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Friday, May 21, 2021

NBA 2021 Playoffs+ thread

I estimate there are maybe 10-12 Primates left on this site, and they all post in the NBA thread.

Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: May 21, 2021 at 01:07 PM | 4930 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: clutch, narratives, nba, off topic, redemption

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   4401. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 10, 2021 at 10:58 PM (#6039154)
All the pieces are in place!

Flip
   4402. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: September 11, 2021 at 03:41 PM (#6039230)
But this year, NBA 2K22 really stepped up its game when it comes to shoving elements of late-stage capitalism into the experience. NBA 2K22 features a digital Jake from State Farm. This “character” has appeared in numerous State Farm commercials and because most of us spend hours of our days bombarded by thousands of ads, most of you will recognize Jake from State Farm.

We really are in the darkest timeline.

   4403. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: September 12, 2021 at 12:18 AM (#6039286)
Marc J. Spears
@MarcJSpears
Chris Webber made mention of Negro Leagues Legend Turkey Stearns, who Satchel Paige once called “one of the greatest hitters we ever had” in his speech. C-Webb also thanked Bill Russell, John Carlos, Spencer Haywood and Dr. Harry Edwards in his induction speech.
   4404. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: September 12, 2021 at 04:54 PM (#6039343)
I played so much NBA2k12 to like 2k18 but so many of the modes are just awful and no fun anymore unless you're willing to spend on VC.
   4405. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: September 14, 2021 at 03:04 PM (#6039639)
rockets are going to try to move john wall, do not intend to play him, do not plan to buy him out.
   4406. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: September 14, 2021 at 03:13 PM (#6039641)
rockets are going to try to move john wall, do not intend to play him, do not plan to buy him out.
trade machine: who says no?
   4407. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: September 14, 2021 at 03:19 PM (#6039642)
I played so much NBA2k12 to like 2k18 but so many of the modes are just awful and no fun anymore unless you're willing to spend on VC.
the most powerful card in every video game is the credit card.
   4408. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: September 14, 2021 at 03:23 PM (#6039643)
Where could Wall possibly go?
   4409. JJ1986 Posted: September 14, 2021 at 03:59 PM (#6039648)
Do the Rockets have any first round picks that they can move?
   4410. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: September 14, 2021 at 04:06 PM (#6039649)
i'm not sure i know what it is exactly that houston is planning? on the one hand, i can't imagine that they'd move picks... so, what other toxic contracts might they take on?
---
aaron gordon signed a 4/92 extension with denver, yr 4 is a player option.
   4411. DCA Posted: September 14, 2021 at 04:11 PM (#6039650)
Who says no?

HOU sends 4 firsts, OKC one.
   4412. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: September 14, 2021 at 04:26 PM (#6039654)
Who says no?

HOU sends 4 firsts, OKC one.

2/10.
   4413. asinwreck Posted: September 14, 2021 at 06:33 PM (#6039689)
Simmons and Seth Curry for Wall and every pick Houston can give up under the rules would work.
   4414. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: September 14, 2021 at 07:31 PM (#6039694)
Simmons and Seth Curry for Wall and every pick Houston can give up under the rules would work.
3/10.
   4415. smileyy Posted: September 14, 2021 at 07:45 PM (#6039697)
Simmons and Seth Curry for Wall and every pick Houston can give up under the rules would work.


That would make...what...Joel Embiid their most capable 3-point shooter?
   4416. tshipman Posted: September 14, 2021 at 08:53 PM (#6039701)
Luke Kennard plus picks?

Kevin Love straight up? Just for the memes?
   4417. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: September 14, 2021 at 10:29 PM (#6039723)
Luke Kennard plus picks?
1/10.
Kevin Love straight up? Just for the memes?
0/10.
   4418. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: September 14, 2021 at 11:44 PM (#6039741)
On my 10th day in ICU, COVID-19 is officially kicking my but, I am asking ALL family, friends , prayer warriors healers for your prayers and well wish for my recovery.
If I have done and anything to you in the past , allow me to publicly apologize.
My fight is not done…..
Thx pic.twitter.com/r9QZBpfmEI

— Cedric Ceballos (@cedceballos) September 7, 2021
....a few days later...
Hello family and friends, giving a UPDATE on my health situation….. I am COVID-19 free, thank you so very much for your prayers and well wishes to help me with that. I still CAN NOT breathe, walk or function on my own yet……… pic.twitter.com/PoH9cG81Hx

— Cedric Ceballos (@cedceballos) September 13, 2021
……. so PLEASE no phone calls, it’s to much work and hard to understand me). I am out of isolation, due to not having covid, but still in ICU, I will still fight and I ask for uplifting on your end…….

