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Friday, October 15, 2021

NBA 2021-2022 Season Thread

I estimate there are maybe 10-12 Primates left on this site, and none of us want to post this thread.

Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: October 15, 2021 at 11:39 AM | 4178 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: get me out of philly, nba, off top

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   2401. jmurph Posted: February 07, 2022 at 11:47 AM (#6064081)
Absolutely delighted with how this Knicks season is going.
   2402. spivey Posted: February 07, 2022 at 11:47 AM (#6064082)
I think there are a lot of interesting things about the situation, which is why it is so fascinating. I think Nate Duncan has mentioned he thinks Simmons is negative value on a max contract. I think it's a guarantee Harden will be negative value on a super max. I think there's a chance even on a normal max, he's considered a negative asset in a couple of years.

Lillard, man, I don't want any part of that contract. Beal, I don't want him on a supermax. I don't trust Kyrie to give him a max right now, given health and vaccination (any team is going to be in a large city where future waves of the pandemic could put him at risk of playing games). Simmons of course, if he struggles or quits on the team at the next team, will have very little value I think.

I think all these guys are pretty risky to me right now. I can see how a team would want to pivot from Harden for Durant's next 3 years, though. Easily.
   2403. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: February 07, 2022 at 12:00 PM (#6064083)
embiid was asked about it after yesterday's decisive victory over chicago

Bait accepted. The Bulls had no business being in that game and keeping it close, what with their top 4 guards all out and the first 3 guys off the bench being guys they literally signed off the street this year. Yet, the only reason the Sixers won was due to 3pt variance - 12/24 vs 7/26.

I'll be surprised if the Suns score less than 140 tonight against the Bulls.
   2404. a 57i66135 with a grenade still has a grenade Posted: February 07, 2022 at 12:16 PM (#6064087)
I think there are a lot of interesting things about the situation, which is why it is so fascinating. I think Nate Duncan has mentioned he thinks Simmons is negative value on a max contract. I think it's a guarantee Harden will be negative value on a super max. I think there's a chance even on a normal max, he's considered a negative asset in a couple of years.
tharris snaps.
   2405. a 57i66135 with a grenade still has a grenade Posted: February 07, 2022 at 01:11 PM (#6064094)
Bait accepted. The Bulls had no business being in that game and keeping it close, what with their top 4 guards all out and the first 3 guys off the bench being guys they literally signed off the street this year. Yet, the only reason the Sixers won was due to 3pt variance - 12/24 vs 7/26.
oh. were any of those players a 25 year old perennial all-star, DPOY candidate?

i'll hang up and listen.
   2406. asinwreck Posted: February 07, 2022 at 01:20 PM (#6064097)
Marc Berman @NYPost_Berman
Thibodeau said the computer altercation between assistant Scott King and Julius Randle on bench was “resolved.” “Computers are part of the NBA. It’s heat of the moment.”
   2407. PJ Martinez Posted: February 07, 2022 at 01:24 PM (#6064098)
were any of those players a 25 year old perennial all-star, DPOY candidate?
No one by that description plays for the Sixers, last I checked.
   2408. tshipman Posted: February 07, 2022 at 01:25 PM (#6064099)
Computers are part of the NBA.


I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of hot takes suddenly cried out in terror. I fear something terrible has happened.
   2409. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: February 07, 2022 at 01:42 PM (#6064104)
oh. were any of those players a 25 year old perennial all-star, DPOY candidate?

i'll hang up and listen.


That's funny. OTOH, hmmm...
   2410. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: February 07, 2022 at 02:03 PM (#6064105)
"Computer altercation"?
   2411. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 07, 2022 at 02:09 PM (#6064106)
I'm not sure Monk is that good. He's having a good year, but this is his first year with an above average TS+. He generates a reasonable amount of his own shots, but he doesn't create for others much, doesn't offensive rebound. He's been a good shooter the last 2 years but the other years count too, and his career 3pt% is .354.

He strikes me as an offense first role player who has value, but that's about as far as I'd go.

I don't think there's a real contender where he'd be their 3rd best player on offense.


Since Christmas, Monk has been avering 17.5 ppg on 50/46/78 shooting. He has been been doing better in an expanded role. Who was the Lakers 3rd best player on offense in the bubble? KCP? He's better than KCP. He was a lottery pick and could potentially be breaking out offensively.
   2412. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: February 07, 2022 at 02:13 PM (#6064109)
It’s heat of the moment.
Sounds like that computer needs a new fan and/or a RAM upgrade.
   2413. asinwreck Posted: February 07, 2022 at 02:18 PM (#6064110)
I hope that the local media follow up with Thibs to see if he is a fan of Asia's first LP.
   2414. Mike A Posted: February 07, 2022 at 02:36 PM (#6064115)
Thibs went on to say 'Only time will tell with Randle going forward. I told Julius 'don't cry' but I'm afraid the smile has left his eyes.'

Poor Cam Reddish. Asked out of ATL to get more playing time, and now he's barely getting garbage minutes. Why did the Knicks make the trade?
   2415. spivey Posted: February 07, 2022 at 02:41 PM (#6064116)
Since Christmas, Monk has been avering 17.5 ppg on 50/46/78 shooting. He has been been doing better in an expanded role. Who was the Lakers 3rd best player on offense in the bubble? KCP? He's better than KCP. He was a lottery pick and could potentially be breaking out offensively.


Why use 5 years of data when you can use 5 weeks?
   2416. tshipman Posted: February 07, 2022 at 03:24 PM (#6064123)
Why use 5 years of data when you can use 5 weeks?


Monk's career so far looks a lot more like a player who has found a role and had their shooting catch up to the predictors. While his performance from three years ago is certainly relevant, he has shot his last 500 3s at a 40% clip.

