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Friday, May 21, 2021

NBA 2021 Playoffs+ thread

I estimate there are maybe 10-12 Primates left on this site, and they all post in the NBA thread.

Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: May 21, 2021 at 01:07 PM | 4930 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: clutch, narratives, nba, off topic, redemption

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   4801. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 07, 2021 at 03:52 PM (#6044539)
Flip? Flop.
   4802. asinwreck Posted: October 07, 2021 at 03:53 PM (#6044542)
Yeah, as I was quoting those tweets, I wondered if he was leaving the 18th name for suspense.
   4803. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 07, 2021 at 06:21 PM (#6044588)
Yeah, as I was quoting those tweets, I wondered if he was leaving the 18th name for suspense.

could be an informant who's already cut a deal.
   4804. SteveF Posted: October 07, 2021 at 06:57 PM (#6044601)
The missing name is CJ Watson.

Career earnings of $23+ mil.
   4805. tshipman Posted: October 08, 2021 at 11:54 AM (#6044759)
Latest from Shams:

Sources tell me that Bеn Simmons has emptied his home in Philadelphia and has had his belongings all packed and moved out, and the place will soon go up for sale. The Trail Blazers and Pacers have lead dоgs in CJ McCollum and Malcolm Brogdоn who could entice the 76ers in a pоtential package. But neither has gained traction for Philadelphia. The 76ers, I’m told, asked the Trail Blazers for three first-round picks and three Draft swaps as part of a potential package. But Portland rejected that propоsal.


I think Simmons is justified in escalating this.
   4806. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 08, 2021 at 11:58 AM (#6044763)
I'm not picking sides in Philadelphia; but I do think that this is not going to end particularly well for either Simmons or the 76ers.
   4807. JJ1986 Posted: October 08, 2021 at 12:02 PM (#6044766)
The 76ers, I’m told, asked the Trail Blazers for three first-round picks and three Draft swaps as part of a potential package.
Plus Dame Lillard.
   4808. . . . . . . Posted: October 08, 2021 at 12:24 PM (#6044777)
I still don't get what Simmons' plan is. To not play basketball and not make money? OK bro.

The smart way to play this was the James Harden, which is to show up and play, just well enough that they have to pay you, just badly enough that they have to trade you. Simmons' approach is childish and ineffective.
   4809. spivey 2 Posted: October 08, 2021 at 12:33 PM (#6044782)
I don't know that Simmons has really escalated anything. His main leverage is his willingness to sit out a significant portion of the year and forfeit all of that money, which is still tbd. Which he may be willing to do, but it's pretty rare. I guess he could come back so he gets money but just down tools, but he's almost setting himself up so that he'll look very weak if he does that.

My guess is Philadelphia is willing to take this into regular season. There are teams that I think could up their offer if they get off to a bad start. Of course, if Philly gets off to a poor start, that certainly hurts their leverage.
   4810. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 08, 2021 at 12:39 PM (#6044783)
Simmons' approach is childish and ineffective.

Technically, so was Harden's. But there really aren't any really *good* ways for Simmons to force his way out.

My guess is Philadelphia is willing to take this into regular season. There are teams that I think could up their offer if they get off to a bad start. Of course, if Philly gets off to a poor start, that certainly hurts their leverage.

Absolutely. I don't know if it's worse for Philly if they just start bad/slow or if Embiid gets hurt/misses time and they really suck.
   4811. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 08, 2021 at 12:39 PM (#6044784)
My guess is Philadelphia is willing to take this into regular season. There are teams that I think could up their offer if they get off to a bad start. Of course, if Philly gets off to a poor start, that certainly hurts their leverage.

if philly gets off to a poor start: wow, look at how important and good ben simmons is. we can't trade him for pennies when his high value is so clearly obvious.
if philly gets off to a strong start: wow, look at how well we're adapting to playing without ben simmons. we can afford to hold out until we get the exact deal we're looking for.

   4812. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 08, 2021 at 12:40 PM (#6044785)
Technically, so was Harden's. But there really aren't any really *good* ways for Simmons to force his way out.

how about he comes back, rips the ball out of embiid's hands, and shoots it 25 times per game and act like the star he thinks he wants to be. then we'll see what ####### happens, because i'm not convinced that would be a terrible thing.
   4813. DCA Posted: October 08, 2021 at 12:48 PM (#6044788)
Technically, so was Harden's. But there really aren't any really *good* ways for Simmons to force his way out.

Which is why it was such a major fail that Philly didn't send Simmons out for Harden. I mean, it might not have been possible since Fertitta may have wanted to screw Morey more than he wanted to get value back, but that was otherwise the perfect deal.
   4814. spivey 2 Posted: October 08, 2021 at 02:42 PM (#6044829)
The deal Houston got is way better than Simmons alone imo.