— Cedric Ceballos (@cedceballos) September 13, 2021
   4419. smileyy Posted: September 14, 2021 at 11:50 PM (#6039745)
I hope his recovery isn't the dead cat bounce I've heard of Covid patients having
   4420. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: September 15, 2021 at 09:48 AM (#6039778)
same
---
looks like, in ex-prospect news, houston is signing exum and dallas ntilikina. am i alone in really liking the idea of getting frank on a minimum wage deal? i mean, he is a bad offensive player - can't go to the hole, shots haven't gone in, low usage and low efficiency. but! he's still 23, could still develop into an average or slightly better perimeter shooter, has sufficient ball skills to be the #2 bh on a second unit and that leaves defense, where he seems very good with a ceiling above that. (a 7-1 wingspan helps.) if you're into uber projection metrics like darko or raptor, they have him as a rotation level guy right now, on the back of that d.
   4421. DCA Posted: September 15, 2021 at 10:28 AM (#6039787)
Yeah I like Ntilikina as a defensive stopper off the bench who can handle the ball. That has some situational value, and as part of a regular rotation he could pair well with a microwave 0 guard that a lot of teams have on the bench. Exum is just a body that can eat replacement-level minutes for a shitty team, so Houston makes sense for him.
   4422. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: September 15, 2021 at 10:45 AM (#6039791)
yeah. two other guard/wing scrubs that i think are interesting are bonga for toronto (he's like a wing version of frank?) and unsigned garrison mathews (he's a plus defender but not special - strictly because of a super high motor versus tools - and a dead eye three point shot (but not a quick enough release to have high usage) - with no other skills).
   4423. tshipman Posted: September 15, 2021 at 12:32 PM (#6039804)
I've liked Garrison Matthews for a little bit, and I wish he could get a chance with a team that could use him correctly. He absolutely needs to be over 40% from 3 to be a useful player though.
   4424. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: September 15, 2021 at 02:31 PM (#6039827)
Tom Moore @TomMoorePhilly
#NBA source: The #Sixers 'are expecting (Ben Simmons) to play (in 2020-21). The expectation is they will. It's bumpy right now (& the team expects it) to get better.' The #76ers don't plan on making a deal that would drop them back in standings & not getting viable offers. pic.twitter.com/QUMmzkKbKF

   4425. Hombre Brotani Posted: September 15, 2021 at 03:20 PM (#6039832)
#NBA source: The #Sixers 'are expecting (Ben Simmons) to play (in 2020-21).
This feels like the NBA version of the Microsoft Explorer meme.
   4426. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 17, 2021 at 09:23 PM (#6040203)
Good luck with the whole "No worries, Ben will play and everything will be fine! It won't hurt the team in the standings at all! Clap louder!"

I mean it will be interesting if they actually mean it, and it is not just a desperate bid for leverage.

I think the reality is the market for a stopper (on defense AND offense) who is young and on the max is maybe not what they hoped. I don't blame them for wanting to play Ben to improve his stock and make people forget what happened the last time they saw him cowering in a corner desperate not to get the ball on offense, but man what an ugly situation.

I am sure it felt good to throw him under the bus after the playoff loss, but ouch. I actually like Ben as a player, so I hope he lands in a good situation for him.
   4427. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: September 18, 2021 at 09:52 AM (#6040256)
   4428. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: September 18, 2021 at 12:16 PM (#6040268)
   4429. spivey 2 Posted: September 19, 2021 at 07:44 PM (#6040444)
Thanks for linking 4427. That was a good read, and I wasn't aware of some of those all-in-one metrics.
   4430. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: September 19, 2021 at 07:51 PM (#6040446)
I was inspired by your idea
4/10.

if you're gonna troll on my troll, you need to come with more than jabari ####### parker. at least give me some tacko fall action.
   4431. tshipman Posted: September 19, 2021 at 09:21 PM (#6040462)
Thanks for linking 4427. That was a good read, and I wasn't aware of some of those all-in-one metrics.


Seconded. Hadn't even heard of the top 3.

Unsurprisingly, they're all versions of +/- with box score priors applied.
   4432. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: September 19, 2021 at 10:30 PM (#6040472)
I have darko and LeBron bookmarked and like EPM but had forgotten about it until recently. Have thought about making my own weighed average of these metrics with some tweaks for usage and position but that sounds like work.

Bball index has good data but they’re pricey.
   4433. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: September 20, 2021 at 08:09 AM (#6040479)
I think the idea of an "all in one" metric is basically pointless scienceology; good for fantasy players, largely useless as a predictive tool.
   4434. DCA Posted: September 20, 2021 at 10:30 AM (#6040493)
I think the idea of an "all in one" metric is basically pointless scienceology; good for fantasy players, largely useless as a predictive tool.

I disagree. Obviously, you lose something by collapsing multiple dimensions of performance/ability into a single number, but I think it's useful shorthand.

Because really what matters is talent. And all-in-one metrics measure talent. Better players score higher, and play better, and win more.

Fit matters, synergies exist, and coaching/strategy/tactics too. And the metrics are not perfect measures of talent. So the whole will be more or less than the sum of the parts, to some degree. But mostly, it's the sum of the parts.
   4435. tshipman Posted: September 20, 2021 at 11:15 AM (#6040498)
Because really what matters is talent. And all-in-one metrics measure talent. Better players score higher, and play better, and win more.


Not sure I agree with any of that. At the star level, maybe we could say that. At the role player level, I think it's certainly not true. I don't even know what "talent" means when you're comparing Jarrett Allen and Lonzo Ball.
   4436. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: September 20, 2021 at 11:37 AM (#6040502)
i think i'm somewhere between tftio and dca here. they're helpful as a shorthand - particularly when you work with the component parts and figure out why they are as high or low as they are. (if you want to say that at that point you're no longer dealing with a single metric, sure). but there are classes of players we "know" these metrics over or underrate - we "know" ways that these metrics struggle wrt the importance of fit, and so on.

darko
epm
lebron
   4437. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: September 20, 2021 at 12:05 PM (#6040506)
Talent is not a single measure, so single measures are definitionally going to be a lossy reflection of the real world. As important as “intrinsic” talent is context or fit.
   4438. Mike A Posted: September 20, 2021 at 12:18 PM (#6040509)
I was mostly using Lebron and Raptor, I bookmarked epm and darko. Thanks for the article.