Since that 40% rate is broadly in line with his college numbers and FT%, it looks more real to me than the early career struggles of a young player.
   2417. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: February 07, 2022 at 03:27 PM (#6064124)
I thought for sure that Cleveland would go for a distributor after Rubio got injured (maybe they still will). A couple of podcasts have described Levert as a ball-stopper, but his assists look fine, and his usage isn't obnoxiously high.
   2418. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 07, 2022 at 03:40 PM (#6064125)
Why use 5 years of data when you can use 5 weeks?

For one thing, his numbers for the entire year are quite good from a shooting perspective: (47/41/79). Part of his increase in production is playing time as he is avergaing 32 minutes a game since Christmas, comared to 24.

He's also 24 years and playing with a different team and in a different role. It's not unheard that a guy like that takes a leap to a new level.
   2419. tshipman Posted: February 07, 2022 at 03:49 PM (#6064127)
WTF?

From a recent Ramona Shelbourne article:

Harden hasn't had an agent in several years, but he does have a business manager, Lorenzo McCloud. When Harden wanted out of Houston before the 2020 season, he commissioned agents Jason Ranne and Chafie Fields at Wasserman to work with the Houston Rockets and rival teams to facilitate a trade. They played a key role in getting Harden to the Nets, and then the working relationship ended in March of 2021, sources said.


This seems incredibly foolish by Harden.
   2420. spivey Posted: February 07, 2022 at 03:50 PM (#6064128)
The number of guys who are true 40% 3pt shooters is very small. For currently active players who have played meaningful minutes, it's like 14 players. And doesn't include guys like McCollum, Middleton, KAT, Patty Mills, Kyrie Irving, Kawhi, Durant, etc.

I don't have a problem saying that Monk should be expected to be a better shooter than .354 going forward. I would say that. That doesn't mean we should be throwing out a lot of catch-and-shoot 3s from an already limited sample that aren't that long ago because they don't fit the curve nicely. They happened. They mean something. And part of what they mean is, if he is that good of a 3pt shooter, it's very weird that he was a shitty one for 3 years.

Even if he is a good shooter, I don't think that makes him a great 3rd option. I don't think he'd be the 3rd offensive option on most contenders this year.
   2421. PJ Martinez Posted: February 07, 2022 at 03:50 PM (#6064129)
Re: the different role (2418), Monk's usage is down a bit from previous years, which makes sense, and might contribute to the increased efficiency -- I haven't watched him much, but it certainly seems possible he's taking better shots than he used to.
I don't think he'd be the 3rd offensive option on most contenders this year.
This is also probably true. Granted, when the first two options are LBJ and Anthony Davis, then, in theory, the third option doesn't necessarily have to be great. But also worth keeping in mind that, to date, the Lakers have the league's 24th-best offense.
   2422. tshipman Posted: February 07, 2022 at 03:58 PM (#6064130)
The number of guys who are true 40% 3pt shooters is very small. For currently active players who have played meaningful minutes, it's like 14 players. And doesn't include guys like McCollum, Middleton, KAT, Patty Mills, Kyrie Irving, Kawhi, Durant, etc.

I don't have a problem saying that Monk should be expected to be a better shooter than .354 going forward. I would say that. That doesn't mean we should be throwing out a lot of catch-and-shoot 3s from an already limited sample that aren't that long ago because they don't fit the curve nicely. They happened. They mean something. And part of what they mean is, if he is that good of a 3pt shooter, it's very weird that he was a shitty one for 3 years.


Sure, I think his true talent is probably between .354 and .409 and it's hard to say exactly where.

I don't think he'd be the 3rd offensive option on most contenders this year.
This is also probably true? Worth keeping in mind that, to date, the Lakers have the league's 24th-best offense.


The Lakers are also the only team that is even trying to seriously contend as a "big two".
   2423. PJ Martinez Posted: February 07, 2022 at 04:01 PM (#6064134)
Yeah, I edited my post while you were responding to make something like that point (about the Big Two).
   2424. tshipman Posted: February 07, 2022 at 04:04 PM (#6064135)
I think both points are fundamentally fair:

Malik Monk is probably the third best player on the Lakers, and if you think they are a contender, then he is the nominal "third best player" on a contender, with a ton of asterisks.

One of those asterisks is that the Lakers are more of a contender for the play-in than the championship.
   2425. smileyy Posted: February 07, 2022 at 04:06 PM (#6064138)
The Lakers are also the only team that is even trying to seriously contend as a "big two".


Is Ayton/Biyombo the Big Third for PHX?
   2426. tshipman Posted: February 07, 2022 at 04:20 PM (#6064140)
My understanding/belief of how each of the contenders are trying to win the championship:

Phoenix: Detroit model. No one on the team has overwhelming stats, as can be seen by the lack of all-star starters. Defense first team that has a committee based approach to scoring. Booker has the highest usage on the team, but even his is only 32 (and lower when he and CP share the court)
Warriors: Big three. Honestly, could be closer to the Detroit model, but Curry is too important for that to be a great fit.
Memphis: Big three, with Ja, JJJ and Bane.
Utah: Big two, Gobert and Mitchell.
Heat: Big three, Jimmy, Bam and Lowry
Bulls: Big three, Zach, DeMar, Vucevic
Bucks: Big three, Giannis, Jrue and Middleton
Cavs: Big three (?), Garland, Jarett Allen and Mobley? The Cavs didn't really plan on contending this year, so it's hard to tell.
   2427. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: February 07, 2022 at 04:43 PM (#6064143)
Jazz are big three with Conley if guys like Lowry count. Also might put Bridges as part of a big 3 on Phoenix.
   2428. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: February 07, 2022 at 04:48 PM (#6064145)
I'd throw onto the list that the Clippers intended to contend with a big two, depending on what you believe their internal knowledge of Kawhi's injury timeline was. For Cleveland, I'd say "found money" is probably a more accurate label than "Big n" for all values of n.
   2429. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: February 07, 2022 at 04:53 PM (#6064148)
Also, just for funsies, if one wanted to use optimistic priors and post-Christmas stats, it takes surprisingly little squinting before the Celtics start looking like a big-two contender:
@statmuse
The Celtics in 2022:

— 1st in net rating
— 1st in defensive rating
— 1st in opponent eFG%
— 13-6 record
— Tatum averaging 26/8/5
— Brown averaging 25/7/4


They've had an easy January, and the start of February remains soft, so we'll see how well the numbers hold up after the all star break, but the defense at least has been the real deal.
   2430. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: February 07, 2022 at 05:05 PM (#6064150)
On the other end of the defensive spectrum:

The Bulls continue to tread water (8-10 over the last month) as they play shorthanded. They’re without Lonzo Ball, Alex Caruso, Derrick Jones Jr. and Patrick Williams long-term, and have also been missing Zach LaVine and Coby White for the last two games. The absences have affected them most on defense. In fact, they rank fourth offensively and 28th defensively over the last month, with their five worst defensive games of the season having come over that stretch.

The latest of those was Sunday, when the Bulls lost to Philly despite a season-high 45 points (and seven assists) from DeMar DeRozan, with the Sixers shooting 26-for-40 (65%) in the paint and 12-for-24 (50%) from beyond the arc. Over the last 31 days, the Bulls rank 25th in opponent field goal percentage in the paint (59.1%), 30th in opponent 3-point percentage (38.7%), and 29th in opponent turnover rate (12.0 per 100 possessions).


There's bad luck there, but also it's obvious how the injuries are leading to that.
   2431. tshipman Posted: February 07, 2022 at 05:14 PM (#6064152)
Also, just for funsies, if one wanted to use optimistic priors and post-Christmas stats, it takes surprisingly little squinting before the Celtics start looking like a big-two contender:


I'd throw onto the list that the Clippers intended to contend with a big two


8th seeds are not contenders.

Jazz are big three with Conley if guys like Lowry count. Also might put Bridges as part of a big 3 on Phoenix.


If I were picking a "big three" for the Jazz, I'd put Bojan on before Conley. Bojan plays more minutes, takes more shots, etc. Probably, I should list the Jazz as a "Detroit model".
   2432. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: February 07, 2022 at 05:21 PM (#6064153)
8th seeds are not contenders
how each of the contenders are trying, jennifer to win the championship
   2433. a 57i66135 with a grenade still has a grenade Posted: February 07, 2022 at 05:29 PM (#6064154)
Kyle Neubeck @KyleNeubeck
Embiid on the Simmons situation: “the notion about guys getting called out and whatever; i just don’t see it that way. You look at the comments that were made…i didn’t call out anybody specifically out, i just called a bunch of events that happened”
Kyle Neubeck @KyleNeubeck
Embiid was just diplomatic enough to convince a few people with Sixers-colored glasses on to convince themselves Ben could come back and play for them, but it's pretty clear his overall mindset here is that anyone who can't take the heat should get out of the kitchen
Derek Bodner @DerekBodnerNBA
Joel Embiid, to @MikeMiss25, on whether he'd welcome Simmons back: "I mean, honestly, I'm trying to win. I'm trying to win a championship. Whatever's gonna help me achieve that, I'm fine with whatever. I've always said that, obviously, we're a better team with him on the floor."
   2434. jmurph Posted: February 07, 2022 at 05:49 PM (#6064155)
I'm not totally following the Big 2/3 distinction, because the Lakers certainly didn't intend to compete this year as only a Big 2. Whereas the Clippers are actually built around just Kawhi and George (I mean I agree with the point that LAC are not currently contenders due to the injuries, but I think there are several teams in post 2426 that aren't real contenders, either).
   2435. tshipman Posted: February 07, 2022 at 06:15 PM (#6064158)
I'm not totally following the Big 2/3 distinction, because the Lakers certainly didn't intend to compete this year as only a Big 2. Whereas the Clippers are actually built around just Kawhi and George (I mean I agree with the point that LAC are not currently contenders due to the injuries, but I think there are several teams in post 2426 that aren't real contenders, either).


I just took the top 4 in each conference, in part to be neutral, and in part to avoid trying to categorize the Sixers who are weird. I excluded the Clippers as "trying" to contend based on Ty Lue's comments that they didn't expect Kawhi this year. I have no idea how true that is, but Ty had no real reason to lie about it.

Edit: I do think the "big three" model is the most popular in front offices for whatever reason.
   2436. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: February 07, 2022 at 06:45 PM (#6064161)
Not to be flip, but the likely reason IMO is that there are many more players who can be 1/3 of a championship core than there are who can be 1/2 (even LeBron and Wilt came up short as a big ones), and they're much easier to acquire. The margins for building a championship-level team without multiple obvious tentpole stars are razor-thin, so while historical precedents exist, there aren't many.
   2437. tshipman Posted: February 07, 2022 at 07:49 PM (#6064171)
Not to be flip, but the likely reason IMO is that there are many more players who can be 1/3 of a championship core than there are who can be 1/2 (even LeBron and Wilt came up short as a big ones), and they're much easier to acquire. The margins for building a championship-level team without multiple obvious tentpole stars are razor-thin, so while historical precedents exist, there aren't many.


I think FOs are also drawn to the idea of resiliency. The Nets acquiring Harden last year, for example.

