting to the death.


Oh, ok. I thought I misheard you.
   131. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 19, 2021 at 08:52 PM (#6047595)
maybe these guys just need to get laid.
   132. spivey 2 Posted: October 19, 2021 at 08:57 PM (#6047599)
They need to call flagrants on guys who try to sneak under so much like Griffin. ####'s dangerous.

   133. asinwreck Posted: October 19, 2021 at 08:58 PM (#6047600)
Giannis is 5 of 6 on free throws so far and looks good shooting them.
   134. spivey 2 Posted: October 19, 2021 at 09:06 PM (#6047606)
Know that Patty Mills never has had the greatest endurance, but bit surprised we've only seen him for 14 minutes given he has a 1.500 TS%.
   135. spivey 2 Posted: October 19, 2021 at 09:13 PM (#6047612)
I love Khris Middleton.
   136. spivey 2 Posted: October 19, 2021 at 09:22 PM (#6047615)
So help me god, Thanasis looks like an actual NBA player tonight.
   137. What if I planted tomatoes Posted: October 19, 2021 at 09:24 PM (#6047619)
136--I know, right? Incredible
   138. spivey 2 Posted: October 19, 2021 at 09:33 PM (#6047626)
Kind of wild Milwaukee's been able to keep this lead despite Brooklyn shooting so well from 3. Brooklyn just not really locked in.
   139. spivey 2 Posted: October 19, 2021 at 09:34 PM (#6047628)
Grayson Allen's had some big minutes tonight. Just stop tripping guys my dude.
   140. spivey 2 Posted: October 19, 2021 at 09:53 PM (#6047645)
We didn't talk about awards, so I'll throw some together here:

MVP - Embiid
DPOY - Giannis
6MAN - Mills
Coach - Snyder

Edit: Also, Gobert is the only player who ever deserves regular season DPOY, but I think the Bucks defense will be ridiculous and I think Gobert will deal with serious backlash.
   141. PJ Martinez Posted: October 19, 2021 at 10:00 PM (#6047649)
@Pacers Injury Report for tomorrow's game at Charlotte:

Malcolm Brogdon - Probable (left shoulder)
Jeremy Lamb - Questionable (right wrist)
Justin Holiday - Questionable (left ankle)
Kelan Martin - Out (left hamstring)
Caris LeVert - Out (lower back)
T.J. Warren - Out (left foot)
   142. Hombre Brotani Posted: October 19, 2021 at 11:09 PM (#6047679)
Watching Rondo take 3 after 3 while Russ goes 1-6 is not my idea of a good time.

1-7.
   143. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: October 19, 2021 at 11:43 PM (#6047695)
In recent years, it seems to me that Russell is really struggling with finishing at the rim. This is despite the fact that he still seems to have really good athleticsm. That, and his worsening shooting, is kind of odd to me.
   144. tshipman Posted: October 20, 2021 at 12:34 AM (#6047723)
LeBron and AD combining for 60 with no other Lakers in double figures is pretty emblematic of the season.
   145. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: October 20, 2021 at 12:52 AM (#6047724)
Weird game. AD and LBJ were really good and Curry was only meh. Usually, you'd think that the Lakers would win comfortably.
   146. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: October 20, 2021 at 12:54 AM (#6047725)
I noted after the Westbrook deal that FTs would be a big problem; the team was 9/19. That will be an issue and perimeter D may be, and they will need to get Nunn and Horton-Tucker on the floor and get something out of them. But the bottom line ofc goes back to Westbrook. He has to deliver. If he can't, the rest is mostly irrelevant.

Obviously, I didn't see anything tonight to make me revisit Milwaukee as the favorite, attaching all one-game-it's-early caveats.
   147. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 20, 2021 at 02:46 AM (#6047727)
Good to see that everyone is picking Orlando last. This team is going to be very, very bad. The Magic are going to give an ungodly amount of minutes to replacement level or below players, on top of which they have no continuity, players returning from injury, a new coach... It's just a terrible team, which is exactly the right strategy for the franchise. Time to start looking at 2022 draft boards.
   148. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 20, 2021 at 07:45 AM (#6047729)
57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price


Like the new name. Careful though, changing a poopy diaper for a whiny, uncooperative, 6’10” baby is going to be messy.
   149. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: October 20, 2021 at 10:29 AM (#6047736)
Re: GSW: It's hard to know exactly what to think. They played a couple of guys a lot of minutes who were absolutely ghastly last year (Oubre & Wiseman). If they just knock off the charity minutes and just go with the good players, you can see the case for optimism.