Those Brooklyn picks could be insanely good, and it led to the deep tank that led to them getting a top 4 pick in a loaded draft, and they'll probably get another top 5 pick this year.
   4815. DCA Posted: October 08, 2021 at 02:45 PM (#6044833)
I think the framework was always Simmons + picks
   4816. asinwreck Posted: October 08, 2021 at 08:10 PM (#6044914)
Early glimpse of the Nets has Patty Mills looking like he's been on that team for years. Smooth defensive rotations and passes, already hit a 3 in the first quarter. He may play a lot more than Sean Marks intended if Kyrie is a health & safety protocol for half the season, so we'll see if he gets overexposed.
   4817. nick swisher hygiene Posted: October 08, 2021 at 08:50 PM (#6044916)
Philly without Simmons, plus nothing else, is not a contender, right? Their absolute ceiling is 3rd in the East.

But I guess you could make a case that that’s also their ceiling WITH Simmons.

And if Philly believes that case, then they’re likely to take their time here. No?
   4818. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: October 08, 2021 at 09:09 PM (#6044922)
how about he comes back, rips the ball out of embiid's hands, and shoots it 25 times per game and act like the star he thinks he wants to be. then we'll see what ####### happens, because i'm not convinced that would be a terrible thing.


I am pretty sure that if he tried to do that, teams would then just play off him even more than they do. The guy is 5/34 from 3 in his four-year career, and his career FT% is .597. Putting all the weirdness and noise aside, those are ofc the actual issues with Simmons, and they are significant. Simmons would have been a big star in 1972 or 1982. Now, he is just a good player with some very large flaws. Simmons' career USG is 21.5. I do not think that jacking it up to the mid-30s would work for him.
   4819. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 08, 2021 at 09:41 PM (#6044930)
I am pretty sure that if he tried to do that, teams would then just play off him even more than they do. The guy is 5/34 from 3 in his four-year career, and his career FT% is .597. Putting all the weirdness and noise aside, those are ofc the actual issues with Simmons, and they are significant. Simmons would have been a big star in 1972 or 1982. Now, he is just a good player with some very large flaws. Simmons' career USG is 21.5. I do not think that jacking it up to the mid-30s would work for him.

but it would be funny...and funny is better than whatever the #### this is.
   4820. asinwreck Posted: October 08, 2021 at 09:50 PM (#6044932)
Nash ending this Nets game with minutes for the rookies, so Cam Thomas has the opportunity to close the game with a long two and a three. Nets grab a 4-point lead in the last minute.
   4821. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: October 08, 2021 at 09:55 PM (#6044933)
Between that score despite the grab bag lineup the Bucks tossed out there against a Nets club playing a lot of regulars and the Bulls OBLITERATING their first two opponents, I’m starting to think that preseason may not have much predictive power..
   4822. asinwreck Posted: October 08, 2021 at 10:40 PM (#6044937)
Both games had key players out (Giannis, Zion, Ingram), too. Mills looked good, though.

The Bulls are playing competent team defense and distributing well, especially when Caruso and Ball are in the backcourt together. I will predict from these two games that fourth quarter collapses will be a lot less frequent than they were last season.
   4823. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: October 09, 2021 at 04:01 AM (#6044957)

·
10h
BREAKING: Jaylen Brown has tested positive for coronavirus, via
@ShamsCharania

   4824. smileyy Posted: October 09, 2021 at 04:02 PM (#6045026)
I'm back with your occasional promoting of the WNBA: Game 5 of the semifinals between Phoenix and Las Vegas was a real barn burner and the best basketball game I've seen in a while.

Bonus for watching if you like to bag on Bill Laimbeer who got outcoached last night.
   4825. asinwreck Posted: October 10, 2021 at 03:54 PM (#6045137)
Phoenix came out in Game 1 of the finals like a house on fire. After the 25 best players in WNBA history posed for a photograph, the Sky have dominated. Currently on a 17-0 run.
   4826. asinwreck Posted: October 10, 2021 at 04:49 PM (#6045154)
For a team that finished the regular season at .500, the Sky are playing spectacular basketball. May Candace Parker stay healthy for the rest of the series.
   4827. smileyy Posted: October 10, 2021 at 04:55 PM (#6045155)
I think the Sky were something like 1-10 without Parker, so yeah, they're a championship caliber team with her in the lineup. It was a kind of weird year in the W with respect to injuries.
   4828. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 10, 2021 at 09:34 PM (#6045243)
John Gonzalez @JohnGonzalez
whenever I get bummed about Philly sports I remember the Giants and Jets and Mets exist