One thing I've noticed is many of these advanced stats love defensive centers. Gobert grades out a top 5 player, Capela top 20, and even Brook Lopez sneaks into some top 30s. That seems a bit strong to me, especially when you consider what seems to be a more limited impact of these centers in the playoffs.
   4439. tshipman Posted: September 20, 2021 at 12:58 PM (#6040517)
Clint Capela had superstar level impact last year--including in the playoffs. He does kind of have Gobert syndrome, but the East doesn't have teams that are built to destroy fake contenders like the West does. (Edit: except Brooklyn, natch)

What to do with Capela/Gobert type players is a fascinating quandary, IMO.
   4440. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: September 20, 2021 at 01:11 PM (#6040521)
4438/mike a: yeah they do. in general, i think they overrate players who can't shoot threes (which is separate from "how do they evaluate defense" concerns) ... which speaks to how these metrics evaluate players in the context of how they've being used recently, versus how they'd perform in other situations. i think this is slightly separate from "context neutral" evaluations, which can suffer in instances where players are being used sub-optimally because that's how their game naturally works. like, you can say "melo would be amazing if he was on a team that gave him a better shot mix" but maybe that's just how he operates.
   4441. DCA Posted: September 20, 2021 at 04:15 PM (#6040565)
Not sure I agree with any of that. At the star level, maybe we could say that. At the role player level, I think it's certainly not true. I don't even know what "talent" means when you're comparing Jarrett Allen and Lonzo Ball.

It doesn't really matter, because you aren't ever going to be choosing between Jarrett Allen and Lonzo Ball for the same on-court role. If you were, and you were using LEBRON or WS/48 to inform the choice, well the problem here isn't the all-in-one metric. I suppose other 4 guys on the court could be such that either Allen or Ball would be an equivalent fit. That's unlikely, but I guess in that case, all-in-one metric of choice would be a reasonable approximation of value added.

Basically, to use an all-in-one metric, there's an implicit assumption that the coaches are going to avoid putting players together on the court in really bad-fitting ways. Yeah, three centers and two ballstopper wings are not going to perform to their full RAPM, but in the range of most actual 5-man lineups, that doesn't happen. There are a few exceptions of course, injuries or other shorthanded situations, young guys with learning curves or garbage time, and superstars.

I actually think that the all-in-one metrics are better for role players than superstars. Because role players are played in roles that fit their skills. While superstars get thrown together, without regard to fit or synergy, because they are so good that it's worth doing so no matter the losses.
   4442. spivey 2 Posted: September 20, 2021 at 05:06 PM (#6040575)
Elite defensive centers are extremely valuable. I don't think it's absurd to say Gobert is a top 5-10 regular season player. There's an entirely separate question of regular season vs. postseason value, but I think that's a separate question of if the catch-all stats are accurate.

FWIW, I think Gobert's gotten too much blame for their playoff underperformance, in particular last year, though he's not a top 10 playoff player I think we can all agree. That said, Lowe and McMahon were talking about his iso-defense being elite. I think Utah does need to try to mix up their defensive coverages a bit more. Of course, they also need Mitchell, Conley, and Ingles to play good defense in the playoffs.

One interesting thing (among many) - I didn't realize that RPM had completely changed formulas.

I actually think that the all-in-one metrics are better for role players than superstars. Because role players are played in roles that fit their skills. While superstars get thrown together, without regard to fit or synergy, because they are so good that it's worth doing so no matter the losses.


I'd argue the opposite. The stars are going to be more involved with the individual plays that both impact the box score and +/- in a more tangible way. They're also playing more minutes, less likely to be affected by weird lineups around them. The stats that use priors are also going to be using priors of stars, not role players.

A front office person in the article mentioned, and I agree, I think we are more likely to with player tracking data, shot quality data, etc. to get to a place where we can more comfortably parse out groups of players like 3&D, and then try to quantify them. I suppose another challenge there will be - at least in the playoffs - I think the last several years (or longer?) have shown that having multiple guys who can do multiple things is important. Unless you have someone like LeBron who can initiate the offense always, your role players being able to pass, dribble, score at multiple levels is important. I suppose you can still bucket players, but I think in the playoffs, giving up a bit of quality to get a bit more versatility is important as you look at facing the same, good defense several games in a row.
   4443. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: September 20, 2021 at 05:29 PM (#6040579)
RPM formula change: yeah, count me in with those who think they broke it.

Basically, to use an all-in-one metric, there's an implicit assumption that the coaches are going to avoid putting players together on the court in really bad-fitting ways. Yeah, three centers and two ballstopper wings are not going to perform to their full RAPM, but in the range of most actual 5-man lineups, that doesn't happen.