The issue, of course, is that the idea that a 3 star team is more resilient than a 2 star team is not really true, I think. Like, the Lakers are ###### if AD or LeBron go down, it's true, but it's not like the Bucks without Giannis are winning a playoff series either, despite the fact that they have Jrue and Middleton.

It's also not entirely clear to me that it's easier to acquire two all-stars vs. one superstar. The Bucks had to trade about the same package for Jrue that the Lakers had to trade for AD. You can quibble about that--the Bucks gave up 4 firsts vs. 3, and Bledsoe vs. Lonzo/Hart/Ingram. But I guess my point would be that you still get held over a barrel to acquire an third all-star. I guess you could make the point that some teams simply cannot trade for superstars, but I think that 2019 Toronto kind of challenges that POV.

I guess my overall point is that FOs focus too much on the "big 3" model when it's debatable that it's easier to put together or more effective in the playoffs.
   2438. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: February 07, 2022 at 08:19 PM (#6064174)
I think FOs are also drawn to the idea of resiliency. The Nets acquiring Harden last year, for example.

The issue, of course, is that the idea that a 3 star team is more resilient than a 2 star team is not really true, I think. Like, the Lakers are ###### if AD or LeBron go down, it's true, but it's not like the Bucks without Giannis are winning a playoff series either, despite the fact that they have Jrue and Middleton.

It's also not entirely clear to me that it's easier to acquire two all-stars vs. one superstar.

I wasn't saying that a three-star team is more resilient than a two-star team; I think the opposite is true. My point about resiliency was about "great ecosystem of players rather than ecosystem of great players" contenders, without multiple tentpole stars (whether two or three): they are much easier to derail. The general idea is that the more players a team can afford to lose while keeping the same basic profile, the more resilient they are.

As to "it's easier to acquire two all-stars than one superstar", the reasoning is also fairly straightforward: there are a lot more all-stars than superstars. It's much easier to draft a pair of them, for example, in which case you don't need to trade for two of anything but role players. There's also the facts that the trade price of stars varies widely, is heavily dependent on timing and circumstance, and stars of all levels occasionally decide (sometimes years in advance) to force a trade to a specific team, leaving everyone else in the lurch, regardless of their trade package or supporting cast; whether a given team is playing the star acquisition game on hard, normal, or easy mode, having more potential trade targets means the opportunity cost of missing or being priced out of any specific star trade is lower.
   2439. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 07, 2022 at 11:07 PM (#6064183)
For as bad as the Lakers season has gone, the Lakers are still 10-6 with LeBron and Anthony Davis in the lineup together. AD has looked really good the last few games.

I still think the Lakers can win a title this year if LBJ and AD play to their 2020 level. They are still IMHO the best duo in the league especially considering they complement each other so well. This next week with the Warriors and Bucks on the schedule is going to be an interesting barometer of where they are at.
   2440. smileyy Posted: February 07, 2022 at 11:28 PM (#6064185)
In a game they lost by 3 points, every Bulls starter other than Zach Lavine was a -17 or worse. 5 bench players were a +10 or better. Looks like a really weird game from the box score.
   2441. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: February 08, 2022 at 09:07 AM (#6064191)
it's not like the Bucks without Giannis are winning a playoff series either,

They kinda won the ECF last year without him, but your point stands.

In a game they lost by 3 points, every Bulls starter other than Zach Lavine was a -17 or worse. 5 bench players were a +10 or better. Looks like a really weird game from the box score.

Garbage time illusion. Unlike the tightly contested game against the Sixers the day before, the Bulls were never really in this game even though LaVine and White were back. The Suns basically toyed with them all night - Javale McGee hit a 3 for goodness sake - and the Bulls had no chance.
   2442. spivey Posted: February 08, 2022 at 09:23 AM (#6064193)
They kinda won the ECF last year without him, but your point stands.


Glad I didn't have to say it. The Spurs eliminated OKC in a playoff series in the Old Spurs era without Tony Parker for the deciding game, who was unquestionably the engine of the offense. I remember people saying, including here, they couldn't do that. I'm not sure how much it ultimately affects team building, but guys get hurt and miss just a game or two plenty, or have to play games or a whole series less than 100%, and you may need everyone else to step up and win one of those games.
   2443. jmurph Posted: February 08, 2022 at 09:28 AM (#6064194)
We're just blowing right past the Trae Young situation in the ECF, eh?
   2444. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: February 08, 2022 at 10:02 AM (#6064197)
I liked the Monk pickup by LA and still do. But, even if this is something like his new level of ability, you’re looking at a sieve on d and at a guy who doesn’t create for others. He has one skill - a useful, keepable skill! - and that’s it.
No contender should start him unless forced to by bad options or extreme issues of fit.

Harden: tbf, harden hasn’t needed one in awhile. Soon he might.
   2445. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: February 08, 2022 at 10:23 AM (#6064202)
DerK - I keep meaning to tell you, Tony Bradley is garbage. That's all.

---

Shams Charania @ShamsCharania ·2m
The New Orleans Pelicans are finalizing a deal to acquire Portland Trail Blazers guard CJ McCollum for a package around Josh Hart and draft compensation, sources tell @TheAthletic @Stadium.