The case for pessimism is that Steph is the system and any time he misses is catastrophic.

i didn't look poole coming out of school and it looks like he's proving me wrong? to the extent that he represents the gap between how stat models like the warriors (they don't) and other observers feel (they do), this is the piece where i wonder if the stat models are most offbase. i'm less sanguine on klay (like tship) and i think stuff like duncan emphasizing how green will be playing lots at the five spot might be his being high on his own supply.

I think the most interesting thing about the Warriors is that they have a couple recent very high picks in Kuminga and Wiseman who logically shouldn't crack the rotation. Will they play when healthy? Are the Warriors gearing up to trade them by the deadline for something much more useful this season? There are so many good frontcourt pieces on bad teams or in ill-fitting situations that conceivably could be had for some combination of those 2 guys and GSW's 2022 1st rounder: Christian Wood, Jerami Grant, Myles Turner, PJ Washington, Miles Bridges, Thad Young, Boucher, Olynyk. They could tack on salary and go after a guy like Siakam, as was rumored leading up to the draft. I don't see as many good options on the perimeter but I'm sure something will be on the table depending on what they're looking for.
   150. KronicFatigue Posted: October 20, 2021 at 11:26 AM (#6047763)
This is neither here nor there, but watching Giannis taking so long at the FT line BEFORE he even got the ball was driving me nuts last night. And it got me thinking of ways to speed up the game. Is there a way to collect shooting fouls and save them until close to the end? In the most extreme example, you'd track how many shots each team is owed and then let the team with more shoot the difference at the start of the 4th quarter. So, if the Lakers are +5 after 3, they get to designate someone to take 5 shots in a row. Less extreme measures could be to shoot after every quarter, or make the actual players who were fouled take the shots.

I still haven't decided how I would handle the 4th quarter though. Maybe only shoot once a team is +3 so that a 2 shot foul could be wiped away with an opposing foul.

This would ruin ppg from a historical perspective though.
   151. spivey 2 Posted: October 20, 2021 at 11:51 AM (#6047770)
I think much more likely to be implemented is "one to make 2", where you only get one FT worth for all of the points that trip to line warrants. Analysis I've seen on NBA nerd twitter is that FT% increases like 3% on the second shot, but not enough to really matter for competitive advantage or historical affects on the game.

FWIW, Giannis did drastically speed up his FT routine once he got the ball.
   152. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 20, 2021 at 12:21 PM (#6047780)
K.C. Johnson @KCJHoop ·8m

Per Billy Donovan, Troy Brown Jr. has been dealing with an issue in his mouth that has made it difficult for him to eat. He went through shootaround.


I'm sorry, but this tweet sounds like it was written by @NBAInjuryR3port. I shouldn't be laughing at it this hard.
   153. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 20, 2021 at 12:26 PM (#6047782)
Kyle Neubeck @KyleNeubeck
I would respect the “Embiid threw Ben under the bus after Game 7” argument for Simmons’ approach if anyone making it acknowledged that Simmons said “I am who I am, it is what it is” and “How many assists I have?” and “What did Trae shoot?” *before* Joel talked after Game 7
Brian Geltzeiler @hoopscritic
Beyond impressed with how smooth @Stan Van Gundy just said Mamukelashvili. So was Ian!!!
Tim Bontemps @TimBontemps
Jaylen Brown says the Celtics have an inhaler ready for him to use, like Jayson Tatum did last year after testing positive for COVID-19, but that he's hoping he won't need to use it.
WOOO (therapudic) STEROIDS!!!
Andrew Lopez @_Andrew_Lopez
New Orleans Pelicans center Jonas Valanciunas has agreed on a two-year extension worth $30.1 million, his agents Aaron Mintz, Mitch Nathan and Drew Morrison of @CAA_Basketball tell ESPN. Valanciunas is now committed to the Pelicans for $44.1M over the next three seasons.
   154. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 20, 2021 at 01:08 PM (#6047795)
As for predictions, I kinda like the tiers approach (could win conference / could win a playoff series / play in ceiling / clearly lottery):