This is what I was very awkwardly trying to get at - I think even slightly bad fitting ways matter. So, there's a handful of centers out there who will make minimum wage next year despite rating as average or slightly better than that. (Note: by "average", I mean a +/- type rating of 0 player... these are well above median value, as NBA talent is at the far end of a distribution + minutes are not distributed equally). Think Cody Zeller, Andre Drummond, Tony Bradley. When I think about "what can Tony Bradley give a team?" (which is a question I should spend less time on) - that answer is very different if he lines up next to a high scoring four who does most of his damage around the hoop (Bradley would get in his way on offense) or a perimeter four and where the team is low on drivers ... and that's just offense. (I think Pelton tries to account explicitly for this with his version of WARP.)

Role player v Superstars: I'm spivey here (better for superstars) but honestly, I'm not sure how much better. If everything is optimized around what's best for, say, Russell Westbrook - and that hurts other player's ratings - what does that mean about anyone's ratings in that situation? (Most stars are more "very good" than "on-court weirdos", tho. Also, I don't mean "on-court weirdo" as a dig - Harden is an on-court weirdo and I'd take him all day.)

To be clear, I like uber-ratings! But as a start to a convo, not as an end.
   4444. tshipman Posted: September 20, 2021 at 06:12 PM (#6040589)
I think even slightly bad fitting ways matter.


We have evidence that this is true for even super-duperstars, right?

Dwyane Wade/LeBron James 2009 vs. Dwyane Wade/LeBron James 2010.
Curry and Durant pre vs post.
   4445. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: September 21, 2021 at 09:09 AM (#6040657)
agreed.
----
jj redick just retired.
   4446. jmurph Posted: September 21, 2021 at 09:32 AM (#6040664)
I have no actual proposal to fix this, but I've heard/read multiple reports suggesting John Wall isn't going to play all year because the Rockets are going to try to trade him in a year when his contract might be more moveable, and that seems obviously bad to me. I think the league needs to figure this out.
   4447. Willard Baseball Posted: September 21, 2021 at 09:57 AM (#6040670)
We need a team where we can just send these guys that young teams don't want to play because they are trying to lose or the player is way too expensive. Wall/KLove/DAJ/Horford, etc.

We could have Mike Brown coach.

And then if you felt really bad about where your team was at in the success cycle, you could flip over and watch that team play for a few days and you would love your squad again.
   4448. asinwreck Posted: September 21, 2021 at 11:24 AM (#6040685)
However Wall moves, I bet the Thunder will be involved.

Hey, this works.
   4449. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: September 21, 2021 at 11:43 AM (#6040688)
RE Wall, I'm sure there is a rationale, but I'm not exactly sure what it is when it comes to the "need to trade for ~matching salary" rule. Part of me thinks "well if you can trade for him and still fit him under your cap or luxury tax and have a roster spot, what's the problem?" but I know I must be missing something.
   4450. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: September 21, 2021 at 11:54 AM (#6040690)
i'm not sure i understand your question, c&p - would you mind restating?

i think the issue is:
* he makes a LOT of money for two years, enough that he's difficult to trade for without losing a lot more on court value than you'd get back. so trading for him really means trading for the picks you'd get along with him.
* houston doesn't want to give up the kind of draft capital they'd have to in order to move this contract, nor do they want to block porter from getting minutes at the one / they don't mind losing this year as it's a rare case when they own their own pick for awhile.
* a team like the thunder could fit him under the cap without too much difficulty, but wouldn't want to block or stunt the development of people who could be a part of their future - wall wouldn't be that. honestly, the thunder might be the only team that fits that criteria of being able to easily figure out ways to afford him, particularly this late in the offseason.
* wall has had significant health issues but is considered a good locker room guy and could still be an mle type player going forward. he can use this time to heal, work on his j, prepare to build back his value next year.
i think the mostly likely outcome is that he sits out this year. next year, he can either be traded for other bad (longer?) deals or bought out (buying him out now wouldn't make sense for either party, imo).

i don't like that this makes sense either. not sure what the league should do about it.

   4451. PJ Martinez Posted: September 21, 2021 at 12:00 PM (#6040691)
ESPN Sources: Philadelphia 76ers All-Star Ben Simmons will not report for opening of training camp next week and intends to never play another game for the franchise. Simmons hasn’t spoken to team since a late August meeting when he communicated this message to Sixers officials.
   4452. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: September 21, 2021 at 12:01 PM (#6040692)
I guess I think about it with respect to Wall, in that he'd probably be a good 3rd guard for a good team. He makes WAY more than he should for that role, and that's a problem. It also seems a problem that you need to send out ~$35M in salary to bring him back to your team. You usually can't do that without sending out other players that you don't want to get rid of.

So you don't want him because you have to pay him that much, but you also don't want him because you'd have to send out other plausibly valuable players in order to acquire him and make it match. I'd think he'd be more tradeable if you only needed to send out a $10M player to bring him back.