Woj was first to say they were talking. Regardless, the Blazers really, really want Dame to demand a trade, right? NO is really prioritizing getting to the play in. Does this mean they think Zion is more or less likely to play this year?
   2446. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: February 08, 2022 at 10:30 AM (#6064205)
I like to think that I don't think "title or bust" when it gets into the weeds of NBA team building...BUT...any time a team below contender status makes a move I also find myself wondering "why bother?" Like should the Cavs be giving up pick 20 to get LeVert when they are just going to lose in the first round this year? Shouldn't they be thinking longer term? And should the Pelicans be giving up any picks at all to get McCollum at his salary when this year's ceiling seems to be the 9 seed?
   2447. PJ Martinez Posted: February 08, 2022 at 10:37 AM (#6064207)
I agree that the Cavs should be thinking long term, but I'm not at all taking it for granted that they'll lose in the first round. I mean, maybe, but I think literally any team in the East might end up losing in the first round, given some of the matchups we could see.
   2448. jmurph Posted: February 08, 2022 at 10:50 AM (#6064210)
I have mixed feelings on the specific move for McCollum, but I feel pretty strongly that David Griffin shouldn't be the one making it!
   2449. jmurph Posted: February 08, 2022 at 11:07 AM (#6064212)
Man Portland is having a terrible start to the rebuild.
   2450. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: February 08, 2022 at 11:09 AM (#6064213)
Dame for Simmons on the table now?
   2451. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: February 08, 2022 at 11:11 AM (#6064214)
point taken, moses! he's definitely taken a step or two back this year..

cj is a nice player (and seems like a fine person) but that contract is no bueno. i'm glad portland is finally fire sale-ing.
   2452. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: February 08, 2022 at 11:17 AM (#6064215)
point taken, moses! he's definitely taken a step or two back this year..

Hands of stone, every pick is illegal, not strong so gets pushed around, can't handle the ball at all....but he can block some shots. Supposedly Bulls are trying to get Poeltl, who would be a huge upgrade over Bradley and arguably would steal plenty of time from Vuc too. Also supposedly Bulls want Schoder, so I guess that means Coby is bait for a better big. Not sure why the C's would move him now - just to get under the tax would be lame.

---

Woj tried to say the CJ trade isn't done, but could be. Shams comes back with the specifics of the deal (Hart, Alexander-Walker, Sato, picks). Then Woj says it's done, and Snell, Nance going to NO too, along with 1 first (protected outside of 5-14) and 2 seconds.

I almost enjoy the Woj/Shams stuff as much as the trades.
   2453. tshipman Posted: February 08, 2022 at 11:18 AM (#6064217)
I can't believe that McCollum's contract is being treated as positive value.

I liked the Monk pickup by LA and still do. But, even if this is something like his new level of ability, you’re looking at a sieve on d and at a guy who doesn’t create for others. He has one skill - a useful, keepable skill! - and that’s it.
No contender should start him unless forced to by bad options or extreme issues of fit.


I think that's a pretty big overbid. He's totally playable as the fifth starter. He'd start on the Bucks, the Cavs, the Mavs, maybe a few other teams. He's the spiritual successor to JR Smith, and the Cavs made like 4 finals starting JR.
   2454. spivey Posted: February 08, 2022 at 11:19 AM (#6064218)
Think that's a good trade for New Orleans.

--

Not sure if we discussed the LeVert trade much. I like that for Indiana a lot. I get it for Cleveland. They need someone who can create and don't have that with Rubio. But if you're trying to build a contender in 2-3 years, and they should be, you don't want 40 million dollars going to Markkanen and LeVert. They need to be very thoughtful on what they do to fill out the roster before they have to pay big monies to Garland and Mobley.

--

Re: 2443. No, that's a fair point. Young did play in Game 6, though. In Game 5, he didn't, but they lost by double digits despite getting pretty positive 3 point shooting luck. I guess at the end of the day, I felt, Giannis better than Trae, and when the teams had to play without them, Milwaukee was better.
   2455. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: February 08, 2022 at 11:20 AM (#6064219)
I like to think that I don't think "title or bust" when it gets into the weeds of NBA team building...BUT...any time a team below contender status makes a move I also find myself wondering "why bother?" Like should the Cavs be giving up pick 20 to get LeVert when they are just going to lose in the first round this year? Shouldn't they be thinking longer term? And should the Pelicans be giving up any picks at all to get McCollum at his salary when this year's ceiling seems to be the 9 seed?

Yeah, you're really underrating the Cavs here. They have plenty of space and money, aren't gonna attract actual FAs, and there's value to getting to the playoffs (they likely are gonna host a first round series and will be favored in it).

The Pels...well, that's a different story. Maybe they're trying to convince Zion to stay, but is that what they should be doing? The trade isn't completely brutal, but it's not great.
   2456. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: February 08, 2022 at 11:21 AM (#6064220)
Not sure if we discussed the LeVert trade much. I like that for Indiana a lot. I get it for Cleveland. They need someone who can create and don't have that with Rubio. But if you're trying to build a contender in 2-3 years, and they should be, you don't want 40 million dollars going to Markkanen and LeVert. They need to be very thoughtful on what they do to fill out the roster before they have to pay big monies to Garland and Mobley.

LeVert is only 2 more years, and properly paid. He helps now, and can continue to serve as trade fodder again. He doesn't hamper any of that building, IMO. Lauri, OTOH...

EDIT: Not that I'm suggesting this, but this (plus picks) is something the Cavs can do at some point in the future for a player along those lines.
   2457. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: February 08, 2022 at 11:25 AM (#6064222)
Hands of stone, every pick is illegal, not strong so gets pushed around, can't handle the ball at all....but he can block some shots.

Yup!
At peak, he's also an excellent rebounder, a decent roll scorer, and a surprisingly good passer (just not a ballhandler).
--
Those specifics are better for NO than i was expecting. Gonna mull a bit.
(edit:) Read more about the pick. I like this for Portland.
---
Monk: yeah, it was a bit of an overbid. Totally playable as a fifth starter is probably true -- but! a contender should avoid playing a guy with defense that's that bad in their starting lineup. (Can he learn better d? Of course.) If, say, Dante D wasn't wet trash this year, you start that over Monk, for instance.
Smith had a lot better peripheral skills than Monk, imo. Monk is probably a better decision maker.
--
spivey on Levert:
I like that for Indiana a lot. I get it for Cleveland.