   4829. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 11, 2021 at 01:57 PM (#6045498)
After being fined for missing Philadelphia's opening preseason loss to the Toronto Raptors — a penalty of roughly $360,000 — Simmons' representation had another discussion with the players association in which it was reiterated they would be unable to recoup the money being deducted from the $8.25 million sitting in escrow, sources say, and it was communicated to the Sixers that these early fines were perhaps higher than they expected. Each game missed (including preseason) will incur a similar penalty, subtracting from that $8.25 million figure in the process.
...
Following the phone call to the NBPA and discussions between both sides last week, the Sixers increasingly prepared for Simmons to show up for work. That read looks to have been correct.
...
With four years left on his contract, Simmons' position was and is being closely monitored up to the league office level, where the Sixers have had some degree of support to hold firm
   4830. spivey 2 Posted: October 11, 2021 at 02:04 PM (#6045501)
@kmedved

I've looked at the predictive power of preseason results before, and there's real value here.

I'll do full writeup/tweet thread on the methodology, but a +32.5 preseason net rating suggests we should bump our expectation for the Bulls' regular season ratings by ~1.5 points/100.


Full thread here. Kostya Medvedovsky is the creator of DARKO, who I started following on Twitter after the discussion of the uber-stats.
   4831. aberg Posted: October 11, 2021 at 03:17 PM (#6045512)
When they say the Sixers and Klutch are "progressing" in talks, what are they talking about?
   4832. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 11, 2021 at 03:27 PM (#6045514)
It's some combination of progressing towards convincing Simmons to return to the Sixers fold and progressing towards making it look like that is a real possibility to put some pressure on the teams who want to trade for him, right?
   4833. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 11, 2021 at 04:10 PM (#6045527)
Torn thumb ligament for THT is requiring surgery per Shams.
   4834. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 11, 2021 at 07:16 PM (#6045565)
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!! it's happening (maybe...)!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tom Moore @TomMoorePhilly
#NBA story: Ben Simmons could be returning to the #Sixers as soon as later this week: bit.ly/30i9gsc pic.twitter.com/gM95hrb5av
Kyle Neubeck @KyleNeubeck
Doc Rivers on todays Ben reports: “We’ve said from day one what we’ve wanted…other than that, there’s nothing to report…our position hasn’t changed at all.” Rivers says he has only talked to Rich Paul still, no dialogue with Ben
Justin Grasso @JGrasso_
Doc Rivers doesn't believe there will be a locker room issue if Ben Simmons returns. Says the #Sixers just want to win and Simmons helps with that.
Keith Pompey @PompeyOnSixers
Here’s a picture of the for sale sign outside Ben Simmons’ residence in Moorestown. pic.twitter.com/KWIIgTLPsK
   4835. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 11, 2021 at 07:20 PM (#6045567)
When they say the Sixers and Klutch are "progressing" in talks, what are they talking about?
my guess is klutch wants the sixers to stop fining ben simmons for missing preseason games/refusing to report to training camp while they're trying to figure out the logistics of pulling his head out of his ass.
   4836. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 11, 2021 at 08:23 PM (#6045583)
Derek Bodner @DerekBodnerNBA
The Sixers are shooting 5-6 from 3-point range to jump out to a 24-14 lead midway through the first quarter. Not gonna get too deep on analyzing this one, because nobody is available and it's preseason, but this is about the most spacing Embiid has had around him since 2017-18.
Ky Carlin @Ky_Carlin
This is my 1st time seeing Kevin Durant in person and all I can say is wow. Watching him on TV does not do him justice.
Derek Bodner @DerekBodnerNBA
Furkan Korkmaz bringing the ball up the court and Georges Niang defending James Harden. Preseason basketball!

   4837. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: October 11, 2021 at 09:44 PM (#6045614)
woj reported that simmons is in philly and has taken a covid test, per nba protocols...
   4838. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 11, 2021 at 10:57 PM (#6045689)
Justin Grasso @JGrasso_
Joel Embiid says he hasn't talked to Ben Simmons since last season ended. Says he tried but it wasn't successful #Sixers
Kyle Neubeck @KyleNeubeck
Embiid on the Simmons situation: “I’m happy that things have resolved and we can move on and try to be a better team”
Justin Grasso @JGrasso_
"It's good for the organization. It's something that everybody wanted." - Joel Embiid on hearing that Ben Simmons is back in Philly.
Noah Levick @NoahLevick
Doc Rivers jokes: “I’m going to call Woj and find out what’s going on.” Rivers says it “sounds like” Simmons will be at practice once he clears COVID protocol, but no additional details.