It probably doesn't matter in Wall's case, because he makes SO MUCH and a team isn't going to want to take that on and go into the luxury tax. Maybe it would help someone making less than that, though?
   4453. JJ1986 Posted: September 21, 2021 at 12:05 PM (#6040694)
I'm usually all for player empowerment, but for some reason this Simmons stuff rubs me the wrong way. For one thing, he has a really long time left on his contract.
   4454. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: September 21, 2021 at 12:06 PM (#6040695)
you know what would help here? if players could be sent out on loan. granted, that's a whole other can of worms...
   4455. JJ1986 Posted: September 21, 2021 at 12:07 PM (#6040696)
I'm just spitballing, but could the rules change to allow teams to retain some of a player's salary when they traded him? So the Rockets would hypothetically pay Wall $30 million to not play on their team (and he would count that much against the cap for them) and then they could trade him to a team where he'd only count the remaining ~$15 million for the new team.
   4456. spivey 2 Posted: September 21, 2021 at 12:36 PM (#6040699)
Wall: I guess it's to keep him healthy for a future buyout/trade. Given he's supposed to be a good locker room guy, I would like to imagine there's a place where playing him 25 min/game doesn't get in the way of Porter Jr or Jaylen Green's development. It seems like in a lot of these scenarios the player is on board with sitting out and they're still getting paid, so I don't see too big of a problem with it. Not sure he's really helping them win *that* much, anyways. They're gonna suck with our without Wall. (Edit: it seems like it sucks more for Wall than it does for the league.)

Simmons: I think you call his bluff. Make him start missing out on large paychecks, and I think he'll report. Even if he doesn't, I think there's a chance a team or two that's expressed interest gets off to a poor start and maybe sweetens the pot at the beginning of the season. As long as you don't end up in a situation where he's sitting out the entire year - and I don't think it'll come to that - I don't think him not reporting and missing the first couple of weeks impacts his trade value in a meaningful way.
   4457. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: September 21, 2021 at 12:36 PM (#6040700)
retain the salary and cap hit?
   4458. tshipman Posted: September 21, 2021 at 01:04 PM (#6040706)
you know what would help here? if players could be sent out on loan. granted, that's a whole other can of worms...


I think this would really help with some of this. You could have loans for the period before the trade deadline, and you could send assets for the loan. The player salary would count to the loaning team for the salary cap, but you couldn't have a loan player in the playoffs.
   4459. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: September 21, 2021 at 01:10 PM (#6040708)
Derek Bodner @DerekBodnerNBA
Simmons news is mostly maintaining status quo. Still, it just reinforces how the only real reason the franchise is relevant is because of Joel Embiid. All the decisions, from ownership to management, to players not developing, threaten to waste Embiid's prime, an unforgivable sin
Ky Carlin @Ky_Carlin
It’s disappointing to see the Ben Simmons era end this way. So much talent, really an elite defender and playmaker, but it’s also on him to add to his game and the refusal to take any jumpers is something that will hold him back.
John Gonzalez @JohnGonzalez
It would be cool if one time the Sixers had a year where no one got big mad, no one’s shot broke beyond repair and no one nearly died of a peanut overdose
Ky Carlin @Ky_Carlin
The fact that JJ Redick is 6th all time in Sixers history in 3-pointers made despite playing only 2 seasons is crazy to me

   4460. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: September 21, 2021 at 01:25 PM (#6040712)
retain the salary and cap hit?

That's how I'm reading it. It's what the NHL does (I honestly can't remember how MLB treats retained salary - or more accurately "cash considerations" in the luxury tax calcs).

It's how you get a bunch of weird deals where a retired guy is traded to a new team and never plays for them - just this year, that's what happened with Brent Seabrook going from CHI to TB; but the funniest example was Chris Pronger getting traded even though he was working for the NHL office. The players just don't retire so they still get paid; team have a long term IR they can use but it's steal easier some times to trade that cap hit away to a team that isn't going to touch the salary cap anyway.

EDIT: This would be another way for the rich teams to work around the luxury tax though so I doubt the Gilbers et al of the world would like it.
   4461. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: September 21, 2021 at 01:27 PM (#6040713)
The fact that JJ Redick is 6th all time in Sixers history in 3-pointers made despite playing only 2 seasons is crazy to me

He's probably top 10 or nearly top 10 for every team he's played for. Korver too.
   4462. tshipman Posted: September 21, 2021 at 01:29 PM (#6040714)
EDIT: This would be another way for the rich teams to work around the luxury tax though so I doubt the Gilbers et al of the world would like it.


This is largely already happening with buyouts, though. The point would be that with loans, if you limited them to the period before the trade deadline, you could use them to feature players that you don't want to play while allowing them to fill roles on a contender.

Buyouts benefit the rich teams way more than loans would.
   4463. asinwreck Posted: September 21, 2021 at 01:30 PM (#6040715)
Simmons sitting out the entire season before he departs would produce symmetry with the start of his time with the Sixers.
   4464. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: September 21, 2021 at 01:34 PM (#6040718)
It's how you get a bunch of weird deals where a retired guy is traded to a new team and never plays for them - just this year, that's what happened with Brent Seabrook going from CHI to TB; but the funniest example was Chris Pronger getting traded even though he was working for the NHL office. The players just don't retire so they still get paid; team have a long term IR they can use but it's steal easier some times to trade that cap hit away to a team that isn't going to touch the salary cap anyway.

the pronger thing was even weirder than that because of the way the NHL structures its cap. when the flyers traded him to arizona, pronger's contract was a 10MM bearer bond for any team that was only spending to the cap floor.
   4465. jmurph Posted: September 21, 2021 at 01:36 PM (#6040719)
I'm, uhh, (understatement time) not a Simmons fan or believer, but I'll mostly defend his actions here. It's not like this demand and refusal to report is out of nowhere, it was very clearly leaked immediately after the season that his time in Philadelphia was up and they were planning to trade him.