I think that's about right.
   2458. asinwreck Posted: February 08, 2022 at 11:26 AM (#6064223)
you don't want 40 million dollars going to Markkanen and LeVert

I remain confused about why the Cavs paid Markkanen. I suppose having Allen and Mobley reduces the defensive problems Markkanen brings to the floor, but you don't want him at the 3 either.

Long-term, the core looks to be Mobley-Allen-Garland. The big question for me (other than what Markkanen and his contract is doing on this team) is what Sexton might bring back in trade.
   2459. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: February 08, 2022 at 11:31 AM (#6064225)
At peak, he's also an excellent rebounder, a decent roll scorer, and a surprisingly good passer (just not a ballhandler).

He has not been that this year. That's all cratered* and he's a guaranteed turnover in any sort of roll play - love to have a guy whose TO% goes up when his usage goes down.

*His reb numbers haven't changed much, but the Bulls are significantly worse as a team rebounding with him out there instead of Vuc:
Will Gottlieb @wontgottlieb ·Feb 3
Bulls DReb% with Vucevic on the floor is 76%. Without him, it drops to 70.3%

For context, Pels/Nugs lead NBA in DReb% at 75.1, Wolves/Raps are last at 70.3

Bulls effectively go from best defensive rebounding team in the league with Vooch on the floor to the worst without him


Bradley doesn't get all the non-Vuc center minutes, but he gets most of them.
   2460. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: February 08, 2022 at 11:33 AM (#6064226)
That's why I said at peak. He's having a bad year, no question. (And I'm obviously paying way less attention to the Bulls than you, so you can more deeply appreciate how he's not working out.)

You know which other young minimum wage center (that I liked) was available and would have helped you a lot more? Hartenstein. Much more similar to Vooch in terms of how you plan a defense (though he fouls everything and everyone).
   2461. tshipman Posted: February 08, 2022 at 11:34 AM (#6064227)
The Pels...well, that's a different story. Maybe they're trying to convince Zion to stay, but is that what they should be doing? The trade isn't completely brutal, but it's not great.


This is 1000% just a "Save Griff's job" trade.
   2462. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: February 08, 2022 at 11:36 AM (#6064228)
Yeah, you're really underrating the Cavs here. They have plenty of space and money, aren't gonna attract actual FAs, and there's value to getting to the playoffs (they likely are gonna host a first round series and will be favored in it).


I get what you're saying until the end. I'll be super duper surprised if the Cavs are favored to win their first round series. (There are enough injury minefields out there that "super duper" is a stretch but I'll stick with it.)
   2463. tshipman Posted: February 08, 2022 at 11:39 AM (#6064229)
I think the Cavs would be favored against anyone in the East who is not the Heat, Bucks, 76ers or maybe the Nets. The Nets depend a lot on health stuff.
   2464. spivey Posted: February 08, 2022 at 12:00 PM (#6064233)
I think that's a pretty big overbid. He's totally playable as the fifth starter. He'd start on the Bucks, the Cavs, the Mavs, maybe a few other teams. He's the spiritual successor to JR Smith, and the Cavs made like 4 finals starting JR.


I think Connaughton is better than Monk. I think DiVincenzo last year and the year before was too.

--

Cleveland - I think they could get FAs. I'm still of the belief players want to be paid fairly and win. Love didn't have a problem getting traded there when LeBron went back. Now, they don't have LeBron, but if you can play with a few young all-stars, that's pretty tempting. There aren't a lot of teams that can offer both FA money and a competitive team.

Moses, Levert is just signed through next year. So he'll be an expiring if they look to deal him next year. He's about fairly paid, but I don't want more years of it. I don't see being able to get anywhere near what they got here. Though the Sexton point brought up is good. They may be able to get a protected first or good 2nd for him.
   2465. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: February 08, 2022 at 12:10 PM (#6064237)
Since we discussed Suggs a few pages back, Hollinger had a few paragraphs on him this week.

If there’s something to hang his hat on while the offense comes around, it’s Suggs’ ability to defend. He’s strong enough to check bigger players on switches, and his size and competitiveness make him an obstacle at the point of attack.


Orlando has had a string of defensive-minded PGs who can't score (Elfrid Payton, Fultz), so hopefully Suggs can exceed that.
   2466. jmurph Posted: February 08, 2022 at 12:10 PM (#6064238)
I think this is not going to work but I actually have a lot of respect for it:
Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn
Portland's plan is to fully reshape roster around Damian Lillard now. Portland created a $21M trade exception today, potentially $60M in salary cap space this summer, multiple draft picks and assets via Pels and Clippers trades. Plan is to pursue high-end talent now, not retreat.
   2467. jmurph Posted: February 08, 2022 at 12:13 PM (#6064239)
Also supposedly Bulls want Schoder, so I guess that means Coby is bait for a better big. Not sure why the C's would move him now - just to get under the tax would be lame.

The Celtics are indeed trying to dump Schroder for a bad reason- to duck the tax- but there's a perfectly good reason to dump Schroder, which is that he's not good (and infuriating to watch).
   2468. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: February 08, 2022 at 12:29 PM (#6064241)
I'm no Schroder fan, but he's a solid player at that price + ducking the tax makes sense to me for a team that's blech. Besides, no one sees him as a long term piece.
   2469. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: February 08, 2022 at 12:37 PM (#6064242)
I think this is not going to work but I actually have a lot of respect for it:

Relevant:
Mark Deeks @MarkDeeksNBA ·1h
The last time the Blazers had significant cap room, they gave out $400 million to McCollum, Evan Turner, Allen Crabbe, Mo Harkless, Meyers Leonard and Festus Ezeli.