Noah Levick @NoahLevick
Joel Embiid (with a smile) on Andre Drummond: “He’s a great guy. Obviously I always kicked his butt, and he knows it, too.” Embiid says he has a “lot of respect” for Drummond and thinks he’ll be key for the Sixers this year.
   4839. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 11, 2021 at 11:20 PM (#6045697)
Incredible stuff here.
Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn
Sources: Sixers were unaware Simmons was flying into Philadelphia today. The organization was in constant contact with agent Rich Paul, but Simmons simply showed up at arena to take his Covid test prior to Sixers-Nets tip -- and that's when team officials knew he was in town.
   4840. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 12, 2021 at 01:01 AM (#6045709)
Kyle Neubeck @KyleNeubeck
Woj on Sportscenter with @notthefakeSVP on how things went down with Simmons tonight: “Elton Brand got a text saying, ‘Hey, Ben’s outside the building’”

   4841. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 12, 2021 at 01:02 AM (#6045710)
is anyone else glad that all of the drama is over now that ben simmons has shown up? surely, this won't carry over in any way into the regular season.
   4842. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 12, 2021 at 01:17 AM (#6045715)
Surely this is the sedate resolution to the whole affair.
   4843. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 12, 2021 at 01:34 AM (#6045716)
Surely this is the sedate resolution to the whole affair.
for sure.
   4844. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 12, 2021 at 01:58 AM (#6045719)
woj at the end of his SVP interview:

this is going to be fascinating how this plays out
you don't say....
   4845. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 12, 2021 at 08:11 AM (#6045740)
All the pieces are in place for the Championship run. The fans will embrace Ben and there will be no meltdowns during the season at all.
   4846. spivey 2 Posted: October 12, 2021 at 08:43 AM (#6045745)
Seems like Simmons got cold feet when the money started getting taken away, which doesn't surprise me at all. $360k/game is some serious ####### money.

Will be interesting to see what happens now. Does he Harden it up, or does he play hard. Unless he full on tries to sabotage the team, I think he's best chance of getting traded is playing well.
   4847. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: October 12, 2021 at 08:48 AM (#6045746)
Seems like Simmons got cold feet when the money started getting taken away, which doesn't surprise me at all. $360k/game is some serious ####### money.

Will be interesting to see what happens now. Does he Harden it up, or does he play hard. Unless he full on tries to sabotage the team, I think he's best chance of getting traded is playing well.


When I heard on the Lowe Post last week Bobby Marks say that Simmons is now starting to lose actual dollars that he won't get back under any circumstances I was really a bit surprised. Maybe he was, too!

Can he come back, practice for a couple of days, and then start to suffer lower back pain?
   4848. asinwreck Posted: October 12, 2021 at 09:23 AM (#6045750)
Agreed. This is going to be a great season for this thread. Or the next version of this thread.

Incredible stuff here.

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn
Sources: Sixers were unaware Simmons was flying into Philadelphia today. The organization was in constant contact with agent Rich Paul, but Simmons simply showed up at arena to take his Covid test prior to Sixers-Nets tip -- and that's when team officials knew he was in town.
   4849. jmurph Posted: October 12, 2021 at 10:15 AM (#6045758)
I think turning Simmons into "On court question mark PLUS malcontent" was probably not the right move by his agents, all things considered.
   4850. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 12, 2021 at 10:31 AM (#6045761)
It is now a nailed on certainty that Simmons will end up in Minnesota. The universe can not possibly abide any franchise going squirreller that the Wovles.
   4851. spivey 2 Posted: October 12, 2021 at 11:07 AM (#6045765)
Brooklyn GM Sean Marks announced that Kyrie will no longer practice or play with the team until he's able to be a "full participant".

Yes! SPROTS!
   4852. tshipman Posted: October 12, 2021 at 11:08 AM (#6045767)
Will be interesting to see what happens now. Does he Harden it up, or does he play hard. Unless he full on tries to sabotage the team, I think he's best chance of getting traded is playing well.


The Harden playbook was to alternate playing hard and not giving a ####. I think that's probably the move for Simmons as well.
   4853. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 12, 2021 at 11:10 AM (#6045768)
Neither the 76ers nor Simmons is coming across very well in this mess. There is no way both sides (and the "third" side, whoever ends up being a trading partner to resolve it) are ending up happy.
   4854. The Original SJ Posted: October 12, 2021 at 11:12 AM (#6045770)
Hello everyone. It is SJ from the lounge again, just wanted to bump the lounge NBA fantasy league, which is as hands off as possible. Here is the lounge invite.

Playing NBA fantasy in 2021 now that Melo is a Laker allows me to finally use the great fantasy team name, Carmelo-By-The-Sea.
   4855. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: October 12, 2021 at 11:13 AM (#6045771)
I was going to say I can't wait until games start so I have things to watch and think about besides Kyrie and Ben Simmons drama, but I watched the Pistons preseason game and them starting back up may actually make things less fun.