Am I remembering the timeline wrong?
   4466. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: September 21, 2021 at 01:43 PM (#6040721)
Yeah, I don't particularly think that Simmons is the villain here.
   4467. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: September 21, 2021 at 01:46 PM (#6040722)
I'm, uhh, (understatement time) not a Simmons fan or believer, but I'll mostly defend his actions here. It's not like this demand and refusal to report is out of nowhere, it was very clearly leaked immediately after the season that his time in Philadelphia was up and they were planning to trade him.

Am I remembering the timeline wrong?
i would say that's mostly right, but i will continue to remind people that, from the start of this, the sixers had/have more motivation to move simmons than simmons has to want out of philly.
   4468. tshipman Posted: September 21, 2021 at 01:48 PM (#6040723)
i would say that's mostly right, but i'll add a reminder that alot of people either missed from the start, or forgot along the way, that the sixers have more motivation to move simmons than simmons has to want out of philly.


Are you including Daryl Morey in the list of people who forgot that?
   4469. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: September 21, 2021 at 01:49 PM (#6040725)
This is largely already happening with buyouts, though. The point would be that with loans, if you limited them to the period before the trade deadline, you could use them to feature players that you don't want to play while allowing them to fill roles on a contender.

Buyouts benefit the rich teams way more than loans would.


I was talking about retained salary in trades, not loans. But loans are another interesting idea. I agree with you on buyouts, but also am in the camp that most of the guys bought out haven't been enough of a difference maker to both adjusting the rules quite yet.
   4470. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: September 21, 2021 at 01:51 PM (#6040726)
Are you including Daryl Morey in the list of people who forgot that?
sure. he has very clearly not handled this well.
   4471. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 21, 2021 at 02:24 PM (#6040733)
The lesson here is don't publically trash a guy until he is traded out of town.

Trashing Simmons and making it obvious they were going to trade him sabotaged team leverage and pissed off Simmons enough that he is not willing to play ball with them.

Then they started off with a ridiculously high price for the guy they trashed and had to trade.

This is a bed they (76er management) made.
   4472. DCA Posted: September 21, 2021 at 02:33 PM (#6040737)
Just read an article that Simmons would prefer to move to one of LAC/LAL/GSW. This is the most realistic that I could get (GSW probably needs to send picks to both teams). Trade machine hates it for every party.
   4473. DCA Posted: September 21, 2021 at 02:37 PM (#6040738)
And this lands Simmons on the Clippers. There may not exist enough draft capital to make it work, though.
   4474. PJ Martinez Posted: September 21, 2021 at 02:54 PM (#6040740)
Simmons doesn't have any veto power, does he? I don't see why Morey et al would make any special effort to send him somewhere he wants to go. It's only a question of what teams will offer (obviously).
   4475. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: September 21, 2021 at 03:07 PM (#6040744)
If I were Minnesota, say, that knowing that Simmons is a) willing to use all his leverage to go where he wants and b) he wants to go to California means that the offers would go from "Beasley, McDaniel, salary filler + 3 1sts" to "here's a pick, and you can have a pu-pu platter of Prince, Vanderbilt, Beverly".
   4476. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: September 21, 2021 at 03:12 PM (#6040745)
It's all so weird. Philadelphia seems like they are holding onto Ben Simmons to get a whole lot (I know, define a "whole lot") back for him, when that's probably not happening. Simmons is acting like he wants to go to a contender, which also is a thing that isn't happening.

I guess it's all just posturing by all involved with both Simmons and the Sixers' side of things, and that all the involved parties privately hold more realistic views of the situation. Right?

EDIT - I've sort of thought/suspected that the Sixers have a solid idea of a trade offer from someone (Minnesota, Sacramento, whoever), but they'd like a little bit more and figured there's no actual harm in waiting a bit. Maybe that's still the case. Maybe that was never the case.
   4477. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: September 21, 2021 at 03:13 PM (#6040746)
Trashing Simmons and making it obvious they were going to trade him sabotaged team leverage and pissed off Simmons enough that he is not willing to play ball with them.
Yup.
Then they started off with a ridiculously high price for the guy they trashed and had to trade.
I get that this is Morey's MO and it has worked for him - he had to know that this situation is a little different given that first bit.
Just read an article that Simmons would prefer to move to one of LAC/LAL/GSW.
F his preferences. He doesn't have that kind of leverage either, imo.
I guess it's all just posturing by all involved with both Simmons and the Sixers' side of things, and that all the involved parties privately hold more realistic views of the situation. Right?
Likely. Not sure what Ben actually thinks here, this isn't a type of self awareness that players are always awash in.

You know, I was thinking about Simmons and Vanderbilt yesterday - as in, Vanderbilt is like what Simmons would be with a little less athleticism and size and way, way, way less floor game. (Vanderbilt, to be clear, is a pretty decent player, imo. To go back to uber-metrics, most like him, some a great deal.)

   4478. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: September 21, 2021 at 03:16 PM (#6040747)
Saw the Woj Bomb and knew the thread would be on the job.

Will be interested to see if STIGGLES reports to the thread for camp or if he holds out to be traded to a website that fits his skillset better.
   4479. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: September 21, 2021 at 03:20 PM (#6040748)
The lesson here is don't publically trash a guy until he is traded out of town.