EAST: MIL BKN | PHI MIA ATL BOS | CHI NYK IND TOR CHA | WAS CLE DET ORL
WEST: UTA PHX GSW DEN LAL | POR DAL LAC MEM | NOP SAS MIN | SAC HOU OKC

MVP - Giannis
DPOY - Giannis
6MAN - Mills
COACH - Kerr
ROY - Green

FINALS - BKN over GSW**

*I think the top 6 in the East is pretty clear cut, but I'm having a harder time sorting through the 2nd/3rd group in the west even though I think the teams in the 2nd group are all better than the teams in the 3rd. I really, really wanted to be a Bulls homer and put them higher, but the other teams are just clearly better (I'm less sold on ATL than almost everyone else and MIA could slip because of injury/age issues).

**Combo prediction of a trade that improves them and having Klay healthy enough in the playoffs. Also a general comment on the top of the West. Real Finals will be the BKN/MIL ECF.
   155. tshipman Posted: October 20, 2021 at 01:36 PM (#6047804)

Andrew Lopez
@_Andrew_Lopez
New Orleans Pelicans center Jonas Valanciunas has agreed on a two-year extension worth $30.1 million, his agents Aaron Mintz, Mitch Nathan and Drew Morrison of
@CAA_Basketball
tell ESPN.

Valanciunas is now committed to the Pelicans for $44.1M over the next three seasons.
9:13 AM · Oct 20, 2021·Twitter for iPhone


What is New Orleans doing?
   156. jmurph Posted: October 20, 2021 at 01:40 PM (#6047805)
What is New Orleans doing?

That's an easily flippable salary, I'm sure they could move him for a Steven Adams type next summer.
   157. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 20, 2021 at 01:41 PM (#6047806)
What is New Orleans doing?

They might have jettisoned SVG but they are clearly still building a ####### wall.
   158. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 20, 2021 at 02:23 PM (#6047813)
   159. Too Much Coffee Man Posted: October 20, 2021 at 02:26 PM (#6047816)
I like the tiering, but since teams are usually ranked within them anyhow, I'll go:

West
1. UTA
2. LAL
3. PHO
4. GS
5. DEN
6. MEM
7. LAC
8. DAL
9. POR
10. MIN
11. SAC
12. SAN
13. NOP
14. HOU
15. OKC

Comments: I don't get the love for Dallas. Yes, Luka is amazing and some really good role players, but no 2nd star, no head coach.
I put both Memphis and Minnesota up higher than most because you can't just go chalk, someone has to rise up.
I don't like the Lakers roster construction, but they have 3 guys that can win a regular season game almost anytime they want. Age, injuries, roster imbalances will bite them again in the playoffs.
Like some others, I think Denver might be the best team. They are going to struggle the first 30 games, put it together, and Murray coming back at 80% in March will make them the "team nobody wants to face" in the playoffs.

East
1. MIL
2. BRK
3. BOS
4. ATL
5. MIA
6. PHI
7. IND
8. NYK
9. CHI
12. DET
12. WAS
12. CHA
12. TOR
12. CLE
15. ORL

Comments: Most of y'all know basketball better than me, but if I take Simmons off the 76ers roster, they look like the Mavs' roster but with a coach.
Boston feels like a 3/4 seed that fell off in a really crazy year.
After 9, it doesn't matter.

Finals:
Brooklyn over Denver
   160. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 20, 2021 at 02:33 PM (#6047817)
I get that the world is passing me in my dotage by wtf is icnicics?
   161. tshipman Posted: October 20, 2021 at 02:43 PM (#6047821)
I get that the world is passing me in my dotage by wtf is icnicics?


The first IC is supposed to be a K. It's a terrible font.

Comments: I don't get the love for Dallas. Yes, Luka is amazing and some really good role players, but no 2nd star, no head coach.