Playoffs in 6 months, right?
   4856. jmurph Posted: October 12, 2021 at 11:16 AM (#6045772)
Hardwood Paroxysm @HPbasketball
I want to recognize how funny it is that the Nets are barring a player who didn’t consult with them before deciding to sign with them from playing for them. I wholly support and applaud the move. It’s just funny.
   4857. The Original SJ Posted: October 12, 2021 at 11:18 AM (#6045773)
I think the Pistons are a fun and interesting team. They are not close to winning, I don't think, but Cunningham/Bey/Grant/Stewart could be a nice core in a couple years.
   4858. aberg Posted: October 12, 2021 at 11:30 AM (#6045778)
I think the Pistons are a fun and interesting team. They are not close to winning, I don't think, but Cunningham/Bey/Grant/Stewart could be a nice core in a couple years.


Yeah, definitely more interesting than the sludge of building around Blake. In a way, it reminds me of where the Hawks were a couple years ago. In another way, it reminds me of where the Magic were a couple years ago. So we'll see!
   4859. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 12, 2021 at 11:31 AM (#6045779)
Brooklyn GM Sean Marks announced that Kyrie will no longer practice or play with the team until he's able to be a "full participant".

I know it's a coincidence that it happens right after Simmons went back to the Sixers, but it's still kinda funny.

BREAKING: Jaylen Brown has tested positive for coronavirus, via @ShamsCharania

I was honestly surprised and disappointed to learn Brown was vaccine hesitant.
   4860. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: October 12, 2021 at 11:33 AM (#6045780)
I think the Pistons are a fun and interesting team. They are not close to winning, I don't think, but Cunningham/Bey/Grant/Stewart could be a nice core in a couple years.


I'm personally starting to have doubts across the board, there, to one degree or another. I know this season isn't about wins or losses, but do hope those four all progress past my personal (probably pessimistic) expectations.
   4861. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 12, 2021 at 11:36 AM (#6045782)
@kmedved

I've looked at the predictive power of preseason results before, and there's real value here.

I'll do full writeup/tweet thread on the methodology, but a +32.5 preseason net rating suggests we should bump our expectation for the Bulls' regular season ratings by ~1.5 points/100.


This was interesting to follow, though maybe he should have held off on adjusting the Bulls expectation until after all the preseason games. They won again Sunday, but it wasn't nearly as laughable so surely that preseason net rating has already gone down quite a bit.

The only real thing I'm taking away from the preseason is that that the Bulls will be a much more entertaining team this year than anytime the past couple of decades (the Thibs era was much better, but also those games were not exactly great entertainment all the time). So far, it looks like Ball is a great fit (I'm still very much in the TBD camp on DeRozan, even ignoring his ridiculous contract and the horrible trade to get him), and the middle to bottom of the roster just makes more sense than anytime in years. The ceiling for this team still is 4th seed at best, while the most likely outcome is somewhere in the 6-10 seed range.
   4862. jmurph Posted: October 12, 2021 at 11:36 AM (#6045783)
I was honestly surprised and disappointed to learn Brown was vaccine hesitant.

He's been weirdly vague but I read this and think he's almost certainly vaccinated:
“The WNBA is 99% vaccinated and I think the NBA is over 90%,” Brown said about midway through the video below. “I think the NBA and the [players] union have done a great job. In certain states and certain entities, they’re not at that percentage level.”

But here is the ambiguous part.

“Everybody has their own thoughts about it,” Brown said about getting the vaccine. “Personally, I have.”

Does “Personally, I have” mean he has been vaccinated or that he has his own thoughts about vaccination.


He added, “My closest family members are vaccinated. I have family members who are vaccinated that are concerned about getting a booster shot or multiple booster shots. And I have some people in my family who aren’t vaccinated at all.”
   4863. spivey 2 Posted: October 12, 2021 at 11:36 AM (#6045784)
I'm so excited for this season. Wide open in the West, an eclectic mix of teams in the East, and with Milwaukee having won a chip, there's less of that "Championship or the season is a disappointment" vibe that can be both stressful and bordering not fun as a fan of a contender.

I still think the Nets are the favorite, even if they get nothing for Kyrie and he doesn't play a minute. Harden and Durant are top 10 guys, fit well, they still have a bunch of shooting, I like their bigs well enough. They could use one more wing but they'll likely get their pick of the best wing on the buyout market before the playoffs.
   4864. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 12, 2021 at 11:43 AM (#6045788)
Donate to Give Smart, voting started in VA @BobbyBigWheel ·35m

As a longtime Brooklyn Nets fan I am now angrily composting my Kyrie Irving jersey


I laughed
   4865. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 12, 2021 at 11:45 AM (#6045789)
He's been weirdly vague but I read this and think he's almost certainly vaccinated:

I hope that's true. Most of the stories that talked about him getting COVID included his version of the "it's a personal choice" quote.
   4866. The Original SJ Posted: October 12, 2021 at 11:55 AM (#6045794)
I'm personally starting to have doubts across the board, there, to one degree or another. I know this season isn't about wins or losses, but do hope those four all progress past my personal (probably pessimistic) expectations.