---

Billy seems to like Schroder, and he's probably more consistent than Coby White at this stage (for better or worse). It doesn't make sense for the Bulls unless White is being moved elsewhere though.
   2470. An Athletic in Powderhorn, Silly Posted: February 08, 2022 at 12:38 PM (#6064243)
Plan is to pursue high-end talent now, not retreat.
OK, no retreat. How about a strategic withdrawal? I'd like to add high-end talent, too. But I have as much chance to win a playoff series this year as the Blazers do. So that's not a good use of my resources.
   2471. jmurph Posted: February 08, 2022 at 12:44 PM (#6064244)
But I have as much chance to win a playoff series this year as the Blazers do. So that's not a good use of my resources.

They're talking about next year.

But yeah, again, I don't expect it to work.
   2472. PJ Martinez Posted: February 08, 2022 at 12:46 PM (#6064246)
I'm no Schroder fan, but he's a solid player at that price + ducking the tax makes sense to me for a team that's blech. Besides, no one sees him as a long term piece.
Yeah, I don't hate watching Schroder play as much now that Udoka has (mostly) gone away from playing him with Smart, a former late-game pairing that had predictably terrible results. I think dumping him now could be a small step back -- they may just give his backup ballhandling duties to Richardson, reportedly, which isn't a bad idea, but some of his minutes will have to go to young guys (Pritchard, Langford, Nesmith), all of whom have played badly. Maybe those guys will play better, and it'd be nice to give them a chance to improve and see what they've got, but it could definitely go poorly.

I also sometimes get the impression that Tatum and Brown don't love playing with Schroder (oh great, another guy always looking for his shot), but I could be projecting.

I've seen the argument that Schroder may not get a meaningfully better offer than what Boston could pay him this offseason, and while I still think he winds up somewhere else, it's not an outlandish scenario.
   2473. tshipman Posted: February 08, 2022 at 01:08 PM (#6064249)
I don't understand how you're building around Dame in an offseason after shipping out all the talent and draft picks you have.

There aren't any big name FAs available. Are you going to just make big offers to RFAs like Collin Sexton and Miles Bridges?
   2474. jmurph Posted: February 08, 2022 at 01:29 PM (#6064254)
KAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANGZ!
   2475. bob gee Posted: February 08, 2022 at 01:35 PM (#6064257)
sabonis, lamb and holiday for haliburton, hield and tristan thompson.
per woj
   2476. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: February 08, 2022 at 01:45 PM (#6064261)
The Kings are just so bad that I assumed they'd just sell a piece or two and regroup in the offseason. But they didn't!
   2477. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: February 08, 2022 at 01:48 PM (#6064263)
KAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANGZ!!!!

ETA I owe jmurph a coke, I guess
   2478. aberg Posted: February 08, 2022 at 01:48 PM (#6064264)
The theme of today is losing teams giving up draft picks and young players for expensive players in their primes who won't even push them into playoff contention.
   2479. jmurph Posted: February 08, 2022 at 01:51 PM (#6064266)
ETA I owe jmurph a coke, I guess

Feel like you can never have too much of this, so no coke necessary.

I would think Holmes should now be available? And Hield or Brogdon in Indy?
   2480. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: February 08, 2022 at 01:52 PM (#6064267)
Brogdon can't be moved until the offseason, right? It feels like the writing is on the wall there. Hield should be bounced this season, I would expect. Dang. Indy doing stuff.
   2481. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: February 08, 2022 at 01:54 PM (#6064268)
Fox/Mitchell/?/Barnes/Sabonis, for now? What is even the Hell?
   2482. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: February 08, 2022 at 01:54 PM (#6064269)
Quietly, slowly, unobtrusively ... the Wovles are no longer the dumbest franchise in the NBA?
   2483. tshipman Posted: February 08, 2022 at 01:57 PM (#6064272)
sabonis, lamb and holiday for haliburton, hield and tristan thompson.
per woj


WTF, Kangz?

Quietly, slowly, unobtrusively ... the Wovles are no longer the dumbest franchise in the NBA?


The Kangz have held that title for like 15 years.
   2484. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: February 08, 2022 at 01:59 PM (#6064275)
There aren't any big name FAs available. Are you going to just make big offers to RFAs like Collin Sexton and Miles Bridges?

Refer to post 2469. So, yes.

####### Kings. WTF. Poor, poor Sabonis.

I want the Bulls to get Holmes.
   2485. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: February 08, 2022 at 02:00 PM (#6064276)
Kinda fitting that the Blazers finally split up Dame/CJ and the Paces Sabonis/Turner on the same day. Both were years in the making.
   2486. tshipman Posted: February 08, 2022 at 02:00 PM (#6064277)
Great point that I had not considered:

Does this mean that the Kings valued Domantas Sabonis higher than Ben Simmons?
   2487. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: February 08, 2022 at 02:02 PM (#6064278)
John Schuhmann @johnschuhmann ·11m
Best pull-up 3P% (100+ attempts)...

1. Conley: 43.5%
2. Haliburton: 40.1%

https://nba.com/stats/players/shots-general/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular Season&PerMode=Totals&GeneralRange=Pullups&sort=FG3_PCT&dir=1&CF=FG3A*GE*100

7+ AST/G, AST/TO ratio > 3.0

1. Paul: 10.4, 4.53
2. Murray: 9.2, 3.65
3. Haliburton: 7.4, 3.30

John Schuhmann @johnschuhmann ·3m
Players who have shot 40% or better on 200+ 3PA in each of the last 2 seasons (w/ total 3P%)...