They basically had everything go wrong last year w/r/t COVID, injuries and open shot luck. That stuff was concentrated in the beginning of the year, where they had a -0.5 MOV. In the second half of the year, that evened out a bit more, and they had a +4.8 point differential.

If you think that Luka gets a bit better, Porzingis bounces back a bit, and you think the 4.8 was more indicative of their performance, it's pretty easy to see how they could be a +6 point differential team, which is like a 50+ win team.
   162. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 20, 2021 at 02:43 PM (#6047822)
The first IC is supposed to be a K. It's a terrible font.

Well i don’t feel too bad; that’s just dumb. Thanks.
   163. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 20, 2021 at 02:45 PM (#6047823)
I get that the world is passing me in my dotage by wtf is icnicics?


The first IC is supposed to be a K. It's a terrible font.

I get that the world is passing me in my dotage by wtf is icnicics?


The last IC is also supposed to be a K. It's still a terrible font.
   164. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 20, 2021 at 02:48 PM (#6047824)
I haven't usually done these, but what the heck.

East:

1. Milwaukee
2. Brooklyn

Notes: I'd swap the two if I had any confidence Kyrie would show up for a significant portion of the regular season, but I sure don't!

3. Boston
4. Atlanta
5. Philly
6. New York Icnicics
7. Miami

Notes: I'm skeptical of Miami; I don't think they're deep enough and I think Kyle Lowry may not be ageless, but I could well be wrong. I'm a Celtics homer, but I also think they're a team that had about everything possible go wrong last year and they have much more useful depth this year. Things could, of course, go sideways once again, but I'm excited for bully ball Tatum and point guard Marcus Smart. I think they have a great shot at top 5 defense and a top 10 offense.

8. Charlotte
9. Chicago
10. Pacers

Notes: I think Charlotte will be frisky and don't buy Chicago's defense, but we'll see. A new coach will help Indiana, but not enough to overcome their roster issues.

11. Washington
12. Detroit
13. Toronto
14. Cleveland
15. Orlando

Notes: Meh.

-----------------------
West:
1. Utah
2. Denver
3. Phoenix

Notes: Any of them could win the conference and I wouldn't be surprised.

4. Golden State
5. Lakers

Notes: Either could win the conference too, but I'd be surprised. I think the Lakers are thinner than they're being talked about as being (and Westbrook won't help them much) and it'll matter a lot in the regular season. If their main guys are healthy for the playoffs they may work better there. Golden State has a lot of question marks that need to go well for them to really contend, but it's certainly within the realm of possibility.

6. Clippers
7. Dallas
8. Memphis
9. Portland

Notes: I'm skeptical of almost everything not named Luka in Dallas, though he's amazing. I think Portland is going to have a disappointing season if they can't flip CJ for Simmons or otherwise make a good move, but who knows.

10. Minnesota
11. San Antonio
12. KANGZ
13. New Orleans
14. Houston

Meh.

-----------------------

My MVP bet is Tatum, because I think there's a decent chance he'll start taking enough free throws to get him closer to 30ppg than 25 and I'm a big ol' homer and don't want to not guess him if there's a shot. Don't have strong takes for any other individual awards.
   165. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: October 20, 2021 at 02:52 PM (#6047827)
They're just messing around with the Dune font, right?
   166. aberg Posted: October 20, 2021 at 03:01 PM (#6047829)
Dallas is very deep in guys who belong in an NBA rotation: Hardaway, Kleber, Finney-Smith, Powell, Brunson, Bullock, This is Us's Sterling K Brown, WCS, Boban. I even like some of the upside guys at the end of the bench: Green, Moses Brown, Ntilikina. I think that raises their floor. I do worry about Kidd.
   167. jmurph Posted: October 20, 2021 at 03:23 PM (#6047836)
As a Wolves sympathizer I keep reading/hearing all this optimism about them from media people I like and I just don't see it. Improvement, yes, but fringe playoff team I don't see. I hope I'm wrong!
   168. jmurph Posted: October 20, 2021 at 03:38 PM (#6047844)
Dallas is very deep in guys who belong in an NBA rotation: Hardaway, Kleber, Finney-Smith, Powell, Brunson, Bullock, This is Us's Sterling K Brown, WCS, Boban.