I have a certain amount of faith in Troy Weaver. For better or worse, he doesn't have anyone left for the roster he inherited. He made a name for himself at Syracuse, Utah and OKC for identifying talent and then forcefully championing them.
   4867. The Original SJ Posted: October 12, 2021 at 11:59 AM (#6045796)
I'm so excited for this season. Wide open in the West, an eclectic mix of teams in the East, and with Milwaukee having won a chip, there's less of that "Championship or the season is a disappointment" vibe that can be both stressful and bordering not fun as a fan of a contender.


I am super excited about this season. There are many teams I hadn't even thought about in years past which could be excessively fun. Is there a team more fun to watch than the Hornets? Even the Wizards are interesting.
   4868. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 12, 2021 at 12:10 PM (#6045798)
BTW, I was shocked the other day to learn Rubio is on the Cavs.
   4869. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 12, 2021 at 12:20 PM (#6045800)
BTW, I was shocked the other day to learn Rubio is on the Cavs.

Probably not as shocked as Rubio was.
   4870. asinwreck Posted: October 12, 2021 at 12:24 PM (#6045802)
The reunion with Kevin Love was irresistible. Now they just need to get Michael Beasley and Darko.
   4871. tshipman Posted: October 12, 2021 at 12:50 PM (#6045811)
Is there a case that this doesn't hurt the Nets that much?

Like even before the chemistry concern stuff. Patty Mills is a better fit with the rest of the roster.
   4872. spivey 2 Posted: October 12, 2021 at 12:53 PM (#6045814)
This was interesting to follow, though maybe he should have held off on adjusting the Bulls expectation until after all the preseason games. They won again Sunday, but it wasn't nearly as laughable so surely that preseason net rating has already gone down quite a bit.


Not really. Unless the argument is that the first 2 games aren't representative of the overall sample of pre-season games. The formula he was using is:

(preseason_mov*preseason_games + prior_expectation*X)/(preseason_games + X), where when "[a]nalyzing data from 2006-2019, I got a value of X of about 41."

So, in this situation, the MOV is weighted by the number of preseason games it represents, which makes sense. So going from a 32.5 Net Rating or MOV (which was actually 36) over the first 2 games to a MOV of 22 over 3 games doesn't adjust things much. See below.


After 2 games: (32.5*2+0*41)/(2+41)=1.51 (it's 1.67 if you use the MOV of 36 which they had, but he was replying to a Net Rating post)

After 3 games: (22*3+0*41)/(3+41)=1.5

If they'd won the 3rd game by 32.5 points, the expected adjustment by analyzing the 2006-2019 data would have gone all the way up to 2.22.

This makes sense. Since there appears to be some real predictive power from pre-season, each game is a data point that provides additional predictive value. I chose an expected MOV of the Bulls of 0 because it makes the math easier and I think is roughly correct, but you can play with that to see that the better you are, the less it adjusts your expected MOV. And the worse you are, the more it adjusts your MOV.
   4873. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: October 12, 2021 at 01:08 PM (#6045821)
4871/tship: I've always been a Kyrie doubter but he's a pretty big upgrade on Mills on the court plus that leaves you Mills for the bench.
   4874. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 12, 2021 at 01:11 PM (#6045824)
This all unfolded rather quickly Monday, with strangely worded reports surfacing in the morning of a pending agreement between the 76ers and Rich Paul, CEO of Klutch Sports and Simmons’s representative, to bring Simmons physically into the city of Philadelphia. The NBA’s scoopbrained weirdos made what is either a conspicuous effort to avoid saying that Simmons would be returning to the 76ers’ actual basketball operation, or simply were undone by their own bizarre writing habits.
...
This is all super normal stuff, a general manager unexpectedly learning via text message that his disgruntled superstar point guard has flown across the country and is presently standing outside the arena in the dark, waiting for someone to come down and let him inside for a mandatory COVID-19 screening, but without any obvious indication that he intends to stick around and play basketball.