Trashing Simmons and making it obvious they were going to trade him sabotaged team leverage and pissed off Simmons enough that he is not willing to play ball with them.

Then they started off with a ridiculously high price for the guy they trashed and had to trade.

This is a bed they (76er management) made.

i'll take issue with this, too. what rivers and embiid said about simmons after the ATL series wasn't "trashing" him. that's just some world star housewives drama bullshit.


after the season ended, simmons and sixers' management came together and agreed that it would be mutually beneficial for simmons to be traded. the sixers ###### that up by holding out for a godfather package and/or a damian lillard trade that never materialized.
EDIT - I've sort of thought/suspected that the Sixers have a solid idea of a trade offer from someone (Minnesota, Sacramento, whoever), but they'd like a little bit more and figured there's no actual harm in waiting a bit. Maybe that's still the case. Maybe that was never the case.
that was my take leading into the draft, but if that was the case, it's weird that they let this situation play out this far.
   4480. PJ Martinez Posted: September 21, 2021 at 04:05 PM (#6040756)
FWIW, Marc Stein, who reported yesterday that Simmons was not expected to show up to camp, says the Sixers "do not appear close to a trade they are willing to go through with."
   4481. asinwreck Posted: September 21, 2021 at 05:20 PM (#6040767)
"We keep hoping Lillard will ask out of Portland" is how I read that.
   4482. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 21, 2021 at 06:06 PM (#6040778)
i'll take issue with this, too. what rivers and embiid said about simmons after the ATL series wasn't "trashing" him. that's just some world star housewives drama bullshit.


Define things as you want. Still what Rivers and Embiid said about Simmons in the aftermath of a terrible playoff performance is not in the slightest what Morey is trying to sell Simmons for.

Rivers was then asked if he still believes Simmons can be a championship point guard.

"I don't know the answer to that," Rivers said.


And a Championship player is exactly what Morey is trying to peddle. And that is why Simmons is still a 76er, while the trashing (which is how Simmons saw it, and whine all you want, his opinion matters in this situation) is why Simmons is throwing a fit and basically has to be traded for pennies on the dollar.

The point remains all of this mess is the fault of the 76ers not handling the situation correctly. If Morey manages to escape with anything like fair value for Simmons he is a freaking genius. And yes, Simmons has not handled it well either, which doesn't help the 76ers any.
   4483. nick swisher hygiene Posted: September 21, 2021 at 06:18 PM (#6040779)
So I just looked up “reverse protection” and it wasn’t a thing until 2012.

Anyway, what about Lillard for Simmons + a lottery pick?

Both teams say no, right?
   4484. tshipman Posted: September 21, 2021 at 07:50 PM (#6040795)
I wonder why San Antonio, Denver or Utah aren't interested in Simmons. It feels like all of those teams could put together a 3 quarter for a dollar trade that would improve their team's chances going forward. In particular, Denver seems like it could work.
   4485. spivey 2 Posted: September 21, 2021 at 08:13 PM (#6040800)
San Antonio apparently inquired and was quoted something ridiculous. The rumor mill was it was like a young player, 4 FRPs, and 3 pick swaps.

I think 2 young players (Spurs need to consolidate, though which 2 matters a lot), 1 FRP, and 1 swap is reasonable for both sides. Simmons is on a max deal, it should be noted, and I'm not sure even as a Simmons fan I'd consider him surplus on such a deal.
   4486. . . . . . . Posted: September 21, 2021 at 09:25 PM (#6040810)
I don't understand Simmons' strategy here. His value doesn't go down if he doesn't play. In fact, from the perspective of the Sixers, I think it's a great outcome if he refuses to play and they don't have to pay him. I guess there is a point of leverage at the trading deadline, where the Sixers would like to do a deal in time to give Embiid help for the playoffs, but otherwise if Simmons doesn't play, they get the option value of seeing if Embiid is healthy, if any other team gets desperate and makes a Herschel Walker offer, all for free.
   4487. DCA Posted: September 21, 2021 at 09:28 PM (#6040811)
Anyway, what about Lillard for Simmons + a lottery pick?

I think it would have to be several lottery picks, plus Maxey. And unless Lillard demands a trade (publicly or privately), the Blazers are going to hold him even if the trade would make sense for basketball reasons. Sixers are going to have to settle for McCollum if they want to send Simmons to Oregon.

   4488. DCA Posted: September 21, 2021 at 09:41 PM (#6040814)
In fact, from the perspective of the Sixers, I think it's a great outcome if he refuses to play and they don't have to pay him.

Except that Simmons for all his flaws is good, and the Sixers are better with Simmons, or somebody/bodies that Simmons is traded for, than they are with nobody.

One complication in any potential Simmons deal is the 76ers need to get a PG back; only Maxey is really even sort of a PG on the roster with Simmons sitting out. So they will need to do something.
   4489. 57i66135 is available to babysit, for a price Posted: September 21, 2021 at 10:25 PM (#6040823)
Kyle Neubeck @KyleNeubeck
Thinking about one of the many forgotten subplots of the burner account saga: Embiid getting repeatedly disparaged to prop up Simmons (who was drafted by Colangelo)
https://twitter.com/KyleNeubeck/status/1440489004692951051
Kurt Helin @basketballtalk
Report: Jaylen Brown told Celtics it was important to hire Black head coach nba.nbcsports.com/2021/09/21/rep…
Micah Adams @MicahAdams13
Ben Simmons is unquestionably in the wrong. Ben Simmons is unquestionably in need of a serious come to Jesus moment. Ben Simmons is unquestionably an all-time buy-low guy. Every GM should be licking their chops over the possibility of landing him for 20 cents on the dollar.