Longtime Dallas hater here so adjust my opinion accordingly, but aren't those all fringe starters or higher end bench guys? So yes to the depth part, but I think they're really lacking in higher end talent after Doncic.
   169. Mike A Posted: October 20, 2021 at 03:46 PM (#6047847)
Apparently Zion's solution to foot issues is to put more weight on them. It's a bold strategy, Cotton.

   170. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: October 20, 2021 at 03:49 PM (#6047851)
I'll take a wild ass guess too:

West:
Phoenix
Utah
Denver
Portland
Dallas
Lakers
Memphis
Clippers

Warriors
Wolves
Pelicans

Kings
Spurs
Rockets

Don't feel comfortable at Nuggets at 3 without Murray for most of the season, but then I think the Lakers have roster issues and I doubt they push Lebron or AD just for a better seed. Dallas I think Kidd will be awful otherwise might be higher though don't really like the roster outside of Luka. Clippers I don't think will be bad without Kawhi and will do just enough to probably get in. Would still have Lakers, Clippers, Nugs as favorites to make the finals assuming health. I'm very skeptical of the Warriors compared to the general feeling I guess. But barring Otto Porter staying healthy and returning to his old self, I just think they're too thin and even if Klay comes back I expect him to be pretty bad this season.

East:
Bucks
Nets
Heat
Hawks
Sixers
Celtics
Knicks
Bulls

Pacers
Hornets
Raptors
Wizards
Cavs
Pistons
Magics

Nets the finals favorite if Kyrie gets vaxxed. Bucks otherwise. Don't see much separation between the next six or seven teams, though Sixers that depends a lot on what happens with Simmons.

MVP: Giannis
DPOY: Giannis
COY: Monty

Nugs-Bucks finals.
   171. tshipman Posted: October 20, 2021 at 03:54 PM (#6047852)
As a Wolves sympathizer I keep reading/hearing all this optimism about them from media people I like and I just don't see it. Improvement, yes, but fringe playoff team I don't see. I hope I'm wrong!


I don't think the Wolves are good.

The case for optimism:
Finch was hired on Feb 22. The rest of the season, they had a 112 ORTG, and a 116 DRTG. That's poor, but for the bit before that, 106 ORTG and a 113 DRTG. So maybe they're more of a -4 team than a -7 team.
KAT missed a bunch of time. The Wolves were actually +0.3 with him on the court, and -11 when he was off.
Anthony Edwards got a lot better. Pre ASB, the Wolves were -9 with him on the court. Post ASB, they were -1.2. That's still negative! But it's not a train wreck.


So if you squint your eyes and say that there's going to be a lot more KAT, and Ant is going to get better, then you can see a path to them being just a -1 NTRG team.
   172. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 20, 2021 at 04:06 PM (#6047854)
So yes to the depth part, but I think they're really lacking in higher end talent after Doncic.

This is my take too. I've long been skeptical that Porzingis and his weird training routine is ever going to hit his potential ceiling, and if he doesn't I don't think Dallas has anyone good enough to be a normal second/third option for a good team. They're deep in fourth+ options, but that is asking a lot of Luka even if he had a coach I trust, and he has something closer to the opposite of that.
   173. asinwreck Posted: October 20, 2021 at 05:06 PM (#6047873)
I am a fan of the New York Picnics, especially on a warm sunny day like today.
   174. aberg Posted: October 20, 2021 at 05:32 PM (#6047880)
I'm not particularly high on the Wolves. I've learned many times not to be optimistic about them. I will say that going from a big negative coach to what seems like a pretty good one should help. Between injuries and suspensions, they had awful availability issues last year. I'm not sure last season tells us much about the team because KAT was dealing with seven family members dying and his own injuries/illness and subsequently had probably his worst all-around season. tship is right that a lot relies on Edwards maintaining a positive trajectory. It's not that hard to see a team that's at least as good as the rest of the play-in morass (NO, SA, SAC), which would at least be a step in the right direction. Alternately, it's very plausible that KAT still plays no defense and misses 25+ games, DLo is an inefficient gunner who plays no defense, and Edwards is empty stats.
   175. Howie Menckel Posted: October 20, 2021 at 07:27 PM (#6047924)
seems like somewhat weak sauce here....