   4875. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: October 12, 2021 at 01:24 PM (#6045829)
mann signed a 2/22 extension with lac
   4876. tshipman Posted: October 12, 2021 at 01:34 PM (#6045831)
Good point from Duncan:


Nate Duncan
@NateDuncanNBA
·
3m
The Terance Mann contract is first I can recall where a second round/undrafted player on a 4-year min contract w/ team option got extended 2 years early. Clipps could have played it out with 2 more years of minimum salary and made him unrestricted, or made him RFA after this year
   4877. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: October 12, 2021 at 02:00 PM (#6045835)
Durant has only played 35 games the last two seasons and Harden missed 42 games the last two seasons. Harden also missed sometime in the playoffs and played at less than 100%. Kyrie did shot 50/40/90 last year so he was pretty efficient as well.

I think the Nets can manage with one of their Big 3 out but it seems pretty likely at one of them was going to miss significant time this year even before everything that is going on with Kyrie.
   4878. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 12, 2021 at 02:29 PM (#6045837)
I still think Kyrie ends up playing this year for the Nets.

The road we get there, no clue.
   4879. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 12, 2021 at 02:37 PM (#6045838)
There is a world where this all ends up amounting to Kyrie taking the first few months of the season off and thereby being fresh and healthy enough to stay hale and hearty through a deep playoff run, which is not a guarantee given the knee fun he's had. We might live in that world, but I don't know that I'd bet on it.
   4880. asinwreck Posted: October 12, 2021 at 03:45 PM (#6045849)
Yeah, I would not be surprised to see Kyrie get vaccinated around New Year's. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised about anything involving Kyrie, so that seems possible.
   4881. aberg Posted: October 12, 2021 at 04:30 PM (#6045863)
I know I shouldn't try to psychoanalyze players, but something about Kyrie forces me to do it. It seems to me that he pathologically wants to be perceived as the smartest person around and every decision has to show the public how smart he is. If he gets vaccinated now, he's basically admitting that the people who told him to get vaccinated months ago were right and his revolutionary, brilliant skepticism wasn't warranted. I think he'll eventually end up with some other kind of treatment or a vaccine from another country just to perform how clever and different he is.
   4882. spivey 2 Posted: October 12, 2021 at 04:48 PM (#6045867)
Kyrie Irving reminds me of the Timecube guy.
   4883. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 12, 2021 at 05:12 PM (#6045868)
Eh, I don't know much about him. He seems like a moderate flake, in an industry where being a flake is somewhat acceptable.
   4884. tshipman Posted: October 12, 2021 at 06:00 PM (#6045874)
Eh, I don't know much about him. He seems like a moderate flake, in an industry where being a flake is somewhat acceptable.


... you think the Timecube guy is a moderate flake?

Were you educated stupid?
   4885. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 12, 2021 at 06:04 PM (#6045875)
Eh, I don't know much about him. He seems like a moderate flake, in an industry where being a flake is somewhat acceptable.

the problem isn't that kyrie is a flake (but he is); the problem is that he's a nutter.

and even that's not entirely fair. if you listened to what he said about restarting the NBA last year, it was thoughtful, well-reasoned, and it's hard to say that he wasn't right about the NBA (and other sports) coming back having the side-effect of sucking the air out of the black lives matter movement when it was gaining mainstream traction.


but then there's this ####, where he dedicates that same level of thoughtfulness to proving that the easter bunny has a rainbow colored cloaca. it's deeply ####### weird.
   4886. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: October 12, 2021 at 06:06 PM (#6045876)
To the extent that not showing up underscored how seriously Simmons meant what he said, it doesn’t seem to have actually done anything to push the Sixers closer to giving him the exit he wanted.

Those doing the describing can present Simmons’s two-week delay in reporting as “something that almost never happens in the NBA,” as they do in Woj’s rendering, because it’s true. Take it a half-step further, though, and you see that holdouts almost never happen in the NBA because, y’know, holding out means you don’t get paid.


   4887. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 12, 2021 at 06:18 PM (#6045880)
With the necessary caveats about how we don't actually know these men and public persona != personality, for my money aberg has it. Kyrie seems like a pretty smart guy, and an independent thinker for better (he has done a lot of good work quietly around black farming, Native American rights, and a variety of other causes worldwide) and worse (Covid, flat earth, &c), but also he seems exhaustingly dedicated to the narcissistic task of proving to you that he is the smartest man in the room whether or not he is before anything else. A lot of the media friction he has gotten into stems less from what he is saying, apart from conspiratorial stances, and more from the arrogance with which he says it and his baseline assumption that if you don't understand his point it's your fault, not his. (If we want to further psychoanalyze players, I have figured a large portion of why Jaylen Brown and Kyrie never really gelled is that Jaylen Brown seems very smart in a way that seems like it would have been threatening to Kyrie. But again, I don't know these dudes at all.)
   4888. tshipman Posted: October 12, 2021 at 06:36 PM (#6045883)
If anyone is interested in hearing the 150th percentile projection for everyone associated with the Miami Heat, you should check out the free Dunc'd On episode with Ethan Skolnick. It's like a 2+ hour(!) audition for Skolnick to be hired by the Heat's PR department.