1. Kennard: 43.6%
2. Seth Curry: 42.9%
3. Bane: 42.1%
4. Conley: 41.7%
5. LaVine: 41.2%
6. Haliburton: 41.1%
7. Powell: 41.0%
8. Fournier: 40.7%
9. Monk: 40.5%

Kirk Goldsberry @kirkgoldsberry ·11m
5 Haliburton Notes
1. 93 players have tried at least 300 jumpers this year, he ranks 6th in efficiency (58.7 eFG%)
2. 49 players have tried at least 100 off-the-dribble 3s - he's 2nd in 3P% (40.6%)
3. He makes 42.6% of his catch-and-shoot 3s
4. He's 11th in assists
5. He's 21


It's a KANGZ pile on.
   2488. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: February 08, 2022 at 02:15 PM (#6064281)
So, apparently Justin holiday is unvaccinated / ineligible to play in home games for the Kings? Smart.
   2489. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: February 08, 2022 at 02:24 PM (#6064286)
Hands of stone, every pick is illegal, not strong so gets pushed around, can't handle the ball at all....but he can block some shots.


So he's the same player he was on the Jazz. What a dumb pick (even at the time) and picking up his option was even worse.

Also WTF are the Kings doing. Sabonis is good of course, but I'd much much rather have Haliburton.
   2490. spivey Posted: February 08, 2022 at 02:58 PM (#6064289)
FWIW, I think Sabonis is a bit underrated and Haliburton is a bit overrated. Haliburton has a nice 3pt%, but even with it, his usage is low, his TS% is only good (doesn't get to the line or put pressure on the rim and his 3pt volume is only ok in today's game), and his +/- numbers have been meh each of the last two years.

I think Haliburton is probably more valuable because of age and contract. But I don't think he's better than Sabonis.
   2491. jmurph Posted: February 08, 2022 at 03:01 PM (#6064293)
I think Sabonis is really good and I get targeting him as a building block if you're the Kings. I also just can't imagine them getting their act together enough to do it right.

EDIT: coke to spivey, I'm pretty much on board with 2490.
   2492. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: February 08, 2022 at 03:02 PM (#6064294)
okay, more bradley defending: he went 28th in the draft and has been better than the 28th best player out of that draft.
plus motor. he looked at the time of the draft like he had potential as a midrange guy. he's a limited player but his advanced stats have been consistently decent to good (for instance, if you look at raptor he's been above average every year of his career -- including this one. darko has bradley as basically league average ... and most players rate as below average due to how more minutes go to better players. and so on...).
is he a stud? no. do you want to upgrade on him if you can? sure. is he better than a minimum wage player? yes.
   2493. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: February 08, 2022 at 03:04 PM (#6064295)
Assuming Larry Nance Jr looks to be healthy for the second half, I'm thinking New Orleans will trade either Jaxson Hayes or Willy Hernangomez for a guard/wing. Jaxson Hayes for Coby White would be a fun change-of-scenery/challenge trade for two guys who were consecutive picks in the same draft, though the Caruso and Lonzo injuries complicate things. Maybe that's where Schroder comes in to give the Bulls a temporary PG and get the Celtics out of the tax.
   2494. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: February 08, 2022 at 03:04 PM (#6064296)
2490 - i agree, spivey (and i love tyrese). i'd also rather have tyrese's mid-to-long term future than domantas', salary aside.
   2495. a 57i66135 with a grenade still has a grenade Posted: February 08, 2022 at 03:06 PM (#6064297)
tony bradley played well with the sixers last year, so i have no complaints.


fwiw, the sixers made a 'big' deal about bradley losing 10-20 lbs early last season, and i think that did help him play a bit faster and move a bit better on both ends.
   2496. tshipman Posted: February 08, 2022 at 03:12 PM (#6064298)
FWIW, I think Sabonis is a bit underrated and Haliburton is a bit overrated. Haliburton has a nice 3pt%, but even with it, his usage is low, his TS% is only good (doesn't get to the line or put pressure on the rim and his 3pt volume is only ok in today's game), and his +/- numbers have been meh each of the last two years.


I think the thing with Haliburton is that he's been trapped in this situation with the Kings where he's been deferring too much. His usage is 4 points higher with Fox off than with Fox on.

Per 100 possessions with Fox off the court, Haliburton averages 21/4/12.6.

Sabonis is a good player, but has a ceiling on any good team.

Edit: and just to throw this out there, how confident are people that Sabonis is actually a better basketball player than Richaun Holmes? Like, that the Kings will be better with Sabonis on the court vs. Holmes?
   2497. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: February 08, 2022 at 03:16 PM (#6064299)
ceiling is the real issue, right? haliburton seems like he'd fit in with all kinds of other lineups and fits in well with all kinds of hypothetical good teams. sabonis, as good as he's been, is weirder to build around and with. maybe not good enough to build around? if you want to get to the second round of the playoffs?
   2498. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: February 08, 2022 at 03:19 PM (#6064301)
Buddy Hield feels like his whole career has been wasted. Will he ever get to a playoff game?
   2499. jmurph Posted: February 08, 2022 at 03:33 PM (#6064302)
and just to throw this out there, how confident are people that Sabonis is actually a better basketball player than Richaun Holmes? Like, that the Kings will be better with Sabonis on the court vs. Holmes?

I think Sabonis has been better to date and is 2.5 years younger, so I feel pretty confident in the first part (Holmes is the better shot blocker, though, I'm not dismissing that at all). As to the second, I have no confidence in the Kings to maximize the talent of anyone on their team, so who knows! They'll probably play together. With Bagley.
   2500. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: February 08, 2022 at 03:40 PM (#6064303)
i still want to see holmes in charlotte someday.
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