Steve Popper
@StevePopper
·
17m
Among the celebs in attendance for the Knicks opener at MSG tonight: Jon Stewart, Michael J. Fox, Q-Tip, Tracy Morgan, Dustin Hoffman and former Knicks Bernard King, Latrell Sprewell and David Lee.
   176. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 20, 2021 at 07:36 PM (#6047926)
Well, the Bulls offense in the first quarter was Boylenesque.
   177. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 20, 2021 at 07:41 PM (#6047929)
half an hour before the sixers kick off their season opener without ben simmons, who's been suspended for conduct detrimental to the team, let's quote some words of wisdom that have been posted in this thread by various different contributors over the last few months:
4040. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: August 05, 2021 at 06:01 PM (#6033056)
It is not want or not want. It is reality. Though I admit the 76ers starting the year with Ben Simmons would be hysterical from a team chemistry standpoint.
fwiw, this is overblown.

embiid and rivers didn't pull their punches when talking about simmons' playoff performance, but they also didn't say anything that ben simmons didn't already know. and it wasn't the kind of thing where they were unfairly throwing simmons under the bus to protect themselves. can't be held liable for telling the truth.
4042. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: August 05, 2021 at 06:38 PM (#6033062)
You can tell it's no big deal by the reports coming out today that Ben Simmons won't return anyone's call!
exactly.

this is not what it looks like when someone is burning bridges (though, to be fair, simmons might still choose to do that later); this is what it looks like when someone is letting things cool off (and/or eloping to marry a kardashian in saint tropez).
4045. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: August 05, 2021 at 07:48 PM (#6033070)
This is what it looks like when someone wants to get traded, but needs to maintain leverage. If Simmons trashes the Sixers and demands a trade, his trade value plummets because then Morey can't trade him because he won't get anything like market value for him. At the same time, he's not going to buddy back up to Embiid or anyone else in the organization because he's done with them, and they gotta know.
i'm sure everyone involved agrees that it would be best for simmons to get traded, but it seems like people keep forgetting that it's the sixers, not ben simmons, that are the more motivated party here.

ben simmons is going to have the same issues wherever he winds up. changing teams might be better for him personally (that is not guaranteed, btw), but it's not going to change very much for him professionally.
4339. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: September 01, 2021 at 01:57 PM (#6037698)
i'm going to start by acknowledging that i've gotten a few things wrong about this situation over the last few months. however, i think i'm still going to double down:

-- the sixers already have a completed deal for simmons and they can send it to the league office at any time. i thought this was going to happen on draft night, but that probably wasn't a hard deadline for the sixers front office (especially given damian lillard's situation in POR).

-- i still think the on court relationship between simmons and the sixers is salvageable, assuming that simmons doesn't go for the nuculur option and hold out into the regular season. long term, simmons still needs to go, but short term, i'm not convinced this is going to blow up as easily as people think.

-- i have probably underestimated the influence of klutch on this situation, especially given the allegations by nerlens noel about klutch ignoring the sixers, as cited on a previous page. they are willing and eager to burn #### to the ground.
   178. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 20, 2021 at 08:10 PM (#6047934)
Pistons 44, Bulls 40 at the half of a game being played in 1994.

It's not all his fault, what with the terrible contract and terrible trade, but DeRozan is easily my least favorite player on this Bulls team. He's just a bad fit and I don't see how he's helping this team at all. He's also not fun to watch dribble into a difficult midrange jumper again and again.
   179. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 20, 2021 at 08:42 PM (#6047943)
this is just an early impression, but does anyone else notice a lot of incidental contact is going uncalled?

i'm a fan of this change (assuming it's real, and assuming that it sticks throughout the season, instead of getting dropped at the ASB, and assuming that it applies to the entire game, rather than switching to a different set of rules in the 4th quarter)
   180. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 20, 2021 at 08:49 PM (#6047948)
i'm not sure because it's been so long since i've watched an NBA game, but is it a good thing for your backup center to have 4 turnovers in 7 minutes of game time?
   181. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 20, 2021 at 08:54 PM (#6047950)
Rich Hoffman @rich_hofmann
Drummond might be the Jameis Winston of big-man passing. Some great passes mixed in with some head scratchers.
Ky Carlin @Ky_Carlin
Andre Drummond attempts so many wild plays lol it’s fun to watch. Gotta love the audacity.
Keith Pompey @PompeyOnSixers
If trying to do too much was a person.