Michael Schwartz of Phoenix, not to be outdone, predicts 58 wins for Phoenix.

"I don't see any candidates for regression on this team!"--a literal quote.
   4889. jmurph Posted: October 12, 2021 at 07:35 PM (#6045902)
You guys are being kind and everything about Kyrie, but this is a man who looks at a global pandemic in which the number one most urgent priority is getting people vaccinated, and says I need to speak up for those who don’t want to take this incredibly easy step that would help save lives. #### him.

(Shams has a new article about this, in case this is unclear. The phrase “voice for the voiceless” is featured.)
   4890. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 12, 2021 at 07:44 PM (#6045904)
Multiple sources with direct knowledge of Irving’s decision have told The Athletic that Irving is not anti-vaccine and that his stance is that he is upset that people are losing their jobs due to vaccine mandates. It’s a stance that Irving has explained to close teammates. To him, this is about a grander fight than the one on the court and Irving is challenging a perceived control of society and people’s livelihood, according to sources with knowledge of Irving’s mindset. It is a decision that he believes he is capable to make given his current life dynamics. “Kyrie wants to be a voice for the voiceless,” one source said.

So he's not anti-vax, he just doesn't believe in public health?
   4891. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 12, 2021 at 07:56 PM (#6045911)
That is exactly the perfect Kyrie position. Just *chef's kiss* perfect.
   4892. asinwreck Posted: October 12, 2021 at 11:54 PM (#6046002)
He just wants Mary Mallon to keep her job cooking breakfast. Who could have a problem with that?
   4893. jmurph Posted: October 13, 2021 at 09:20 AM (#6046043)
I was kicking around not getting league pass this year, then I just scrolled through Zach Lowe's League Pass columns and realized how many teams there are that I'm excited about watching and now I'm about to shell out $200 again. Blurgh.
   4894. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 13, 2021 at 10:36 AM (#6046051)
Ramona Shelburne @ramonashelburne ·7h

Ben Simmons passed his physical and held a brief meeting with the Sixers front office on Tuesday, but remains ineligible to participate in team-related activities until Friday due to NBA health and safety protocols, sources told ESPN.


Nate Duncan @NateDuncanNBA ·7h

As I speculated on the pod with @DannyLeroux today, it appears based on reporting by @ramonashelburne that the delay in Ben Simmons passing health & safety protocols is due to not being vaccinated.


Hmmm...that's quite a limb to go out and guess about, but yeah, that would seem to also make sense.
   4895. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 13, 2021 at 10:52 AM (#6046056)
I was kicking around not getting league pass this year, then I just scrolled through Zach Lowe's League Pass columns and realized how many teams there are that I'm excited about watching and now I'm about to shell out $200 again. Blurgh.

I miss reading Lowe since he's now behind the paywall. I'm so glad they made those columns free, they're my favorite thing that he writes.

I see he think similarly of the Bulls entertainment value...now that Neil Funk has retired the broadcasts are so much better and I can truly enjoy and appreciate Stacey King again. Adam Amin is awesome, and he did a really good job this week on the White Sox/Astros games for FS1 with AJ Pierzakasdfski and Adam Wainwright. He's a future broadcasting star and the Bulls are lucky to have him.
   4896. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 13, 2021 at 10:55 AM (#6046058)
I re-upped League Pass. I'm super excited, although my previous solution for geo-unblocking blackout games doesn't seem to work any more. If anyone has an idea how to do this, I would be All Ears -- I am happy to pay the League for the right to stream the games, but the blackouts in Canada are brutal.
   4897. asinwreck Posted: October 13, 2021 at 11:03 AM (#6046064)
Agreed about Adam Amin. The Amin/Pierzynski/Wainwright booth seemed to actually enjoy the games they called, which is rare for 2021 baseball on national television. Upgrading from late-era Funk to Amin ranks with Benetti supplanting Harrelson as the most happy surprises involving Reinsdorf teams in the past decade.
   4898. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: October 13, 2021 at 11:17 AM (#6046071)
please forgive the baseball content but - jason benetti is wonderful, what a joy to listen to.
   4899. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 13, 2021 at 11:51 AM (#6046076)
Sports Illustrated @SInow ·2h

Running the Trail Blazers and Jordan Brand, Larry Miller rose to the top of the basketball world.

But, he tells @HowardBeck, he's lived in constant fear of his deepest secret being exposed: that, as a teen, he shot and killed a man. https://buff.ly/3AwUkmo


Now that's how you do clickbait. Damn.
   4900. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 13, 2021 at 11:54 AM (#6046079)
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