   4490. . . . . . . Posted: September 21, 2021 at 10:53 PM (#6040827)
Except that Simmons for all his flaws is good, and the Sixers are better with Simmons, or somebody/bodies that Simmons is traded for, than they are with nobody.


That doesn't matter. The Sixers with Embiid alone are good enough to make the playoffs. If Simmons doesn't play, they get a free option until the trade deadline, and even if they end up having to trade him for the same value they'd get now, they get that caliber player for the playoffs without having to pay most of the regular seasons salary. Huge win for the Sixers. I think Simmons' strategy sucks.
   4491. Hombre Brotani Posted: September 21, 2021 at 11:31 PM (#6040850)
The Sixers with Embiid alone are good enough to make the playoffs. If Simmons doesn't play, they get a free option until the trade deadline,
Assuming Simmons is serious about sitting out the season, that sounds kind of terrible for the Sixers. They'll get, at best, a mid-tier playoff seed, not have home court, and -- best case scenario -- have a couple of weeks to work in the new guys into the system before the playoffs. Or worse case scenario, they can't move Simmons, and they're one-and-done in May, and they're doing all of this again.
   4492. jmurph Posted: September 22, 2021 at 08:05 AM (#6040861)
I wonder why San Antonio, Denver or Utah aren't interested in Simmons.

I've long thought San Antonio made a lot of sense, but I don't see Denver or Utah. What's Simmons doing when Jokic is on the court?
   4493. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: September 22, 2021 at 08:23 AM (#6040868)
they get that caliber player for the playoffs without having to pay most of the regular seasons salary

I mean, Simmons still counts against their cap. Not paying him might be important to ownership, but it's immaterial to the team on the court.
   4494. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 22, 2021 at 10:50 AM (#6040915)
The best way to show how valuable a trade commodity Simmons is would be to play and somewhat succeed without him on the court.
   4495. spivey 2 Posted: September 22, 2021 at 10:58 AM (#6040919)
Assuming Simmons is serious about sitting out the season, that sounds kind of terrible for the Sixers. They'll get, at best, a mid-tier playoff seed, not have home court, and -- best case scenario -- have a couple of weeks to work in the new guys into the system before the playoffs. Or worse case scenario, they can't move Simmons, and they're one-and-done in May, and they're doing all of this again.


I think someone - Lowe, I believe - mentioned that the real deadline for this is the trade deadline. I don't think Philly can let it play out unresolved longer than that, assuming health for Embiid. If Simmons is not playing, not playing hard/well, I think they'll just need to take what they can get at that point. I don't think you can just punt a year of Embiid's playoff prime.
   4496. KronicFatigue Posted: September 22, 2021 at 11:04 AM (#6040924)
If you wait until the trading deadline, both Sixers and potential buyers will know more about their teams' needs. The sixers will learn who they are without Simmons, and figure out how best to maximize that 20 cents on the dollar. And while there will be less teams still in the market for Simmons, those teams might be willing to increase their offer to 25 cents as they see exactly what they need, and/or how valuable that last piece is to their playoff hopes.

When Clemens waited half a season to sign, I thought that was going to be the new norm for aging pitchers. Less wear and tear, more demand from teams.
   4497. jmurph Posted: September 22, 2021 at 11:07 AM (#6040926)
I think they'll end up getting a solid return, for the record. Dramatically less than the rumored demands, but some good players/pieces nonetheless. It just takes a couple teams being interested, and ideally one of them being the Kings.

   4498. KronicFatigue Posted: September 22, 2021 at 11:22 AM (#6040932)
Why are away-players who are un-vaccinated allowed to play in NY and San Fran, but not home players? How are away players exempt from city-wide rules?
   4499. . . . . . . Posted: September 22, 2021 at 12:06 PM (#6040948)

I mean, Simmons still counts against their cap. Not paying him might be important to ownership, but it's immaterial to the team on the court.


But what is his leverage, if not a threat to ownership. Simmons's proposition is "you can wait to trade me until the deadline, you'll probably go from like a 2 seed to a 5 seed, but you'll save $20M doing so with an immaterial revenue hit.

Oh noes. $20 million in free profit. Whatever will I do, Benjamin. I must trade yous immediate.

If owners could get away with benching one of their stars without pay for half a season, they'd do it in a second. The playoff games are where the value comes from. They're like the holiday season for retailers.
   4500. KronicFatigue Posted: September 22, 2021 at 12:22 PM (#6040958)
If owners could get away with benching one of their stars without pay for half a season, they'd do it in a second. The playoff games are where the value comes from. They're like the holiday season for retailers.


Not just owners, but coaches too, as evidenced by the load-management issues that have come up. Though in this case, that wouldn't apply b/c the traded players would be getting wear and tear on their other teams. But yes, generally, several teams would punt many regular season games to either save money and/or have healthier guys for the playoffs.
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