   182. SteveF Posted: October 20, 2021 at 09:02 PM (#6047955)
Toronto's half court offense isn't so good.
   183. spivey 2 Posted: October 20, 2021 at 09:24 PM (#6047959)
A competent Knicks team is a god damn breath of fresh air.

Only started watching here in the 3rd, but Tatum is trying some real hero ball ####. He doesn't have that much wiggle, and he's still just trying to shake his defender and either take a step back 3 or go to the hole despite not having much separation. Talent wins out, but I was wondering what their offense would look like without a real PG. Something to watch.
   184. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 20, 2021 at 09:26 PM (#6047960)
Anthony Edwards seems to be enjoying himself.
   185. spivey 2 Posted: October 20, 2021 at 09:39 PM (#6047963)
this is just an early impression, but does anyone else notice a lot of incidental contact is going uncalled?


Have noticed this, and I think it's good. I think it's not just nostalgia that the game needs to get a bit closer to the FIBA game, which is closer to how it was called when I was younger.
   186. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 20, 2021 at 09:50 PM (#6047967)
I wish Edwards would pick his hair out, though.
   187. spivey 2 Posted: October 20, 2021 at 09:56 PM (#6047968)
If Houston and OKC are this bad now, I shudder to think how bad they'll be when they're playing out the string in the spring.
   188. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 20, 2021 at 10:05 PM (#6047976)
I wish Edwards would pick his hair out, though.
i have the same thought whenever i see furkan korkmaz.
   189. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 20, 2021 at 10:07 PM (#6047977)
Like, sure, it's his hair, but I want the gigantic ABA Afro to come back into style.
   190. spivey 2 Posted: October 20, 2021 at 10:15 PM (#6047979)
Knicks late game management has been embarrassingly bad. And we go to overtime.
   191. Hombre Brotani Posted: October 20, 2021 at 10:15 PM (#6047980)
Wow, what an epic breakdown at the end of Celts-Knicks regulation.
   192. asinwreck Posted: October 20, 2021 at 10:21 PM (#6047982)
Win or lose, you know Thibs is not happy about his team's defensive effort.
   193. Hombre Brotani Posted: October 20, 2021 at 10:27 PM (#6047985)
Really bad clock management by the Knicks at the end of the first OT, too. What the hell, Thibs.
   194. asinwreck Posted: October 20, 2021 at 10:32 PM (#6047986)
Some amazing misses in this second OT.
   195. spivey 2 Posted: October 20, 2021 at 10:32 PM (#6047987)
This game is ridiculous. College level execution down the stretch here by both teams.
   196. SteveF Posted: October 20, 2021 at 10:37 PM (#6047988)
Both teams are pretty tired. It has to have an impact on decisionmaking.
   197. tshipman Posted: October 20, 2021 at 10:47 PM (#6047994)
An early speedbump on Tatum's MVP campaign.
   198. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 20, 2021 at 10:51 PM (#6047996)
If Houston and OKC are this bad now, I shudder to think how bad they'll be when they're playing out the string in the spring.


Magic are still worse. I promise. Tonight was... likely representative.
   199. jmurph Posted: October 21, 2021 at 08:04 AM (#6048025)
This game is ridiculous. College level execution down the stretch here by both teams.

It was maybe the worst played exciting game I've ever seen. I'm pretty sure points were scored in the first OT? I only saw misses.

Either way, it's excellent to have basketball back.

   200. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 21, 2021 at 08:16 AM (#6048027)
It was maybe the worst played exciting game I've ever seen. I'm pretty sure points were scored in the first OT? I only saw misses.

Adam Himmelsbach @AdamHimmelsbach · 9h

24 points were scored in the first 2 minutes of overtime and 0 were scored in the last 3. Double OT.


The first couple of minutes of OT1 were flipping crazy.
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